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Exercise4

The document outlines Exercise 4 for the course PHYS-C6370, focusing on technology diffusion processes related to wind energy. Students are required to derive a specific equation, apply a diffusion model to provided data, and forecast wind energy saturation in Denmark and the EU28. Additionally, they must analyze the limitations of the diffusion model within a word limit.

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5 views

Exercise4

The document outlines Exercise 4 for the course PHYS-C6370, focusing on technology diffusion processes related to wind energy. Students are required to derive a specific equation, apply a diffusion model to provided data, and forecast wind energy saturation in Denmark and the EU28. Additionally, they must analyze the limitations of the diffusion model within a word limit.

Uploaded by

anhtri.journal
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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PHYS-C6370 Fundamentals of New Energy Sources (fall 2017)

Exercise 4

Submit your answers by Monday 9.10.2017 at 14:15. You should return your solutions via
MyCourses. The main assistant of this exercise is Alpi Rimppi.

1. Demonstration

Technology diffusion process is described by the equation

𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑
= 𝛽𝛽 ∙ 𝑓𝑓 ∙ [1 − 𝑓𝑓], 𝑓𝑓 = 𝑓𝑓(𝑡𝑡) (1)
𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑

where 𝑓𝑓 is the fraction of cumulative installed wind power with respect to a saturation level,
and 𝛽𝛽 is the penetration speed of the technology (%/year). The solution can be written as:

1
𝑓𝑓 = (2)
1+ 𝑒𝑒 −𝛽𝛽(𝑡𝑡−𝑡𝑡0 )+𝛼𝛼

a) Derive equation (2)


b) Apply the technology diffusion model to the data in Excel file
“Wind_Denmark_2013.xls” and make a forecast for the diffusion of wind energy in
Denmark. When will wind power reach saturation level in Denmark?

2. Home assignment

Let us define 𝑡𝑡50% as the time it takes for a technology to realize half of its potential:

𝑓𝑓(𝑡𝑡50% ) = 0.5 𝑓𝑓(𝑡𝑡 → ∞) (3)

Express 𝑡𝑡50% with respect to parameters 𝛼𝛼 and 𝛽𝛽.

3. Home assignment

a) Make a forecast for installed wind power capacity in the EU28 countries. To do this, fit
a technology diffusion curve to the data in Excel file “Wind_EU_2013.xls” using the
least squares method. Calculate 𝛼𝛼, 𝛽𝛽 and 𝑡𝑡50% from the curve.
b) According to the diffusion model, how much installed wind power will there be in the
EU28 in 2025?
c) Estimate the weaknesses and limitations of the diffusion model (max 100 words)

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