MS 207 Management Science Notes Unit 1-4
MS 207 Management Science Notes Unit 1-4
SCIENCE
PRESENTED BY-
Mr. ASHWIN GEDAM
ASST. PROF.
GGITS, MBA
UNIT 1
• Operations Research Nature and significance of operation research,
Scope and phases of operations research. Basic operations research
models, Role of Computers in operations research.
• Linear Programming (LP) Generalized Linear Programming Models.
Solutions to LP Models by Graphical methods and Simplex methods.
Big M method. Duality in LP Models.
UNIT 2
• Special Types of Linear Programming. Transportation models and
their solutions (Basic & Optimal).
• Assignment models and solutions (and its special cases).
UNIT 3
• Special Operation Research Techniques Decision Theory and Decision
tree.
• Theory of games, Replacement Theory
• Queuing problems and models.
UNIT 4
• Job Sequencing Models and solutions
• Network scheduling by PERT & CPM (Introduction and application)
• Network analysis
• Time estimation
• Probabilistic estimation
UNIT 5
• Inventory Control Model
• Deterministic & probabilistic Models
UNIT 1
Operations Research Nature and significance of
operation research, Scope and phases of
operations research. Basic operations research
models, Role of Computers in operations research.
Linear Programming (LP) Generalized Linear
Programming Models. Solutions to LP Models by
Graphical methods and Simplex methods. Big M
method. Duality in LP Models.
Operations Research Nature and significance
of operation research
Example: A Case of Factory Production
• Imagine a manufacturing company that produces various products.
The factory needs to optimize its production schedule to minimize
costs, maximize efficiency, and meet customer demand.
• Here’s how O.R. can help:
➢Production Planning:
➢O.R. techniques analyze historical data, demand forecasts, and
resource availability to create an optimal production plan.
➢The goal is to allocate resources (such as machines, labor, and
raw materials) efficiently while meeting production targets.
➢Inventory Management:
➢O.R. models help determine the optimal inventory levels for raw
materials, work-in-progress, and finished goods.
➢Balancing inventory costs (storage, holding, and ordering) with
production requirements is crucial.
➢Scheduling:
➢O.R. assists in creating production schedules that minimize idle
time, reduce changeovers, and maintain smooth operations.
➢Factors like machine setup times, processing rates, and due dates
are considered.
➢Supply Chain Optimization:
➢O.R. helps optimize supply chain decisions, such as selecting
suppliers, transportation routes, and distribution centers.
➢The objective is to minimize costs while ensuring timely delivery.
➢Quality Control:
➢O.R. models can improve quality control processes by identifying
optimal inspection points and sampling strategies.
➢Balancing inspection costs with defect prevention is essential.
➢Resource Allocation:
➢O.R. assists in allocating scarce resources (like labor shifts or
machine hours) to different production tasks.
➢The goal is to maximize overall productivity.
➢Maintenance Scheduling:
➢O.R. techniques optimize maintenance schedules for machinery
and equipment.
➢Balancing preventive maintenance, downtime, and repair costs is
critical.
➢Routing and Logistics:
➢O.R. helps design efficient routes for transporting goods between
factories, warehouses, and customers.
➢Minimizing transportation costs and delivery time is the objective.
➢Facility Location:
➢When expanding or setting up new facilities, O.R. aids in selecting
optimal locations.
➢Factors like proximity to suppliers, customers, and transportation
networks are considered.
➢Energy Management:
➢O.R. models optimize energy usage in factories by scheduling
production during off-peak hours or using energy-efficient
processes.
What is operations research?
• The subject OPERATIONS RESEARCH is a branch of mathematics -
specially applied mathematics, used to provide a scientific base for
management to take timely and effective decisions to their problems.
• It tries to avoid the dangers from taking decisions merely by guessing
or by using thumb rules. Management is the multidimensional and
dynamic concept.
Multidimensional & Dynamic nature of
Management
• It is multidimensional, because management problems and their
solutions have consequences in several dimensions, such as human,
economic social and political fields.
• As the manager operates his system in an environment, which will
never remain static, hence is dynamic in nature.
• Hence any manager, while making decisions, consider all aspects in
addition to economic aspect, so that his solution should be useful in all
aspects.
DEFINITIONS
1.Definition by P.M. Morse and G.E. Kimball.
Note: the column below the maximum value in Cj-Zj row becomes the key column
Note: divide the capacity column value by key column value
Initial Table: finding the key row and key element
x2 is entering variable
S1 is leaving variable
Note: the row right to the least value in Ratio column becomes key row
Note: the value at the intersection of key row and key column is key element
Iteration 1
Initiation of the iteration process
• The above process is done in order to get the new elements in the
table, in the table in the previous slide, X2 is entering variable and S1
is leaving variable, so the in iteration table replace S1 by X2.
• After this stage we will commence the iteration process
The iteration table with new introduce element ‘x2’
Add the coefficient of X2 i.e., 16 in CBi
column. This is ITERATION TABLE
Finding new elements of Iteration table, for Row X2
For finding new elements of
iteration table we will consider
the row S1 elements of Initial
table, and the divide the
elements of row S1 by key
element, i.e., 20; so the new
elements obtained will be
1. 10/20= ½
2. 20/20= 1
3. 1/20= 1/20
4. 0/20= 0
5. 120/20= 6
Iteration table: After finding elements of Row X2
Using the below formula to calculate the
elements of Row S2
Finding new elements of Iteration table, Row S2
For finding new elements of iteration
table we will consider the row S2
elements of Initial table, by using the
below mentioned formula:
New Value = old value- Corresponding key X Corresponding key
column value Row value
Key Element
96
Again, Check for optimality condition in
Iteration table 1
• Still in the table the value of Cj-Zj ≥0 , so in this case we will again do
iteration for obtaining the optimal value.
Iteration 1 contd…
Key Element
0 S1 1 4 1 0 0 24
0 S2 3 1 0 1 0 21
0 S3 1 1 0 0 1 9
Zj 0 0 0 0 0 0
Cj-Zj 2 5 0 0 0
Initial Simplex Table: finding key element
Cj 2 5 0 0 0
0 S2 3 1 0 1 0 21 21/1= 21
0 S3 1 1 0 0 1 9 9/1 = 9
Zj 0 0 0 0 0 0
Cj-Zj 2 5 0 0 0
Iteration Table 1
Cj 2 5 0 0 0
0 S2
0 S3
Zj
Cj-Zj
Calculation for Row X2 : divide the elements of
Row S1 of initial table by key element i.e.,4
• The elements of new Row X2 will be =
Using the below formula to find element of
Row S2 and Row S3
Calculations for elements of Row S2 and Row S3
Finding elements of Iteration Table 1
Cj 2 5 0 0 0
0 S2 11/4 0 -1/4 1 0 15
0 S3 3/4 0 -1/4 0 1 3
Zj 5/4 5 5/4 0 0 30
0 S3 3/4 0 -1/4 0 1 3 4
Zj 5/4 5 5/4 0 0 30
0 S2
0 X1
Zj
Cj-Zj
Iteration Table 2
Cj 2 5 0 0 0
0 S2 0 0 2/3 1 -11/3 4
0 X1 1 0 -1/3 0 4/3 4
Zj 2 5 1 0 1 33
Cj-Zj 0 0 -1 0 -1
Answer
• Thus , the optimal solution obtained will be:
• X1=4
• S2=4
• X2=5
• Z (profit)= 33
Linear Programming Model
(Solution by Simplex Method) Resource
Allocation Model – Minimization Case-
Big M Method
Use simplex Big M method to solve the
following-
• Minimize Z = 7x1+15x2+20x3
• Subject to,
• 2x1+4x2+6x3 ≥ 24
• 3x1+9x2+6x3 ≥ 30
• x1,x2,x3 ≥ 0
Removing inequalities and adding dummy
variables S1,S2,MA1 & MA2
• Minimize Z = 7x1+15x2+20x3+0S1+0S2+MA1+MA2
• Subject to,
• 2x1+4x2+6x3+S1 = 24
• 3x1+9x2+6x3+S2 = 30
• Here, x1,x2,x3,S1,S2,MA1 & MA2 ≥ 0
Minimize Z = 7x1+15x2+20x3+0S1+0S2+MA1+MA2
Subject to,
2x1+4x2+6x3+S1 = 24
Initial Simplex
3x1+9x2+6x3+S2 = 30
Table
Cj 7 15 20 0 0 M M
R2 M A 3 9 6 0 -1 0 1 30 30/9=10/3
R1 M A1 2 4 6 -1 0 1 0 24 24/4=6
R2 M A2 3 9 6 0 -1 0 1 30 30/9=10/3
Zj 7 15 20 -3 -1/3 - - 82
Cj-Zj 0 0 0 3 1/3 - -
Answer
• Thus, the optimal condition thus obtained is-
• X3=16/5
• X2=6/5
• Min Z = 82
DULAITY IN LINEAR
PROGRAMMING
INTRODUCTION
• Most important finding in the development of Linear Programming
Problems is the existence of duality in linear programming problems.
• Linear programming problems exist in pairs. That is in linear
programming problem, every maximization problem is associated with
a minimization problem.
• Conversely, associated with every minimization problem is a
maximization problem. Once we have a problem with its objective
function as maximization, we can write by using duality relationship
of linear programming problems, its minimization version. The
original linear programming problem is known as primal problem, and
the derived problem is known as dual problem.
The concept of Dual Problem
• The concept of the dual problem is important for several reasons. Most
important are (i) the variables of dual problem can convey important
information to managers in terms of formulating their future plans and (ii)
in some cases the dual problem can be instrumental in arriving at the
optimal solution to the original problem in many fewer iterations, which
reduces the labour of computation.
• Whenever, we solve the primal problem, may be maximization or
minimization, we get the solution for the dual automatically. That is, the
solution of the dual can be read from the final table of the primal and vice
versa. Let us try to understand the concept of dual problem by means of an
example. Let us consider the diet problem, which we have discussed while
discussing the minimization case of the linear programming problem.
What is Duality in Linear Programming?
• Duality in linear programming is a unifying theory that develops the
relationships between a given linear program and another related linear
program. This concept is based on the principle that every optimization
problem may be viewed from the primal problem or the dual problem.
• The duality theory in linear programming is concerned with the study of the
relationship between two related linear programming problems, where if the
primal is a maximization problem, then the dual is a minimization problem
and vice versa.
• The importance of duality is twofold:
1.Sometimes, the dual problem is easier to solve for an initial feasible
solution than the primal problem.
2.It provides a way to understand the sensitivity of the solution to changes in
the input data
Steps for a standard primal form
1. Change the objective function to maximization form.
2. If the constraints have an inequality sign ‘≥’ then convert the same to ‘≤’ .
3. If the constraint has an ‘=’ sign then replace it by two constraints
involving the inequalities going in opposite directions. For example
x1+2x2=4 then convert it into equations, x1+2x2 ≤ 4 and x1+2x2 ≥ 4 => -
x1-2x2 ≤ -4
4. Every unrestricted variable is replaced by the difference of two non-
negative variables, x3= x3’-x3’’
5. Standard primal form of the given LPP in which- (i) all constraints have
‘≤’ sign, where the objective function is of maximization form. (ii) all
constraints have ‘≥’ sign, where the objective function is of minimization
form.
Primal and dual form
• In every LP problem the initial problem is known as Primal problem.
• In dual LPP we have other problem which is derived from the primal
one known as Dual problem.
• In duality there are two kinds of ways to solve the dual problems:
1. Primal to dual conversion
2. Dual simplex method
Primal to Dual conversion concept 1
Concept 1: When objective function of LPP is either Min or Max
• In concept 2 we need to change Primal form first to Standard primal
form, i.e., Max Z form. If the objective function is Max Z, then there
is no need to change the function, but if the function is Min Z then we
need to change the function to Max Z by multiplying (-1) with the
equation. Once changed to Max Z form we need to convert the
function to dual form.
• Secondly, change all the sign of constraints equation from ≥ to ≤ ,
then convert the same to Dual form.
Primal to dual conversion Concept 1
Q. Convert the following into dual conversion form
Primal to Dual conversion concept 2
Concept 2: When objective function of LPP is either Min or Max.
• In concept 2 we need to keep the Primal form of either Max Z and Min
Z in Standard primal form. We need to change only the signs of the
constraints. Once changed to individual Min Z or Max Z form, convert
the same to dual form.
Answer
END
UNIT-II
SPECIAL TYPES OF LINEAR
PROGRAMMING
SYLLABUS
• Special Types of Linear Programming:
➢Transportation models and their solutions (Basic & Optimal).
➢Assignment models and solutions (and its special cases).
Introduction to the Transportation Problem
• The transportation
model deals with a (Warehouse/market)
special class of linear
programming
problem in which the
objective is to
transport a
homogeneous
commodity from
various origins or
factories to different
destinations or
markets at a total
minimum cost.
Assumptions of Transportation problem
Linear and Constant Transportation Costs:
• The transportation costs (shipping costs) are assumed to be linear and
constant. In other words, the cost of transporting a unit of goods from
one source to a destination remains consistent.
Fixed Supply and Demand:
• Each source has a fixed supply of units, and this entire supply must be
distributed to the destinations.
• Similarly, each destination has a fixed demand for units.
Assumptions of Transportation
problem…contd
Homogeneous Goods:
• The goods being transported are assumed to be homogeneous (i.e.,
identical).
Balanced and Unbalanced Problems:
• If the total supply equals the total demand, the transportation problem
is considered balanced.
• If the total supply and total demand do not match, it is an unbalanced
transportation problem.
Assumptions of Transportation problem…contd
.
.
.
Bn+1
Unbalance case II : when Supply < Demand
Add extra dummy row
.
..
Am+1
------
APPROACH TO SOLUTION TO A
TRANSPORTATION PROBLEM BY
USING TRANSPORTATION ALGORITHM
I. Obtaining Initial Basic Feasible solution or IBFS
Step I:
• Balancing the given problem. Balancing means check whether sum of
availability constraints is equal to sum of requirement constraints. That is
whether supply = demand.
• Once they are equal, go to step two.
• If not, then open a Dummy row or Dummy column to balance the
problem. The cost coefficients of dummy cells are zero. If supply < demand
then add dummy row to the transportation table, if supply > demand then add
dummy column to the table as discussed above.
• Remember while solving general linear programming problem to convert an
inequality into an equation, we add (for maximization problem) a slack
variable. In transportation problem, the dummy row or dummy column is
added exactly similar to a slack variable.
Step II
Find an initial basic feasible solution:
• To find initial basic solution following test are used:
i. North-west corner method (describe in few words)
ii. Row minima method (describe in few words)
iii. Column minima method (describe in few words)
iv. Lowest cost entry method (Matrix minima method) (describe in few
words)
v. Vogel’s approximation method (VAM) or Unit cost penalty method
(describe in few words)
Step III
Check for non-degeneracy
• Check whether the solution obtained during performing initial basic
feasible process is degenerate or not. To check the same, the
following two conditions must be satisfied, i.e.,
1. m+n-1 = number of allocations
2. Whether the allocated cells are in independent positions or not.
• If the above two conditions are satisfied then we can say that the
obtained solution is non-degenerate.
• Note: If the solution obtained is degenerate then we will perform
operations to remove degeneracy and proceed further.
Step IV
If the basic Feasible Solution if non-degenerate
Perform an optimality test and iterate till
optimal solution is obtained
Optimality is used to examine whether there can be a minimum cost that
can be obtained further much less than the cost obtained in Basic
Feasible Stage. Following methods are used to check whether the
solution obtained is optimal or not. :
i. MODI method (Modified distribution ) or UV method
ii. Stepping stone method
Questions and solutions on :
i. North-west corner method
ii. Row minima method
iii. Column minima method
iv. Lowest cost entry method (Matrix minima method)
v. Vogel’s approximation method (VAM) or Unit cost penalty method
METHOD 1:NORTH WEST CORNER
RULE
W1 W2 W3 W4 FACTORY
CAPACITY
F1 19 30 50 10 7
F2 70 30 40 60 9
F3 40 8 70 20 18
WAREHOUSE 5 8 7 14
REQUIREMENT
STEP I CHECK FOR BALANCE
WAREHOUSE W1 W2 W3 W4 FACTORY
FACTORY
CAPACITY
F1 19 30 50 10 7
F2 70 30 40 60 9
F3 40 8 70 20 18
WAREHOUSE 5 8 7 14 34
REQUIREMENT
SUPPLY = DEMAND
34=34
STEP II FINDING INTIAL BASIC
FEASIBLE SOLUTION
W1 W2 W3 W4 FACTORY
CAPACITY
F1 19 30 50 10 7, 2 0
5 2
F2 70 30 40 60 9, 3 0
6 3
F3 40 8 70 20 18, 14 0
4 14
WAREHOUSE 50 8, 6, 0 7, 4, 0 14, 0
REQUIREMENT
STEP III- FINIDNG OPTIMAL COST
• Total cost- 19*5 + 30*2 + 40*3 + 70*4 + 20*14 = 1015 Rs.
Q. Determine the IBFS using NWCR
W1 W2 W3 W4 W5 SUPPLY
F1 3 4 6 8 9 20
F2 2 10 1 5 8 30
F3 7 11 20 40 3 15
F4 2 1 9 14 16 13
DEMAND 40 6 8 18 6
• x11=20, x21= 20, x22=6,x23= 4 x33= 4, x34=11, x44=7 ,and
x45=6
• Min cost= 3*20+2*20+10*6+1*4+4*4+40*11+14*7+16*6
• 814 Rs.
METHOD 2:ROW MINIMA RULE
WAREHOUSE W1 W2 W3 W4 SUPPLY
FACTORY
F1
6 3 5 4 22
F2
5 9 2 7 15
F3
5 7 8 6 8
DEMAND
7 12 17 9
STEP I:CHECK FOR BALANCE
WAREHOUSE W1 W2 W3 W4 SUPPLY
FACTORY
F1
6 3 5 4 22
F2
5 9 2 7 15
F3
5 7 8 6 8
DEMAND
7 12 17 9 45
SUPPLY = DEMAND
45=45
STEP II:INITIAL BASIC FEASIBLE
SOLUTIONS
WAREHOUSE W1 W2 W3 W4 SUPPLY
FACTORY
F1 6 3 5 4 22 10 1 0
12 1 9
F2 5 9 2 7 15 0
15
F3 5 7 8 6 810
7 1
DEMAND 70 12 0 17 16 0 90
SUPPLY = DEMAND
45=45
STEP III- FINDING TOTAL COST
=3*12+5*1+4*9+2+15+5*7+8*1
=36+5+36+30+35+8
=150 Rs.
Q. Solve using row minima method
D1 D2 D3 D4 SUPPLY
F1 5 2 4 3 22
F2 4 8 1 6 15
F3 4 6 7 5 8
DEMAND
7 12 17 9
answer
• 12*2+1*4+9*3+15*1 + 7*4 + 1*7
• 105
METHOD 3:COLUMN MINIMA METHOD
WAREHOUSE W1 W2 W3 SUPPLY
FACTORY
F1
10 13 6 10
F2
16 7 13 12
F3
8 22 2 8
DEMAND
6 11 13
STEP I- CHECK FOR BALANCE
WAREHOUSE W1 W2 W3 SUPPLY
FACTORY
F1 10 13 6 10
F2 16 7 13 12
F3 8 22 2 8
DEMAND 6 11 13 30
SUPPLY = DEMAND
30=30
STEP II: INITIAL BASIC FEASIBLE
SOLUTIONS
WAREHOUSE W1 W2 W3 SUPPLY
FACTORY
F1 10 13 6 10 10 0
F2 16 7 11 13 1 121 0
F3 8 6 22 2 2 820
DEMAND 60 11 0 13 11 1 0
STEP III-FIND TOTAL MINIMUM COST
• 8*6+7*11+13*1+2*2+6*10
• = 202 Rs
Q Solve using Column Minima Method
D1 D2 D3 SUPPLY
F1 16 19 12 14
F2 22 13 19 16
F3 14 28 8 12
DEMAND 10 15 17
• 14*12+15*13+19*1+ 10*14 + 2*8
• 538rs.
METHOD 4:LOWEST COST ENTRY
METHOD (MATRIX MINIMA METHOD)
WAREHOUSE W1 W2 W3 W4 SUPPLY
FACTORY
F1 19 30 50 10 7
F2 70 30 40 60 9
F3 40 8 70 20 18
DEMAND 5 8 7 14
STEP I- CHECK FOR BALANCE
WAREHOUSE W1 W2 W3 W4 SUPPLY
FACTORY
F1 19 30 50 10 7
F2 70 30 40 60 9
F3 40 8 70 20 18
DEMAND 5 8 7 14 34
STEP II-FIND IBFS (Initial Basic Feasible
Solution)
WAREHOUSE W1 W2 W3 W4 SUPPLY
FACTORY
F1 19 30 50 10 70
7
F2 70 30 40 60 920
2 7
F3 40 8 70 20 18 10 3 0
3 8 7
DEMAND 5 2 0 80 7 0 14 7 0
STEP III- FIND TOTAL MINIMUM COST
✓70*2+40*3+8*8+40*7+10*7+20*7
✓140+120+64+280+70+140
✓814 Rs.
Q. Solve using least cost method
D1 D2 D3 D4 SUPPLY
O1
6 4 1 5 14
O2
8 9 2 7 16
O3
4 3 6 2 5
DEMAND
6 10 15 4
• The total minimum cost is given by:
• 1*14+8*6+9*9+2*1+3*1+2*4
• 14+48+81+2+3+8
• 156 Rs.
METHOD 5: VOGEL’S APPROXIMATION
METHOD
WAREHOUSE W1 W2 W3 W4 SUPPLY
FACTORY
F1 19 30 50 10 7
F2 70 30 40 60 9
F3 40 8 70 20 18
DEMAND 5 8 7 14
STEP I: CHECK FOR BALANCE
WAREHOUSE W1 W2 W3 W4 SUPPLY
FACTORY
F1 19 30 50 10 7
F2 70 30 40 60 9
F3 40 8 70 20 18
DEMAND 5 8 7 14 34
STEP II- FIND INTIAL BASIC FEASIBLE SOLUTIONS
STEP III- FIND MINIMUM COST
• = 19*5+10*2+40*7+60*2+8*8+20*10
• = 95+20+280+120+64+200
• = 779 Rs.
Q. Solve using Vogel’s Approximation
Method
1 2 3 4
A 3 8 7 4
B 1 7 5 9
C 8 4 3 2
Rules in case of Tie penalty
1. In case of tie among the highest penalties select the row or column
having minimum cost.
2. In case of tie in the min cost also, select the cell which can have
maximum allocation.
3. In case of tie in the maximum allocation also, select the cell
randomly for allocation.
II. Properties of a basic feasible solution
1. The allocation made must satisfy the rim requirements, i.e., it must satisfy
availability constraints and requirement constraints.
2. It should satisfy non negativity constraint.
3. Total number of allocations must be equal to (m + n – 1), where 'm' is the
number of rows and 'n' is the number of columns. Consider a value of m = 4 and
n = 3, i.e. 4 × 3 matrix. This will have four constraints of ≤ type and three
constraints of ≥ type. Totally it will have 4 + 3 (i.e m + n) inequalities. If we
consider them as equations, for solution purpose, we will have 7 equations. In
case, if we use simplex method to solve the problem, only six rather than seen
structural constraints need to be specified. In view of the fact that the sum of the
origin capacities (availability constraint) equals to the destination requirements
(requirement constraint) i.e., b i Σ = Σdj, any solution satisfying six of the seven
constraints will automatically satisfy the last constraint. In general, therefore, if
there are 'm' rows and 'n' columns, in a given transportation problem, we can
state the problem completely with m + n – 1 equations. This means that one of
the rows of the simplex tableau represents a redundant constraint and, hence,
can be deleted. This also means that a basic feasible solution of a transportation
problem has only m + n – 1 positive components. If b Σ = Σdj, it is always
possible to get a basic feasible solution by North-west corner method, Least
Cost cell method or by VAM
Maximization case of Transportation Problem
• Basically, the transportation problem is a minimization problem, as the
objective function is to minimize the total cost of transportation.
Hence, when we would like to maximize the objective function. There
are two methods.
• (i) The given matrix is to be multiplied by –1, so that the problem
becomes maximization problem. Or ii) Subtract all the elements in the
matrix from the highest element in the matrix. Then the problem
becomes maximization problem. Then onwards follow all the steps of
maximization problem to get the solution. Let us consider the same
problem solved above.
What is degeneracy in transportation
problem- A note
• In the context of a transportation problem, degeneracy occurs when the basic
feasible solution has fewer positive allocations (occupied cells) than the sum of
the number of origins (m) and destinations (n) minus one, i.e., less than m + n -
1. This is also known as the Rim condition.
• A transportation problem is said to be degenerate if the total number of allocations
is less than m + n - 1. In other words, the supply and demand constraints are not
fully binding, leading to redundant allocations.
• To resolve degeneracy, a small quantity close to zero (often denoted by a Greek
letter ε or Δ) is allocated to one or more unoccupied cells to satisfy the condition
m + n - 1. The cell containing this extremely small quantity is considered to be an
occupied cell.
• It’s important to note that degeneracy can lead to computational difficulties in
solving the transportation problem, and resolving it is crucial for the correct
application of methods like the North-West Corner Rule, Least Cost Method, or
Vogel’s Approximation Method
Degeneracy in Transportation Problem (176)
• Earlier, it is mentioned that the basic feasible solution of a
transportation problem must have (m + n – 1) basis variables or
allocations. This means to say that the number of occupied cells or
loaded cells in a given transportation problem is 1 less than the sum of
number of rows and columns in the transportation matrix. Whenever
the number of occupied cells is less than (m + n – 1) , the
transportation problem is said to be degenerate. Degeneracy in
transportation problem can develop in two ways. First, the problem
becomes degenerate when the initial programme is designed by
northwest corner or inspection or VAM, i.e. at the stage of initial
allocation only.
• To solve degeneracy at this stage, we can allocate extremely small amount
of goods (very close to zero) to one or more of the empty cells depending
on the shortage, so that the total occupied cells becomes m + n – 1. The cell
to which small element (load) is allocated is considered to be an occupied
cell. In transportation problems, Greek letter ‘∈’ represents the small
amount. One must be careful enough to see that the smallest element
epsilon is added to such an empty cell, which will enable us to write row
number ‘ui’ and column number ‘vj’ without any difficulty while giving
optimality test to the basic feasible solution by MODI method. That is care
must be taken to see that the epsilon is added to such a cell, which will not
make a closed loop, when we move horizontally and vertically from loaded
cell to loaded cell.
• Secondly, the transportation problem may become degenerate during
the solution stages. This happens when the inclusion of a most
favorable empty cell i.e. cell having highest opportunity cost results in
simultaneous vacating of two or more of the currently occupied cells.
Here also, to solve degeneracy, add epsilon to one or more of the
empty cells to make the number of occupied cells equals to (m + n –
1).
Degeneracy in Transportation problem
• During finding of IBFS (Intial Basic Feasible Solution) we make sure
that , the below condition must be met, i.e.,
M+n-1 = no. of allocations
• If somehow, m+n-1 > no. of allocations, it is known as degeneracy
• The degeneracy at transportation problem is formed at two levels:
1. Degenracy at the initial solutions, it happens when, m+n-1 > no. of
allocations
2. It does happen in IBFS stage but may also produced in optimla stage
also.
Solution to Degeneracy during the initial
stage
S1 S2 S3 AVAILABILITY
F1 8 7 3 60
F2 3 8 9 70
F3 11 3 5 80
REQUIREMENT 50 80 80
Step1: Find IBFS (initial basic feasible solution)
S1 S2 S3 AVAILABILITY
F1 8 7 3 60
60
F2 3 8 9 20
70
50
F3 11 3 5 80
80
REQUIREMENT 50 80 80
F1 8 7 3 60 60
F2 3 50 8 9 20 70
F3 11 3 80 5 ∆ 80 + ∆
REQUIREMENT
50 80 80 + ∆
• ∆ = equivalent to zero
Then find the min cost
= 3*60 + 3*50 + 9*20 +3*80 + 5 * ∆
= 3*60 + 3*50 + 9*20 +3*80 + 5 * 0
= 750 Rs,
This is IBFS.
Finding optimal solution in Transportation
problem
• Whenever we find an basic feasible solution we get a minimum value
in terms of cost or any other element. The value can be reduced further
if we went far beyond calculation the Basic Feasible Solution of BFS.
• To find whether we can reduce the value obtained in BFS of the
transportation problem. We use two methods, usually known as:
1. MODI method (Modified distribution ) or UV method
2. Stepping stone method
I. MODI Method or UV Method
The modified solution will be given in the
following table
II. Stepping Stone Method
• We will understand the concept of Stepping stone method by solving
the following the below mentioned example of transportation:
Destinations
Sources
Step 1: check whether the matrix is balanced
or not
• As the supply = demand = 34 , thus we say that the problem is
balanced
Step 2: Solve the problem using VAM (Vogel’s
Approximation Method)
• We can solve the above problem by any method if not asked, here we
are using VAM to solve the problem:
Supply Penalty
Minimum cost
= 2*3 + 7*2
+ 1*8 +4*7+1*4+2*10
= 80Rs.
Demand
Penalty
Step 3: Check for non-degeneracy and
independency of the allocated cells
• So, m+n-1 = 6 , that is, 3+4-1 = 6, or 6=6 , thus the solution is non-
degenerate
• Also, the allocations are independent.
• Thus, we can apply optimality procedure to the following problem.
Step IV: Apply Stepping stone method to the
matrix as below (iteration 1):
The new modified matrix will be as below:
I II III IV
A 8 26 17 11
TASK
B 13 28 4 26
C 38 19 18 15
D 19 26 24 10
Using Hungarian Method- Row Reduction
1. Subtract the smallest element of each row from every element of that
row. This is known as row reduction
EMPLOYEES
I II III IV
A 0 18 9 3
TASK
B 9 24 0 22
C 23 4 3 0
D 9 16 14 0
Using Hungarian Method- Column
Reduction
1. Subtract the smallest element of each column from every element of
that column. This is known as column reduction
EMPLOYEES
I II III IV
A 0 14 9 3
TASK
B 9 20 0 22
C 23 0 3 0
D 9 12 14 0
Start assignment
• Check for single zeros only starting with rows first, where you
encounter two zeros leave that row and jump to next row. Once all the
single zeros are assigned in the rows, go with the column, check for
single zeros in each column. If you encounter any single zero in a
column assign it and cancel the zero in the same row of the assigned
zero. The zeros highlighted with yellow are assigned zeros and marked
with red are cancelled zero.
I II III IV
A 0 14 9 3
B 9 20 0 22
C 23 0 3 0
D 9 12 14 0
Check for optimality
• If the no. of assignments = no. of m*n
• i.e., 4 = 4*4
• Then, we can say that our assignment process was performed well.
Also, each and every row must have one assignment.
Answer: Assign values to the subjects and
calculate man hours
• A-I, B-III, C-II, D-IV
•8 4 19 10
• Total man hours = 8+4+19+10= 41 Hrs.
Question 2
• How should the task be allocated one to a man so as to minimize the
total man hours?
MEN
a b c d
A 18 26 17 11
TASK
B 13 28 14 26
C 38 19 18 15
D 19 26 24 10
1. Row Reduction
a b c d
A 7 15 6 0
B 0 15 1 13
C 23 4 3 0
D 9 16 14 0
2. Column reduction
a b c d
A 7 11 5 0
B 0 11 0 13
C 23 0 2 0
D 9 12 13 0
Check for optimality
• That is, no. of assignment = m*n
• But, here, 3 = 4 * 4
• As the optimality condition is not reached , we need to further update
the same, as row fourth ha no assignment we need to improve the
solution
1. Tick the row in which there are no assignment
2. Tick the zero in that row
3. Tick the element which contain the assigned zero in 2nd column
4. Check the unticked rows and ticked column
5. Draw lines through them (no. of zeros is out of the line)
6. Now the element in the matrix is either covered or uncovered by
,lines
a b c d
A 7 11 5 0 3
B 0 11 0 13
C 23 0 2 0
D 9 12 13 0 • 1
• 2
• Find the smallest no. in the uncovered elements, here it is 5.
• Now the elements which have the line over them, leave them as it is,
the element lying at the intersection of two lines add +5. The elements
which are not covered subtract -5
This will be updated matrix-
a b c d
A 2 6 0 0
B 0 11 0 18
C 23 0 2 5
D 4 7 8 0
• Now, apply optimality condition-
• No. of assignment = m*n
• 4 =4*4
• Thus the optimal assignment will be-
• A-c, B-a, C-b, D-d
⁼ A-III, B-I, C-II, D-IV
⁼ 17 13 19 10
⁼ TOTAL HOURS= 59 hrs
Q3. Solve the following assignment problem
I II III IV V
1 10 5 9 18 11
2 13 9 6 12 14
3 3 2 4 4 5
4 18 9 12 17 15
5 11 6 14 19 10
Answer
• 1-I, 2-III, 3-IV, 4-II, 5-V
Q.4
1 2 3 4
1 5 7 11 6
2 8 5 9 6
3 4 7 10 7
4 10 4 8 3
ANSWER
• 1-1, 2-2, 3-3, 4-4,
• Zmin = Rs.23
Q 4. Assignment problem- Maximization case
• A company has a team of four salesman and there are four districts
where the company wants to start its business. After taking into
account the capabilities of salesmen and the nature of districts the
company estimates that the profit per day in rupees for each salesman
in each district is as below. Find the assignment of salesmen to various
districts which will yield maximum profit.
1 2 3 4
A 16 10 14 11
B 14 11 15 15
C 15 15 13 12
D 13 12 14 15
Solution
• As the problem is of maximization type we will first convert it into
minimization to be solved by Hungarian Method. This will be
achieved by subtracting all the elements of the matrix from the largest
element in it. Thus, subtracting all the elements from the largest
element i.e., 16, the matrix is converted as below:
• 1 2 3 4
A 0 6 2 5
B 2 5 1 1
C 1 1 3 4
D 3 4 2 1
Row reduction
1 2 3 4
A 0 6 2 5
B 1 4 0 0
C 0 0 2 3
D 2 3 1 0
Column reduction
• No change
1 2 3 4
A 0 6 2 5
B 1 4 0 0
C 0 0 2 3
D 2 3 1 0
Assignment
1 2 3 4
A 0 6 2 5
B 1 4 0 0
C 0 0 2 3
D 2 3 1 0
Check for optimality
• Here , no. of allocations = m x n
• Thus, 4=4x4
• As there is one assignment in each row and in each column, optimal
assignment can be made in the current solution. Assignment policy
shall be ,
⁼ A-1, B-3, C-2, D-4
⁼ 16 15 15 15
⁼ Maximum profit for day= Rs. 16+15+15+15 = Rs.61
Q5. Unbalance Assignment problem
Machine M1 M2 M3
Jobs
1 9 26 15
2 13 27 6
3 35 20 15
4 18 30 20
Machine M1 M2 M3 M4
Jobs
1 9 26 15 0
2 13 27 6 0
3 35 20 15 0
4 18 30 20 0
Row reduction
Machine M1 M2 M3 M4
Jobs
1 9 26 15 0
2 13 27 6 0
3 35 20 15 0
4 18 30 20 0
Column Reduction
Machine M1 M2 M3 M4
Jobs
1 0 6 9 0
2 4 7 0 0
3 26 0 9 0
4 9 10 14 0
• No. of assignment = mx n matrix
• i.e., 4= 4x4
⁼ 1-M1, 2-M3, 3-M2, 4-M4
⁼9 6 20 0
⁼ 35 Hrs
END
Q 8 Travelling salesmen problem
• Find the solution of the travelling salesman problem.
TO CITY
A B C D
A 4 9 5
FROM
CITY B 6 4 8
C 9 4 9
D 5 8 9
The salesman problem
• Assuming a salesman has to visit n cities. He wishes to start from a
particular city, visit each city once and return to his starting point. His
objectives is to select the sequence in which the cities are visited in
such a way that his total travelling cost or time is minimized.
• Conditions:
1. No city is to be visited twice before the tour of all cities is completed
2. Going to city i-i is not permitted
Solution- starting with row reduction
• The number of rows and columns are equal so the matrix is balanced.
• Subtract the minimum element in each row from all the elements in its
row.
TO CITY
A B C D
A 0 5 1
FROM
CITY B 2 0 4
C 5 0 4
D 0 3 4
Column reduction
• Subtract the minimum element in each row from all the elements in its
row.
TO CITY
A B C D
A 0 5 0
FROM
CITY B 2 0 3
C 5 0 3
D 0 3 4
• As the matrix is 4x4 but the total number of allocations is 3 thus the
optimal solution is not reached. Thus, we will solve to obtain optimal
solution
TO CITY
A B C D
A 0 5 1
FROM
CITY B 2 0 3
C 5 0 3
D 0 3 4
TO CITY
A B C D
A 0 5 0
FROM
CITY B 2 0 3
C 5 0 3
D 0 3 4
• By observing the above table A is visiting D and returing back fro =m
D but not visiting B & C , so in this case. So, the above solution is not
a solution to the travelling salesman problem as he visits each city
only once. So, the next best solution can be obtained by bringing the
minimum non-zero element.
TO CITY
A B C D
A 0 5 0
FROM
CITY B 2 0 3
C 5 0 3
D 0 3 4
• In the above table, no. of assignment =3 but no. of rows =4, which is
not equal, so the solution is not optimal. Thus we will update the
matrix: TO CITY
A B C D
A 0 5 0
FROM
CITY B 2 0 3
C 5 0 3
D 0 3 4
TO CITY
A B C D
A 0 8 0
FROM
CITY B 2 0 0
C 8 0 4
D 0 0 4
TO CITY
A B C D
A 0 8 0
FROM
CITY B 2 0 0
C 8 0 4
D 0 0 4
• By observing the above table A is visiting D and returing back fro =m
D but not visiting B & C , so in this case. So, the above solution is not
a solution to the travelling salesman problem as he visits each city
only once. So, the next best solution can be obtained by bringing the
minimum non-zero element.
TO CITY
A B C D
A 0 8 0
FROM
CITY B 2 0 0
C 8 0 4
D 0 0 4
• For the above table, the travelling salesman path will be
• A -→B→C→D→A
• Thus the condition is satisfied.
• The optimal solution can be:
• A -→B→C→D→A
• 4 + 4 +9 + 5
• 22 Rs
• END
UNIT-III
• Special Operation Research Techniques Decision
Theory and Decision tree
• Theory of games, Replacement Theory
• Queuing problems and models
What is Decision Theory?
• Decision theory provides managers a rational approach in dealing with
problems confronted with partial, imperfect or uncertain future
conditions.
• It is used when a manager has less information about certain
events, for e.g., a manager may approve substantial financial
investment decision with less than complete information. In such case
it become important to choose appropriate decision.
• Each decision has two parts- one is alternatives and other is state of
nature.
Decision Making Environments
• Decisions are made under four types of environments that differ
according to the degree of certainty. The degree of certainty may vary
from complete certainty to complete uncertainty. The region that lies
in between correspond to decision making under risk.
i. Decision making under conditions of certainty
ii. Decision making under conditions of uncertainty
iii. Decision making under conditions of risk
iv. Decision making under conditions of conflict
1. Decision Making under conditions of
certainty
• In this, only one state of nature exists for each alternative, i.e.,
there is complete certainty about the future.
• It is easy to analyse the situation and make good decision. Since
the decision-maker has perfect knowledge about the future outcomes,
he simply chooses the alternative having optimum payoff.
• For example, an ice-cream manufacturer has perfect knowledge
about increasing its production during summer season.
• Examples include cost-volume-profit analysis when information
about them is certainly and precisely known, linear programming
when resources required, resources available, cost or profit per unit of
the product are known with certainty.
2. Decision making under conditions of
uncertainty
• Here, more than one states of nature exist but the decision maker
lacks sufficient knowledge to allow him assign probabilities to the
various states of nature.
• For example, an ice-cream manufacturer is uncertain about the
demand of ice-cream during rainy season.
3. Decision making under conditions of risk
• Here also, more than one states of nature exist but the decision
maker has sufficient information to allow him probabilities to each
of these states.
• For example, an ice-cream manufacturer has sufficient information
that it will rain less during this monsoon season which will result in
sale of more ice-cream but he is still uncertain about the demand of
ice-cream during monsoon season, as some customers may prefer
buying ice-cream and some may not.
4. Decision making under conditions of
conflict
• Situations exist in which two (or more) opponents with conflicting
objectives try to make decisions with each trying to gain at the cost of
other. Examples include situations such as two players struggling
to win at chess, candidates fighting an election , two enemies
planning war tactics, firms struggling to maintain their market
shares, etc.
• These situations are different since the decision maker is working
against an intelligent opponent. They are called decision making under
conflict of under partial uncertainty. The theory governing these types
of decision problems is called theory of games
Steps in Decision Theory Approach
• The decision theory has four steps. We will discuss the same by taking
an example of manufacturing company-
1. List all the viable alternatives
2. Identify the expected future events
3. Construct a payoff table
4. Select optimum decision criterion
Step 1: List all viable alternatives
• For example , a manufacturing company has the following three
options to fulfil rising demand of extra products:
i. Expand the present plant
ii. Construct a new plant
iii. Subcontract production for extra demand
• These alternatives are termed as courses of actions or simply
actions or acts or strategies and are known to and under the control of
decision maker.
Step 2: Identify the expected future events
• First, its is possible to identify most of the events that can occur; the
difficulty is to identify which particular event will occur. These future
events (not under the control of decision maker) are termed as ‘states of
nature or outcomes’ in decision theory . Of course, out of this, only one of
the events will occur. For manufacturing co., the greatest uncertainty will be
about product demand. The future events related to the demand may be:
i. High demand
ii. Moderate demand
iii. Low demand
iv. No demand
Step 3: Construct a payoff table
• The decision maker now constructs a table representing profit, benefit,
etc., or conditional gain or conditional profit table for each possible
combination of alternative course of action and state of nature. Table
below represents 12 possible payoffs for the manufacturing company’s
expansion decision.
(present plant)
(new plant)
Step 4: Select optimum decision criterion
• Finally, the decision maker will choose criterion which results in
largest payoff. The criterion may be economic, quantitative or
qualitative (e.g., market share, profit, fragrance of perfume. etc)
Decision Maker under conditions of
Uncertainty
Under conditions on uncertainty, the decision maker has a
knowledge about the states of nature that happen but lacks the
knowledge about the probabilities of their occurrence. Situation like
launching a new product fall under this category. The insufficient data
lead to a more complex decision model and, perhaps , a less satisfactory
solution. However, one uses scientific methods to exploit the available
data to the fullest extent.
Under conditions of uncertainty, a few decision criteria are available
which could be of help to the decision maker and a choice among them
is determined by the company’s policy and attitude of the decision
maker.
Decision making under conditions of
uncertainty
• Decision criteria are adopted as follows:
1. Maximax (Criterion of optimism)
2. Maximin (Criterion of pessimism/ Wald criterion)
3. Minimax (Savage criterion/ regret)
4. Criterion of realism (Hurwicz criterion)
5. Criterion of rationality (Laplace criterion)
1. Maximax (Criterion of optimism)
• This criterion provides the decision maker with optimistic criterion.
• Decision maker finds the maximum possible payoff for each possible
alternative and then chooses the alternative with maximum payoff
within this group. The maximax payoff to the company in below
example is Rs.70000/-
2.Maximin Criterion or criterion of pessimism (Wald
criterion)
• In this the decision maker maximizes his minimum payoffs. He finds
first the minimum possible payoff for each alternative and then
chooses the alternative with maximum payoff within this group. The
maximin payoff to the company in below example is –Rs.10000/-
3. Minimax Regret Criterion (Savage
Criterion)
• The Savage criterion, proposed by Leonard Savage in 1951, is a decision-making
approach that focuses on minimizing regret (or opportunity loss).
• The minimax regret approach aims to minimize the worst-case regret associated with
making a decision worse than the optimal choice, given a specific state of nature.
• The basic steps involved in this are:
1. Determine the amount of regret corresponding to each event for every alternative.
The regret for jth event corresponding to ith alternative is given by ith regret =
(maximum payoff – ith payoff) for the jth event.
2. Determine the maximum regret amount for each alternative.
3. Choose the alternative which corresponds to the minimum of the above maximum
regrets.
Example-Minimax Regret Criterion (Savage Criterion)
4.Hurwicz Criterion (Criterion of realism)
Example- Hurwicz Criterion (Criterion of realism)
Example,
P= 0.8*50,000+ (1-0.8)* (-45000) = 31000/-
5.Laplace Criterion or Criterion of
Rationality (Bayes’ Criterion)
• This criterion is based upon what is known as the principle of
insufficient reason. Since the probabilities associated with the
occurrence of various events that are unknown , there is not enough
information to conclude that these probabilities will be different. This
criterion assigns equal probabilities to all events of each
alternative decision and selects the alternative associated with the
maximum expected payoff. Symbolically, if n denotes the number of
events and P’s denote the payoffs, then expected value for strategy,
say s1 is-
Example- Laplace Criterion
Example Page 720
Solution
For the given payoff matrix, the values corresponding to pessimistic, optimistic and equal
probability criteria are given below:
Table, below represents the regret for every event and for each alternative calculated
by the expression
Player H +1 -1 =0
A T -1 +1 =0
Note: if the matrix is given for Player A then, player A known as maximising player and player B
is known as minimising player.
Step 1: Calculations of Row Minima &
Column Minima
I II III Row Minimum
I -3 -2 6 -3
II 2 0 2 0 Maximin
Value (V)
III 5 -2 -4 -4
Column Maximum
5 0 6
Note: if the matrix is given for Player A then, player A known as maximising player and player B
is known as minimising player.
Step 1: Calculations of Row Minima &
Column Minima
I II III Row Minimum
I 3 -2 4 -2
II -1 4 2 -1 Maximin
Value (V)
III 2 2 6 2
Column Maximum
3 4 6
Minimax
Value (V)
• As there is no saddle point obtained , thus we will reduce the game by
Rule of Dominance.
• The rule of Dominance is given on next slide.
I II III Addition
I 3 -2 4 5
II -1 4 2 5
III 2 2 6 10
Addition 4 4 12
We can delete column III as it is dominating column on I. Since all the elements
In the third column are greater than or equal to the corresponding elements in
the first column. Therefore, column III is dominated by column I.
So , we can delete column III. So, the reduced pay-off matrix will be given by
In next slide.
Reduced matrix, column III deleted
I II
The following matrix is reduced
I 3 -2 to 3 X 2 matrix, , the same can be
solved by graphical method
II -1 4
III 2 2
3. Solve for Mixed Strategy
S.No Method Applicable To
1 Arithmetic 2 X 2 games
2 Algebraic method/ Graphical m X 2 and 2 X n games
method
3 Simplex Method/ Method of 3 X 3 or higher games
Matrices / Dominance
Arithmetic Method
• A 2 X 2, payoff matrix where there is no saddle point can be solved by
Analytical method, for example-
• Given the matrix:-
A1 4 -1 0
A2 -1 4 2
Solution
Q. Solve the following game
B1 B2
A1 -2 0
A2 3 -1
A3 -3 2
A4 5 -4
Solutions for 3x3 or higher games
• We two methods :
1. Solution by Linear Programming (Simplex)
2. Solution by method of matrices
Let the value of the game (to A) be V. We will
view the game from B’s point of view
• Thus, the solution for B’s original problem is obtained as –
• y1 = Y1 * V = 2/5 *2 = 4/5
• y2 = Y2* V= 1/10 * 2 = 1/5
• y3 = Y3* V = 0*2 = 0
• The Optimal strategies for the player A are obtained from the final
table of the above problem. This is given by duality rules:
• X1 = x1/ V , thus x1 = X1 * V
• x1 = X1 * V = 0*2 = 0
• x2 = X2 * V = 0*2 = 0
• x3 = X3 * V = 1/2*2 = 1
• Therefore, optimal strategy of player A (0,0,1)
• Therefore, optimal strategy of player B (4/5, 1/5, 0)
• Value of game , V= 2
Solution by
Method of
Matrices
• END
UNIT III
Replacement Model
INTRODUCTION
• The problem of replacement arises when any one of the components of
productive resources, such as machinery, building and men
deteriorates due to time or usage.
• The examples are:
(a) A machine, which is purchased and installed in a production system,
due to usage some of its components wear out and its efficiency is
reduced.
(b) A building in which production activities are carried out, may leave
cracks in walls, roof etc., and needs repair.
(c) A worker, when he is young, will work efficiently, as the time passes
becomes old and his work efficiency falls down and after some time he
will become unable to work.
Loss of efficiency after maintenance
Loss of efficiency after maintenance
• Once the maintenance is attended, the efficiency may not be regained
to previous level but a bit less than that of previous level.
• For example, if the operating efficiency is 95 percent and due to
deterioration, the efficiency reduces to 90 percent, after maintenance,
it may regain to the level of 93 percent. .
• Once again due to usage the efficiency falls down and the maintenance
is to be attended. This is an ongoing business of the management.
• After some time, the efficiency reduces to such a level, the
maintenance cost will become very high and due to less efficiency
the unit production cost will be very high and this is the time the
management has to think of replacing the facility.
Objective
• The problem of replacement is to decide the best policy in determining
a time at which the replacement is most economical, instead of
continuing at an increased cost.
• The main objective of replacement is to direct the organization in
maximizing its profit (or minimising the cost).
Decision taken under Replacement
1. We may decide whether to wait for complete failure of the item
(which may result in some losses due to deterioration or to replace
earlier at the expense of higher cost of the item,
2. The expensive item may be considered individually to decide
whether we should replace now or, if not, when it should be
reconsidered for replacement,
3. Whether the item is to be replaced by similar type of item or by
different type for example item with latest technology.
• The problem of replacement is encountered in the case of both men
and machines. Using probability, it is possible to estimate the chance
of death or failure at various ages. The main objective of replacement
is to help the organization for maximizing its profit or to minimize the
cost.
FAILURE MECHANISIM OF ITEMS
• In industrial maintenance term Failure is classified as below:
Gradual failure
• In this class as the life of the machine decreases due to continuous
usage or due to wear and tear of components of the facility, its
efficiency deteriorates due to which the management can experience:
a) Progressive Increase in maintenance expenditure or operating
costs,
b) Decreased productivity of the equipment and
c) Decrease in the value of the equipment i.e. resale value of the
equipment/facility decreases. Examples of this category are:
Automobiles, Machine tools, etc.
Sudden Failure
• In this case, the items ultimately fail after a period of time.
• The life of the equipment cannot be predicted and is some sort of
random variable.
• Further, sudden failure are of three types:
I. Progressive
II. Retrogressive
III. Random
I. Progressive failure
• In this case probability of failure
increases with the increase in life
of an item. The best example is
electrical bulbs and computer
components. It can be shown as
in figure
II. Retrogressive failure
Some items will have higher probability
of failure in the beginning of their life,
and as the time passes chances of failure
becomes less. That is the ability of the
item to survive in the initial period of life
increases its expected life. The examples
are newly installed machines in production
systems, new vehicles, and infant baby
(The probability of survival is very less in
infant age, but once the baby get
accustomed to nature, the probability of
failure decreases). This can be shown as in
figure.
III. Random failure
• In this class, constant
probability of failure is
associated with items that fail
from random causes such as
physical shocks, not related
to age. In such cases all items
fail before aging has any
effect. This can be shown as in
figure. Example is vacuum
tubes.
The Bathtub Curve or machine life curve
• Machine or equipment or facility life can be classified into three
stages.
• They are
1. Infant stage,
2. Youth stage or Youth phase and
3. Old age stage or Old age phase.
a) Infant Stage or Phase
• This is also known as early failure stage. When new equipment is
purchased and installed in the existing system, it has to cope up with the
operating efficiency of the existing system. Also it has to accustom to
operating skill of the operator. Perhaps when a new vehicle is purchased,
due to mechanical conditions of the machine and the operating skill of the
person, the vehicle may give trouble in the early stages. The owner may
have to visit the mechanic many times. It is like a baby, which has come out
from mother's womb. The baby until birth, it was in a controlled atmosphere
and when the birth takes place, it has to get accustom to outside atmosphere.
Hence it cries. Sometimes there is a danger of failure of life. Hence we see
more failures in infant stage. Once an age of 10 to 15 years is reached, the
death rate or failure rates will reduce. In this stage the safety of machine is
covered by the guarantee period given by the manufacturer. This is
represented by a curve on the left hand side of the Bathtub curve.
b) Youth stage or random failure stage
• In this stage the equipment or machine is accustomed to the
system in which it is installed and works at designed operating
efficiency. Regular maintenance such as overhauling, oiling,
greasing, cleaning keep the machine working. Now and then due to
wear and tear of components or heavy load or electrical voltage
fluctuations, breakdown may occur, which can be taken care of by
repair maintenance. The machine or equipment works for longer
periods without any trouble. This is like youth stage in human life
that is full of vigor and energy and the person will be healthy and work
for longer periods without any diseases. This is shown as a horizontal
line in bathtub curve. Here repair maintenance; preventive
maintenance or other maintenance techniques are used to keep the
machine or equipment in working condition.
c) Old age stage of Old age phase or wear out
failures
• Due to continuous usage and age of the machine, there will be
wear and tear of various components. Not only this, during youth
stage, some of the components might have been replaced due to wear
and tear. These replaced components may not suit well in the system if
they are not from original manufacturer. As the manufacturers are
changing the design, one has to go for spares available in the market.
All this may reduce to operating efficiency of the machine or
equipment and the management has to face frequent failures. This is
very similar to old age in human life. Due to old age, people will get
diseases and old age weakness and many a time they have to go to
hospitals for treatment before the life fails. This is shown on the right
side of the bath- tub curve. Here one will think of replacement of the
equipment or machine.
Summary of three stages of maintenance
Cost Associated with maintenance
• Our main aim is to find optimal replacement period so as to
minimize the maintenance cost. Hence we are very much interested
in the various cost associated with maintenance. Various costs to be
discussed are:
a) Purchase cost or Capital cost: ( C )
b) Salvage value / Scrap value / Resale value / Depreciation: (S)
c) Running costs including maintenance, Repair and Operating costs:
(a) Purchase cost or Capital cost: ( C )
• This cost is independent of the age of the machine or usage of the
machine.
• This is incurred at the beginning of the life of the machine, i.e. at
the time of purchasing the machine or equipment.
• But the interest on the invested money is an important factor to be
considered.
(b) Salvage value / Scrap value / Resale value
(S)
• As the age of the machine increases, the resale value decreases as
its operating efficiency decreases and the maintenance costs
increases.
• It depends on the operating conditions of the machine and life of the
machine.
(c) Running costs/maintenance/Repair/
Operating costs
• These costs are the functions of age of the machine and usage of
the machine.
• As the usage increases or the age increases, due to wear and tear, many
components fail to work and they are to be replaced.
• As the age increases, failures also increase and the maintenance
costs goes on increasing.
• At some period the maintenance costs are so high, which will indicate
that the replacement of the machine or equipment is essential.
Types of Replacement Problems
I. Replacement Problem when value of money is ignored or does not
change with time
II. Replacement Problem when value of money changes with time
III. Replacement of equipment that fails suddenly
Replacement Policy for Solving Replacement
Problems
• Rule: If the running or maintenance or operating cost of the
machine for the next year is more than the average annual cost of
the selected year, then replace the machine at the end of selected
year.
• Some related terms:
1. C: Capital cost of machine
2. S: Scrap value or resale value of machine
3. N: Number of years the machine would be in use.
4. F(t): Maintenance cost or Running Cost
5. A(n): Average annual cost
6. Total cost= Capital cost – Scrap value + Maintenance cost OR
Depreciation cost + maintenance cost
7. Depreciation cost= Capital cost – scrap value
Type I : Replacement Problem when value of
money is ignored or does not change with time-
Example 1
• Question: The cost of machine is Rs. 61000/- & its scrap value is
Rs.1000. The maintenance cost found from the past experience are as
follows:
Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Maintenance
cost in Rs.
1000 2500 4000 6000 9000 12000 16000 20000
Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Running 2500 3000 4000 5000 6500 8000 10000
cost
• Find the optimal replacement period if the capital is worth 10% per
annum and has no salvage value.
• Discount rate (V):
• 𝑉 = (1 + 𝑟)−1 ,(where ‘r’ is called rate of interest and V is called discount rate)
• Discount factor, 𝑉 𝑛−1 , here n= no. of years, then the weighted. avg. cost of all previous
‘n’ year:
W(n) = C + ∑ Rn 𝑉 𝑛−1 - Sn 𝑉 𝑛
n=1
∑ 𝑉 𝑛−1
n=1
• If the rate of interest is 10% per year, when should the machine be
replaced.
• Discount rate (V):
• 𝑉 = (1 + 𝑟)−1 ,(where ‘r’ is called rate of interest and V is called discount rate)
• Discount factor, 𝑉 𝑛−1 , here n= no. of years, then the weighted. avg. cost of all previous
‘n’ year:
W(n) = C + ∑ Rn 𝑉 𝑛−1 - Sn 𝑉 𝑛
n=1
∑ 𝑉 𝑛−1
n=1
2 1400 0.9091 1272.7 2472.7 2666 0.8264 2203.34 1.9091 6269.4 3286.95
3 1600 0.8264 1322.34 3795.08 2000 0.75134 1502.67 2.7356 8292.52 3031.33
4 1800 0.75134 1352.4 5147.48 1500 0.6830 1024.56 3.4869 10122.96 2903.14
5 2000 0.6830 1366.01 6573.49 1000 0.6209 620.9 4.1699 11892.57 2852.01
6 2400 0.6209 1490.19 8003.68 600 0.5645 338.7 4.7908 13664.96 2852.33
7 3000 0.5645 1693.38 9697.06 600 0.51319 307.91 5.3552 15389.25 2873.64
Answer
• We observe that weighted average cost is minimum at the end of 5th year.
• Weighted average cost at 5th year = 2852.01
• Running cost for 6th year = 2400
• 2400 > 2852.01 (False)
• Thus, we can choose next minimum weighted cost, which is at 6th year.
• Again, weighted average cost for 6th year= 2852.33
• Running cost for 7th year = 3000
• 3000> 2852.33 (True)
• Hence, wecan replace the machine at the end of 6th year
Replacement of equipment that fails suddenly
i. Individual replacement policy- under this policy, an item is replaced
immediately after it fails
ii. Group replacement policy- Under this policy, we take decisions as
to when all the items must be replaced, replaced irrespective of the
fact that items have failed or not, with a provision that if any item
fails before the optimal time, it may be individually replaced.
• We have optimal policy-
• Group replacement must be made at the end of tth period if the cost of
individual replacement for the tth period is greater than the average
cost per period through the end of the ‘t’ period
Type III- Replacement Problem equipment
fails suddenly (group replacement cost)
• The following mortality rate have been observed for a certain type of light
bulbs.
Week 1 2 3 4 5
Percent failing
by the end of
10% 25% 50% 80% 100%
week
• There are 1000 bulbs in use and its costs Rs.2 to replace an individual bulb,
which has burnt out. If all the bulbs were replaced simultaneously, it would
cost 50 paise per bulb. It is proposed to replace all bulbs at fixed intervals,
whether or not they have burnt out and to continue replacing burnt out bulbs
as they fail. At what intervals should all the bulbs be replaced?
Step 1: Let Pi be the probability that a bulb, which
was new when placed in position for use, fails
during ith week of its life
• P1 = 10/100 = 0.1 Week 1 2 3 4 5
• P2 = 25/100 = 0.25-0.1 = 0.15 Percent 10% 25% 50% 80% 100%
failing by
• P3 = 50/100 = 0.5 – 0.25 = 0.25 the end of (10+15) (25+25) (50+30) (80+20)
• P4 = 80/100 = 0.8-0.5 = 0.3 week
Jobs 1 2 3 ……………… n
Machine A A1 A2 A3 ……………… An
Machine B B1 B2 B3 ……………… Bn
Task A B C D E F G H I
Machine 2 5 4 9 6 8 7 5 4
I
Machine 6 8 7 4 3 9 3 8 11
II
Solution
Below is the sequence of the tasks for machine I and machine II
A C I B H F D G E
Machine I Machine
→ II
Finding the total elapsed time and idle time
for each machine
JOBS MACHINE I MACHINE II
In Out In Out
A 0 2 2 8
C 2 6 8 15
I 6 10 15 26
B 10 15 26 34
H 15 20 34 42
F 20 28 42 51
D 28 37 51 55
G 37 44 55 58
E 44 50 58 61
Answer
Total elapsed time = 61 hours
Idle time for machine I= 61-50 = 11hours
Idle time for machine II= (61-61)+2 = 2 hours
Type II: Problems with n jobs through 3
machine
• Q. Determine the sequence that will minimize the total elapsed time
also find idle time of all machine.
Job 1 2 3 4 5 6
Machine 3 12 5 2 9 11
A
Machine 8 6 4 6 3 1
B
Machine 13 14 9 12 8 13
C
Convert the problem into two machine problem
and then solve using Johnson’s Algorithm
Step 1: find the minimum processing time for the first and last machine and
maximum processing time for the second machine, i.e., find Min (Ai,Ci) and
Max (Bi) [i= 1,2,3,…….n]
Step 2: Check the following inequality (Min Ai ≥ Max Bi ) or (Min Ci ≥ Max
Bi )
Step 3: If none of the inequalities in step 2 are satisfied , this method cannot
be applied
Step 4: If atleast one of the inequalities in step 2 are satisfied, we defined two
machines G and H, such that the processing time on G and H are given by,
Gi = Ai + Bi i= 1,2,3,……n
Hi = Bi + Ci
Step 5 : For the converted machines G and H , we obtained the optimum
sequence using two machine algorithm.
Step 1: find the minimum processing time for the first and last
machine and maximum processing time for the second
machine, i.e., find Min (Ai,Ci) and Max (Bi) [i=
1,2,3,…….n]
4 3 1 6 2 5
Machine G → Machine H
Here, we will find the total estimate time for A, B and C
• To minimum total elapsed time and idle time for machine A, B and C-
Jobs Machine A Machine B Machine C
Sequence IN OUT IN OUT IN OUT
4 0 2 2 (+6) 8 8(+12) 20
3 2 (+5) 7 8 (+4) 12 20 (+9) 29
1 7 (+3) 10 12(+8) 20 29 (+13) 42
6 10 (+11) 21 21 (+1) 22 42 (+13) 55
2 21 (+12) 33 33 (+6) 39 55 (+14) 69
5 33 (+9) 42 42 (+3) 45 69 (+8) 77
1 3 2 4
Machine G Machine H
Find the total elapse and idle time
Machine A Machine B Machine C Machine D Machine C
JOBS
IN OUT IN OUT IN OUT IN OUT IN OUT
Job 1 Sequence A B C D E
of
machine 3 4 2 6 2
time
Job 2 Sequence B C A D E
of
machine 5 4 3 2 6
time
Steps for 2 jobs m Machine
• Each machine can perform only one job at a time. The objective is to
determine the optimal sequence of processing the jobs so as to
minimize the total elapsed time.
• The optimal sequence in this case can be obtained by making use of
the graph.
• The procedure is given in the following steps:
• Step 1: First draw a set of axes, where the horizontal axis represents
processing time on Job 1 and the vertical axis represents processing
time on job 2.
• Step 2: Mark the processing time for job 1 and job 2 on the horizontal
and vertical lines respectively, according to given order of machines.
• Step 3: Construct various blocks starting from the origin (starting
point), by pairing the same machines until the end point.
• Step 4: Draw the line starting from the origin to the end point by
moving horizontally, vertically and diagonally along a line which
makes an angle of 45 degree with the horizontal line. The horizontal
segment of this line indicates that the first job is under process with
seconds job idle similarly, the vertical line indicate that the second job
is under process while first is idle. The diagonal segment of the line
shows that the jobs are under process simultaneously.
• Step 5: An optimal path is the one that minimizes the idle time for both
the jobs. Thus we must choose the path on with diagonal movement is
maximum.
• Step 6: The total elapsed time is obtained by adding the idle time for
either job to the processing time for that job.
UNIT IV
• Job Sequencing Models and solutions
• Network scheduling by PERT & CPM
(Introduction and application)
• Network analysis
• Time estimation
• Probabilistic estimation
Network scheduling by PERT & CPM
(Introduction and application)
Project- An Introduction
• A project defines a combination of interrelated activities which must be
executed in a certain order before the entire task can be completed.
• let’s consider a simple project that involves the construction of a house. The
project can be broken down into the following tasks:
1.Designing the house (Task A)
2.Getting the necessary permits (Task B)
3.Laying the foundation (Task C)
4.Building the main structure (Task D)
5.Installing the roof (Task E)
6.Finishing the interior (Task F)
7.Landscaping (Task G)
Basic requirements of each project
• Each project, whether big or small, has three basic requirements:
i. It should be completed without any delay
ii. It should use available man power and other resources as small as possible
iii. It should involve a small investment as possible
Phases of Project Management :
1. Project planning
2. Project scheduling
3. Project controlling
➢ Out of these three phases, the first two are accomplished before the
start of the actual project. The third phase comes into operation during
the execution of the project. It highlights the bottlenecks during
execution of the project and spells out measures to remove bottlenecks
& complete the project in time.
➢The network techniques of PERT and CPM are valuable during all the
three phases of project management.
Project Planning
• Planning – planning phase is started by splitting the total project into small
projects-→Activities →Analyse by dept. or section.
• Project planning is an important phase during which are set the plans and
strategies of project execution, keeping in mind the politics, procedures and
rules of the organisation. It has two important aspects – identification of
the activities (jobs & tasks) to be performed and estimation of the
required resources.
• In planning we:
1. Divide the project into distinct activities
2. Estimate time requirement for activities
3. Establish precedence relationship
4. Construct arrow diagram
Examples of project planning
• Resources of many kinds and are classified as:
1. Manpower resources
2. Equipment (machinery) resources
3. Financial resources
4. Material resources
5. Time & space resources
Project Scheduling
• Scheduling- Objective of the scheduling phase is to prepare a time
chart showing the start and finish times for each activity as well as
its relationship to other activities of the project.
• In other words, scheduling is the preparation of the time table of the
implementation of the activities and computation of resources required
at different stages of time.
• In scheduling we:
• Determine the start and end time for activity
• Determine the critical path on which the activity required attention
• Determine the slack and float for non-critical path.
Project Controlling
• Controlling phase is the follow up of the planning and scheduling
phases.
• While planning and scheduling are undertaken before the actual
project starts, the controlling phase is undertaken during the actual
execution of the project.
• In controlling we:
1. Make the periodical progress report
2. Review the progress
3. Analyse the status of the project
Techniques of project Management
i. PERT- Project evaluation and review technique
ii. CPM- Critical Path Method
Representation of a network nodes and
activity
Network diagram
• It is the graphical representation of logically and sequentially
connected arrows and modes representing activities and events of a
project.
1. Activity: Activity – Any individual operation or jobs or task. It
represent some action and is a time consuming effort necessary to
complete a particular part of overall project.
Types of activity
1. Preceding activity: Activity that must be accomplished before a
given event can occur.
2. Succeeding activity: Activity that cannot be accomplish until an
event has occurred.
3. Concurrent activity: Activity taking place at the same time or in the
same location.
4. Dummy activity: Activity which neither consume time nor resources
but are used simply to represent a connection or a link between the
events are known as dummies. It is shown in a network by dotted
lines.
• Predecessor
• Successor
B is successor to A
• Concurrent A is predecessor to B
B & C are known as concurrent
• Dummy activity as its starting point is
same
2. Event – The beginning and end point of an activity are called events
or nodes.
• Merge
• Burst
• Merge & burst
Common point of
Two or more events
Dummy activity
• In the below network diagram activity D is successor to activity B and
C , that means activity D cannot start until the completion of B & C, as
C has no direct connection to activity D we will introduce a dummy
activity D1(x). Dummy activity is used when we need to assume an
activity , here in this case it is D1(x):
• 3. Sequencing – maintaining the precedence relationship
Numbering the events (Fulkerson’s rule)
1.The starting event, the event having no predecessor activity, is numbered as
1.
2.Other events are numbered in increasing order from left to right.
3.If there are more than one initial event found in the diagram, they are to be
numbered from top to bottom in increasing order.
4.No two events can have the same number in any case.
5.All the activities emerging out from an event in the diagram are overseen. If
one or more initial events having no predecessor activities are found,
number these events according to rule 1.
6.Follow rule 2 for newly numbered events and so on until the event having
no activity emerging out from it is found. That event is numbered as the
highest one in the diagram
Common Errors in Drawing Networks
• 1. Dangling- To disconnect an activity before the completion of all
activities in a network diagram is known as dangling
• Looping (or cycling)- Drawing an endless loop in a network is known
as an error of looping.
• Redundancy- Unnecessarily inserting the dummy activity in a network
logic is known as the error of redundancy.
Network Diagram Construction
• Rules for drawing Network:
1. Each activity is represented by one and only one arrow in the
network.
2. No two activities can be identified by the same start and end events.
3. In order to ensure the correct precedence relationship in the arrow
diagram following questions must be checked:
i. What activity must be completed immediately before a particular
activity starts?
ii. What activities follow this?
iii. What activities must be performed concurrently with this?
Suggestions
1. Time flows left to right
2. Arrows should be kept straight and not curved
3. Use dummies freely in rough draft but final network should not have
any redundant dummies
4. Arrows should not cross each other where crossing cannot be
avoided bridging should be done
5. In a network diagram there should be only one initial event and one
end event
Network Diagram Construction
• Q1.Draw the network diagram for the project whose activities and
their precedence relationship are as given below:
Activity Predecessor Activity
A -
B A
C A
D B
E C
F D,E
Q2.Draw the network diagram for the project
whose activities and their precedence relationship
are as given below:
Activity Predecessor Activity
A -
B -
C A
D A
E B
F C
G D,E
• Q3. A project consists of a series of tasks labelled A,B,……..H,I with
the following relationships (w < x, y; means x and y cannot start
until w is completed; x, y < w means w cannot start until both x
and y are completed) with this notation construct the network
diagram having the following constraints.
• A< D,E; B,D < F; C<G ; B<H ; F,G ,I
Solution
ACTIVITY PREDECESSOR ACTIVITY
D A
E A
F B, D
G C
H B
I F,G
Raw diagram
Final
Q4. Draw the network diagram for the following
using AOA (Activity on Arrow) & AON (Activity
on Node)
ACTIVITY PREDECESSOR
A -
B -
C -
D A,B
E B
F B,C
Q5. Draw the network diagram for the following
using AOA (Activity on Arrow) & AON (Activity
on Node)
ACTIVITY PREDECESSOR ACTIVITY
A -
B A
C A
D B
E B,C
F C
G D,E,F
Draw a network for the following project:
2-3 8 2 10 8 16 6 0 0 10 2
2-4 10 2 12 2 12 0 0 0 12 2
3-5 6 10 16 16 22 6 0 -6~0 16 16
3-6 3 10 13 22 25 12 0 -6~0 13 16
4-5 3 12 15 19 22 7 1 1 16 12
4-7 7 12 19 12 19 0 0 0 19 12
5-8 5 16 21 22 27 6 6 0 27 22
6-8 2 13 15 25 27 12 12 0 27 25
7-8 8 19 27 19 27 0 0 0 27 19
Critical Path
• Ej- earliest time for head event
• Li- latest time for tail event
Q.A project schedule has the following
characteristics
Activi 1-2 1-3 2-4 3-4 3-5 4-9 5-6 5-7 6-8 7-8 8-10 9-10
ty
Time 4 1 1 1 6 5 4 8 1 2 5 7
(Days)