Reproducibility Principles Problems Practices and Prospects 1st Edition Harald Atmanspacher - The ebook in PDF format with all chapters is ready for download
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Reproducibility Principles Problems Practices and
Prospects 1st Edition Harald Atmanspacher Digital
Instant Download
Author(s): Harald Atmanspacher, Sabine Maasen
ISBN(s): 9781118864975, 1118864972
Edition: 1
File Details: PDF, 7.28 MB
Year: 2016
Language: english
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REPRODUCIBILITY
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REPRODUCIBILITY
Principles, Problems, Practices, and
Prospects
Edited by
HARALD ATMANSPACHER
Collegium Helveticum, University and ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
k SABINE MAASEN k
Munich Center for Technology in Society, Technical University, Munich, Germany
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Copyright © 2016 by John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved
No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any
means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, scanning, or otherwise, except as permitted under
Section 107 or 108 of the 1976 United States Copyright Act, without either the prior written permission of the
Publisher, or authorization through payment of the appropriate per-copy fee to the Copyright Clearance Center,
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Limit of Liability/Disclaimer of Warranty: While the publisher and author have used their best efforts in
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Table of Contents
Contributors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ix
Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
Harald Atmanspacher and Sabine Maasen
Introductory Remarks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
Harald Atmanspacher
Reproducibility, Objectivity, Invariance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
Holm Tetens
Reproducibility between Production and Prognosis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21
Walther Ch. Zimmerli
Stability and Replication of Experimental Results:
k A Historical Perspective . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39 k
Friedrich Steinle
Reproducibility of Experiments: Experimenters’ Regress,
Statistical Uncertainty Principle, and the Replication Imperative . . . 65
Harry Collins
Introductory Remarks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83
Harald Atmanspacher
Statistical Issues in Reproducibility . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87
Werner A. Stahel
Model Selection, Data Distributions and Reproducibility . . . . . . . . . . . . 115
Richard Shiffrin and Suyog Chandramouli
Reproducibility from the Perspective of Meta-Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 141
Werner Ehm
Why Are There so Many Clustering Algorithms,
and How Valid Are Their Results? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 169
Vladimir Estivill-Castro
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Index . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 563
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Contributors
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Introduction
Harald Atmanspacher and Sabine Maasen
Reproducibility has become a hot topic both within science and at the inter-
face of science and society. Within science, reproducibility is threatened, among
other things, by new tools, technologies, and big data. At the interface of science
and society, the media are particularly concerned with phenomena that question
good scientific practice. As bad news sell, today problems of reproducibility seem
to be ranked right next to fraud. The economy, and especially the biotechnology
economy, is interested in innovation based upon novel yet robust knowledge and
politics in the so-called knowledge societies seek to base their decisions on best
evidence, yet is regularly confronted with competing expertise.
A key step toward increasing attention to deep problems with reproducible
findings in science was the paper “Why most published research findings are
false” by Ioannidis (2005). One among many recent urging proclamations fol-
lowing it was published in The Scientist magazine (Grant 2012):
Since about a decade voices abound – both in academia and in the media – that
lament lacking reproducibility of scientific results and urgently call for better
practice. Given that scientific achievements ultimately rest upon an effective
division of labor, it is of paramount importance that we can trust in each other’s
findings. In principle, they should be reproducible – as a matter of course;
however, we often simply rely on the evidence as published and proceed from
there. What is more, current publication practices systematically discourage
replication, for it is novelty that is associated with prestige. Consequently, the
career image of scientists involved with cutting-edge research typically does not
include a strong focus on the problems of reproducing previous results.
And, clearly, there are problems. In areas as diverse as social psychology
(Nosek 2012), biomedical sciences (Huang and Gottardo 2013), computational
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These references are a tiny subset of the existing literature on problems with reproducibility.
Many more examples will be addressed in the main body of this volume.
2
The project is a large-scale, open collaboration currently involving more than 150 scien-
tists from around the world. The investigation is currently sampling from the 2008 issues
of the Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, Psychological Science, and Journal of
Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition; see Open Science Collaboration
(2012). The results have been published by the Open Science Collaboration (2015); see also
https://osf.io/ezcuj/.
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Introduction 3
and/or best practices that are intended to improve reproducibility and safeguard
against irreproducibility.
The challenges of sound reproducible research have moved into the focus of
interest in an increasing number of fields. This handbook is the first comprehen-
sive collection of articles concerning the most significant aspects of the principles
and problems, the practices and prospects of achieving reproducible results in
contemporary research across disciplines. The areas concerned range from nat-
ural sciences and computational sciences to life sciences and social sciences,
philosophy, and science studies.
Accordingly, the handbook consists of six parts. Each of them will be intro-
duced by separate remarks concerning the background and context of aspects
and issues specific to it. These introductory remarks will also contain brief sum-
maries of the chapters in it and highlight particularly interesting or challenging
features.
Part I covers contextual background that illuminates the roots of the con-
cept of reproducibility in the philosophy of science and of technology (Tetens,
Zimmerli), and addresses pertinent historical and sociological traces of how re-
producibility came to be practiced (Steinle, Collins). Part II frames the indis-
pensable role that statistics and probability theory play in order to assess and
k k
secure reproducibility. Basic statistical concepts (Stahel), new ideas on model
selection and comparison (Shiffrin and Chandramouli), the difficult methodol-
ogy of meta-analysis (Ehm), and the novel area of data mining and knowledge
discovery in big-data science (Estivill-Castro) are covered.
Parts III–V are devoted to three main areas of contemporary science: phys-
ical sciences, life sciences, and social sciences. Part III includes the viewpoints
of computational physics (Bailey, Borwein, and Stodden), severe novel prob-
lems with reproducibility in complex systems (Atmanspacher and Demmel), the
field of extreme and rare events (Kantz), and reproducibility in climate research
(Feulner). Part IV moves to the life sciences, with articles on drug discovery
and development (Martic-Kehl and Schubiger, Folkers and Baier), the neurobi-
ological study of cortical networks (Lengler and Steger), cognitive neuroscience
(Anderson) and social neuroscience (Vogeley).
Part V offers material from the social sciences: a critical look at the reduc-
tion of complex processes to numbers that statistics seems to render unavoidable
(Porter), innovative strategies to explore question order effects in surveys and
polls (Wang and Busemeyer), original views on public opinion research (Keller),
issues of reproducibility as indicated in the “blogosphere” (Reinhart), and an
in-depth study of notorious problems with reproducibility in scholarly communi-
cation (Franzen).
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Introduction 5
ciplinary research with differing standards, and they may become impossible in
extra-scientific contexts.
To put this in simple terms: Society cannot but trust in science and its
internal procedures to produce knowledge that is both true and, hence, trust-
worthy. Therefore, the recently perceived lack of reproducibility is not only an
intra-scientific affair but is also critically noticed by societal actors such as the
mass media (e.g., Zimmer 2012). Moreover, it is addressed by science political
actors (Maasen, this volume) or editors of scholarly journals (Franzen, this vol-
ume) and by concrete measures such as codes of conduct to improve scientific
practice.
Finally, a few remarks concerning terminology are in order. Although we
chose to use the notion of reproducibility to characterize the topic of this volume,
there is another term that is often used interchangeably: replicability. This is
visible in the surprisingly few volumes or reviews on the topic that can be found
in the literature (e.g., Sidman 1960, Smith 1970, Krathwohl 1985, Schmidt
2009). And it also shows in the contributions to this volume – some authors
prefer one, some the other notion, and (to the best of our knowledge) there is
no authoritative delineation between them.
One feature, however, seems significant for “replication” and is very rarely
k k
addressed in terms of “reproduction”: As the literature shows (e.g., Charron-
Bost 2009), replication is mostly referred to if one focuses on how data are copied
(rather than reproduced by repeated observations or measurements). This is
particularly evident in information technology communities (distributed systems,
databases), but of course also in genetic (DNA) replication.
A third related notion is repeatability. It is primarily adopted if an obser-
vational act (measurement) or a methodological procedure (data analysis) is
repeated, disregarding the replication or the reproduction of the result of that
act or procedure. An experiment may be repeated within the same laboratory
or across laboratories. This difference is sometimes addressed as the difference
between “internal” and “external” repetitions. Whether or not its results and
conclusions from them are compatible would be a matter of reproducibility.
Whatever the most appropriate notion for “reproducibility” may be, this vol-
ume shows that it would be wrong to think that it can be universally stipulated.
Depending on context, one may want to reproduce system properties character-
izable by single values or distributions of such values. One may be interested
in patterns to be detected in data, or one may try to reproduce models inferred
from data. Or reproducibility may not relate to quantitative measures at all.
All these “reproducibilities” unfold an enormous interdisciplinary tension which
is inspiring and challenging at the same time.
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As reflexive interactions between science and society take place, novel dis-
courses and means of control emerge which are ultimately designed to enforce
the accomplishment of truly reliable knowledge. All this happens in addition
to the variety of reproducibilities as well as in view of ever-more contexts re-
garded as relevant and ever-changing (technical) conditions. One prospect for
reproducibility seems to be clear: Challenges from within science will certainly
continue to meet with those from the outside and jointly leave their traces on the
ways in which science and technology produce robust knowledge. Reproducibility
will remain at the heart of this process.
The nucleus of this volume has been a long-term research project on repro-
ducibility at Collegium Helveticum, an interdisciplinary research institution jointly
operated by the University of Zurich and the Swiss Federal Institute of Tech-
nology (ETH) Zurich. Our engagement with the project as editors, grounded
in the exact sciences and in the area of science studies, emerged from our long
lasting affiliation with the Collegium as associate fellows. We appreciate great
encouragement and support by the Collegium and its fellows, in particular by
Gerd Folkers and Martin Schmid.
k k
An editorial conference at the Munich Center for Technology in Society
(Technical University Munich) in fall 2014 with all authors was instrumental
for the preparation of the volume in a consistent fashion, with numerous cross-
references among the papers. Our thanks go to the staff of the center for orga-
nizing this event. Various colloquia, workshops, and symposia on reproducibility
at Zurich and Munich have been influential all along the way.
But most of all, we want to express our gratitude to the contributors to
this volume. For none of them, thinking and writing on reproducibility is their
regular day job. Nevertheless, we realized so much enthusiasm about this project
that any possible grain of doubt concerning its success dissolved rapidly. As all
reviewers of the proposal for the project emphasized, the volume is of utmost
timeliness and significance, and this spirit pervaded all our conversations and
correspondences with its authors. Without their deep commitment, and without
the support of Susanne Steitz-Filler and Sari Friedman at Wiley, this book would
not have become reality.
References
Alberts, B., Cicerone, R.J., Fienberg, S.E., Kamb, A., McNutt, M., Nerem, R.M.,
Schekman, R., Shiffrin, R., Stodden, V., Suresh, S., Zuber, M.T., Kline Pope,
k
Other documents randomly have
different content
earth but we are already half gone to the next world. We see with different eyes,
and that makes it often difficult to associate with people who call themselves,
and really are religious.... My greatest sin is my irritability. The endless
stupidity of my maid, for instance—she can’t help being stupid, she is so often
untruthful, or else she begins to sermonize like a preacher and then I burst—you
know how hot-tempered I am. It is not difficult to bear great trials, but these
little buzzing mosquitoes are so trying. I want to be a better woman, and I try.
For long periods I am really patient, and then breaks out again my bad temper.
We are to have a new confessor, the second in these seven months. I beg your
forgiveness, too, darling. Day after tomorrow is the Sunday before Lent when
one asks forgiveness for all one’s faults. Forgive the past, and pray for me.
Yesterday we had prayers for the dead, and we did not forget your father. A few
days ago was the twenty-sixth anniversary of my father’s death. I long to warm
and to comfort others—but alas, I do not feel drawn to those around me here. I
am cold towards them, and this, too, is wrong of me.
The cowardly yielding of the Bolshevist government to the triumphant
Germans was a source of constant suffering to the Empress. In subsequent
letters written me that spring she speaks almost indifferently of the cold and
privations suffered in the house in Tobolsk, but she becomes passionate when
she writes of the German invasion.
What a nightmare it is that it is Germans who are saving Russia (from
Communism) and are restoring order. What could be more humiliating for us?
With one hand the Germans give, and with the other they take away. Already
they have seized an enormous territory. God help and save this unhappy
country. Probably He wills us to endure all these insults, but that we must take
them from the Germans almost kills me. During a war one can understand these
things happening, but not during a revolution. Now Batoum has been taken—
our country is disintegrating into bits. I cannot think calmly about it. Such
hideous pain in heart and soul. Yet I am sure God will not leave it like this. He
will send wisdom and save Russia I am sure.
It will always be to me an immense gratification that in the midst of her great
pain and sorrow for Russia’s piteous plight our small group of friends in
Petrograd, and those brave souls who dared to risk their lives as message
bearers, were able to get to the forlorn family in desolate Siberia at least the
necessities of life of which a cruel and inefficient government deprived them.
The Empress who all her life had but to command what she wanted for herself
and her children was grateful, pathetically grateful, for the simple garments, the
cheap little luxuries, even the materials for needlework we were able to convey
to them. She thanks me almost effusively for the jackets and sweaters we sent
her and the girls in their cold rooms. The wool was so soft and nice, but the
linen, she feared, was almost too fine. This was early in March, but spring was
already creeping across the steppes.
The weather is so fine that I have been sitting out on the balcony writing
music for the Lenten prayers, as we have no printed notes. We had to sing this
morning without any preparation, but it went—well, not too badly. God helped.
After service we tried to sing some new prayers with the new deacon, and I
hope it will go better tonight.[24]
On Wednesday, Friday and Saturday mornings we were allowed to go to the
eight o’clock morning service in church—imagine the joy and comfort! The
other days we five women will sing during the home service. It reminds me of
Livadia and Oreanda. This week we shall spend the evenings alone with the
children, as we want to read together. I know of nothing new. My heart is
troubled but my soul remains tranquil as I feel God always near. Yet what are
they deciding on in Moscow? God help us.
“Peace and yet the Germans continue to advance farther and farther in,”
wrote the Empress on March 13 (Russian). “When will it all finish? When God
allows. How I love my country, with all its faults. It grows dearer and dearer to
me, and I thank God daily that He allowed us to remain here and did not send us
farther away. Believe in the people, darling. The nation is strong, and young,
and as soft as wax. Just now it is in bad hands, and darkness and anarchy reigns.
But the King of Glory will come and will save, strengthen, and give wisdom to
the people who are now deceived.”
For some reason the Empress seemed to feel that the Lenten season of 1918
was destined to end in an Easter resurrection of the torn and distracted country.
At least so her letters indicate. In a mood of fitful kindness and mercy the
Bolshevist soldiers in authority in Tobolsk allowed their captives to go rather
often to church and to Communion during this season, and the Empress was
very happy in consequence. Her letters were full of prayers for the country, in
which the whole family joined, and they appeared to look forward to Easter as
the day when God would give some token that the sins of the Russian people,
for which they were suffering, were forgiven. Yet never once did she speak of
regaining power or the throne. All that was over and forgotten. Neither the
Emperor nor the Empress ever indicated in any syllable that they expected to be
returned to their former eminence. In fact they never spoke of what might
actually happen to the Russian Empire, but they believed that God would hold it
together and restore its people to wisdom and strength. For themselves they
seemed to look forward to nothing better than an obscure existence with other
Russian people. How uncomplainingly they accepted the hard terms of their
lives, how grateful they were for the love of distant friends whom they might
never see again, is shown in all the last letters I received from the Empress
during March, 1918. After receiving one of our parcels of clothing she wrote
me:
We are endlessly touched by all your love and thoughtfulness. Thank
everybody for us, please, but really it is too bad to spoil us so, for you are
among so many difficulties and we have not many privations, I assure you. We
have enough to eat, and in many respects are rich compared with you. The
children put on yesterday your lovely blouses. The hats also are very useful, as
we have none of this sort. The pink jacket is far too pretty for an old woman like
me, but the hat is all right for my gray hair. What a lot of things! The books I
have already begun to read, and for all the rest such tender thanks. He was so
pleased by the military suit, vest, and trousers you sent him, and all the lovely
things. From whom came the ancient image? I love it.
Our last gifts to you, including the Easter eggs, will get off today. I can’t get
much here except a little flour. Just now we are completely shut off from the
south, but we did get, a short time ago, letters from Odessa. What they have
gone through there is quite terrible. Lili is alone in the country with her
grandmother and our godchild, surrounded by the enemy. The big Princess
Bariatinsky and Mme. Tolstoy were in prison in Yalta, the former merely
because she took the part of the Tartars. Babia Apraxine with her mother and
children live upstairs in their house, the lower floor being occupied by soldiers.
Grand Duchess Xenia with her husband, children, and mother are living in
Dülburg. Olga Alexandrovna (the Emperor’s sister) lives in Haraks in a small
house because if she had remained in Aitodor she would have had to pay for the
house. What the Germans are doing! Keeping order in the towns but taking
everything. All the wheat is in their hands, and it is said that they take seed-
corn, coal, former Russian soldiers—everything. The Germans are now in
Bierki and in Charkoff, Poltava Government. Batoum is in the hands of the
Turks.
Sunbeam (Alexei) has been ill in bed for the past week. I don’t know
whether coughing brought on the attack, or whether he picked up something
heavy, but he had an awful internal hemorrhage and suffered fearfully. He is
better now, but sleeps badly and the pains, though less severe, have not entirely
ceased. He is frightfully thin and yellow, reminding me of Spala. Do you
remember? But yesterday he began to eat a little, and Dr. Derevanko is satisfied
with his progress. The child has to lie on his back without moving, and he gets
so tired. I sit all day beside him, holding his aching legs, and I have grown
almost as thin as he. It is certain now that we shall celebrate Easter at home
because it will be better for him if we have a service together. I try to hope that
this attack will pass more quickly than usual. It must, since all Winter he was so
well.
I have not been outside the house for a week. I am no longer permitted to sit
on the balcony, and I avoid going downstairs. I am sorry that your heart is bad
again, but I can understand it. Be sure and let me know well in advance if you
move again. Everyone, we hear, has been sent away from Tsarskoe. Poor
Tsarskoe, who will take care of the rooms now? What do they mean when they
speak of an “état de siège” there?...
Darling “Sister Seraphine”:
I want to talk to you again, knowing how anxious you will be for Sunbeam.
The blood recedes quickly—that is why today he again had very severe pains.
Yesterday for the first time he smiled and talked with us, even played cards, and
slept two hours during the day. He is frightfully thin, with enormous eyes, just
as at Spala. He likes to be read to, eats little—no appetite at all in fact. I am with
him the whole day, Tatiana or Mr. Gilliard relieving me at intervals. Mr. Gilliard
reads to him tirelessly, or warms his legs with the Fohn apparatus. Today it is
snowing again but the snow melts rapidly, and it is very muddy. I have not been
out for a week and a half, as I am so tired that I don’t dare to risk the stairs. So I
sit with Alexei.... A great number of new troops have come from everywhere. A
new Kommissar has arrived from Moscow, a man named Jakovleff, and today
we shall have to make his acquaintance. It gets very hot in this town in Summer,
is frightfully dusty, and at times very humid. We are begging to be transferred
for the hot months to some convent. I know that you too are longing for fresh
air, and I trust that by God’s mercy it may become possible for us all.
They are always hinting to us that we shall have to travel either very far
away, or to the center (of Siberia), but we hope that this will not happen, as it
would be dreadful at this season. How nice it would be if your brother could
settle himself in Odessa. We are quite cut off from the south, never hear from
anybody. The little officer will tell you—he saw me apart from the others.[25] I
am so afraid that false rumors will reach your ears—people lie so frantically.
Probably the little one’s illness was reported as something different, as an
excuse for our not being moved.[26] Well, all is God’s will. The deeper you look
the more you understand that this is so. All sorrows are sent us to free us from
our sins or as a test of our faith, an example to others. It requires good food to
make plants grow strong and beautiful, and the gardener walking through his
garden wants to be pleased with his flowers. If they do not grow properly he
takes his pruning knife and cuts, waiting for the sunshine to coax them into
growth again. I should like to be a painter, and make a picture of this beautiful
garden and all that grows in it. I remember English gardens, and at Livadia you
saw an illustrated book I had of them, so you will understand.
Just now eleven men have passed on horseback, good faces, mere boys—this
I have not seen the like of for a long time. They are the guard of the new
Kommissar. Sometimes we see men with the most awful faces. I would not
include them in my garden picture. The only place for them would be outside
where the merciful sunshine could reach them and make them clean from all the
dirt and evil with which they are covered.
God bless you, darling child. Our prayers and blessings surround you. I was
so pleased with the little mauve Easter egg, and all the rest. But I wish I could
send you back the money I know you need for yourself. May the Holy Virgin
guard you from all danger. Kiss your dear mother for me. Greetings to your old
servant, the doctors, and Fathers John and Dosifei. I have seen the new
Kommissar, and he really hasn’t a bad face. Today is Sacha’s (Count Voronzeff,
aide-de-camp) birthday.
March 21.
Darling child, we thank you for all your gifts, the little eggs, the cards, and
the chocolate for the little one. Thank your mother for the books. Father was
delighted with the cigarettes, which he found so good, and also with the sweets.
Snow has fallen again, although the sunshine is bright. The little one’s leg is
gradually getting better, he suffers less, and had a really good sleep last night.
Today we are expecting to be searched—very agreeable! I don’t know how it
will be later about sending letters. I only hope it will be possible, and I pray for
help. The atmosphere around us is fairly electrified. We feel that a storm is
approaching, but we know that God is merciful, and will care for us. Things are
growing very anguishing. Today we shall have a small service at home, for
which we are thankful, but it is hard, nevertheless, not to be allowed to go to
church. You understand how that is, my little martyr.
I shall not send this, as ordinarily, through ——, as she too is going to be
searched. It was so nice of you to send her a dress. I add my thanks to hers.
Today is the twenty-fourth anniversary of our engagement. How sad it is to
remember that we had to burn all our letters, yours too, and others as dear.[27]
But what was to be done? One must not attach one’s soul to earthly things, but
words written by beloved hands penetrate the very heart, become a part of life
itself.
I wish I had something sweet to send you, but I haven’t anything. Why did
you not keep that chocolate for yourself? You need it more than the children do.
We are allowed one and a half pounds of sugar every month, but more is always
given us by kind-hearted people here. I never touch sugar during Lent, but that
does not seem to be a deprivation now. I was so sorry to hear that my poor
lancer Ossorgine had been killed, and so many others besides. What a lot of
misery and useless sacrifice! But they are all happier now in the other world.
Though we know that the storm is coming nearer and nearer, our souls are at
peace. Whatever happens will be through God’s will. Thank God, at least, the
little one is better.
May I send the money back to you? 1 am sure you will need it if you have to
move again. God guard you. I bless and kiss you, and carry you always in my
heart. Keep well and brave. Greetings to all from your ever loving,
A.
After this short letter from Olga came a card from Ekaterinaburg written
by one of the Empress’s maids at her dictation. It contained a few loving
words, and the news that they were recovering from the fatigue of their
terrible journey. They were living in two rooms—probably, although this is
not stated, under great privations. She hoped, but could not tell yet, that our
correspondence could be continued. It never was. I had a card a little later
from Mr. Gibbs saying that he and M. Gilliard had brought the children
from Tobolsk to Ekaterinaburg and that the family was again united. The
card was written from the train where he and M. Gilliard were living, not
having been allowed to join the family in their stockaded house. Mr. Gibbs
had an intuition that both of these devoted tutors were soon to be sent out of
the country and such proved to be the case. This was my last news of my
Empress and of my Sovereigns, best of all earthly friends.
In July short paragraphs appeared in the Bolshevist newspapers saying
that by order of the Soviet at Ekaterinaburg the Emperor had been shot but
that the Empress and the children had been removed to a place of safety.
The announcement horrified me, yet left me without any exact conviction
of its truth. Soviet newspapers published what they were ordered to publish
without any regard whatever to facts. Thus when a little later it was
announced that the whole family had been murdered—executed, as they
phrased it—imagine “executing” five perfectly innocent children!—I could
not make myself believe it. Yet little by little the public began to believe it,
and it is certain that Nicholas II and his family have disappeared behind one
of the world’s greatest and most tragic mysteries. With them disappeared all
of the suite and the servants who were permitted to accompany them to the
house in Ekaterinaburg. My reason tells me that it is probable that they were
all foully murdered, that they are dead and beyond the sorrows of this life
forever. But reason is not always amenable. There are many of us in Russia
and in exile who, knowing the vastness of the enormous empire, the
remoteness of its communications with the outside world, know well the
possibilities of imprisonment in monasteries, in mines, in deep forests from
which no news can penetrate. We hope. That is all I can say. It is said,
although I have no firsthand information on the subject, that the Empress
Dowager has never believed that either of her sons was killed. The Soviet
newspapers published accounts of the “execution” of Grand Duke Michail,
and strong evidence has been presented that he was murdered in Siberia
with others of the family, including the Grand Duchess Serge. These same
newspapers, however, officially stated that Grand Duke Michail had been
assisted to escape by English officers.
The most fantastic contradictions concerning all these alleged murders
have from time to time cropped up. When I was in prison in the autumn of
1919 a fellow prisoner of the Chekha, the wife of an aide-de-camp of Grand
Duke Michail, told me positively that she had received a letter from the
Emperor’s brother, safe and well in England.
Perhaps the strangest incident of the kind happened to me when I was
hiding from the Chekha after my last imprisonment and my narrow escape
from a Kronstadt firing squad. A woman unknown to me approached me
and calling me by my name, which of course I did not acknowledge,
showed me a photograph of a woman in nun’s robes standing between two
men, priests or monks. “This,” she said mysteriously and in a whisper, “is
one you know well. She sent it to you by my hands and asks you to write
her a message that you are well, and also to give your address that she may
write you a letter.”
I looked long at the photograph—a poor print—and I could not deny to
myself that there was something of a likeness in the face, and especially in
the long, delicate hands. But the Empress had always been slender, and after
her ill health became almost emaciated. This woman was stout. I might, had
I had the slightest assurance of safety, have taken the risk of writing my
name and address for this stranger. But no one in Russia takes such risks.
The net of the Chekha is too far flung.
I have one word more to say about these letters of the Empress
Alexandra Feodorovna. I have translated them as faithfully and as literally
as possible, leaving out absolutely nothing except a few messages of
affection and some religious expressions which seem to me too intimate to
make public, and which might appear exaggerated to western readers. I
have included letters which may be thought trivial in subject, but I have
done it purposely because I yearned to present the Empress as she was,
simple, self-sacrificing, a devoted wife, mother, and friend, an intense
patriot, deeply and consistently religious. She had her human faults and
failings, as she freely admits. Some of these traits can be described, as the
French express it, as “the faults of her quality.” Thus her great love for her
husband, which never ceased to be romantic and youthful, caused her at
times cruel heart pangs. Because this has nothing to do with her life or her
story I should not allude to the one cloud that ever came between us—
jealousy. I should leave that painful, fleeting episode alone, knowing that
she would wish it forgotten, except that in certain letters which have been
published she herself has spoken of it so bitterly that were I to omit mention
of it entirely I might be accused of suppressing facts.
I have, I think, spoken frankly of the preference of the Emperor for my
society at times, in long walks, in tennis, in conversation. In the early part
of 1914 the Empress was ill, very low-spirited, and full of morbid
reflections. She was much alone, as the Emperor was occupied many hours
every day, and the children were busy with their lessons. In the Emperor’s
leisure moments he developed a more than ordinary desire for my
companionship, perhaps only because I was an entirely healthy, normal
woman, heart and soul devoted to the family, and one from whom it was
never necessary to keep anything secret. We were much together in those
days, and before either of us realized it the Empress became mortally
jealous and suspicious of every movement of her husband and of myself. In
letters written during this period, especially from the Crimea during the
spring of 1914, the Empress said some very unkind and cruel things of me,
or at least I should consider them cruel if they had not been rooted in
illness, and in physical and mental misery. Of course the Court knew of the
estrangement between us, and I regret to say that there were many who
delighted in it and did what they could to make it permanent. My only real
friends were Count Fredericks, Minister of the Court, and his two
daughters, who stood by me loyally and kept me in courage.
That this illusion of jealousy was entirely dissipated, that the Empress
finally realized that my love and devotion for her precluded any possibility
of the things she feared, her letters to me from Siberia amply demonstrate.
Our friendship became more deeply cemented than before, and nothing but
death can ever sever the bond between us.
Other letters written by the Empress to her husband between 1914 and
1916 have within this past year found publication by a Russian firm in
Berlin. Some of them have been reproduced in the London Times, and I
have no doubt that they will also be published in America. These letters
reveal the character of the Empress exactly as I knew her. It is balm to my
bruised heart to read in the London Times that whatever has been said of her
betrayal, or attempted betrayal of Russia during the war, must be abandoned
as a legend without the least foundation. So must also be discarded
accusations against her of any but spiritual relations with Rasputine. That
she believed in him as a man sent of God is true, but that his influence on
her, and through her on the Emperor’s policies, had any political importance
I must steadfastly deny. Both the Empress and Rasputine liked Protopopoff
and trusted him. But that had nothing to do with his ministerial tenure. The
Empress, and I think also Rasputine, disliked and distrusted Grand Duke
Nicholas. But that had nothing to do with his demission. In these affairs the
Emperor made his own decisions, as I have stated. The strongest proof of
what I have written will be found in the letters of the Empress, those she
wrote to the Emperor, to her relations in Germany and England, and those
included in this volume. Nothing contradictory, nothing inconsistent has
ever been discovered, despite the efforts of the Empress’s bitter enemies,
the Provisional Government and the Bolshevists. Before all the world,
before the historians of the future, Alexandra Feodorovna, Empress of
Russia, stands absolved.
CHAPTER XXIII
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