GEOG1022

Lecture 4: Global agricultural issues

Peng Zhu, Department of Geography

Room 1005, Jockey Club Tower,
Centennial Campus
Email: [email protected]
Previous lecture review

2
 The Carbon Cycle
Evaporation
Carbon Carbon In
In Ocean Water Atmosphere
Dissolution

Decomposition
Photosynthesis Combustion
Respiration

Plants Soil Fossil

Phytoplankton Marine Sediment Fuels
Consumption Lithification
“Biomass” “Organic Matter”

Boxes are carbon pools Arrows are carbon fluxes

3
The major reservoirs of carbon

Boxes are carbon pools Arrows are carbon fluxes

4
Carbon cycle and climate change

• The Carbon Cycle is

important because its
disruption is what causes
global warming.
• Because humans burn so
many fossil fuels for
industries and power, too
much CO2 accumulates in
the atmosphere, and the
CO2 traps heat inside the
planet, causing global
temperatures to rise

5
Climate-carbon feedback

6
Factors affecting Photosynthesis
1. Light intensity
2. Wavelength (color of light)
3. Carbon dioxide concentration
4. Temperature
5. Water supply
6. Nitrogen Concentration

7
Learning objectives

I. Terminology related with food security

II. Challenging factors in achieving food security
III. Climate-smart agriculture

8
Where food is grown?
Where food is grown - climate

Temperate climate Lowland tropical Sub tropical climate

climate
UK/Europe Africa
Northern China South and South East Asia
Canada Asia

Wheat Paddy rice Sorghum

Who Produces What? Key Agriculture Stats
Crops for food versus for animal feed and fuel
 Global cropland expansion and intensification

Image credit: radicalcartography Tilman et al., 2012, Nature

13
Increasing cropping frequency
Yield potential and yield gap
Yield potential and yield gap
Yield-limiting management factors for corn
Yield-limiting management factors for corn
Challenges in agriculture production

19
Fertilizers and aquatic ecosystems

Eutrophication
Pesticides and ecosystems

 Cancers
 Reproductive harms
 Nervous system
impacts
 Problems in agriculture
Pesticides and ecosystems
 Problems in agriculture
Water resource depletion

Lowering of the Water Table

Climate change
Cropland in 2050: 100% increase
Percent change in drought
No change
conditions relative to 2000.
100% decrease
Sources of GHG emissions
Which foods cause the most greenhouse gas emissions?
Food security and climate change

27
 Definition: FOOD SECURITY
1. Physical AVAILABILITY of food. Food availability addresses the “supply side” of food security
and is determined by the level of food production, stock levels and net trade.
2. Economic and physical ACCESS to food. An adequate supply of food at the national or
international level does not in itself guarantee household level food security. Concerns about
insufficient food access have resulted in a greater policy focus on incomes, expenditure,
markets and prices in achieving food security objectives.
3. Food UTILIZATION. Utilization is commonly understood as the way the body makes the most of
various nutrients in the food. Sufficient energy and nutrient intake by individuals is the result of
good care and feeding practices, food preparation, diversity of the diet and intra-household
distribution of food. Combined with good biological utilization of food consumed, this
determines the nutritional status of individuals.
4. STABILITY of the other three dimensions over time. Even if your food intake is adequate today,
you are still considered to be food insecure if you have inadequate access to food on a periodic
basis, risking a deterioration of your nutritional status. Adverse weather conditions, political
instability, or economic factors (unemployment, rising food prices) may have an impact on your
food security status.
28
Major Challenges

Production-slow rate of growth of food production is adversely affecting the

supply of food grains
Consumption-increasing consumption and wastages are putting pressures on food
grains stocks
Distribution -bottlenecks pose threats to its availability even in normal times
Politics -political Issues also affecting food chains
Major Challenges-Production
Decrease in cultivated area-urbanization, industrialization and
infrastructural projects on lands used for agriculture
Degradation of arable lands due to bad agricultural and irrigation
practices
Stagnant yields due to less than adequate resource allocation for
agricultural R&D
Climate change and environmental threats
Increased cultivation of Biofuels crops on areas previously used for food
crops cultivation
Is there enough crop land?

 huge potential: 4.2 billion ha

 1.60 billion ha in use today, increase to 1.67 billion ha by 2050
 But land reserves unevenly distributed and 800 mha covered by
forests, 200 mha in protected areas, 60 mha in settlements

Potential cropland distribution

Dynamics in cropland
Is there enough yield potential?
 Yield growth: considerable slow down: 0.8% p.a. in the
future compared to 1.7% in the past Yield potentials
 Still considerable untapped/bridgeable yield potentials
 Intensification possible to narrow yield gaps
 Technology potential to raise yield ceilings
Yield stagnation
Yield stagnation
Yield potential and yield gap
Yield trends insufficient to meet demand by 2050

Solid line : historical yield trend

Dashed line: expected yield trend to meet food demand
Major Challenges-Consumption
Increasing population- sheer number of people demanding food is
increasing

Growing prosperity-more meat items in the domestic menu which needs

more food grains

Changing food habits-urbanization needs more processed food which

consumes more food

Wastages- over eating, throwing away of food cooked more than the
needs and food getting expired in the domestic fridges/chain stores
Agriculture & Climate Change: A three-fold relationship

• Agriculture as a contributor to Climate Change

• Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture
• Agriculture as a potential moderator of Climate
Change
How ACC has impacted global agriculture productivity?
Global agricultural productivity

Anthropogenic climate change (ACC)

has reduced global agricultural
productivity by about 21% since 1961
CO2 increase impacts on agriculture productivity
Temperature impacts on agriculture productivity
Water availability impacts on agriculture productivity
Harvest area ratio

Agroecosystem total production

U.S. Wheat harvest area ratio (1980-2018)
𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑑𝑢𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 = 𝑌𝑖𝑒𝑙𝑑 ∗ 𝐻𝑎𝑟𝑣𝑒𝑠𝑡𝑒𝑑 𝑎𝑟𝑒𝑎
= 𝑌𝑖𝑒𝑙𝑑 ∗ ∗ 𝐶𝑟𝑜𝑝𝑙𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑎𝑟𝑒𝑎

HAR

Cropland abandonment

What’s the consequence of cropland abandonment for crop production?

45
Trend and inter-annual variability of HAR

Winter wheat harvest area ratio and yield in US

46
Trend and inter-annual variability of HAR

High price Low price

HAR trend Price

Price HAR variability Yield
(***)

High
Oil crisis

Harvest area ratio

(***)

Low

Low price Higher coupling of HAR and Yield 47

HAR response exacerbates crop loss

48
Climatic Wheat Domestic use
change yield
Feed use Food use

 HAR is related with profitability and is

Wheat Farmer Total jointly determined by yield and price
Price Profitability Production  Ignoring HAR response will
underestimate climate damage to crop
production by half
Export
 Targeting at farmer profitability to mitigate
Planted Harvest Harvested
area area ratio area crop production loss due to climate
change
Abandoned
area

49
Implications of crop distribution shift
Soybean distribution shift and its climate implication
Soybean distribution shift and its climate implication
Soybean planted area fraction vs. climate potential
Climate adaptation in cropping system

Soil management
Irrigation
Climate Change

Cropping pattern
Breeding

Farmer management practices Climate adaptation

54
Adaptation potential of grain filling extension

Corn growth phenology

GFP

Vegetative period (VP) Grain filling period (GFP)

Emergence Silking Maturity

55
Adaptation potential of grain filling extension

𝑽𝒆𝒈𝒆𝒕𝒂𝒕𝒊𝒐𝒏 𝒊𝒏𝒅𝒆𝒙

𝑽𝒆𝒈𝒆𝒕𝒂𝒕𝒊𝒐𝒏 𝒊𝒏𝒅𝒆𝒙
GFP GFP
Climate warming

𝑻𝒊𝒎𝒆 𝑻𝒊𝒎𝒆

New variety

𝑽𝒆𝒈𝒆𝒕𝒂𝒕𝒊𝒐𝒏 𝒊𝒏𝒅𝒆𝒙
GFP

𝑻𝒊𝒎𝒆
56
Adaptation potential of multiple cropping
ET

Expand frost-free period

Accelerate crop development
Heat stress
ET ET More heat stress
Higher water demand

vs.

57
Global retrieval of cropping frequency
Cropping Frequency (CF)
VI

Global pattern of Cropping Frequency

 Cropland abandoned CF=0

 Single cropping CF=1
 Double cropping CF=2

58
Response of CF, CalY and CalP to temperature

59
Climate-smart agriculture

60
What is climate-smart agriculture?

• Sustainably increases productivity

• Resilience (adaptation)
• Reduces/Removes greenhouse gases (mitigation)
• Enhances achievement of national food security
CSA-three pillars

• Sustainably increasing agricultural productivity and

incomes

• Adapting and building resilience to climate change

• Reducing and/or eliminating GHG emissions

Continuous flooding vs. intermittent flooding
Crop management

• Intercropping with legumes

• New crop varieties (e.g. drought resistant)
• Improved storage and processing techniques
• Greater crop diversity
Diversifying crop systems

• Monoculture has a number of disadvantages that

result in losses
• Diversification of crop systems provides an
opportunity to introduce varieties that are more
resilient and may also provide economic benefits
Retaining soil moisture
Improving soil water holding capacity in dry areas, or draining
excess of moisture in wet areas.
Managing organic matter

• Organic matter is important for soil quality as it

controls critical soil functions
• Increasing soil organic matter in soils can
contribute to improve production and reducing
environmental impacts of agriculture
Managing organic matter
Examples

Crop residues left on soils

increase organic matter
Crop residues are the parts of
plants left in the field after the
crops have been harvested and
thrashed. Crop residues are good
sources of plant nutrients, are the
primary source of organic material
added to the soil, and are
important components for the
stability of agricultural ecosystems.
Leaving crop residues on the land
as mulch is ideal to increase
organic matter, especially in
depleted soils.
Increasing nutrient use efficiency
• More efficient application methods of fertilizers,
soil analyses, precise nutrient management and
nutrient budgets or balances contribute to deliver
nutrients according to crop demand and preserve
soil fertility, avoid pollution and reduce costs
Increasing nutrient use efficiency

Green manure
Soils in many
subsistence production
systems are depleted
and have poor nutrient
content. The use of
green manures
(involves growing a
crop that will be
worked into the soil
Green manuring in Washington State using Mustard varieties such as Oriental
mustard (Brassica juncea) and White mustard (Sinapis alba). Farmers use later) is an option to
them after wheat harvesting and before potatoes, to improve their soils and enhance soil fertility
thereby manage soil-borne pests, control wind erosion, increase infiltration
and improve crop yields. and protect soils.
Source: Green manuring with mustard - Improving an old technology.
Precision Agriculture for agricultural sustainability

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WhAfZhFxHTs
How Vertical Farming Works

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QT4TWbPLrN8