MMSS-04 Rev.

1 / 24-06-2024
Republic of the Philippines
DEPARTMENT OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical
Services Administration (PAGASA)
Weather Division

TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NR. 4

Typhoon PEPITO (MAN-YI)
Issued at 5:00 PM, 15 November 2024
Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin at 11:00 PM today.

MORE AREAS ARE NOW UNDER WIND SIGNALS AS TYPHOON PEPITO CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY.

Location of Center (4:00 PM)

The center of the eye of Typhoon PEPITO was estimated

based on all available data at 465 km East of Guiuan,
Eastern Samar (11.1°N, 130.0°E).

Intensity

Maximum sustained winds of 150 km/h near the center,

gustiness of up to 185 km/h, and central pressure of 965 hPa

Present Movement

West northwestward at 30 km/h

Extent of Tropical Cyclone Winds
Strong to typhoon-force winds extend outwards up to 440
km from the center
TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST
Center Position Intensity Movement
Date and Time Lat. Lon. MSW dir. and
Location Cat. speed (km/h)
(°N) (°E) (km/h)
12-Hour Forecast
2:00 AM 11.9 127.9 270 km East of Borongan City, Eastern Samar 155 TY WNW 25
16 November 2024
24-Hour Forecast
140 km East Northeast of Catarman, Northern
2:00 PM 13.0 125.8 175 TY WNW 20
Samar
16 November 2024
36-Hour Forecast
Over the coastal waters of Caramoan, Camarines
2:00 AM 14.1 123.8 175 TY WNW 20
Sur
17 November 2024
48-Hour Forecast
2:00 PM 15.3 121.8 Over the coastal waters of Panukulan, Quezon 165 TY WNW 20
17 November 2024
60-Hour Forecast
2:00 AM 17.0 119.1 140 km West Northwest of Bacnotan, La Union 130 TY WNW 30
18 November 2024
72-Hour Forecast
2:00 PM 18.0 117.2 355 km West of Batac, Ilocos Norte (OUTSIDE PAR) 110 STS WNW 20
18 November 2024
96-Hour Forecast
2:00 PM 18.1 113.5 745 km West of Batac, Ilocos Norte (OUTSIDE PAR) 100 STS W 15
19 November 2024
120-Hour Forecast
2:00 PM 17.0 111.1 990 km West of Northern Luzon (OUTSIDE PAR) 85 TS WSW 10
20 November 2024

Page 1 of 3

Prepared by: RPG Checked by: CFP

“tracking the sky…helping the country.”

Weather and Flood Forecasting Center Tel. No.: (+632) 8284-0800 ext. 4800
Senator Miriam P. Defensor-Santiago Avenue Website: https://bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph
Brgy. Central, Quezon City 1100, Philippines
 MMSS-04 Rev.1 / 24-06-2024
Republic of the Philippines
DEPARTMENT OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical
Services Administration (PAGASA)
Weather Division

TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NR. 4

Typhoon PEPITO (MAN-YI)
Issued at 5:00 PM, 15 November 2024
Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin at 11:00 PM today.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNALS (TCWS) IN EFFECT

TCWS No. Luzon Visayas Mindanao

The eastern portion of Northern Samar

(Mapanas, Gamay, Palapag, Lapinig, Silvino
Lobos, Laoang, Catubig, Las Navas, Pambujan,
Mondragon, San Roque, Catarman, Lope de
2 -
Vega), the northern portion of Eastern Samar
(Arteche, Oras, San Policarpo, Dolores, Jipapad,
-

Wind threat:
Maslog, Can-Avid), and the northeastern portion
Gale-force of Samar (San Jose de Buan, Matuguinao)
winds
Warning lead time: 24 hours
Range of wind speeds: 62 to 88 km/h (Beaufort 8 to 9)
Potential impacts of winds: Minor to moderate threat to life and property

Aurora, Quezon, the eastern portion of Laguna

(Santa Maria, Famy, Siniloan, Pangil, Mabitac,
Pakil, Paete, Kalayaan, Lumban, Cavinti,
The rest of Northern Samar, the rest of Eastern
1 Luisiana, Pagsanjan, Santa Cruz, Magdalena,
Majayjay, Liliw, Nagcarlan, San Pablo City, Rizal),
Marinduque, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur,
Samar, the rest of Samar, and Biliran
-

Wind threat:
Strong Catanduanes, Albay, Sorsogon, and Masbate
winds
Warning lead time: 36 hours
Range of wind speeds: 39 to 61 km/h (Beaufort 6 to 7)
Potential impacts of winds: Minimal to minor threat to life and property

OTHER HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS

Heavy Rainfall Outlook

Refer to Weather Advisory No. 38 issued at 5PM today for three-day heavy rainfall outlook associated with “PEPITO”

Severe Winds

The wind signals warn the public of the general wind threat over an area due to the tropical cyclone. Local winds may be slightly
stronger/enhanced in coastal and upland/mountainous areas exposed to winds. Winds are less strong in areas sheltered from the
prevailing wind direction.

 Minor to moderate impacts from strong winds are possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No. 2.
 Minimal to minor impacts from strong winds are possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No. 1.

The highest Wind Signal which may be hoisted during the occurrence of PEPITO is Wind Signal No. 5.

Coastal Inundation

There is a moderate to high risk of life-threatening storm surge with peak heights reaching 3.0 m above mean sea level in the next
48 hours over the low-lying or exposed coastal localities of Aurora, Quezon, southeastern Batangas, northwestern Romblon,
Marinduque, Bicol Region, Northern Samar, Eastern Samar, Samar, and Biliran. Refer to Storm Surge Warning No. 3 issued at 2:00
PM today for the details.

Page 2 of 3

Prepared by: RPG Checked by: CFP

“tracking the sky…helping the country.”

Weather and Flood Forecasting Center Tel. No.: (+632) 8284-0800 ext. 4800
Senator Miriam P. Defensor-Santiago Avenue Website: https://bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph
Brgy. Central, Quezon City 1100, Philippines
 MMSS-04 Rev.1 / 24-06-2024
Republic of the Philippines
DEPARTMENT OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical
Services Administration (PAGASA)
Weather Division

TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NR. 4

Typhoon PEPITO (MAN-YI)
Issued at 5:00 PM, 15 November 2024
Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin at 11:00 PM today.

HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS

A Gale Warning is hoisted over the eastern seaboard of Visayas. Refer to Gale Warning No. 8 issued at 5:00 PM today for the details.

24-Hour Sea Condition Outlook

Up to very rough or high seas over the following coastal waters:

 Up to 8.0 m: The eastern seaboard of Catanduanes, Albay, Sorsogon, and Eastern Samar; the northern and eastern seaboards of
Northern Samar.
 Up to 5.5 m: The remaining seaboard of Catanduanes; the eastern seaboard of Camarines Sur.
 Up to 4.5 m: The northern seaboard of Camarines Sur.
 Sea travel is risky for all types or tonnage of vessels. All mariners must remain in port or, if underway, seek shelter or safe
harbor as soon as possible until winds and waves subside.

Up to rough seas over the following coastal waters:

 Up to 4.0 m: The eastern seaboard of Dinagat Islands
 Up to 3.5 m: The seaboard of Surigao del Sur and Siargao Islands
 Up to 3.0 m: The seaboards of Batanes, Isabela, Aurora, and northern mainland Quezon; the northern and eastern seaboards of Polillo
Islands; the eastern seaboard of mainland Cagayan and Davao Oriental; the remaining seaboard of Northern Samar.
 Mariners of small seacrafts, including all types of motorbancas, are advised not to venture out to sea under these conditions,
especially if inexperienced or operating ill-equipped vessels.

Up to moderate seas over the following coastal waters:

 Up to 2.5 m: The remaining seaboard of Eastern Samar and Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, the northern seaboard of Dinagat
Islands; the eastern seaboard of Leyte; the southern seaboard of Samar.
 Up to 2.0 m: The remaining seaboards of Camarines Sur, Albay, Sorsogon, Dinagat Islands, and Surigao del Norte including the rest of
Siargao Islands; the northern seaboard of Ilocos Norte, Masbate including Ticao and Burias Islands, and Leyte; the seaboards of
Samar and Biliran; the eastern seaboard of Southern Leyte and Quezon including the rest of Polillo Islands.
 Mariners of motorbancas and similarly-sized vessels are advised to take precautionary measures while venturing out to sea and,
if possible, avoid navigation under these conditions.

TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK

 PEPITO is forecast to move generally west northwestward within the next five days. On the track forecast, PEPITO is more likely to
make landfall in the vicinity of Catanduanes tomorrow (16 November) evening or on Sunday (17 November) early morning.
However, considering the limits of the forecast confidence cone, a landfall scenario over the eastern coast of Camarines Sur, Albay,
or Sorsogon during the same time frame, over the eastern coast of Northern Samar tomorrow afternoon or evening, or along the
eastern coast of Quezon or Aurora on Sunday afternoon or evening remains not ruled out.
 Regardless of the landfall point, PEPITO will more likely move generally west northwestward over the weekend and pass over or
near the landmass of Bicol Region, Quezon, Central Luzon provinces, and Pangasinan before emerging over the West Philippine
Sea on Sunday evening or Monday (18 November) morning.
 It must be emphasized that heavy rainfall, severe winds, and storm surge may still be experienced in localities outside the
landfall point and the forecast confidence cone. Refer to “Other Hazards affecting Land Areas” for more details.
Furthermore, the track may still shift within the limit of the forecast confidence cone.
 PEPITO will continue to rapidly intensify today through tomorrow and may reach super typhoon category prior to its landfall
tomorrow evening or on Sunday early morning. Although a slight weakening may occur after its initial passage over land, much of
the weakening will occur on Sunday as PEPITO passes over landmass of Central Luzon. Nevertheless, it will traverse the country
as a typhoon and will likely be downgraded into a severe tropical storm once it is over the West Philippine Sea on Monday.

Considering these developments, the public and disaster risk reduction and management offices concerned are advised to take all
necessary measures to protect life and property. Persons living in areas identified to be highly or very highly susceptible to these
hazards are advised to follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For heavy rainfall warnings,
thunderstorm/rainfall advisories, and other severe weather information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your local PAGASA Regional Services Division.

The next tropical cyclone bulletin will be issued at 11:00 PM today.

DOST-PAGASA
Page 3 of 3

Prepared by: RPG Checked by: CFP

“tracking the sky…helping the country.”

Weather and Flood Forecasting Center Tel. No.: (+632) 8284-0800 ext. 4800
Senator Miriam P. Defensor-Santiago Avenue Website: https://bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph
Brgy. Central, Quezon City 1100, Philippines