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Stochastic Models in
Reliability Engineering
Advanced Research in Reliability and System
Assurance Engineering
Series Editor: Mangey Ram, Professor, Graphic Era University,
Uttarakhand, India
Reliability Engineering
Theory and Applications
Edited by Ilia Vonta and Mangey Ram
Reliability Engineering
Methods and Applications
Edited by Mangey Ram
Edited by
Lirong Cui, Ilia Frenkel, and Anatoly Lisnianski
First edition published 2021
by CRC Press
6000 Broken Sound Parkway NW, Suite 300, Boca Raton, FL 33487-2742
Reasonable efforts have been made to publish reliable data and information, but the author and publisher can-
not assume responsibility for the validity of all materials or the consequences of their use. The authors and
publishers have attempted to trace the copyright holders of all material reproduced in this publication and
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Typeset in Times
by Deanta Global Publishing Services, Chennai, India
MATLAB® is a trademark of The MathWorks, Inc. and is used with permission. The MathWorks
does not warrant the accuracy of the text or exercises in this book. This book’s use or discussion
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MathWorks of a particular pedagogical approach or particular use of the MATLAB® software.
Contents
Preface.......................................................................................................................ix
Editors.......................................................................................................................xi
Contributors ........................................................................................................... xiii
v
vi Contents
Chapter 15 Analysis of Node Resilience Measures for Network Systems ......... 213
Chao Zhang, Xin Xu, and Hongyan Dui
Lirong Cui
(Beijing Institute of Technology, China)
Ilia Frenkel
(Shamoon College of Engineering, Israel)
Anatoly Lisnianski
(The Israel Electric Corporation, Israel)
ix
x Preface
Ilia Frenkel is a researcher in the Center for Reliability and Risk Management,
SCE–Shamoon College of Engineering, Beer Sheva, Israel. He obtained his MSc
degree in Applied Mathematics from Voronezh State University, Russia, and PhD
degree in Operational Research and Computer Science from Institute of Economy,
Ukrainian Academy of Science, formerly the USSR. He has more than 40 years
of academic experience and teaching in universities and institutions in Russia and
Israel. From 1988 to 1991 he worked as department chair and associate professor in
the applied mathematics department and at computers department, Volgograd Civil
Engineering Institute, Russia. From 2001 he served as senior lecturer in the indus-
trial engineering and management department and from 2005 as Chair of the Center
for Reliability and Risk Management, SCE–Shamoon College of Engineering, Beer
Sheva, Israel. He retired in 2018. He has specialized in applied statistics and reliabil-
ity with application to preventive maintenance. He published two books and more
than 50 scientifc articles and book chapters in the felds of reliability, applied sta-
tistics, and production and operation management. He is an editor and member of
several editorial boards of scientifc and professional journals.
xi
Contributors
Suk Joo Bae Lirong Cui
Department of Industrial School of Management and Economics
Engineering Beijing Institute of Technology
Hanyang University Beijing, China
Seoul, South Korea
K.S. Deepthi
Guangchen Bai Department of Statistics
School of Energy and Power University of Calicut
Engineering Kerala, India
Beijing University of Aeronautics and
Astronautics Yi Ding
Beijing, China College of Electrical Engineering
Zhejiang University
Vlad Stefan Barbu Hangzhou, China
Laboratoire de Mathématiques Raphaël
Salem Wenjie Dong
Université de Rouen College of Economics and Management
Saint-Étienne-du-Rouvray, France Nanjing University of Aeronautics and
Astronautics
Igor Bolvashenkov Nanjing, China
Institute of Energy Conversion
Technology Hongyan Dui
Technical University of Munich School of Management Engineering
Munich, Germany Zhengzhou University
Zhengzhou, China
Zhiqiang Cai
School of Mechanical Engineering Yu Fan
Northwestern Polytechnical School of Management and Economics
University Beijing Institute of Technology
Xi’an, China Beijing, China
xiii
xiv Contributors
Yan-Fu Li Chenyang Ma
Department of Industrial Engineering School of Mechanical Engineering
Tsinghua University Northwestern Polytechnical University
Beijing, China Xi’an, China
Xiaohu Zheng
College of Aerospace Engineering
National University of Defense
Technology
Changsha, China
1 Reliability Analysis of a
Pseudo Working Markov
Repairable System
Bei Wu and Lirong Cui
CONTENTS
1.1 Introduction ...................................................................................................... 1
1.2 Basic Assumptions............................................................................................3
1.3 Reliability Indexes ............................................................................................6
1.3.1 Case of Constant τ ................................................................................ 6
1.3.1.1 Time to First Failure ..............................................................6
1.3.1.2 Point-Wise and Interval Availabilities ...................................7
1.3.2 Case of Random τ............................................................................... 11
1.4 Numerical Examples and Special Cases ........................................................ 13
1.5 Conclusions..................................................................................................... 16
References................................................................................................................ 17
1.1 INTRODUCTION
A reliability analysis of a Markov repairable system has been a hot topic for some time
and various models based on Markov processes have been developed. For example,
Liu et al. (2015) proposed a cold standby repairable system with working vacations
and vacation interruption following a Markovian arrival process. Montoro-Cazorla
and Pérez-Ocón (2014) studied a reliability system under different types of shock
governed by a Markovian arrival process and maintenance policy. Du et al. (2016)
developed a degradation model for repairable systems based on a continuous-time
Markov process with multiple discrete states.
These models gave clear defnitions of failure and working states, but in prac-
tice, there are situations considering time omission problems where systems can be
regarded as operating in failure states under some restrictions. A new model where
failure can be thought of as an operation time during repair time was frstly proposed
in Zheng et al. (2006). It was extended to the series Markov repairable system with
neglected or delayed failures by Bao and Cui (2010), and to the aggregated Markov
repairable system with repair time omission which considers that one complex sys-
tem may have hundreds of states by Liu et al. (2013a).
While under some circumstances, system operation can be thought of as a failure
time in working time. It is commonly seen in the power station system, where only
after the power station recovers from failure and runs normally for a period of time,
1
2 Stochastic Models in Reliability Engineering
the users think the power station has been well repaired. Yi and Cui (2017) modelled
discrete repairable degradation systems with working time omission by a homoge-
neous discrete-time second-order semi-Markov chain. Zhang et al. (2017) studied
the performance of a single-unit repairable system consisting of two states (up and
down) with working and repair time omission by an alternative renewal process.
This chapter is an extension of Zheng et al. (2006) and Zhang et al. (2017), through
generalizing exponential distributions to Phase-type distributions. In the present
chapter, an irreducible homogenous continuous-time Markov process {X (t ), t ³ 0}
is proposed to model the evolution of a system, in which not enough long operation
time will be regarded as a failure time. The formulas for reliability indexes of the
system under the proposed new model are derived by exploiting the theory of aggre-
gated stochastic processes.
The theory of aggregated stochastic processes was introduced by Colquhoun
and Hawkes (1982) to model the behaviour of ion-channels. Then many researchers
greatly enriched this theory, such as Jalali and Hawkes (1992a, 1992b), Merlushkin
and Hawkes (1997) and Ball (1987, 1999). The theory of aggregated stochastic pro-
cesses has been widely used in the reliability feld theses years, and various models
have been developed to describe repairable systems, such as Cui et al. (2012, 2014),
Liu et al. (2013b), Li et al. (2016), Wen et al. (2016) and Du et al. (2018). This chapter
applies the theory of aggregated stochastic processes to derive the formulas for the
distribution of time to frst failure, point-wise, and interval availabilities of the new
proposed repairable system.
Various performance metric indexes have been studied by many researchers
(e.g., Levitin et al., 2014, Liu et al., 2017, Hao and Yang, 2018, and Yu et al., 2018).
Availabilities are considered in repairable systems such as the point-wise availability
and interval availability, which is the probability that the system will be able to work
within the tolerances at a given instant time or a time interval respectively (Barlow
and Proschan, 1965). Cui and Xie (2001) studied the availability of the periodically
inspected system under the random walk model, and an extended case combining
random repair and replacement time was discussed by Cui and Xie (2005). Qiu et
al. (2017) derived the formulas for instantaneous and steady-state availabilities for
a competing-risk system undergoing periodic inspections. Many reliability indexes
including the distribution of the time to frst failure, mean time to frst failure, point-
wise, steady, and interval availabilities are discussed in this chapter.
Engines of motor vehicles operate within a specifc speed range which is limited
by the idle speed and the maximum speed (Reif, 2014). They do not have a constant
torque and power in such a speed range, but they have an optimal elastic speed range
between the maximum torque and the maximum power. Hence, a vehicle cannot
start running directly when the engine stays in its stationary state. If the vehicle has
not been running for many hours before starting, the engine will usually run at a low
rpm (600–1000 rpm), which is called cold start. If the engine operates without any
loads and the vehicle is not in motion, this state is called idling.
The effciency of the vehicle engine is not a constant number, but changes with
rpm. The transmission aims to keep the engine in its peak effciency. When shifting
up different higher gears and accelerating, the vehicle engine goes to a high rpm since
more power is required. For normally driving, the operating range for most engines
Reliability Analysis of Pseudo Markov System 3
is in the range of 1500–3000 rpm. 2000 rpm is an ideal rpm for constant speed driv-
ing. Hence, on the basis of the engine speed, engine states can be discretized into a
state space which is defned by S = {0,1, , 5} where states 1 to 5 denote 650 rpm,
1500 rpm, 2000 rpm, 2500 rpm, 3000 rpm respectively. State 0 represents 0 rpm
which means the vehicle engine is at rest. The vehicle is stationary but the engine is
running when it stays at state 1 which is the idle state. The vehicle usually stays in
its idle state for 30 seconds to 60 seconds. If the engine is fameout and goes to state
0 when it stays at state 1 before transferring to other states, the vehicle has no actual
displacement during this period, which is called the pseudo working time. A possible
state transition route of the vehicle engine is shown in Figure 1.1.
The rest of the content is organized as follows. Basic assumptions of our model
are given in Section 1.2. Reliability indexes such as the distributions of the time to
frst failure, mean time to frst failure, point-wise availabilities, steady availabilities
and interval availabilities under two cases when τ is a constant and a random variable
are discussed respectively in Section 1.3. After obtaining the closed form formu-
las for reliability indexes, some numerical examples are presented to illustrate the
results in Section 1.4. Finally, in Section 1.5, conclusions and future research work
are provided.
æ QWW QWF ö
Q=ç ÷.
è QFW QFF ø
4 Stochastic Models in Reliability Engineering
P(t ) = exp(Qt),
where P(t) whose ijth element is Pij (t ) = P(state j at time t state i at time 0) , denotes
the probability of the repairable system being in each state of S at time instant t,
given the initial probability vector. The initial probability is p 0 = (p W , p F ).
We list some basic notations and results that shall be used in the following deri-
vation. Two important performance measures were introduced by Colquhoun and
Hawkes (1982) as follows.
pij ,WW (t ) = P(system remains within W throughout time 0 to tiime t,
PWW(t) is defned as a |W| × |W| matrix whose ijth element is pij ,WW (t ). We have
*
PWW (s) = (sI - QWW )-1,
where I is a unit matrix with proper dimensions, and s is the complex argument. GWF(t)
is a |W| × |F| matrix whose ijth element is gij(t), which is defned as
D ù,
W for state j between t and t + Dt in state i at time 0 /Dt
û )
i Î W , j Î F.
We can fnd that:
GWF (t ) = PWW (t )QWF . (1.2)
* *
GWF (s) = PWW (s)QWF = (sI - QWW )-1 QWF . (1.3)
* -1
GWF := GWF (0) = - QWW QWF . (1.4)
GWF gives the transition probabilities from one of the states in W to one of the states
in F, allowing for any number of transitions within the states in W before the system
eventually leaves for F.
Reliability Analysis of Pseudo Markov System 5
Hawkes et al. (1990) introduced two new indexes which were derived from divid-
*
ing the Laplace transform of PWW(t) into two parts: SWW (s) which describes a short
*
sojourn in W (smaller than τ) and LWW (s) which describes a long sojourn in W (not
smaller than τ). Their expressions are
ò
*
SWW (s)(sI - QWW ) = e -st exp(QWW t )dt
-1
0 (1.5)
{ (
= I - exp - ( sI - QWW )t )} (sII - Q
WW )-1,
ò
L*WW (s) ( sI - QWW ) = e -st exp ( QWW t ) dt
-1
t (1.6)
(
= exp - ( sI - QWW )t ) ( sI - Q )
WW
-1
.
In the present chapter, system operation can be thought of as in a failure time when
the system stays in W but fails before the length of sojourn time in W reaches a given
value τ. These short sojourns in W (less than τ) are defned as pseudo working time,
and long sojourns in W (not less than τ) are defned as effective working time. For
the vehicle engine system, τ is 30 seconds. The running time of the engine which is
less than τ is the pseudo working period because the vehicle does not run actually.
The following assumptions are presented to describe the new model:
(1) There are two statuses of the observation for the original system: working
and failure. The new model also has two subsets, which are state W* and
state F*. The state W* denotes the working period while state F* denotes
the failed period.
(2) When the original system is in the failure status, the new model is in the
failed state F*.
(3) When the original system starts to work but stays in the working period W
less than a specifed value τ, the new system is still in the failed state F*
during this pseudo working period.
(4) When the original system starts to work and stays in the working period W
not less than τ, the new system can be considered to stay in working state
W* from the time instant when the system enters the status W to the time
when the system breaks down.
A new stochastic process {Y (t ), t ³ 0} describes the running path for the new system,
with state space S * = {W * , F *}, which is defned as follows:
FIGURE 1.2 Possible sample paths of the original system and the new model.
Figure 1.2 shows some possible system evolution paths for both the original system
and the new model.
p W L*WW (s)GWF
*
(s )1F
f X*1 (s) = , (1.8)
p W LWW GWF 1F + p W SWW (-QWW )-1 1W
where 1W = (1,,1)TW ´1, and T indicates transposition.
Reliability Analysis of Pseudo Markov System 7
LWW and SWW in Equations (1.7) and (1.8) are obtained by setting s = 0 in L*WW (s) and
*
SWW (s) , which depict the probabilities of system staying in W for not smaller and
smaller than τ, respectively. Equations (1.7) and (1.8) are obtained since when t < τ,
the system fails only if the situation where the sojourn time in working states does not
exceed τ occurs; when t ≥ τ occurs, the system goes through a long sojourn in W and
then transfers to F. Based on two well-known results: (1) the probability density func-
tion of the sum of random variables is the convolution of their individual probability
density functions; (2) the Laplace transform of the required probability density func-
tion is the product of the Laplace transforms of the individual probability density func-
tions, Equations (1.7) and (1.8) can be obtained. The denominators in Equations (1.7)
and (1.8) are used to make f x1 become a probability density function. Then, we have
¥ (1.10)
AX (t ) = P( X (t ) Î W ) = p 0 exp(Qt)(1W , 0F )T , (1.11)
where 1W is a column vector of |W| ones and 0F is a column vector of |F| zeros.
Given a time interval [a,b],
æ IW ´W ö
where EW = ç ÷ .
ç 0F ´W ÷
è ø S ´W
8 Stochastic Models in Reliability Engineering
For the new model, we discuss the point-wise availability frstly. The point-wise
availability under the new model of stochastic process {Y (t ), t ³ 0} is defned as
AY (t ) = P(Y (t) Î W * ).
In terms of whether there is transition from the failure states F to the working
states W, AY(t) can be divided into two cases.
if t ≥ τ,
min( t ,t )
AY 1 (t ) =
ò
0
p 0 exp ( Q(t - h) ) EF QFW exp(QWWt )1W dh
(1.16)
max( t ,t )
+
ò
t
p 0 exp ( Q(t - h)
h ) EF QFW exp(QWW h)1W dh,
æ 0W ´ F ö
where EF = ç ÷ .
ç IF´F ÷
è øS´F
The explanation of Equation (1.16) is that before entering the working state W*, the
system may transfer between W and F for any times and then transfer to W fnally,
which is denoted as p 0 exp(Q(t - h))EF QFW . Then, the system has to work at least
for a length of τ.
Combining Equations (1.15) and (1.16), we can fnd the point-wise availability
under the new model, AY(t), as follows:
Reliability Analysis of Pseudo Markov System 9
AY (t ) = AY 0 (t ) + AY1 (t )
+
ò
0
p 0 exp(Q(t - h))EF QFW exp(QWWt )1W dh (1.17)
max( t ,t )
+
ò
t
p 0 exp(Q(t - h))E
EF QFW exp(QWW h)1W dh.
ò
AY* (s) = p W (sI - QWW )-11W + p 0 (sI - Q)-1 exp(-Qh)dhEF QFW exp(QWWt )1
0
) W
-1 -1
+ p 0 (sI - Q) EF QFW (sI - QWW ) 1W (1.18)
t
ò
- p 0 (sI - Q)-1 exp(-Qh) EF QFW exp(Q
0
p WW h)1W dh.
ò exp(-Qh)dhE Q
-1
+ lim sp 0 (sI - Q) F FW exp(QWWt )1W (1.19)
s®0
0
s®0 ò
- lim s p 0 (sI - Q)-1 exp(-Qh) EF QFW exp(QWW h)1W dh.
0
Next, we discuss the interval availability under the new model. Given a time interval
[a,b], the interval availability under the new model of stochastic process {Y (t ), t ³ 0}
is defned as AY ([ a, b]) = P{Y (t ) = W * , for all t Î [ a, b]}. When calculating AY([a,b]),
three situations should be considered as follows.
a) If b < τ, without transitions, the system starts from W and keeps in W until
time b, but in order to meet the requirement of availability, the system has
to stay in W until time τ. Then, we have
10 Stochastic Models in Reliability Engineering
¥ ¥
å å éëG
n n
fT*a (s) = p W é GWF
* *
(s)GFW (s) ùû + p F GFW
*
(s) * *
(s)GFW (s) ùû
ë WF
n=1 n=0 (1.22)
{
= p W éë I - GWF
* *
(s)GFW
-1
(s) ùû - I + p F GFW
*
}
(s) éë I - GWF
*
(s)G *
) FW (s) ùû .
-1
Equation (1.22) is obtained based on Figure 1.3. The possible transition routes for Ta
are: (1) starts from W, goes through any number (1, 2,¼, ¥) of transitions from W to
F and back to W; (2) starts from F, transfers to W, and then experiences any number
(0,1, , ¥) of transitions from W to F and back to W. So far, all possible transitions
are considered.
Two circumstances should be considered in terms of the comparison between τ
and the length of interval:
i) when b - a < t ,
é a
AY 31 ([a, b]) = I[b- a <t ] ê
ê ò
êë (b-t ) +
fTa (v) exp(QWWt )1W dv
(1.23)
(b-t )+ ù
+
ò0
fTa (v)) exp ( QWW (b - v) ) 1W dv ú .
ú
úû
Asia oli siis sillä kannalla, että, jos jotain oli tehtävä, oli se näiden
kahden naisen tehtävä, sillä he eivät saattaneet toivoa minkäänlaista
apua suunnitelmissaan. Tässä lisättäköön, että rouva kertoi Marielle
Hansin läsnäollessa ajatelleensa hyökkäystä päällikön kimppuun.
Lähemmin mietittyään hän kuitenkin luopui siitä kahdestakin syystä,
ensiksi, koska hän pelkäsi vain pahentavansa asioita ja riistävänsä
minulta ainoat auttajat, ja toiseksi, koska hän pelkäsi hankkivansa
Hansille kuoleman, sillä jutun jäljet varmasti johtaisivat häneen.
"Isäni ei ole sama kuin hän on ollut, Allan", sanoi Marie. "Toisinaan
tulen ajatelleeksi, että hän on menettänyt järkensä."
"Niin, olkaa hyvä ja tehkää se", mumisi Hans, "sillä muuten tiedän
sellaisen, joka ammutaan."
"Hyvä, minä menen", sanoi rouva Prinsloo ja hän meni, vartijoiden
päästettyä hänet jonkun sanan sanottuaan, joita emme kuulleet.
"No?" kysyin.
"Mitkä buurit?" kysyin unisena; "ja kuinka minä voin juosta, kun
nämä repaleet lepattavat kinttujeni ympärillä?"
Näin se kuului:
'Rakas mieheni!
Sinun Mariesi.'
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