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Weather Radar
Polarimetry
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 Weather Radar
Polarimetry
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Guifu Zhang

Boca Raton London New York

CRC Press is an imprint of the

Taylor & Francis Group, an informa business
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Version Date: 20160531

International Standard Book Number-13: 978-1-4398-6958-1 (Hardback)

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Library of Congress Cataloging‑in‑Publication Data

Names: Zhang, Guifu, 1962-

Title: Weather radar polarimetry.
Description: Boca Raton : Taylor & Francis, 2016. | “A CRC title.” | Includes
bibliographical references and index.
Identifiers: LCCN 2016005615 | ISBN 9781439869581 (alk. paper)
Subjects: LCSH: Radar meteorology. | Polarimetry. | Radar--Interference. |
Electromagnetic waves--Scattering. | Remote sensing.
Classification: LCC QC973.5 .Z43 2016 | DDC 551.63/53--dc23
LC record available at http://lccn.loc.gov/2016005615

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 Contents
Foreword ...................................................................................................................xi
Preface.................................................................................................................... xiii
Acknowledgments .................................................................................................... xv
About the Author ...................................................................................................xvii

Chapter 1 Introduction ..........................................................................................1

1.1 Historical Development .............................................................1
1.2 Objectives and Organization of the Book .................................4
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Chapter 2 Characterization of Hydrometeors .......................................................7

2.1 Physical and Statistical Properties.............................................7
2.1.1 Rain ..............................................................................9
2.1.1.1 Drop Size Distribution ................................ 10
2.1.1.2 Drop Shape ................................................. 16
2.1.1.3 Terminal Velocity ....................................... 18
2.1.2 Snow ...........................................................................20
2.1.2.1 Snow Particle Size Distribution .................. 21
2.1.2.2 Snow Bulk Density ..................................... 21
2.1.2.3 Melting Models ...........................................25
2.1.3 Hail and Graupel ........................................................ 29
2.1.4 Cloud Water and Ice ................................................... 30
2.2 Electromagnetic Properties ..................................................... 30
2.2.1 Dielectric Constant ..................................................... 31
2.2.2 Dielectric Constant for a Lossy Medium ...................34
2.2.3 Debye Formula ........................................................... 35
2.2.4 Dielectric Constant for a Mixture of Two and
Three Materials .......................................................... 38
Appendix 2A: Fitting Procedures for DSD Models:
Marshall–Palmer Distribution ................................................. 47
Appendix 2B: Fitting Procedures for DSD Models:
Exponential Distribution.......................................................... 47
Appendix 2C: Fitting Procedures for DSD Models:
Gamma Distribution ................................................................ 47

Chapter 3 Wave Scattering by a Single Particle.................................................. 51

3.1 Wave and Electromagnetic Wave ............................................ 51
3.1.1 Vibration and Wave .................................................... 51
3.1.2 Phasor Representation of Time-Harmonic Waves ..... 53
3.1.3 EM Wave .................................................................... 53

v
 vi Contents

3.1.4
Wave Polarization and Representation ....................... 55
3.1.4.1 Linear Polarization ..................................... 57
3.1.4.2 Circular Polarization................................... 57
3.1.4.3 Elliptical Polarization ................................. 57
3.2 Scattering Fundamentals ......................................................... 59
3.2.1 Scattering Amplitude, Scattering Matrix, and
Scattering Cross Sections ........................................... 59
3.3 Rayleigh Scattering..................................................................64
3.3.1 Original Statement .....................................................64
3.3.2 Scattering as Dipole Radiation ................................... 65
3.4 Mie Scattering Theory ............................................................ 69
3.4.1 Conceptual Description .............................................. 69
3.4.2 Mathematical Expression and Sample Results........... 69
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3.5 Scattering Calculations for a Nonspherical Particle................ 73

3.5.1 Basic Nonspherical Shape: Spheroid .......................... 74
3.5.2 Rayleigh Scattering Approximation for Spheroids .... 75
3.5.3 T-Matrix Method ........................................................ 77
3.5.4 Other Numerical Methods for Scattering
Calculations ................................................................ 82
3.6 Scattering for Arbitrary Orientations ...................................... 82
3.6.1 Scattering Formulation through Coordinate
Transformation ........................................................... 82
3.6.2 General Expression for Rayleigh Scattering ..............84
3.6.3 Backscattering Matrix for a Spheroid ........................ 85
3.6.4 Forward Scattering Alignment versus
Backscattering Alignment .......................................... 86
3.6.5 Scattering Matrix by a Spheroid with
Any Orientation .......................................................... 88
Appendix 3A: Derivation of Optical Theorem (Forward Scattering
Theorem) ....................................................................................... 89
Appendix 3B: Vector Spherical Wave Harmonics .............................. 91

Chapter 4 Scattering and Propagation in Clouds and Precipitation.................... 95

4.1 Scattering Models .................................................................... 95
4.2 Single Scattering Model ..........................................................97
4.2.1 Coherent Addition Approximation .............................97
4.2.2 Mean Wave Field ........................................................ 98
4.2.3 Wave Intensity and Independent Scattering ...............99
4.2.4 Time-Correlated Scattering...................................... 101
4.2.5 PDF of Scattered Wave Fields .................................. 102
4.2.5.1 Single-Polarization Wave Field ................ 102
4.2.5.2 Dual-Polarization Wave Fields ................. 105
4.2.6 Polarimetric Radar Variables ................................... 109
 Contents vii

4.3 Coherent Wave Propagation .................................................. 114

4.3.1 Concept of Effective Medium .................................. 114
4.3.2 Scalar Wave Propagation.......................................... 114
4.3.3 Polarized Wave Propagation .................................... 117
4.3.3.1 No Canting Angle ..................................... 117
4.3.3.2 Random Orientation with Zero Means ..... 118
4.3.3.3 General Formulation for Coherent
Wave Propagation ..................................... 119
4.4 Propagation-Included Scattering ........................................... 121
4.4.1 Transmission-Included Scattering Matrix ................ 122
4.4.2 Propagation-Included Radar Variables .................... 124
Appendix 4A: Monte Carlo Simulation ........................................... 128
Appendix 4B: Statistics of Random Orientation Angle Terms ....... 129
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Chapter 5 Radar Measurements and Improvement of Data Quality ................ 137

5.1 The Polarimetric Weather Radar System and Equation........ 137
5.1.1 Fundamentals and the Polarimetric
Radar Equation .....................................................137
5.1.2 Polarization Modes of Radar Operation .................. 140
5.2 Regular Estimation of Polarimetric Radar Variables ............ 141
5.2.1 Reflectivity Estimation ............................................. 143
5.2.2 Differential Reflectivity............................................ 144
5.2.3 Co-Polar Correlation Coefficient.............................. 145
5.2.4 Differential Phase ..................................................... 146
5.2.5 Radial Velocity and Spectrum Width ...................... 146
5.3 Multilag Correlation Estimators ............................................ 147
5.3.1 Concept of Multilag Correlation Estimation ............ 148
5.3.2 General Expressions ................................................. 149
5.3.3 Specific Estimators ................................................... 151
5.3.3.1 Two-Lag Estimator ................................... 151
5.3.3.2 Three-Lag Estimator ................................ 152
5.3.3.3 Four-Lag Estimator ................................... 154
5.3.4 Performance of the Estimators ................................. 154
5.4 Clutter Detection ................................................................... 157
5.4.1 Background of Clutter Detection ............................. 159
5.4.2 Definition and Property of Discriminants................ 159
5.4.2.1 Power Ratio Discriminant ........................ 159
5.4.2.2 Dual-Polarization Discriminants .............. 160
5.4.2.3 Dual-Scan Discriminant ........................... 163
5.4.2.4 Dual-Pol Dual-Scan Discriminants
(DPDS)...................................................... 164
5.4.3 Implementation and Evaluation of SBC Dual-Pol
Clutter Detection ...................................................... 166
 viii Contents

5.5 Clutter Mitigation .................................................................. 170

5.5.1 Bi-Gaussian Spectrum Model and Cost Functions .....170
5.5.2 Examples of BGMAP Fitting to Separate
Weather and Clutter Spectra .................................... 171
5.6 Spectrum-Time Estimation and Processing .......................... 172
Appendix 5A: Derivation of Cost Function for Optimal
Spectral Parameter Estimation............................................... 176
Appendix 5B: NEXRAD Radar Data Access................................... 177

Chapter 6 Applications in Weather Observation and Quantification................ 179

6.1 Observation of Polarimetric Radar Signatures...................... 179
6.1.1 Stratiform Precipitation ............................................ 179
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6.1.2 Mesoscale Convection .............................................. 181

6.1.3 Storm Complex......................................................... 181
6.1.4 Severe Storms ........................................................... 181
6.2 Hydrometeor Classification ................................................... 184
6.2.1 Classification Background ........................................ 185
6.2.2 Fuzzy Logic Approach ............................................. 187
6.2.3 Classification Results from PRD .............................. 189
6.3 Quantitative Precipitation Estimation ................................... 192
6.3.1 Radar Rain Estimators ............................................. 193
6.3.2 Polarimetric Radar Rain Estimators ........................ 194
6.3.3 Rain Estimation Results ........................................... 198
6.3.4 Estimation Errors and Practical Issues .................... 199
6.4 DSD Retrieval........................................................................200
6.4.1 Selection of Measurements and DSD Model ........... 201
6.4.2 Retrieval Procedure .................................................. 203
6.4.3 Application of DSD Retrieval in
Parameterization of Rain Microphysics ...................205
6.5 Attenuation Correction .......................................................... 211
6.5.1 Correction Methods.................................................. 212
6.5.1.1 DP Method ................................................ 212
6.5.1.2 Z-PHI Method........................................... 214
6.5.1.3 Self-Consistent with Constraint Method .....215
6.5.1.4 Dual-Frequency Method ........................... 216
6.5.2 Example Results ....................................................... 217
Appendix 6A: Rain Estimation Based on Bayes’ Theorem ............. 217
Appendix 6B: Equivalence among Constrained Gamma
DSD Models .......................................................................... 221

Chapter 7 Advanced Methods and Optimal Retrievals .................................... 225

7.1 Simultaneous Attenuation Correction and DSD Retrieval ...... 225
7.1.1 Analogy between Dual-Polarization and
Dual-Frequency Radar Techniques .......................... 225
 Contents ix

7.1.2 Formulation: Integral Equation Method .................. 226

7.1.3 Example of a Simultaneous Retrieval ...................... 228
7.2 Statistical Retrieval of Rain DSDs ........................................ 229
7.2.1 Statistical Retrieval Method: Bayesian Approach ..... 229
7.2.2 Prior Distribution of DSD Parameters ..................... 230
7.2.3 The Forward Conditional Distribution ..................... 230
7.2.4 Results and Evaluation ............................................. 232
7.3 Variational Retrieval.............................................................. 236
7.3.1 Formulation of Variational Retrieval ....................... 236
7.3.1.1 General Formulation ................................. 236
7.3.1.2 Formulation for DSD Retrieval
from PRD ............................................... 237
7.3.2 Forward Observation Operator and Iteration
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Procedure ................................................................. 238

7.3.3 Application to PRD ..................................................240
7.4 Optimal Retrieval through DA ..............................................244
7.4.1 General Challenges ..................................................244
7.4.2 Observation Operators and Errors ........................... 245
7.4.3 Model Microphysics Uncertainty .............................246
7.4.4 Expectation for Future PRD DA .............................. 250

Chapter 8 Phased Array Radar Polarimetry ..................................................... 253

8.1 Background and Challenges .................................................. 253
8.2 Formulation for Planar Polarimetric Phased Array Radar ...... 259
8.2.1 Dipole Radiation....................................................... 259
8.2.2 Backscattering Matrix .............................................. 262
8.2.3 Scattering Matrix Corrections.................................. 263
8.2.3.1 Alternate Transmission ............................. 263
8.2.3.2 Simultaneous Transmission ......................264
8.2.4 Correction to Polarimetric Variables .......................264
8.2.4.1 Reflectivity Factor..................................... 265
8.2.4.2 Differential Reflectivity ............................ 265
8.2.4.3 Correlation Coefficient ............................. 268
8.2.4.4 Linear Depolarization Ratio ..................... 269
8.3 Cylindrical Polarimetric Phased Array Radar ...................... 270
8.3.1 CPPAR Concept and Formulation............................ 271
8.3.2 Sample Calculation of CPPAR Patterns ................... 275
8.3.3 CPPAR Development ............................................... 277
Appendix 8A: PPAR Formulation for Aperture and
Patch Elements ...................................................................... 278
References ............................................................................................................. 283
Index ...................................................................................................................... 297
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 Foreword
Although weather radars have been in operation for more than half a century and
Doppler weather radars for a few decades, polarimetric weather radars, which retain
Doppler capability, have only recently achieved operational status. Nevertheless,
polarimetry offers more than an incremental improvement in the understanding of
cloud physics, in quantitative measurements of precipitation, and in the discrimina-
tion of scatterer types. In fact polarimetric weather radars are likely to have a broader
impact on improving the interpretation and quantitative measurement of weather
phenomena than that achieved with Doppler radars. Thus users of polarimetric radar
need to understand the basics of polarimetry so they can better interpret the data
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provided by this instrument. There are several texts describing the theory and appli-
cation of weather radars including Doppler radars, but relatively few that focus on
polarimetry. At the University of Oklahoma, Dr. Guifu Zhang created a popular
course containing the theory and application of polarimetry to interpret polarimetric
radar echoes from various types of precipitation as well as those from biological
scatterers. Weather Radar Polarimetry is rooted in this course, offered to students in
the School of Meteorology as well as those in the School of Electrical and Computer
Engineering. Thus this book has benefited from the interactions of Dr. Zhang with
students from two disciplines, as well as from his collaboration with researchers
at the National Center for Atmospheric Research and the National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration’s National Severe Storms Laboratory. In Weather
Radar Polarimetry Dr. Zhang takes a unique approach to teaching weather echo
processing, polarimetric theory, and the application of theory to the interpretation
of polarimetric weather radar observations. Homework assignments and examples
with real data offer hands-on experience and demystify this difficult subject. Those
who put the time into working out the details will be well prepared to enter this field
either as developers of polarimetric radars or interpreters of polarimetric data.

Richard J. Doviak
Dusan S. Zrnić
National Severe Storms Laboratory
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

xi
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 Preface
Radar has proven to be an indispensable tool for weather studies, as has been well
documented. Radar reflectivity and Doppler measurements have demonstrated their
value in weather observation, quantification, and forecasting. Now, we have another
set of measurements we can use to better study weather: polarimetric radar data
(PRD). After decades of research and development, weather radar polarimetry has
now matured to the point that the national NEXRAD (WSR-88D) network has been
upgraded with dual-polarization capability. Furthermore, other national weather
radar networks have radars capable of producing multiparameter PRD. My under-
standing of weather radar polarimetry is as follows:
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There is polarimetry in radar innovation,

which makes weather observations more accurate.
It brought excitement with hydrometeor classification,
and improvement in quantitative precipitation estimation.
Multiparameter measurements contain rich information,
leading to a deeper understanding of cloud physics.
It helps model initialization and parameterization,
with great potential for the future of weather prediction!

Although the technology of radar polarimetry has matured and PRD are avail-
able nationally and worldwide, radar polarimetry is still in its initial stages for
operational usage. There is a lot of room for research and development, especially
in using PRD for weather forecasts. It is important to know the principles of radar
polarimetry and of PRD estimation and improvement, as well as information con-
tent, and error characterization. There is a growing need for a textbook that meteo-
rology students, scholars, and scientists can use to obtain this knowledge. Based
on the weather radar polarimetry classes taught by the author at the University of
Oklahoma, this book was written to provide readers with the fundamentals and
tools to effectively and optimally use the available PRD. Please find supporting
data and tools for the homework exercises at http://weather.ou.edu/~guzhang/page/
book.html.

MATLAB® is a registered trademark of The MathWorks, Inc. For product informa-

tion, please contact:

The MathWorks, Inc.

3 Apple Hill Drive
Natick, MA 01760-2098 USA
Tel: 508 647 7000
Fax: 508-647-7001
E-mail: [email protected]
Web: www.mathworks.com

xiii
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 Acknowledgments
I express my appreciation to the pioneers in developing weather radar polarimetry,
to my colleagues who further my understanding, to my students who motivated
me to write this book, to my friends for their encouragement, and to my family
for their support. In particular, I wish to thank Drs. Richard J. Doviak, Dusan
S. Zrnić, Alexander Ryzhkov, Jidong Gao, and Terry Schuur at the National Severe
Storm Laboratory; Drs. J. Vivekanandan, Edward Brandes, and Juanzhen Sun at the
National Center for Atmospheric Research; Profs. Ming Xue, Howard B. Bluestein,
Yan (Rockee) Zhang, and Drs. Shaya Karimkashi and Boon Leng Cheong at the
University of Oklahoma (OU); and Prof. V. Bringi at Colorado State University.
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I thank the following graduate students (whom I advised or co-advised), who have
completed or are pursuing their PhD in radar polarimetry at OU: Youngsun Jung
(2008), Qing Cao (2009), Yinguang Li (2013), Lei Lei (2014), Petar Bukovcic, Vivek
Mahale, and Bryan Putnam. Some of their dissertation works are included in this
book. My friend Dr. Yasser Al-Rashid at Lockheed Martin Corporation connected
me with my publisher. My visiting student, Hao Huang from Nanjing University,
helped with the bibliography and figures.
Financial support from National Science Foundation grants and the National
Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration are greatly appreciated. I would also like
to express my appreciation for support from OU.

Guifu Zhang
University of Oklahoma

xv
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 About the Author
Guifu Zhang, PhD, is a professor in the School of Meteorology at the University of
Oklahoma, Norman, Oklahoma, where he has formulated theories on weather radar
interferometry and phased array radar polarimetry. Currently, he is working on topics
such as the optimal use of polarimetric radar data (PRD) in quantitative precipitation
estimation and quantitative precipitation forecast and the research and development of
polarimetric phased array radars for weather measurements and multimission capability.
Dr. Zhang earned his BS in physics from Anhui University, Hefei, China, in
1982, his MS in radio physics from Wuhan University, Wuhan, China, in 1985,
and his PhD in electrical engineering from the University of Washington, Seattle,
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Washington, in 1998. From 1985 to 1993, Dr. Zhang was an assistant professor and
associate professor in the Space Physics Department at Wuhan University. In 1989,
he worked as a visiting scholar with Dr. Tomohiro Oguchi at the Communication
Research Laboratory in Japan. From 1993 to 1998, Dr. Zhang studied and worked
with professors Leung Tsang, Yasuo Kuga, and Akira Ishimaru in the Department
of Electrical Engineering at the University of Washington, where he was first a vis-
iting scientist and later a PhD student. He was a scientist with the National Center
for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) between 1998 and 2005. In 2005, he joined the
School of Meteorology at the University of Oklahoma, where he is now a professor.
Dr. Zhang’s dissertation work focused on the modeling and calculation of wave
scattering from targets buried under rough surfaces, and he explored the detection of
targets in the presence of clutter using angular correlation functions. He also studied
wave scattering from fractal trees. At NCAR and the University of Oklahoma, he
developed algorithms for retrieving raindrop size distributions. He led the devel-
opment of the spectrum-time estimation and processing algorithm to improve the
quality of weather radar data and of the PRD simulators that link weather phys-
ics state variables to radar variables. His additional research interests span topics
that include wave propagation and scattering in random and complex media, remote
sensing theory and technology for geophysical applications, algorithms for retriev-
ing physical states and processes, cloud and precipitation microphysics and model
parameterization, target detection and classification, clutter identification and filter-
ing, radar signal processing, and optimal estimation.
Dr. Zhang has three US patents and filed more than 10 intellectual property dis-
closures for his research work. The formulations, methods, and theories in his pub-
lications (over 100 refereed papers) are in use across the US and worldwide. He is
an active member of the weather and radar communities, including the American
Meteorological Society and Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers. In
addition to his research and service at the University of Oklahoma, he has developed
teaching material for courses such as METR/ECE6613, Weather Radar Polarimetry;
METR3223, Physical Meteorology II: Cloud Physics, Atmospheric Electricity and
Optics; METR5233, Cloud and Precipitation Physics; and METR6803/ECE6973,
Wave Interactions with Geophysical Media. This textbook draws extensively upon
Dr. Zhang’s research and teaching experience.

xvii
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 1 Introduction

Radar is an efficient remote sensing system that measures targeted media with four-
dimensional information and fine resolution. It plays a critical role in weather obser-
vation, detection of hazards, classification and quantification of precipitation, and
forecasting. Polarimetric radar provides multiparameter measurements with unprec-
edented quality and information. In this introduction, the historical development of
the weather radar polarimetry is simply summarized, and the motivation and orga-
nization of the book are provided.

1.1 HISTORICAL DEVELOPMENT

The history of weather radar development and application is well documented in the
first 18 chapters of Radar in Meteorology, edited by Atlas (1990). Here, we briefly
summarize the early development and background information that will allow us to
progress to weather radar polarimetry.
Radar is an acronym for “radio detecting and ranging of objects,” a remote sens-
ing system that transmits and receives electromagnetic waves to detect and locate
targets. Although its history can be traced earlier to the use of radio waves to obtain
target information, it was during World War II that radar began to receive a great
deal of attention; its technology advanced rapidly in response to the need to detect
aircraft. According to Nobel laureate I. I. Rabi, it was radar, not the atomic bomb,
that contributed most to the Allies’ victory in the war.
Prior to the 1930s, the highest radio frequencies used were less than 400 MHz,
due to limitations in microwave power generation. The invention of the cavity mag-
netron made microwave frequency (10 cm and 3 cm wavelength) radars possible and
substantially improved detection accuracy and reliability. Once microwave radars
were in operation, the marriage between weather and radar occurred naturally.
It was immediately observed that rain echoes showed up on the radar displays as
clutter, and this clutter sometimes obscured aircraft. One of the early challenges was
to remove weather, ground, and sea clutter from radar displays. However, weather
measurement in addition to aircraft detection came to be of interest.
At that time, most radar systems were developed by the Radiation Laboratory
at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). Due to the urgent need for
knowledge of radar operation in weather conditions, the Weather Radar Research
Project was started in the Department of Meteorology at MIT in 1946. Two radars
(10 cm SCT-615 and 3 cm AN/TSP-10) were used to make cloud observations, and
their measurements were compared with the direct in situ measurements of hydro-
meteor particles by instrumented aircraft. A year later, the first radar meteorol-
ogy conference was held at MIT. D. Atlas was one of ninety attendees. Along with
L. Battan, Atlas attended the Harvard–MIT radar school. He then worked at AFCRL
(Air Force Cambridge Research Laboratories), where a premier group of scientists

1
 2 Weather Radar Polarimetry

and engineers conducted systematic weather radar research in the 1950s. He summa-
rized the early progress in his monograph, Advances in Radar Meteorology, in 1964.
L. J. Battan led the Thunderstorm Project at the University of Chicago and completed
his PhD work, titled “Observations on Formation of Precipitation in Convective
Clouds,” in 1953. Extending his PhD work, in 1959 he wrote Radar Meteorology, the
first textbook in the field, with a revision published in 1973. Battan realized that fro-
zen hydrometeors are not spherical, which can cause differences in wave scattering
for different polarizations. His book highlighted this fact, with polarization vectors
drawn on the cover page.
Downloaded by [University of Alabama, Tuscaloosa] at 18:05 15 September 2016

To address problems of air traffic in the presence of convective weather and to

provide timely detection and warning of severe storms, the US Weather Bureau
established a national network of 10-cm wavelength radars (WSR-57s). One of the
WSR-57s was installed in Norman, Oklahoma, to support research efforts to under-
stand thunderstorms and their effect on the safety of flight. When the National Severe
Storms Laboratory (NSSL) was officially formed in Norman in 1962, one of the
main objectives was to develop radar technology for severe storm observation. NSSL
developed the first 10-cm Doppler weather radar for research to support the National
Weather Service and later for polarimetric Doppler radar research. Doppler radar
technology was used in the WSR-88D national radar network, which was upgraded
with dual-polarization capability by 2013.
The early interaction between NSSL meteorologists and engineers and University
of Oklahoma (OU) professors (G. Walker of the EE department and Y. Sasaki of the
School of Meteorology) was instrumental in developing the OU–NSSL relationship,
which continues to this day. This interaction led to a course in radar meteorology and
the textbook Doppler Radar and Weather Observations by Doviak and Zrnić, first
published in 1984, with a second edition discussing polarimetry published in 1993.
(A paperback Dover edition is now available.) In 1990, an undergraduate textbook was
published, Radar for Meteorologists, by Rinehart (1990, 1991, 1997, 2004). While the
Doppler technique was a breakthrough for weather observations, radar polarimetry was
the next advancement: polarimetric radar data (PRD) with Doppler fields significantly
advanced the microphysical and dynamical quantification of clouds and precipitation.
Weather radar polarimetry is defined as the obtaining of weather information
through radar measurements with polarization diversity. The major and minor
lengths of hydrometeors of various shapes are typically horizontally and vertically
oriented, respectively; these different lengths yield differences in wave scattering for
different polarization. The polarization of electromagnetic waves is the orientation/
direction of the transverse electric field vibrations, which was first explained by
Young and Fresnel in the early 1800s. Although polarization had been documented
in the Maxwell equations in 1861, weather radar polarimetry did not receive serious
consideration until the 1970s. Many works represented and calculated wave polar-
ization and propagation, such as using the Poincaré sphere (Poincaré 1892) and the
Stokes parameters (Stokes 1852a, 1852b). The theoretical foundations for wave scat-
tering include the Rayleigh approximation (Rayleigh 1871), Mie theory (Mie 1908),
and Gans theory (Gans 1912). The book Light Scattering by Small Particles by
Van De Hulst (1957) thoroughly documented these theoretical foundations. Ryde
(1941) made the first calculation of hydrometeor scattering and used it to explain the
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"Arnold looked up sharply. What do you mean by that expression?"
he asked quickly. "Have you discovered anything?"

"Jasher produced a small note-book. I have set down one or two

things. At present I am collecting evidence. When I have sufficient I
will know how to move. But"--he closed the book--"if you would like
me to destroy these pages----"

"Why the devil should I, man?" demanded Calvert, frowning. "As the
cousin and the legatee of Mrs. Brand, I am doubly concerned in
learning the truth. I agree to what the professor suggests. You shall
search out this matter, and find out who killed the poor woman. I
will bear all the expense. And if you bring the guilty person to
justice, I will pay you five hundred pounds."

"Consider it done," said Jasher, nodding. "I'll engage to get at the

truth. Five hundred pounds is worth earning."

"Are you satisfied?" asked Calvert, turning to Bocaros.

The professor, strangely enough, seeing that his errand had not
been in vain, looked rather disappointed. "Yes," he replied
hesitatingly; "it is good of you. I am very pleased." He rose. "Now
we will go."

"No," said Arnold, touching him on the breast, sit down. "As I pay
the piper, I call the tune. Mr. Jasher has passed from your
employment into mine. I should like to know"--he turned to Jasher--
"what you have discovered so far."

"Nothing easier," said Jasher, again opening his little book. "I have
learned details from the papers, from observation, from Professor
Bocaros, and from Mr. Tracey."

"Tracey!" said Calvert, starting. "I remember. He was the American

whose car was stolen."
"You know him better than that, Mr. Calvert," burst in the professor.
"He is engaged to Miss Baldwin, the great friend of the young lady
whom you are to marry."

Arnold turned on the Greek sharply. "How do you know that?"

"I live in a house near Mrs. Baldwin. She is my landlady. I know

Tracey and Miss Baldwin. I have met Miss Mason, and----"

"And Miss Mason told you," interposed Arnold.

"No. Mr. Tracey, informed by Miss Baldwin, told me. And it struck me
as strange," added Bocaros, in rather a venomous tone, "that you
should be engaged to the girl in whose house Flora was murdered."

"It belongs to her brother-in-law," said Calvert coldly. "Do you mean
to hint, professor, that I know anything about this crime?"

"No," interposed Jasher, making a sign to Bocaros to hold his

tongue, "he doesn't mean anything of the sort. Merely a coincidence,
Mr. Calvert, such as will occur in real life."

"Of course." Bocaros nodded and spoke with less significance. "I
mean that it is merely a coincidence."

Calvert looked from one to the other suspiciously, but set a mask on
his face so that they should not guess what was passing in his mind.
"We may as well understand one another," he said coolly. "If you,
professor, or you, Mr. Jasher, are under the impression that I have
anything to do with this crime--and you may think so from the fact
that being notoriously hard up and notoriously anxious to marry Miss
Mason I wanted this money--you are quite mistaken. I am engaged
at the Frivolity Theatre from seven till close on midnight every night.
I can prove what the law calls an alibi, and if you will apply to the
stage manager of the theatre, you may convince yourself of the
fact."
"My dear sir," said Jasher deprecatingly, since Calvert was now his
employer, "no one suspects you."

"I thought from what Bocaros hinted----"

"No! no! I said it was merely a coincidence," said the professor

quickly. "The very fact that you are willing to employ Jasher, and
offer so large a reward, proclaims your innocence."

"I have no need to resort to such things," said Calvert angrily. "I only
learned that the dead woman was my cousin from the fact of the
White Room----"

"But how did that lead to your identification of Flora with the dead
woman?" asked Bocaros shrewdly.

Arnold seemed confused. "I saw in the paper that the White Room
had been remarked by a man called Webb, who had communicated
with the police. It was then found by Inspector Derrick that Mrs.
Brand had been missing. I fancied that she might be the unknown
woman. I was informed that this was the truth by Merry, who has
communicated with the police. I did not see the body or I would
have been able to identify it. But Derrick found a portrait of my
cousin, and says it is that of the dead woman."

This was rather a roundabout explanation, and Bocaros curled his

lip. In spite of his denial he seemed to suspect Arnold. But that
Jasher touched his arm he would have asked a question. As it was
he allowed the agent to speak. "You knew that your cousin had such
a room?" asked Jasher.

"Yes. Certainly I knew."

"Then you have sometimes visited her?"

"I have. My cousin and I were good friends. I did not see much of
her certainly, but I have been in her house."
"Did you know that Mr. Fane had a similar white room?"

"Yes. He told me it was his own idea. I said that some one else had
been beforehand. That I had a cousin who had such a room."

"Did you mention your cousin's name?"

"Not at the time. Flora said that the White Room was her own idea,
and Fane insisted that the idea was original, emanating from his
brain. I thought it was a coincidence."

"There appear to be a great many coincidences about this case in

connection with you," murmured Bocaros, but of this remark Calvert
for his own reasons took no notice.

"Seeing that your cousin was killed in the White Room in Ajax Villa,
Mr. Calvert," pursued Jasher, "did it not strike you that it would be
wise to draw the attention of the police to the other White Room?"

"Certainly not. Why should I have connected Flora with the dead
woman? I never knew she was missing until the man Webb of
Hampstead drew attention to her disappearance, and by that time
the White Room at Hampstead had become known to the police. In
fact, the room there, taken in connection with Mrs. Brand's
disappearance, made Webb write to the police. I don't see how you
can blame me."

"I do not," said the agent patiently. "I am only trying to get at the
truth."

"I don't know it."

"You know Miss Mason, and she is the sister-in-law of Fane----"

"What of that? Do you mean to hint that she----"

"No! no!" said Jasher hastily; "but it was stated at the inquest that
Fane alone had the latch-key, that it was never out of his possession,
that the man who made it--invented that particular latch-key I may
say--never made another. How then did Mrs. Brand enter the house,
and how did she know that the family were at the seaside?"

"I cannot tell you. Why do you ask me?"

"I thought Miss Mason--seeing that you are engaged to her--might

have spoken out."

Arnold's face grew red. "I forbid you to bring Miss Mason's name into
the matter," he cried imperiously; "she has nothing to do with this
affair. She was stopping with Mrs. Baldwin on that night, and never
went near Ajax Villa when her sister was absent. Fane and his wife
were at the seaside--so were the servants. How can you implicate
any of these people?"

"I don't say that I can," retorted Jasher. "I am simply groping in the
dark. But the fact remains that Mr. Fane alone had the latch-key. It
must have been out of his possession so that some one could take
an impression and have a duplicate made, or----"

"Well, or what?"

"I'll tell you," said Bocaros coming away from the window, "or Mr.
Fane must have been the young man who spoke to the officer and
who killed the woman--poor Flora."

"You forget," said Arnold coolly, "it was proved that the woman was
alive when the young man in question was talking to the policeman."

"On the contrary," said the professor smoothly, "it was proved that
the woman--poor Flora--was dead three hours when the woman was
singing and the young man luring the policeman away."
"How dare you say that the man lured the policeman away!" cried
Arnold furiously; "your ignorance of English law, professor, excuses
your loose talk. But you are accusing every one without any basis of
fact. What is your opinion, Jasher?"

"I haven't got one as yet," said Jasher, putting his book away and
rising; "so far I can't see light. But I will go away and search, and
then come back to tell you if I have discovered anything."

"In what direction will you search?" asked Calvert uneasily.

"I shall search in the direction of the latch-key. Fane alone had it, so
I want to learn Fane's doings on that night."

"He was at the seaside."

"So he says," said Jasher significantly.

"And so Mrs. Fane says," said Bocaros quickly. "Better look for the
young man with the pointed beard."

"The police have looked everywhere and he has not been found,"
said Arnold calmly, "and I don't think he will be found."

The professor was about to speak when Jasher pulled him to the
door. When there he spoke. "By the way, Mr. Calvert, did you ever
see Mr. Brand?" he asked.

"No. I never did."

"Did you ever see his portrait?"

"No"--but this time Calvert's denial was not so emphatic--"I didn't."

Jasher nodded. "That's all right," said he. "I'll come back in a few
days and tell you about the latch-key."
When the two withdrew, Calvert sat down in an armchair and buried
his face in his hands. His head was whirling, and his mind was much
troubled. So buried was he in his reflections that he did not hear the
door open. He was not conscious that any one was in the room till a
hand was laid on his shoulders. With a start he sprang to his feet.
He looked and saw Laura Mason.

CHAPTER XII

ARNOLD AND LAURA

The lovers looked at one another in terror. Calvert, surprised by

Laura's sudden entrance, had no time to compose his features. She,
seeing his face, and coming to him already filled with suspicions
against which she strove vainly to fight, reflected the paleness and
haggard looks which startled her. For the moment both masks had
dropped, and these human beings, devoured by terror, stared at one
another as though the fabled Gorgon had changed them into stone.
Arnold was the first to recover himself. He smoothed his face to a
smile, and held out his hands, which she took in a passive manner.
"I did not expect to see you here, dearest," he said, leading her to a
chair. "But how ill you look. Nothing is wrong, I hope."

Laura sat down still gazing at him, but did not reply. "How does my
sister's maid come to be in this house?" she asked abruptly.

"Your sister's maid?" he repeated, staring.

"Yes; Emily Doon. I saw her in the hall as the landlady let me in. As
soon as she caught sight of me she vanished down the stairs to the
basement. And those two men----"

"One question at a time, dear," said Arnold calmly. He had now quite
recovered his composure, and was prepared to deal with the
situation. "And I shall answer the last first. The men who left me are
a Mr. Jasher and Professor----"

"Bocaros," cried Laura, striking her gloved hands together. "I

thought I knew his face. I saw him once at Mrs. Baldwin's. He lives
in a cottage across the meadow, and sometimes comes to borrow
her paper. What a horrid face--what a detestable man!"

Arnold looked rather surprised at her vehemence. "I certainly do not

like the professor, and I met him to-day for the first time. It happens
oddly enough that we are connected."

"Connected?" echoed Laura. "Wait; I have some sort of idea. The

professor told Mr. Tracey that he was a cousin of this woman who
was killed at Ajax Villa----"

"Her mother was the aunt of Bocaros," explained Calvert.

"And you are a cousin of the dead woman?"

"She was Flora Calvert before she married Brand, the daughter of
my uncle. Bocaros and I are connected in a way by marriage. As to
Mrs. Fane's maid being here--we shall soon learn the reason," and
he touched the button of the electric bell.

Mrs. Varney, with her majestic air and false smile, answered so
rapidly that it would seem she had been watching, if such a stately
female would descend so low. She smiled ingratiatingly on Laura,
who, without waiting for Arnold to speak, put the question. "I saw
my sister's maid, Emily Doon, as I entered," she said; "what is she
doing here?"
"What eyes you have, miss, I declare," said Mrs. Varney in her deep
voice. "Yes, miss, it is Emily. She is my younger sister. I was a Miss
Doon before I became Mrs. Varney. Your sister kindly gave Emily
permission to spend a happy day with me, and this afternoon we are
going to a matinée--Hamlet," said the landlady in her most serious
voice, "the whole of it--lasting five hours."

Having thus stated her case, Mrs. Varney waited in the attitude of a
startled fawn for a reply. Laura apologised. "I beg your pardon for
asking," she said colouring; "it is, of course, none of my business,
but I was naturally surprised at seeing Emily here."

"Ah," Mrs. Varney cast a look at Arnold, "we know all, miss. Emily
has told me. Juliet's garden--and the Forest of Arden----"

"We are engaged, Mrs. Varney," said Arnold, enraged by the

impertinence of the landlady.

With her false smile she turned to the door. "Certainly, sir, but as
Miss Mason is in the Forest of Arden I would like her to know that
Emily is likewise there. That was why she was in the hall. She has an
eye to Professor Bocaros," burst out Mrs. Varney with pride; "he
admiring her greatly, and living in the vicinity of Ajax Villa. Good-day,
miss, and----" the landlady looked as though she would have liked to
add, "Bless you!" but an imperious glance from Arnold sent her
rapidly out of the room. Stately as Mrs. Varney was, she loved to be
bullied as all women in their hearts do. Arnold's imperious manner
only made her admire him the more. Had he been a bully in
addition, she would doubtless have adored him.

"I don't like it, Arnold," said Laura, starting to her feet when the
door closed. "Professor Bocaros, in spite of his looks and poverty, is
a gentleman. Why should he take notice of Emily, who is merely a
servant? And she is here--oh, what does it mean?"

Arnold, amazed by this outburst, looked at her in surprise. "My dear,

what does it matter?" he said, pressing her to resume her seat. "I
don't care if Bocaros marries a laundress. He has nothing to do with
me."

"He is a dangerous man, and you are in his way."

"Am I? What do you mean?"

"Can't you understand, Arnold? He told Mr. Tracey that his cousin
and yours, Mrs. Brand, intended to leave him the money. I learned
from Mrs. Baldwin, who heard it from the professor himself, that you
have got the ten thousand a year. The professor is poor--from what
Mrs. Baldwin told me he is wretchedly poor. Do you think such a
man will tamely submit to the loss of a fortune? No, Arnold, no. He
is dangerous. Take care. If Emily Doon has an eye to marrying the
professor, she is not in this house for nothing."

Calvert tried to soothe the excited girl. "My dear, you are unduly
suspicious. Mrs. Varney has given us the reason for the maid's being
here. Bocaros cannot harm me in any way----"

"Are you so sure?" asked Laura sharply.

"What do you mean?" he asked.

"I mean that you will not be open with me. I love you. Have I not
proved how I love you. Julia is against our marriage: but in spite of
what she says I have remained true to you. Yet you will not trust
me?"

"With what? I am quite in the dark."

He may have been. Yet there was a deep colour in his cheeks, and
he looked uneasy. Laura saw these symptoms of emotion, and
placed her hands on his shoulders. "Arnold," she said earnestly, "if
you have any love for me you will speak out. Look at this!" she
hastily drew from her pocket the stage dagger. "This is yours?"
"It is," he admitted readily, and with a look of great surprise. "If you
remember it was bought by me for the second act of this play. I
showed it to you and----"

"You did. You showed it to me before the murder!"

Arnold looked at her in silence. "Perhaps you will permit me to

explain," he said coldly, "as I really do not understand what you
mean by such a speech. I lost that dagger----"

"You threw it into the dustbin after killing that poor woman!"

"Laura!" Calvert rose to his feet pale and trembling. From being a
calm and resolute man he suddenly seemed to change into a
coward. With white lips and a drooping figure, he stood in the
middle of the room. "You will never say anything more cruel than
that to me," he said in a low voice, and covered his face.

Laura looked with sudden joy overspreading her face. "You are
innocent," she cried, running to throw her arms round his neck. "I
knew it. I was certain. Dearest, I never believed--never. I said what I
did say only to try you. But I know now that you did not kill this
woman. I feel it in my heart. You forgive me--you forgive me--come,
kiss me, Arnold--kiss me and make friends."

In a lifeless manner he kissed her, and then submitted to be taken to

his former seat. "Now that we understand one another," said Laura,
sitting down and keeping his hand imprisoned within her own, "we
must have a long talk. You are innocent----"

"How can you be sure of that?"

"Because I am," she replied determinedly. "No, Arnold. Even if you

swore that you were guilty I would not believe it. I tried you by
making what you truthfully call a cruel speech, and your reply,
although it may sound nothing to other people, brought conviction
into my heart. But if I trust you, other people don't. This dagger!"
"Where was it found?" asked Calvert, examining it, but still pale.

"In the dustbin. The cook found it. She brought it to Julia, who
pretended that it was one she had worn at a fancy ball. Then Julia
hinted at your guilt, from the fact that you must have worn such a
dagger in the second act of the play. I denied that this was so, and
came to see you. Arnold, you must be plain with me. For some time,
since the murder in fact, you must have seen how I have avoided
you--how I have kept out of your way."

"Yes," he said with bitterness, "I saw that. When I called at the
house on that day a week or so ago, you avoided me. You have
hardly replied to my letters save in the coldest way. You suspect me-
---"

"No," answered Laura quickly; "I do not, though I have cause to."

Arnold looked at her keenly. "What do you mean?" he asked quietly.

"Surely you remember the appointment you made with me?"

"What appointment?" he said, still eyeing her, and the colour again
ebbing from his face.

"For the night of the 24th July at half-past nine--on the very night
that poor creature was killed."

"Laura!" his voice was firmer now, and his looks expressed
amazement; "it was you who made the appointment. You sent me---
-"

"Wait, Arnold. One thing at a time. There is something terrible and

mysterious about this. I suspect pitfalls and snares likely to bring us
into danger. I say, and I can prove it, that you made the
appointment. I have your letter in my pocket asking me to meet you
at half-past nine on that night. I would have destroyed it so as to
put away all evidence of your having been at Ajax Villa on that night,
but I kept it, as I wished to show it to you, and to ask how you
came to gain possession of Walter's latch-key!"

"You sent it to me!" he said, much astonished. "I have your letter
also. The key was lost."

"You dropped it in the road when you spoke to the policeman?"

Arnold nodded. "But how did you guess that I was the man who left
the house--the man for whom the police are searching?"

"Mulligan described your dress and said you had a pointed beard.
You have such a suit and such a beard in the last act of the play. I
knew then that you came later than I expected to keep the
appointment, and in your hurry you had left the theatre without
waiting to change your clothes or take off the false beard."

"In that case," said Arnold, very pale, "you must think me guilty of
Flora's death, seeing that I left the house when----"

"No," interrupted Laura quickly; "you did not come, at half-past nine,
for I was at the gate waiting for you. I rang the bell, since you said
you would admit me in your letter. As you came finally in your stage
clothes, you must have been unable to get away earlier from the
theatre. Therefore, as Flora was murdered before nine o'clock you
must be innocent. But I never thought you guilty," she added
tenderly, wreathing her arms round his neck, and whatever any one
said I would never believe you killed the woman. You are not the
man to commit a brutal murder. "Yet Arnold," her arms dropped and
she looked anxious, "the evidence is strong. This dagger is yours,
you left the house, the police are looking for you and----"

"All that goes for nothing, seeing I was not at the house before nine
o'clock."

"You were not?" she exclaimed joyfully.

"No! Listen, Laura, and I will tell you the whole truth and you will
see why I kept silent. Like yourself--seeing that you deny writing the
letter----"

"Show it to me. We must have a clear ground before we can go

further. Here is the letter I received. Look at it while I see if Mrs.
Varney is lurking outside. I don't trust that woman, and now that I
know my sister's maid, who loves Professor Bocaros, is here, I trust
her less than ever. O Arnold, how I wish I had come to see you
before!"

"It would have been better. Why did you not?"

"I was afraid. Arnold, how could I come to you and declare that the
man I loved was guilty? I did not believe it--no--but I knew that you
had the key--that you had been in the house on that night!"

"I can explain that," said Calvert quickly; "see if all is safe and return
to your seat."

While Laura peered outside the door, he opened a cash-box and took
therefrom a letter. This he laid open on the desk beside the letter
given to him by Laura. When she returned, having ascertained that
the coast was clear, he pointed to this last. "I never wrote that," he
said firmly; "it is a forgery."

"And the letter you received is one also," said Laura, staring at the
document; "and oh, what a clumsy one! See--I do not separate my
words like that. I often forget to dot my 'i's' and cross my 't's.' The
signature is excellent--exactly like mine, but the rest of the letter is
very bad--not at all a good imitation."

"But you will observe," said Arnold, pointing again, "that you end
'yours in haste.' I thought the hurried writing was thereby accounted
for. Although I never suspected but that the letter was yours, I
certainly thought that the calligraphy was different to your usual
neat handwriting."
"I always write neatly," she replied, "and this letter is one I should
have been ashamed to send out. But I use this colour and texture of
paper," she sniffed it, "and the same kind of scent. I wonder how the
person who forged this came to get my stationery. But, Arnold, your
letter is written from the theatre--here is the printed name both on
the envelope and inside sheet. How could I doubt but that the letter,
was yours. It came to me by post at Mrs. Baldwin's."

"And yours containing the latch-key came on the afternoon of the

24th July. It was delivered by messenger to Mrs. Varney, who
brought it to me."

"What do you mean by containing the latch-key?"

"Let us examine the letter first. Then you will see!"

The letter to Arnold at his lodgings, written on perfumed, lavender-

tinted paper, contained a few hurried lines asking him to meet Laura
at Ajax Villa on the night of the 24th July at half-past nine. "I may be
a little late," the letter continued, "so I send you the latch-key, which
I got from Walter who is at the seaside. You can let yourself in." The
letter ended with an admonition not to fail to keep the appointment,
and was signed with what appeared unmistakably to be Laura
Mason's signature.

"I never wrote a line of it," said Laura, very pale; "and I never sent
the latch-key. Walter was at the seaside certainly, but he would not
have given me the key out of fear of Julia. I stopped with the
Baldwins and never went to the villa while Julia was away."

"The letter to Laura at Mrs. Baldwin's, written on paper belonging to

the Frivolity Theatre, likewise contained a few hurried lines saying
that the writer would be with her as asked, at half-past nine on the
night of the 24th of July, that he would obey instructions if he was
early and admit her into the house if she rang the bell. It also stated
that his understudy would play his part in The Third Man so that the
appointment could be kept.
"I never wrote a line of that," said Arnold when Laura had finished
reading the letter. "When did you get it?"

"On the afternoon of the 24th. I was astonished, as I knew I had not
written you a letter about the villa, and I wondered how you would
be able to let me in."

"Now observe, Laura," said Calvert, sitting down, "both these letters
are delivered to you and I so late that there is no chance of our
meeting for an explanation save at Ajax Villa. It seems to me like a
trap--whether for you or for me I cannot say--perhaps for us both."

"Did you really come to the villa?" asked Laura, knitting her brows.

"I did. You were right in your guess about my being the man who
spoke to Mulligan. When I received your letter I asked the manager
to let my understudy take the part. He made some objection, but
finally he gave permission for the change. Then I came home,
intending to keep the appointment at half-past nine, and wondering
what you wished to say, seeing that we had met three days
previously, and then you had given no hint of your possession of the
latch-key."

"I wondered in exactly the same way," exclaimed the girl. "I said to
Mrs. Baldwin on Saturday night--the night you know--that I would go
out for a stroll, the evening being hot. Gerty was at the theatre with
Mr. Tracey. I then went to the villa at half-past nine or a little later. I
did not see you, and but few people were about. I slipped into the
garden so as not to be seen waiting in the road. I was afraid lest any
of Julia's friends should see me. I then rang the bell somewhere
near a quarter to ten, thinking you had arrived and were within. I
rang and rang but no one appeared, so I fancied you had not been
able to get away from the theatre, and returned to Mrs. Baldwin. I
said I had been strolling in the Nightingales' Walk."

"Did you see a light in the room where the crime was committed?"
"No! Had I done so I should have waited. But the villa was quite in
darkness," said the girl decisively. "You did not come?"

"I did later. There was a chapter of accidents. I came home rather
tired and lay down to sleep after dinner. When I awoke it was nine
o'clock. How I came to oversleep myself I can't say. I usually waken
when I wish. Then a message came from the theatre just as I was
getting ready to come--although I knew I would be late for the
appointment. My understudy was taken ill, so I had to go back and
finish the play. Afterwards, so eager was I to see if you were
waiting, that I left the theatre without changing my clothes. I took a
fast cab and reached Achilles Avenue about twenty or fifteen
minutes to eleven."

"Did you drive up to the door?" asked Laura.

"No; I thought, for your sake, it was best to keep my visit quiet. I
left the cab in Circe Street, and walked to the villa. No one was
about. I went into the garden, but did not see you. I then walked
into the house, letting myself in by the front door. I knew that you
must have gone away, but I opened the door, just to see if you had
left a note. Also I saw a light on the second story and fancied you
must have got in and were perhaps waiting for me. These things are
rather contradictory," added Arnold, passing his hand across his
face, "but the mystery of your letter and the appointment rather
worried me. However, I went in, and up to the White Room. There I
saw a woman lying, dead face upwards on the mat before the piano.
I saw that she was my cousin and was horrified. I turned the body
over, and found the wound. She had been murdered. I was horrified.
At first I intended to give the alarm. Then I thought that I might be
accused of the crime----"

"But you had no motive," said Laura, "unless you knew that the
money would come to you in the event of her death."
"I did not know that," said Arnold quickly; "no one was more
astonished than I when I heard of the will. But at the time I was
overcome by the horror of the deed. I had not my wits about me. I
wondered how Flora came there. Then, my being her cousin and
having the latch-key. O Laura, can you not guess that I lost my
head! waited to see how I could escape. I went down the stairs, and
then opened the door. Mulligan was leaning over the gate. I went
and spoke to him, and escaped in the way the papers stated. I lost
the latch-key and so I was connected with the matter. Thanks to my
stage dress and make-up, no one thought I was the man mentioned
in the papers. I did not come forward at the inquest. Now that the
money has come to me, I dare not come forward. Here is the motive
for the commission of the crime,"--Arnold walked up and down the
room feverishly---"no one will believe me guiltless. Laura, don't ask
me any more. The peril of my position overwhelms me."

"Darling." Laura rose to embrace him. "I believe in your innocence.

We will find out who killed the woman. Do you suspect any one?"

"No," said Arnold after a pause, and with an effort; "how can I
suspect any one? I know very little of my cousin. But now that I
have the money, I intend to learn the truth. Laura, Professor Bocaros
seems to suspect me. I can't say why he should. He cannot possibly
know I was at the villa on that night. He brought Jasher to me, and
to avert all suspicion, I engaged Jasher to hunt for the assassin."

"O Arnold, have you laid that bloodhound on your own track?"

"Yes; it seems foolish, but it is wise. Even if Jasher does learn that I
was at the villa, he will say nothing if I pay him well. He is a venal
creature, as I gathered this morning. He may find the real criminal,
and take this horror out of my life. If he does not, he will never hurt
me if I pay. It is the professor I fear."

"We must keep the professor quiet, Arnold. Let Mr. Jasher hunt. He
may learn the truth, and that is better than this suspense. But what
of the dagger I brought you?"

"It is mine. But after showing it to you I went to see my cousin. I

left it there, I fancy, and it must have been Flora who took it to Ajax
Villa--Heaven knows why! Laura, what is to be done?"

"Wait! wait!" she said, with her arms round him. "You are innocent,
and your innocence will be proved. You employ Jasher. I shall ask Mr.
Tracey to help me."

CHAPTER XIII

ON THE TRACK

Mr. Jasher was a man who in his time had played many parts on the
stage of the world. He loved money, and the ease and comfort which
a judicious expenditure of money would procure. But he was not
sufficiently successful in making an income. Several ventures had
turned out badly before he opened his private inquiry-office, and
hitherto that had not seemed likely to be a triumph. The work was
hard and the pay not very good, and for some months Mr. Jasher
had been contemplating the wisdom of giving up the business and
starting as a theatrical manager. He was fond of the stage, and in
the United States he had produced several dramas at a dead loss.
But the English people being less clever than the Yankees, Jasher
thought he would again venture on a theatrical agency.

It was about this time that Professor Bocaros called to see him. A
chance of making a great deal of money out of the simple scholar
presented itself to Jasher, and he took up the matter himself. It was
so difficult that the detective--for so he was in fact--did not think it
wise to trust the elucidation of the mystery to meaner hands. He
resolved to attend to it personally, and charge accordingly. The
discovery that the money had passed to Calvert was not pleasing to
Jasher, as he had now to deal with a man more shrewd and less
inclined to pay largely. However, supported by Bocaros, Jasher called
at the Bloomsbury lodgings of the actor, and ended, as has been
seen, in getting the business of hunting down the assassin of Flora
Brand. It was not an easy mystery to unravel.

"But the first thing to be done," said Mr. Jasher to himself in the
solitude of his office, "is to find out what sort of a cove Calvert is. If
he's what I call a stinger, I'll have to go straight. If he ain't, I'll
buckle to and do my best. But in any way I'll get all the money I can
out of him."

In pursuance of this amiable resolve, Jasher sought out several

theatrical folk whom he knew well. The report of Calvert was that he
had a strong will, but was very good-natured. It was considered that
he would never be an actor, and old-fashioned stagers believed that
it was merely through his good looks and his fashionable clothes he
obtained engagements. But Jasher knew the jealousy of those
connected with the green-room, and determined to see Calvert act
with his own eyes. According to the force and talent displayed by the
young man, he might be able to estimate the depth of his character.

Having thus made up his mind, Jasher treated himself to a seat in

the pit of the Frivolity Theatre. The audience was small as the play
was not a great success. "It's a good thing he's got this fortune,"
was the agent's reflection, "as this piece won't run long; and being
out of an engagement, he wouldn't have much chance of marrying
that girl he's sweet on, according to old Bocaros."

The play was not a good one; the best scene being in the middle
act, wherein a masked ball took place. Calvert was dressed as a
Venetian, and looked remarkably handsome in black velvet and gold.
During the scene he had to draw his dagger, and this drew Jasher's
attention to the fact that he wore such a weapon. But he did not
give the matter much thought. It was only when Arnold came on in
the last act in a tweed suit with a reddish pointed beard that he
started. It occurred to him that he had heard from a friend in the
police of how the young man met by Mulligan had been thus attired.
A description of the young man, save in a vague way, had not been
put into the papers. And probably Jasher, but that his mind was full
of the murder, would not have noticed the dress and general
appearance. As it was, the remembrance of the dagger and the fact
of the tweed suit and pointed beard made him reflect. Also the fact
that Arnold was engaged to the sister-in-law of the man to whom
the villa belonged made him lay unusual stress on the matter.

"Blest if I don't think he's got something to do with the matter,

professor," he said to Bocaros that same evening.

The Greek, anxious to know how matters were proceeding, had

made an appointment with Jasher at a Soho restaurant after the
theatre, and was now at the supper-table looking more haggard and
lean than ever with his blazing eyes and funereal looks. Disappointed
at being deprived of Mrs. Brand's fortune, Bocaros--as Laura
surmised rightly--was angry with Arnold for having obtained it. The
remarks he had made in the young man's presence were mere fault-
finding words, as he had no reason, on the face of it, to suspect him
of being connected with the crime. Moreover, Arnold's ready
acceptance of Jasher as an agent to search out the matter must
have done away with all idea that he was guilty. No man would be
such a fool as to put a bloodhound of the law on his own track, and
when he had succeeded in gaining his end without danger. But when
Jasher made the above remark Bocaros looked at him eagerly.

"That is my idea," he declared quickly. "I have no grounds to go

upon. But Calvert is engaged to Miss Mason. In her brother-in-law's
house Flora was killed, so he must know something."
"Oh, I don't see that," mused Jasher; "you go too fast, professor. Of
course those facts, and the fact that he gets a large income, may
seem suspicious, but being engaged at the theatre every night puts
his guilt out of the question. But to learn all I can about Calvert, I
have asked his understudy to come to supper." Jasher glanced at his
watch. "He'll be here soon, and then we can talk."

"From your description," said Bocaros, who stuck to his point,

"Calvert is the young man who spoke to Mulligan."

"I think that. He has the clothes and the beard described by the
officer. But if he was the man, he would hardly be such a fool as to
retain such a make-up."

"Yes, he would," persisted Bocaros; "safety often lies in danger. If

Calvert had changed his make-up and a description had appeared in
the papers, suspicion would have been excited."

"True; but no description appeared, or only a vague one."

"Calvert did not know that. He thought it best to keep to his make-
up, trusting that people--who are generally stupid--would never
connect his stage appearance with that of the man in real life. He is
the man, I am sure, and he came out of the house."

"But it doesn't say he killed Mrs. Brand."

"He had ten thousand a year to gain by doing so."

"Quite right. But the woman was killed before nine, and during that
hour Calvert was engaged at the theatre."

"That's true enough," said the professor gloomily, "all the same it
seems queer. I believe he is guilty."

"Hush!" said Jasher, looking round uneasily; "don't talk so loud. You
never know who may hear. Keep to generalities. Ah, here is Hart."
"The young man who came to the supper-table was a languid and
fashionable youth, who, having run through his money, had gone on
the stage to delight the public. As yet he had not made a success,
and, judging from his looks, never would. Having got into trouble
over some gambling debt, he had enlisted the services of Jasher.
That astute gentleman had managed to settle the affair, and Hart
was consequently willing to be friendly. He sat down with a bored
air, and declared that he was almost dead. He acknowledged his
introduction to Bocaros with a slight and supercilious nod.

"You work too hard," said Jasher, when Mr. Hart was engaged in
eating.

"It's hard work hanging round the theatre waiting for a chance," said
the other.

"You have got one," said the detective; "ain't you engaged at the
Frivolity Theatre?"

"Only as Calvert's understudy," said the discontented youth. "I have

to be at the theatre waiting for my chance should he fall ill. He's too
clever to let me go on, and he can't act a bit. I could make a
magnificent part of the one he spoils." And Hart began to explain the
lines upon which he would--as he put it--create the part.

"Have you never had an opportunity of playing?" asked the

professor, piling up little bits of bread in a listless manner.

"I had once," said Hart frankly, "but just my bad luck. I messed up
the chance."

"Ah," said Jasher quickly, "how was that?"

"Well, don't you say anything," said Hart, glancing round, "as it
would do me harm with the profession. Nobody will take much
notice so long as it ain't talked about. It's only known in the theatre,
and Calvert, who is a good-natured sort of chap, promised to hold
his tongue."

"Oh," said Bocaros, meaningly, and looking up with eagerness, "he

promised to hold his tongue, did he? About what?"

"My messing up my chance. You see Calvert didn't feel well one
night, and I went on. I did act A1, and was scoring all round, when I
got so excited that I fell ill. My heart ain't very strong," added the
youth, "and that's why I can't take Turkish baths."

"Well, well," said Jasher, looking a very benevolent stout gentleman,

and sipping his wine with relish, "what happened when you fell ill?"

"Why, they had to send for Calvert. Luckily he was at his lodgings."

"Also ill?" put in the professor.

"No. He said he was ill, but he wasn't. He came and took my place
for the last act, and they said he never acted better in his life."

"About what time does the third act commence?"

"About ten."

"And Calvert came to the theatre at that time?"

"A few minutes before," said Hart, attacking some cheese.

"So he was disengaged on that evening up to that time. Ill at

home?"

"He was away from the theatre, if that is what you mean," said the
young man, "but he wasn't ill, so far as I know, in spite of what he
said. It was a fake of some sort. I guess there was a girl in it."

"What do you mean?" asked Bocaros excitedly.

Hart started. "Why, nothing. Only some of our chaps were ragging
him about getting away that evening to meet a girl."

"Did he deny that he was going to do so?"

"No. He laughed and coloured. A shy chap is Calvert."

Bocaros intervened. "Can you tell me what night this was?"

"What do you want to know for?" asked Hart suspiciously.

"It's merely curiosity," said Jasher smoothly; "you needn't trouble

about the matter, if you don't like."

"I don't care two straws," said Hart, with a good-natured laugh, "but
I can't understand what you fellows are driving at. Catch me
forgetting the night I got my chance. It was the 24th of July."

"Jasher and Bocaros looked significantly at one another, but the

interchange was lost on Hart, who was attending to his wine. The
conversation then drifted into subjects connected with Mr. Hart's
career, and he finally departed quite unaware that he had been
made use of.

"What do you think now?" asked Bocaros triumphantly.

"Well, Calvert was absent on that night, and he resembles the young
man who lured Mulligan away. Also he wears a dagger in the second
act of the play which he might have used."

"He did use it," said the professor positively; "the wound was made
by a stiletto, according to the medical evidence. It is a stiletto he
wears. And he was absent between six and half-past nine, the very
time the doctor said the woman was killed. Besides," went on
Bocaros excitedly, "Calvert knows Fane very well. He might have
thus obtained possession of the key."
"Fane swore it was never out of his possession.

"He may have done that to shield Calvert, seeing the man is going to
marry Miss Mason."

"True enough," said Jasher, rising. "Well, Calvert himself has given
me the funds to prosecute the search. It will be queer if I run him
down. I guess he'll be willing to let sleeping dogs lie if I do run him
to earth."

"No," said the professor determinedly; "if Calvert is guilty he must be

punished."

"You leave matters in my hands," retorted Jasher, his good-natured

face growing black. "I'm going to make money out of this."

Bocaros changed the subject, for no apparent reason. "How did you
get money to prosecute your inquiries?"

"Calvert told his solicitors to give me what I wanted. I saw Merry,

and obtained a cheque for fifty. That's enough to go on with."

"What do you intend to do now?"

"Go to his lodgings and see what his landlady knows."

Bocaros thought. "There's another thing you might do," said he. "I
know that Emily Doon is the sister of Calvert's landlady. You might
question her. She will be with her sister to-morrow, and, as you
know, she is Mrs. Fane's maid."

Jasher looked keenly at the professor. "That's the girl you are sweet
on," he said smiling.

"What if I am?" returned Bocaros sharply; "she is a nice, good girl,

and handsome. She adores me," cried Bocaros, on whose head the
unaccustomed champagne had taken effect, "and I will marry her
when I am rich."

"Will you ever be rich?"

"If Calvert is the man who killed Flora Brand, yes," said Bocaros, and
with a grim smile he departed. Jasher looked after him and
shrugged his shoulders.

"I must keep you in order," said he to himself, "or you will spoil the
whole thing."

But however little the detective may have trusted Bocaros, he made
use of the information he had received. At three o'clock the next day
he went to ask if Calvert was at home. But he did not make the
inquiry until he saw Calvert drive away in a cab. Mrs. Varney
appeared with her ingratiating smile, and assured him that the
young man was out. "He has gone to Troy," said Mrs. Varney, "but of
course we know what that means. A handsome young lady, Mr.
Jasher."

"Hullo!" said the detective, starting; "and how do you come to know
my name, ma'am?"

"Oh,"--Mrs. Varney tossed her head in a light-comedy way--"my

sister knows the professor, and the professor knows you. The fact is-
---"

"Oh, that's all right. The professor (and a nice gentleman he is,
though but a foreigner) told me of his weakness."

"Weakness, indeed!" This time Mrs. Varney frowned as a tragedy-

queen. "Professor Bocaros ought to be proud of having a handsome
young lady like my sister admiring him."

"Well," said Jasher, who wished to get an interview with Miss Doon,
and guessed the right way to go about the matter, "he is a man who
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