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2025 07 FEB GEFS

The GEFS model forecasts for the Philippines indicate that during Week 1 (Feb 07-13, 2025), the Northeast Monsoon will affect Northern Luzon, with expected rainfall increases of 60-100mm across the country, particularly high in Batanes and Eastern Luzon. In Week 2 (Feb 14-20, 2025), the Northeast Monsoon continues to influence Northern Luzon, with rainfall increases of 10-40mm expected in Eastern Luzon and the Visayas, while temperatures are predicted to be near average in Northern Luzon and slightly warmer elsewhere. Overall, the forecast highlights significant precipitation probabilities and temperature anomalies for both weeks.

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24 views

2025 07 FEB GEFS

The GEFS model forecasts for the Philippines indicate that during Week 1 (Feb 07-13, 2025), the Northeast Monsoon will affect Northern Luzon, with expected rainfall increases of 60-100mm across the country, particularly high in Batanes and Eastern Luzon. In Week 2 (Feb 14-20, 2025), the Northeast Monsoon continues to influence Northern Luzon, with rainfall increases of 10-40mm expected in Eastern Luzon and the Visayas, while temperatures are predicted to be near average in Northern Luzon and slightly warmer elsewhere. Overall, the forecast highlights significant precipitation probabilities and temperature anomalies for both weeks.

Uploaded by

raregala.whcm
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Week 1 & Week 2 Forecast for the

Philippines using GEFS Model


GEFS Week-1 Wind Forecasts:
Week 1: Feb 07-13, 2025

Northeast Monsoon affecting Extreme Northern Luzon while Easterlies affecting the rest of the country
during the forecast period
Precipitation Anomaly and Exceedance Probability > 25/50 mm Very high probability
High Probability
Moderate Probability
Low Probability
Week 1: Feb 07-13, 2025

Probability to Exceed 25mm Probability to Exceed 50mm


Increase of rainfall of 60-100mm is expected • High to very high over Batanes, Apayao, most of •High to very high over the eastern part of Cagayan and
across the country Eastern and Southern Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao; Isabela, Quezon, Bicol Region, Panay Island, Eastern
Moderate to high over the rest of Luzon; Visayas, and Eastern Mindanao;
•Moderate to high chance over Batanes, the rest of
Cagayan and Isabela, the northern part of Apayao,
Aurora, Bulacan, NCR, the rest of Southern Luzon, and
the rest of Visayas and Mindanao;`
Very high probability
Exceedance Probability > 100/150/200 mm High Probability
Moderate Probability
Low Probability
Week 1: Feb 07-13, 2025

Probability to Exceed 100mm Probability to Exceed 150mm Probability to Exceed 200mm


•Moderate to high over the easternmost part of Isabela, •Moderate to high over Quezon, Bicol Region •Low to moderate over Quezon, Bicol Region and
Quezon, Rizal, Laguna, Bicol Region, most of Mindoro and Samar Provinces; Samar Province and the eastern sections of
Provinces, eastern part of Panay, northern pat of Negros •Low to moderate over the rest of Southern Visayas and Mindanao;
Occidental, and Eastern Mindanao; Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao; •Low over the rest of the country
•Low to moderate over the rest of Southern Luzon, Visayas, •Low over the rest of Luzon;
and Mindanao;
•Low over the rest of Luzon.
GEFS Week-2 Wind Forecasts:
Week 2: Feb 14-20, 2025

Northeast Monsoon affecting Northern Luzon while Easterlies affecting the rest of the country
during the forecast period
Precipitation Anomaly and Exceedance Probability > 25/50 mm Very high probability
High Probability
Moderate Probability
Low Probability
Week 2: Feb 14-20, 2025

Probability to Exceed 50mm


Increase of rainfall of 10-40mm is expected Probability to Exceed 25mm
•Moderate to high over the southeastern part of Cagayan,
over the eastern part of Luzon and most of • High to very high over Eastern Luzon and Eastern Visayas;
northeastern part of Isabela, Bicol Region, northern part of
• Moderate to high over CAR, Cagayan Valley Region,
Visayas. Panay, Eastern Visayas and Eastern Mindanao;
Quezon, Bicol Region, Oriental Mindoro, Palawan and the
•Low to moderate over the rest of the country.
rest of Visayas and Mindanao.
Exceedance Probability > 100/150/200 mm Very high probability
High Probability
Moderate Probability
Low Probability
Week 2: Feb 14-20, 2025

Probability to Exceed 100mm Probability to Exceed 150mm Probability to Exceed 200mm


•Moderate over Samar Provinces; •Low across the country. •Low across the country.
•Low to moderate over the rest of the country.
GEFS Week-1 & 2 Forecasts: T2m Anomaly

2m Temperature Week 1: Feb 07-13, 2025 2m Temperature Week 2: Feb 14-20, 2025
Near to slightly cooler than average surface air temperature will likely be Near to slightly warmer than average surface air temperature will
experienced over most parts of Northern Luzon while near to slightly likely be experienced in most parts of the country.
warmer than average temperature is expected for the rest of the country.

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