Unit 14 Project Scheduling and PERT-CPM (1)
Unit 14 Project Scheduling and PERT-CPM (1)
14.1 Introduction
In the previous unit, simulation Monte-Carlo method, we studied about the
Monte-Carlo simulation. We also learnt about the various problems of this
method, the applications of the simulation, the advantages and the
limitations of the simulation. In this unit, project scheduling and PERT-CPM
in operations research management, we will study about the basic
difference between PERT and CPM. We will also learn about PERT and
CPM network components, determination of floats and project management.
Project management has evolved as a new field with the development of
two analytic techniques for planning, scheduling and controlling projects.
These are the project evaluation and review technique (PERT) and the
critical path method (CPM). PERT and CPM are basically time-oriented
methods in the sense that they both lead to the determination of a time
schedule.
Projects may be defined as a collection of interrelated activities (or tasks)
which must be completed in a specified time according to a specified
Solved problem 1
Construct the arrow diagram comprising activities A, B, C …….. and L
such that the following relationships are satisfied:
1) A, B and C the first activities of the project, can start simultaneously.
2) A and B precede D.
3) B precedes E, F and H.
4) F and C precede G.
5) E and H precede I and J.
6) C, D, F and J precede K.
7) K precedes L.
8) I, G and L are the terminal activities of the project.
Solution
Figure 14.5 depicts an analysis network.
We can now identify the critical path activities using the results of the
forward and backward passes. An activity (i, j) lies on the critical path if it
satisfies the following conditions:
ESi = LCi
ESj = LCj
ESj-ESi = LCj-LCi = Dij
These conditions actually indicate that there is no float or slack time
between the earliest start and the latest start of the activity. Thus, the
activity must be critical.
In the arrow diagram these are characterised by same numbers within
rectangles and triangles at each of the head and tail events. The difference
between the numbers in rectangles or triangles at the head event, and the
number within rectangles or triangles at the tail event is equal to the duration
of the activity. Thus, we will get a critical path, which is a chain of connected
activities, spanning the network from start to end.
Solved problem 2
Consider a network which stands from node 1 and terminates at node 6,
the time required to perform each activity is indicated on the arrows.
Figure 14.6 depicts an analysis network.
Solution
Let us start with the forward pass with ESi = 0.
Since there is only one incoming activity (1, 2) to event 2 with D12 = 3.
ES2 = ES1+ DS2 = 0+3=3.
Let us consider the end 3, since there is only one incoming activity (2, 3)
to event 3, with D23 = 3.
ES3 = ES2+ D23 = 3+3 = 6.
To obtain ES4, since there are two activities A (3, 4) and (2, 4) to the
event 4 with D24 = 2 and D34 = 0.
ES4= maxi=2, 3 {ESi + De4}
= max {ES2 +D24, ES3 + D34}
= max {3+2, 6+0} = 6
Similarly, ES5 = 13 and ES6 = 19.
This completes the forward pass.
In the backward pass we have
LC6= 19 = ES6
LC5 = 19-6 = 13
LC4= min J = 5, 6 {LCj – D4j} = 6
LC3 = 6, LC2 = 3 and LC1 = 0
Therefore, activities (1, 2), (2, 3) (3, 4) (4, 5) (5, 6) are critical and (2, 4)
(4, 6), (3, 6), are non-critical.
Thus, the activities (1, 2), (2, 3), (3, 4), (4, 5) and (5, 6) define the critical
path which is the shortest possible time to complete the project i.e., 19
days.
14.3.3 Determination of floats
Once the determination of the critical path is done, we have to compute the
floats for the non-critical activities. For the critical activities this float is zero.
Before showing how floats are determined, it is necessary to define two new
times that are associated with each activity. These are as follows:
Latest start (LS) time and
Earliest completion (EC) time
We can define activity (i, j) for these two types of time by:
LSij= LCj – Dij
ECij = ESi + Dij
There are two important types of floats namely:
Total float (TF)
Free float (FF)
The total float TFij for activity (i, j) is the difference between the maximum
time available to perform the activity (= LCj – ESi) and its duration (= Dij)
TFij = LCj – ESi– Dij = LCj – ECij = LSij – ESi
The free float is defined by assuming that all the activities start as early as
possible. In this case FFij for activity (i, j) is the excess of available time
(= ESi – ESi) over its deviation (= Dij); i.e.
FFij = ESi – ESi - Dij
Note: For critical activities float is zero. Therefore, the free float must be
zero when the total float is zero. However, the converse is not true, that is, a
non-critical activity may have zero free floats.
Let us consider the example taken before the critical path calculations. The
floats for the non-critical activities can be summarised as depicted in the
table 14.1.
Table 14.1 Floats for Non-critical Activities
Dura- Earliest Latest Total Free
Activity
tion Start Completion Start Completion Float Float
(i j)
Dij ESi ECij LSij LCj TFij FFij
(1, 2) 3 0 3 0 3 0* 0
(2, 3) 3 3 6 3 6 0* 0
(2, 4) 2 3 5 4 6 1 1
(3, 4) 0 6 6 6 6 0* 0
(3, 5) 3 6 9 10 13 4 4
(3, 6) 2 6 8 17 19 11 11
(4, 5) 7 6 13 6 13 0* 0
(4, 6) 5 6 11 14 19 8 8
(5, 6) 6 13 19 13 19 0* 0
Note: Total float = ESij = LFij - ESij
Free float = Total float - - Head slack
* Critical activity *
Solved problem 3
A project consists of a series of tasks A, B, C, – D, – E, F, G, H, I with the
following relationships:
W < X,Y means X and Y cannot start until W is completed
X,Y < W means W cannot start until both X and Y are completed
With this notation construct the network diagram having the following
constraints A < D, E; B, D < F; C < G, B < H; F, G < I.
Also find the minimum time of completion of the project, the critical path,
and the total floats of each task, when the time (in days) of completion of
each task is as follows:
Task: A B C D E F G H I
Time: 23 8 20 16 24 18 19 4 10
Solution
Figure 14.7 depicts an analysis network.
(1, 2) 20 0 20 18 38 18 0
(1, 3) 23 0 23 0 23 0* 0
(1, 4) 8 0 8 31 39 31 31
(2, 5) 19 20 39 38 57 18 0
(3, 4) 16 23 39 23 39 0* 0
(3, 7) 24 23 47 43 67 20 20
(4, 5) 0 39 39 57 57 10 0
(4, 6) 18 39 57 39 57 0* 0
(5, 6) 0 39 39 57 57 18 18
(5, 7) 4 39 43 63 67 24 24
(6, 7) 10 37 67 57 67 0* 0
Critical path is 1 – 3 – 4 – 6 – 7.
Therefore,
ab
2m
2 a b 4m
D
3 6
We can use this estimate to study the single estimate D in the critical path
calculation. These formulae are derived from beta distribution.
The variance of each activity denoted by V is defined by,
2
ba
Variance V =
6
The earliest expected times for the node i is denoted by E (i). For each
node i, E(i) is obtained by taking the sum of the expected times of all
activities leading to the node i, when more than one activity leads to a node
i, then the greatest of all E(i) is chosen. Let i be the earliest occurrence
time of the event i, we can consider i as a random variable. Assuming that
all activities of the network are statistically independent, we can calculate
the mean and the variance of i as follows:
E {i } = ESi and Var{i } = Vk
k
Thus we have,
E (Lj) = E (a)
E (i) = L (Lj) – Dij
if only one path events from j to i or if it is the minimum of {E [Lj) – Dij] for all j
for which the activities (i, j) are defined.
Note: The probability distribution of times for completing an event can be
approximated by the normal distribution due to central limit theorem.
Since i represents the earliest occurrence time, event will meet a certain
schedule time STi (specified by an analyst) with probability
Solved problem 4
A project is represented by the network depicted in figure 14.8 and has
the following data:
Solution
Using the formula we can calculate expected activity times and variance
as depicted in table 14.4.
1 b a 2
D (a b 4m) V
6 6
Table 14.4 Earliest and Latest Expected Time for Events
Activity A B m v
1-2 5 10 8 7-8 0.696
1-3 18 22 20 20-00 0.444
1-4 26 40 33 33-0 5.429
2-5 16 20 18 18-0 0.443
2-6 15 25 20 20-0 2.780
3-6 6 12 9 9-0 1.000
4-7 7 12 10 9-8 0.694
5-7 7 9 8 8-0 0.111
6-7 3 5 4 4-0 0.111
Forward pass
E1 = 0 E2 = 7.8 E3 = 20 E4 = 33 E5 = 25.8 E6 = 29
E7 = 42.8
Backward pass
L7 = 42.8 L6 = 38.8 L5 = 34.8 L4 = 33.0 L3 = 29.8 L2 = 16.8
L1 = 0.
The E-values and L-values are depicted in figure 14.9.
14.5 Summary
Critical path computations are quite simple, yet they provide valuable
information that simplifies the scheduling of complex projects.
The result is that PERT-CPM techniques enjoy tremendous popularity
among practitioners in the field.
The usefulness of the techniques is further enhanced by the availability
of specialised computer systems for executing, analysing and controlling
network projects.
14.6 Glossary
Uncertainty: volatility.
Task: activity that has to be completed within the specified time.
Latest start (LS) time: the latest time that an activity can begin without
delaying the project completion time.
14.8 Answer
Terminal Questions
1. There are no essential differences between PERT and CPM as both of
them share in common the determination of a critical path. For more
details refer to section 14.2
2. Probability considerations are incorporated in PERT by assuming that
the time estimate for each activity is based on three time estimates of
optimistic time, pessimistic time and most likely time. For more details
refer to section 14.4
3. b) 20 weeks c) A – D – H – I - J . For more details refer section 14.3
4. b) A – D – G – H c) 0.6591 d) 34.7 weeks. For more details refer
section 14.4
Manipal University Jaipur Page No. 292
Operations Research Unit 14
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