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Knowing the Odds
An Introduction to
Probability
John B. Walsh
Graduate Studies
in Mathematics
Volume 139
Preface xi
Introduction xiii
vii
viii Contents
In the long-forgotten days of pre-history, people would color peach pits dif-
ferently on the two sides, toss them in the air, and bet on the color that
came up. We, with a more advanced technology, toss coins. We flip a coin
into the air. There are only two possible outcomes, heads or tails, but until
the coin falls, we have no way of knowing which. The result of the flip may
decide a bet, it may decide which football team kicks off, which tennis player
serves, who does the dishes, or it may decide a hero’s fate.
The coin flip may be the most basic of all random experiments. If the
coin is reasonably well-made, heads is as likely as tails to occur. But. . . what
does that mean?
Suppose we flip a coin, and call “Heads” or “Tails” while it is in the
air. Coins are subject to the laws of physics. If we could measure the exact
position, velocity, and angular velocity of the coin as it left the hand—
its initial conditions—we could use Newton’s laws to predict exactly how it
would land. Of course, that measurement is impractical, but not impossible.
The point is that the result is actually determined as soon as the coin is in
the air and, in particular, it is already determined when we call it; the result
is (theoretically) known, but not to us. As far as we are concerned, it is just
as unpredictable as it was before the flip. Let us look at the physics to see
why.
The outcome is determined by the exact position, angular position, ve-
locity, and angular velocity at the time of the flip. Physicists represent these
all together as a point in what they call phase space. We can picture it as
follows.
xi
xii Preface
T
H
T
H H
T T T T
H H H H
T T T
H H H
This represents the initial condition of the coin in phase space. Some
points lead to heads, some to tails. But a small difference in initial conditions
completely changes the result. The conditions leading to heads are a union
of very small regions, which are evenly mixed up with those leading to tails.
This means that no matter how we try to toss the coin, we cannot zero
in on a particular result—our toss will be smeared out, so to speak, over the
“Heads” and “Tails” regions, and this will happen no matter how carefully
we toss it. This leads us to say things like: “Heads and tails are equally
likely,” or “Heads and tails each have probability one-half.”
Philosophers ask deep questions about the meaning of randomness and
probability. Is randomness something fundamental? Or is it just a measure
of our ignorance? Gamblers just want to know the odds.
Mathematicians by and large prefer to duck the question. If pressed,
they will admit that most probability deals with chaotic situations, like the
flip of a coin, where the seeming randomness comes from our ignorance of the
true situation. But they will then tell you that the really important thing
about randomness is that it can be measured—for probabilities measure
likelihood—and that we can construct a mathematical model which enables
us to compute all of the probabilities, and that, finally, this model is the
proper subject of study.
So you see, mathematicians side with the gamblers: they just want to
know the odds.
From now on, probability is mathematics. We will be content just to
note that it works—which is why so few casino owners go broke—and we
will leave the deeper meanings of randomness to the philosophers.
Introduction
1
Pascal and Fermat were by no means the first to study probabiity, but their work on the
“problem of points” was so much deeper than what had gone before that it is properly considered
the true beginning of the subject. See Keith Devlin’s “The Unfinished Game” [13] for an account.
2
See [22] for an English translation of Kolmogorov’s landmark paper. It showed that all of
probability theory could be regarded as a part measure theory, giving a general existence theorem
for stochastic processes (not present, alas, in this book, but see [12] or [9]) and a rigorous definition
of conditional expectations (see Chapter 8), which had previously been confined to special cases.
This was quite a change from the more intuitive approach, and it took some time to replace “could
be taken” by “is.” That was completed by Doob, culminating in his seminal book Stochastic
Processes [12].
xiii
xiv Introduction
3
On the other hand, students who take probability before measure theory have their “Aha!”
moment later, when they realize that the Lebesgue integral is nothing but an expectation.
Introduction xv
We want to introduce processes which are major building blocks of the the-
ory, and we aim the course towards Brownian motion and some of its weird
and wonderful sample path properties. Once more, this determines much
of the curriculum. We introduce the Markov property and stopping times
with a study of discrete-parameter Markov chains and random walks, in-
cluding special cases such as branching processes. Poisson and birth and
death processes introduce continuous parameter processes, which prepares
for Brownian motion and several related processes.
The one non-obvious choice is martingales. This deserves some expla-
nation. The subject was once considered esoteric, but has since shown itself
to be so useful4 that it deserves inclusion early in the curriculum. There are
two obstructions. The first is that its whole setting appears abstract, since
it uses sigma-fields to describe information. Experience has shown that it
is a mistake to try to work around this; it is better to spend the necessary
time to make the abstract concrete by showing how sigma-fields encode in-
formation, and, hopefully, make them intuitive. The second obstruction is
the lack of a general existence theorem for conditional expectations: that
requires mathematics the students will not have seen, so that the only case
in which we can actually construct conditional expectations is for discrete
sigma-fields, where we can do it by hand. It would be a pity to restrict
ourselves to this case, so we do some unashamed bootstrapping. Once we
show that our hand-constructed version satisfies the defining properties of
the general conditional expectation, we use only these properties to develop
the theory. When we have proved the necessary martingale theorems, we
can construct the conditional expectation with respect to a general sigma
field as the limit of conditional expectations on discrete sigma fields. This
gives us the desired existence theorem . . . and shows that what we did was
valid for general sigma-fields all along. We make free use of martingales in
the sequel. In particular, we show how martingale theory connects with a
certain part of mathematical finance, the option pricing, or Black-Scholes
theory.
The final chapter on Brownian motion uses most of what we have learned
to date, and could pull everything together, both mathematically and artis-
tically. It would have done so, had we been able to resist the temptation
to spoil any possible finality by showing—or at least hinting at—some of
4
The tipping point was when engineers started using martingales to solve applied problems,
and, in so doing, beat the mathematicians to some very nice theorems. The coup de grâce was
struck by the surprising realization that the celebrated Black-Scholes theory of finance, used by all
serious option-traders in financial markets was, deeply, martingale theory in disguise. See sections
9.6 and 10.10
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xvi Introduction
the large mathematical territory it opens up: white noise, stochastic inte-
grals, diffusions, financial mathematics, and probabilistic potential theory,
for example.
A last word. To teach a course with pleasure, one should learn at the
same time. Fair is fair: the students should not be the only learners. This
is automatic the first time one teaches a course, less so the third or fourth
time. So we tried to include enough sidelights and interesting byways to
allow the instructor some choice, a few topics which might be substituted at
each repetition. Most of these are starred: . In fact, we indulged ourselves
somewhat, and included personal favorites that we seldom have time to cover
in the course, such as the Wiener stochastic integral, the Langevin equation,
and the physical model of Brownian motion.
Chapter 1
Probability Spaces
It is said that the best way to enter a cold swimming pool is to dive in head
first, not to inch in one toe at a time. Let us take that advice and begin
with a splash: the basic mathematical model of probability. We will explain
the intuition behind it afterwards.
1
2 1. Probability Spaces
open intervals generate the Borel sets. Here are a few more possibilities.
Note that to prove that a class of sets generates the Borel sets, we need only
show they generate the open intervals.
Exercise 1.2. Show that the Borel sets are generated by any one of the following
classes:
(a) The closed sets.
(b) All closed intervals.
(c) All closed intervals with rational end points.
(d) All intervals of the form (a, b].
(e) All intervals of the form (−∞, x].
(f) All intervals of the form (−∞, x], where x is rational.
The Monotone Class Theorem . This section states and proves the
Monotone Class Theorem, and can be safely skipped for the moment. We
will not use it until Section 2.3. It is one of those theorems which seems very
technical. . . until it’s needed to make some otherwise-painful proof easy.
Theorem 1.5 (Monotone Class Theorem). Let F 0 be a field and G a mono-
tone class. Suppose F 0 ⊂ G. Then σ{F 0 } ⊂ G. In particular, the monotone
class and the σ-field generated by F are the same.
Proof. This proof makes extensive use of minimality. Let G be the smallest
monotone class containing F 0 . Then G ⊂ G. Since σ(F 0 ) is also a monotone
class containing F 0 , G ⊂ σ(F 0 ). We will show σ(F 0 ) = G .
Define two classes of subsets of Ω:
C 1 = {A ∈ G : A ∩ B ∈ G , ∀B ∈ F 0 } ,
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occur in its established order, must be felt to be by his permission.
To decide this, let each one suppose the case his own. Let a man
make his appearance claiming to be the Creator. We can perceive
that his mere word would never command the confidence of
intelligent practical men. Thousands of impostors have appeared and
made such claims, deceiving the weak and ignorant and disgusting
the wise.
Miracles and prophecy, then, are the only methods that we can
conceive of, that would, as our minds are now constituted, insure
belief in revelations from the Creator.
[pg 238]
The Bible is a collection of books written at different periods of the
world's history. These books profess to be records of the various
manifestations and teachings of the Creator to mankind. It is
claimed for them, that their authority is established by miracles and
prophecy, with all the evidence that is possible, so far as we can
conceive, and that there are no other books in the world having any
such evidence of authorized revelations from God.
Suppose again, that it taught that the Creator, who wrought the
attesting miracles, was a liar, and loved to deceive his creatures; this
would also destroy its reliability as a guide to truth.
Suppose again, that it taught that the Creator was a being who
preferred evil to good, and chose to have his creatures ignorant and
miserable, when he has power to make them wise and happy. This
also would destroy the reliability of any revelation from the Creator,
even were it sustained by undisputed miracles and prophecy.
[pg 239]
This last is precisely what the Augustinian system does teach, and,
as its advocates claim, it is a part of a revelation from the Creator,
supported by miracles and prophecy.
That part of this system which relates to man's duties and best
interests in this life, without reference to a future state, has been
more harmoniously evolved by the wise and good of all ages and
nations than any other. Thus, in the teachings of Confucius,
Zoroaster, Gaudama, Solon, Socrates, Plato, Aristotle, Seneca, and
the Antonines, who are among the chief heathen sages, we can find
nearly all the moral duties of man, to himself and to his fellow-man,
which are to be found in the Bible. It is true that there are diversities
and deficiencies in all; but a large body of pure morality could be
made up from their united teachings. The account given of the
system of Boodhism in a previous chapter is one illustration of this
fact.
But, while it is comparatively easy for the good and wise heathen to
reason out what is best for man in this life, as taught by experience,
the grand failure is in motives which will secure obedience to the
rules of virtue. “We see the right and yet the wrong pursue,” has
been the universal lament of humanity.
The character of the Creator, as “the Lord, the Lord God, merciful
and gracious, slow unto anger, of great kindness;” “who doth not
willingly afflict or grieve the children of men;” who “like as a father
pitieth his children;” who is “a father of the fatherless and a judge of
the widow;” “a God without iniquity, just and right;” “a judge of the
fatherless and the poor;” who “shall judge the world with
righteousness;” “a righteous God, who trieth the heart and the
reins;” who “will regard the prayer of the [pg 241] destitute;” who
“knoweth the wants of the heart;” “who knoweth our down-sitting
and up-rising, and is acquainted with all our ways;” who is “a
righteous Lord who loveth righteousness;” “whose judgments are all
right;” whose “word is right;” whose “word is truth from the
beginning;” who is “plenteous in mercy and truth;” such a character
as this, as it is recorded in the Jewish sacred books, was never
evolved or set forth by the wisest and best sages of all the earth,
unaided by these writings.
The fact that the soul survives the dissolution of the body, and that
the good go where they are happy, and the wicked where they are
punished, has been more or less clearly evolved by the heathen
world. In some nations, as for example the followers of Boodhism,
this doctrine is quite definite and distinct, but with most heathen
nations all their notions on this subject are dim, shadowy and
unpractical.
It is those nations alone, who have had access to the Bible, who
have ever attained the powerful motives which are found in the
system of common sense. And yet, as has been shown, these
influences have been, to a great extent, nullified by a contradictory
system.
[pg 242]
It is claimed, that the system of common sense is the one on which
the revelations of the Creator, contained in the Bible, are founded.
This being so, those who are most developed in their reasoning
powers, and who also yield the most reverence to the Bible, are
those who are most powerfully protected against the pernicious
tendencies of the antagonistic system of Augustine.
If common sense and the Bible are to conquer this false system, it
must be done by those whose common sense and reverence for the
Bible are most effective and most prominent. And yet this class of
persons are the ones, who would the most vigorously apply their
energies in the defense of a system in which they have been trained
from infancy, and which is sustained by all the power of public
sentiment, and church organization. This being premised, the
tendencies of the two antagonistic systems will now be set forth.
[pg 243]
Chapter XXXVI. Tendencies of the Two
Systems As They Respect the Cultivation
of the Moral and Intellectual Powers.
The system of common sense rests on the assumption that there are
principles of right and wrong founded on the eternal nature of
things, existing independently of the will of the Creator in his own
eternal mind, and by which his character and conduct may be
judged.
According to this theory, the fact that God wills a thing is what
makes it right; so that any thing is right if God does it, and true if he
says it, however contrary it may be to our moral nature and common
sense.
[pg 246]
Chapter XXXVII. Tendencies of the Two
Systems in Respect to Individual
Religious Experience.
As, on this theory, it is certain that man will do nothing to change his
fallen nature until the Spirit of God is given to aid, the great
attention and effort must be directed to those methods, which “the
church” decides, or experience has proved, to be connected with the
bestowal of this spiritual gift.
Thus it is, that one of the largest sects of our country is instructed
by its founder and his most intelligent and learned followers, as to
the way of salvation from everlasting and inconceivable misery. It
will be remembered, that this class of divines teach that the
depravity of man's mind consists in the deprivation of God's Spirit,
which is withheld from all the descendants of Adam on account of
his sin.
He continues thus:
“No sinner ever did or ever will make a holy choice prior to an
inclination, bias or tendency to holiness.
“On the whole their [i.e., the New Haven divines] views of
depravity, of regeneration and of the mode of preaching to
sinners can not fail, I think, of doing very great mischief. This
exhibition [i.e., that regeneration consists in man's choice]
overlooks the most alarming feature of human depravity and
the very essence of experimental religion. It is directly
calculated to prevent sinners from coming under conviction of
sin....”
The great point taught by Dr. Nettleton and his associates was, that
man has a depraved nature consisting in a bias or propensity to sin,
consequent on Adam's sin, for which we are “awfully criminal in [pg
249] the sight of God,” and which man himself will never remedy;
that regeneration consists in the change of this bias by God, and
that until God does make this change man will “never give his heart
to God nor make one holy choice.” And yet his sermons, as the
writer heard them month after month, abounded in pungent
addresses to sinners, commanding them in God's name to “give their
hearts to God,” and maintaining that their inability to do so was
owing to their own fault and unwillingness to do so.
At the same time, the New Haven divines, in the same pulpit, were
urging their views, showing that regeneration consisted in “choosing
God and his service;” that man was fully able to do this, and yet that
owing to his depraved nature, he never would do it, until that nature
was in some way changed by God. Meantime, on their view also,
every voluntary act, previous to regeneration, was “sin, and only
sin.” Nor had God pointed out any sure mode of obtaining from him
the gift of regenerating grace. They, however, urged that the results
of experience proved that regeneration, though not promised to
unregenerate doings, is, as a matter of fact, bestowed more
frequently on those who use “the means of grace,” such as prayer,
reading the Bible and frequenting religious meetings, than on those
who do not.
Some divines lead to the impression that the new nature consists in
a mysterious indwelling of God in the soul, or a union of our nature
to his, so that when it takes place, there is a natural outflowing of
good feelings and good works, as there was of evil before this union.
But they point out no intelligible way of gaining this union.
It is certain that the young man, totally failed in his efforts to secure
any clear and definite conceptions of the author's meaning, exactly
as has been the case with the writer herself, for whom the above
extract was prepared.
In the view of the author, all theologians do so far hold the common-
sense theory of regeneration, that when they find a person whose
will seems to be entirely subjected to the will of God, while “under
the influence of love and gratitude to Him, and guided by faith in his
teachings, living chiefly for the great commonwealth takes the place
of living chiefly for self”—such a person is regarded by them as
regenerated. At the same time, bound by the Augustine system,
they give other views of the nature of regeneration, which are vague
and conflicting, as has been illustrated in the preceding pages.20
It has been shown (chapter 24) that emotive love, in view of noble
and interesting traits of character, affords a most powerful motive in
securing voluntary love or good willing according to the laws of God.
This is the grand reason why it is so important that all his creatures
should regard their Creator, whose laws they must obey, as perfect
in every noble and lovable quality. This would render it easy and
delightful to obey his will.
The highest emotions of love and gratitude are evoked when a noble
and lovely benefactor condescends to humiliation, suffering, and
even to death to rescue from great calamity. And the greater the
danger and suffering from which this goodness rescues, the stronger
the gratitude and the desire to please the benefactor.
[pg 261]
According to the system of common sense, our Creator is presented
as the Almighty Father, who forms each finite mind an embryo image
of his own all perfect mind, with the great design of making all the
happiness possible. Although the highest happiness of each and of
all, depends on the perfect action of every mind, such action is not
possible in the nature of things except as a knowledge of his laws
and of the motives to secure obedience are made known by finite
educators, who must first be trained themselves by a long and slow
process. Thus every mind is dependent for its final success in
attaining perfect obedience to law, and for perfected happiness, on
God, on finite educators and on self.
The great consummation, when those that are hopelessly ruined will
be separated from the good, is at an indefinite period ahead, and
may be many ages, while the same process of labor and training are
proceeding in the unseen world, and yet so that the conduct and
character formed in this life have a decided influence on the whole
course of existence that follows.
Thus when the good man dies we may hope that his upward career
is eternally secure. But when the wicked die there must be “a certain
fearful looking for of judgment and fiery indignation.”
The Creator does, has done, and will do all that is [pg 262]possible
to save all that can be saved from this doom, and as the highest
possible motives we can conceive to secure this end, would be the
appearance of our Creator in human form as a teacher of his laws,
an example of virtue and a self-sacrificing Saviour, we infer that he
has done or will do this, at the time and in the manner which is best
fitted to the great end in view.
In other words, the Creator, having full power to make every mind
perfect in nature, and who still has power to re-create all with
perfect natures, has instituted a system by which the sin of one man
entails a depraved nature on a whole race, while the evil as yet has
been remedied only in the case of a small, “elect” number. All the
rest are doomed to eternal misery for conduct which is the certain
consequence of this misformed nature.
To save men from the punishment of the sins consequent [pg 263]
on their depraved nature, Christ, the most perfect and only
unsinning being that ever visited earth, undergoes deep humiliation
and excruciating sufferings.
Every mind instinctively asks, why did not the Creator give us a
perfect nature when he has the power to do so? Why does he not
stop all the sin and misery resulting from the depraved nature of
man by regenerating all, when he has power to do so? How can we
either respect or love a being who [pg 264] has done such awful and
endless wrong to our race, and for no conceivable good made
known to us? What cause of gratitude for the sufferings and death
of Christ to save the few of us who alone are to escape from such
needless and intolerable evils?
To say that man, or Adam is the author of all this ineffable wrong,
because it is done by “a constitutional transmission” from parent to
child, of which God is the author, when he had full power to make
each child perfect in nature, what is this but adding to cruelty and
injustice a mean subterfuge in order to cast the blame on Adam and
his race?
The mind turns from a God so represented, with horror and dismay,
and it is only by concealing this [pg 265] system, by representations
that are perfectly contradictory, that the baleful impression is
lessened.
It has been shown that the common-sense theory teaches that all
mankind must, in order to eternal happiness, be trained by human
agencies to choose what is best, guided by the laws of God, as
learned by experience or by revelation.
The experience of mankind has shown that the most effective way
to extend and perpetuate any religion is to have a body of men
supported who shall [pg 266] give their chief energies and time to
this object. Social gatherings at regular periods have also been
found effective to this end. In short, were a system of religion
established, founded exclusively and consistently on experience and
common sense, it would include sabbaths of interrupted worldly
affairs, social gatherings to promote worshipful obedience to the
Creator and a body of men educated and sustained for the express
purpose of discovering, instructing in and perpetuating the
intellectual, social, moral and religious interests of humanity. Such a
ministry would be not dogmatic teachers, but leaders in discussions
and investigations.
The great aim of all these arrangements would be to discover by
inquiry and discussion what is best in all human interests and affairs,
in view of the immortality of man, and the risks and dangers of
eternity, and also to devise the best modes of influencing all to right
action.
Were this life the end of our being, and were all questions of right
and wrong to be settled in reference to the well-being of our race in
this short span, no such separate class of religious leaders and
organized instrumentalities would be needful. But if men are to be
trained to act with reference to the invisible state as the chief
concern, then organized instrumentalities to resist the overruling tide
of worldliness become indispensable.
Both organizations assume that “the church” which has this power,
does not include the people, but is the priesthood alone. It is the
ecclesiastics of these churches who are to interpret the Bible for the
people, and the people are to receive these decisions as from God.
This is the theory, while common sense and the Bible have more or
less modified its practical adoption, especially in the Episcopal
churches.
The Puritans of England were the first among the Protestants who
organized churches as consisting solely [pg 268] of those who
“profess” to be “regenerated” on the theory of the renewal of the
depraved nature derived from Adam. To this profession in most
cases must be added an examination by persons who are
regenerated in order to ascertain whether the true signs of a new
nature, according to their pattern, really exist. Such churches are a
close corporation, having a minister to preach and administer
baptism and the sacrament of the Lord's Supper, and deacons,
elders, or committees to decide who shall be received as regenerate
or turned out as unregenerate.
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