Lecture Notes I
Lecture Notes I
For example:
You cut current consumption to purchase stocks and anticipate that stock prices
will rise in the future
You forgo current leisure and income to take the investments class and expect that
a degree in finance from CSUN will enhance your future career
Investments
The detailed study of the investment process - focus of this class
Financial assets
Fixed-income securities: paying a fixed stream of income over a specified period -
CDs, bonds, T-bills, etc.
Equity securities: ownership in a corporation - stocks
Derivative securities: their payoffs depend on the values of other assets - futures,
options, swaps, etc. (FIN 436 - Futures and Options for more details)
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Financial markets and the economy
Informational role of financial markets
Consumption timing
Allocation of risk
Separation of ownership and management: agency problem
Agency problem: potential conflicts between two groups of people
Agency problems exist between managers and shareholders
Agency problems exist between bondholders and shareholders
Corporate governance and corporate ethics
Accounting scandal - WorldCom overstated its profit by at least $3.8 billion
Analyst scandal - systematically misleading and overly optimistic research reports
in exchange for future business
IPO share allocation - to corporate executives in exchange for personal benefit or
future business
Investment process
(1) Investment policy: objective, risk-return trade-off
(2) Asset allocation: choice of broad asset classes
(3) Security selection: choice of particular securities to be held in the portfolio
(4) Security analysis: valuation of securities
(5) Portfolio construction, management and analysis: selection of the best
portfolio (combination)
(6) Portfolio rebalancing: adjustment of the portfolio
Competitive markets
Risk-return trade off: no free lunch rule indicates that assets with higher expected
returns entail greater risk
Efficient markets: security prices should reflect all the information available in
the market quickly and efficiently
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Players in investment markets
Government: federal, state, and local
Investment bankers: firms specializing in the sale of new securities to the public
by underwriting the issue
Private equity: investments in companies that are not traded on a stock exchange
Birth
Growth
Maturity
Decline
Death
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Financial crisis of 2008
Antecedents of the crisis: after the collapse of the high-tech bubble in 2000-2002,
the Fed aggressively reduced interest rates to boost the economy
Housing market boomed and housing prices kept rising
The congress passes several laws and regulations to protect investors and to
mitigate systematic risk
Recent trends
Globalization: integration of global financial markets
Securitization: pooling loans into standardized securities
Financial engineering: creation of new securities by combining primitive and
derivative securities into one composite hybrid (for example, combining stocks
and options) or by separating returns on an asset into classes (for example,
separating principal from interest payment in a fixed income security)
Computer network
Investments as a profession
Investment bankers
Investment companies
Traders and brokers
Security analysts and/or CFA (Chartered Financial Analyst)
Portfolio managers
Financial planners
Financial managers
ASSIGNMENTS
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Chapter 2 - Asset Classes and Financial Instruments
T-bills are issued weekly with initial maturities of 4 weeks, 13 weeks, 26 weeks,
and 52 weeks. The minimum denomination is $100, even though $10,000
denominations are more common. It is only subject to federal taxes and is tax
exempt from state and local taxes.
For example, a 245 day T-bill sells to yield 0.07% (asked) means that a dealer is
willing to sell the T-bill at a discount of 0.07%*(245/360) = 0.04764% from its
face value of $10,000, or at $9,995.236 = [10,000*(1 – 0.0004764)]. If an investor
buys this T-bill, the return over 245 days will be ($10,000/$9,995.236) – 1 =
0.04764%. The annualized return will be 0.04764%*(365/245) = 0.07097% =
0.071% (asked yield). T-bills are quoted based on 360 days per year.
Similarly, a dealer is willing to buy the 245 day T-bill at a discount of 0.085%
(bid) or at $9,994.215 = [10,000*(1 – 0.00085(245/360))] for a face value of
$10,000.
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Banker’s acceptance: an order to a bank by a customer to pay a sum of money in a
future date
Federal funds: funds in the accounts of commercial banks at the Federal Reserve
Bank. To meet the Fed requirement (minimum balance depends on the total
deposits of the banks’ customers, reserve ratio) banks may borrow or lend money
at the Federal funds rate.
LIBOR: London Interbank Offer Rate, which is the rate among big banks in the
London market
Prices are quoted as a percentage of $100 face value (more often traded in
denominations of $1,000 (Figure 2.3)
For example, a bond maturing on Nov. 15, 2015 and quoted at 113.0000 (asked
price) means you pay a price of $113.00 for a face value of $100, or $1,130 for a
face value of $1,000. The coupon rate is 4.5% per year and yield to maturity for
the bond is 1.410%.
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Equivalent taxable yield: r = rm / (1 – t)
Example: suppose your marginal tax rate is 28%. Would you prefer to earn a 6%
taxable return or 4% tax-free return? What is the equivalent taxable return of the
4% tax-free return?
You should prefer 6% taxable return because you get a higher return after tax,
ignoring the risk
Corporate bonds: issued by corporations (rated from AAA, AA, A, BBB, BB, …)
Callable bonds: give the issuing firm the right to buy back its bonds before bonds
mature
International bonds
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Preferred stock: hybrid security with both bond and common stock features
Tax treatment for firms: 70% of preferred stock dividends received by a firm is
tax-exempt (70% exclusion)
Market indexes
Averages vs. indexes
Averages: reflect general price behavior in the market using the arithmetic
average of stock prices (price weighted)
Indexes: reflect general price behavior in the market relative to a base value
(market value weighted)
The divisor must be adjusted for stock dividends and stock splits. In a similar
way, if one firm is dropped from the average and another firm with a different
stock price is added, the divisor has to be updated to leave the average unchanged.
S&P 500 index: a market value-weighted index made up of 500 big company
stocks and is believed to reflect the overall market
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Other averages and indexes
NYSE composite index: behavior of stocks listed on the NYSE (value weighted)
Wilshire 5000 index (NYSE and OTC): overall stock market behavior (value
weighted)
Foreign and international stock market indexes: Nikei 225 (Japan), FTSE 100
(UK), DAX 30 (Germany), Hang Seng 48 (Hong Kong), and TSX 60 (Toronto)
Bond market indicators: Merrill Lynch, Barclays (formerly Lehman Brothers) and
Salomon Smith Barney (now part of Citigroup)
* Stock X has a 2-for-1 stock split before trading on day 1. Date 0 is the base date.
The current divisor is 3.0 and the base value for an S&P type of index is supposed
to be10.
Q1. What would be the value of an S&P type index at the end of date 1?
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Q2. What would be the value of an S&P type index at the end of date 2?
Q3. What would be the value of a DJIA type average at the end of date 2?
Before date 1: DJIA type average = (25 + 50 + 50) / d = 50, solve for d = 2.5
(Rational: A 2-for-1 stock split for stock X will split the price in half but it should
not affect the average itself. Therefore, the divisor should be adjusted.)
At the end of date 2: DJIA type average = (27 + 52 + 52) / 2.5 = 52.4
Answer: closing average before stock dividend = (20 + 30 + 40) / 3.00 = 30.00
Adjust the price of stock B: 30 / (1 + 0.1) = 27.27 (new stock price for B if B
issues 10% stock dividend)
Calculate the new divisor: (20 + 27.27 + 40) / d = 30.00 (stock dividend should
not affect the closing average) and solve for the new divisor, d = 2.91
Derivative markets
Derivative assets or contingent claims: payoffs depend on the prices of other
(underlying) assets
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Example1 - you buy an October 200 IBM call option at $5.00
Call option: right to buy
Stock option: underlying asset is IBM stock (current stock price is $191)
Contract size: 100 shares
Exercises price: $200 to buy one share of IBM stock
Expiration date: the third Friday in October
Option premium: $500
Rationale: you expect IBM stock price is going to rise - speculating
Futures contracts: call for the exchange of certain goods for cash at an arranged-
upon price (future’s price) at a specified future date (obligations)
Example 3 - you buy an October gold futures contract at $1,350 per ounce
Commodity futures contract: underlying asset is gold (commodity)
Contract size: 100 ounces
Futures price: $1,350 per ounce to buy gold (current spot price is $1,290 per
ounce)
Delivery month: October
Rationale: you expect gold price is going to rise - speculating
ASSIGNMENTS
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Chapter 3 - Securities Markets
New issues
How securities are traded
U.S. securities markets
Trading costs
Margin trading and short sales
Regulations
New issues
Recall primary markets and secondary markets
Primary markets: for new issues, either IPOs or existing firms issuing new
securities (seasoned offerings)
IPOs: initial public offerings, shares being sold to the public for the first time
Underwriters: purchase new shares from the issuing firm and resell the shares to
the public
Prospectus: a document that describes the firm issuing the security and provides
the information about the firm
Selling process for large new issues: the role of investment bankers
Underwriting; Advising; Distributing
Individual/Private investors
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Private placement: new securities are sold directly to a small group of individuals
or wealthy investors
Initial return of IPOs: very high first day returns all over the world - Figure 3.2
Direct search markets: buyers and sellers seek each other directly, which are the
least organized markets, for example, a student buys a used car from another
student
Dealer markets: dealers specializing in particular assets buy and sell them in their
own accounts for profits, for example, the over-the-counter (OTC) markets
Auction markets: traders converge at one place to buy and sell assets, for
example, the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). Auction markets are the most
efficient markets because all traders will get the best price possible.
Types of brokers
Full service broker vs. discount broker
Types of accounts
Cash account vs. margin account (without or with borrowing capacity)
Bid price - the highest price a dealer is willing to pay for a given security
Asked price - the lowest price a dealer is willing to sell a given security
Bid-ask spread: the difference of the two prices, which is the profit for a dealer
Types of orders:
Market order: to buy or sell at the best price available
Stop order (stop-loss order): to sell when price reaches or drops below a specified
level or to buy when price reaches or rises above a specified level. It becomes a
market order when the stop price is reached.
Examples
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Comparison of a limit order and a stop order (Figure 3.5)
Price falls below the limit Price rises above the limit
Buy Limit-buy order Stop-buy order
Sell Stop-loss order Limit-sell order
Trading mechanics
Dealer markets: trade through dealers, for example, in OTC markets
Electronic communication networks (ECNs): direct trade over computer network
without market makers or dealers
Specialist markets: trade through specialists, for example, in NYSE
Specialist: a trader who makes a market in the shares of one or more stocks and
maintains a fair and orderly market by dealing personally in the market
NYSE: New York Stock Exchange, the largest exchange in the U.S. with more
than 3,000 firms listed for trading
Block trade: a large transaction in which at least 10,000 shares of stock are bought
or sold
Trading costs
Full service brokers charge more than discount brokers
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Margin trading and short sales
Types of transactions:
Long purchase - direct buy
Short selling - sale of borrowed securities
Margins:
Margin trading - borrow money and buy stock to magnify returns by reducing the
amount of capital that must be put in by investors
Rational: you believe the stock is currently underpriced in the market and expect
the price will rise in the future.
Let P be the price at which your maintenance margin drops to 25%, using (1),
100*P - 2,500
----------------------- = 0.25, solve for P = $33.33
100*P
If the price drops below $33.33, you will receive a margin call.
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b) If the price drops to $40 > $33.33, your account is restricted (losing money)
but there is no margin call.
c) Let X be the amount of money you need to provide (to reduce the loan) to keep
the maintenance margin, using (1)
100*30 - (2,500 - X)
------------------------------ = 0.25, solve for X = $250
100*30
You need to add, at least, $250 to reduce the loan amount to $2,250 in order to
keep the maintenance margin of 25%.
(2) Short sale on margin (you borrow shares from your broker and sell them now)
Rational: you believe the stock is currently overpriced in the market and expect
the price will drop in the future.
Let P be the price at which your margin drops to 30%, using (2),
16,000 - 100*P
------------------------ = 0.30, solve for P = $123.08
100*P
If the price rises above $123.08 you will receive a margin call.
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b) If the price rises to $110 < $123.08, your account is restricted (losing money)
but you will not receive a margin call.
Regulations
Government regulations
Securities Act of 1933: requires full disclosure of relevant information related to
the issue of new securities
ASSIGNMENTS
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Chapter 4 - Mutual Funds and Other Investment Companies
Investment companies
Mutual funds
Costs of investing in mutual funds
Mutual fund returns
Investing in mutual funds
Exchange-traded funds
Investment companies
An investment company is a type of financial intermediary. It sells itself to the
public and uses the funds to invest in a portfolio of securities.
Closed-end fund: it is traded at prices that can differ from NAV and the number
of shares outstanding is fixed
Unit investment trust: money pooled from many investors that is invested in a
portfolio fixed for the life of the fund
Real estate investment trusts (REITs): similar to closed-end funds that invest in
real estate or loans secured by real estate
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Mutual funds
Mutual funds are common names for open-end investment companies
Investment policy: each fund has its policy contained in the fund’s prospectus
Equity funds: mainly invested in stocks, growth funds vs. income funds
Balanced funds: a balanced return from fixed income securities and long-term
capital gains
Index funds: mimic market indexes (for example, S&P 500 index)
Front-end load: deduct a % charge from the initial investment (for example, 5%)
Other fees: for example, 12b-1 fees to cover marketing and distribution costs
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Mutual fund returns
Sources of return: dividend income; capital gains distributions; unrealized capital
gains
NAV1 – NAV0 + I1 + G1
Rate of return = -------------------------------------
NAV0
At the start of the year: $200 million in assets with no liabilities and 10 million
shares outstanding
At the end of the year: dividend income $2 million; no capital gains distribution;
fund price rises by 8%, and 1% of 12b-1 fees is charged at the end of the year
Answer:
NAV0 = $20
NAV1 = 20(1.08)*(1-0.01) = $21.384
I1 = $0.2 and G1 = 0
Selection process
Objectives
What a fund offers – investment policy
Main holdings
Load vs. no-load funds
Open-end vs. closed-end funds
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Taxation on mutual fund income
If it is a retirement account (Roth IRA, regular IRA, 401K or 403B): all taxes are
either exempt or deferred
Turnover ratio: the ratio of the trading activity of a portfolio to the assets of the
portfolio
ASSIGNMENTS
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Chapter 5 - Return and Risk
Rates of return
Risk and risk premium
Historical return
Inflation and real return
Asset allocation
Rates of return
Components of return: cash dividend and capital gains (or capital losses)
Total return ($) = return from cash dividend + return from capital gains (or losses)
Example
Dividend = $4
P0 = $100 P1= $110
0 1
Table 5-1: Quarterly cash flows and rates of return of a mutual fund
1st quarter 2nd quarter 3rd quarter 4th quarter
Assets at the start of quarter 1.0 mil 1.2 mil 2.0 mil 0.8 mil
Holding period return (HPR) 10.0% 25.0% (20.0%) 20.0%
Total assets before net inflow 1.1 mil 1.5 mil 1.6 mil 0.96 mil
Net inflow 0.1 mil 0.5 mil (0.8 mil) 0.6 mil
Assets at the end of quarter 1.2 mil 2.0 mil 0.8 mil 1.56 mil
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Arithmetic mean: simple average, the sum of returns in each period divided by the
number of periods - best forecast of performance in the future
Quarter
0 1 2 3 4
Net cash flow -1.0 -0.1 -0.5 0.8 0.96
IRR = 3.38%
APR n
EAR (1 ) 1
n
Variance and standard deviation: measure of dispersion around the mean (risk)
Example
State of the Economy Scenario, s Probability, p(s) HPR, r(s)
Boom 1 0.25 44%
Normal 2 0.50 14%
Recession 3 0.25 - 16%
S
Expected return = E (r ) p( s) * r ( s) = 14%
s 1
S
Variance = 2 p( s) *[r ( s) E (r )] 2 = 450;
s 1
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Risk premium: expected return in excess of the risk-free rate, an additional return
to compensate for taking risk
E (r p ) r f
E (rp ) r f 1 2 A 2p , where A is the risk aversion coefficient or A
1
2 2p
For example, if the risk premium is 8%, the standard deviation is 20%, then the
risk aversion coefficient A = 4. The higher the risk aversion is for an investor, the
higher the value of A, and the higher the risk premium.
E (rp ) r f 8%
Sharpe (Reward-to-Volatility) ratio = S = = = 0.4
p 20%
(More discussions in Chapter 18)
Historical return
Using historical data to estimate mean and standard deviation
Example: MO
Historical returns: summary statistics for the U.S market and the world during
1926 - 2010 (Table 5.2)
68. 26%
95. 44%
99. 74%
Mean-2 Mean+2
Mean
Size effect: average returns generally are higher as firm size declines
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Inflation and real return
Nominal interest rate vs. real interest rate
r R – i (the real rate, r is approximately equal to the nominal rate, R minus the
inflation rate, i)
R = r + E(i)
Nominal interest rate = the real interest rate + expected inflation rate
Asset allocation
Asset allocation: portfolio choice among different investment classes
Where E(rc) and c are the expected rate of return and standard deviation for a
complete portfolio, E(rp) and p are the expected rate of return and standard
deviation for the risky assets, rf is the return on the risk-free asset, y is the weight
on risky-assets, and 1-y is the weight on the risk-free asset. The capital allocation
line (CAL): a plot of risk-return combinations available by varying portfolio
allocation (weights) between the risk-free asset and the risky portfolio.
E(rc)
P
E(rp) y = 1.5
CAL
rf
y = 0.5
p
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Example: if E(rp) = 15%, p = 22%, rf = 7%, y = 50%, then
15% 7%
E(rc) = 11%, c = 11%, the Sharpe measure = S 0.36
22%
Capital market line (CML): a capital allocation line using the market index
portfolio as the risky portfolio
E(rc)
M
E(rM) y = 1.5
CML
rf
y = 0.5
M
Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) and its applications – a review of Fin 303
E(ri)
SML
Slope = E(rm) - rf
rf
i
ASSIGNMENTS
1. Concept Checks
2. Key Terms
3. Intermediate: 5, 6, 12-16 and CFA 1-6
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