atmosphere

Article
Impact of Climate Change on Extreme Rainfall Events and
Pluvial Flooding Risk in the Vojvodina Region (North Serbia)
Jovana Bezdan 1, *, Atila Bezdan 1, * , Boško Blagojević 1 , Sanja Antić 1 , Amela Greksa 1 , Dragan Milić 2
and Aleksa Lipovac 3

1 Department of Water Management, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Novi Sad, 21000 Novi Sad, Serbia;
[email protected] (B.B.); [email protected] (S.A.); [email protected] (A.G.)
2 Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Novi Sad, 21000 Novi Sad,
Serbia; [email protected]
3 Faculty of Agriculture, University of Belgrade, 11000 Belgrade, Serbia; [email protected]
* Correspondence: [email protected] (J.B.); [email protected] (A.B.)

Abstract: Extreme precipitation events, which are common natural hazards, are expected to increase
in frequency due to global warming, leading to various types of floods, including pluvial floods. In
this study, we investigated the probabilities of maximum 3-day precipitation amount (Rx3day) occur-
rences during spring in the Vojvodina region, covering both past (1971–2019) and future (2020–2100)
periods. We utilized an ensemble of eight downscaled, bias-corrected regional climate models
from the EURO-CORDEX project database, selecting the RCP8.5 scenario to examine future Rx3day
amounts. The probabilities of occurrences of Rx3day were modeled using the GEV distribution, while
the number of events where Rx3day in spring exceeds specific thresholds was modeled using the
Poisson distribution. The results indicate that Rx3day with a ten-year return period during the spring
months is expected to increase by 19% to 33%. Additionally, the probabilities of having more than
one event where Rx3day exceeds thresholds are projected to rise by 105.6% to 200.0% in the future
compared to the historical period. The analysis comparing the design values of Rx3day with future
projections for the period 2020–2100 revealed that 51 drainage systems are likely to function without
difficulties under future climate conditions. However, for the remaining 235 drainage systems, an
increased risk of pluvial flooding was identified, as their design precipitation amounts are lower
Citation: Bezdan, J.; Bezdan, A.;
than the future projections. This study reveals that analyzing extreme rainfall events in the context
Blagojević, B.; Antić, S.; Greksa, A.;
Milić, D.; Lipovac, A. Impact of
of climate change yields crucial information that facilitates effective planning and policy making in
Climate Change on Extreme Rainfall water management, particularly flood protection.
Events and Pluvial Flooding Risk in
the Vojvodina Region (North Serbia). Keywords: extreme rainfall; climate change; pluvial flood; flood risk; water management; drainage
Atmosphere 2024, 15, 488. https:// systems
doi.org/10.3390/atmos15040488

Academic Editor: Yi-Leng Chen

Received: 24 March 2024 1. Introduction

Revised: 9 April 2024
Global warming is expected to intensify the hydrological cycle, thereby increasing
Accepted: 13 April 2024
the intensity of extreme precipitation events and the risk of flooding [1]. Many studies
Published: 15 April 2024
have provided stronger evidence of an increase in extreme rainfall intensity at a global
scale [2]. The atmospheric temperature significantly influences extreme rainfall intensity,
as warmer air holds more water than cooler air, potentially contributing more moisture
Copyright: © 2024 by the authors.
to rainfall events [2,3]. Additionally, extreme precipitation is expected to intensify due
Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. to global warming across many parts of the world. This increase is linked to the greater
This article is an open access article concentration of atmospheric water vapor, which serves as the source of precipitation. The
distributed under the terms and rise in concentration occurs proportionally to the saturation levels, increasing at a rate
conditions of the Creative Commons of approximately 6–7% per degree of temperature rise. This relationship aligns with the
Attribution (CC BY) license (https:// thermodynamic Clausius–Clapeyron relationship [1].
creativecommons.org/licenses/by/ The increasing intensity of extreme rainfall due to climate change is a significant
4.0/). societal concern, as rainfall-induced floods are among the most costly and dangerous

Atmosphere 2024, 15, 488. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15040488 https://www.mdpi.com/journal/atmosphere

Atmosphere 2024, 15, 488 2 of 13

natural hazards globally [2,4–6]. Understanding changes in extreme weather events is

crucial for effective disaster management and mitigation, more so than changes in average
patterns. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [7] reports that areas with
rising mean precipitation are likely to experience more severe wet extremes, while areas
with decreasing mean precipitation are expected to face more severe dry extremes [8].
Consequently, understanding the changing patterns and impacts of extreme rainfall is
crucial for shaping rural and urban planning policies and for the development of effective
flood protection infrastructure [2].
Extreme precipitation events are common natural hazards that can lead to landslides
and various flood types, including pluvial, fluvial, and flash floods [9]. These occurrences,
forecasted to become more frequent due to global warming, are expected to significantly
impact the hydrological cycle, agricultural yields, and land use, as well as human life
and natural ecosystems [10]. Predicting extreme precipitation events is not only a major
scientific challenge but also crucial for societal needs, including civil protection and water
management optimization [11].
Waterlogging is a common problem with a harmful impact not only on crop produc-
tivity [12] but also on soil quality [13], human health [14], and urban infrastructure [15].
It results from heavy rainfall, floods, and a rise in the phreatic water table. When runoff,
infiltration, or evaporation are insufficient, excess water either accumulates on the surface
or groundwater seeps up through porous soil, leading to waterlogging [16]. In the Vojvod-
ina region, waterlogging and pluvial flooding primarily occur due to a large amount of
precipitation during the non-vegetation period or heavy rainfall in spring.
Extreme precipitation events have been extensively studied both on a global scale [17,18]
and on regional scales [19–21]. Extreme precipitation events are quantitatively characterized
using various indices. Common indices include maximum 1-day (Rx1day) and 5-day
(Rx5day) precipitation amounts, simple daily intensity index (SDII), number of heavy (R10)
and very heavy precipitation days (R20), consecutive wet days (CWDs), very wet days
(R95p), extremely wet days (R99p), and annual total wet-day precipitation (PRCPTOT) [10].
The extreme value theory (EVT) is used for modeling rare events and has proven effective
in precisely predicting the return periods of extreme precipitation events [20]. The EVT,
essential in water resources engineering and hydrology, comprises two main methods: the
traditional block maxima (BM), which selects the highest recorded value annually, and the
increasingly preferred peak over threshold (POT) method, offering a larger sample size for
more accurate distribution parameter estimation than BM [22–24].
The design rainfall is one of the most important parameters for flood control facility
design, where accurately approximating hydrological extremes is key to efficient hydraulic
infrastructure design. Inaccurate analyses can lead to underestimations, increasing failure
risk, or overestimations, raising construction costs [24–27]. For example, drainage systems
in the Vojvodina region are mostly designed based on excess water accumulated from
spring rainstorms with a return period of 10 years. Flood control systems and hydraulic
infrastructure are often large and costly, with significant expenses also associated with
their operation and maintenance. Assessing whether existing hydraulic infrastructure will
continue to function satisfactorily in the future, particularly in the context of climate change,
is critically important. This information is crucial as it enables the planning of appropriate
management and maintenance measures for these systems, the identification of critical
points, and the potential reconstruction of the system. In addition to analyzing historical
data and trends in hydrological parameters, it is also essential to consider projections of
climate changes for future periods.
In this study, we investigated the probabilities of occurrences of maximum 3-day pre-
cipitation amounts (Rx3day) during spring (March–May) in the Vojvodina region (northern
Serbia) for both the past (1971–2019) and future (2020–2100) periods. The maximum 3-day
precipitation amounts during spring were selected for analysis because the drainage sys-
tems in the Vojvodina region, which include about 286 systems that drain excess water from
2 million hectares of land, were designed based on these amounts with a 10-year return period.
Atmosphere 2024, 15, 488 3 of 13

Various physical characteristics of the drainage system’s watershed in the Vojvodina region,
including topography, geology, and land use, have determined that the time of concentration
for each drainage catchment or sub-catchment in the region is approximately 3 days. It is
usually assumed that the critical duration of rainfall, which generates the peak flow and
upon which the design, size, and properties of the drainage system depend, is equal to the
time of concentration of the catchment. Rx3day was analyzed only for spring, as the excess
water in the Vojvodina region typically results from heavy precipitation during this season.
Intense precipitation in the summer months rarely causes waterlogging, owing to high rates
of evapotranspiration during that period and because soil water reserves are usually low or
depleted. Accordingly, threshold levels were determined using the maximum 3-day precipita-
tion amounts in spring with a 10-year return period based on past data (1971–2019). We then
analyzed the distribution of the number of events exceeding these thresholds in the past and
future. An ensemble of eight downscaled, bias-corrected regional climate models from the
EURO-CORDEX project database was utilized, with the RCP8.5 scenario selected to study
future 3-day precipitation amounts. The results of this study could be highly valuable for
planning and policy making in water management activities, particularly in flood protection.
This was demonstrated by assessing the future pluvial flood risk in the Vojvodina region.
This study involved comparing the current design properties of existing drainage systems
with future requirements and identifying those expected to underperform under projected
future climate conditions. As data on the design properties of drainage systems were available
only for the Vojvodina region, our study focused specifically on this area. However, the
methodology and analysis could be applied anywhere in the world.

2. Materials and Methods

2.1. Study Area
Our study is centered on the Vojvodina region in Serbia (Figure 1), situated in southeast
Europe and covering approximately 21,500 km2 . The region, located between 44.6◦ N and
46.2◦ N latitude and 18.9◦ E and 21.5◦ E longitude, experiences a temperate continental
climate with cold winters, warm and humid summers, significant seasonal temperature
fluctuations, and uneven precipitation distribution [28]. According to the Köppen climate
classification, the Vojvodina region’s climatological formula is Cfwbx, indicating a mild
Atmosphere 2024, 15, 488 4 of 14
temperate/mesothermal climate with significant year-round precipitation, dry winters,
and a secondary precipitation peak in autumn [29].

(a) (b)
Figure
Figure 1. 1. Studyarea:
Study area:(a)
(a)topographic
topographic map
mapofofthe
theVojvodina
Vojvodinaregion, (b)(b)
region, thethe
Vojvodina region
Vojvodina on the
region on the
map of Europe.
map of Europe.
2.2. Data
For the analysis of historical extreme rainfall events, specifically maximum 3-day
precipitation amounts (Rx3day) during spring months from 1971 to 2019, daily
precipitation data were obtained from 9 principal meteorological stations in the Vojvodina
region. To analyze future extreme rainfall events from 2020 to 2100, we used an ensemble
Atmosphere 2024, 15, 488 4 of 13

Spatial and temporal precipitation distribution in the region is uneven. Based on data
from 9 meteorological stations of the Republic Hydrometeorological Service of Serbia from
1971 to 2016, as noted by Bezdan et al. [30], the average annual precipitation is 615 mm,
with 249 mm occurring during the growing season and 366 mm in the non-growing season.
The mean annual air temperature is 11.5 ◦ C, rising to 18.3 ◦ C in the growing season and
dropping to 4.7 ◦ C in the non-growing season.

2.2. Data
For the analysis of historical extreme rainfall events, specifically maximum 3-day
precipitation amounts (Rx3day) during spring months from 1971 to 2019, daily precipitation
data were obtained from 9 principal meteorological stations in the Vojvodina region. To
analyze future extreme rainfall events from 2020 to 2100, we used an ensemble of 8 regional
climate models from the EURO-CORDEX project database, with a spatial resolution of 0.1◦
(Table 1).

Table 1. Combinations of global and regional climate models selected for use in this study [31,32].

Regional Model Global Model

CLMcom-CCLM4-8-17 ICHEC-EC-EARTH
DMI-HIRHAM5 ICHEC-EC-EARTH
KNMI-RACMO22E ICHEC-EC-EARTH
CLMcom-CCLM4-8-17 MOHC-HadGEM2-ES
KNMI-RACMO22E MOHC-HadGEM2-ES
CLMcom-CCLM4-8-17 MPI-M-MPI-ESM-LR
MPI-CSC-REMO2009 MPI-M-MPI-ESM-LR (r1i1p1)
MPI-CSC-REMO2009 MPI-M-MPI-ESM-LR (r2i1p1)

The use of this ensemble of 8 bias-corrected regional climate models was recommended
for climate simulations over the territory of Serbia. This recommendation comes from
the Digital Climate and Climate Change Atlas of the Republic of Serbia. The atlas was
developed as part of the “Advancing medium and long-term adaptation planning in the
Republic of Serbia” project funded by the Green Climate Fund, the Ministry of Agriculture,
Forestry and Water Management, and the Ministry of Environmental Protection of the
Republic of Serbia [31]. The RCP8.5 (Representative Concentration Pathway) scenario
from the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC AR5) was selected, as Serbia has already
experienced the temperature changes predicted by this scenario for the next 20 years.
Consequently, choosing milder scenarios, such as RCP 6.0, RCP 4.5, or RCP 2.6, would be
inadequate [32,33].

2.3. Extreme Value Analysis

The Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution function was chosen to study the
probabilities of occurrences of Rx3day, as it is commonly used in similar hydrological
analyses [24,34]. The GEV distribution is characterized by three parameters: location (µ),
scale (σ), and shape (ξ). According to the shape parameter, the cases where ξ = 0, ξ > 0,
and ξ < 0, correspond, respectively, to the Gumbel, Fréchet, and Weibull distributions. The
cumulative distribution function of the GEV for a random variable x is as follows:
  h  i− 1 
exp − 1 + ξ x−µ
 ξ
, ξ ̸= 0
σ
F ( x; µ, σ, ξ ) = n h  io (1)
 exp −exp − x−µ

, ξ = 0
σ

The goodness of fit of the GEV distribution was tested using the Anderson–Darling
test with a significance level of 0.05. Critical values for the Anderson–Darling test were
calculated using Monte Carlo bootstrap simulations with the “nsRFA” R package [35]. The
GEV distributions were fitted to empirical data through maximum likelihood estimation
Atmosphere 2024, 15, 488 5 of 13

using the “fitdistrplus” R package [36]. Maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) is a sta-
tistical method used to determine the parameters of a model or probability distribution
that best describes a given dataset, and it is one of the most commonly used methods in
statistical inference [37,38]. MLE possesses many optimal properties and offers numerous
advantages in estimation. As stated by Myung [37], the advantages of MLE include suffi-
ciency (the MLE estimator contains complete information about the parameter of interest),
consistency (the true parameter value that generated the data is recovered asymptotically,
i.e., for sufficiently large samples), efficiency (the lowest possible variance of parameter
estimates is achieved asymptotically), and parameterization invariance (the same MLE
solution is obtained regardless of the parametrization used). However, MLE also has
several disadvantages that must be considered when applying it, such as limited small
sample performance (estimates can be biased in small samples, and for small to medium
datasets, there are no rigorous selection criteria [39,40]), outlier sensitivity (MLE is sensi-
tive to outliers, which can disproportionately influence the estimates, leading to skewed
results [41]), and model dependence (MLE requires accurate knowledge of the probability
distribution that generates the data; if the distribution is misspecified, the estimates can
be biased or inconsistent [42]). Nevertheless, various studies [40,43,44] have shown that
the L-moment and LH-moment methods for parameter estimation of distributions, such as
the GEV, are less influenced by sample variability and the presence of outliers compared
to other parameter estimation methods, namely the Method of Moments (MOM) or MLE,
particularly for small- and medium-sized datasets.
The Poisson distribution is the most commonly used model for analyzing the distri-
bution of the number of peaks that exceed a specific threshold level [45,46]. Therefore, for
modeling the number of events (Rx3day in spring) exceeding thresholds, we employed the
Poisson distribution. Threshold levels were established based on Rx3day in spring with a
10-year return period derived from past data (1971–2019). Subsequently, we analyzed the
distribution of Rx3day in spring that exceeded these thresholds in both the past and the
future.
According to the Poisson distribution, the probability of k exceedances occurring
within the time period [0, t] is as follows:

[λ (t)]k −λ1 (t)

P Ekt = 1


e (2)
k!
where
- Ekt represents the event where exactly k events (Rx3day in spring exceeding thresholds)
occur within the time interval [0, t];
- k = 0, 1, 2, . . .;
- [0, t] = [1 March–31 May] = 92 days;
- λ1 (t) represents the average number of events where Rx3day in spring exceeds thresh-
olds within the time interval [0, t].

3. Results and Discussion

The analysis of Rx3day can provide crucial insights for the development of strategies
and policies in the field of water management. This study illustrates this through the
evaluation of future pluvial flood risks in the Vojvodina region.
As previously mentioned, about 286 drainage systems manage the excess water in
the Vojvodina region. These systems are designed based on specific rainfall and excess
water criteria, including Rx3day during spring with a 10-year return period. The selection
of Rx3day events is due to the fact that the time of concentration—the time needed for
runoff to travel from the hydraulically furthest point in a catchment to the outlet—is
approximately 3 days for each drainage catchment or sub-catchment in the region, owing
to their characteristics.
Analyses of past (1971–2019) and future (2020–2100) occurrences of Rx3day in spring
were conducted at nine principal meteorological stations in the Vojvodina region. This
 runoff to travel from the hydraulically furthest point in a catchment to the outlet—is
approximately 3 days for each drainage catchment or sub-catchment in the region, owing
to their characteristics.
Analyses of past (1971–2019) and future (2020–2100) occurrences of Rx3day in spring
Atmosphere 2024, 15, 488
were conducted at nine principal meteorological stations in the Vojvodina region. This 6study
of 13

focused on the following characteristics of the stochastic process of these occurrences: the
probabilities of occurrence and the number of events exceeding specified thresholds.
study focused on the following characteristics of the stochastic process of these occurrences:
the
3.1.probabilities of occurrence
The Probabilities and of
of Occurrences the number 3-Day
Maximum of events exceedingAmounts
Precipitation specified thresholds.
TheProbabilities
3.1. The time seriesofof Rx3day was
Occurrences modeled 3-Day
of Maximum using Precipitation
the GEV distribution.
Amounts The results of
the goodness of fit test indicate a suitable fit between the GEV distribution and the
The time series of Rx3day was modeled using the GEV distribution. The results of the
empirical data for Rx3day in spring. This distribution was used to calculate Rx3day with
goodness of fit test indicate a suitable fit between the GEV distribution and the empirical
a 10-year return period. These calculations were performed for all analyzed
data for Rx3day in spring. This distribution was used to calculate Rx3day with a 10-year
meteorological stations, considering both past and future periods. For the future period,
return period. These calculations were performed for all analyzed meteorological stations,
probabilitiesboth
considering of past
occurrences
and futurewere determined
periods. as median
For the future period,values. Theseofvalues
probabilities were
occurrences
derived from the precipitation data obtained from all eight regional
were determined as median values. These values were derived from the precipitation data climate models and
based on the RCP8.5 scenario.
obtained from all eight regional climate models and based on the RCP8.5 scenario.
For the
For the past
past period,
period, our
our results
results show
show that that Rx3day
Rx3day with
with aa ten-year
ten-year return
return period
period
during spring
during spring months
months varied
varied from
from 42.4
42.4 mm
mm to to50.0
50.0mmmm(Figure
(Figure2a).
2a). Furthermore,
Furthermore, the the
results suggest that these amounts are expected to significantly increase
results suggest that these amounts are expected to significantly increase in the future in the future period,
rangingranging
period, from 54.1from
mm 54.1
to 63.8
mmmm to(Figure
63.8 mm 2b).(Figure
This increase represents
2b). This increasea rise of 19% toa 33%,
represents rise
depending on the location (Figure 2c). The most substantial increase
of 19% to 33%, depending on the location (Figure 2c). The most substantial increase in Rx3day is expectedin
in the northeastern
Rx3day is expected inpart of the region.
the northeastern partThis
of theincrease
region.inThis
maximum
increase 3-day precipitation
in maximum 3-day
amounts is amounts
precipitation expected,is expected,
as numerous studies studies
as numerous suggest a significant
suggest a significantintensification
intensification of
precipitation
of precipitationextremes in Europe
extremes in Europeunder future
under climate
future projections
climate [47,48].
projections In similar
[47,48]. studies
In similar
of future
studies ofextreme events inevents
future extreme the European climate, results
in the European climate,indicate
resultsthat whilethat
indicate the while
frequency
the
of heavy winter precipitation is expected to increase in Central Europe,
frequency of heavy winter precipitation is expected to increase in Central Europe, the the frequency of
heavy summer precipitation will decrease over most of Europe [49,50].
frequency of heavy summer precipitation will decrease over most of Europe [49,50].

(a) (b) (c)

Figure2.2.Rx3day
Figure Rx3day with
with aa ten-year
ten-year return
returnperiod
periodduring
duringspring
springmonths
monthsfor the
for past
the period
past (1971–2019)
period (a)
(1971–2019)
for the future period (2020–2100) (b) and the percentage increase of precipitation amounts (c).
(a) for the future period (2020–2100) (b) and the percentage increase of precipitation amounts (c).

3.2. The Number of Events Exceeding Specified Thresholds

The number of events when Rx3day in spring exceeds specific thresholds (k) in both
the past and future are modeled using the Poisson distribution. Previously calculated
values of Rx3day with a 10-year return period from past data (1971–2019) were used as
threshold levels.
To determine whether the events k are independent and identically distributed random
variables, run tests [51,52] were conducted. These tests were performed at a 5% significance
level for all nine meteorological stations using both past data and data from the selected
ensemble of eight regional climate models. The run tests supported the hypothesis of
randomness. In addition, serial correlation coefficients for these event series were calculated.
Significance testing at the 5% probability level confirmed the independence of the events.
The data showed no significant serial correlation. The Pearson χ2 and Kolmogorov–Smirnov
tests were used to assess the agreement between theoretical and empirical distribution
functions. The values obtained from these goodness of fit tests exceeded the critical values
for the 5% significance level, indicating good agreement.
Results indicate that during the past period (1971–2019), the probabilities of having
more than one event k in the spring months varied from 0.16 to 0.19 (Figure 3a). In the
 were calculated. Significance testing at the 5% probability level confirmed the
independence of the events. The data showed no significant serial correlation. The Pearson
χ2 and Kolmogorov–Smirnov tests were used to assess the agreement between theoretical
and empirical distribution functions. The values obtained from these goodness of fit tests
Atmosphere 2024, 15, 488 exceeded the critical values for the 5% significance level, indicating good agreement.7 of 13
Results indicate that during the past period (1971–2019), the probabilities of having
more than one event k in the spring months varied from 0.16 to 0.19 (Figure 3a). In the
future period,
future period, these
these probabilities
probabilities areare expected
expected toto increase
increase significantly,
significantly,with
withprojections
projections
showing a range from 0.37 to 0.51 for more than one event k in the spring
showing a range from 0.37 to 0.51 for more than one event k in the spring months (Figure months (Figure
3b).
3b). This
This increase
increase represents
represents a riseaof
rise of 105.6%
105.6% to 200.0%,
to 200.0%, depending
depending on theonlocation
the location (Figure
(Figure 3c).
3c). This
This resultresult
alignsaligns
with with the findings
the findings of Nissen
of Nissen and Ulbrich
and Ulbrich [53], [53],
who who concluded
concluded that that
the
the frequency
frequency of extreme
of extreme precipitation
precipitation eventsevents
in mostinEuropean
most European
regions isregions is projected
projected to
to increase
increase
by by upintothe
up to 150% 150% in the
future future
under theunder
RCP8.5 thescenario.
RCP8.5 scenario.

(a) (b) (c)

Figure 3. The probabilities of k > 0 during the past period (1971–2019) (a), in the future period (2020–
Figure 3. The probabilities of k > 0 during the past period (1971–2019) (a), in the future period
2100) (b), and the percentage increase (c).
(2020–2100) (b), and the percentage increase (c).

3.3. Future
3.3. Future Pluvial
Pluvial Flood
Flood Risk
Risk Assessment
Assessment
The future
The future pluvial flood
flood risk
riskininthe
theVojvodina
Vojvodinaregionregionwas
wasassessed by by
assessed comparing
comparingthe
design
the properties
design propertiesand capabilities
and capabilitiesofofexisting
existingdrainage
drainagesystems
systems with estimated future
future
requirements and
requirements andidentifying
identifying systems
systems expected
expected totounderperform
underperform under
under projected
projectedfuture
future
climateconditions.
climate conditions.
According to
According to the
the design
design documents
documents fromfrom the
the public
public water
water management
management company,
company,
which manages
which manages all water
water management
managementactivities
activitiesininthe region,
the thethe
region, drainage systems
drainage in the
systems in
Vojvodina
the Vojvodina region
regionwereweredesigned,
designed,constructed,
constructed,ororreconstructed
reconstructed around the mid-20th
around the mid-20th
century.
century.These
Thesedocuments
documentscontain
containinformation
informationon onRx3day
Rx3dayduring
duringspring
springbased
basedon onwhich
which
Atmosphere 2024, 15, 488 the 8 of as
14
the drainage
drainage systems
systems werewere designed.
designed. These values ranged from 15 mm mm toto 91
91 mm,
mm, as
presented in Figure
presented in Figure 4. 4.

Figure 4.
Figure 4. Designed
Designed Rx3day
Rx3day during
during spring.
spring.

In this analysis, we first compared the design

design values of Rx3day during spring with
the modeled values. These were obtained using the GEV distribution based on data series
from 1971 to 2019, as presented in Section 3.1, Figure
Figure 2a.
2a. This comparison was performed
in order to evaluate the performance of drainage systems in the past period. The results
are presented in Figure 5. The difference between the designed values and those modeled
based on the data series from 1971 to 2019 varies from −41 mm to +34 mm.
 Figure 4. Designed Rx3day during spring.

Atmosphere 2024, 15, 488 In this analysis, we first compared the design values of Rx3day during spring with 8 of 13
the modeled values. These were obtained using the GEV distribution based on data series
from 1971 to 2019, as presented in Section 3.1, Figure 2a. This comparison was performed
ininorder
ordertotoevaluate
evaluatethetheperformance
performanceofofdrainage
drainagesystems
systemsininthe
thepast
pastperiod.
period.The
Theresults
results
are presented in Figure 5. The difference between the designed values
are presented in Figure 5. The difference between the designed values and those and those modeled
modeled
based
basedononthe
thedata
dataseries
seriesfrom
from1971
1971toto2019
2019varies
variesfrom
from−41
−41mm mm to to
+34 mm.
+34 mm.

Number of
drainage systems

% of the total
drainage area
Figure 5. 5.
Figure The difference
The between
difference betweenthe design
the values
design ofof
values Rx3day
Rx3dayduring
duringspring and
spring the
and modeled
the values
modeled values
using the GEV distribution based on data series from 1971 to 2019.
using the GEV distribution based on data series from 1971 to 2019.

Negative
Negative values
values imply
imply that
thatthose
thosedrainage
drainagesystems
systemscould
couldhave
havedrained
drained more
moreexcess
excess
water
water than what occurred in the analyzed period, suggesting that these systemslikely
than what occurred in the analyzed period, suggesting that these systems likely
performed
performedeffectively
effectivelywithout
withoutproblems
problemsinindraining
drainingexcess
excesswater.
water.Also,
Also,high
highnegative
negative
values
valuescould
couldindicate
indicate that those
that systems
those were
systems probably
were overdesigned.
probably We identified
overdesigned. 175
We identified
systems, most most
175 systems, of the of total number
the total number of systems, which
of systems, whichwere weredesigned
designedforforprecipitation
precipitation
amounts
amountsexceeding
exceedingthose
thosethat
that occurred
occurred in the
the analyzed
analyzedperiod.
period.These
Thesedrainage
drainagesystems
systems are
colored
are colored dark
darkgreen
greenin in
Figure
Figure 5. 5.
Theremaining
The remainingdrainage
drainagesystems,
systems,numbering
numbering111,111,likely
likelyfaced
facedsome
somedifficulties
difficultiesinin
drainingexcess
draining excess water.This
water. Thisisisbecause
becausetheir
theirdesign
designvalues
values forfor Rx3day
Rx3day duringspring
during springwere
were
lowerthan
lower thanthose
thoserecorded
recordedininthe theanalyzed
analyzedperiod.
period.These
Thesesystems
systemscancanbebeconsidered
consideredtoto
have operated with a certain level of risk of pluvial flooding and are represented in shades
ranging from light green to red in Figure 5. Notably, only 23 out of the 286 drainage systems,
accounting for approximately 5.7% of the total drained area in the Vojvodina region, could
be classified as having a high risk of pluvial flooding during the analyzed period. This
classification is based on the difference between the designed and modeled precipitation
amounts greater than 20 mm.
In the next step, the impact of climate change on the operation of drainage systems
and future pluvial flooding risks is assessed. As Visser et al. [54] have stated, traditional
approaches to designing for extreme precipitation and flooding, which have relied on the
assumption of a stationary climate, are likely to be inadequate for planning beyond a few
decades. They suggest that infrastructure design will benefit from incorporating the best
estimates of future changes in extreme precipitation based on climate model projections.
This approach has also been applied in this study. The design values of Rx3day during
spring are compared with future projections. These future amounts are modeled using the
GEV distribution and are based on precipitation data from eight regional climate models.
This is described in Section 3.1, Figure 2b. The results are presented in Figure 6. The
difference between the designed values and future projections for the period 2020 to 2100
varies from −28 mm to +45 mm.
 This approach has also been applied in this study. The design values of Rx3day during
spring are compared with future projections. These future amounts are modeled using the
GEV distribution and are based on precipitation data from eight regional climate models.
This is described in Section 3.1, Figure 2b. The results are presented in Figure 6. The dif-
Atmosphere 2024, 15, 488 ference between the designed values and future projections for the period 2020 to 2100 9 of 13
varies from −28 mm to +45 mm.

Number of
drainage systems

% of the total
drainage area

Figure 6. The difference between the design values of Rx3day during spring and the future projections
Figure 6. The difference between the design values of Rx3day during spring and the future projec-
for the period 2020 to 2100.
tions for the period 2020 to 2100.
It has been identified that 51 drainage systems have a negative difference, as their
It has been
designed identifiedvalues
precipitation that 51aredrainage systems
higher than have aprojections.
the future negative difference,
These systemsas their
cover
designed precipitation values are higher than the future projections. These
approximately 11.6% of the total drainage area in the Vojvodina region. It can be expected systems cover
approximately 11.6% of
that these systems thecontinue
will total drainage areawithout
to operate in the Vojvodina
difficultiesregion.
under Itfuture
can be expected
climate condi-
thattions,
thesegiven
systems will continue to operate without difficulties under future
that their design capacities are sufficient to handle the anticipated excess climate con-
water
ditions,
demandsgiveninthat their design capacities are sufficient to handle the anticipated excess
the future.
water demands in the future.
In the remaining 235 drainage systems, the designed precipitation amounts fall below
future projections. 235
In the remaining Thisdrainage
implies systems, the designed
an increased precipitation
risk of pluvial floodingamounts
in thosefall be- In
areas.
low47future projections. This implies an increased risk of pluvial flooding
drainage systems, which cover approximately 16.5% of the total drainage area in in those areas. Inthe
47 drainage
Vojvodinasystems,
region, which
a high cover
risk ofapproximately
pluvial flooding 16.5%
canofbethe total drainage
expected area in This
in the future. the is
Vojvodina
because region,
the futurea high risk of pluvial
projections flooding
of Rx3day during canspring,
be expected
with ain10-year
the future.
returnThis is
period,
because
exceed thethe
future projections
designed valuesofby Rx3day
more during
than 20spring,
mm. with a 10-yearthat
Considering return
theperiod, ex-
probabilities
ceed
ofthe designed values
experiencing more bythanmore
onethan 20 mm.
extreme Considering
precipitation thatin
event thethe
probabilities
spring months of expe-
(k) are
riencing more than one extreme precipitation event in the spring months (k)
expected to increase across the entire Vojvodina region, a worsening hydrological situation are expected
to increase acrosschallenges
and increased the entirein Vojvodina region, a worsening
water management activities inhydrological
the region are situation and for
anticipated
the future.
Detailed results for selected drainage systems, provided for illustrative purposes,
are presented in Table 2. For instance, the Begeč–Gložan drainage system, located in the
southwest of the region on the Danube River, serves as an example of a system whose
design ensures satisfactory operation even under projected future climate conditions. For
this drainage system, the design values of Rx3day during spring are higher than future
projections. On the other hand, the Idvor–Uzdin drainage system, situated in the southern
part of the region, represents a system that is expected to underperform under future
climate conditions, thereby exposing its drained territory to a high level of pluvial flood
risk. For this drainage system, the design values of Rx3day during spring are significantly
lower than the future projections.
Atmosphere 2024, 15, 488 10 of 13

Table 2. Detailed analysis results of the occurrences of Rx3day in spring for selected drainage systems.

Rx3day during Spring

The Probabilities of k > 0
Name of the with a 10-Year Return Period (mm)
Drainage System Design
1971–2019 2020–2100 1971–2019 2020–2100
Value
Begeč–Gložan 64.0 49.1 60.6 0.18 0.39
Burza 52.0 42.4 56.2 0.18 0.45
Vranj 44.0 47.5 56.8 0.17 0.40
Sonćanski rit 29.0 44.8 54.1 0.16 0.41
Dobrica–Ilandža 26.0 47.8 58.2 0.18 0.45
Idvor–Uzdin 15.5 44.3 58.5 0.17 0.44
The colors correspond to the palette used in Figures 5 and 6.

Similar to the results of this study, numerous other studies across Europe indicate that
future climate change is expected to intensify heavy rainfall events and pluvial floods, with
projections suggesting an increase in both the frequency and intensity of these events [55].
These changes are confirmed to escalate under various climate scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP
8.5), emphasizing the growing challenge of pluvial flooding, which will require greater
attention [56,57]. Additionally, analyses predict a 47% rise in flood volumes for 10-year
events and nearly a doubling of flood frequency, turning what was historically a 5-year
event into a 2-year event [58]. This aligns with the results of our study, which shows that
pluvial flood risk will significantly increase in the future, with an expected underperfor-
mance in 88% of all drainage systems in the Vojvodina region. Given these projections,
the design of pluvial flooding infrastructure will greatly benefit from incorporating the
best estimates of future changes in extreme precipitation to ensure resilience and adequacy.
Compared to other studies, this study investigated Rx3day, which represents the design
rainfall upon which the drainage system design is based. The obtained results indicate
the extent to which certain drainage systems should be redesigned to perform adequately
under future climate conditions. However, for precise calculations of runoff in a particular
drainage system, detailed topographic characteristics of the watershed, soil properties,
and land cover/land use data are needed in addition to Rx3day amounts. For this study,
data from nine main meteorological stations in the Vojvodina region were used. Utilizing
data from additional stations, such as local meteorological stations in the area of a specific
drainage system, could increase the precision of Rx3day calculations. This is because the
uneven distribution of meteorological stations may affect the research results [59,60].

4. Conclusions
The impact of climate change on extreme rainfall events and the associated risk of
pluvial flooding was analyzed by studying the past (1971–2019) and future (2020–2100)
occurrences of Rx3day in spring at nine principal meteorological stations in the Vojvodina
region. Rx3day in spring with a 10-year return period was chosen because the design of
pluvial flood protection systems in the Vojvodina region is based on these values. The
RCP8.5 scenario was selected to study future Rx3day events in spring, and an ensemble of
eight regional climate models from the EURO-CORDEX project database was employed.
The research concentrated on specific aspects of the stochastic process related to these
occurrences, including the probabilities of their occurrence and the number of events
exceeding predefined thresholds.
The results indicate that Rx3day with a ten-year return period during the spring
months is expected to increase by 19% to 33% in the future compared to the past period,
depending on the location. Regarding the probabilities of having more than one event
when Rx3day in spring exceeds specific thresholds, results show an increase in the future
period ranging from 105.6% to 200.0% in the Vojvodina region.
By calculating the difference between the drainage systems’ design values of Rx3day
during spring and the modeled values for the period from 1971 to 2019, 111 drainage
systems that likely had difficulties in draining excess water were identified. This is because
Atmosphere 2024, 15, 488 11 of 13

their design Rx3day values were lower than those observed in the analyzed period. The
remaining 175 drainage systems were identified as potentially capable of operating with-
out difficulties since their design Rx3day values were higher than those observed in the
analyzed period.
The analysis of the difference between the design values of Rx3day during spring
and future projections for the period 2020–2100 revealed that 51 drainage systems are
likely to operate without difficulties under future climate conditions. This is because their
design capacities are considered sufficient to handle the anticipated increase in excess water
demands. For the remaining 235 drainage systems, an increased risk of pluvial flooding
was identified because their designed precipitation amounts are below future projections.
The results demonstrate that the approach presented for analyzing extreme rainfall
events, within the context of climate change, can provide necessary and highly valuable
information. This information enables effective planning and policy making in water
management activities, especially flood protection.

Author Contributions: Conceptualization, J.B. and A.B.; methodology, J.B. and A.B.; formal analysis,
J.B., A.B., A.L. and B.B.; data curation, S.A. and A.G.; writing—original draft preparation, J.B. and
A.B.; writing—review and editing, A.L., B.B., S.A., A.G. and D.M. All authors have read and agreed
to the published version of the manuscript.
Funding: This work was supported by the European Union’s Horizon Europe innovation action
program under grant agreement No. 101094070, project DALIA (Danube Region Water Lighthouse
Action); the Ministry of Science, Technological Development, and Innovation of Serbia (Grant No.
451-03-65/2024-03/200117); and the Interreg’s Danube Region Programme project “Danube Water
Balance”, project code DRP0200156.
Institutional Review Board Statement: Not applicable.
Informed Consent Statement: Not applicable.
Data Availability Statement: Due to privacy the data that support the findings of this study are
available upon request from the authors.
Acknowledgments: We acknowledge the support by the Drought and Excess Water Management
Centre established within the project Interreg-IPA CBC Hungary-Serbia (HUSRB/1602/11/0057):
WATERatRISK; A.B. and J.B. are members of COST Actions CA22162–FutureMed and CA22122-
RethinkBlue. We acknowledge the dataset from the digital platform developed within the “Improve-
ment of medium-term and long-term planning of adaptation measures to changed climate conditions
in the Republic of Serbia” project funded by the Green Climate Fund, the Ministry of Agriculture,
Forestry, and Water Management, and the Ministry of Environmental Protection of the Republic of
Serbia.
Conflicts of Interest: The authors declare no conflicts of interest.

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