MET 4 LESSON 1 Mean-and-Variance-of-Discrete-Probability-Distribution
MET 4 LESSON 1 Mean-and-Variance-of-Discrete-Probability-Distribution
Prerequisite Content Knowledge: The learners recall the concepts of mean, variance, & standard deviation of frequency distributions.
Prerequisite Assessment: 3 items short answer questions involving mean, variance, and standard deviation.
2 items multiple choice involving square and square roots. (Online/Offline)
Answer Key:
1. c
2. c
Mean
Mean is the average of the numbers, a calculated "central" value of a set of numbers.
Formula:
𝒙𝟏 + 𝒙𝟐 + 𝒙𝟑 + … + 𝒙𝒏
̅=
𝒙
𝒏
Where:
𝑥̅ = mean
𝑥1 , 𝑥2 , 𝑥3 = population
n = number of occurrences
Illustrative example: Find the mean for the following list of values 13, 18, 13, 14, 13, 16, 14, 21, 13
Solutions:
𝟏𝟑 + 𝟏𝟖 + 𝟏𝟑 + 𝟏𝟒 + 𝟏𝟑 + 𝟏𝟔 + 𝟏𝟒 + 𝟐𝟏 + 𝟏𝟑
̅=
𝒙
𝟗
PRIVATE EDUCATION ASSISTANCE COMMITTEE
𝟏𝟑𝟓
̅=
𝒙
𝟗
̅ = 𝟏𝟓
𝒙
Variance
Variance is the average of the squared differences from the MEAN.
Formula:
∑𝑛
𝑖=1(𝑥−𝑥̅ )
2
s2=
𝑛
where:
s2 = variance
i = starting point
n = number of samples
∑(𝑜𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛) = calculation is done recursively until n times
Illustrative example: Find the variance for the following list of values 13, 18, 13, 14, 13, 16, 14, 21, 13 Given a mean of 15.
[(13 − 15) 2 + (18 − 15) 2 + (13 − 15) 2 + (14 − 15) 2 + (13 − 15) 2 + (16 − 15) 2 + (14 − 15) 2 + (21 − 15) 2 + (13 − 15) 2 ]
s2=
9
s2 = 7.11
Standard Deviation
Standard deviation is a quantity calculated to indicate the extent of deviation for a group as a whole.
Formula:
∑𝑛
𝑖=1(𝑥−𝑥̅ )
2
s= √ 𝑛
Illustrative example: Find the variance for the following list of values 13, 18, 13, 14, 13, 16, 14, 21, 13 given a mean of 15.
Solutions:
∑𝑛
𝑖=1(𝑥−𝑥̅ )
2
s= √ 𝑛
s = √7.11
PRIVATE EDUCATION ASSISTANCE COMMITTEE
s = 2.67
Introduction
In this lesson the students will know what probability distribution is and how to construct the probability mass function. Students will also know and compute the mean and the variance
of a discrete random variable and be able to interpret the results. And finally, students will learn how to solve problems involving mean and variance of a discrete random variable.
Students learning from this topic can be used in computing for their general weighted average of their grades in Senior High School and be able to know if they are really performing
well in their different subjects. They can also use their learnings in their day to day activity i.e. finding the average of your daily allowance, average of your electric and water bills, etc. The
enabling formative assessment activities (EFAA) will determine their readiness in accomplishing the Performance Task.
Students are expected to finish this learning material in 120 minutes. For questions and other concerns, send message to (XXXX – XXXXXXX) or send an email to
[email protected].
Student’s Experiential Learning
Chunk 1 Formative Question Online Modality Offline Modality
Lesson presentation (Student’s Learning
Lesson presentation (PPT presentation, videos
How will you know if the given probability distribution is Materials/Module) on probability
and/or other platforms) on probability
Probability Distribution a discrete probability distribution? distribution and how to construct
distribution and how to construct probability
probability distribution table given the
distribution table given the data set.
data set.
Motivation:
In rolling a fair die, what is the probability of getting an odd number? even number? getting number 5?
Task 1
List all the possible outcomes when you roll a fair die.
Outcomes Probability
1
2
PRIVATE EDUCATION ASSISTANCE COMMITTEE
3
4
5
6
Task 1
Answer key:
List all the possible outcomes when you roll a fair die.
Outcomes Probability
1 1
6
2 1
6
3 1
6
4 1
6
5 1
6
6 1
6
Review:
What is Probability?
• How likely something is to happen
• Possibility
• Occurrence of a random event
• The value is expressed between zero and one
PRIVATE EDUCATION ASSISTANCE COMMITTEE
Illustrative example
Box A and Box B contains numbers 1, 2, 3, 4. Construct a probability distribution for the sum of the numbers taken at a time from each box with
replacement.
Solutions:
Possible Outcomes
• (1, 1) (2, 1) (3, 1) (4, 1)
• (1, 2) (2, 2) (3, 2) (4, 2)
• (1, 3) (2, 3) (3, 3) (4, 3)
• (1, 4) (2, 4) (3, 4) (4, 4)
Possible Sum:
• 2 3 4 5
• 3 4 5 6
• 4 5 6 7
• 5 6 7 8
Probability Distribution:
x 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
P(x) 1 2 3 4 3 2 1
16 16 16 16 16 16 16
Guide questions:
• How did we construct the probability distribution of the given situation?
• Is there any way around to construct the probability distribution?
• Can you construct the distribution for the sum of the numbers taken at a time from each box without replacement?
• How will you compare the two distributions?
Task 2
Determine whether the following show a discrete probability distribution or not.
x 1 2 3 4 5
P(x) 0.08 0.25 0.34 0.31 0.04
x 1 2 3 4 5
P(x) 0.03 0.22 1.01 0.23 0.0
x 1 2 3 4 5
P(x) 0.05 0.27 0.34 0.28 0.06
Task 2
Answer key:
Determine whether the following show a discrete probability distribution or not.
x 1 2 3 4 5
P(x) 0.08 0.25 0.34 0.31 0.04
x 1 2 3 4 5
P(x) 0.03 0.22 1.01 0.23 0.0
x 1 2 3 4 5
P(x) 0.05 0.27 0.34 0.28 0.06
Probability Distribution
Properties:
Illustrative example 1
Suppose a random variable X can only take the four values (0, 1, 2, and 3). If each value has equal probability, then its probability mass function is:
1
4
if x = 0
1
4
if x = 1
1
f(x) = if x = 2
4
1
if x = 3
4
0, otherwise
PRIVATE EDUCATION ASSISTANCE COMMITTEE
Illustrative example 2
Consider the given below:
1
f(x) = 30x2, if x Ɛ {1, 2, 3, 4}
0, otherwise
Solutions
1
a. f(x) = 30x2 > 0 for x Ɛ {1, 2, 3, 4}
f(x) = 0 for x not element of {1, 2, 3, 4}
hence, f(x) ≥ 0 the nonnegative property is satisfied.
The properties of a probability mass function are all satisfied. Therefore, the function is indeed a probability mass function.
or ∑[𝑥𝑃(𝑥)]
Where X = discrete random variable
x = outcome or value of the random variable
P(x) = probability of the outcome x
Hence, μ = ∑[𝑥𝑃(𝑥)]
Illustrative example 1
• A researcher surveyed the households in a small town. The random variable X represents the number of college graduates in the households.
The probability distribution of X is shown below.
• Find the mean or the expected value.
X 0 1 2
PRIVATE EDUCATION ASSISTANCE COMMITTEE
P(x) 0.25 0.50 0.25
Solutions:
Since E(X) = ∑[𝑥𝑃(𝑥)]
x P(x) xP(x)
0 0.25 0.00
1 0.50 0.50
2 0.25 0.50
∑[𝑥𝑃(𝑥)] = 1
Hence, E(X) = 1
Or μ = 1
Therefore, the average number of college graduates in the households of the small town is 1.
Illustrative example 2
• A security guard recorded the number of people entering the bank every hour during one working day. The random variable X represents the
number of people who entered the bank. The probability distribution of X is shown below.
• What is the expected number of people who enters the bank every hour?
x 0 1 2 3 4 5
P(x) 0.00 0.10 0.20 0.40 0.20 0.10
Solutions:
E(X) = ∑[𝑥𝑃(𝑥)]
x P(x) xP(x)
0 0.00 0.00
1 0.10 0.10
2 0.20 0.40
3 0.40 1.20
PRIVATE EDUCATION ASSISTANCE COMMITTEE
4 0.20 0.80
5 0.10 0.50
∑[𝑥𝑃(𝑥)] = 3.00
Or μ = 3.00
Therefore, the average number of people entering the bank every hour during that working day is 3.
Task 3
Find the mean or the expected value of each of the following probability distributions
x 0 1 2 3
P(x) 0.15 0.32 0.37 0.16
x 0 1 2 3 4
P(x) 0.08 0.19 0.39 0.27 0.07
x 0 1 2 3 4 5
P(x) 0.123 0.134 0.211 0.321 0.140 0.071
Task 3
Answer key:
Find the mean or the expected value of each of the following probability distributions
x 0 1 2 3
P(x) 0.15 0.32 0.37 0.16
μ = E(X) = 1.54
x 0 1 2 3 4
P(x) 0.08 0.19 0.39 0.27 0.07
PRIVATE EDUCATION ASSISTANCE COMMITTEE
μ = E(X) = 2.06
x 0 1 2 3 4 5
P(x) 0.123 0.134 0.211 0.321 0.140 0.071
μ = E(X) = 2.434
Illustrative example
• Find the variance.
x 0 1 2
P(x) 0.25 0.50 0.25
Solutions:
Guide Questions:
1. What does it mean of having a variance of 0.50?
2. Are the data properly distributed?
Task 4
Find the variance in each of the following distributions
x 0 1 2 3
P(x) 0.15 0.32 0.37 0.16
x 0 1 2 3 4
P(x) 0.08 0.19 0.39 0.27 0.07
Task 4
Answer Key:
Find the variance in each of the following distributions
x 0 1 2 3
P(x) 0.15 0.32 0.37 0.16
σ2 = ∑[ (𝑥 − 𝜇)2 P(x)]
= 0.8684
≈ 0.87
PRIVATE EDUCATION ASSISTANCE COMMITTEE
x 0 1 2 3 4
P(x) 0.08 0.19 0.39 0.27 0.07
σ2 = ∑[ (𝑥 − 𝜇)2 P(x)]
= 1.0564
≈ 1.06
Illustrative example
Find the standard deviation given the variance below.
Var(X) = σ2 = ∑[ (𝑥 − 𝜇)2 P(x)]
= 1.8475
≈ 1.85
Hence, σ = √1.8475
σ = 1.3592277219
σ ≈ 1.36
Guide question:
1. What does it mean of having a standard deviation of 1.36?
PRIVATE EDUCATION ASSISTANCE COMMITTEE
APPLICATION OF A DISCRETE RANDOM VARIABLE
Illustrative example
▪ The officers of Grade 11 Batch 2022 decided to conduct a lottery for the benefit of the less privileged students of their alma mater. Two
hundred tickets will be sold. One ticket will win Php5,000 prize and the other tickets will win nothing. If you will buy one ticket, what will be
your expected gain?
Solutions:
Given:
▪ 200 tickets will be sold
1
▪ 1 ticket will win php5,000 or = 0.005
200
199
▪ 199 tickets will win nothing or 200 = 0.995
Required:
▪ Expected gain in the lottery
E(X) = ∑[𝑥𝑃(𝑥)]
Guide questions:
1. Do you think this gain is enough for your project?
2. How can you gain more funds using the same lottery? Would you change the ticket prize?
3. What will be the best way to have higher funds?
PRIVATE EDUCATION ASSISTANCE COMMITTEE
Computing the Mean, Variance and Standard Deviation of a Discrete Probability Distribution Example 2 - YouTube
ILLUSTRATING MEAN AND VARIANCE OF DISCRETE RANDOM VARIABLE || SHS STATISTICS AND PROBABILITY Q3 - YouTube
SOLVING PROBLEMS INVOLVING MEAN AND VARIANCE OF PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS || SHS STAT AND PROB Q3 - YouTube
STATISTICS: Mean and Variance of Random Variables in Filipino - YouTube
Synthesis
In this topic, the students were able to understand the probability distribution and mean and variance of a discrete random variable. They also learned how to construct the probability
distribution table. Here, for the students to construct the distribution, there is a need for them to determine first all the possible outcomes of a certain event, with this they can easily
construct the distribution as well as to find the mean and variance of the distribution. They were also able to interpret mean and variance based on the given data and solve problems
involving mean and variance of a discrete random variable. This is for the students to develop their communication and critical thinking skills which are essential in completing their
performance task. The use of technology is also highly encouraged for the students also to develop their technology skills.
Answer key:
Solutions:
Let the random variable X be the number of times a student will ask for additional allowance after receiving his/her weekly allowance.
PRIVATE EDUCATION ASSISTANCE COMMITTEE
x 0 1 2 3 4
P(x) 3 15 24 6 2
50 50 50 50 50
or
x 0 1 2 3 4
P(x) 0.06 0.30 0.48 0.12 0.04
Hence,
σ2 = ∑[ (𝑥 − 𝜇)2 P(x)]
= 0.7716
≈ 0.77
Answer key:
Solutions:
x 1 2 3 4
P(x) 1 2 3 4
10 10 10 10
Or
x 1 2 3 4
P(x) 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40
Therefore, σ2 = 1.00
Hence, the mean, variance, and standard deviation are 3, 1, and 1 respectively.