Unit 2:

PROBABILITY
1. Sample Space and Relationship among Events
2. Counting Rules Useful in Probability
3. Rules of Probability

COLLEGE OF ENGINEERING Department of Electronics Engineering

INTRODUCTION
• Probability is the measure of
the likelihood that an event will
occur. It ranges from 0
(impossibility) to 1 (certainty).
• Probability has its origin in the
study of gambling and
insurance in the 17th century,
and it is now an indispensable
tool of both social and natural
sciences.
INTRODUCTION
• In data analysis, probability helps in
making predictions and
understanding the likelihood of
various outcomes based on given
data.
• Engineers often work with large
datasets. Probability provides tools
for statistical analysis, hypothesis
testing, and inference, helping
engineers extract meaningful
insights from the data.
TOPIC 1:
SAMPLE SPACE AND RELATIONSHIP OF EVENTS

Experiment (Random)

• A random experiment is a mechanism that produces a definite

outcome (observation or measurement) that cannot be predicted
with certainty.

Element or Member

• Each outcome in a sample space is called an element or a

member of the sample space, or simply a sample point.
TOPIC 1:
SAMPLE SPACE AND RELATIONSHIP OF EVENTS
Sample Space (S)
• The sample space associated with a random experiment is the set of all possible
outcomes.

Discrete Sample Space

• A sample space is discrete if it consists of a finite or countable infinite set of
outcomes.
• S = {low, medium, high}

Continuous Sample Space

• A sample space is continuous if it contains an interval (either finite or infinite) of
real numbers.
• S = {x|10 < x < 11}
TOPIC 1:
SAMPLE SPACE AND RELATIONSHIP OF EVENTS
Event
• An event is any collection of results or outcomes of an experiment, a subset of
sample space. It is set of basic outcomes.

Mutually Exclusive Event

• Mutually exclusive events are those events that do not occur at the same time.
• Two mutually exclusive events that do not have elements in common.

Independent and Dependent Events

• The occurrence of any event that is completely unaffected by the occurrence of
any other event is known as an independent event.
• The events which are affected by other events are known as dependent events.
Mutually Exclusive Events
• Two events are mutually exclusive if, when one event occurs, the
other cannot, and vice versa.
•Experiment: Toss a die Not Mutually Exclusive

–A: observe an odd number

–B: observe a number greater than 2
–C: observe a 6 Mutually Exclusive B and C?
B and D?
–D: observe a 3
TOPIC 1:
SAMPLE SPACE AND RELATIONSHIP OF EVENTS

Union of Events
• Union of events: The union of events A and B, denoted by A ∪ B , consists of all
outcomes that are in A or in B or in both A and B.

Intersection of Events
• The intersection of events A and B, denoted by A ∩ B , consists of all outcomes
that are in both A and B.

Complement of Events
• The complement of an event A (denoted by A’ or 𝐴)ҧ is the set containing all the
elements in the universal set that are not members of A.
Exercise:
If S = {0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9} and
A = {0, 2, 4, 6, 8} B = {1, 3, 5, 7, 9}
C = {2, 3, 4, 5}, and D = {1, 6, 7},
list the elements of the sets corresponding to the following events:
a. A ∪ C =
b. A ∩ B =
ത=
c. C
ത ∩ D) ∪ B =
d. (C
e. (S ∩ C) =
f. A ∩ C ∩ D ഥ=
Exercise:

If S = {x | 0 < x < 12},

M = {x | 1 < x < 9}, and
N = {x | 0 < x < 5}, find
a. M∪N=
b. M∩N=
c. ഥ ∩N
M ഥ=
TOPIC 2:
COUNTING RULES USEFUL IN PROBABILITY

• There are times when the sample space is very large and is not
feasible to write out.
• In that case, it helps to have mathematical tools for counting the
size of the sample space.
• These tools are known as counting techniques or counting rules.
TOPIC 2:
COUNTING RULES USEFUL IN PROBABILITY
• The Fundamental Counting Principle (often called the
Multiplication Rule) is a way of finding how many possibilities can
exist when combining choices, objects, or results.
• This is done by multiplying each total choice count from each
group being combined.

Multiplication Rule: 𝒏𝟏 × 𝒏𝟐 × ⋯ × 𝒏𝒌
TOPIC 2:
COUNTING RULES USEFUL IN PROBABILITY

Multiplication Rule: 𝒏𝟏 × 𝒏𝟐 × ⋯ × 𝒏𝒌

Examples:
In the design of a casing for a gear housing, we can use four different
types of fasteners, three different bolt lengths, and three different bolt
locations. How many different designs are possible?
TOPIC 2:
COUNTING RULES USEFUL IN PROBABILITY
Multiplication Rule: 𝒏𝟏 × 𝒏𝟐 ×
⋯ × 𝒏𝒌
Example 2:
Sam is going to assemble a computer by himself. He has the choice of
chips from two brands, a hard drive from four, memory from three,
and an accessory bundle from five local stores. How many different
ways can Sam order the parts?
TOPIC 2:
COUNTING RULES USEFUL IN PROBABILITY

Factorial Rule
• The number of different ways to arrange n objects where repetitions
are not allowed is n!
• A factorial is used to find how many ways objects can be arranged
in order. In a factorial, all of the objects are used and none of
the objects can be used more than once.

Factorial Rule: 𝒏!
TOPIC 2:
COUNTING RULES USEFUL IN PROBABILITY

Permutation
• A permutation is an arrangement of all or part of a set of objects
with a specified order.
• The arrangements are different/distinct.
The number of permutations of n distinct objects taken r at a time

Permutations of Subsets:
𝒏!
𝒏𝑷𝒓 = 𝒏−𝒓 !
TOPIC 2:
COUNTING RULES USEFUL IN PROBABILITY

Permutations of Subsets:
𝒏!
𝑷
𝒏 𝒓 =
𝒏−𝒓 !

Example:
A printed circuit board has eight different locations in which a
component can be placed. If four different components are to be
placed on the board, how many different designs are possible?
TOPIC 2:
COUNTING RULES USEFUL IN PROBABILITY

Permutations of Similar Objects:

𝒏!
𝒏𝟏 !𝒏𝟐 !…𝒏𝒌 !

Example 1:
A part is labeled by printing with four thick lines, three medium lines,
and two thin lines. If each ordering of the nine lines represents a
different label, how many different labels can be generated by using
this scheme?
TOPIC 2:
COUNTING RULES USEFUL IN PROBABILITY

Permutations of Similar Objects:

𝒏!
𝒏𝟏 !𝒏𝟐 !…𝒏𝒌 !

A permutation of a set of objects is an ordering of those objects. When

some of those objects are identical, the situation is transformed into a
problem about permutations with repetition, also known as
distinguishable permutation (refers to the permutations of a set of
objects were some of them are like alike).
TOPIC 2:
COUNTING RULES USEFUL IN PROBABILITY

Permutations of Similar Objects:

𝒏!
𝒏𝟏 !𝒏𝟐 !…𝒏𝒌 !

Example 2:
Consider a machining operation in which a piece of sheet metal needs
two identical-diameter holes drilled and two identical-size notches cut.
We denote a drilling operation as d and a notching operation as n.
TOPIC 2:
COUNTING RULES USEFUL IN PROBABILITY

Circular permutation is the total number of ways in which n distinct

objects can be arranged around a fixed circle.
In the circular permutation, there is nothing like a start or an end.
Circular Permutations:
(𝒏 − 𝟏)!

Example:
In how many ways can 5 persons arrange themselves around a round
table?
TOPIC 2:
COUNTING RULES USEFUL IN PROBABILITY
Combination
• Arranging or partitioning a set of n objects into r cells/subsets and the
order of the elements within a cell is of no important
Combinations:
𝒏 𝒏!
n 𝑪𝒓 = 𝒓
=
𝒓! 𝒏−𝒓 !
NOTE.
(1) We must have a total of n different items available.
(2) We must select r of the n items (without replacement).
(3) We must consider rearrangements of the same items to be the same. (The
combination ABC is the same as CBA.)
TOPIC 2:
COUNTING RULES USEFUL IN PROBABILITY

Example 1:
A printed circuit board has eight different locations in which a component
can be placed. If five identical components are to be placed on the board,
how many different designs are possible?
Example 2:
A bin of 50 manufactured parts contains three defective parts and 47 non-
defective parts. A sample of six parts is selected from the 50 parts without
replacement. That is, each part can only be selected once and the sample is a
subset of the 50 parts. How many different samples are there of size six that
contain exactly two defective parts?
TOPIC 2:
COUNTING RULES USEFUL IN PROBABILITY

Example 3:
A young boy asks his mother to get 5 GameBoy cartridges
from his collection of 10 arcade and 5 sports games. How
many ways are there that his mother can get 3 arcade and 2
sports games?
TOPIC 2:
COUNTING RULES USEFUL IN PROBABILITY

Permutation versus Combination

When different orderings of the same items are to be counted
separately, we have a permutation problem; but when
different orderings are not to be counted separately, we have a
combination problem.
TOPIC 2:
COUNTING RULES USEFUL IN PROBABILITY

Permutation versus Combination

1. In horse racing, a trifecta is a type of bet. To win a trifecta bet, you
need to specify the horses that finish in the top three spots in the
exact order in which they finish. If eight horses enter the race, how
many different ways can they finish in the top three spots?
2. There are 18 faculty members in the department of Mathematics
and Statistics. Four people are to be in the executive committee.
Determine how many different ways this committee can be created.
TOPIC 2:
COUNTING RULES USEFUL IN PROBABILITY

Permutation versus Combination

3. The director of a research laboratory needs to fill a number of research
positions; two in biology and three in physics. There are seven applicants
for the biology positions and 9 for the physicist positions. How many
ways are there for the director to select these people?
4. In a local election, there are seven people running for three positions.
The person that has the most votes will be elected to the highest paying
position. The person with the second most votes will be elected to the
second highest paying position, and likewise for the third place winner.
How many different outcomes can this election have?
TOPIC 2:
COUNTING RULES USEFUL IN PROBABILITY

Rules Formula
Multiplication Rule 𝒏𝟏 × 𝒏𝟐 × ⋯ × 𝒏𝒌
Factorial Rule 𝒏!
𝒏!
Permutations of Subsets 𝒏 𝑷𝒓 =
𝒏−𝒓 !
𝒏!
Permutations of Similar Objects 𝒏𝟏 ! 𝒏𝟐 !… 𝒏𝒌 !
Circular Permutations (𝒏 − 𝟏)!
𝒏!
Combinations n𝑪𝒓 =
𝒓! 𝒏 − 𝒓 !
WRAP-UP ACTIVITY
Consider the design of a communication system.
1. How many three-digit phone prefixes that are used to represent
a particular geographic area (such as an area code) can be
created from the digits 0 through 9?
2. As in part (1), how many three-digit phone prefixes are possible
that do not start with 0 or 1, but contain 0 or 1 as the middle
digit?
3. How many three-digit phone prefixes are possible in which no
digit appears more than once in each prefix?
WRAP-UP ACTIVITY

A witness to a hit-and-run accident told the police that the

license number contained the letters RLH followed by 3
digits, the first of which was a 5. If the witness cannot recall
the last 2 digits, but is certain that all 3 digits are different, find
the maximum number of automobile registrations that the
police may have to check.
WRAP-UP ACTIVITY

A manufacturing operation consists of 10 operations.

However, five machining operations must be
completed before any of the remaining five assembly
operations can begin. Within each set of five,
operations can be completed in any order. How many
different production sequences are possible?
WRAP-UP ACTIVITY

An order for a computer can specify any one of five

memory sizes, any one of three types of displays, and
any one of four sizes of a hard disk, and can either
include or not include a pen tablet. How many
different systems can be ordered?
WRAP-UP ACTIVITY

A computer system uses passwords that are exactly

seven characters and each character is one of the 26
letters (a–z) or 10 integers (0–9). Uppercase letters are
not used. If a password consists of five distinct letters
followed by two distinct numbers, how many
passwords are possible?
WRAP-UP ACTIVITY
Magnesium alkyls are used as homogenous catalysts in the production
of linear low-density polyethylene (LLDPE), which requires a finer
magnesium powder to sustain a reaction. Redox reaction experiments
using four different amounts of magnesium powder are performed.
Each result may or may not be further reduced in a second step using
three different magnesium powder amounts. Each of these results may
or may not be further reduced in a third step using three different
amounts of magnesium powder. How many experiments are possible?
WRAP-UP ACTIVITY
Samples of a cast aluminum part are classified on the basis of surface finish (in
microinches) and edge finish. Let A denote the event that a sample has excellent
surface finish, and let B denote the event that a sample has excellent edge finish.
Determine the number of samples in 𝐴ҧ ∩ 𝐵.
The results of 100 parts are summarized as follows:
Surface Edge Finish
Finish Excellent Good
Excellent 80 2
Good 10 8
WRAP-UP ACTIVITY
In the design of an electromechanical product, 12 components are to
be stacked into a cylindrical casing in a manner that minimizes the
impact of shocks. One end of the casing is designated as the bottom
and the other end is the top. If three components are of one type and
identical to one another, and four components are of another type and
identical to one another, but the others are different, how many
different designs are possible?
WRAP-UP ACTIVITY

In the layout of a printed circuit board for an electronic

product, there are 12 different locations that can
accommodate chips. If the five chips that are placed on
the board are of the same type, how many different
layouts are possible?
WRAP-UP ACTIVITY
In the laboratory analysis of samples from a chemical process, five
samples from the process are analyzed daily. In addition, a control
sample is analyzed two times each day to check the calibration of the
laboratory instruments. How many different sequences of process and
control samples are possible if we consider the five process samples to
be different and the two control samples to be identical?
WRAP-UP ACTIVITY

A local delivery company has three packages to deliver

to three different homes. If the packages are delivered
at random to the three houses, how many ways are
there for at least one house to get the wrong package?
WRAP-UP ACTIVITY
A student is required to answer 6 out of 10 questions divided
into two groups each containing 5 questions. He is not
permitted to attempt more than 4 from each group. In how
many ways can he make the choice?
WRAP-UP ACTIVITY

Ten points are marked on a straight line and

eleven points are marked on another straight line.
How many triangles can be constructed with vertices
from among the above points?
TOPIC 3:
RULES OF PROBABILITY

Probability is a mathematical concept that is used to measure the

certainty and uncertainty of occurrence of statistical phenomena. These
phenomena are events which may be classified as follows:
• The same event is repeated a certain number of times, the event being brought
back to the same initial state before repetition.
• The same event which changes with time is observed a certain number of
consecutive times.
• Several distinct events which, in the problem at hand, may be considered of the
same kind are observed simultaneously.
TOPIC 3:
RULES OF PROBABILITY
𝟏
Equally Likely Outcomes:
𝑵

Equally Likely Outcomes means that each outcome of

an experiment occurs with equal probability.
Because every outcome is equally likely, and the probability of the
sample space must be 1, we can prove that each outcome must have
probability: P ( an outcome ) = 1 /N where N is the size of the sample
space, or, put in other words, the total number of outcomes of the
experiment.
TOPIC 3:
RULES OF PROBABILITY
𝟏
Equally Likely Outcomes:
𝑵

Example:
Assume that 30% of the laser diodes in a batch of 100 meet the
minimum power requirements of a specific customer. If a laser diode is
selected randomly, that is, each laser diode is equally likely to be
selected, our intuitive feeling is that the probability of meeting the
customer’s requirements is 0.30.
TOPIC 3:
RULES OF PROBABILITY
Probability of an Event:
𝒏 𝒆𝒗𝒆𝒏𝒕
𝑷 𝑨 = =
𝑵 𝒆𝒙𝒑𝒆𝒓𝒊𝒎𝒆𝒏𝒕

The probability of a particular event A occurring from an experiment is

obtained from the number of ways that A can occur (n) divided by the
total number of possible outcomes (N).
TOPIC 3:
RULES OF PROBABILITY
Probability of an Event:
𝒏 𝒆𝒗𝒆𝒏𝒕
𝑷 𝑨 = =
𝑵 𝒆𝒙𝒑𝒆𝒓𝒊𝒎𝒆𝒏𝒕

Examples:
• Three bolts and three nuts are put in a box. If two parts are chosen
at random, find the probability that one is a bolt and one is a nut.
• A shipment of 50 calculators contains three that are defective.
When an inspector chooses 3 calculators, what is the probability
that
TOPIC 3:
RULES OF PROBABILITY

Axioms of Probability
• The first axiom states that a probability is nonnegative.
𝟎 ≤ 𝑷(𝑬) ≤ 𝟏
• The second axiom states that the probability of the sample space is equal to 1.
𝑷(𝑺) = 𝟏
• The third axiom states that for every collection of mutually exclusive events,
the probability of their union is the sum of the individual probabilities.
If 𝑬𝟏 ∩ 𝑬𝟐 = ∅, then 𝑷(𝑬𝟏 ∪ 𝑬𝟐 ) = 𝑷(𝑬𝟏 ) + 𝑷(𝑬𝟐 )
NOTE:
An axiom is a starting point in mathematics.
More precisely, an axiom is a statement which we have assumed to be true.
TOPIC 3:
RULES OF PROBABILITY

Probability of Complementary Events

ഥ ) = 1 − P (A )
P (𝑨

Two events are said to be complementary when one event occurs if

and only if the other does not. The probabilities of two
complementary events add up to 1.
The probability of the complement of an event is one minus the
probability of the event.
TOPIC 3:
RULES OF PROBABILITY

Probability of Complementary Events

ഥ ) = 1 − P (A )
P (𝑨

If the probabilities that an automobile mechanic will service 3, 4, 5, 6,

7, or 8 or more cars on any given workday are, respectively, 0.12, 0.19,
0.28, 0.24, 0.10, and 0.07, what is the probability that he will service at
least 5 cars on his next day at work?
TOPIC 3:
RULES OF PROBABILITY

Conditional Probability
𝑷 𝑨∩𝑩
𝑷 𝑩𝑨 = 𝒑𝒓𝒐𝒗𝒊𝒅𝒆𝒅 𝒕𝒉𝒂𝒕 𝑷 𝑨 > 𝟎
𝑷 𝑨

Conditional Probability is a measure of the probability of an event occurring, given

that another event (by assumption, presumption, assertion or evidence) is already
known to have occurred.
This particular method relies on event A occurring with some sort of relationship
with another event B.
It involves two or more events that are not independent, and asks, "If we know
A has happened, what's the chance of B also happening?"
TOPIC 3:
RULES OF PROBABILITY

Conditional Probability
𝑷 𝑨∩𝑩
𝑷 𝑩𝑨 = 𝒑𝒓𝒐𝒗𝒊𝒅𝒆𝒅 𝒕𝒉𝒂𝒕 𝑷 𝑨 > 𝟎
𝑷 𝑨

A day’s production of 850 manufactured parts contains 50 parts that do

not meet customer requirements. Two parts are selected randomly
without replacement from the batch. What is the probability that the
second part is defective given that the first part is defective?
TOPIC 3:
RULES OF PROBABILITY
Conditional Probability
𝑷 𝑨∩𝑩
𝑷 𝑩𝑨 = 𝒑𝒓𝒐𝒗𝒊𝒅𝒆𝒅 𝒕𝒉𝒂𝒕 𝑷 𝑨 > 𝟎
𝑷 𝑨

To calculate the probability of the intersection of more than two events,

the conditional probabilities of all of the preceding events must be
considered. In the case of three events, A, B, and C, the probability of
the intersection P(A and B and C) = P(A)P(B|A)P(C|A and B).
TOPIC 3:
RULES OF PROBABILITY
Conditional Probability
𝑷 𝑨∩𝑩
𝑷 𝑩𝑨 = 𝒑𝒓𝒐𝒗𝒊𝒅𝒆𝒅 𝒕𝒉𝒂𝒕 𝑷 𝑨 > 𝟎
𝑷 𝑨

Continuing the previous example, if three parts are selected at random,

what is the probability that the first two are defective and the third is not
defective?
TOPIC 3:
RULES OF PROBABILITY

Product or Multiplicative Rule

P(A ∩ B) = P(A)P(B|A), provided P(A) > 0

General Multiplication Rule.

Use the general multiplication rule to calculate joint probabilities for
either independent or dependent events.
When you have dependent events, you must use the general
multiplication rule because it allows you to factor in how the occurrence
of event A affects the likelihood of event B.
TOPIC 3:
RULES OF PROBABILITY

Product or Multiplicative Rule

P(A ∩ B) = P(A)P(B|A), provided P(A) > 0

The probability that the first stage of a numerically controlled machining

operation for high-rpm pistons meets specifications is 0.90. Failures are
due to metal variations, fixture alignment, cutting blade condition,
vibration, and ambient environmental conditions. Given that the first
stage meets specifications, the probability that a second stage of
machining meets specifications is 0.95. What is the probability that both
stages meet specifications?
TOPIC 3:
RULES OF PROBABILITY
Probability of Independent Events
P(A ∩ B) = P(A) ∗ P(B)

Events A and B are independent if: knowing whether A occurred does

not change the probability of B.
Mathematically, can say in two equivalent ways:
P(B|A) = P(B) P(A and B) is equal to P(B ∩ A) = P(B) × P(A).
TOPIC 3:
RULES OF PROBABILITY
Probability of Independent Events
P(A ∩ B) = P(A) ∗ P(B)

Suppose a day’s production of 850 manufactured parts contains 50 parts

that do not meet customer requirements. Suppose two parts are selected
from the batch, but the first part is replaced before the second part is
selected. What is the probability that the second part is defective
(denoted as B) given that the first part is defective (denoted as A)?
TOPIC 3:
RULES OF PROBABILITY
Probability of Multiple Independent Events
P(A1 ∩ A2 ∩ ·· · ∩ Ak) = P(A1)P(A2) · · · P(Ak)

Assume that the probability that a wafer contains a large particle of

contamination is 0.01 and that the wafers are independent; that is, the
probability that a wafer contains a large particle is not dependent on the
characteristics of any of the other wafers. If 15 wafers are analyzed, what
is the probability that no large particles are found?
TOPIC 3:
RULES OF PROBABILITY
Probability of Multiple Independent Events
P(A1 ∩ A2 ∩ ·· · ∩ Ak) = P(A1)P(A2) · · · P(Ak)

The following circuit operates only if

there is a path of functional devices
from left to right. The probability that
each device functions is shown on the
graph. Assume that devices fail
independently. What is the probability
that the circuit operates?
TOPIC 3:
RULES OF PROBABILITY
Theorem of Total Probability or the Rule of Elimination
𝑷 𝑨 = σ𝒌𝒊=𝟏 𝑷 𝑩𝒊 ∩ 𝑨 = σ𝒌𝒊=𝟏 𝑷 𝑩𝒊 𝑷 𝑨 𝑩𝒊

In cases where the probability of occurrence of one event depends on

the occurrence of other events, we use the law of total probability
theorem.
Theorem applies only to mutually exclusive (i.e., no common element
in two sets) and exhaustive events (i.e., the union of all subsets is a
sample space).
TOPIC 3:
RULES OF PROBABILITY
Theorem of Total Probability or the Rule of Elimination
𝑷 𝑨 = σ𝒌𝒊=𝟏 𝑷 𝑩𝒊 ∩ 𝑨 = σ𝒌𝒊=𝟏 𝑷 𝑩𝒊 𝑷 𝑨 𝑩𝒊

Heart failures are due to either natural occurrences (87%) or outside

factors (13%). Outside factors are related to induced substances (73%)
or foreign objects (27%). Natural occurrences are caused by arterial
blockage (56%), disease (27%), and infection (e.g., staph infection)
(17%). Determine the probability that a failure is due to induced
substance, P(I).
TOPIC 3:
RULES OF PROBABILITY
Bayes’ Theorem
𝐏 𝐁 𝐄𝟏 𝐏 𝐄 𝟏
𝐏 𝐄𝟏 𝐁 =
𝐏 𝐁 𝐄𝟏 𝐏 𝐄𝟏 +𝐏 𝐁 𝐄𝟐 𝐏 𝐄𝟐 +⋯+𝐏 𝐁 𝐄𝐤 𝐏 𝐄𝐤

Bayes' Theorem is a mathematical formula for determining conditional

probability which provides a way to revise existing predictions or
theories (update probabilities) given new or additional evidence.
If you need to determine the probability of something occurring given
that another condition exists that can influence the occurrence, you
would use Bayes' theorem.
TOPIC 3:
RULES OF PROBABILITY
Bayes’ Theorem
𝐏 𝐁 𝐄𝟏 𝐏 𝐄 𝟏
𝐏 𝐄𝟏 𝐁 =
𝐏 𝐁 𝐄𝟏 𝐏 𝐄𝟏 +𝐏 𝐁 𝐄𝟐 𝐏 𝐄𝟐 +⋯+𝐏 𝐁 𝐄𝐤 𝐏 𝐄𝐤

Because a new medical procedure has been shown to be effective in the early
detection of an illness, a medical screening of the population is proposed. The
probability that the test correctly identifies someone with the illness as positive is
0.99, and the probability that the test correctly identifies someone without the illness
as negative is 0.95. The incidence of the illness in the general population is 0.0001.
You take the test, and the result is positive. What is the probability that you have the
illness?
TOPIC 3:
RULES OF PROBABILITY
Bayes’ Theorem
𝐏 𝐁 𝐄𝟏 𝐏 𝐄 𝟏
𝐏 𝐄𝟏 𝐁 =
𝐏 𝐁 𝐄𝟏 𝐏 𝐄𝟏 +𝐏 𝐁 𝐄𝟐 𝐏 𝐄𝟐 +⋯+𝐏 𝐁 𝐄𝐤 𝐏 𝐄𝐤

Bayesian networks are used on the Web sites of high-technology manufacturers to allow
customers to quickly diagnose problems with products. An oversimplified example is
presented here. A printer manufacturer obtained the following probabilities from a database
of test results. Printer failures are associated with three types of problems: hardware,
software, and other (such as connectors), with probabilities 0.1, 0.6, and 0.3, respectively.
The probability of a printer failure given a hardware problem is 0.9, given a software
problem is 0.2, and given any other type of problem is 0.5. If a customer enters the
manufacturer’s Web site to diagnose a printer failure, what is the most likely cause of the
problem?
 TOPIC 3:
RULES OF PROBABILITY

• Equally Likely Outcomes: 𝑁

1

• 𝑛 𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡
Probability of an Event: 𝑃 𝐴 = 𝑁 = 𝑒𝑥𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑖𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡
• Probability of Complementary Events: P(𝐴)ҧ = 1 − P(A)
• Probability of Mutually Exclusive Events: P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B)
• Conditional Probability: 𝑃 𝐵 𝐴 =
𝑃 𝐴∩𝐵
𝑃 𝐴
𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑣𝑖𝑑𝑒𝑑 𝑡ℎ𝑎𝑡 𝑃 𝐴 > 0
• Probability of Independent Events: P(A1 ∩ A2 ∩ ·· · ∩ Ak) = P(A1)P(A2) · · · P(Ak)
• Theorem of Total Probability or the Rule of Elimination: 𝑃 𝐴 = σ𝑘𝑖=1 𝑃 𝐵𝑖 ∩ 𝐴 = σ𝑘𝑖=1 𝑃 𝐵𝑖 𝑃 𝐴 𝐵𝑖
𝑃 𝐵 𝐸1 𝑃 𝐸1
• Bayes’ Theorem: 𝑃 𝐸1 𝐵 = 𝑃 𝐵 𝐸 𝑃 𝐸 +𝑃 𝐵 𝐸 𝑃 𝐸 +⋯+𝑃 𝐵 𝐸 𝑃 𝐸
1 1 2 2 𝑘 𝑘
WRAP-UP ACTIVITY
Strands of copper wire from a manufacturer are analyzed for strength
and conductivity. The results from 100 strands are as follows:
Strength
Conductivity High Low
High 74 8
Low 15 3
If a strand is randomly selected, what is the probability that its
conductivity is high and its strength is high?
WRAP-UP ACTIVITY
A lot contains 15 castings from a local supplier and 25 castings from a
supplier in the next state. Suppose three castings are selected at
random, without replacement, from the lot of 40.
Let A be the event that the first casting selected is from the local
supplier, B the event that the second casting is selected from the local
supplier, and C denote the event that the third casting selected is from
the local supplier.
Determine (P(A∩B∩ 𝐶). ҧ
WRAP-UP ACTIVITY
Plastic parts produced by an injection-molding operation are checked
for conformance to specifications. Each tool contains 12 cavities in
which parts are produced, and these parts fall into a conveyor when the
press opens. An inspector chooses three parts from among the 12 at
random. Two cavities are affected by a temperature malfunction that
results in parts that do not conform to specifications. What is the
probability that the inspector finds exactly one nonconforming part?
WRAP-UP ACTIVITY
A researcher receives 100 containers of oxygen. Of those
containers, 20 have oxygen that is not ionized, and the rest are
ionized. Two samples are randomly selected, without
replacement, from the lot. What is the probability that the
second one selected is not ionized given that the first one was
ionized?
WRAP-UP ACTIVITY
An optical storage device uses an error recovery procedure that
requires an immediate satisfactory readback of any written data. If the
readback is not successful after three writing operations, that sector of
the disk is eliminated as unacceptable for data storage. On an
acceptable portion of the disk, the probability of a satisfactory readback
is 0.98. Assume the readbacks are independent. What is the probability
that an acceptable portion of the disk is eliminated as unacceptable for
data storage?
WRAP-UP ACTIVITY
The probability that a customer’s order is not shipped on time is 0.05.
A particular customer places three orders, and the orders are placed far
enough apart in time that they can be considered to be independent
events. What is the probability that two or more orders are not shipped
on time?
WRAP-UP ACTIVITY
The probability that an automobile being filled with gasoline also needs
an oil change is 0.25; the probability that it needs a new oil filter is 0.40;
and the probability that both the oil and the filter need changing is
0.14. What is the probability that a new oil filter is needed, given that
the oil has to be changed?
WRAP-UP ACTIVITY
Samples of laboratory glass are in small, light packaging or heavy, large
packaging. Suppose that 2% and 1% of the sample shipped in small
and large packages, respectively, break during transit. If 60% of the
samples are shipped in large packages and 40% are shipped in small
packages, what proportion of samples break during shipment?
WRAP-UP ACTIVITY
Incoming calls to a customer service center are classified as complaints (75% of
calls) or requests for information (25% of calls). Of the complaints, 40% deal with
computer equipment that does not respond and 57% deal with incomplete
software installation; in the remaining 3% of complaints the user has improperly
followed the installation instructions. The requests for information are evenly
divided on technical questions (50%) and requests to purchase more products
(50%). What is the probability that an incoming call to the customer service center
will be from a customer who has not followed installation instructions properly?
Math 50: Engineering Data Analysis
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