© 2025 The Authors Journal of Water and Climate Change Vol 16 No 2, 430 doi: 10.2166/wcc.2024.

445

Shallow groundwater salinization risks under climate change: FEFLOW model application
in Cebala Borj-Touil irrigation zone, northern Tunisia

Houda Rzigui a, *, Wolfgang Bogackib, Georg Hörmannc and Mohamed Hachichaa

a
National Institute of Rural Engineering, Waters and Forest, Carthage University, 2080 BP 10 Ariana, Tunisia
b
Department of Civil Engineering, Koblenz University of Applied Sciences, Koblenz, Germany
c
Department of Hydrology and Water Resources Management, Institute of Natural Resource Conservation, Kiel University, Kiel, Germany
*Corresponding author. E-mail: [email protected]

HR, 0000-0002-1667-6414

ABSTRACT

The Cebala Borj-Touil irrigation perimeter in the low valley of the Medjerda River is marked by a shallow saline groundwater rise. The seasonal
water salinity shows a high spatial and temporal variation. This study introduces a novel methodological approach dealing with the data scar-
city problem in a complex deltaic area, using only available data and numerical models. The numerical model FEFLOW was used to simulate
the shallow groundwater flow and salt transfer. Several simulations were run to explore future trends of groundwater salinity under different
climate change (CC) conditions. The results show a significant increase in water salinity under all the climatic scenarios. A 15% decrease in
precipitation leads to an average increase in salinity of 10–15 g/l. The significant rise in sea level also affects the salinization process. The
intrusion of seawater results in concentrations of salinity between 16 and 20 g/l. In addition, the quality of irrigation water has a marked
impact, contributing to a significant increase in salinity, reaching a maximum of 15 g/l. These concerning results are to be expected, as
the coastal study area is characterized by a semi-arid climate and is increasingly influenced by anthropogenic factors, including irrigation
practices and drainage deficiency.

Key words: climate change, irrigation perimeter, numerical modeling, salinity, shallow groundwater, Tunisia

HIGHLIGHTS

• Coastal irrigated areas are vulnerable to salinization.

• Numerical modeling addresses the issue of spatial and temporal variation in groundwater salinity.
• The FEFLOW model assesses groundwater salinization.
• Climate change is exacerbating water salinization through increased evaporation, reduced precipitation, and sea level rise.
• All climate scenarios indicated a significant rise in groundwater salinity.

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 Journal of Water and Climate Change Vol 16 No 2, 431

GRAPHICAL ABSTRACT

1. INTRODUCTION
Effects of climate change (CC) on the quality and quantity of water resources are becoming more and more visible (Barica
1972; Leavesley 1994; Colombani et al. 2016; Mastrocicco & Colombani 2021). Arid and semi-arid regions are very vulner-
able to these changes due to the high evaporation, which leads to a progressive depletion of aquifers, particularly shallow
groundwater (Barica 1972). Coastal aquifers are highly vulnerable because of changes in groundwater recharge and seawater
intrusion (Wang et al. 2023; Ansari et al. 2024). In the case of irrigated perimeters, the anthropogenic processes contributing
to the groundwater salinization are mainly summarized in the rise of the groundwater table due to inappropriate irrigation,
the failure of the drainage system, and the disturbance of the natural cycle of the soil leaching by the creation of wells (Foster
& Chilton 2003). Several studies analyze the relationship between irrigation water quality and groundwater salinization in
similar cases (El oumlouki et al. 2018; Sefiani et al. 2019). In addition, the choice of climate models is a major challenge.
Information about CC at the regional scale is essential to obtaining accurate results about the environmental impacts of
CC. Recently, scaling-down methods have enabled the extraction of results from global climate models at finer scales
(Giorgi 2008). The simulations of the different climatic scenarios confirm the high coastal groundwater vulnerability to sal-
inization (Barica 1972; Leavesley 1994; Colombani et al. 2016; Mastrocicco & Colombani 2021). The impact of the different
combined processes on water salinization can be analyzed with numerical modeling (Li et al. 2019), even for complex cases
or when observed data are scarce and poor (Baccouche et al. 2024). To analyze the salinization of the shallow groundwater,
the perimeter of Cebala Borj-Touil was selected, which is irrigated by treated wastewater. In Cebala Borj-Touil, it is not con-
firmed that irrigation is the origin of the groundwater salinization. Only a few studies have been conducted in this region due
to a lack of data on the salinity in the aquifer. However, all studies confirm the presence of extremely salty shallow ground-
water (Hachicha et al. 1990; Hachicha & Job 1994; Hassine 2005; Dahmouni et al. 2017; Rzigui et al. 2022a, 2022b). To
understand these developments, models are used to address data quality issues and create a reliable model of salinity that
can be used for predictive simulations. The FEFLOW model was selected for a 2D simulation of flow and salt transport
under complex initial and boundary conditions. The modeling approach is divided into two parts: the flow model and the
salt transport model. The transport model depends on the calibrated and validated flow model and has several uncertainties.
In the study of Bahri et al. (2015) and Rzigui et al. (2022a, 2022b), the numerical models MODFLOW and FEFLOW were
applied for the simulation and optimization of the Cebala Borj-Touil perimeter drainage system. The results confirmed that
the drainage system is not working anymore. Water quality and the impact of CC on groundwater salinization remain
unknown. The objectives of this paper are the modeling of the variation of the salinization of the shallow groundwater
and the estimation of its evolution under CC conditions. This research presents an innovative methodological framework

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that addresses issues related to data scarcity by utilizing only the available data and numerical models to investigate the
impact of CC on a complex deltaic coastal shallow groundwater scenario.

2. MATERIALS AND METHODS

2.1. Study area
The Cebala Borj-Touil irrigation perimeter lies in the Ariana district (northern Tunisia); it is a large plain of the Lower Valley
of the Medjerda River with an area of 3,200 ha (Figure 1).

Figure 1 | Study area location.

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Since 1990, irrigation and drainage systems have been installed. The efficiency of the drainage network has progressively
deteriorated over the last three decades. The natural drainage system is composed of two rivers, the Khelidj and the El Maleh
wadis. The climate of the study area is semi-arid, with an average annual rainfall of 450 mm and a potential evapotranspira-
tion of 1,300 mm·year
1. The Cebala soils are composed of loamy clay on Quaternary alluvial deposits. The soil salinity varies
between 2.0 and 3.5 dS·m
1 at the soil surface layer.
The shallow groundwater table ranges from 0.2 to 1.8 m above sea level (ASL), with a high electrical conductivity varying
from 10 to 20 dS·m
1.

2.2. Model data

The first step in setting up the groundwater model involves collecting geological and hydrological data to create a represen-
tative conceptual model. The database included climate information along with data on aquifer characteristics and
boundaries, well extractions, irrigation doses, the depth of the water table, and groundwater quality. The data collection pro-
cess involved sources such as research and regional institutes from the Tunisian Agricultural Ministry, the National
Meteorology Institute (NMI), and the National Office of Mines, in addition to relevant research related to the study area.
The NMI data include parameters like wind speed, air temperature, humidity, rainfall, and evaporation. These measurements
refer to the climatic stations at Cherfech and Carthage and have formed a data series since 1970. Rainfall and evaporation
measurements were used in the calculation of the groundwater net recharge. The synthesis of geological data was based
on previous studies and focused on the characterization of the stratigraphic units of the site to define the geometry of the
aquifer. Based on previous work and monitoring of the groundwater and soil parameters at the laboratories, the character-
istics of the aquifer were defined: permeability, total porosity, root depth, and piezometric variations. Hernot’s (1949)
study was the basis for developing the reference state of the water table. In terms of quality, the investigation focused on
the historical trends of groundwater and irrigation water salinity. Climate data are available on a daily basis, while piezo-
metric and salinity measurements are seasonal and less consistent throughout the observation period from 1990 to 2007.
Time series and spatial data analysis were performed using R 3.6.2 (R Core Team) and ArcGIS (Esri) (10.2.2).

2.3. Reference salinity map

The model runs require an initial salinity map as a reference, which should be based on observations. Unfortunately, it was
not possible to set up a map for the reference year (y) of the flow model (1949). The dispersion of data and the considerable
variability in measurements led to the decision to select the year 1990 as the initial reference for salinity. This period was
selected based on the availability of data. In 1990, the monitoring network for the water table of the Cebala Borj-Touil irriga-
tion perimeter comprised approximately 20 reliable monitoring points (Figure 2). Currently, most of the piezometers are
either absent or nonfunctional. The irrigated area of Cebala Borj-Touil has been transformed into a site for experimentation
since 2013. The latest research conducted by Dahmouni in 2018 involved groundwater quality data obtained from the
INRGREF laboratories.
A reference salinity map was constructed through interpolation using Geographic Information System (GIS) method-
ologies. The approach taken in formulating the reference state incorporated multiple processing techniques, which
enabled the development of a salinity map with a smooth distribution, thus minimizing local measurement heterogeneity.
The resulting continuous and regular spatial structure is identified as the most suitable representation of the aquifer’s salinity
for the year 1990 (Figure 3).
The model boundaries have been modified and extended to reliable boundary conditions.

2.4. Implementation of the transport model

Using FEFLOW, the flow model was calibrated, validated, and simulated in a transient state. The numerical model was
chosen after a thorough analysis of the flow model simulation under complex conditions, including the deltaic area charac-
teristics, the existence of a drainage system, the data quality, and the very shallow aquifer. FEFLOW has the capacity for
flexible meshing, along with the ability to refine the mesh in specific areas, which offers a notable advantage. This feature
makes FEFLOW ideal for modeling domains at various scales (Sinaba et al. 2009; Luo et al. 2013). In FEFLOW, the govern-
ing flow equation for saturated flow in saturated conditions is:

k
u¼
(rp þ rgrz)
m

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Figure 2 | Location of piezometers in 1990.

Figure 3 | Reference salinity map for the year 1990.

where u is the Darcy’s velocity vector (m·s⁻¹), μ is the dynamic viscosity of the fluid (kg·m⁻¹·s⁻¹), k is the intrinsic permeability
of the medium (m2), p is the pressure (kg·m⁻2·s⁻2), ρ is the fluid density (kg·m⁻³), g is the gravitational acceleration (m·s⁻2), z is
the elevation defined along a vertical ascending axis (m).

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According to Koskinen et al. (1996), the equations governing solute transport in saturated conductive media within
FEFLOW are defined by the model proposed by Huyakorn & Pinder (1983), which describes the concentration C
(kg·m
1) as follows:

@c
r(Drc)
r(qc) þ Qin cin
Qout C ¼ ff
@t
where c is the concentration (kg·m
3), D is the dispersion tensor (including convection and diffusion) (m2·s
1), u is the Darcy
velocity (m·s
1), Qin is the source term (l·s
1), cin is the concentration of incoming water flow (kg·m
3), Qout is the sink (or
drain) term (l·s
1), wf is the porosity [
].
In this research, a high-resolution mesh was generated for the drainage network. The small size of the elements is necessary
to achieve a more accurate solution at the nodes defined by drainage conditions (Rao 2011). Also, FEFLOW has the best per-
formance to interpolate maps within the finite elements using three interpolation methods with their respective property
settings: inverse distance, kriging, and Akima.
The results of the flow model simulation were presented in a previous paper that aimed to evaluate the drainage system
performance and the scenarios for the rehabilitation of the perimeter (Rzigui et al. 2022a, 2022b). The flow model simulation
shows that a water logging problem is present in the major parts of the perimeter due to the drainage system deficiency and
the low slope. Several management scheme scenarios were simulated. The three principal scenarios include: the drainage
system efficiency improvement by increasing the drain conductance from 10
5/s to 10
4/s (scenario 1), the reduction of
the water irrigation amount by applying a revised net recharge for the simulations where the new recharge rates are deter-
mined based on a 70% decrease in irrigation (scenario 2), and the third scenario illustrated the combination of the two
prior scenarios. The final scheme leads to resolving the problem, even in the lower parts.
The salt transport model is based on the flow model. Under transient conditions, the transport parameters are porosity,
molecular diffusion, and longitudinal and transverse dispersivity. Salt transport in the groundwater is considered non-reac-
tive. Boundary conditions are defined by a Dirichlet condition at the North boundaries (Medjerda wadi) and the east
boundary (sea) with a salinity of 1.5 and 35 g/l, respectively. A homogenous initial concentration of 3.5 g/l has been assigned
to the entire domain. This salinity corresponds to the salinity of the irrigation water. The aquifer porosity varies from 0.3 to
0.35. The α dispersion of the medium is defined by the ratio of dispersion to pore velocity. Two components of dispersivity are
distinguished: longitudinal dispersivity (αL: in the direction of flow) and transverse dispersivity (αT: perpendicular to the flow
direction). The ratio of transverse to longitudinal dispersivity is estimated to be 0.1. A longitudinal and transverse dispersiv-
ities of 100 and 10 m, respectively, have been used. Molecular diffusion coefficient values range from 10–10 to 10
11 m2/s for a
non-reactive chemical species in clay placers.

3. RESULTS
3.1. Model calibration
Statistical parameters served as error criteria in the calibration and validation of the flow model, allowing for an evaluation of
the fit between observed and simulated groundwater data. The calibration process of the flow model was achieved with a
correlation coefficient of 0.98 and an root mean square (RMS) error of 0.51 m, indicating an appropriate match between
observed and calculated heads in 1949. A transient simulation was first run in 1990. The obtained correlation coefficient
of 0.85 shows a significant relationship between simulated and observed hydraulic levels all over 15 piezometers. After cali-
bration, the flow model was verified using a transient simulation from 1990 to 2017 showing a good agreement between the
computed and the observed heads of the transient models for the observation period 1990–2007 with a calculated mean RMS
error of 0.87 m. Due to the convective salt transport in the Cebala Borj-Touil aquifer, a steady-state solute transport model
calibration is not possible. The groundwater flux defined by the flow model is the main factor in the salinity distribution.
The calibration of the solute model was conducted using a transient calibrated flow model based on the reference salinity
map (Section 2.2).

3.2. Simulation of transient solute transport

The transport model was directly simulated in a transient state. Initially, the model was tested with porosity values ranging
from 0.25 to 0.35. A uniform porosity of 0.3 simulated a concentration similar to the measured values for the validation period
from 1990 to 2008 (Figure 4).

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Figure 4 | Validation of the transport model for the period 1990–2008.

The objective of this step was to calculate the salt concentration with the transient model and compare it with the measured
concentration. The model validation also included the spatial distribution of salt concentrations in 2018 (Figure 5). This sal-
inity map was used as the initial value map for the scenarios.
The water table salinity within the perimeter varies between 6.7 and 15 g/l. The salinity tends to increase from west to east
(boundary with the sea). The minimum salinity concentrations of 6.7 g/l are observed locally at the entrance of the Khelidj wadi.

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Figure 5 | Salinity map calculated for 2018.

3.3. Simulation of groundwater salinization scenarios under CC conditions

CC has an impact on rainfall distribution and sea level rise. Both factors strongly affect the coastal irrigation perimeter of
Cebala Borj-Touil. The impact of different CC scenarios on the evolution of groundwater salinization was simulated based
on the calculated salinity map for 2018. The scenarios are based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC)’s (2014) reports on CC in the Middle East-North Africa region. Three main representative pathways for the evolution
of greenhouse gas concentration in the 21st century (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5) are considered in the 5th IPCC assess-
ment report. The most pessimistic scenario RCP8.5 was adopted. Climate scenarios were simulated in the short term,
corresponding to 2050, due to the need for a fast forecast of the salinity evolution of the groundwater. The three main scen-
arios are: (1) a 15% decrease in precipitation (scenario 1), (2) a sea level rise of 0.2 m (scenario 2), and (3) a degradation of
irrigation water quality by increasing its salinity to 5 g/l (scenario 3). Simulation scenarios resulting from the combination of
scenarios 1 and 3, as well as scenarios 2 and 3 aim to evaluate the most severe influence of CC on groundwater salinization
(scenario 4).

3.3.1. Scenario 1: effect of decreased precipitation

The groundwater recharge was recalculated for a 15% decrease in precipitation until 2050. The result of the simulation is
represented as the spatial distribution of the salinity in 2050 (Figure 6).
The precipitation decrease increases salinity over almost the entire water table, except in the northwest boundary of the
perimeter where the average rise is about 1 g/l. However, the increase is greater in the remaining areas of the perimeter,
with a maximum increase in the southeast part where the calculated salinity exceeds 15 g/l. This can be explained by the
lack of a drainage network and the accumulation of water in those areas. This scenario shows a considerable impact of
CC on the general salinization of the aquifer.

3.3.2. Scenario 2: effect of sea level rise

Sea level rise also affects the surface aquifers of coastal areas. The saltwater infiltrates the soil and groundwater. In this paper,
a sea level rise of 0.2 m ASL is implemented in the model by imposing Cauchy-type conditions at the border with the sea.
Simulation results show a pronounced impact of sea level rise on groundwater salinization (Figure 7). The seawater intrusion
may change the salinity of the shallow groundwater from between 6.7 and 10 g/l to values between 16 and 20 g/l in 2050.

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Figure 6 | Calculated salinity (g/l) in 2050 with a 15% decrease in precipitation (scenario 1).

The absolute value of the increase depends on the distance of the observation point from the sea. Figure 7 shows the value
of two selected piezometers (piez) 2 and 17, located, respectively, 11 and 6.5 km from the sea.
The closer the piezometer is to the sea, the greater the impact of rising sea levels with an increase in water salinity of 66 and
74% for the observation points piez 2 and piez 17, respectively.

3.3.3. Scenario 3: effect of irrigation water degradation

The net recharge of the shallow groundwater is not only a function of precipitation but also of irrigation. CC will lead to
increased evaporation and seawater intrusion and, therefore, to an increased salinization of groundwater. These climate
effects will also change the quality of treated wastewater used for irrigation in Tunisia. The degradation of irrigation water
quality was considered in a scenario with rising irrigation water salinity. The estimated additional salt solute input is esti-
mated at 5 g/l, equivalent to 0.15 g/m2/day. The results are shown in Figure 8.
Irrigation with salty water will increase the groundwater salinity of piez 2, piez 28, and piez 41 to 148, 128, and 53%,
respectively (Figure 8). These results are alarming but remain not realistic because irrigation will stop as soon as the soil sal-
inity exceeds the salt tolerance of the plants.

3.3.4. Scenario 4: scenarios combination

Simulations were performed on additive scenarios that merged the degradation of irrigation water (scenario 3) with the two
previously analyzed scenarios 1 and 2.
Both scenarios simulated indicate a substantial effect on the acceleration of the salinization process in the soil. Results
show that the salt concentration throughout the entire perimeter is above 20 g/l (Figure 9).

4. DISCUSSION
In this paper, the salinization of the shallow groundwater in the irrigation perimeter of Cebala Borj-Touil was analyzed. In
coastal areas, the salinization of aquifers is also linked to natural factors such as the impacts of CC (Greene et al. 2016).
The dynamics of the groundwater salinity in Cebala Borj-Touil are complex. In all scenarios, an increase in the salinity of
groundwater from 17 to 150% is observed. Simulation results show good agreement with the literature. In coastal areas,
groundwater salinity would increase by 14% in 2050, due to CC impacts (Islam et al. 2020). This alarming development is
caused by the coastal location, the semi-arid climate, and the increased anthropogenic factors. Several studies (Akbari

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Figure 7 | Spatial distribution of salinity (a) and variation in salinity at piezometers piez 2 and piez 17 (b) with a sea level rise of 0.2 m
(scenario 2).

et al. 2020; Castaño-Sánchez et al. 2020; Soundala & Saraphirom 2022) highlight that the repercussions of sea level rise are
considerably more pronounced. The findings correspond with the outcomes observed in the Cebala case study. The impact of
reduced rainfall will be evident. The salinity of Cebala groundwater exceeds 10 g/l. An increase in the frequency and intensity
of rainfall enhances the downward movement of chemicals from the surface and vadose zone, leading to a greater influx of
suspended and dissolved solids into aquifers (Dao et al. 2024). CC will lead to an increase in soil and water salinity, which
will affect irrigation water quality. The decline in water irrigation quality highlights a crucial potential impact on the saliniza-
tion of the groundwater in the Cebala soil. Scenario 3 suggests that salinity could reach a maximum of 20 g/l by 2050.

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Figure 8 | Calculated salinity in 2050 (a) and variation in salinity at piezometers piez 2, 28, and 41 (b) with irrigation water concentration of
5 g/l (scenario 3).

The combined scenarios (scenario 4) indicate that the maximum soil salinity reaches 25 g/l. Such a condition may result in
unrealistic findings, as the negative impact on production would necessitate the cessation of irrigation. Such a situation is
present in various deltaic areas across numerous semi-arid and arid areas. The Cebala case study exemplifies the complexities
involved. Therefore, these results should be generalized with caution. The distinct nature of the region and the selected model
may result in particular outcomes. Despite its limitations in illustrating salt chemistry in soils, the model is still a practical tool
to deal with data scarcity. The FEFLOW model demonstrates a strong capability to simulate groundwater salinization in var-
ious climate scenarios (Lam et al. 2021; Yang et al. 2023). The validation of the model’s results remains challenging because
of the issues of data scarcity. Also, in all studies concerning the impacts of CC, there is always an inherent uncertainty in
climate scenarios due to an insufficient understanding of greenhouse gas emissions (Xepapadeas 2024). According to Noua-
ceur & Mură rescu (2016), current climate data from Morocco, Algeria, and Tunisia do not match the forecasts related to CC.

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Figure 9 | Spatial distribution of salinity: (a) (scenario 1 þ 3), (b) (scenario 2 þ 3).

Nevertheless, the findings from this research on the Cebala Borj-Touil case remain pertinent and advantageous for the inves-
tigation of irrigation perimeter rehabilitation.

5. CONCLUSION
The main objective of this work is the development of a transport model for the salinization of the Cebala Borj-Touil per-
imeter and its future evolution under the impact of CC. The validated flow model made it possible to map the spatial
distribution of salinity in 2018, which confirms the persistence of widespread salinization throughout the perimeter. The
results of the climate scenarios simulations show that the salinity of the groundwater tends to increase particularly under
the effect of sea level rise. A decrease of 15% in precipitation leads to an increase in salinity across nearly the entire aquifer,
averaging 10–15 g/l. The rise in sea level has a pronounced effect on the salinization process. Seawater intrusion leads to a
water concentration between 16 and 20 g/l. The impact of irrigation is very pronounced. High salt concentrations in irrigation
accelerate the salinity levels in groundwater, with increases exceeding 100%. All combined scenarios involving the use of irri-
gation water at a concentration of 5 g/l show a groundwater salinity level greater than 20 g/l by 2050 in the entire area.
Although these results are alarming, they remain largely hypothetical, as irrigation is usually stopped when soil salinity
begins to affect plant growth negatively. These results can serve as a basis for decision-making about the rehabilitation of
the perimeter. However, it is recommended to conduct more sophisticated studies aimed at reducing uncertainties by exam-
ining additional factors and updating the groundwater salinity measurements.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
We would like to acknowledge DHI-WASY for providing a FEFLOW license for the current study.

FUNDING
No funding was received for conducting this study.

AUTHOR CONTRIBUTIONS
R.H., M.H., and W.B. contributed to the study’s conception and design. Material preparation, data collection, and analysis
were performed by R.H. and H.G. The first draft of the manuscript was written by R.H. and all authors commented on pre-
vious versions of the manuscript. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.

DATA AVAILABILITY STATEMENT

All relevant data are included in the paper or its Supplementary Information.

CONFLICT OF INTEREST
The authors declare there is no conflict.

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First received 1 June 2024; accepted in revised form 4 December 2024. Available online 20 December 2024

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