Air Quality, Atmosphere & Health (2023) 16:1543–1570

https://doi.org/10.1007/s11869-023-01357-6

Spatio‑temporal patterns and trends of the air pollution integrating

MERRA‑2 and in situ air quality data over Egypt (2013–2021)
Alaa A. Masoud1

Received: 12 November 2022 / Accepted: 6 April 2023 / Published online: 19 May 2023
© The Author(s) 2023

Abstract
For best-informed decision-making to improve climate change adaptation and reduce present and future air pollution health
hazards, it is essential to identify major trends in spatiotemporal air quality patterns of common air contaminants. This
study examined the patterns and trends of S ­ O2, ­NO2, CO, ­O3, and particulate matter (PM) air pollutants over 91 monitoring
stations in Egypt during 93 months in the August (2013)–April (2021) period. In situ data with their monthly, seasonal,
and yearly spatial trends are defined and used to validate the counterpart satellite reanalysis MERRA-2 data. The Mann–
Kendall test characterized the seasonal monotonic trends and their Sen’s slope, and annual change rate for both data series.
Regression analysis of MERRA-2 against in situ concentrations of S ­ O2 and P­ M10 revealed underestimation with RMSE
values of 13.38 g ­m−3 and 69.46 g ­m−3, respectively. Local plumes with variable magnitudes characterized distinct industrial
places clarified by patterns of in situ pollutants. As a result of the COVID-19 lockdown, the in situ air pollutants showed a
considerable regional decline in the yearly average in 2020 compared to the years before. The in situ air pollutants showed
annual trends far more significant than those seen in the MERRA-2 data. The shortcomings of the few and spatiotemporal
discontinuities of the in situ contaminants are addressed by MERRA-2 air quality products. The in situ data made trends and
magnitudes clear that were hidden in their MERRA-2 counterparts. The results clarified air pollution patterns, trends, and
spatial variability over Egypt that are essential for climate risk management and for reducing environmental/health concerns.

Keywords Seasonal Mann–Kendall · Air quality · Annual change rate · Egypt

Abbreviations SMK Seasonal Mann–Kendall

DALY Disability-adjusted life years SCZone Suez Canal Economic Zone
GBD Global Burden of Disease
PM Particulate matter
AOD Aerosol optical depth Introduction
AOT Aerosol optical thickness
MERRA​ Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for The Earth’s climate changes pose a severe threat to human
Research and Application health (Cianconi et al. 2020; Zheng et al. 2021) caused by
IHD Ischemic heart disease poor air quality (Ding et al. 2017; Hao et al. 2017), and
GCMA Greater Cairo Metropolitan Area have become a focus for global environmental policy-mak-
INDC Intended Nationally Determined Contribution ing (Burnett et al. 2018). The increasing numbers of pre-
GMAO Global Modeling and Assimilation Office mature deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALY)
GOCART​ Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and have been linked to ambient air pollution (Tomczak et al.
Transport 2016), which was responsible for 5.9% of total DALY
OC Organic carbon and 8.8% of deaths from all causes worldwide in 2017
BC Black carbon (GHDx 2019) as the fourth most significant factor of rais-
ing global mortality risk in the Global Burden of Disease
* Alaa A. Masoud (GBD) study 2015 (Forouzanfar et al. 2016), outdoor air
[email protected] pollution is forecasted to contribute to double the global
mortality burden by 2050 (Lelieveld et al. 2015). With
1
Remote Sensing Laboratory, Geology Department, Faculty the rapid increase in population and overexploitation of
of Science, Tanta University, Tanta 31527, Egypt

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1544 Air Quality, Atmosphere & Health (2023) 16:1543–1570

natural resources, climate changes also adversely affect Previous studies had reported that the MERRA-2 data-
ecosystem services (Stuch et al. 2020) and socio-economic set captured the temporal and spatial sequential changes in
development as well (Ma and Zhang 2014). AOD very well, except for heavy pollution (Buchard, et al.
Over the past several decades, due to the quick pace of 2017; Sun, et al. 2019), when compared with other satellites
industrialization and urbanization, and a lack of effective like the Medium Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer-
comprehensive pollutant abatement, many world coun- MODIS (Wei 2021). An increasing number of studies have
tries are still facing many challenges from air pollution. combined pollutant ground measurements and MERRA-2
Among the key determinants of current and future climate reanalysis data to evaluate MERRA-2 for black carbon (Qin
change impacts on air quality are gaseous emissions and et al. 2019; Xu et al. 2020; Sitnov et al. 2020), carbon mon-
particulate matter variability, and shifts in the magnitude oxide (García-Franco 2019), PM2.5 (Song et al. 2018), and
of these variables are associated mostly with global warm- for air quality forecasting (Mukkavilli et al. 2019), in many
ing. Human-induced warming reached approximately 1 °C world regions. Still, the majority of satellite applications
above pre-industrial levels in 2017 (IPCC 2014), increas- have not been validated in developing countries, typically of
ing by 0.2 °C per decade. In large parts of Africa, the high pollution levels and distinctive emission source profiles
Earth’s surface temperature has risen by at least 0.5 °C (Liu 2013; Cabaneros et al. 2019). This has historically been
in the past 50–100 years. Warming could become more difficult worldwide, as in Egypt, requiring long-term and
severe if the net-zero emission ambitions of COP26 are not high-quality dense in situ observations of wide geospatial
met. WHO air quality database reveals that 97% of affected coverage which has been recently increasingly available in
cities are in developing low- and middle-income coun- Egypt.
tries with more than 100,000 inhabitants (WHO, 2018b). Based on Global Burden of Disease 2017 results, Egypt’s
Ambient air pollution is due to high concentrations of population is projected to reach about 200 million by 2100
airborne particulate matter (PM), ozone ­( O 3), nitrogen (Vollset et al. 2020), which, along with continued climate
dioxide ­(NO2), carbon monoxide (CO), and sulfur diox- changes, will exacerbate the problem of air pollution, posing
ide ­(SO2), which have adverse health effects (Mannucci challenges to many aspects of development. World Health
and Franchini 2017). Organization (WHO 2018a, b) stated that over 43,000 Egyp-
A better understanding of the spatio-temporal variability tians died in 2012 from air pollution-related diseases com-
in surface air pollutants concentration is induced by emis- prising acute lower respiratory, chronic obstructive pulmo-
sion characteristics, meteorology, topography, density and nary disease, stroke, ischemic heart disease (IHD), and lung
distribution of monitoring stations, analytical methods, cancer. According to the report, 22,327 Egyptians died of
instrument types and quality, and expertise in measuring IHD while 2079 lost their lives to lung cancer. According
and data analysis. Commonly, most monitoring stations are to the World Bank (2019), relying on 2016–2017 data, air
installed in densely populated urban areas, the distribution of pollution in the Greater Cairo Metropolitan Area (GCMA)
which is scarce and dispersed in less-accessible areas. This alone costs EGP 47 bn in 2017, which was equivalent to
hinders adequate spatial and temporal coverage for consist- 1.35% of Egypt’s GDP where the population (millions)
ent air quality data. With the rapid advancement in space exposed to P ­ M2.5 increased by 45% from 11.9 in 1999 to
technology, satellite-based aerosol optical depth (AOD) 17.3 in 2017, with annual deaths raised by 34% from 9400
products are now being used to overcome the shortcomings to 12,569, respectively. Air pollution shortens the life expec-
of bottom-up inventory in retrieving variations in chemical tancy of Egyptians by two years on average due to morbid-
species composition (Levelt et al. 2018). ity or disability (Apte et al. 2018). Air pollution was the
The reproduction capability of aerosol spatial distribu- cause of 90,559 premature deaths in Egypt in 2019 (UNEP
tion (Shin et al. 2019) has been improved by integrating 2022), and more than 12% of all deaths in 2017 (Institute
models from the various ground- and space-based remote for Health Metrics and Evaluation 2019). According to the
sensing platforms, such as the Modern-Era Retrospective WHO database, air pollution-related illnesses responsible for
Analysis for Research and Application, version 2 (MERRA- premature mortality in Egypt in 2016 included heart disease
2) model. MERRA-2 is the most up-to-date modern satellite (57.9%), stroke (17.7%), and pulmonary and lower respira-
era (1980 onward) atmospheric reanalysis from the NASA tory diseases and cancer (24.4%) (WHO 2018). Noncom-
Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO; Gelaro municable diseases are the number one cause of death in
et al. 2017) to include additional observations and numerous Egypt, responsible for 82% of deaths and 67% of premature
improvements to the Goddard Earth Observing System, ver- deaths (WHO 2022).
sion 5 (GEOS-5), Earth system model (Molod et al. 2015), Egypt is taking dire steps to mitigate the impact both of
representation of the hydrologic cycle (Takacs et al. 2015), air pollution and of climate change. Egypt’s Vision 2030 has
the stratosphere, ozone, and cryospheric processes (Bosi- set a target of reducing P­ M10 small particulate matter con-
lovich et al. 2016). centrations by 50% by 2030. Furthermore, it has formulated

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Air Quality, Atmosphere & Health (2023) 16:1543–1570 1545

a greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction action plan addition to ­10th of Ramadan, Belbeis, and Zaqaziq in Shar-
(World Bank 2021), the Intended Nationally Determined qiya governorate, and Ras Mohamed in South Sinai.
Contribution (INDC), as part of its commitment to the Paris Air quality satellite data over Egypt is based on the lat-
Climate Agreement, and the UN’s Framework Convention est atmospheric reanalysis release in 2017 by the NASA
on the 2021 Climate Change Conference of Parties (COP21). GMAO (Global Modeling and Assimilation Office), that
It is challenging to implement effective air pollution is the MERRA-2 (Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for
management strategies based on fact-informed decisions Research and Applications, Version 2) (Buchard et al.
since patterns and trends of elevated levels of air pollut- 2017; Randles et al. 2017). Data has been downloaded in
ants from poorly managed sources have not yet been quan- the form of time-averaged 2-dimensional monthly mean
tified in Egypt. To create targeted and efficient actions to data collection (tavgM_2d_aer_Nx) covering Egypt for
improve air quality, a thorough emission inventory focused 93 months (August 2013–April 2021). Simulated with 72
to comprehending spatiotemporal differences in air pol- vertical layers from the surface to higher than 80 km using
lution is essential. The research examines the variation in the GEOS-5 (GMAO Earth system model version 5) model
atmospheric levels of MERRA-2 air pollutants ­SO2, CO, radiatively coupled to the GOCART (Goddard Chemistry
­NO2, ­O3, ­PM1, ­PM2.5, and ­PM10, as well as the ground-truth Aerosol Radiation and Transport) model (Chin et al. 2002;
in situ data of ­SO2, ­NO2, and ­PM10 and comparing them with Colarco et al. 2010), that considers the sources, sinks, and
MERRA-2 data for 93 months (August 2013–April 2021) chemistry of 15 externally mixed aerosol species as column
at 91 monitoring sites over Egypt. Finding the most pol- mass density of aerosol components (dust in 5 size bins, sea
luted locations, describing those with statistically significant salt in 5 size bins, hydrophilic and hydrophobic organic car-
trends, and revealing their annual change rates are the over- bon (OC) and black carbon (BC), and sulfate), surface mass
all main goals. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this concentration of aerosol components, and total extinction
study is the first to use reanalysis data—specifically, aerosol (and scattering) aerosol optical thickness (AOT) at 550 nm.
and meteorology products from the MERRA-2 satellite—to These data are used to generate MERRA-2 aerosol gridded
characterize patterns and trends in air pollution in Egypt. products such as that of ­SO2, BC, OC, tropospheric ozone,
This will help the community be more prepared and assist dust, sea salt, and sulfate at a spatial resolution of 0.625°
the best-informed decision-making about plans for adapta- (longitude) × 0.5° (latitude). The total ­PM1, ­PM2.5, and ­PM10
tion and mitigation to lessen the effects of air pollution on are derived, with the variance of certain parameters, from
future health and the environment. the formula described in the FAQs under the Documentation
tab of MERRA-2 Specs.
For evaluating the satellite data, in situ data based on
93 months of paper-based histograms with monthly records
Data and methods noted on the top of the columns secured by the Egyptian
Environmental Affairs Agency (EEAA 2022) is used. Excel
In the present research, air pollution patterns and trends are worksheets are prepared with records that are manually
evaluated for 93 monthly averages of air quality data esti- transferred to the sheets for the three pollutants: S­ O2, ­NO2,
mated from the satellite reanalysis data of MERRA-2 prod- and ­PM10. Available data varied in length and continuity.
ucts and validated using in situ ground truth measurements. For detecting the trends, the Seasonal Mann–Kendall
MERRA-2 air quality data included S ­ O2, CO, and O­ 3, and (SMK) nonparametric test is then performed on MERRA-2
particulate matter at varying micron sizes of 1 ­(PM1), 2.5 and the ground truth in situ data with a 95% confidence
­(PM2.5), and 10 ­(PM10). The recently made available long- level (alpha = 0.05). For each variable across all stations,
term air quality data from the monitoring network of 91 the Sen slope reflecting the annual change rate is calculated,
stations across Egypt, denser in the populous GCMA and along with the SMK parameters of the score S, S Variance,
the Nile Delta regions and sparse everywhere, provided the and Tau. Where the slope is the same but with different S
base for comprehensively assessing the long-term trends of Variance and tau values, serial dependency and independ-
air quality at the nation scale (Fig. 1). Forty-two stations are ence—whether assuming serial correlations among adjacent
concentrated in the GCMA from Qaha in the north to El-Saff consecutive periods (months) exist or not—are examined.
in the south and from Badr City in the east to 6­ th October in SMK adopts a consistent slope direction during the whole
the west. Nineteen stations are distributed in areas close to observation period.
the Nile riverbanks of the Upper Egypt governorates from In order to quantify the anthropogenic loads on air pollut-
Al-Fayoum in the north to Aswan in the south. Nine stations ants, we used the Gridded Population of the World collec-
are located in Alexandria. Twelve stations are distributed in tion version 4 (GPWv4.11) at roughly 1 km, 5 km, 30 km,
the Nile Delta. Five stations are located in the Suez Canal 55 km, and 110 km (CIESIN 2018). The population densities
economic zone (3 in Suez, Ismailiya, and Port-Said). In at various scales are extracted using coordinate points from

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1546 Air Quality, Atmosphere & Health (2023) 16:1543–1570

Fig. 1  Location map of the study area with air quality monitoring stations marked in red-filled circles

monitoring stations. The averages of the monitoring period The subscripts of the dust (Dust) and sea salt (SS) are
for MERRA-2 and in situ air contaminants, regressed against the pins summed to estimate both parameters. AIRDENS
population densities, are examined for Pearson’s correlation is the air density, whereas, D ­ ust 2.5, ­S S 2.5, BC, OC, and
and determination coefficients. ­S O 4 are the GOCART concentrations of dust, sea salt,
Furthermore, estimation of the particulate matter, statisti- black carbon (phobic and philic), organic carbon (phobic
cal analyses performed, seasonal trends and heterogeneity and philic), and sulfate in particles with a diameter smaller
tests carried out are all described in 4. than 2.5 μm, respectively. Sulfate requires a multiplication
factor since the species tracer in MERRA-2 is the sulfate
Particulate matter estimation ion and does not include nitrate aerosol. The values were
very small and therefore converted to micrograms per
The concentration of ­PMx at varying sizes can be computed cubic meter. Tropospheric ozone unit is in Dobson.
using fields from the tavgM_2d_aer_Nx data collection
applying Eqs. (1–3):
( ) Statistical methods
PM1 = 1.375 ∗ SO4 + BC + OC + 0.7 ∗ Dust1 + SS1+2 ∗ AIRDENS
(1)
The data series is subjected to statistical analysis, and esti-
PM2.5 = Dust 2.5 + OC + BC + SS2.5+ 1.375 ∗ SO4 (2) mations of descriptive summary statistics—including mini-
mum and maximum values for monthly, seasonal, and yearly
(
PM10 = 1.375 ∗ SO4 + BC + OC + Dust(1+2+3) + 0.74 ∗ Dust4 + SS(1+2+3+4)
)
means, standard deviation, and percentiles—as well as other
∗ AIRDENS
statistical parameters are made. The cross-validation of the
(3) in situ and MERRA-2 time-series data is measured using

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Air Quality, Atmosphere & Health (2023) 16:1543–1570 1547

the root mean squared error (RMSE). For statistical data xj and xk are the sequential monthly data values. When S
analysis, XLSTAT, an Excel add-in, is employed along with bears a positive value, it indicates an upward or increasing
SMK and a number of heterogeneity tests. ArcGIS version trend and if the value is negative, it indicates a downward
9.3 was used to analyze the spatial distribution of air pollu- trend or decreasing trend. If n is at least 10 or more, the test
tion concentrations, together with their statistics and rate of follows a normal distribution; and hence, a normal approxi-
change. Spherical models were frequently used, and krig- mation test is used with expectation (E) and variance of S as
ging variogram modelling was evaluated. In order to obtain VAR(S) using Eq. (6):
the seamless regional approximation with the lowest error
1 ∑q
[ ]
statistics, maps are cross-validated against the original data. VAR(S) = n(n − 1)(2n + 5) − tp (tp − 1)(2tp + 5)
18 p=1
(6)
Here, q is the number of tied groups and tp is the number
Seasonal trend and heterogeneity tests
of data points in the pth tied group in the dataset. The stand-
ardized test statistic (Z) is calculated as Eq. (7):
Statistical monotonic trend tests in seasonal (e.g., monthly)
environmental and climate time series data are commonly S−1
ifS >0
confounded by non-normal data, missing values, seasonality,
⎧ √
VAR(S)
(7)
⎪
censoring (detection limits), and serial dependence (Sicard Z=⎨ 0ifS = 0
S−1
et al. 2013). An extension of the Mann–Kendall test for trend
⎪ √ <0
ifS
⎩ VAR(S)
(designed for such data) implemented in XLSTAT is adopted
and applied in this research. Because the test is based entirely on where, the value of Z is the MK test statistic which follows
ranks, it is robust against non-normality and censoring. Season- a standard normal distribution with the mean being 0 and
ality and missing values present no theoretical or computational variance being 1. In this study, confidence intervals of 95%
obstacles to its application. MERRA-2 and in situ ground-truth (p < 0.05) were taken to classify the significance of positive
data were analyzed using the non-parametric SMK test and and negative trends. Furthermore, the Sen slope estimator
Sen’s slope method to statistically assess the linear upward or of the linear trend has been estimated using the Theil–Sen
downward trend of the variable of interest over time and the estimator (Sen 1968). The slope (Q) estimates of N pairs of
magnitude of change (Mann 1945; Sen 1968; Kendall 1975; data are first computed by Eq. (8):
Gilbert 1987). The traditional MK test is described first fol- xj −xk
lowed by the modifications for seasonality. MK assumes a null Qi = ;Fori = 1, 2, 3, … … .N. (8)
j−k
hypothesis (Ho) of no monotonic trend in the data series while
its alternative hypothesis (Ha) assumes that there is a presence where xj and xk are data values at times j and k (j > k) respec-
of a monotonic trend in the time-series data. tively. The median of these N values of Q is Sen’s estimator
of the slope.

Mann–Kendall trend test

Seasonal Mann–Kendall and homogeneity
In the traditional MK analysis, the number of sequential tests
values in the studied data series is denoted by n. If n is 9
or less, the absolute value of S is compared directly to the The SMK (Hirsch et al. 1982), modified from Kendall’s test,
theoretical distribution of S derived by Mann and Kendall is for the trend that allows for seasonality in observations
(Gilbert 1987). The MK test statistic S is calculated using collected over time, which is appropriate for trend testing in
Eqs. (4) and (5). each season when the trend is always in the same direction
∑n−1 ∑n across all seasons.
(4) The MK statistic for the gth season is calculated using
( )
S= sgn xj − xk
k=1 j=k+1
Eq. (9):
where, ∑n−1 ∑n
(9)
( )
Sg = sgn xjg − xkg , g = 1, 2, … , m
k=1 j=k+1
� ⎪ 1ifxj − xk > 0
⎧
(5) The SMK statistic, Ŝ, for the entire season series
�
sgn xj − xk = ⎨ 0ifxj − xk = 0
⎪ −1ifxj − xk < 0 (12 months, in this study) is calculated using Eq. (10) as
follows:
⎩

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1548 Air Quality, Atmosphere & Health (2023) 16:1543–1570

m tests implemented in XLSTAT software (van Belle and

̂
∑
S= Sg (10) Hughes 1984) were performed using three test methods
g=1
(i.e., Pettitt’s, SNHT, and Buishand's test) at monthly
For further information, the reader is referred to Hipel timescales. In this study, the null hypothesis was accepted
and McLoed (1994, p. 866–869) and Hirsch et al. (1982). and the data were considered homogeneous when the
More details for the seasonal Mann–Kendall test are avail- computed p-value for each test was greater than the sig-
able at https://​cran.r-​proje​ct.​org/​web/​packa​ges/​trend/​vigne​ nificance level (0.05). For the inhomogeneous series, the
ttes/​trend.​pdf. inflection points are identified.
The assessment of climate-related data reliability
is mainly done by performing homogeneity tests (Hän-
sel et al. 2016) which detect and define inflection point Results
(month in a year) abrupt changes that mostly mark climatic
or anthropogenic extremes related to changes in instru- MERRA‑2 air pollution patterns of trends
ments, observation practices, station geographical loca-
tion, calculations codes and units, and land use/cover for Violin and Box plots along with descriptive statistics of
the trend in any direction in any season to help identify the air pollutants contents and magnitude of monotonic
non-climatic environmental factors contributing to spatio- trends estimated from MERRA-2 are shown on Fig. 2 and
temporal variability (Peterson et al. 1998). Homogeneity Table 1, respectively. The amount of pollutants showed

Fig. 2  Violin and Box plots of

the MERRA-2 derived air pol-
lutants showing a concentration,
and b annual change rate

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Air Quality, Atmosphere & Health (2023) 16:1543–1570 1549

wide variations. ­SO2 has a range of of 44–15.6 μg ­m−3and governorate from 2013 until 2021. Observations of total
an average of 9.6 μg ­m −3. CO averaged 148 μg ­m −3 in ozone in Egypt revealed insignificant declining trends, how-
a range level of 70–236 μg ­m −3. Tropospheric ozone ever, with an exceptional zone of increase near 0.05 DU from
varied between 227 and 336 Du, with an average value Port Said, Dumiyat, middle Delta stations, Damanhour, and
of 288 Du. P ­ M 10 leads the content of the PM with an El-Asafrah (Alexandria).
average of 142 μg ­m −3, followed by 75 μg ­m −3 ­P M 2.5, In general, increasing particulate matter (­ PM1, ­PM2.5,
and then 47 μg ­m−3 ­PM1. Their range levels also varied and ­PM10) trend magnitudes propagate gradually south-
with 44–443 μg ­m −3 ­P M 10, 9.7–230 μg ­m −3 ­P M 2.5, and ward to reach the maximum annual rate over Aswan at
6.2–94 μg ­m−3 ­PM1. ­PM10 and ­PM2.5 contents and trends about 4 μg ­m−3. This is the result that has been achieved
are highly influenced by outliers (Fig. 2). in southern European countries (Spain, Portugal, and Italy)
Correlation coefficients among the studied MERRA-2 affected by PM originating from the African Sahara Desert.
air pollutants (Table 2) indicated a significant strong rela- These trends persist from south to east Delta stations (Shibin
tionship of the ­PM1 (r = 0.83), CO (r = 0.82), and ­PM10 Al-Kom and Zaqaziq, and Ismailiya) and continue south-
(r = 0.47) with the S ­ O2 concentration. CO is greatly influ- wards over Upper Egypt. PM10 showed the most widespread
enced by ­PM1 (r = 0.82) and ­PM10 (r = 0.57). These results significant increasing trends, followed by P ­ M1, and P­ M2.5
confirm that ­SO2 and CO coexist (r = 0.82), as well as ­PM1 came last. Although middle and north Deltas varied in their
and ­PM10 (r = 0.74). Also, ­PM1 and ­PM10 constitute the significance, ­PM10 increased, and P ­ M2.5 decreased; for P
­ M1,
major part of S ­ O2 and CO. P ­ M2.5 contributes largely to the increasing trends occurred further from deserts in the east-
ozone content (r = 0.42). And so, aerosol chemical compo- ern and western delta fringes, while decreasing trends were
sition is heavily affected by dust winds from deserts, with observed at the middle Delta monitoring stations, located
some contribution of local traffic and industries, a result amidst agricultural areas.
which has been proven by Kchih et al. (2015). Pearson’s correlation analysis at a significance level of
The largest annual average rate of the 91 monitoring sta- 95% that is shown on Table 4 indicated mutual trend coex-
tions over Egypt marked the ­PM10 (2.28 μg ­m−3), followed by istence of ­SO2 and CO (r = 0.48) greenhouse gas emissions.
­PM2.5 (1.07 μg ­m−3), ­PM1 (0.11 μg ­m−3), ­SO2 (− 0.04 μg ­m−3), Particulate matters of P ­ M1 strongly positively correlate
­O3 (− 0.20 Dobson), and CO (− 0.34 μg ­m−3), in decreasing with ­PM2.5 (r = 0.91) and ­PM10 (r = 0.61), while ­PM2.5 form
order, as listed in Table 3. Patterns of monotonic trend mag- a large part of the P ­ M10 (r = 0.51). Tropospheric ozone
nitudes are spatially displayed on Fig. 3. All stations showed showed a strong negative correlation with the particulate
insignificant increasing or decreasing ­SO2 trends. Two plume matters of P ­ M2.5 (r =  − 0.83), ­PM1 (r =  − 0.71), and ­PM10
areas of S­ O2 do exist in the Suez Canal economic zone and in (r =  − 0.37), in decreasing order.
the Aswan-Idfu area confirming the same result obtained from
the in situ data explained later with Ain Sukhna and Port Said In situ air quality spatio‑temporal variations
showed increasing trends but of less significance compared
to that of the in situ data. Suez and Ismailiya experienced Statistical variation of air pollutants
insignificant decreasing trends. Idfu and Aswan clarified
insignificant increasing and decreasing trends, respectively. The number of measurements and length of continued moni-
The pattern of CO trends is similar to that of S ­ O2 as they are toring varied largely among in situ air pollutants at all sta-
mutually co-emitted from similar pollution sources. Increas- tions, with ­SO2 being the longest and largest in the number
ing insignificant trends mark the Suez Canal Economic Zone of records (n = 2834), followed by P­ M10 (n = 2577), and then
(SCZone) stations; Suez, Ismailiya, and Port Said. A local ­NO2 (n = 1973). Descriptive summary statistics are shown in
plume of increasing insignificant CO trends at a rate in the Table 5. ­SO2 clarified an average of 15.2 μg ­m−3 with level
level range of 0.80–1.72 μg.m−3 persists over Kafr Al-Sheikh range of 0–187 μg ­m−3. ­NO2 averaged 30.6 μg ­m−3 in the

Table 1  Descriptive statistics of (n = 8463) SO2 CO O3 PM1 PM2.5 PM10

MERRA-2 air pollutants
Min 1.44 70 227 6.2 9.7 44
Max 15.6 236 336 94 230 443
Mean 9.6 148 288 47 75 142
Stand. dev 3.4 37.9 15.7 28.1 37.0 45.1
25 percentile 7.2 115.8 276.7 20.5 47.3 106.1
75 percentile 12.9 180.2 298.4 79.5 98.7 168.7
Coeff. var 35.6 25.5 5.4 59.1 49.4 31.8

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1550 Air Quality, Atmosphere & Health (2023) 16:1543–1570

Table 2  Pearson’s correlation b SO2 CO O3 PM1 PM2.5 PM10

coefficients of the MERRA-2
air pollutants SO2 1
CO 0.82 1
O3 0.07 0.02 1
PM1 0.83 0.82 0.13 1
PM2.5 − 0.11 − 0.11 0.42 0.01 1
PM10 0.47 0.57 0.28 0.74 0.24 1

range level of 1–161 μg ­m−3. ­PM10 showed an average of number of ships passing daily in the Suez Canal with emis-
137.7 μg ­m−3 and a range of 12–437 μg ­m−3. Spatio-tempo- sion sourced from ships’ sulfuric fuel consumption. Man-
ral variations of the studied air pollutants are described in soura1 is an ever-evolving industrial city with many factories
the following sections. and dense vehicles on roads, where fuel burning is a major
source of S­ O2. Significant improving trends varied in rates
Sulfur dioxide from –0.4 in Alexandria to –2.6 μg ­m−3 ­year−1 in Shubra
El-Kheima. Improving air quality in these cities is related to
Spatial distribution of ­SO2 with monthly, seasonal, and climate conditions such as in Alexandria which is a coastal
annual temporal averages over Egypt is shown on Fig. 4. city with low pollution loads or for governmental regula-
The monthly mean ­SO2 concentrations varied widely dur- tions set for industrial areas such as Shubra El-Kheima or in
ing the considered time interval. An improving trend in S ­ O2 crowded cities such as in Al-Kolaly and Nasr City. Homo-
concentrations was observed between the years 2013 and geneity tests of ­SO2 are shown on Table S2. Homogeneity
2016 and fluctuated afterward, sometimes with extreme tests of ­SO2 indicated thirteen inhomogeneous time series
reversed trends. This improvement is mostly related to the data, which later have been differentiated into significant
significant increase in the natural gas demand for vehi- five decreasing and eight increasing trends. Inflection points
cles alternating benzene and low-sulfur fuel strict poli- (t) where significant abrupt increase or decrease changes
cies. ­SO2 limits, according to the Egyptian Environmental occurred varied between May and December for years rang-
Law 4/1994 amended in Law 9/2009 and Law 105/2015, ing from 2014 to 2019.
are 50 μg ­m −3 and 60 μg ­m −3 for urban and industrial The characteristics of the seasonal Mann–Kendall trends
areas, respectively. Local plumes with S ­ O2 range levels of and their Sen’s slope referring to the ­SO2 annual rate of
48–84 μg ­m−3 mark the southern Upper Egypt stations of change are shown on Fig. 5. Eight stations attained the most
Idfu, Kom Ombu, and Aswan of common occurrence in significant increasing trends with the largest annual rate of
April and May. These stations attained the largest average change including Suez, Mansoura1, ­6th October, Mohande-
range levels of 37–57 μg ­m−3 in winter with the largest seen, Qaha, Abu Zaabal, Al-Salam City, and Giza Square,
plume at a range level of 32–41 μg ­m−3 occurred in 2013. arranged in a decreasing rate of change. Six stations showed
­SO2 local plumes in the level ranges of 28–39 μg ­m−3 domi- significant improving trends arranged in decreasing order as
nated in Assut, Sohag, and Nagaa Hammadi in 2014. ­SO2 Shubra El-Kheima, Al-Kolaly, Zaqaziq, Beni Suef1, Nasr
high levels in these cities are attributed to sulfur-rich fuel City, and Alexandria. Suez clarified the largest recorded
burning emissions from the Nile cruises along with electric- annual change rate at 5 µg ­m−3 while the most improved
ity generators for domestic and industrial uses in the newly annual rate trend at –2.6 µg ­m−3 marked Shubra El-Kheima.
developed industrial zones. In general, there is a regional
decrease in 2020 of ­SO2. The marked increase of ­SO2 in
2021 in the Suez Canal economic zone (SCZone) stations Table 3  Descriptive statistics of the MERRA-2 air pollutants annual
compared to that of 2019 confirms that the IMO (2020b) change rate at all stations
new regulations started on January 2020 of the ­SO2 limit of (n = 91) Min Max Mean Std. dev
0.50 wt% from the previous 3.5wt% either were not effec-
SO2 − 0.10 0.02 − 0.04 0.03
tive or have not been strictly applied.
CO − 0.62 1.72 − 0.34 0.34
Significant increasing trends showed S ­ O2 annual rate of
O3 − 0.73 0.05 − 0.20 0.16
change in the range level of 1.12–5 μg ­m ­year−1 (Table S1).
−3
PM1 − 0.08 0.58 0.11 0.12
Suez attained the largest increasing rate at 5 μg ­m−3 ­year−1
PM2.5 − 0.21 4.63 1.07 1.05
followed by Mansoura1 of 3 μgm −3 ­year−1. The large rate
PM10 − 1.01 4.23 2.28 0.68
of increasing S­ O2 in Suez is attributed to the ever-increasing

13
Air Quality, Atmosphere & Health (2023) 16:1543–1570 1551

Fig. 3  Maps showing the annual

change rate of the MERRA-2
air pollutants, significant or
insignificant, and increasing or
decreasing trends

Monotonic trends were only detected for monitoring Nitrogen dioxide

stations located at Beni Suef and northwards (Fig. 6).
­S O 2 plume areas with significantly increasing trends at The ­NO2 is mostly emitted via combustions including diesel
the largest annual rate in the range level of 0.82–2.8 µg/ and gasoline fuel engines, and industrial activities with fos-
m3 mark the SCZone cities of Suez, Ismailiya, and Port sil fuel combustion marked as the main source of ­NO2 in the
Said. These values are lower than those in Table S1 since Middle East region (Lelieveld et al. 2015). ­NO2 annual lim-
the krigged surface of the trend pattern is an approxima- its, according to the Egyptian standards, are of 60 μg ­m−3 and
tion and does not honor the exact values at the stations. 80 μg ­m−3 for urban and industrial areas, respectively. Spa-
The ship traffics of large number of varying cargo types tial distribution of ­NO2 with monthly, seasonal, and annual
passing the Suez Canal are the main source of ­SO2 pollu- temporal averages over Egypt is shown on Fig. 7. Local
tion in this region. plumes with N ­ O2 range levels of 41–51 μg ­m−3 dominate

13
1552 Air Quality, Atmosphere & Health (2023) 16:1543–1570

Table 4  Pearson’s correlation (n = 91) SO2 CO O3 PM1 PM2.5 PM10

coefficients of MERRA-2 air
pollutants annual change rate SO2 1
CO 0.48 1
O3 0.02 − 0.24 1
PM1 0.00 0.13 − 0.71 1
PM2.5 − 0.06 − 0.04 − 0.83 0.91 1
PM10 − 0.38 − 0.28 − 0.37 0.61 0.51 1

Bold values are significant at 95% level

in December and January between Minia and Assut, while two decreasing and two increasing trends. Inflection points
a plume of ­NO2 pollution marks GCMA stations in August. (t) the winter months of January 2018 and February 2017,
­NO2 pollution is much stronger in summer and autumn with and the autumn months of August 2016 and September 2015
plume range of 40–59 μg ­m−3 dominating in Assut stations. for the increasing trends.
­NO2 was much active in 2017 in the Upper Egypt stations
from Assut and southward mutually associated with the ­SO2
pollutant. The characteristics of the seasonal Mann–Kendall Particulate matter (PM10)
trends and their Sen’s slope of ­NO2 are shown on Fig. 8
with the annual change rate shown on Table S3. Ain Sukhna The spatial distribution of P ­ M10 with monthly, seasonal, and
located on the Gulf of Suez clarified the largest increasing annual temporal averages over Egypt is shown on Fig. 10.
rate of change of about 9.2 μg ­m−3 ­year−1 followed by New Local standards for the P ­ M10 annual limits are 70 μg ­m−3 and
Beni Suef City with a rate of 4.17 μg ­m−3 ­year−1. Significant −3
80 μg ­m for urban and industrial areas, respectively. Two
improving trends with the largest rates marked Cairo dis- significant plumes are widespread over GCMA and Aswan
tricts of Masr El-Gadida (–11.08 μg ­m−3 ­year−1) and Naser from February to November every year during the monitor-
Institute (–3.34 μg ­m−3 ­year−1). ing period, but reach the maximum in July with levels of
NO2 plume areas in Suez and Beni Suef1 are of remark- 310–420 μg ­m−3. These plume areas continue in all seasons
able occurrence with significantly increasing trends at the but of much strong effect in the spring (290–410 μg ­m−3)
largest annual change rate in the range level of 1.7–4 µg ­m−3 that dominated in 2014 and 2017. P ­ M10 showed a regional
(Fig. 9). decrease in 2020 following the COVID-19 lockdown. The
The improving trend was sustained in 2013–2016 for ­NO2 characteristics of the seasonal Mann–Kendall trends and
as for ­SO2, with 2020 being the most improved ­NO2 con- their PM annual rate of change are shown in Fig. 11 and
centration in Egypt where Greater Cairo and the Nile Delta Table S5. Many GCMA districts clarified the largest rates
are the most improved being the most populous regions that of increase in P­ M10 of which Masr El-Gadida and Al-Salam
have been locked following COVID-19 in 2019. Seasonal City attained the largest significant rate of 7.81 μg ­m−3 ­year−1
variation showed improvement from winter to spring and and 5.31 μg ­m−3 ­year−1, respectively. Significantly improv-
then reversed to increase in summer to reach its maximum in ing areas of Zaqaziq, Shubra El-Kheima, and Mohandseen
autumn, mostly related to the fact that in winter and spring, clarified the largest rates of − 19.75 μg ­m−3 ­year−1, − 12.97 μ
­NO2 is less affected by meteorological conditions (e.g., g ­m−3 ­year−1, and − 10.92 μg ­m−3 ­year−1, respectively. Recent
inversion and the stable boundary layer are dominant) and improving PM concentrations in the GCMA are attributed
chemical mechanisms (e.g., photolysis, which is dominant to the control of kiln dust emitted from cement industries
in summer and autumn; Torbatian et al. 2020). Homogeneity through the use of electrostatic precipitators such as in the
tests of ­NO2 are shown in Table S4. Homogeneity tests indi- Helwan industrial district.
cated only four inhomogeneous time series data: significant Homogeneity tests of P ­ M10 are shown on Table S6. Homo-
geneity tests indicated thirteen inhomogeneous time series
data: significant eleven decreasing and two increasing trends.
Table 5  Descriptive statistics of the in situ air pollutants Inflection points (t) marked August and December 2015 for
Variable No. of Minimum Maximum Mean Std. deviation the increasing trends mostly associated with wind-blown
records desert dust and heavy traffic and industry. Marked abrupt
change varied between May and November common in 2016
SO2 2834 0.0 187 15.2 11.4
and 2018 for the decreasing trends, mostly of climatic origin
NO2 1973 1 161 30.6 20
associated with the calm end of spring and Autumn.
PM10 2577 12 437 137.7 57.7

13
Air Quality, Atmosphere & Health (2023) 16:1543–1570 1553

Fig. 4  In situ ­SO2 maps of

monthly, seasonal, and annual
concentrations (µg m.−3)

13
1554 Air Quality, Atmosphere & Health (2023) 16:1543–1570

Fig. 5  Monitoring stations attaining significant increasing (red) and decreasing (blue) Mann–Kendall trends and their slopes for the S
­ O2 pollut-
ant (µg m.−3)

13
Air Quality, Atmosphere & Health (2023) 16:1543–1570 1555

Fig. 6  Spatial distribution of

the detected monotonic trends
annual change rate of the S ­ O2
pollutant (µg m.−3)

PM10 plume areas with significantly increasing trends atmospheric aerosols in the planetary boundary layer over
at the largest annual change rate in the range level of Portugal in 2016 (Gama et al. 2020).
0.35–2.5 µg ­m−3 mark the Suez Canal economic zone cities Our research confirmed the dominance of the P ­ M10
of Suez and Port Said (Fig. 12). dust loadings in the spring with plumes focused over south
Overall, the impact of dust on the annual average GCMA and Aswan. This conclusion agrees well with the
­PM10 has a clear latitudinal gradient (from 70 to greater results of Moulin et al. (1998) where in the EM basin
than 220 µg ­m−3 going from north to south); this feature is (extending from Turkey to northern Africa and eastward to
mainly driven by an increased number of dust episodes per Iran), dust loadings are commonly due to the occurrence of
year with decreasing latitude. intense Sharav cyclones, which are generated by the thermal
The monthly and seasonal averages of dust-PM 10 contrast between cold Atlantic air and warm continental air,
(55–220 µg ­m−3) are more homogenous over the country over the south of the Atlas Mountains (Morocco).
with peak plumes south of GCMA and over Aswan, shown Large contributors to natural PM levels in Egypt are the
to be mainly influenced by the site type, with enhanced val- northeasterly winds in spring and the fresh-to-strong hot “Kha-
ues in more urbanized locations. A similar ­PM10 gradient but masin” southerly wind which are usually loaded with high levels
at lesser magnitudes has affected Italy by atmospheric trans- of natural sand and dust. Anthropogenic sources of PM emission
port of desert dust from the Northern Africa and the Middle are especially from incomplete combustion processes, heavy
East drylands (Barnaba et al. 2022). Also, high Saharan- oil industrial activities (iron and steel, cement, brick industry,
dust ­PM10 background levels are recorded in Southern Spain ceramics, coke plants, etc.), and traffic, about 88% of which
(30 µg ­m−3 ­PM10 as an annual mean for rural areas) and comes from old and poorly maintained cars and buses with
very similar values are recorded in industrial and urban areas emissions estimated to be 1800 tonnes in 2000, a more than sev-
(Rodriguez et al. 2001). Several desert dust episodes affected enfold increase since 1980 only in the GCMA (Nasralla 2001).

13
1556 Air Quality, Atmosphere & Health (2023) 16:1543–1570

Fig. 7  In situ ­NO2 maps of

monthly, seasonal, and annual
concentrations (µg m.−3)

13
Air Quality, Atmosphere & Health (2023) 16:1543–1570 1557

Validation and anthropogenic impact of air Population density at the monitored stations showed an
pollutants average of 11,600 person/km2, mostly concentrated in the
Nile Valley and Delta regions (Fig. 16). In general, GCMA
Comparison of the MERRA-2 to the in situ data is carried is the most populous area, followed by Alexandria and El-
out by investigating the descriptive statistics, Pearson’s coef- Mehala Al-Kubra. The districts of Al-Matariya, Imbabah,
ficients of correlation and determination, and the root mean and Shubra El-Kheima in GCMA recorded the top three most
squared error (RMSE). For the MERRA-2 and the in situ populated areas of Egypt reaching about 61,000, 42,000, and
data, respectively, descriptive statistics of the air pollutants 40,000 person/km2, respectively, followed by Gheit El-Enab2
averages at all stations showed wide range levels of 3–13 in Alexandria (34,000 person/km2). El-Mehala Al-Kubra
and 2–31 for ­SO2, and 80–178 and 68–329 for ­PM10, but recorded the highest mean density of 22,700 people per
with close averages of 10 and 15 for ­SO2, and 142 and 133 square kilometer in the Middle Delta region. Ras Mohamed
for ­PM10 (Table 6). Violin and Box along with the percentile in South Sinai and Ain Sukhna in Suez revealed the least
plots (Fig. 13) clarified close averages but the in situ data dense areas of 43 and 3 person/km2, respectively.
showed much more outliers. S ­ O2 errors are lowest for val- Population density showed larger correlation and
3 determination coefficients at 5 km than at other resolu-
ues less than 20 g/m , above which they gradually increase.
The ­PM10 error is lowest for values less than 300 g/m3 and tions (Table 9). The population density at 5 km correlated
gradually increases at larger concentrations. well, at a significance level of 99%, with the MERRA-2
Pearson’s correlation coefficients and best-fitted deter- ­PM10 (r = 0.46), ­PM1 (r = 0.45), ­SO2 (r = 0.35), and CO
mination coefficients of MERRA-2 against the in situ air (r = 0.35), in decreasing order, and also the in situ ­NO2
pollutants averages at all stations are shown in Table 7, (r = 32). Empirical equations for the regression analysis
with empirical equations shown in Fig. 14. The ­SO2 and are shown in Fig. 17. Best-fit linear regression revealed
the ­PM10 MERRA-2 contents did not correlate well with anthropogenic inputs of 22%, 20%, 12%, and 11% for the
their in situ counterparts. However, at a significance level concentrations of MERRA-2 ­PM10, ­PM1, ­SO2, and CO,
of 99%, results of MERRA-2 confirm the co-existence of respectively, and 11% for in situ ­NO2.
­SO2 and CO (r = 0.95), with the largest contribution com- MERRA-2 ­PM2.5 exhibited the largest negative correla-
ing from PM1 (r = 0.92) and ­PM10 (r = 0.90) for ­SO2, and tion coefficient (r =  − 0.28) at 1-km resolution indicating
­PM1 (r = 0.88) and ­PM10 (r = 0.84) for CO. Tropospheric local anthropogenic impact while the in situ ­NO2 showed a
ozone significantly decreases in elevated ­PM2.5 air content gradual increase at coarser scales, being maximum at 110 km
(r =  − 0.47). ­PM1 and ­PM10 coexist (r = 0.95). The in situ (r = 0.34) indicating a regional anthropogenic impact.
data clarified the moderate contribution of ­NO 2 to the
­PM10 concentration. Also, the in situ N ­ O2 showed strong
positive correlation (r > 0.50) with most of MERRA-2 air Discussion
pollutants except ozone, while fairly correlated with P ­ M2.5
(r = 0.20). Also, at a significance level of 99%, ­S O 2 air Sustaining air pollution trends over the industrial
content can also be identified empirically at an accuracy zones
of 91%, 85%, and 80% from CO, ­PM1, and ­PM10, respec-
tively. CO fitted linearly at an accuracy of 78% and 71% GCMA industrial zone
from ­PM1 and ­PM10 contents, respectively. ­PM1 concentra-
tion can be estimated from ­PM10 content (R2 = 0.91). Also, As shown in the in situ data trends, the 6th October city
the in situ N
­ O2 concentration can be moderately approxi- ­ O2 levels of 2.042 μg ­m−3 ­year−1
recorded the highest indoor S
mated from the MERRA-2 ­SO2 and ­PM10 (R2 = 0.91). followed by Mohandeseen at 1.8 μg ­m−3 ­year−1 and Abu
Regression analysis of MERRA-2 against in situ meas- Zaabal at 1.5 μg ­m−3 ­year−1, and Suez at 5 μg ­m−3 ­year−1
ured ­SO2 and P ­ M10 air pollutants pairwisely recorded is and Mansoura1 at 3 μg ­m−3 ­year−1. There was a ­NO2 trend of
shown in Table 8 and Fig. 15 achieved very low monthly 3.25 μg ­m−3 ­year−1 in Mohandeseen, 2.375 at Giza Square,
cross-validation R2 values with RMSE of 13.38 µg ­m−3 and and 1.67 at Abu Zaabal, following the largest recorded over
69.46 µg ­m−3, respectively. This confirmed a significant Egypt at Ain Sukhna (9.18 μg ­m−3 ­year−1) and New Beni
underestimation of the high aerosol loading phenomenon of Suef (4.17 μg ­m−3 ­year−1). Misr El-Gadida and Al-Salam
MERRA-2 AOD products which agrees well with the result City have among the highest PM10 annual content rates
of a long-term analysis of China’s economically developed in GCMA with 7.81 g ­m−3 ­year−1 and 5.31 g ­m−3 ­year−1,
regions compared to that with MODIS (Song et al. 2018). respectively.

13
1558 Air Quality, Atmosphere & Health (2023) 16:1543–1570

Fig. 8  Monitoring stations attaining significant increasing (red) and decreasing (blue) Mann–Kendall trends and their slopes for the N
­ O2 pollut-
ant (µg m.−3)

GCMA activities consume over 40% of Egypt’s energy Metropolitan Area, the most developed industrial areas
yet only 18% of the country’s population (Nasralla 2001). are located in Shoubra El Kheima in the north and in Hel-
This energy is mostly consumed by intensive air polluting wan in the south. In addition, they are adjacent to residen-
industries such as cement and construction industries, to tial areas in some urban districts. According to Nasralla
fulfill the needs for housing and public utilities as a result (2001), heavy oil and natural gas are the major fuels used
of population overgrowths, accompanied by an increased for power generation in GCMA, accounting for 60% and
volume of solid waste, disposed of and burned in the open 40% respectively.
air that accounts for 36% of the total annual load of pollu- Other sources of GCMA air pollution include emissions
tion in GCMA air (EEAA Reports 2006). In these reports, from buses and vehicles, which account for 1.5 million
the largest contribution of air pollution is from industrial vehicles. The road density in Egypt is very low (0.045 km/
emissions (32%), vehicles exhausts (26%), and agricultural km2) compared to the worldwide average of 0.2 km/km2.
(especially rice straw) and open burning of waste (6%). Passenger car units (PCU) of 1,210,000 traveled GCMA
GCMA houses about 50% of the industrial activities, during peak hours in 2010 with a high dependency on pri-
along with the generation of electricity from thermal vate cars (only 23% of daily trips were by public transport).
power stations and motor vehicles all over Egypt, where The annual economic congestion cost was estimated at 47
haze and smoke plumes become a common phenomenon billion LE and is expected to reach 105 billion LE by 2030.
and hence has been considered the most air polluted According to the Cairo Traffic Congestion Study 2014, very
place in the country (Nasralla 2001). In the Greater Cairo high congestion rates are caused by travel time delay (36%),

13
Air Quality, Atmosphere & Health (2023) 16:1543–1570 1559

Fig. 9  Spatial distribution of

the detected monotonic trends
annual change rate of the N ­ O2
pollutant (µg m.−3)

unreliability (25%), recurrent and non-recurrent congestion conditions at the largest significant (99%) annual rates of
(37%), and excess fuel cost and C­ O2 emissions (2%) cause a 5 μg ­m−3 ­year−1 of S
­ O2 at Suez and 9.2 μg ­m−3 ­year−1 ­NO2
loss of 3.6% of Egypt’s total GDP and 15% of GCMA GDP at Ain Sukhna, as well as range level of 0.35–2.5 µg ­m−3
per capita (Basyoni 2016). of ­PM10 at Suez and Port Said. The largest rates were also
Solid municipal waste, which amounts to 700 thousand confirmed by the MERRA-2 data but at lower magnitudes
tons to one million tons annually, and agricultural (espe- attributed to the underestimation inherent in the MERRA-2
cially rice straw) waste combustion in the open air and the air quality products. In SCZone ports, ships, machinery, and
fuel used in small industries and workshops are additional port activities evolved to cope with to the ever-increasing
sources of air pollution. Burning 2000 tons per day of number of vessels of different cargo types that generate a
municipal solid waste may add 7000 tons of ­SO2 per annum large number of greenhouse gases and fine particulate mat-
to Cairo air (Nasralla 1999), also agricultural waste burning ter (Kong and Liu 2021). A recent study has shown that on
in the Nile delta valley during autumn. Moreover, the air a global scale, shipping emissions take up 20% of N ­ OX and
quality of low-lying Cairo is largely affected by natural dust 12% of ­SO2 emissions from anthropogenic sources in 2017
carried out by wind from the surrounding desert and hills. (McDuffie et al. 2020). The shipping industry contributes
around 13% and 15% of the global anthropogenic emis-
Suez Canal Economic Zone (SCZone) sions of ­SO2 and ­NO2, respectively, which contributes to
acid rain and eutrophication damaging the coastal waters
Heavy shipping traffic attributed to the recent strong growth (Sui et al. 2020). According to Egypt’s economy profile
in cargo throughput the Suez Canal proved the main pol- (https://​www.​thegl​obale​conomy.​com/​Egypt/​Port_​traff​i c/,
lution source for most highly populated areas located in last accessed 15 May 2022), the number of 20-foot con-
the economic SCZone, including Ain Sukhna, Suez, tainers passing through the Suez Canal ports in 2000–2019
Ismailiya, and Port Said cities. Trends from the in situ data averaged 5.27 million containers with a minimum of 1.34
confirmed plume areas sustaining deteriorating air quality million containers in 2002 and a maximum of 7.9 million

13
1560 Air Quality, Atmosphere & Health (2023) 16:1543–1570

Fig. 10  In situ ­PM10 maps of

monthly, seasonal, and annual
concentrations (µg m.−3)

13
Air Quality, Atmosphere & Health (2023) 16:1543–1570 1561

Fig. 11  Monitoring stations attaining significant increasing (red) and decreasing (blue) Mann–Kendall trends and their slopes for the ­PM10 pol-
lutant (µg m.−3)

13
1562 Air Quality, Atmosphere & Health (2023) 16:1543–1570

Fig. 12  Spatial distribution of

the detected monotonic trends
annual change rate of the P ­ M10
(µg m.−3)

containers in 2014. The latest value from 2019 is 6.31 health and the environment in the port area. These pollut-
million containers. For comparison, the world average in ants have caused over 64,000 premature deaths concentrated
2019 based on 152 countries is 5.88 million containers. mostly in coastal port areas (Winnes and Fridell 2009) with
When petroleum fuels are combusted in ship’s engines, ships contributing greater than 10% to the acidification of
they emit the greenhouse gases (GHG) as oxides of sulfur, coastal areas. The Marine Environment Protection Commit-
nitrogen, and carbon (Seddiek and Elgohary 2014; IMO tee (MEPC) estimated that the number of premature deaths
2020a) that move by air mass pathways of the port wind due to SOx emissions between 2020 and 2025 would be
sector (Song et al. 2022), posing severe negative effects on over 570,000 (IMO 2020a). According to the EMEP sta-
tus report (2019), emissions from ships account for more
than 50% of ­NO2 in central parts of the Baltic Sea area as
Table 6  Descriptive statistics of averages of MERRA-2 against the well as a substantial percentage in coastal zones, including
in situ air pollutants at all stations the Baltic states (Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania). Carbon
Variable Minimum Maximum Mean Std. deviation monoxide and carbon dioxide are the main products of fuel
combustion. The marine industry is responsible for 3.1% of
MERRA-2 SO2 3 13 10 3
the global annual anthropogenic C ­ O2 emissions and 2.8%
CO 81 185 149 35
of the global annual anthropogenic GHG emissions (Sui
O3 271 296 288 5
et al. 2020). It was also estimated that the emissions will
PM1 12 81 48 28
increase from 50 to 250% by 2050 as marine trade grows
PM2.5 52 99 75 12
(IMO 2020b).
PM10 80 178 142 32
To reduce ship emissions, the IMO (2020a, b) (i.e., Interna-
In-situ SO2 2 31 15 7
tional Maritime Organization 2020 policy) regulations came
NO2 8 77 30 14
into effect on 1 January 2020, limiting the sulfur content in
PM10 68 329 133 48

13
Air Quality, Atmosphere & Health (2023) 16:1543–1570 1563

Fig. 13  Plots of a Violin and Box of the MERRA-2 air pollutants, plots of in situ against MERRA-2 ­SO2 and ­PM10, and b percentile

Table 7  Pearson’s correlation Variables MERRA-2 In situ

coefficients and best-fitted
determination coefficients of SO2 CO O3 PM1 PM2.5 PM10 SO2 NO2 PM10
MERRA-2 against the in situ
air pollutants averages at all r MERRA-2 SO2 1
stations CO 0.95 1
O3 0.20 0.15 1
PM1 0.92 0.88 0.21 1
PM2.5 − 0.17 − 0.09 − 0.47 − 0.16 1
PM10 0.90 0.84 0.23 0.95 − 0.25 1
In-situ SO2 0.13 0.10 − 0.22 0.22 0.33 0.13 1
NO2 0.55 0.51 − 0.03 0.50 0.20 0.54 0.27 1
PM10 0.17 0.30 − 0.31 0.02 0.47 0.04 0.14 0.40 1
2
R MERRA-2 SO2 1
CO 0.91 1
O3 0.04 0.02 1
PM1 0.85 0.78 0.04 1
PM2.5 0.03 0.01 0.22 0.03 1
PM10 0.80 0.71 0.05 0.91 0.06 1
In-situ SO2 0.02 0.01 0.05 0.05 0.11 0.02 1
NO2 0.30 0.26 0.00 0.25 0.04 0.30 0.07 1
PM10 0.03 0.09 0.10 0.00 0.22 0.00 0.02 0.15 1

Strong correlation coefficients greater than 0.5 are shown in italics

13
1564 Air Quality, Atmosphere & Health (2023) 16:1543–1570

Fig. 14  Regression analysis of air pollutants for the MERRA-2 against the in situ data

marine bunker fuels to 0.5 wt% from the previous 3.5 wt%. limit of 15 μg ­m−3 and Egypt’s background of 70 μg ­m−3
The IMO (2020a, b) regulations made compulsory following an as stipulated in the environmental law no. 4/1994 and the
amendment to Annex VI of the International Convention for the executive regulations were approved on October 2005.
Prevention of Pollution from Ships (MARPOL) require plenty Trends from MERRA-2 data indicated the strongest
of liquid fuels, including high energy density, specific viscosi- trends of P ­ Mx with range levels of 0.3–0.6 μg ­m−3 ­year−1
ties, flash points, pour points, lubricity, stability, and availability ­( P M 1 ) , 3 . 9 – 4 . 6 μ g ­m − 3 ­ye a r − 1 ­( P M 2 . 5 ) , a n d
(Vedachalam et al. 2022). These new regulations have signifi- 3.4–4.2 μg ­m −3 ­year −1 ­( PM 10). Air pollution in Aswan
cantly reduced S ­ O2 and ­NH4+ concentrations around world resulted from many combined factors: recent rapid indus-
ports (Song et al. 2022; Zhang et al. 2022a; Zhang et al. 2022b). trial development, an increase in the number of Nile
cruises, desert dust, in addition to the fuel consumption
Aswan industrial zone for electricity from power plants and vehicle exhaust. A
few examples of the air pollution sources in the Aswan
As per the in situ data over Aswan, ­S O 2 annual rates Governorate include factories owned by Egyptian Chemi-
reached 0.023 μg ­m−3 ­year−1, while CO saw annual rates of cal Industries (KIMA), Sugar and Particleboard Wood
0.26 μg ­m−3 ­year−1. Also, P­ Mx exceeded 200 μg ­m−3 at all Factory in Kom Ombo (capacity of 17,000 tons/year),
time intervals, making Aswan the most particulate matter Edfu Sugar and Integrated Industries Company (150,000
polluted area in Egypt, in violation of the WHO annual mean tons/year), Idfu Ferrosilicon Factory (40,000 tons/year),

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Air Quality, Atmosphere & Health (2023) 16:1543–1570 1565

El-Nasr for Mining Co., and Misr-Edfu for Pulp and Independent News report 2019). According to news reports
Paper, and the Sugar factory in Kom Ombo (IDA 2022). (ARIJ 2020), the lung hospital in Kom Ombo registered 1113
In the industrial zone built southeast of Aswan at the patients for treatment in 2019: 180 cases of chronic obstructive
Aswan- al-Alaqi road, on an area of about 220 feddans respiratory disease, 74 cases of pulmonary fibrosis, and 721
and including 461 production units, 566 small-scale patients with bronchitis, impacted by pollution from the Kom
industries are registered for maintenance of vehicles, Umbo Sugar Factory. Also, in the same year, Edfu Hospital,
machinery for irrigation, metal work and car services, 50 km away from the city of Kom Ombo, recorded 917 cases
carpentry, electrical services, textile production, food of lung diseases: out of which 30 cases of lung obstruction, 13
production, and tile manufacturing. Mining and quar- cases of pulmonary fibrosis, and 311 patients with bronchitis
rying in Aswan are another major source of air pollu- impacted mostly by fumes and air pollution from sugar, fer-
tion. Egyptian Chemical Industries (KIMA) is located rosilicon, phosphate, and paper pulp factories in Idfu.
5 km east of the city of Aswan. Its main products are
ammonium-nitrate fertilizer (260,000 tonnes/year) and
ferrosilicon used for steel production (6600 tonnes/year). Conclusions
NOx and ferrosilicon dust emitted from its facilities are
the major air quality environmental concerns (EEAA The study offers the initial understandings from a thorough
REPORTS 2000). quantitative strategy to address the patterns and trends of
Rehabilitation of Kima Fertilizers Company (Ammo- long-term air pollution in Egypt. The study described the
nia-Urea) in Aswan has been started in 2019, through the variations in air pollution during a 93-month period (August
establishment of a 60-acre full industrial city in Aswan, 2013-April 2021). With the primary goal of identifying the
after the aging of the current plant to produce 1220 tons loads due to climatic/anthropogenic factors combined to
of ammonia, of which 900 tons of urea are produced exacerbate the health and environmental effects of air pollu-
daily at the newly constructed Kima plant with a total of tion, the total accumulated seasonal and annual variabilities,
570 thousand tons/year and 300 tons of ammonia go to as well as the identification of monotonic climatic trends
the old factory to produce 120 thousand tons/year of low over Egypt, have been examined.
and high-density ammonium nitrates, and 100 thousand When MERRA-2 air quality products, with spatiotem-
tons of nitrogen ammonium nitrate fertilizers (KIMA- poral coverage of the nation, overcome the drawbacks of
Aswan 2019). There were 300 Nile Cruisers working
between Aswan and Luxor, along the Nile River from
Aswan down to Cairo (EEAA Reports 2008).
Emissions from these sources along with the desert and
road dust have been reported to lead to adverse health effects
(Gupta et al. 2022a, b a & b). News reports in 2019 stated
that eighty-four students suffered nonlethal suffocation at
a Secondary School in the Mahmoudiya waterway area
due to fumes from the Old Kima factory in Aswan (Egypt

Table 8  Evaluation of the pairwise records of the MERRA-2 against

the in situ ­SO2 and PM10 air pollutants
SO2 (n = 2824) PM10 (n = 2578)
In situ MERRA-2 In situ MERRA-2

Min 0 1.53 12 47
Max 187 15.61 437 335
Mean 15.23 9.50 138 141
Std. dev 11 3.46 58 45
Median 13 9 129 139
25% percentile 8 7 95 104
75% percentile 19 13 172 169
Coeff. var 74 36 42 32
RMSE 13.38 69.46 Fig. 15  Regression analysis of MERRA-2 against the in situ for the
­SO2 and ­PM10 of all pairwise records at all stations

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1566 Air Quality, Atmosphere & Health (2023) 16:1543–1570

the few and the spatiotemporal discontinuity of the in situ best-informed decisions in forecasting events and assessing
pollutants monitored, integration of the in situ and satellite- conditions in near real-time to make timely decisions.
based reanalysis of MERRA-2 proved promising. The sea- Homogeneity tests established the validity of the data
sonal and annual averages showed good correlation and pro- for pollutant spatiotemporal loadings variability. For this,
vided best-fit estimates at high significance and confidence trend turning point and the potential month and year in
levels, proving validity for decisions related to long-term which significant pollution increases or decreases began are
change risk reduction and management (Vera et al. 2010). determined. This is critical for the interpretation of climate
At local scales, i.e., at hourly, daily, and monthly intervals, and anthropogenic inputs. The presence and magnitude of
natural variations can obscure the impacts of human-induced trends over time enabled a better understanding of the pol-
climate change (Martel et al. 2018). Also, the in situ data, lution plumes distributed in space and time, and their annual
being ground-truthed, clarified trends and magnitudes not rates of increase are understood. Furthermore, Egypt’s air
inherent in the MERRA-2 counterparts. P ­ M10 trends in the pollution control policies have contributed to a significant
Upper Egypt stations were only detected by the MERRA-2 reduction in AOD in most areas of the country, a trend that
data analysis. Furthermore, the integration of results from is particularly evident in many monitoring stations across
ground-based and satellite-based tools allows for a more the country that showed varying improvement rates and
comprehensive understanding and adaptation of the differ- time stamps due to the implementation of the toughest-ever
ent impacts associated with variability and change to make clean air measures in line with environmental legislation,

Fig. 16  Population density as of 2020 of the GWpv4.11 at 1-km resolution; histogram (left) and heat map (right)

13
Air Quality, Atmosphere & Health (2023) 16:1543–1570 1567

Table 9  Pearson’s coefficient of correlation (r) and determination (R2) of MERRA-2 and the in situ air pollutants averages against population
density at all stations

(n = 91) PD 1 km PD 5 km PD 30 km PD 55 km PD 110 km
r R2 r R2 r R2 r R2 r R2
SO2 0.21 0.04 0.35 0.12 0.34 0.11 0.33 0.11 0.32 0.1
CO 0.2 0.04 0.33 0.11 0.32 0.1 0.31 0.1 0.3 0.09
MERRA-2

O3 0.1 0.01 0.16 0.03 0.16 0.03 0.16 0.03 0.16 0.03
PM1 0.3 0.09 0.45 0.2 0.43 0.19 0.43 0.18 0.42 0.18
PM2.5 -0.28 0.08 -0.24 0.06 -0.25 0.06 -0.25 0.06 -0.24 0.06
PM10 0.31 0.1 0.46 0.22 0.46 0.21 0.45 0.2 0.44 0.19
SO2 -0.08 0.01 0.01 0 0.01 0 0.01 0 0.01 0
In-situ

NO2 0.21 0.05 0.32 0.11 0.33 0.11 0.33 0.11 0.34 0.12
PM10 -0.13 0.02 -0.12 0.01 -0.12 0.01 -0.11 0.01 -0.11 0.01
At a significance level of 99%, values are highlighted from lowest (blue) to largest (red) where PD is the population density/km.2 as of 1 July
2020

where air quality is one of the key aspects of Law 4/1994, With the ever-increasing housing, industrial, and ship-
although ­SO2, CO, ­NO2, ­O3, and particulate matter ­(PMx) ping development along with the vehicular traffic and air-
are still the primary pollutants with notable spatio-temporal borne particles affected by the varying climatic conditions
patterns and trends in Egypt. Therefore, this study strongly of desertic regions and the generally low levels of control
advises retaining or extending stricter policies in the future over emissions, the air pollution situation is sure to dete-
for sustaining good air quality. The COVID-19 lockdown on riorate further in Egypt’s major cities, and especially in the
various in situ air pollution parameters is very clear as there GCMA, SCZone, and Aswan. This is underpinned by the
is a significant decrease in the annual average of all pollut- intense motor vehicle traffic and the high density of indus-
ants in 2020 relative to the preceding years. trial activities as well as the open burning of solid waste in

Fig. 17  Pearson’s coefficients of

best-fit linear determination (R2)
of the MERRA-2 and the in situ
air pollutant averages against
population density at all stations
in the monitored period

13
1568 Air Quality, Atmosphere & Health (2023) 16:1543–1570

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