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2025 12 FEB GEFS

The GEFS model forecasts for the Philippines indicate that during Week 1 (Feb 12-18, 2025), the Northeast Monsoon will bring increased rainfall of 40-80mm in most areas, with high probabilities of exceeding 25mm and 50mm in various regions. In Week 2 (Feb 19-25, 2025), the Northeast Monsoon continues, with expected rainfall increases of 10-40mm and moderate probabilities of exceeding 100mm in Eastern Visayas. Additionally, temperatures are expected to be slightly warmer than average in most areas during Week 1 and near to slightly cooler in Luzon during Week 2.

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24 views

2025 12 FEB GEFS

The GEFS model forecasts for the Philippines indicate that during Week 1 (Feb 12-18, 2025), the Northeast Monsoon will bring increased rainfall of 40-80mm in most areas, with high probabilities of exceeding 25mm and 50mm in various regions. In Week 2 (Feb 19-25, 2025), the Northeast Monsoon continues, with expected rainfall increases of 10-40mm and moderate probabilities of exceeding 100mm in Eastern Visayas. Additionally, temperatures are expected to be slightly warmer than average in most areas during Week 1 and near to slightly cooler in Luzon during Week 2.

Uploaded by

raregala.whcm
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© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Week 1 & Week 2 Forecast for the

Philippines using GEFS Model


GEFS Week-1 Wind Forecasts:
Week 1: Feb 12-18, 2025

Northeast Monsoon affecting Northern Luzon while Easterlies affecting the rest of the country during the
forecast period
Precipitation Anomaly and Exceedance Probability > 25/50 mm Very high probability
High Probability
Moderate Probability
Low Probability
Week 1: Feb 12-18, 2025

Probability to Exceed 25mm Probability to Exceed 50mm


Increase of rainfall of 40-80mm is expected in • High to very high over most parts of the country; •High to very high over most of Northern Luzon, Aurora,
• Moderate to high over Cavite, Batangas and Quezon, Bicol Region, Eastern Visayas, and Eastern
most parts of the country expect for 20-
MIMAROPA. Mindanao;
40mm decrease in rainfall in Caraga and •Moderate to high over the rest of Northern Luzon, Central
Misamis Oriental. Luzon, Rizal, Laguna, and the rest of Visayas and Mindanao;
•Low to moderate over the rest of Southern Luzon.
Very high probability
Exceedance Probability > 100/150/200 mm High Probability
Moderate Probability
Low Probability
Week 1: Feb 12-18, 2025

Probability to Exceed 100mm


Probability to Exceed 150mm Probability to Exceed 200mm
•Moderate to high over the eastern sections of Cagayan,
•Low to moderate over the eastern sections of •Low across the country
Isabela, and Quirino, Aurora, Eastern Visaya,s and Surigao
Luzon and Visayas;
Provinces;
•Low over the rest of the country;
•Low to moderate over the rest of the country.
GEFS Week-2 Wind Forecasts:
Week 2: Feb 19-25, 2025

Northeast Monsoon affecting Northern and Central Luzon while Easterlies affecting the rest of
the country during the forecast period
Precipitation Anomaly and Exceedance Probability > 25/50 mm Very high probability
High Probability
Moderate Probability
Low Probability
Week 2: Feb 19-25, 2025

Increase of rainfall of 10-40mm is expected Probability to Exceed 25mm Probability to Exceed 50mm
in most parts of the country. • High to very high over most parts over the eastern parts •Moderate to high over Eastern Luzon,, Oriental Mindoro,
of the country; Panay Isl., northern part of Negros Occidental, Central and
• Moderate to high over the rest of the country; Eastern Visayas, and most parts of Mindanao;
•Low to moderate over the rest of the country.
Exceedance Probability > 100/150/200 mm Very high probability
High Probability
Moderate Probability
Low Probability
Week 2: Feb 19-25, 2025

Probability to Exceed 150mm Probability to Exceed 200mm


Probability to Exceed 100mm •Low across the country.
•Moderate over Eastern Visayas; •Low across the country.
•Low to moderate over the rest of the eastern part of
the country;
•Low over the rest of the country.
GEFS Week-1 & 2 Forecasts: T2m Anomaly

2m Temperature Week 2: Feb 19-25, 2025


2m Temperature Week 1: Feb 12-18, 2025
Near to slightly cooler than average surface air temperature will
Slightly warmer to warmer than average surface air temperature will likely
likely be experienced in Luzon while near to slightly warmer than
be experienced in most parts of the country.
average temperature is expected in Visayas and Mindanao.

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