Binomial distribution -STATISTICAL method by S. P. Gupta
Binomial distribution -STATISTICAL method by S. P. Gupta
Т T
T H
H T
, H H
The probabilities corresponding to these results are :
> ЕҢ DENT. HH ге
u as 4
4 2р M
g? 24р р?
These are the terms of the binomial (44-р) because
(4+РУ#=4°--24р-Ер*
‚ In a special case where p=q=4, we have
@+@#=4+4+. "
Similarly, if three coins 4, В and C are tossed the following are the
8 possible outcomes and the probabilities corresponding to these results
afe:
і ABC АВС АВС АВС АВС АВС АВС АВС
"TIT ТТН THT HIT THH НТН HHT ННН
Aw a Nu ay EA, ee: ч.
т h ; Г ^x Y
ар Gp qp qp Kr y= GD аа DS
These are the terms of the binomial (q--p)?
(4-Ер)3=48--34°р--3ар°-Ер8 " "
where p=q=}, we have
[-HP-EHEHRH.
These probabilities can be calculated by direct count also, For
example, the chance of getting 3 tails in a single toss of 3 coins is}. The
chance of getting 2 tails (combined with one head) is 2, the chance of
. getting | tail (combined with 2 heads) is $ and the chance of getting no
tails is 5. In general in л tosses of a coin the probabilities of the various
possible events, i.e., (obtaining 0, 1, 2......... п heads) are given by the
successive terms of the binomial expansion of (g+-p)", which is
(q-I-p)^ —4" +" Cig p+" Cog” p+... "C,qnp* 4... .
p^.
These terms may be listed in the form of a probability distribution
table as follows :
PROBABILITY TABLE FOR NUMBER OF HEADS
US
E Number of heads Probability
x P
Е x 0 q
1 "Ciqh*p
ралы 23 nC,qn-3p?
-
nC,qn-3p*
n C,qn-rpr
= са
-=
; THEORETICAL DISTRIBUTIONS
А-74-
we obtain probability of
Since by expanding the binomial " (q--p)* is naturally called the
bilit y distr ibuti om
v 0, 1, 2.........7 heads the proba
the binomial distribution. The
binomial probability distribution or simply
‚ general form of the distribution is
PTS P(r)—-"C,q'-tp'
exactly r successes.
where P(r) denotes the probability of getting
and non-occur-
* Thus for an event R with probability of occurrence p number. of
of the
rénce q, if п trials are made probability distribution It is custom ary to
occurrences of A will be as set in the above table.
non-oc curren ce the
call the occurrence of an event the ‘success’ and
‘failure’.
. f we want to obtain the probable frequencies of the various out-
be used :
comes in N sets of n trials, the following expression shall
Ма+р)*
N(q- p — N(q"-" Cg p+ "Cag" p+ c EPCq7tp! ... +P")
The frequencies obtained by the above expansion are known as
expected or theoretical frequencies. On the other hand, the frequencies
experiments are called actual or observed
- .actually obtained by making the observed
frequencies. Generally, there is some difference between
and expected frequencies but the difference become s smalle r and smaller
; '
as N increases.
It should be noted that the variate in the binomial distribution is a
takes
discrete one and not continuous, i.e., the number of successes (x)
only integral values.
Obtaining Coefficients of the Binomial
obtaining coefficients and exponents for any power of the bino-
w^
> For
mial, the following rules may be remembered. To find the terms of the
expansion of (94-Р)".
yok. The first term is q".
‚2. The second term is nq™ ?p. L-
= 3. In each succeeding term the power of gis reduced by 1 and the
power of p is increased by 1.
ww. 4. The coefficient of any term is found by multiplying the coeffi-
cient of the preceding term by the power of q in that preceding term, and
dividing the product so obtained by one more than the power of p in
that preceding term. ч
» When we expand (q+7)", we get E,
` (а+р)"=4"%--"С,"-1р--"Сд%р?-+-.........р"
where 1, *C;, "C,......... are called the binomial coefficients. Thus in the
expansion of (q--p)* we will have
49-р)°--4°--54%р--104%р°--104р3--59р*+-р°
and the coefficients will be 1,5, 10, 10, 5,1.
From the above binomial expansion, the following general relation-
ships should be noted : А = SOR
hel. The number of terms in a binomial expansion is always n--1l.
+
THEORETICAL DISTRIBUTIONS" . › А-25
0
mus y
345
P-0-8
E Ри к. xpi)
0 q^ 0xq^
1 "Cg" : EXT p
s RU -272
P л\п—1) n-ap?
2x1 qup
n
Н
р"
o TENE
пр"
THEORETICAL DISTRIBUTIONS A2.7
г В UNE LLEx.p(x)
The arithmetic mean by definition is — X(px)
3x p(2) 0g ongn-2p
2 0— guages... np
—ngqnp--n(n—1) 204 "m пр"
Taking пр common
=nplg" + (n— 1)gn7p4-......-pn1)
-—np(gq4-p) [since the expansion in brackets is the
expansion of the binomial (q--p)"-]
=np(1)"=np C^ 4p—1]
Thus Zx.p(x)—np ('." the sum of probabilities1)
Thus the mean of binomial distribution is np.
The standard deviation of binomial distribution is 4/npq.
Proof. с? or us—vs—v;? (where v; and уг are moments about origin, zero)
и={х°.р(х)}
уу=пр
(02)
l
aie +Еп°рк
апп
1g tp З 002) gy
Ч.лар"
=nplar2+2(n—1)gr-tpt4 3070019 cap, see npn-t
Breaking second, third and following terms into parts, we get
о=\/ пра
n=500, p—0'1 and 4=0`9
в=\/ 500х01х0'9 —67 *
(Б) Moment coefficient of skewness, i.e., Үл
n-2Vv А
— azp _ (09-01) _ 08.
КОСУ СЮРТЕ Sale
A-210 THEORETICAL DISTRIBU TIONS
Since yı is more than zero the distribution is positively skewed. Howe ver the
skewness is yery moderate.
Moment coefficient of Kurtosis
onus "m
igp
£73 c4 npo
OPE"
zu 1—6(0 (0:9)
Ы —34-046
=3+ _,.,
449 =3`01
123—301 —3— 4-0701
Since ү, isp ositive the distribution is platykurtic
(q--p)*—q'--
6dp 6g*p*-- 20g?p*--15g? p*--6qp*-i-p*
Illustration 4. The incidenee of occupational disease in an industry
the workmen have a 20% chance of suffering from it. What is such that
is the probability that out
of six workmen 4 or more will contact disease ?
Solution. The probability of aman suffering from disease
or
20
VEN RC
The probability of a man not suffering from disease,
ie,
q-1—l-e 4.
5
Hence the probability of 6men, 5 men, 4 men, etc., sufferi
ng from disease аге
в
terms in the binomial expansion er( +)
(4-Ер)*=4°--6°р-1-6др?-}-204°р--15д°р*-4-бар5-Ер®
The probability of 4or more, i.e., 4, 5 or 6 success
es is
NG) HD)
7 15g!p*--6gp5— p*
-15x16 | 6x4
15625 + 15625 "15625
==__265_ . 53
15625 ^ 312
Fitting a Binomial Distribution
When a binomial distribution is to be
fitted to observe data the
following procedure is adopted :
1. Determine the values of
the other'can be found out by the simple
(1—p). When p and q are equal the
relationship р=(1—4), and q =
distribution is symmetrical, for p
and q may be interchanged without altering the value
consequently terms equidistant from the two of any term, and
If p and q are unequal, ends of the series are equal.
the distribution is skew. If р is less than $, the
hen p is more than § the distri-
2. Expand the binomial (g--p)*. The power n is equal to one less
than the number:of terms in the expanded
coins are tossed (n—2) there will binomial. Thus when two
be three terms in the binomial.
Similarly when four coins are tossed
(n=4) there will be five terms, and
$0 on.
3. Multiply each term of the expanded
frequency), in order to obtain the expected frequ binomial by N (the total
ency in each category.
THEORETICAL DISTRIBUTIONS A-211
x f d fd fat
и 0 2 —4 ES КУ "a2 | t
1 6 -3 —18 54
2 30 7 —60 = 120
3 52 —1 —52 52
4 67 0 0 0
5 56 1 56 56
6 32 2 64 128
7 10 3 30 90
8 1 4 4 16
& SE QE
ARE X ums THEORETICAL DISTRIBUTIONS
; aa
£ =, /38 (316 y
256 (25 À
. -4/ri4-0001-4/7137-1462, ©
Illustration 6. The following data show the number of seeds germinating out of
10 on damp filter for 80 set of seeds. Fit a binomial distribution to this data :
X: 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Ef СКУ Жш. y ЫЙЫ иеш 0 0 0
e Ч " (B Sc., Agra, 1973)
" Solution. FITTING BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION
x y fX
0 Wifes 226
} Э 8
= =. 3
Ter
P.
3 12 366
4 8 32
5 6 30
6 0 0
VA 0 0
8 0 0
9 0 0
10 0 0
а ECT
—80 EfX—174
X=ug MA
go 72195
i 174
= @ But теап=пр=-ыу=
Dyў p
174
300 =0°2175
_„.
LR q= 1—p=0'7825,
.Hence the binomial distribution to be fitted to the data is
. = А 80(0778254-02175)1* -
, The theoretical frequencies are th
30078250215)"andaretabulated below: — si
(6705 іп the expansion 0 f
i i
UF
z х Lv Theoretical frequencies
COR EN Tal a Aree So
T ud А 80x(7825)— 69
1% 80x 10(7825)*(21 75)1—
191
a 80% 45(/7825)*(2175)2— 240
3 80x 120(°7825)7(-2175)3=17'8 »
“4 80x 21007825)*(2175)4—
PX.
7
80x 252(7825)5(2175)5— 8'629
80Х210(°7825)4(°2175)в—= 07
: s, 80x 120(7825)*(2175)— 01
80% 45(°7825)2(2175)в—
G
Э» 80x 10(7825)(21759— 00 00
[Q0 ^ BOX(2075)- 00
‘ *» Total
otal =%
80 9
ў Illustration 7
Twelve 7.
appearing was considered to be dice were thrown 4096 ti E Ea h 4, 5, or6 spot
a success,
late the theoretical frequencies for 0, 1, 2 tswhixo Mr: em wa: a ilu Calcu-
zi мое. i
Notes.Solution
apes , ThereThere areare 4,4,096 trials.
i Since
ince either
еї 4, 5 ог 6isi conside red’ a success
ideré *
THEORETICAL DISTRIBUTIONS - T ПА
Р The terms of the binomial (4-Ер)% will give the probabilities of 0, 1, 2...
successes. — Ф
Hee ^C n=12, q—À, and p-i. "
By expanding 4096 (3-1)
we get frequencies corresponding to 0, 1, 2... -.12 successes.
1., 12 , 66 , 20 , 495 792 , 924 , 792 1 495
4096( то + 4996 ^ 4096 ^ 4096 1 4096 4096 4096 7 4095 + 4096
20. 66 , 12 , +d
+ 2096 + 4096 7 4096 +0)
fo will denote observed frequencies and f, expected frequencies. The observed
frequencies cannot be in fraction but thewhole expected frequencies may be in fractions.
number.
However, they may be approximated to the
The results can be tabulated as follows :
Number of Theoretical Number of Theoretical
# successes frequencies successes frequencies
0 1 7 792
12 8 495
1
2 66 9 220
, 10 *66
3 220
495 1 12
4 "
* 5 792 12
924