INU Stat Dept Statistics for Land Administration Chapter - 2

2. Elementary probability
2.1 Introduction
✓ Probability (p): Is a numerical description of chance occurrence of a given phenomenon under a
certain condition. It is used to measure the degree of certainty.
2.2 Definition of some probability terms
Random (Probability) Experiment: It is an experiment that can be repeated any number of times under
similar conditions and it is possible to enumerate the total number of outcomes without predicting an
individual outcome.
✓ Example 1: If a fair die is rolled once it is possible to list all the possible outcomes i.e.
1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 but it is not possible to predict which outcome will occur.
✓ Example 2: Tossing a coin two times and observing the no of heads appearing on the top.
An outcome: is the result of a single trial of a random experiment.
✓ Example: when a coin is tossed once, there are two possible outcomes i.e. head (H) & tail (T).
Sample space (S): is a set of all possible outcomes of a random experiment.
▪ Example 1: Rolling a die: 𝑆 = {1, 2, 3, … ,6},
▪ Example 2: Tossing a coin once: 𝑆 = {𝐻, 𝑇}.
▪ Example 3: Tossing a coin twice: 𝑆 = {𝐻𝐻, 𝐻𝑇, 𝑇𝐻, 𝑇𝑇}.
Ingeneral, 𝑆 = (𝒏𝒐 𝒐𝒇 𝒐𝒖𝒕𝒄𝒐𝒎𝒆)𝒏 , 𝑤ℎ𝑒𝑟𝑒 𝑛 𝑖𝑠 number of trials.
Event : Is a subset of sample space. It is a statement of one or more outcomes of a random experiment.
They are denoted by capital letters.
✓ Example: Getting an odd numbers in rolling a die.
Solution: Let 𝐴 − is an event of getting odd numbers. Then 𝐴 = {1, 3, 5}.
Complement of an event: The complement of an event A means non- occurrence of A and is denoted
by 𝐴′ which contains those points of the sample space which don’t belong to A.
Example: a) Find the complement of an event of getting odd numbers in rolling a die.
b) If tossing two coins and getting all heads.
Solution: a) Let 𝐴 − is an event of getting odd numbers in rolling a die.
→≫ 𝐴 = {1, 3, 5} ; 𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑛 𝐴′ = {2,4,6}, 𝑵𝒐𝒕𝒆: 𝐴 ∪ 𝐴′ = 𝑆.
b) Let 𝐵 − be an event of getting all heads in tossing two coins.
𝐵 = {𝐻𝐻} ; 𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑛 𝐵 ′ = {𝐻𝑇, 𝑇𝐻, 𝑇𝑇}, 𝑁𝑜𝑡𝑒: 𝐵 ∪ 𝐵 ′ = 𝑆.
Mutually exclusive events: Two events which cannot happen at the same time.
Equally likely events: Events that have the same probability of occurring.
✓ Example: when a single die is rolled, each outcome has the same probability of occurrence 1/6.

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 INU Stat Dept Statistics for Land Administration Chapter - 2
2.3 Counting Rules (Techniques)
✓ In order to calculate probabilities, we have to know:
▪ The number of elements in the event 𝑖. 𝑒. 𝑛(𝐴).
▪ The number of elements in the sample space 𝑖. 𝑒. 𝑛(𝑆)..
➢ That is, in order to judge what is probable, we have to know what is possible.
▪ In order to determine the number of outcomes, one can use several rules of counting.
▪ The addition rule ▪ The permutation rule
▪ The multiplication rule ▪ The combination rule
✓ To list the outcomes of the sequence of events, a useful device called tree diagram is used.

1. Addition Principle (Rule)

❖ If a task can be accomplished by "k distinct" procedures where the ith procedures has 𝒏𝒊 alternatives ,
then the total number of ways of accomplishing the task is:
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑤𝑎𝑦𝑠 = 𝒏𝟏 + 𝒏𝟐 + ⋯ + 𝒏𝒌 .
Example 1: A student goes to the nearest snack (Cafe) to have a breakfast. He can take tea, coffee, or
milk with bread, cake or sandwich. How many possibilities does he have?
Solution: Bread Bread Bread
Tea Cake or Coffee Cake or Milk Cake
Sandwich Sandwich Sandwich
𝑘 = 3, 𝑛1 = 3, 𝑛2 = 3, 𝑛3 = 3 ; 𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑤𝑎𝑦𝑠 = 𝑛1 + 𝑛2 + 𝑛3 = 3 + 3 + 3 = 9.
Example 2: There are two transportation means from city A to city B, either using bus transportation or train
transportation. There are 3 buses and 2 trains. How many ways of transportation is there from city A to city B?
Solution: A person can take any of 5 means of transportation from city A to B.
𝑘 = 2, 𝑛1 = 3, 𝑛2 = 2 ; 𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑤𝑎𝑦𝑠 = 𝑛1 + 𝑛2 = 3 + 2 = 5.
Example 3: Suppose one wants to purchase a certain commodity and this commodity is on sale in 5
government owned shops, 3 public shops and 4 private shops. How many alternatives are there for the person
to purchase this commodity?
Solution: 𝑘 = 3, 𝑛1 = 5, 𝑛2 = 3, 𝑛3 = 4 ; 𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑤𝑎𝑦𝑠 = 𝑛1 + 𝑛2 + 𝑛3 = 5 + 3 + 4 = 12.

2. Multiplication Principle (Rule)

If a choice consists of k steps of which the first can be made in 𝒏𝟏 ways, and the second can be made in
𝒏𝟐 ways , … , and the kth can be made in 𝒏𝐤 ways, then the whole choice can be made in:
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑤𝑎𝑦𝑠 = 𝒏𝟏 ∗ 𝒏𝟐 ∗ … ∗ 𝒏𝒌 .
Note: In this case and means to multiply.
Example1: A paint manufacturer wishes to manufacture several different paints. The categories
include three types of colors (i.e. red, white, blue), two types of type (i.e. latex and oil) and two types
of use (i.e. outdoor & indoor). How many different kinds of paints can be made if a person can select
one color, one type and one use?

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Latex Outdour
Solution: Indour
Oil Outdour
Red Indour
Latex Outdour
Indour
Person White Oil Outdour 12 different ways.
Indour
Blue Latex Outdour
Indour
Oil Outdour
Indour
𝑘 = 3, 𝑛1 = 3, 𝑛2 = 2, 𝑛3 = 2 ; 𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑤𝑎𝑦𝑠 = 𝑛1 ∗ 𝑛2 ∗ 𝑛3 = 3 ∗ 2 ∗ 2 = 12 differnt ways.

Example 2: The digits 0, 1, 2, 3 𝑎𝑛𝑑 4 are to be used in a 4 − 𝑑𝑖𝑔𝑖𝑡 𝐼𝐷 𝑐𝑎𝑟𝑑. How many different
cards are possible if
(a) Repetitions are permitted? b) Repetitions are not permitted?
Solution: 1st digit 2nd digit 3rd digit 4th digit

a. →≫ 5 ∗ 5 ∗ 5 ∗ 5 = 625 differnt cards are posible.

b. →≫ 5 ∗ 4 ∗ 3 ∗ 2 = 120 differnt cards are posible.

Example 3: (a) an urn contains 3 balls whose colors are red (R), black (B) and white (W). A ball is
selected, its color is noted, and it is replaced, then a 2nd ball is selected, and its color is noted. How
many color schemes are possible?
(b) If the 1st ball is not replaced. How many different outcomes are there?
R B
a. R B b. R W
W R
Urn R Urn B W 6 ways.
B B 9 color schemes. R
W W B
R
W B
W
a). ≫ 3 ∗ 3 = 9 color schems are possible. b). ≫ 3 ∗ 2 = 6 differnt color schems are possible.
3. Permutations
✓ Definition: Permutation is an arrangement of "n distinct" objects in a specific order.
Permutation Rules:
1. The arrangement of n objects in a specified order using r objects at a time is called the permutation of n
objects taken r objects at a time. It is written as 𝒏𝑷𝒓 .
𝑛!
𝑛𝑃𝑟 = ; 𝑤ℎ𝑒𝑟𝑒 𝑟 ≤ 𝑛.
( 𝑛 − 𝑟) !

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2. The number of permutations of n distinct objects taken all together is 𝒏! or 𝑛𝑃𝑛 .

𝒏! = 𝒏 ∗ (𝒏 − 𝟏) ∗ (𝒏 − 𝟐) ∗, … , 𝟑 ∗ 𝟐 ∗ 𝟏. 𝑁𝑜𝑡𝑒: 1! = 1 𝑎𝑛𝑑 0! = 1.
3. The number of permutations of n objects in which 𝒌𝟏 are alike (the same), 𝒌𝟐 are alike, ... etc, then the
total number of arrangements is
𝒏!
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑎𝑟𝑟𝑎𝑛𝑔𝑒𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑠 = ; 𝑤ℎ𝑒𝑟𝑒: 𝑘1 + 𝑘2 + 𝑘3 + ⋯ + 𝑘𝑝 = 𝑛.
𝒌𝟏 ! ∗ 𝒌𝟐 ∗ 𝒌𝟑 ∗ … ∗ 𝒌𝒑
Example 1: In how many ways can the letters 𝐴, 𝐵 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐶 be arranged taken two at a time.
3! 3×2×1
𝑛 = 3, 𝑟 = 2; =≫ 𝑛𝑃𝑟 = 3𝑃2 = (3−2)! = = 6. i. e. AB, AC, BA, BC, CA, CB.
1!

Example 2: a) In how many ways can 3 students be arranged in rows of 3 chairs?

b) In how many ways can a student arrange his/her 4 different books on a shelf?
Solution: a) ≫ 𝑛 = 3, 𝑛! = 3! = 3 ∗ 2 ∗ 1 = 6 𝑤𝑎𝑦𝑠.
b) ≫ 𝑛 = 4, 𝑛! = 4! = 4 ∗ 3 ∗ 2 ∗ 1 = 12 𝑤𝑎𝑦𝑠.
Example 3: If 2 different mathematics books, 3 different statistics books and 2 different Chemistry books are
to be arranged in a shelf, then how many different arrangements are possible if:
a. The books in each particular subject must "stand all together".
b. Only the Mathematics books must stand all together.
c. There is no restriction.
Solution: a)
2! 3! 2! 3! ; 𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑤𝑎𝑦𝑠 = 2! 𝑥3! 𝑥2! 𝑥3!.
b)
2! 6! ; 𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑤𝑎𝑦𝑠 = 2! 𝑥6!.
c) ; 𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑤𝑎𝑦𝑠 = 7!.
Example 4: How many different permutations of n objects can be made from the letters in the word
MISSISSIPPI.
Solution: 𝑇ℎ𝑒 𝑛𝑜 𝑜𝑓 𝑙𝑒𝑡𝑡𝑒𝑟𝑠 (𝑛) = 11; 𝑜𝑓 𝑤ℎ𝑖𝑐ℎ 𝑀 = 1, 𝐼 = 4, 𝑆 = 4, & 𝑃 = 2.
11!
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑎𝑟𝑟𝑎𝑛𝑔𝑒𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑠 = = 34,650 𝑑𝑖𝑓𝑓𝑒𝑟𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑎𝑟𝑟𝑎𝑛𝑔𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑠 𝑎𝑟𝑒 𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑠𝑖𝑏𝑙𝑒.
1! 4! 4! 2!
Ex: If the permutation of the word WHITE is selected at random, how many of the permutations
a. Begins with a consonant? b. Ends with a vowel? c. Has a consonant and vowels alternating?
4. COMBINATIONS
▪ Combination is a selection of n distinct objects without regard to order.
✓ It is used when the order of arrangement is not important, as in the selection process.
▪ The number of combinations of r objects selected from n objects is denoted by 𝒏𝑪𝒓 𝑜𝑟 (𝒏𝒓).
𝑛!
→ 𝑤𝑖𝑡ℎ𝑜𝑢𝑡 𝑟𝑒𝑝𝑙𝑎𝑐𝑒𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡.
𝑛𝐶𝑟 = { 𝑟! (𝑛 − 𝑟)!
𝑛𝑟 → 𝑤𝑖𝑡ℎ 𝑟𝑒𝑝𝑙𝑎𝑐𝑒𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡.
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Example 1: Given the letters 𝐴, 𝐵, 𝐶 & 𝐷. List the number of permutations & combinations for selecting two
letters at a time.
Solution:
▪ 𝑃𝑒𝑟𝑚𝑢𝑡𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛: 𝑛𝑃𝑟 = 4𝑃2 = 12; 𝑖. 𝑒. 𝐴𝐵, 𝐴𝐶, 𝐴𝐷, 𝐵𝐴, 𝐵𝐶, 𝐵𝐷, 𝐶𝐴, 𝐶𝐵, 𝐶𝐷, 𝐷𝐴, 𝐷𝐵, 𝐷𝐶.
▪ 𝐶𝑜𝑚𝑏𝑖𝑛𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛: 𝑛𝐶𝑟 = 4𝐶2 = 6; 𝑖. 𝑒. 𝐴𝐵, 𝐴𝐶, 𝐴𝐷, 𝐵𝐶, 𝐵𝐷, 𝐶𝐷.
✓ Note that in permutation AB is different from BA. But in combination AB is the same as BA.
Example 2: Out of 30 male students and 20 female students in Statistics department, a
𝒄𝒆𝒓𝒕𝒂𝒊𝒏 𝒄𝒐𝒎𝒎𝒊𝒕𝒕𝒆𝒆 consists of 3 𝑚𝑎𝑙𝑒 students and 2 𝑓𝑒𝑚𝑎𝑙𝑒 students is to be formed. In how many
ways can this be done if:
a) any male students and any female students can be included (all students are eligible).
b) One particular female must be a member.
c) Two particular male students cannot be member for some reasons.
Solution: a) 30𝐶3 𝑥 20𝐶2 = b) 30𝐶3 𝑥 19𝐶1 = c) 28𝐶3 𝑥 20𝐶2 =
Example 3: A committee of 5 people must be selected from 5 men and 8 women. In how many ways can
selection be done if there are at least 3 women on the committee?
Solution: The committee may consists of 3 women and 2 men or 4 women and 1 men or 5 women and 0 men.
∴ 𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑤𝑎𝑦𝑠 = 8𝐶3 𝑥 5𝐶2 + 8𝐶4 𝑥 5𝐶1 + 8𝐶5 𝑥 5𝐶0 = 966 𝑤𝑎𝑦𝑠.
2.4 Basic approaches to probability
✓ There are four different conceptual approaches to the study of probability theory. These are:
1. The Classical Approach. 3. The Axiomatic Approach.
2. The Frequents (Empirical) Approach. 4. The Subjective Approach.
1. The Classical Approach
✓ This approach is used when:
• All outcomes are equally likely.
• Total number of outcome is finite, say n.
Definition: If a random experiment with "n" equally likely outcomes is conducted and out of these
"k" outcomes are favorable to an event A, then the probability that an event A occur denoted 𝑏𝑦 𝑃(𝐴)
is defined as:
𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 𝑓𝑎𝑣𝑜𝑟𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑡𝑜 𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝐴 𝑛(𝐴) 𝑘
𝑃(𝐴) = = = .
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 𝑛(𝑆) 𝑛
Example 1: When a single die is rolled, then what is the probability of getting an odd numbers?
Solution: let 𝐴 − be an event that getting an odd numbers in rolling a die. Then
𝐴 = {1, 2, 3} 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑆𝑎𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑒 𝑠𝑝𝑎𝑐𝑒 (𝑆) = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}.
𝑛(𝐴) 3 1
𝑃(𝐴) = = = .
𝑛(𝑆) 6 2

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Example 2: A box of 80 candles consists of 30 defective and 50 non defective candles. If 10 of these
candles are selected at random without replacement, what is the probability that:
a) All will be defective? b. 6 will be non defective? c. All will be non defective?
Solution: 𝑑𝑒𝑓𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑒 = 30, 𝑛𝑜𝑛 𝑑𝑒𝑓𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑒 = 50, 𝑟 = 10; 𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑠𝑒𝑙𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 = 80𝐶10 𝑜𝑟 (80
10
) = 𝑛(𝑆) = 𝑛.

a). Let 𝐴 − be the event that all will be defective.

✓ 𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑤𝑎𝑦 𝑖𝑛 𝑤ℎ𝑖𝑐ℎ 𝐴 𝑤𝑖𝑙𝑙 𝑜𝑐𝑐𝑢𝑟 = 𝑛(𝐴) = (30
10
)(50
0
) = 𝑘. 𝑇ℎ𝑒𝑛
30 50
𝑛(𝐴) (10) 𝑥 ( 0 )
𝑃(𝐴) = = = 0.00001825.
𝑛(𝑆) (80
10
)
b). Let 𝐴 − be the event that 6 will be non defective.
✓ 𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑤𝑎𝑦 𝑖𝑛 𝑤ℎ𝑖𝑐ℎ 𝐴 𝑤𝑖𝑙𝑙 𝑜𝑐𝑐𝑢𝑟 = 𝑛(𝐴) = (30
4
)(50
6
) = 𝑘. 𝑇ℎ𝑒𝑛
30 50
𝑛(𝐴) ( 4 ) 𝑥 ( 6 )
𝑃(𝐴) = = = 0.265.
𝑛(𝑆) (80
10
)
c). Let 𝐴 − be the event that all will be non defective.
✓ 𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑤𝑎𝑦 𝑖𝑛 𝑤ℎ𝑖𝑐ℎ 𝐴 𝑤𝑖𝑙𝑙 𝑜𝑐𝑐𝑢𝑟 = 𝑛(𝐴) = (30
0
)(50
10
) = 𝑘. 𝑇ℎ𝑒𝑛
30 50
𝑛(𝐴) ( 0 ) 𝑥 (10)
𝑃(𝐴) = = = 0.00624.
𝑛(𝑆) (80
10
)

Exercise: If 3 books are picked at random from a shelf containing 5 novels, 3 books of poems, and a
dictionary, then what is the probability that
a. The dictionary is selected? b. 2 novels and 1 book of poems are selected?
2. The Frequents Approach (Empirical Probability):

✓ This is based on the relative frequencies of outcomes belonging to an event.

Definition: The probability of an event A is the proportion of outcomes favorable to A in the long
run when the experiment is repeated under the same condition.
𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑒𝑠 𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝐴 ℎ𝑎𝑠 𝑜𝑐𝑐𝑢𝑟𝑒𝑑 𝑘
𝑃(𝐴) = = .
𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑜𝑏𝑠𝑒𝑟𝑣𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑠 𝑛
❖ In a given frequency distribution, the probability of an event A being in a given class is:
𝑓𝑟𝑒𝑞𝑢𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑦 𝑜𝑓 𝑎 𝑐𝑙𝑎𝑠𝑠 𝑓
𝑃(𝐴) = = .
𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑓𝑟𝑒𝑞𝑢𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑦 𝑖𝑛 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑑𝑖𝑠𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑏𝑢𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑛
Example: If records show that 60 out of 100,000 bulbs produced are defective. What is the probability
of a newly produced bulb to be defective?
Solution: Let A - be the event that the newly produced bulb is defective.
𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑒𝑠 𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝐴 ℎ𝑎𝑠 𝑜𝑐𝑐𝑢𝑟𝑒𝑑 𝑘 60
𝑃(𝐴) = = = = 0.0006.
𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑜𝑏𝑠𝑒𝑟𝑣𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑠 𝑛 100,000

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 INU Stat Dept Statistics for Land Administration Chapter - 2
Example 2: In a sample of 50 people, 22 had type "A", 5 had type "B", 2 had type "AB" and 21 had
type "O" blood. Find the probability that a person has blood type "O"?
Solution: Let 𝐴 − be the event that a person has blood type "O". Then
𝑓𝑟𝑒𝑞𝑢𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑦 𝑜𝑓 𝑎 𝑐𝑙𝑎𝑠𝑠 𝑓 21
𝑃(𝐴) = = = .
𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑓𝑟𝑒𝑞𝑢𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑦 𝑖𝑛 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑑𝑖𝑠𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑏𝑢𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑛 50
3. Axiomatic Approach
Let E be a random experiment and S be a sample space associated with E. With each event A areal
number called the 𝑃(𝐴) satisfies the following properties called axioms of probability.
1. 0 ≤ 𝑃(𝐴) ≤ 1. 2. 𝑃(𝑆) = 1, 𝑆 𝑖𝑠 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑠𝑢𝑟𝑒 𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡.
3. 𝑃(𝜙) = 0, 𝜙 𝑖𝑠 𝑖𝑚𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑠𝑖𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡. 4. 𝑃(𝐴′ ) = 1 − 𝑃(𝐴).
5. 𝑃(𝐴𝑈𝐴′ ) = 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐴′ ) = 𝑃(𝑆) = 1.
Remark: The Venn-diagrams can be used to solve probability problems.

S A' S
S
A B
A B A

AUBA

A∪B A∩B

2.5 The addition Rules for Probability

1. If two events A and B are mutually exclusive, then the probability that A or B will occur is
𝑃(𝐴 𝑜𝑟 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵).
2. If two events A and B are not mutually exclusive, then the probability that A or B will occur is
𝑃(𝐴 𝑜𝑟 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵) − 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵).
Example 1: If a single card is drawn from an ordinary deck and its number is noted, then find the probability
that:
a) It is an ace or a diamond. b) It is an ace or a black. c) It is an ace or a Jack.
Solution: Let ; 𝐴 − be the event that an ace will be selected. →≫ 𝑃(𝐴) = 4/52.
𝐵 − be the event that a diamond will be selected. →≫ 𝑃(𝐵) = 13/52.
𝐶 − be the event that a black will be selected. →≫ 𝑃(𝐶) = 26/52.
𝐷 − be the event that a jack will be selected. →≫ 𝑃(𝐷) = 4/52.
4 13 1 16 4
a) 𝑃(𝐴 𝑜𝑟 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵) − 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 52 + 52 − 52 = 52 = 13.
4 26 2 28
b) 𝑃(𝐴 𝑜𝑟 𝐶) = 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐶) = 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐶) − 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐶) = 52 + 52 − 52 = 52.
4 4 8
c) 𝑃(𝐴 𝑜𝑟 𝐷) = 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐷) = 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐷) − 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐷) = 52 + 52 − 0 = 52.

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 INU Stat Dept Statistics for Land Administration Chapter - 2
2.6. Conditional Probability and Independence
2.1. The Multiplication Rules (Theorems)
The multiplication rules can be used to find the probability of two or more events that occur in sequence.
Independent events: Two events A and B are independent if the occurrence of "A" does not affect the
probability of "B" occurring.
Dependent events: Two events are dependent if the first event affects the outcome or occurrence of the
second event in a way the probability is changed.
2.1.1 The Multiplication Rules for Probability
1. If two events A and B are independent, then the probability of both A and B will occur is
𝑃(𝐴 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) 𝑥 𝑃(𝐵).
2. If two events A and B are dependent, then the probability of both A and B will occur is
𝑃(𝐴 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) 𝑥 𝑃(𝐵/𝐴) = 𝑃(𝐵) 𝑥 𝑃(𝐴/𝐵).
Example 1: A coin is flipped and a die is rolled. Find the probability of getting a head on the coin and a 4 on
the die.
Solution: These two events are independent since the outcome of the first event (tossing a coin) does not
affect the probability outcome of the second event (rolling a die).
1 1 1
𝑃(ℎ𝑒𝑎𝑑 𝑎𝑛𝑑 4) = 𝑃(ℎ𝑒𝑎𝑑) 𝑥 𝑃(4) = 𝑥 = .
2 6 12
Example 2: An urn contains 3 red balls, 2 blue balls and 5 white balls. A ball is selected and its color
noted.Then it is replaced. A second ball is selected and its color noted. Find the probability of :
a) Selecting two blue balls.
b) Selecting a blue ball and then a white ball.
c) Selecting a red ball and then a blue ball.
2 2 4 1
Solution: a) 𝑃(𝑏𝑙𝑢𝑒 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑏𝑙𝑢𝑒) = 𝑃(𝑏𝑙𝑢𝑒 ∩ 𝑏𝑙𝑢𝑒) = 𝑃(𝑏𝑙𝑢𝑒) 𝑥 𝑃(𝑏𝑙𝑢𝑒) = 10 𝑥 10 = 100 = 25.
2 5 10 1
b) 𝑃(𝑏𝑙𝑢𝑒 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑤ℎ𝑖𝑡𝑒) = 𝑃(𝑏𝑙𝑢𝑒 ∩ 𝑤ℎ𝑖𝑡𝑒) = 𝑃(𝑏𝑙𝑢𝑒) 𝑥 𝑃(𝑤ℎ𝑖𝑡𝑒) = 10 𝑥 10 = 100 = 10.
3 2 6 3
c) 𝑃(𝑟𝑒𝑑 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑏𝑙𝑢𝑒) = 𝑃(𝑟𝑒𝑑 ∩ 𝑏𝑙𝑢𝑒) = 𝑃(𝑟𝑒𝑑) 𝑥 𝑃(𝑏𝑙𝑢𝑒) = 10 𝑥 10 = 100 = 50.

Example 3: A card is drawn from an ordinary deck and its number noted. Then it is not replaced. A second
card is drawn and its number noted, then find the probability of:
a) Getting two Jacks (J). b) Getting an ace ( A) and a king (K) in order.
c) Getting a flower and a spade. d) Getting a red and a black in order.
4 3 12
Solution: a) 𝑃(𝐽𝑎𝑐𝑘 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐽𝑎𝑐𝑘) = 𝑃(𝐽𝑎𝑐𝑘 ∩ 𝐽𝑎𝑐𝑘) = 𝑃(𝐽𝑎𝑐𝑘) 𝑥 𝑃(𝐽𝑎𝑐𝑘/𝐽𝑎𝑐𝑘) = 52 𝑥 51 = 2802 .
4 4 16
b) 𝑃(𝑎𝑐𝑒 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑘𝑖𝑛𝑔) = 𝑝(𝑎𝑐𝑒 ∩ 𝑘𝑖𝑛𝑔) = 𝑃(𝑎𝑐𝑒) 𝑥 𝑃(𝐾𝑖𝑛𝑔/𝐴𝑐𝑒) = 52 𝑥 51 = 2802.
13 13 169
c. 𝑃(𝑓𝑙𝑜𝑤𝑒𝑟 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑠𝑝𝑎𝑑𝑒) = 𝑃(𝑓𝑙𝑜𝑤𝑒𝑟 ∩ 𝑠𝑝𝑎𝑑𝑒) = 𝑃(𝑓𝑙𝑜𝑤𝑒𝑟) 𝑥 𝑃(𝑆𝑝𝑎𝑑𝑒/𝑓𝑙𝑜𝑤𝑒𝑟) = 52 𝑥 51 = 2802.
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 INU Stat Dept Statistics for Land Administration Chapter - 2
26 26 676
d) 𝑃(𝑟𝑒𝑑 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑏𝑙𝑎𝑐𝑘) = 𝑃(𝑟𝑒𝑑 ∩ 𝑏𝑙𝑎𝑐𝑘) = 𝑃(𝑟𝑒𝑑) 𝑥 𝑃(𝑏𝑙𝑎𝑐𝑘/𝑟𝑒𝑑) = 52 𝑥 51 = 2802 .

Exercise : If the probabilities are 0.75, 0.7 and 0.525 that a student A, B, or both can solve the problems in a
text book respectively. What is the probability that:
a) Student A can only solve the problem selected at random from the book?
b) Student B can only solve the problem selected at random from the book?
Solution:
a) A B 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵′ b) A𝐴′ ∩BB 𝑨′ ∩ 𝑩

a) 𝑷(𝑨 ∩ 𝑩′ ) = 𝑷(𝑨) − 𝒑(𝑨 ∩ 𝑩) = 𝟎. 𝟕𝟓 − 𝟎. 𝟓𝟐𝟓 = 𝟎. 𝟐𝟐𝟓. ;

𝐛) 𝑷(𝑨′ ∩ 𝑩) = 𝑷(𝑩) − 𝒑(𝑨 ∩ 𝑩) = 𝟎. 𝟕 − 𝟎. 𝟓𝟐𝟓 = 𝟎. 𝟏𝟕𝟓.
2.2. Conditional Probability
The conditional probability of an event is a probability obtained with the additional information that
some other event has already occurred.
▪ The conditional probability of event B occurring, given that event A has already occurred, can be
found by:
𝑃(𝐴∩𝐵)
✓ 𝑃(𝐵/𝐴) = , 𝑖𝑓 𝑃(𝐴) ≠ 0.
𝑃(𝐴)

▪ The conditional probability of event A occurring, given that event B has already occurred, can be
found by:
𝑃(𝐴∩𝐵)
✓ 𝑃(𝐴/𝐵) = , 𝑖𝑓 𝑃(𝐵) ≠ 0.
𝑃(𝐵)

∴ 𝑷(𝑨 ∩ 𝑩) = 𝑷(𝑨) 𝒙 𝑷(𝑩/𝑨) = 𝑷(𝑩) 𝒙 𝑷(𝑨/𝑩).

𝑵𝒐𝒕𝒆: 𝐼𝑓 𝐴 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵 𝑎𝑟𝑒 𝑖𝑛𝑑𝑒𝑝𝑒𝑛𝑑𝑒𝑛𝑡, 𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑛 𝑃(𝐴/𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑃(𝐵/𝐴) = 𝑃(𝐵).
Example: A box contains black chips and white chips. A person selects two chips without replacement. If the
probability of selecting a black chip and a white chip is 15/56 , and the probability of selecting a black chip
on the first draw is 3/8 , , find the probability of selecting the white chip on the second draw, given that the
first chip selected was a black chip.
𝑺𝒐𝒍𝒖𝒕𝒊𝒐𝒏: 𝐿𝑒𝑡 ; 𝐵 = 𝑠𝑒𝑙𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑎 𝑏𝑙𝑎𝑐𝑘 𝑐ℎ𝑖𝑝 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑊 = 𝑠𝑒𝑙𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑎 𝑤ℎ𝑖𝑡𝑒 𝑐ℎ𝑖𝑝. 𝑇ℎ𝑒𝑛
𝑃(𝐵 ∩ 𝑊) 15/56 15 8 5
𝑃(𝑊/𝐵) = = = 𝑥 = .
𝑃(𝐵) 3/8 56 3 7
Exercise: Let A and B are two events such that 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = 3/4, 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 1/4 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑃(𝐴′ ) = 2/3,
𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑛 𝑓𝑖𝑛𝑑 𝑃(𝐴′/𝐵)? 𝐴𝑛𝑠 = 5/8.
2.3. Bayes' Theorem and The Total Probability Theorem
The law of total probability: Suppose 𝐵1 , 𝐵2 , … , 𝐵𝑚 are disjoint events such that 𝐵1 ∪ 𝐵2 ∪ … ∪ 𝐵𝑚 = 𝑆.
The probability of an arbitrary event A can be expressed as:

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 INU Stat Dept Statistics for Land Administration Chapter - 2
𝑃(𝐴) = 𝑃(𝐵1 ) 𝑥 𝑃(𝐴/𝐵1 ) + 𝑃(𝐵2 ) 𝑥 𝑃(𝐴/𝐵2 ) + ⋯ + 𝑃(𝐵𝑚 ) 𝑥 𝑃(𝐴/𝐵𝑚 ).
The following Figure illustrates the law for m = 5. The event A is the disjoint union of 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵𝑖 ,
𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑖 = 1, 2, … , 5 , so 𝑃(𝐴) = 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵1 ) + 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵2 ) + ⋯ + 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵5 ), and for each i the
multiplication rule states 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵𝑖 ) = 𝑃(𝐵𝑖 ) 𝑥 𝑃(𝐴/𝐵𝑖 ).

𝐵1 𝐵2
b1 A vBd
𝐴 ∩ 𝐵1 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵2

𝐴 ∩ 𝐵5 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵3
B3 𝐵3
𝐴 ∩ 𝐵4

𝐴𝐴 ∩ 𝐵1 ∩ 𝐵1 S=B
𝐵5 𝐵4 S
𝐴 ∩ 𝐵1
Bayes' Rule: Suppose the events 𝐵1 , 𝐵2 , … , 𝐵𝑚 are disjoint and 𝐵1 ∪ 𝐵2 ∪ … ∪ 𝐵𝑚 = 𝑆. The conditional
probability of 𝐵𝑖 , given an arbitrary event A, can be expressed as:
𝑃(𝐵𝑖 ∩ 𝐴) 𝑃(𝐵𝑖 ) 𝑥 𝑃(𝐴/𝐵𝑖 )
𝑃(𝐵𝑖 /𝐴) = 𝐴 ∩=
𝐵1
𝑃(𝐴) 𝑃(𝐵1 ) 𝑥 𝑃(𝐴/𝐵1 ) + 𝑃(𝐵2 ) 𝑥 𝑃(𝐴/𝐵2 ) + ⋯ + 𝑃(𝐵𝑚 ) 𝑥 𝑃(𝐴/𝐵𝑚 )
Example 1: Box 1 contains 2 red balls and one blue ball. Box 2 contains 3 blue balls and one red ball. A coin
𝐴 ∩ 𝐵1
is tossed. If it falls heads up, Box 1 is selected and a ball is drawn. If it falls tails up, Box 2 is selected and a
ball is drawn. Then find the probability of selecting a red ball.
𝐴 ∩ 𝐵1
Solution: Let; 𝐵1 − be the event that box 1 is selected.
𝐵2 − be the event that box 2 is selected.
𝑅 − be the event that a red ball is selected.
𝐵 − be the event that a blue ball is selected
𝑃(𝑅/𝐵1 ) = 2/3 R
𝑃(𝐵1 ) = 1/2 𝐵1
𝑃(𝐵/𝐵1 ) = 1/3 B
R
𝑃(𝐵1 ) = 1/2 𝐵2 𝑃(𝑅/𝐵2 ) = 1/4

𝑃(𝐵/𝐵2 ) = 3/4 B

✓ R is selected, if and only if, 𝐵1 is selected and R is selected or 𝐵2 is selected and R is selected.
→≫ 𝑅 = (𝐵1 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑅)𝑜𝑟 (𝐵2 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑅) = (𝐵1 ∩ 𝑅) ∪ (𝐵2 ∩ 𝑅).
𝑃(𝑅) = 𝑃{(𝐵1 ∩ 𝑅) ∪ (𝐵2 ∩ 𝑅)} = 𝑃(𝐵1 ∩ 𝑅) + 𝑃(𝐵2 ∩ 𝑅) = 𝑃(𝐵1 ) 𝑥 𝑃(𝑅/𝐵1 ) + 𝑃(𝐵2 ) 𝑥 𝑃(𝑅/𝐵2 )

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 INU Stat Dept Statistics for Land Administration Chapter - 2
1 2 1 1 1 1 11
= 𝑥 + 𝑥 = + = .
2 3 2 4 3 8 24
Example 2: A shipment of two boxes, each containing 6 telephones, is received by a store. Box1 contains one
defective phone and box 2 contains 2 defective phones. After the boxes are unpacked, a phone is selected and
found to be defective. Then find the probability that it came from box 2.
Solution: Let 𝐵1 − be the event that box 1 is selected.
𝐵2 − be the event that box 2 is selected.
𝐷 − be the event that defective phone is selected.
𝑁𝐷 − be the event that non defective phone is selected.

𝑃(𝐷/𝐵1 ) = 1/6 D

𝑃(𝐵1 ) = 1/2 𝐵1 𝑃(𝑁𝐷/𝐵1 ) = 5/6

ND
𝑃(𝐷/𝐵2 ) = 2/6 D
𝑃(𝐵2 ) = 1/2 𝐵2

𝑃(𝑁𝐷/𝐵2 ) = 4/6 ND
𝑷(𝑩𝟐 /𝑫) =?
𝑃(𝐵2 ∩ 𝐷) 𝑃(𝐵2 ) 𝑥 𝑃(𝐷/𝐵2 ) 𝑃(𝐵2 ) 𝑥 𝑃(𝐷/𝐵2 )
𝑃(𝐵2 /𝐷) = = = .
𝑃(𝐷) 𝑃{(𝐵1 ∩ 𝐷) ∪ (𝐵2 ∩ 𝐷)} 𝑃(𝐵1 ∩ 𝐷) + 𝑃(𝐵2 ∩ 𝐷)
Since, 𝑫 is selected, iff, 𝐵1 is selected and 𝐷 is selected or 𝐵2 is selected and 𝐷 is selected.
✓
𝑃(𝐷) = 𝑃{(𝐵1 ∩ 𝐷) ∪ (𝐵2 ∩ 𝐷)} = 𝑃(𝐵1 ∩ 𝐷) + 𝑃(𝐵2 ∩ 𝐷) = 𝑃(𝐵1 ) 𝑥 𝑃(𝐷/𝐵1 ) + 𝑃(𝐵2 ) 𝑥 𝑃(𝐷/𝐵2 ).
1 1 1 2 1 2 3 1
= 2 𝑥 6 + 2 𝑥 6 = 12 + 12 = 12 = 4. 𝑇ℎ𝑒𝑛
𝑃(𝐵2 ∩ 𝐷) 𝑃(𝐵2 ) 𝑥 𝑃(𝐷/𝐵2 ) 1/2 𝑥 2/6 1/6 1 4 2
𝑃(𝐵2 /𝐷) = = = = = 𝑥 = .
𝑃(𝐷) 𝑃(𝐷) 1/4 1/4 6 1 3

Lecture Notes Compiled By Belete M (As. Prof.) Page 11