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The Basic Practice of Statistics
SEVENTH EDITION

The Basic Practice

of Statistics
DAVID S. MOORE • WILLIAM I. NOTZ • MICHAEL A. FLIGNER
Purdue University The Ohio State University University of California at Santa Cruz
Publisher: Terri Ward
Senior Acquisitions Editor: Karen Carson
Marketing Manager: Cara LeClair
Development Editors: Leslie Lahr and Jorge Amaral
Associate Editor: Marie Dripchak
Executive Media Editor: Laura Judge
Media Editor: Catriona Kaplan
Associate Media Editor: Liam Ferguson
Editorial Assistant: Victoria Garvey
Marketing Assistant: Bailey James
Photo Editor: Cecilia Varas
Photo Researcher: Eileen Liang
Cover and Text Designer: Vicki Tomaselli
Managing Editor: Lisa Kinne
Senior Project Manager: Denise Showers, Aptara®, Inc.
Illustrations and Composition: Aptara®, Inc.
Production Manager: Julia DeRosa
Printing and Binding: RR Donnelley
Cover Credit: © SoberP/istockphoto

Library of Congress Control Number: 2014950586

Student Edition Hardcover (packaged with EESEE/CrunchIt! access card):
ISBN-13: 978-1-4641-4253-6
ISBN-10: 1-4641-4253-X
Student Edition Loose-leaf (packaged with EESEE/CrunchIt! access card):
ISBN-13: 978-1-4641-7990-7
ISBN-10: 1-4641-7990-5
Instructor Complimentary Copy:
ISBN-13: 978-1-4641-7988-4
ISBN-10: 1-4641-7988-3
© 2015, 2013, 2010, 2007 by W. H. Freeman and Company
All rights reserved
Printed in the United States of America
First printing
W. H. Freeman and Company
41 Madison Avenue
New York, NY 10010
Houndmills, Basingstoke RG21 6XS, England
www.whfreeman.com
 BRIEF CONTENTS

CHAPTER 0 Getting Started 1

PART I EXPLORING DATA 11

Exploring Data: Variables and Distributions
CHAPTER 1 Picturing Distributions with Graphs 13
CHAPTER 2 Describing Distributions with Numbers 47
CHAPTER 3 The Normal Distributions 75
Exploring Data: Relationships
CHAPTER 4 Scatterplots and Correlation 101
CHAPTER 5 Regression 127
CHAPTER 6 Two-Way Tables* 163
CHAPTER 7 Exploring Data: Part I Review 179

PART II PRODUCING DATA 201

CHAPTER 8 Producing Data: Sampling 203
CHAPTER 9 Producing Data: Experiments 227
CHAPTER 10 Data Ethics* 253
CHAPTER 11 Producing Data: Part II Review 267

PART III FROM DATA PRODUCTION

TO INFERENCE 275
CHAPTER 12 Introducing Probability 277
CHAPTER 13 General Rules of Probability* 303
CHAPTER 14 Binomial Distributions* 327
CHAPTER 15 Sampling Distributions 345
CHAPTER 16 Confidence Intervals: The Basics 373

*Starred material is not required for later parts of the text.

v
vi BR I EF C O NT ENT S

CHAPTER 17 Tests of Significance: The Basics 391

CHAPTER 18 Inference in Practice 415
CHAPTER 19 From Data Production to Inference:
Part III Review 439

PART IV INFERENCE ABOUT VARIABLES 453

Quantitative Response Variable
CHAPTER 20 Inference about a Population Mean 453
CHAPTER 21 Comparing Two Means 485
Categorical Response Variable
CHAPTER 22 Inference about a Population Proportion 517
CHAPTER 23 Comparing Two Proportions 539
CHAPTER 24 Inference about Variables: Part IV Review 559

PART V INFERENCE ABOUT

RELATIONSHIPS 575
CHAPTER 25 Two Categorical Variables:
The Chi-Square Test 577
CHAPTER 26 Inference for Regression 609
CHAPTER 27 One-Way Analysis of Variance:
Comparing Several Means 645

PART VI OPTIONAL COMPANION CHAPTERS

(AVAILABLE ONLINE)

CHAPTER 28 Nonparametric Tests 28-1

CHAPTER 29 Multiple Regression 29-1
CHAPTER 30 More about Analysis of Variance 30-1
CHAPTER 31 Statistical Process Control 31-1
 CONTENTS

To the Instructor: About This Book xi 3.4 The 68–95–99.7 rule 82

Acknowledgments xx 3.5 The standard Normal distribution 85
Media and Supplements xxii 3.6 Finding Normal proportions 86
About the Authors xxv 3.7 Using the standard Normal table 88
3.8 Finding a value given a proportion 91
CHAPTER 0 Getting Started 1
0.1 Where the data comes from matters 2 CHAPTER 4 Scatterplots and Correlation 101
0.2 Always look at the data 3 4.1 Explanatory and response variables 101
0.3 Variation is everywhere 5 4.2 Displaying relationships: scatterplots 103
0.4 What lies ahead in this book 7 4.3 Interpreting scatterplots 105
4.4 Adding categorical variables to scatterplots 109
PART I EXPLORING DATA 11 4.5 Measuring linear association: correlation 111
4.6 Facts about correlation 113
CHAPTER 1 Picturing Distributions with
Graphs 13 CHAPTER 5 Regression 127
1.1 Individuals and variables 13 5.1 Regression lines 127
1.2 Categorical variables: pie charts and bar 5.2 The least-squares regression line 131
graphs 16 5.3 Using technology 132
1.3 Quantitative variables: histograms 21 5.4 Facts about least-squares regression 135
1.4 Interpreting histograms 24 5.5 Residuals 138
1.5 Quantitative variables: stemplots 29 5.6 Influential observations 143
1.6 Time plots 32 5.7 Cautions about correlation and regression 146
5.8 Association does not imply causation 148
CHAPTER 2 Describing Distributions with
Numbers 47 CHAPTER 6 Two-Way Tables* 163
2.1 Measuring center: the mean 48 6.1 Marginal distributions 164
2.2 Measuring center: the median 49 6.2 Conditional distributions 166
2.3 Comparing the mean and the median 50 6.3 Simpson’s paradox 171
2.4 Measuring variability: the quartiles 51
2.5 The five-number summary and boxplots 53
2.6 Spotting suspected outliers and modified CHAPTER 7 Exploring Data: Part I Review 179
boxplots* 55 Part I Summary 181
2.7 Measuring variability: the standard deviation 57 Test Yourself 183
2.8 Choosing measures of center and variability 59 Supplementary Exercises 195
2.9 Using technology 61
2.10 Organizing a statistical problem 63
PART II PRODUCING DATA 201
CHAPTER 3 The Normal Distributions 75
3.1 Density curves 75 CHAPTER 8 Producing Data: Sampling 203
3.2 Describing density curves 78 8.1 Population versus sample 204
3.3 Normal distributions 80 8.2 How to sample badly 206

*Starred material is not required for later parts of the text.

vii
 viii CO NTENTS

8.3 Simple random samples 207 13.5 Independence again 313

8.4 Inference about the population 211 13.6 Tree diagrams 314
8.5 Other sampling designs 212 13.7 Bayes’ rule* (available online)
8.6 Cautions about sample surveys 214
8.7 The impact of technology 216
CHAPTER 14 Binomial Distributions* 327
14.1 The binomial setting and binomial
CHAPTER 9 Producing Data: Experiments 227 distributions 327
9.1 Observation versus experiment 227 14.2 Binomial distributions in statistical
9.2 Subjects, factors, and treatments 230 sampling 328
9.3 How to experiment badly 233 14.3 Binomial probabilities 330
9.4 Randomized comparative experiments 234 14.4 Using technology 332
9.5 The logic of randomized comparative 14.5 Binomial mean and standard
experiments 237 deviation 334
9.6 Cautions about experimentation 239 14.6 The Normal approximation to binomial
9.7 Matched pairs and other block designs 241 distributions 335

CHAPTER 10 Data Ethics* 253 CHAPTER 15 Sampling Distributions 345

10.1 Institutional review boards 254 15.1 Parameters and statistics 346
10.2 Informed consent 256 15.2 Statistical estimation and the law of large
10.3 Confidentiality 258 numbers 347
10.4 Clinical trials 260 15.3 Sampling distributions 350
10.5 Behavioral and social science 15.4 The sampling distribution of x 352
experiments 261 15.5 The central limit theorem 355
15.6 Sampling distributions and statistical
significance 361
CHAPTER 11 Producing Data: Part II Review 267
Part II Summary 268
CHAPTER 16 Confidence Intervals:
Test Yourself 269
The Basics 373
Supplementary Exercises 272
16.1 The reasoning of statistical estimation 374
16.2 Margin of error and confidence level 376
PART III FROM DATA PRODUCTION TO 16.3 Confidence intervals for a population
INFERENCE 275 mean 379
16.4 How confidence intervals behave 383
CHAPTER 12 Introducing Probability 275
12.1 The idea of probability 278 CHAPTER 17 Tests of Significance:
12.2 The search for randomness* 280 The Basics 391
12.3 Probability models 281 17.1 The reasoning of tests of significance 392
12.4 Probability rules 283 17.2 Stating hypotheses 394
12.5 Finite and discrete probability models 286 17.3 P-value and statistical significance 396
12.6 Continuous probability models 289 17.4 Tests for a population mean 400
12.7 Random variables 293 17.5 Significance from a table* 404
12.8 Personal probability* 294 17.6 Resampling: significance from a
simulation* 406

CHAPTER 13 General Rules of Probability* 303

13.1 Independence and the multiplication rule 304 CHAPTER 18 Inference in Practice 415
13.2 The general addition rule 307 18.1 Conditions for inference in practice 416
13.3 Conditional probability 309 18.2 Cautions about confidence intervals 419
13.4 The general multiplication rule 311 18.3 Cautions about significance tests 421
 CON T ENT S ix

18.4 Planning studies: sample size for confidence CHAPTER 23 Comparing Two Proportions 539
intervals 424 23.1 Two-sample problems: proportions 539
18.5 Planning studies: the power of a statistical 23.2 The sampling distribution of a difference
test* 426 between proportions 541
23.3 Large-sample confidence intervals for
comparing proportions 542
CHAPTER 19 From Data Production to Inference:
23.4 Using technology 543
Part III Review 439 23.5 Significance tests for comparing
Part III Summary 441
proportions 545
Test Yourself 443
23.6 Plus four confidence intervals for comparing
Supplementary Exercises 450
proportions* 549

PART IV INFERENCE ABOUT VARIABLES 453

CHAPTER 24 Inference about Variables:
Part IV Review 559
CHAPTER 20 Inference about a Population
Part IV Summary 562
Mean 455 Test Yourself 564
20.1 Conditions for inference about a Supplementary Exercises 571
mean 455
20.2 The t distributions 456
20.3 The one-sample t confidence PART V INFERENCE ABOUT
interval 458 RELATIONSHIPS 575
20.4 The one-sample t test 461
20.5 Using technology 464
20.6 Matched pairs t procedures 467 CHAPTER 25 Two Categorical Variables:
20.7 Robustness of t procedures 469 The Chi-Square Test 577
20.8 Resampling and standard errors* 472 25.1 Two-way tables 577
25.2 The problem of multiple
comparisons 580
CHAPTER 21 Comparing Two Means 485 25.3 Expected counts in two-way tables 581
21.1 Two-sample problems 485 25.4 The chi-square test statistic 583
21.2 Comparing two population means 487 25.5 Cell counts required for the
21.3 Two-sample t procedures 489 chi-square test 584
21.4 Using technology 494 25.6 Using technology 585
21.5 Robustness again 497 25.7 Uses of the chi-square test: independence
21.6 Details of the t approximation* 499 and homogeneity 589
21.7 Avoid the pooled two-sample t 25.8 The chi-square distributions 593
procedures* 501 25.9 The chi-square test for goodness
21.8 Avoid inference about standard of fit* 595
deviations* 501
21.9 Permutation tests* 502
CHAPTER 26 Inference for Regression 609
26.1 Conditions for regression inference 611
CHAPTER 22 Inference about a Population 26.2 Estimating the parameters 612
Proportion 517 26.3 Using technology 615
22.1 The sample proportion p̂ 518 26.4 Testing the hypothesis of no linear
22.2 Large-sample confidence intervals for a relationship 619
proportion 520 26.5 Testing lack of correlation 620
22.3 Choosing the sample size 523 26.6 Confidence intervals for the regression
22.4 Significance tests for a proportion 525 slope 622
22.5 Plus four confidence intervals for a 26.7 Inference about prediction 624
proportion* 528 26.8 Checking the conditions for inference 628
 x CO NTENTS

CHAPTER 27 One-Way Analysis of Variance: CHAPTER 29 Multiple Regression 29-1

Comparing Several Means 645 29.1 Parallel regression lines 29-2
27.1 Comparing several means 647 29.2 Estimating parameters 29-5
27.2 The analysis of variance F test 648 29.3 Using technology 29-10
27.3 Using technology 650 29.4 Inference for multiple regression 29-13
27.4 The idea of analysis of variance 653 29.5 Interaction 29-22
27.5 Conditions for ANOVA 656 29.6 The general multiple linear regression
27.6 F distributions and degrees of freedom 659 model 29-28
27.7 Some details of ANOVA* 661 29.7 The woes of regression coefficients 29-34
29.8 A case study for multiple regression 29-36
Notes and Data Sources 677 29.9 Inference for regression parameters 29-48
Tables 697 29.10 Checking the conditions for
TABLE A Standard normal cumulative proportions 698 inference 29-53
TABLE B Random digits 700
TABLE C t distribution critical values 701
TABLE D Chi-square distribution critical values 702 CHAPTER 30 More about Analysis of
TABLE E Critical values of the correlation r 703 Variance 30-1
Answers to Odd-numbered Exercises 705 30.1 Beyond one-way ANOVA 30-1
Index 759 30.2 Follow-up analysis: Tukey pairwise multiple
comparisons 30-6
30.3 Follow-up analysis: contrasts* 30-10
PART VI OPTIONAL COMPANION CHAPTERS 30.4 Two-way ANOVA: conditions, main effects,
and interaction 30-13
(AVAILABLE ONLINE)
30.5 Inference for two-way ANOVA 30-20
30.6 Some details of two-way ANOVA* 30-28
CHAPTER 28 Nonparametric Tests 28-1
28.1 Comparing two samples: the Wilcoxon rank
sum test 28-2 CHAPTER 31 Statistical Process Control 31-1
28.2 The Normal approximation for W 28-6 31.1 Processes 31-2
28.3 Using technology 28-8 31.2 Describing processes 31-2
28.4 What hypotheses does Wilcoxon test? 28-10 31.3 The idea of statistical process
28.5 Dealing with ties in rank tests 28-11 control 31-6
28.6 Matched pairs: the Wilcoxon signed 31.4 x charts for process monitoring 31-7
rank test 28-16 31.5 s charts for process monitoring 31-13
28.7 The Normal approximation for W+ 28-18 31.6 Using control charts 31-19
28.8 Dealing with ties in the signed rank 31.7 Setting up control charts 31-22
test 28-20 31.8 Comments on statistical control 31-28
28.9 Comparing several samples: the 31.9 Don’t confuse control with
Kruskal–Wallis test 28-23 capability 31-30
28.10 Hypotheses and conditions for the 31.10 Control charts for sample
Kruskal–Wallis test 28-24 proportions 31-32
28.11 The Kruskal–Wallis test statistic 28-24 31.11 Control limits for p charts 31-33
 TO THE INSTRUCTOR: About This Book

W
elcome to the seventh edition of The Basic Practice of Statistics. As the name
suggests, this text provides an introduction to the practice of statistics that
aims to equip students to carry out common statistical procedures and to
follow statistical reasoning in their fields of study and in their future employment.
The Basic Practice of Statistics is designed to be accessible to college and university
students with limited quantitative background—just “algebra” in the sense of being
able to read and use simple equations. It is usable with almost any level of technology
for calculating and graphing—from a $15 “two-variable statistics” calculator through a
graphing calculator or spreadsheet program through full statistical software. Of course,
graphs and calculations are less tedious with good technology, so we recommend mak-
ing available to your students the most effective technology that circumstances permit.
Despite the lower mathematical level, The Basic Practice of Statistics is designed
to reflect the actual practice of statistics, where data analysis and design of data
production join with probability-based inference to form a coherent science of data.
There are good pedagogical reasons for beginning with data analysis (Chapters 1 to
7), then moving to data production (Chapters 8 to 11), and then to probability and
inference (Chapters 12 to 27). In studying data analysis, students learn useful skills
immediately and get over some of their fear of statistics. Data analysis is a neces-
sary preliminary to inference in practice, because inference requires clean data.
Designed data production is the surest foundation for inference, and the deliberate
use of chance in random sampling and randomized comparative experiments
motivates the study of probability in a course that emphasizes data-oriented statis-
tics. The Basic Practice of Statistics gives a full presentation of basic probability and
inference (16 of the 27 chapters) but places it in the context of statistics as a whole.

Guiding Principles and the GAISE Guidelines

The Basic Practice of Statistics is based on three principles: balanced content, experi-
ence with data, and the importance of ideas. These principles are widely accepted
by statisticians concerned about teaching and are directly connected to and re-
flected by the themes of the College Report of the Guidelines in Assessment and
Instruction for Statistics Education (GAISE) Project.
The GAISE Guidelines include six recommendations for the introductory sta-
tistics course. The content, coverage, and features of The Basic Practice of Statistics
are closely aligned to these recommendations:
1. Emphasize statistical literacy and develop statistical thinking. The intent of The
Basic Practice of Statistics is to be modern and accessible. The exposition is straight-
forward and concentrates on major ideas and skills. One principle of writing for be-
ginners is not to try to tell your students everything you know. Another principle is
to offer frequent stopping points, marking off digestible bites of material. Statistical
literacy is promoted throughout The Basic Practice of Statistics in the many examples
and exercises drawn from the popular press and from many fields of study. Statisti-
cal thinking is promoted in examples and exercises that give enough background to
allow students to consider the meaning of their calculations. Exercises often ask for
conclusions that are more than a number (or “reject H0”). Some exercises require
judgment in addition to right-or-wrong calculations and conclusions. Statistics, more
xi
xii T O THE I NS T R U C T O R ■ About This Book

than mathematics, depends on judgment for effective use. The Basic Practice of Statistics
begins to develop students’ judgment about statistical studies.
2. Use real data. The study of statistics is supposed to help students work with data
in their varied academic disciplines and in their unpredictable later employment.
Students learn to work with data by working with data. The Basic Practice of Statistics
is full of data from many fields of study and from everyday life. Data are more than
mere numbers—they are numbers with a context that should play a role in making
sense of the numbers and in stating conclusions. Examples and exercises in The Basic
Practice of Statistics, though intended for beginners, use real data and give enough
background to allow students to consider the meaning of their calculations.
3. Stress conceptual understanding rather than mere knowledge of procedures.
A first course in statistics introduces many skills, from making a stemplot and cal-
culating a correlation to choosing and carrying out a significance test. In practice
(even if not always in the course), calculations and graphs are automated. Moreover,
anyone who makes serious use of statistics will need some specific procedures not
taught in their college statistics course. The Basic Practice of Statistics therefore tries to
make clear the larger patterns and big ideas of statistics, not in the abstract, but in
the context of learning specific skills and working with specific data. Many of the big
ideas are summarized in graphical outlines. Three of the most useful appear inside the
front cover. Formulas without guiding principles do students little good once the final
exam is past, so it is worth the time to slow down a bit and explain the ideas.
4. Foster active learning in the classroom. Fostering active learning is the busi-
ness of the teacher, though an emphasis on working with data helps. To this end,
we have created interactive applets to our specifications and made them available
online. These are designed primarily to help in learning statistics rather than in
doing statistics. We suggest using selected applets for classroom demonstrations
even if you do not ask students to work with them. The Correlation and Regression,
Confidence Intervals, and P-value of a Test of Significance applets, for example, convey
core ideas more clearly than any amount of chalk and talk.
We also provide web exercises at the end of each chapter. Our intent is to take advan-
tage of the fact that most undergraduates are “web savvy.” These exercises require stu-
dents to search the web for either data or statistical examples and then evaluate what they
find. Teachers can use these as classroom activities or assign them as homework projects.
5. Use technology for developing conceptual understanding and analyzing
data. Automating calculations increases students’ ability to complete problems, re-
duces their frustration, and helps them concentrate on ideas and problem recogni-
tion rather than mechanics. At a minimum, students should have a “two-variable
statistics” calculator with functions for correlation and the least-squares regression
line as well as for the mean and standard deviation.
Many instructors will take advantage of more elaborate technology, as ASA/
MAA and GAISE recommend. And many students who don’t use technology in
their college statistics course will find themselves using (for example) Excel on the
job. The Basic Practice of Statistics does not assume or require use of software except
in Part V, where the work is otherwise too tedious. It does accommodate software
use and tries to convince students that they are gaining knowledge that will enable
them to read and use output from almost any source. There are regular “Using
Technology” sections throughout the text. Each of these sections displays and com-
ments on output from the same three technologies, representing graphing calcula-
tors (the Texas Instruments TI-83 or TI-84), spreadsheets (Microsoft Excel), and
statistical software (JMP, Minitab, and CrunchIt!). The output always concerns
one of the main teaching examples, so that students can compare text and output.
 TO TH E IN STRUCTOR ■ About This Book xiii

6. Use assessments to improve and evaluate student learning. Within chapters,

a few “Apply Your Knowledge” exercises follow each new idea or skill for a quick
check of basic mastery—and also to mark off digestible bites of material. Each of
the first four parts of the book ends with a review chapter that includes a point-by-
point outline of skills learned, problems students can use to test themselves, and
several supplementary exercises. (Instructors can choose to cover any or none of
the chapters in Part V, so each of these chapters includes a skills outline.) The re-
view chapters present supplemental exercises without the “I just studied that” con-
text, thus asking for another level of learning. We think it is helpful to assign some
supplemental exercises. Many instructors will find that the review chapters appear
at the right points for pre-examination review. The “Test Yourself” questions can
be used by students to review, self-assess, and prepare for such an examination.
In addition, assessment materials in the form of a test bank and quizzes are avail-
able online.

What’s New?
The new edition of The Basic Practice of Statistics brings many new examples and
exercises. There are new data sets from a variety of sources, including finance
(the relationship between positive articles in the media and the Dow Jones Indus-
trial Average the following week), health (the relationship between salt intake and
percent body fat of children), psychology (the relationship between one’s attitude
about a presidential candidate and how trustworthy the candidate’s face appears
to be), medicine (the relationship between playing video games and surgical skills),
and the environment (global temperatures). Popular examples and exercises such
as the Florida manatee regression example return, many with updated data. These
are just a few of a large number of new data settings in this edition.
A new edition is also an opportunity to introduce new features and polish the
exposition in ways intended to help students learn. Here are some of the changes:
■ Each chapter now contains references to online resources to enhance student
learning. These include video clips, whiteboard lectures, and technology supplements.
■ We have added an introductory chapter, “Getting Started,” that instructors
may wish to assign to students the first day of classes. This chapter provides an
overview of statistical thinking and real examples where the use of statistics can
provide valuable insight. It expands on material that was previously included in
the Preface, adding motivating examples and exercises.
■ Chapter 7 includes descriptions of additional data sets available online that instructors
can use for student projects and more extensive data analysis. Along with the
description of the data sets, we provide a few suggestions for how they might be used.
■ We have added some basic material on resampling and permutation tests in
optional sections at the end of Chapters 15, 17, 20, and 21. We hope that
instructors who want to introduce students to resampling methods will find this
new material useful.
■ The essay on data ethics is now Chapter 10, and follows the format of other
chapters in the book.
■ We have added output from JMP to the “Using Technology” sections.
■ The content in Parts I and II has been rewritten to accommodate instructors who
prefer to teach data production (Part II) before data exploration (Part I). Instructors
can teach these parts in either order while maintaining the continuity of the material.
■ Sections are now numbered for easier reference.
 FEATURES OF THE BASIC PRACTICE OF STATISTICS, Seventh Edition

In this chapter
we cover…
In this chapter we cover... 2.1 Measuring center: the mean

E
2.2 Measuring center: the median
ach chapter opener offers a brief overview of where 2.3 Comparing the mean and the

the chapter is heading, often with reference to pre- median

2.4 Measuring variability:

FREE144_SE_CH02_047-074.indd Page 64 29/10/14 7:48 AM f-w-148
vious chapters, and includes a section outline of the
/208/WHF00270/work/indd/CH02 the quartiles
major topics that will be covered. 2.5 The five-number summary
and boxplots

2.6 Spotting suspected outliers

and modified boxplots*
EX AMPLE 2.9 Comparing Graduation Rates 2.7 Measuring variability: the
STATE: Federal law requires all states in the United States to use a common com- standard deviation
4step putation of on-time high school graduation rates beginning with the 2010–11 school
year. Previously, states chose one of several computation methods that gave answers 2.8 Choosing measures of center
that could differ by more than 10%. This common computation allows for meaningful and variability
DATA

comparison of graduation rates between the states.

We know from Table 1.1 (page 22) that the on-time high school graduation rates 2.9 Using technology
GRADRATE
varied from 59% in the District of Columbia to 88% in Iowa. The U.S. Census Bureau
divides the 50 states and the District of Columbia into four geographical regions: the 2.10 Organizing a statistical
Northeast (NE), Midwest (MW), South (S), and West (W). The region for each state is
included in Table 1.1. Do the states in the four regions of the country display distinct problem
distributions of graduation rates? How do the mean graduation rates of the states in
each of these regions compare?
PLAN: Use graphs and numerical descriptions to describe and compare the distri-
butions of on-time high school graduation rates of the states in the four regions of
the United States.
SOLVE: We might use boxplots to compare the distributions, but stemplots pre-
serve more detail and work well for data sets of these sizes. Figure 2.5 displays the
stemplots with the stems lined up for easy comparison. The stems have been split
4-Step Examples
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to better display the distributions. The stemplots overlap, and some care is needed
when comparing the four stemplots as the sample sizes differ, with some stemplots
having more leaves than others. None of the plots shows strong skewness, although
In Chapter 2, students learn how to use the four-
the South has one low observation that stands apart from the others with this choice
of stems. The states in the Northeast and Midwest have distributions that are similar step process for working through statistical prob-
lems: State, Plan, Solve, Conclude. By observing this
to each other, as do those in the South and West. The graduation rates tend to be
higher for the states in the Northeast and Midwest and more variable for the states
in the South and West. With little skewness and no serious outliers, we report x and
s as our summary measures of center and variability of the distribution of the on-time
graduation rates of the states in each region:
framework in use in selected examples throughout
Region Mean Standard Deviation
the text and practicing it in selected exercises, stu-
Midwest
Northeast
82.92
82.56
4.25
3.47
dents develop the ability to solve and write reports
South 75.93 7.36 on real statistical problems encountered outside the
West 73.58 6.73
classroom.
FIGURE 2.5 Midwest Northeast South West
Stemplots comparing the distribu-
8 66678 8 67 8 66 8
tions of graduation rates for the four
8 0 1 334 8 33334 8 1 23 8 002
census regions from Table 1.1, for
Example 2.9. 7 7 7 77 7 5688 7 6668
7 4 7 7 1 1 24 7 4
6 6 6 7 6 88
6 6 6 6 23
5 5 5 9 5

CONCLUDE: The table of summary statistics confirms what we see in the stem-
plots. The states in the Midwest and Northeast are quite similar to each other, as are
those in the South and West. The states in the Midwest and Northeast have a higher
mean graduation rate as well as a smaller standard deviation than those in the South
and West. ■

Apply Your Knowledge

2.10 x and s by Hand. Radon is a naturally occurring gas and is the second
leading cause of lung cancer in the United States.9 It comes from the natural

Apply Your Knowledge breakdown of uranium in the soil and enters buildings through cracks and
other holes in the foundations. Found throughout the United States, levels
vary considerably from state to state. Several methods can reduce the levels
of radon in your home, and the Environmental Protection Agency recom-
Major concepts are immediately reinforced with mends using one of these if the measured level in your home is above 4 pico-
curies per liter. Four readings from Franklin County, Ohio, where the county
problems that are interspersed throughout the average is 8.4 picocuries per liter, were 6.2, 12.8, 7.6, and 15.4.
(a) Find the mean step-by-step. That is, find the sum of the four observations
chapter (often following examples). These prob- and divide by 4.
Photo Researchers/Getty Images

(b) Find the standard deviation step-by-step. That is, find the deviation
lems allow students to practice their skills concur- of each observation from the mean, square the deviations, then
obtain the variance and the standard deviation. Example 2.7 shows
rently as they work through the text. the method.
(c) Now enter the data into your calculator and use the mean and standard
deviation buttons to obtain x and s. Do the results agree with your hand
calculations?

xiv
 F EA T UR E S OF TH E BAS IC PRACTICE OF S TATIS TICS ■ Seventh Edition xv

Online Resources Online Resources

Many sections end with references to the most relevant • The Snapshots video, Summarizing Quantitative Data, provides an overview
of the need for measures of center and variability as well as some details of
and helpful online resources (chosen by the authors and
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/208/WHF00270/work/indd/CH02

available in LaunchPad) for students to use for further • The StatClips Examples video, Summaries of Quantitative Data Example
C, gives the details for the computation of the mean, median, and standard
explanation or practice. deviation in a small example. You can verify the computations along with the
video, either by hand or using your technology.
• The StatClips Examples videos, Basic Principles of Exploring Data Example
B and Basic Principles of Exploring Data Example C, emphasize the need to
examine outliers and understand them, rather than simply discarding obser-
vations that don’t seem to fit.

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Using Technology
Located where most appropriate, these special sections display and comment on
the output from graphing calculators, spreadsheets, and statistical software in the
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context of examples from the text.

2.9 Using technology

Although a calculator with “two-variable statistics” functions will do the basic
calculations we need, more elaborate tools are helpful. Graphing calculators and
computer software will do calculations and make graphs as you command, freeing
you to concentrate on choosing the right methods and interpreting your results.
Figure 2.4 displays output describing the travel times to work of 20 people in New
York State (Example 2.3). Can you find x, s, and the five-number summary in each
output? The big message of this section is: Once you know what to look for, you can
read output from any technological tool.
The displays in Figure 2.4 come from a Texas Instruments graphing calcula-
tor, the Minitab, CrunchIt!, and JMP statistical programs, and the Microsoft CrunchIt!
Excel spreadsheet program. Minitab and JMP allow you to choose what descrip- Results - Descriptive Statistics
SE_CH02_047-074.indd Page 62 02/09/14 7:53 PM user-f-401 /208/WHF00270/work/indd/CH02
tive measures you want, whereas the descriptive measures in the CrunchIt! out- Export
put are provided by default. Excel and the calculator give some things we don’t
n Sample Mean Standard Deviation Min Q1 Median Q3 Max
need. Just ignore the extras. Excel’s “Descriptive Statistics” menu item doesn’t
give the quartiles. We used the spreadsheet’s separate quartile function to get Minutes 20 31.25 21.88 5 15 22.50 42.50 85
Q1 and Q3.
Microsoft Excel

Texas Instruments Graphing Calculator A B C D

1 minutes
2
3 Mean 31.25
4 Standard Error 4.891924064
5 Median 22.5 QUARTILE(A2:A21,1) 15
6 Mode 15 QUARTILE(A2:A21,3) 42.5
7 Standard Deviation 21.8773495
8 Sample Variance 478.6184211
Minitab 9 Kurtosis 0.329884126
10 Skewness 1.040110836
11 Range 80
12 Minimum 5
Descriptive Statistics: NYtime 13 Maximum 85
14 Sum 625
Total 15 Count 20
variable Count Mean StDev Variance Minimum Q1 Median Q3 Maximum 16
Sheet4 Sheet1 Sheet2 Sheet
NYtime 20 31.25 21.88 478.62 5.00 15.00 22.50 43.75 85.00

JMP Output

Distributions
NYtime
Quantiles
100% maximum 85
75% quartile 43.75
50% median 22.5
25% quartile 15
0% minimum 5
Summary Statistics
Mean 31.25
Std Dev 21.877349
N 20

FIGURE 2.4
Output from a graphing calculator, three
statistical software packages, and a
spreadsheet program describing the
data on travel times to work in New
York State.
 xvi F EATU R ES O F T HE B A SI C P R A CT ICE OF S TATIS TICS ■ Seventh Edition

HE SAID,
Statistics in Your World
SHE SAID. These brief asides in each chapter illustrate major concepts
Height, weight, and body mass
distributions in this book come from or present cautionary tales through entertaining and relevant
actual measurements by a government
survey. That is a good thing. When stories, allowing students to take a break from the exposition
asked their weight, almost all women
say they weigh less than they really do.
while staying engaged.
Heavier men also underreport their
weight—but lighter men claim to
weigh more than the scale shows. We
leave you to ponder the psychology
of the two sexes. Just remember that
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CHAPTER 4 SUMMARY Chapter Summary and Link It

Chapter Specifics Each chapter concludes with a summary of the chapter specifics,
To study relationships between variables, we must measure the variables on the same
including major terms and processes, followed by a brief discus-
■
group of individuals.
■ If we think that a variable x may explain or even cause changes in another variable y,
we call x an explanatory variable and y a response variable. sion of how the chapter links to material from both previous and
■ A scatterplot displays the relationship between two quantitative variables measured on
the same individuals. Mark values of one variable on the horizontal axis (x axis) and upcoming chapters.
values of the other variable on the vertical axis (y axis). Plot each individual’s data as
a point on the graph. Always plot the explanatory variable, if there is one, on the x axis
of a scatterplot.
■ Plot points with different colors or symbols to see the effect of a categorical variable in
a scatterplot. Link It
■ In examining a scatterplot, look for an overall pattern showing the direction, form, and In Chapters 1 to 3, we focused on exploring features of a single variable. In this chapter, we
strength of the relationship and then for outliers or other deviations from this pattern. continued our study of exploratory data analysis but for the purpose of examining relation-
ships between variables. A useful tool for exploring the relationship between two variables
■ Direction: If the relationship has a clear direction, we speak of either positive associa-
is the scatterplot. When the relationship is linear, correlation is a numerical measure of the
tion (high values of the two variables tend to occur together) or negative association
strength of the linear relationship.
(high values of one variable tend to occur with low values of the other variable).
It is tempting to assume that the patterns we observe in our data hold for values of our
■ Form: Linear relationships, where the points show a straight-line pattern, are an variables that we have not observed—in other words, that additional data would continue
important form of relationship between two variables. Curved relationships and clus- to conform to these patterns. The process of identifying underlying patterns would seem
ters are other forms to watch for. to assume that this is the case. But is this assumption justified? Parts II to V of the book
■ Strength: The strength of a relationship is determined by how close the points in the answer this question.
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scatterplot lie to a simple form such as a line.
■ The correlation r measures the direction and strength of the linear association
between two quantitative variables x and y. Although you can calculate a correlation
for any scatterplot, r measures only straight-line relationships.

CCHHAEPCTKE RYO1U RE XS EKRI LCLI S E S

4.14 Researchers collect data on 5,134 American adults 4.18 What are all the values that a correlation r can pos-
younger than 60. They measure the reaction times (in sibly take?
seconds) of each subject to a stimulus on a computer (a) r # 0 (b) 0 $ r $ 1 (c) "1 $ r $ 1
screen and how many years later the subject died.10
4.19 If the correlation between two variables is close to 0,
The researchers are interested in whether reaction
you can conclude that a scatterplot would show
time can predict time to death (in years). When you
make a scatterplot, the explanatory variable on the x axis (a) a strong straight-line pattern.
(b) a cloud of points with no visible pattern.
(a) is the reaction time.
(c) no straight-line pattern, but there might be a strong
(b) is the time to death.
pattern of another form.
(c) can be either reaction time or time to death.
4.20 The points on a scatterplot lie very close to a straight
4.15 The researchers inPage Exercise 4.14 found that people
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with slower reaction times tended to die sooner. In
a scatterplot of the reaction time and the number of (a) "1. (b) 1. (c) either "1 or 1, we can’t say which.
years to death, you expect to see 4.21 A statistics professor warns her class that her second
(a) a positive association. midterm is always harder than the first. She tells her

Check Your Skills and (b) very little association.

(c) a negative association.
class that students always score 10 points worse on the
second midterm compared to their score on the first
midterm. This means that the correlation between

Chapter Exercises 4.16 Figure 4.7 is a scatterplot of school GPA against IQ

test scores for 15 seventh-grade students. There is one
low outlier in the plot. The IQ and GPA scores for this
students’ scores on the first and second exam is
(a) 1. (b) "1. (c) Can’t tell without seeing the data.
student are 4.22 Researchers asked mothers how much soda (in ounces)
Each chapter ends with a series of multiple- (a) IQ ! 0.5, GPA ! 103. their kids drank in a typical day. They also asked
these mothers to rate how aggressive their kids were
(b) IQ ! 103, GPA ! 0.5.
choice problems that test students’ understand- (c) IQ ! 103, GPA ! 7.6. on a scale of 1 to 10, with larger values corresponding
to a greater degree of aggression.11 The correlation
ing of basic concepts and their ability to apply
4.17 If we leave out the low outlier, the correlation for the
between amount of soda consumed and aggression
remaining 14 points in Figure 4.7 is closest to
rating was found to be r ! 0.3. If the researchers had

the concepts to real-world statistical situations. (a) 0.9. (b) "0.9. (c) 0.1. measured amount of soda consumed in liters instead

The multiple-choice problems are followed by a C H EACPKT EYO U RE X

R 4 SK I LCLISS E S
ER

set of more in-depth exercises that allow students 4.24 Scores at the Masters. The Masters is one of the four
major golf tournaments. Figure 4.8 is a scatterplot of
4.25 Happy states. Human happiness or well-being can be
assessed either subjectively or objectively. Subjective

to make judgments and draw conclusions based the scores for the first two rounds of the 2013 Masters
for all the golfers entered. Only the 60 golfers with
assessment can be accomplished by listening to what
people say. Objective assessment can be made from

on real data and real scenarios. the lowest two-round total advance to the final two
rounds (unless several people are tied for 60th place,
data related to well-being such as income, climate,
availability of entertainment, housing prices, lack of
in which case all those tied for 60th place advance). traffic congestion, and so on. Do subjective and ob-
The plot has a grid pattern because golf scores must jective assessments agree? To study this, investiga-
be whole numbers.13 MASTR13 tors made both subjective and objective assessments
DATA

of happiness for each of the 50 states. The subjective

(a) Read the graph: What was the lowest score in
measurement was the mean score on a life-satisfaction
the first round of play? How many golfers had this
question found on the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveil-
low score? What were their scores in the second
lance System (BRFSS), which is a state-based system of
round?
health surveys. Lower scores indicate a greater degree
(b) Read the graph: Alan Dunbar had the highest
of happiness. To objectively assess happiness, the in-
score in the second round. What was this score?
vestigators computed a mean well-being score (called
What was Dunbar’s score in the first round?
h i diff i l ) f h
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CTICE OF S T AT IS TICS ■ Seventh Edition xvii

Web Exercises
A final set of exercises asks students to investigate data and statistical issues by
researching topics online. These exercises tend to be more involved and provide
an opportunity for students to dig deep into contemporary issues and special ap-
plications of statistics.

Exploring the Web

6.34 Promoting women. In academics, faculty typically start as assistant professors,

are promoted to associate professor (and gain tenure), and finally reach the rank of
full professor. Some have argued that women have a harder time gaining promotion
to associate and full professor than do men. Do data support this argument? Search
the web to find the number of faculty by rank and gender at some university. Do
you see a pattern that suggests that the proportion of women decreases as rank
increases? We found several sources of data by doing a Google search on “faculty
head count by rank and gender.” In addition to discussing the pattern you find,
provide the data, the name of the school, and the source of the data.
6.35 Accidental deaths and age. Accidental deaths are shocking and tragic. Do the
ways in which people die by accident change with age? Look at the most recent
Statistical Abstract of the United States (www.census.gov/compendia/
statab/) and make a two-way table that provides the counts of deaths due
to accidents from various causes for three different age groups. What do you
conclude?
6.36 Simpson’s paradox. Find an example of Simpson’s paradox and discuss
how your example illustrates the paradox. Two examples that we found (thanks
to Patricia Humphrey at Georgia Southern University) are www.nytimes.
com/2006/07/15/education/15report.html and online.wsj.com/
article/SB125970744553071829.html.

Online Data for Additional Analyses

References to larger data sets are suggested in Chapter 7 to provide an opportunity for
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students to apply the methods of Chapters 1–6 to explore data on their own. This is
intended to reinforce the idea of exploratory data analysis as a tool for exploring data.

Online Data for Additional Analyses

1. SAT, ACT, and teacher salaries for 2013 for each of the 50 states and the District of
Columbia are available in the data set SATACT. One could use these data to carry
out analyses for ACT scores similar to those for the SAT scores in Chapters 5 and 6.
For example, repeat the analyses in Exercises 5.50 (page 157) and 5.51 (page 158)
using ACT scores instead of SAT scores. SATACT
DATA

2. The data set MLB contains hitting, pitching, fielding, salary, and win–loss perfor-
mance data from the 2013 season for all major league baseball teams. These data
can be used to determine the correlation between payroll and winning percent-
age. One can also explore what variables are most highly correlated with winning
percentage, and whether variables that measure pitching performance are more
highly correlated with winning percentage than variables that measure hitting
performance. For example, calculate the correlation between winning percentage
and number of home runs, between winning percentage and batting average, be-
tween winning percentage and ERA, between winning percentage and strikeouts
by pitchers, and between winning percentage and payroll. Which has the highest
correlation? These data are from http://www.baseball-reference.
com/. Visit this website for definitions of several of the variables in the data
set. MLB
DATA

3. Historical temperature data and whether Punxsutawney Phil saw his shadow are
available in the data set PHIL. Repeat the analysis in Exercise 6.32 (page 177),
but define what constitutes “six more weeks of winter-like weather” differently.
For example, you might decide there were six more weeks of winter-like weather if
average temperatures for March were at least one degree below historical averages.
PHIL
DATA

4. Data from the Ohio Department of Health website are available in the pdf
“2013OHH Detail Tables.” This is a source of many tables that can be used for
further analyses using methods discussed in Chapter 6. For example, conduct an
analysis like that in Exercise 7.52 to investigate the relationship between sex and
strategies about weight (Question 67 in the Tables). HEALTH
DATA

5. The data set WHAT contains three variables and 3848 observations on each. At
one time, this was considered a large data set and difficult to explore with software.
Use various exploratory methods available in software packages such as JMP and
Minitab to find the “hidden pattern” in these data. WHAT
DATA
xviii F EATU R ES O F T HE B A SI C P R A CT ICE OF S TATIS TICS ■ Seventh Edition

Why Did You Do That?

There is no single best way to organize our presentation of statistics to beginners.
That said, our choices reflect thinking about both content and pedagogy. Here are
comments on several “frequently asked questions” about the order and selection of
material in The Basic Practice of Statistics.
• Why does the distinction between population and sample not appear in Part I?
There is more to statistics than inference. In fact, statistical inference is appropriate
only in rather special circumstances. The chapters in Part I present tools and tactics
for describing data—any data. These tools and tactics do not depend on the idea of
inference from sample to population. Many data sets in these chapters (for example,
the several sets of data about the 50 states) do not lend themselves to inference be-
cause they represent an entire population. John Tukey of Bell Labs and Princeton, the
philosopher of modern data analysis, insisted that the population–sample distinction
be avoided when it is not relevant. He used the word “batch” for data sets in general.
We see no need for a special word, but we think Tukey was right.
• Why not begin with data production? We prefer to begin with data exploration
(Part I), as most students will use statistics mainly in settings other than planned
research studies in their future employment. We place the design of data produc-
tion (Part II) after data analysis to emphasize that data-analytic techniques apply
to any data. However, it is equally reasonable to begin with data production—the
natural flow of a planned study is from design to data analysis to inference. Because
instructors have strong and differing opinions on this question, these two topics are
now the first two parts of the book, with the text written so that it may be started
with either Part I or Part II while maintaining the continuity of the material.
• Why do Normal distributions appear in Part I? Density curves such as the Nor-
mal curves are just another tool to describe the distribution of a quantitative variable,
along with stemplots, histograms, and boxplots. Professional statistical software offers
to make density curves from data just as it offers histograms. We prefer not to sug-
gest that this material is essentially tied to probability, as the traditional order does.
And we find it helpful to break up the indigestible lump of probability that troubles
students so much. Meeting Normal distributions early does this and strengthens the
“probability distributions are like data distributions” way of approaching probability.
• Why not delay correlation and regression until late in the course, as was
traditional? The Basic Practice of Statistics begins by offering experience working
with data and gives a conceptual structure for this nonmathematical but essential
part of statistics. Students profit from more experience with data and from seeing
the conceptual structure worked out in relations among variables as well as in
describing single-variable data. Correlation and least-squares regression are very
important descriptive tools and are often used in settings where there is no popula-
tion–sample distinction, such as studies of all of a firm’s employees. Perhaps most
important, the approach taken by The Basic Practice of Statistics asks students to
think about what kind of relationship lies behind the data (confounding, lurking
variables, association doesn’t imply causation, and so on), without overwhelming
them with the demands of formal inference methods. Inference in the correlation
and regression setting is a bit complex, demands software, and often comes right at
the end of the course. We find that delaying all mention of correlation and regres-
sion to that point means that students often don’t master the basic uses and proper-
ties of these methods. We consider Chapters 4 and 5 (correlation and regression)
essential and Chapter 26 (regression inference) optional.
 F EA T UR E S OF TH E BAS IC PRACTICE OF S TATIS TICS ■ Seventh Edition xix

• Why use the z procedures for a population mean to introduce the reasoning
of inference? This is a pedagogical issue, not a question of statistics in practice.
The two most popular choices for introducing inference are z for a mean and z
for a proportion. (Another option is resampling and permutation tests. We have
included material on these topics, but have not used them to introduce inference.)
We find z for means quite accessible to students. Positively, we can say up front
that we are going to explore the reasoning of inference in the overly simple setting
described in the box on page 374 titled Simple Conditions for Inference about a
Mean. As this box suggests, exactly Normal population and true simple random
sample are as unrealistic as known !. All the issues of practice—robustness against
lack of Normality and application when the data aren’t an SRS as well as the need
to estimate !—are put off until, with the reasoning in hand, we discuss the practi-
cally useful t procedures. This separation of initial reasoning from messier practice
works well.
Negatively, starting with inference for p introduces many side issues: no exact
Normal sampling distribution, but a Normal approximation to a discrete distribu-
tion; use of p̂ in both the numerator and denominator of the test statistic to esti-
mate both the parameter p and p̂’s own standard deviation; loss of the direct link
between test and confidence interval; and the need to avoid small and moderate
sample sizes because the Normal approximation for the test is quite unreliable.
There are advantages to starting with inference for p. Starting with z for means
takes a fair amount of time and the ideas need to be rehashed with the introduc-
tion of the t procedures. Many instructors face pressure from client departments
to cover a large amount of material in a single semester. Eliminating coverage of
the “unrealistic” z for means with known variance enables instructors to cover
additional, more realistic applications of inference. Also, many instructors believe
that proportions are simpler and more familiar to students than means. For instruc-
tors who would prefer to introduce inference with z for a proportion, we recom-
mend our book, Statistics in Practice.
• Why didn’t you cover Topic X? Introductory texts ought not to be encyclope-
dic. We chose topics on two grounds: they are the most commonly used in practice,
and they are suitable vehicles for learning broader statistical ideas. Students who
have completed the core of the book, Chapters 1 to 12 and 15 to 24, will have little
difficulty moving on to more elaborate methods. Chapters 25 to 27 offer a choice of
slightly more advanced topics, as do the four companion chapters available online.
 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

W
e have enjoyed the opportunity to once again rethink how to help beginning
students achieve a practical grasp of basic statistics. What students actually
learn is not identical to what we teachers think we have “covered,” so the
virtues of concentrating on the essentials are considerable. We hope that the new edi-
tion of The Basic Practice of Statistics offers a mix of concrete skills and clearly explained
concepts that will help many teachers guide their students toward useful knowledge.
We are grateful to colleagues from two-year and four-year colleges and universi-
ties who commented on The Basic Practice of Statistics:

Faran Ali, Simon Fraser University Jackie Miller, University of Michigan

Michael Allen, Glendale Community College Juliann Moore, Oregon State University
Paul Lawrence Baker, Catawba College Penny Ann Morris, Polk State College
Brigitte Baldi, University of California—Irvine Kathleen Mowers, Owensboro Community and Technical College
Barbara A. Barnet, University of Wisconsin—Platteville Julia Ann Norton, California State University—East Bay
Paul R. Bedard, Saint Clair Community College Mary R. Parker, Austin Community College
Marjorie E. Bond, Monmouth College Michael Price, University of Oregon
Ryan Botts, Point Loma Nazarene University David Rangel, Bellingham Technical College
Mine Cetinkaya-Rundel, Duke University Shane Patrick Redmond, Eastern Kentucky University
Gary Cochell, Culver-Stockton College Scott J. Richter, University of North Carolina at Greensboro
Patti Collings, Brigham Young University Laurence David Robinson, Ohio Northern University
Phyllis Curtis, Grand Valley State University Caroline Schruth, Tacoma Community College
Carolyn Pillers Dobler, Gustavus Adolphus College Mack Shelley, Iowa State University
John Daniel Draper, The Ohio State University Therese N. Shelton, Southwestern University
Michelle Everson, The Ohio State University Haskell Sie, Pennsylvania State University
Diane G. Fisher, University of Louisiana at Lafayette Murray H. Siegel, Arizona State University—Polytechnic
James Gray, University of Washington Campus
Ellen Gundlach, Purdue University Sean Simpson, Westchester Community College
James A. Harding, Green Mountain College Robb Sinn, University of North Georgia
James Hartman, The College of Wooster Karen H. Smith, University of West Georgia
Pat Humphrey, Georgia Southern University Stephen R. Soltys, Elizabethtown College
Dick Jardine, Keene State College James Stamey, Baylor University
Robert W. Jernigan, American University Jeanette M. Szwec, Cape Fear Community College
Jennifer Kaplan, University of Georgia Ramin Vakilian, California State University—Northridge
Daniel L. King, Sarah Lawrence College Asokan Mulayath Variyath, Memorial University of Newfoundland
William “Sonny” Kirby, Gadsden State Community College Lianwen Wang, University of Central Missouri
Brian Knaeble, University of Wisconsin—Stout Barbara B. Ward, Belmont University
Allyn Leon, Imperial Valley College Yajni Warnapala, Roger Williams University
Karen P. Lundberg, Colorado State University—Pueblo Robert E. White, Allan Hancock College
Dana E. Madison, Clarion University of Pennsylvania Ronald L. White, Norfolk State University
Kimberly Massaro, University of Texas at San Antonio Rachelle Curtis Wilkinson, Austin Community College

xx
 ACK N OWL E D G MENT S xxi

We extend our appreciation to Ruth Baruth, Terri Ward, Karen Carson, Leslie
Lahr, Jorge Amaral, Marie Dripchak, Laura Judge, Catriona Kaplan, Liam Fergu-
son, Victoria Garvey, Cara LeClair, Bailey James, Cecilia Varas, Eileen Liang, Lisa
Kinne, Julia DeRosa, Laurel Sparrow, and other publishing professionals who have
contributed to the development, production, and cohesiveness of this book and its
online resources.
Special thanks are due to Vicki Tomaselli, whose talents were poured into the
aesthetic appeal of this book. We extend our appreciation to Denise Showers of
Aptara, Inc., who has offered her knowledge, expertise, and patience tirelessly
throughout the production process.
We are deeply indebted to our colleagues, Jackie B. Miller and Patricia B. Hum-
phrey, for their many contributions, insights, time, and humor. Their wisdom and
experience in the classroom have added to a level of quality that students and
instructors alike have come to expect. Each of them brought to the project their
individual strengths and talents, but they did so in the spirit of true teamwork and
collaboration.
We would also like to specially thank the authors and reviewers of the supple-
mentary materials available with The Basic Practice of Statistics, 7e; their work and
dedication to quality have resulted in a robust package of resources that comple-
ment the ideas and concepts presented in the text:
Solutions manuals written by Pat Humphrey, Georgia Southern University
Solutions accuracy reviewed by Jackie Miller, University of Michigan
Test bank written by Christiana Drake, University of California–Davis
Test bank accuracy reviewed by Catherine Matos, Clayton State University
iClicker slides created by Dilshod Achilov, Tennessee State University
iClicker slides accuracy reviewed by Jun Ye, The University of Akron
Practice Quizzes written by Leslie Hendrix, University of South Carolina
Practice Quizzes accuracy reviewed by Jun Ye, The University of Akron
Lecture PowerPoints created by Mark Gebert, University of Kentucky, Lexington
The team of statistics educators who created the new StatBoards videos deserve
our praise and thanks; their creative works offer intuitive approaches to the key
concepts in the course:
Doug Tyson, Central York High School
Michelle Everson, The Ohio State University
Marian Frazier, Gustavus Adolphus College
Aimee Schwab, University of Nebraska–Lincoln
Finally, we are indebted to the many statistics teachers with whom we have
discussed the teaching of our subject over many years; to people from diverse fields
with whom we have worked to understand data; and especially to students whose
compliments and complaints have changed and improved our teaching. Working
with teachers, colleagues in other disciplines, and students constantly reminds us
of the importance of hands-on experience with data and of statistical thinking in
an era when computer routines quickly handle statistical details.
David S. Moore, William I. Notz, and Michael A. Fligner
 MEDIA AND SUPPLEMENTS

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xxii
 ME DIA AN D SU PPL E MENT S xxiii

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xxiii
xxiv M EDI A AND S U P P LEM ENT S

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 ABOUT THE AUTHORS

David S. Moore is Shanti S. Gupta Distinguished Professor of Statistics, Emeritus,

at Purdue University and was the 1998 president of the American Statistical Associa-
tion. He received his A.B. from Princeton and his Ph.D. from Cornell, both in math-
ematics. He has written many research papers in statistical theory and served on the
editorial boards of several major journals. Professor Moore is an elected fellow of the
American Statistical Association and of the Institute of Mathematical Statistics and an
elected member of the International Statistical Institute. He has served as program direc-
tor for statistics and probability at the National Science Foundation. Professor Moore has
made many contributions to the teaching of statistics. He was the content developer for
the Annenberg/Corporation for Public Broadcasting college-level telecourse Against All
Odds: Inside Statistics and for the series of video modules Statistics: Decisions through
Data, intended to aid the teaching of statistics in schools. He is the author of influential
articles on statistics education and of several leading texts. Professor Moore has served
as president of the International Association for Statistical Education and has received
the Mathematical Association of Americas national award for distinguished college or
university teaching of mathematics.

William I. Notz is Professor of Statistics at the Ohio State University. He received

his B.S. in physics from the Johns Hopkins University and his Ph.D. in mathematics from
Cornell University. His first academic job was as an assistant professor in the Department
of Statistics at Purdue University. While there, he taught the introductory concepts course
with Professor Moore and as a result of this experience he developed an interest in sta-
tistical education. Professor Notz is a co-author of EESEE (the Electronic Encyclopedia of
Statistical Examples and Exercises) and co-author of Statistics: Concepts and Controversies.
Professor Notz’s research interests have focused on experimental design and computer
experiments. He is the author of several research papers and of a book on the design and
analysis of computer experiments. He is an elected fellow of the American Statistical
Association. He has served as the editor of the journal Technometrics and as editor of the
Journal of Statistics Education. He has served as the Director of the Statistical Consulting
Service, as acting chair of the Department of Statistics for a year, and as an Associate
Dean in the College of Mathematical and Physical Sciences at the Ohio State University.
He is a winner of the Ohio State University’s Alumni Distinguished Teaching Award.

Michael A. Fligner is an Adjunct Professor at the University of California at Santa

Cruz and a nonresident Professor Emeritus at the Ohio State University. He received his
B.S. in mathematics from the State University of New York at Stony Brook and his Ph.D.
from the University of Connecticut. He spent most of his professional career at the Ohio
State University where he was vice-chair of the department for over 10 years and also
served as Director of the Statistical Consulting Service. He has done consulting work
with several large corporations in Central Ohio.
Professor Fligner’s research interests are in nonparametric statistical methods and he
received the Statistics in Chemistry award from the American Statistical Association for
work on detecting biologically active compounds. He is co-author of the book Statistical
Methods for Behavioral Ecology and received a Fulbright scholarship under the Ameri-
can Republics Research program to work at the Charles Darwin Research Station in the
Galapagos Islands. He has been an Associate Editor of the Journal of Statistical Education.
Professor Fligner is currently associated with the Center for Statistical Analysis in the
Social Sciences at the University of California at Santa Cruz.

xxv
 CHAPTER

0
Ryan Etter/Getty Images

Getting Started In this chapter

we cover...
0.1 Where the data comes from
matters

0.2 Always look at the data

0.3 Variation is everywhere

0.4 What lies ahead in this book

W
hat’s hot in popular music this week? SoundScan knows. SoundScan col-
lects data electronically from the cash registers in more than 14,000 retail
outlets and also collects data on download sales from websites. When you
buy a CD or download a digital track, the checkout scanner or website is prob-
ably telling SoundScan what you bought. SoundScan provides this information
to Billboard magazine, MTV, and VH1, as well as to record companies and artists’
agents.
Should women take hormones such as estrogen after menopause, when natural
production of these hormones ends? In 1992, several major medical organizations
said “Yes.” In particular, women who took hormones seemed to reduce their risk
of a heart attack by 35% to 50%. The risks of taking hormones appeared small
compared with the benefits. But in 2002, the National Institutes of Health declared
these findings wrong. Use of hormones after menopause immediately plummeted.
Both recommendations were based on extensive studies. What happened?
Is the climate warming? Is it becoming more extreme? An overwhelming major-
ity of scientists now agree that the earth is undergoing major changes in climate.
Enormous quantities of data are continuously being collected from weather stations,
satellites, and other sources to monitor factors such as the surface temperature on
land and sea, precipitation, solar activity, and the chemical composition of air and

1
2 CHAP TER 0 ■ Getting Started

water. Climate models incorporate this information to make projections of future

climate change and can help us understand the effectiveness of proposed solutions.
SoundScan, medical studies, and climate research all produce data (numerical
facts), and lots of them. Using data effectively is a large and growing part of most
professions, and reacting to data is part of everyday life. In fact, we define statistics
as the science of learning from data.
Although data are numbers, they are not “just numbers.” Data are numbers with
a context. The number 8.5, for example, carries no information by itself. But if we
hear that a friend’s new baby weighed 8.5 pounds at birth, we congratulate her on
the healthy size of the child. The context engages our background knowledge and
allows us to make judgments. We know that a baby weighing 8.5 pounds is a little
above average, and that a human baby is unlikely to weigh 8.5 ounces or 8.5 kilo-
grams (over 18 pounds). The context makes the number informative.
To gain insight from data, we make graphs and do calculations. But graphs and
calculations are guided by ways of thinking that amount to educated common
sense. Let’s begin our study of statistics with an informal look at some aspects of
statistical thinking.1

0.1 Where the data comes from matters

Although, data can be collected in a variety of ways, the type of conclusion that
can be reached from the data depends on how the data were obtained. Observational
studies and experiments are two common methods for collecting data. Let’s take a
closer look at the hormone replacement data to understand the differences.

E X A M P L E 0 .1 Hormone Replacement Therapy

What’s behind the flip-flop in the advice offered to women about hormone replace-
ment? The evidence in favor of hormone replacement came from a number of obser-
vational studies that compared women who were taking hormones with others who
were not. But women who choose to take hormones are very different from women
who do not: they are richer and better educated and see doctors more often. These
women do many things to maintain their health. It isn’t surprising that they have fewer
heart attacks.
Large and careful observational studies are expensive, but they are easier to
arrange than careful experiments. Experiments don’t let women decide what to do.
They assign women either to hormone replacement or to dummy pills that look and
taste the same as the hormone pills. The assignment is done by a coin toss, so that
all kinds of women are equally likely to get either treatment. Part of the difficulty of
a good experiment is persuading women to accept the result—invisible to them—of
the coin toss. By 2002, several experiments agreed that hormone replacement does
not reduce the risk of heart attacks, at least for older women. Faced with this better
evidence, medical authorities changed their recommendations.2 ■

Women who chose hormone replacement after menopause were on the average
richer and better educated than those who didn’t. No wonder they had fewer heart
attacks. We can’t conclude that hormone replacement reduces heart attacks just
because we see this relationship in data. In this example, education and affluence
are background factors that help explain the relationship between hormone replace-
ment and good health.
Children who play soccer do better in school (on the average) than children
who don’t play soccer. Does this mean that playing soccer increases school grades?
 0.2 Always Look at the Data 3

Children who play soccer tend to have prosperous and well-educated parents. Once
again, education and affluence are background factors that help explain the rela-
tionship between soccer and good grades.
Almost all relationships between two observed characteristics or “variables” are influ-
enced by other variables lurking in the background. To understand the relationship
between two variables, you must often look at other variables. Careful statistical
studies try to think of and measure possible lurking variables in order to correct for
their influence. As the hormone saga illustrates, this doesn’t always work well. News
reports often just ignore possible lurking variables that might ruin a good headline
like “Playing soccer can improve your grades.” The habit of asking, “What might lie
behind this relationship?” is part of thinking statistically.
Of course, observational studies are still quite useful. We can learn from
observational studies how chimpanzees behave in the wild or which popular
songs sold best last week or what percent of workers were unemployed last month.
SoundScan’s data on popular music and the government’s data on employment
and unemployment come from sample surveys, an important kind of observational
study that chooses a part (the sample) to represent a larger whole. Opinion polls
interview perhaps 1000 of the 235 million adults in the United States to report
the public’s views on current issues. Can we trust the results? We’ll see that this
isn’t a simple yes-or-no question. Let’s just say that the government’s unemploy-
ment rate is much more trustworthy than opinion poll results, and not just
because the Bureau of Labor Statistics interviews 60,000 people rather than 1000.
We can, however, say right away that some samples can’t be trusted. Consider the
following write-in poll.

EX AM PLE 0.2 Would You Have Children Again?

The advice columnist Ann Landers once asked her readers, “If you had it to do over
again, would you have children?” A few weeks later, her column was headlined “70%
OF PARENTS SAY KIDS NOT WORTH IT.” Indeed, 70% of the nearly 10,000 parents
who wrote in said they would not have children if they could make the choice again.
Those 10,000 parents were upset enough with their children to write Ann Landers.
Most parents are happy with their kids and don’t bother to write. ■

Statistically designed samples, even opinion polls, don’t let people choose them-
selves for the sample. They interview people selected by impersonal chance so that
everyone has an equal opportunity to be in the sample. Such a poll showed that 91%
of parents would have children again. Where data come from matters a lot. If you are
careless about how you get your data, you may announce 70% “no” when the truth
is close to 90% “yes.” Understanding the importance of where data come and its
relationship to the conclusions that can be reached is an important part of learning
to think statistically.

0.2 Always look at the data

Yogi Berra, the Hall of Fame New York Yankee, said it: “You can observe a lot by
just watching.” That’s a motto for learning from data. A few carefully chosen graphs
are often more instructive than great piles of numbers. Consider the outcome of the
2000 presidential election in Florida.
 4 CHAP TER 0 ■ Getting Started

EX AM PLE 0.3 Palm Beach County

Elections don’t come much closer: after much recounting, state officials declared that
George Bush had carried Florida by 537 votes out of almost 6 million votes cast.
Florida’s vote decided the 2000 presidential election and made George Bush, rather
than Al Gore, president. Let’s look at some data. Figure 0.1 displays a graph that plots
votes for the third-party candidate Pat Buchanan against votes for the Democratic
candidate Al Gore in Florida’s 67 counties.

3500
• Palm Beach County

3000
What happened
in Palm Beach County?
2500
Votes for Buchanan

2000

1500

1000 •
• •
•
500 •• •• •• •
•
•••••• •• • •
FIG U R E 0 . 1 0 •••••••••••• • •
••
• •
Votes in the 2000 presidential election
for Al Gore and Patrick Buchanan in 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000
Florida’s 67 counties. What happened Votes for Gore
in Palm Beach County?

What happened in Palm Beach County? The question leaps out from the graph. In
this large and heavily Democratic county, a conservative third-party candidate did far
better relative to the Democratic candidate than in any other county. The points for
the other 66 counties show votes for both candidates increasing together in a roughly
straight-line pattern. Both counts go up as county population goes up. Based on
this pattern, we would expect Buchanan to receive around 800 votes in Palm Beach
County. He actually received more than 3400 votes. That difference determined the
election result in Florida and in the nation. ■

The graph demands an explanation. It turns out that Palm Beach County used
a confusing “butterfly” ballot (see photo on page 5), in which candidate names on
both left and right pages led to a voting column in the center. It would be easy for a
voter who intended to vote for Gore to in fact cast a vote for Buchanan. The graph
is convincing evidence that this in fact happened.
Most statistical software will draw a variety of graphs with a few simple com-
mands. Examining your data with appropriate graphs and numerical summaries is
the correct place to begin most data analyses. These can often reveal important
patterns or trends that will help you understand what your data has to say.
 0.3 Variation is Everywhere 5

Bruce Weaver/AFP/Getty Images

0.3 Variation is everywhere

The company’s sales reps file into their monthly meeting. The sales manager
rises. “Congratulations! Our sales were up 2% last month, so we’re all drinking
champagne this morning. You remember that when sales were down 1% last month
I fired half of our reps.” This picture is only slightly exaggerated. Many managers
overreact to small short-term variations in key figures. Here is Arthur Nielsen, for-
mer head of the country’s largest market research firm, describing his experience:
Too many business people assign equal validity to all numbers printed on
paper. They accept numbers as representing Truth and find it difficult
to work with the concept of probability. They do not see a number as a
kind of shorthand for a range that describes our actual knowledge of the
underlying condition.3
Business data such as sales and prices vary from month to month for reasons
ranging from the weather to a customer’s financial difficulties to the inevitable
errors in gathering the data. The manager’s challenge is to say when there is a real
pattern behind the variation. We’ll see that statistics provides tools for understand-
ing variation and for seeking patterns behind the screen of variation. Let’s look at
some more data.

E X A M P L E 0 .4 The Price of Gas

Figure 0.2 plots the average price of a gallon of regular unleaded gasoline each week
from September 1990 to June 2013.4 There certainly is variation! But a close look
shows a yearly pattern: gas prices go up during the summer driving season, then
down as demand drops in the fall. On top of this regular pattern, we see the effects
of international events. For example, prices rose when the 1990 Gulf War threatened
oil supplies and dropped when the world economy turned down after the September
Tony Avelar/Bloomberg via Getty Images

11, 2001, terrorist attacks in the United States. The years 2007 and 2008 brought
the perfect storm: the ability to produce oil and refine gasoline was overwhelmed
by high demand from China and the United States and continued turmoil in the oil-
producing areas of the Middle East and Nigeria. Add in a rapid fall in the value of
the dollar, and prices at the pump skyrocketed to more than $4 per gallon. In 2010
the Gulf oil spill also affected supply and hence prices. The data carry an important
message: because the United States imports much of its oil, we can’t control the price
we pay for gasoline. ■
 6 CHAP TER 0 ■ Getting Started

4.50

4.00 High demand,

Middle East unrest,

Gasoline price (dollars per gallon)

3.50 dollar loses value

3.00

2.50

2.00
Gulf oil
Gulf War spill
1.50
September 11
attacks, world
1.00 economy slumps

FIG U R E 0 . 2
94

98

14
90

19 1
92

19 3

19 5
96

19 7

20 9

04

10
00

20 1
02

20 3

20 5
06

20 7
08

20 9

12

20 3
11
9

0
9
9

0
9

1
0

20
19

20
20
19
19

19

19

20

20
19

20
Variation is everywhere: the average

20

20
retail price of regular unleaded gasoline, Year
1990 to mid 2013.

Variation is everywhere. Individuals vary; repeated measurements on the same indi-

vidual vary; almost everything varies over time. One reason we need to know some
statistics is that it helps us deal with variation and to describe the uncertainty in
our conclusions. Let’s look at another example to see how variation is incorporated
into our conclusions.

EX AM PLE 0.5 The HPV Vaccine

Cervical cancer, once the leading cause of cancer deaths among women, is the
easiest female cancer to prevent with regular screening tests and follow-up. Almost
all cervical cancers are caused by human papillomavirus (HPV). The first vaccine to
protect against the most common varieties of HPV became available in 2006. The
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommend that all girls be vaccinated at
age 11 or 12. In 2011, the CDC made the same recommendation for boys, to protect
against anal and throat cancers caused by the HPV virus.
How well does the vaccine work? Doctors rely on experiments (called “clinical
trials” in medicine) that give some women the new vaccine and others a dummy vac-
cine. (This is ethical when it is not yet known whether or not the vaccine is safe and
effective.) The conclusion of the most important trial was that an estimated 98% of
women up to age 26 who are vaccinated before they are infected with HPV will avoid
cervical cancers over a three-year period.
Women who get the vaccine are much less likely to get cervical cancer. But
because variation is everywhere, the results are different for different women. Some
vaccinated women will get cancer, and many who are not vaccinated will escape.
Statistical conclusions are “on the average” statements only, and even these “on the
average” statements have an element of uncertainty. Although we can’t be 100%
certain that the vaccine reduces risk on the average, statistics allows us to state how
confident we are that this is the case. ■
 0.4 What Lies Ahead in This Book 7

Because variation is everywhere, conclusions are uncertain. Statistics gives us a lan-

guage for talking about uncertainty that is used and understood by statistically literate
people everywhere. In the case of HPV vaccine, the medical journal used that lan-
guage to tell us: “Vaccine efficiency . . . was 98% (95 percent confidence interval
86% to 100%).”5 That “98% effective” is, in Arthur Nielsen’s words, “shorthand
for a range that describes our actual knowledge of the underlying condition.”
The range is 86% to 100%, and we are 95 percent confident that the truth lies
in that range. We will soon learn to understand this language. We can’t escape
variation and uncertainty. Learning statistics enables us to live more comfortably
with these realities.

0.4 What lies ahead in this book

The purpose of Basic Practice of Statistics is to give you a working knowledge
of the ideas and tools of practical statistics. We will divide practical statistics into
three main areas.
■ Data analysis concerns methods and strategies for looking at data; exploring,
organizing, and describing data using graphs and numerical summaries. Your
thoughtful exploration allows data to illuminate reality. Part I of this book
(Chapters 1 to 6) discusses data analysis.
■ Data production provides methods for producing data that can give clear
answers to specific questions. Where data come from matters and is often the
most important limitation on their usefulness. Basic concepts about how to
select samples and design experiments are some of the most influential ideas
in statistics. These concepts are the subject of Chapters 8 and 9.
■ Statistical inference moves beyond the data in hand to draw conclusions
about some wider universe. Statistical conclusions aren’t yes-or-no answers—
they must take into account that variation is everywhere; variability among
people, animals, or objects and uncertainty in data. To describe variation and
uncertainty, inference uses the language of probability, introduced in Chapter 12.
Because we are concerned with practice rather than theory, we need only a
limited knowledge of probability. Chapters 13 and 14 offer more probability
for those who want it. Chapters 15 to 18 discuss the reasoning of statistical
inference. These chapters are the key to the rest of the book. Chapters 20
to 23 present inference as used in practice in the most common settings.
Chapters 25 to 27 concern more advanced or specialized kinds of inference.
Because data are numbers with a context, doing statistics means more than manipulat-
ing numbers. You must state a problem in its real-world context, plan your specific
4step
statistical work in detail, solve the problem by making the necessary graphs and
calculations, and conclude by explaining what your findings say about the real-
world setting. We’ll make regular use of this four-step process to encourage good
habits that go beyond graphs and calculations to ask, “What do the data tell me?”
Statistics does involve lots of calculating and graphing. The text presents the
techniques you need, but you should use technology to automate calculations and
graphs as much as possible. Because the big ideas of statistics don’t depend on any
particular level of access to technology, Basic Practice of Statistics does not require
software or a graphing calculator until we reach the more advanced methods in
Part V of the text. Even if you make little use of technology, you should look at
the “Using Technology” sections throughout the book. You will see at once that
8 CHAP TER 0 ■ Getting Started

you can read and apply the output from almost any technology used for statistical
calculations. The ideas really are more important than the details of how to do the
calculations.
Unless you have access to software or a graphing calculator, you will need a
basic calculator with some built-in statistical functions. Specifically, your calcula-
tor should find means and standard deviations and calculate correlations and
regression lines. Look for a calculator that claims to do “two-variable statistics”
or mentions “regression.”
Although ability to carry out statistical procedures is very useful in academics
and employment, the most important asset you can gain from the study of statis-
tics is an understanding of the big ideas about working with data. Basic Practice of
Statistics tries to explain the most important ideas of statistics, not just teach meth-
ods. Some examples of big ideas that you will meet (one from each of the three areas
of statistics) are “always plot your data,” “randomized comparative experiments,”
and “statistical significance.”
You learn statistics by doing statistical problems. As you read, you will see several
levels of exercises, arranged to help you learn. Short “Apply Your Knowledge” prob-
lem sets appear after each major idea. These are straightforward exercises that help
you solidify the main points as you read. Be sure you can do these exercises before
going on. The end-of-chapter exercises begin with multiple-choice “Check Your
Skills” exercises (with all answers in the back of the book). Use them to check your
grasp of the basics. The regular “Chapter Exercises” help you combine all the ideas
of a chapter. Finally, the four Part Review chapters (Chapters 7, 11, 19, and 24)
look back over major blocks of learning, with many review exercises. At each step
you are given less advance knowledge of exactly what statistical ideas and skills the
problems will require, so each type of exercise requires more understanding.
The key to learning is persistence. The main ideas of statistics, like the main ideas
of any important subject, took a long time to discover and take some time to master.
The gain will be worth the pain.
 Exercises 9

CCHHAAPPTTEERR 10 EEXXEERRCCI S
I SEESS
0.1 Observational studies and experiments. Observa- patterns do you observe? To what international events
tional studies have suggested that vitamin E reduces do these departures correspond?
the risk of heart disease. Careful experiments, how- 0.3 Online polls. Ed Schultz is a liberal political commen-
ever, showed that vitamin E has no effect. According tator and host of The Ed Show. After an often lengthy
to a commentary in the Journal of the American Medi- and impassioned monologue from Mr. Schultz, view-
cal Association: ers are asked to text their replies to a poll question.
Thus, vitamin E enters the category of therapies that were On June 23, 2013, after a monologue that included
promising in epidemiologic and observational studies but various issues on which the Republicans could not be
failed to deliver in adequately powered randomized con- trusted, Ed asked viewers to text in their responses
trolled trials. As in other studies, the “healthy user” bias must to the question, “Do Republicans care about the per-
be considered; i.e., the healthy lifestyle behaviors that charac- sonal struggles of undocumented immigrants?” Ap-
terize individuals who care enough about their health to take proximately 96.4% of those responding either by text
various supplements are actually responsible for the better or online said “no.”
health, but this is minimized with the rigorous trial design.6 (a) This poll has some of the same problems as Ann
(a) Reread Example 0.1 and the comments following it. Landers’ poll of Example 0.2. Do you think that the
Explain why observational studies suggest that Vitamin proportion of Americans who feel this way is higher,
E therapy reduces the risk of heart disease by describing lower, or close to 96.4%? Explain.
some lurking variables. (b) For this poll, 868 people responded. Among those
(b) A randomized controlled trial is a type of experiment. responding, 837 or 96.4% said “no.” Do you think
How does “healthy user bias” explain how people who the results would have been more trustworthy if 2500
take vitamin E supplements have better health in people had responded instead of 868? Explain.
observational studies but not in experiments? 0.4 Traffic fatalities and 9/11. Figure 0.4 provides informa-
0.2 The price of gas. In Example 0.4 we examined the tion on the number of fatal traffic accidents by month
variation in the price of gasoline from 1990 to 2013. for the years 1996–2001.8 The vertical blue line above
We saw both a regular pattern and the effects of each month gives the lowest to highest number of fa-
international events. Figure 0.3 plots the average tal crashes for that month for the years 1996–2000. For
annual retail price of gasoline from 1929 to 1990.7 example, in January the number of fatal crashes for the
Prices are adjusted for inflation. What overall patterns five years from 1996 through 2000 was between about
do you observe? What departures from the overall 2600 and 2900. The blue dots give the number of fatal

2.75
Gasoline price (dollars per gallon)

2.50

2.25

2.00

1.75

1.50

1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990
Year

FIGURE 0.3
The average annual retail price of gasoline, 1929 to 1990. Prices are adjusted for inflation.
10 CHAP TER 0 ■ Getting Started

3600

3400

Number of fatal crashes

3200

3000

2800

2600

2400

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Month

F I GU R E 0 . 4
Number of fatal traffic accidents in the United States in 1996 through 2000 versus 2001. For
each month, the blue lines represent the range of the number of fatal accidents from 1996
through 2000, and the blue dot gives the number of fatal accidents in 2001.

crashes for each month in 2001. The numbers of fatal (b) On September 11, 2001, terrorists hijacked four
crashes from January through August of 2001 follow the U.S. airplanes and used them to strike various targets
general pattern for the five preceding years as we see the on the East Coast. In part (a), we saw from the graph
blue dots are well within the blue lines for each month. that fatal traffic accidents seemed to be unusually
(a) What happened in the last three months of 2001? high in the three months following the attacks. Did
The numbers of fatal crashes in October through Decem- the terrorists cause fatal crashes to increase? Can you
ber of 2001 are consistently at or above the values for the give a simple explanation for the apparent increase in
previous five years. How can you tell this from the graph? fatal crashes during these months?
 PA R T

I
Moments by Mullineux/Shutterstock

Exploring Data EXPLORING DATA:

Variables and Distributions
CHAPTER 1 Picturing
Distributions with Graphs
CHAPTER 2 Describing

“W
hat do the data say?” is the first question we ask in any sta- Distributions with Numbers
tistical study. Data analysis answers this question by open- CHAPTER 3 The Normal
ended exploration of the data. The tools of data analysis are Distributions
graphs such as histograms and scatterplots, and numerical
measures such as means and correlations. At least as important as the tools are EXPLORING DATA:
principles that organize our thinking as we examine data. The seven chapters Relationships
in Part I present the principles and tools of statistical data analysis. They equip
you with skills that are immediately useful whenever you deal with numbers. CHAPTER 4 Scatterplots
These chapters reflect the strong emphasis on exploring data that charac- and Correlation
terizes modern statistics. Sometimes we hope to draw conclusions that apply CHAPTER 5 Regression
to a setting that goes beyond the data in hand. This is statistical inference, the
topic of much of the rest of the book. Data analysis is essential if we are to trust CHAPTER 6 Two-Way
the results of inference, but data analysis isn’t just preparation for inference. Tables*
Roughly speaking, you can always do data analysis but inference requires rather
special conditions.
CHAPTER 7 Exploring
One of the organizing principles of data analysis is to first look at one thing Data: Part I Review
at a time and then at relationships. Our presentation follows this principle. In
Chapters 1, 2, and 3 you will study variables and their distributions. Chapters 4,
5, and 6 concern relationships among variables. Chapter 7 reviews this part of
the text.

11
 CHAPTER

1
Photograph by the U.S. Census Bureau, Public Information Office (PIO)

Picturing Distributions In this chapter

we cover…
1.1 Individuals and variables

with Graphs 1.2 Categorical variables: pie

charts and bar graphs

1.3 Quantitative variables:

histograms

1.4 Interpreting histograms

S
tatistics is the science of data. The volume of data available to us is overwhelm- 1.5 Quantitative variables:
ing. For example, the U.S. Census Bureau’s American Community Survey col- stemplots
lects data from about 3,000,000 housing units each year. Astronomers work 1.6 Time plots
with data on tens of millions of galaxies. The checkout scanners at Walmart’s 8000
stores in 15 countries record hundreds of millions of transactions every week, all
saved to inform both Walmart and its suppliers. The first step in dealing with such
a flood of data is to organize our thinking about data. Fortunately, we can do this
without looking at millions of data points.

1.1 Individuals and variables

Any set of data contains information about some group of individuals. The infor-
mation is organized in variables.

13
 14 CHAP TER 1 ■ Picturing Distributions with Graphs

I n d i v i d u a l s a n d Va r i a bl e s
Individuals are the objects described by a set of data. Individuals may be people, but
they may also be animals or things.
A variable is any characteristic of an individual. A variable can take different values
for different individuals.

A college’s student database, for example, includes data about every currently
enrolled student. The students are the individuals described by the data set. For
each individual, the data contain the values of variables such as date of birth, choice
of major, and grade point average (GPA). In practice, any set of data is accompanied
by background information that helps us understand the data. When you plan a
statistical study or explore data from someone else’s work, ask yourself the following
questions:
1. Who? What individuals do the data describe? How many individuals appear in
DATA!
the data?
The documentary Particle
Fever recreates the excitement of 2. What? How many variables do the data contain? What are the exact defini-
the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) tions of these variables? In what unit of measurement is each variable re-
experiment. The LHC is a 17 mile corded? Weights, for example, might be recorded in pounds, in thousands of
tunnel, designed to accelerate a pounds, or in kilograms.
proton to close to the speed of light,
and then have protons collide to 3. Where? Student GPAs and SAT scores (or lack of them) will vary from college
help physicists understand how to college depending on many variables, including admissions “selectivity” for
the universe works. When the first the college.
collisions are recorded live in the
film, American physicist Monica 4. When? Students change from year to year, as do prices, salaries, and so forth.
Dunford exclaims, “We have data. 5. Why? What purpose do the data have? Do we hope to answer some specific
It’s unbelievable how fantastic this questions? Do we want answers for just these individuals or for some larger
data is.”
group that these individuals are supposed to represent? Are the individuals
and variables suitable for the intended purpose?
Some variables, such as a person’s sex or college major, simply place individuals
into categories. Others, like height and GPA, take numerical values for which we
can do arithmetic. It makes sense to give an average income for a company’s employ-
ees, but it does not make sense to give an “average” sex. We can, however, count the
numbers of female and male employees and do arithmetic with these counts.

C a t e g o r i c a l a n d Q u a n t i t a t i ve Va r i a bl e s
A categorical variable places an individual into one of several groups or categories.
A quantitative variable takes numerical values for which arithmetic operations
such as adding and averaging make sense. The values of a quantitative variable are
usually recorded with a unit of measurement such as seconds or kilograms.

E X A M P L E 1.1 The American Community Survey

At the U.S. Census Bureau website, you can view the detailed data collected by the
American Community Survey, though of course the identities of people and housing
units are protected. If you choose the file of data on people, the individuals are the
people living in the housing units contacted by the survey. Over 100 variables are
recorded for each individual. Figure 1.1 displays a very small part of the data.
 1.1 Individuals and Variables 15

FIG U RE 1.1
A spreadsheet displaying data from
A B C D E F G
1 SERIALNO PWGTP AGEP JWMNP SCHL SEX WAGP
the American Community Survey, for
2 283 187 66 6 1 24000 Example 1.1.
3 283 158 66 9 2 0
4 323 176 54 10 12 2 11900
5 346 339 37 10 11 1 6000
6 346 91 27 10 10 2 30000 Each row in the spreadsheet
7 370 234 53 10 13 1 83000 contains data on one individual.
8 370 181 46 15 10 2 74000
9 370 155 18 9 2 0
10 487 233 26 14 2 800
11 487 146 23 12 2 8000
12 511 236 53 9 2 0
13 511 131 53 11 1 0
14 515 213 38 11 2 12500
15 515 194 40 9 1 800
16 515 221 18 20 9 1 2500
17 515 193 11 3 1
eg01-01

Each row records data on one individual. Each column contains the values of one
variable for all the individuals. Translated from the U.S. Census Bureau’s abbreviations,
the variables are
SERIALNO An identifying number for the household.
PWGTP Weight in pounds.
AGEP Age in years.
JWMNP Travel time to work in minutes.
SCHL Highest level of education. The numbers designate categories,
not specific grades. For example, 9 ! high school
graduate, 10 ! some college but no degree,
and 13 ! bachelor’s degree.
SEX Sex, designated by 1 ! male and 2 ! female.
WAGP Wage and salary income last year, in dollars.
Look at the highlighted row in Figure 1.1. This individual is a 53-year-old man
who weighs 234 pounds, travels 10 minutes to work, has a bachelor’s degree, and
earned $83,000 last year.
In addition to the household serial number, there are six variables. Education and
sex are categorical variables. The values for education and sex are stored as numbers,
but these numbers are just labels for the categories and have no units of measure-
ment. The other four variables are quantitative. Their values do have units. These vari-
ables are weight in pounds, age in years, travel time in minutes, and income in dollars.
The purpose of the American Community Survey is to collect data that represent
the entire nation to guide government policy and business decisions. To do this, the
households contacted are chosen at random from all households in the country. We
will see in Chapter 8 why choosing at random is a good idea. ■

Most data tables follow this format—each row is an individual, and each column
is a variable. The data set in Figure 1.1 appears in a spreadsheet program that has spreadsheet
rows and columns ready for your use. Spreadsheets are commonly used to enter and
transmit data and to do simple calculations.
16 CHAP TER 1 ■ Picturing Distributions with Graphs

Online Resources
• The Snapshots video, Data and Distributions, provides a nice introduction to
the ideas of this section.
• The StatClips Examples video, Basic Principles of Exploring Data Example
A, describes the variables collected in the American Community Survey from
Example 1.1.

Apply Your Knowledge

1.1 Fuel Economy. Here is a small part of a data set that describes the fuel
economy (in miles per gallon (mpg)) of model year 2014 motor vehicles:

Make and Vehicle Transmission Number of City Highway Annual

Model Class Type Cylinders mpg mpg Fuel Cost
…

Chevrolet Corvette Two-seater Manual 8 17 29 $2,650

Nissan Cube Small station wagon Manual 4 25 30 $1,850
Ford Fusion Midsize Automatic 4 23 36 $1,800
Chevrolet Impala Large Automatic 6 18 28 $2,400
…

The annual fuel cost is an estimate assuming 15,000 miles of travel a year (55%
city and 45% highway) and an average fuel price.
(a) What are the individuals in this data set?
(b) For each individual, what variables are given? Which of these variables
are categorical, and which are quantitative? In what units are the
quantitative variables measured?

1.2 Students and Exercise. You are preparing to study the exercise habits of
college students. Describe two categorical variables and two quantitative vari-
ables that you might measure for each student. Give the units of measurement
for the quantitative variables.

1.2 Categorical variables: pie charts and

bar graphs
Statistical tools and ideas help us examine data in order to describe their main
exploratory data analysis features. This examination is called exploratory data analysis. Like an explorer
crossing unknown lands, we want first to simply describe what we see. Here are two
principles that help us organize our exploration of a set of data.

Exploring Data
1. Begin by examining each variable by itself. Then move on to study the relation-
ships among the variables.
2. Begin with a graph or graphs. Then add numerical summaries of specific aspects
of the data.
 1.2 Categorical Variables: Pie Charts and Bar Graphs 17

We will follow these principles in organizing our learning. Chapters 1 to 3 present

methods for describing a single variable. We study relationships among several vari-
ables in Chapters 4 to 6. In each case, we begin with graphical displays, then add
numerical summaries for more complete description.
The proper choice of graph depends on the nature of the variable. To examine a
single variable, we usually want to display its distribution.

D i s t r i bu t i o n o f a Va r i a bl e
The distribution of a variable tells us what values it takes and how often it takes
these values.
The values of a categorical variable are labels for the categories. The distribution of
a categorical variable lists the categories and gives either the count or the percent
of individuals who fall into each category.

E X A M P L E 1. 2 Which Major?
Approximately 1.5 million full-time, first-year students enrolled in colleges and uni-

DATA
versities in 2013. What do they plan to study? Here are data on the percents of
first-year students who plan to major in several discipline areas:1 MAJORS

Field of Study Percent of Students

Arts and humanities 10.6
Biological sciences 14.7
Business 14.5
Education 5.2
Engineering 11.2
Health professions 12.8
Math and computer science 3.7
Physical sciences 2.4
Social sciences 10.1
Other majors and undeclared 14.9
Total 100.1

It’s a good idea to check data for consistency. The percents should add to 100%. In
fact, they add to 100.1%. What happened? Each percent is rounded to the nearest
tenth. The exact percents would add to 100, but the rounded percents only come
close. This is roundoff error. Roundoff errors don’t point to mistakes in our work, roundoff error
just to the effect of rounding off results. ■

Columns of numbers take time to read. You can use a pie chart or a bar graph
to display the distribution of a categorical variable more vividly. Figures 1.2 and 1.3
illustrate these displays for the distribution of intended college majors.
Pie charts show the distribution of a categorical variable as a “pie” whose slices pie charts
are sized by the counts or percents for the categories. Pie charts are awkward to
make by hand, but software will do the job for you. A pie chart must include
!
CAUTION
all the categories that make up a whole. Use a pie chart only when you want
to emphasize each category’s relation to the whole. We need the “Other majors
and undeclared” category in Example 1.2 to complete the whole (all intended
majors) and allow us to make the pie chart in Figure 1.2.
 18 CHAP TER 1 ■ Picturing Distributions with Graphs

FIG UR E 1 . 2 Other Arts/humanities

You can use a pie chart to display the
distribution of a categorical variable. Biological sciences
This pie chart shows the distribution of Social sciences
intended majors of students entering
college. Physical sciences
Math/Comp Business

This slice occupies 14.5% of the

Health Prof
Education pie because 14.5% of students
Engineering plan to major in business.

bar graphs Bar graphs represent each category as a bar. The bar heights show the category
counts or percents. Bar graphs are easier to make than pie charts and also easier
to read. Figure 1.3 displays two bar graphs of the data on intended majors. The
first orders the bars alphabetically by field of study (with “Other” at the end). It is
often better to arrange the bars in order of height, as in Figure 1.3(b). This helps us
immediately see which majors appear most often.
Bar graphs are more flexible than pie charts. Both graphs can display the distri-
bution of a categorical variable, but a bar graph can also compare any set of quanti-
ties that are measured in the same units.

This bar has height 12.8%

because 12.8% of students
16

16
Percent of students who plan to major

Percent of students who plan to major

plan to major in the health

professions.
14

14
12

12
10

10
8

8
6

6
4

4
2

2
0

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Field of study Field of study

(a) (b)

FIGURE 1.3
Bar graphs of the distribution of intended majors of students entering college. In part (a), the bars follow the
alphabetical order of fields of study. In part (b), the same bars appear in order of height.

E X A M P L E 1. 3 How Do 12–24s Learn about New Music?

What sources do Americans aged 12–24 years use to keep up-to-date and learn
DATA

about music? Among those saying it was important to keep up with music, Arbitron
MUSIC
asked which of several sources they had ever used. Here are the percents who have
used each source.2
Another Random Scribd Document
with Unrelated Content
Lady Brute.
N o Epilogue!

Belinda. I swear I know of none. }

Lord! How shall we excuse it to the Town? }

Bel. Why, we must e'en say something of our own. }

Lady Brute. Our own! Ay, that must needs be precious stuff.

Bel. I'll lay my Life, they'll like it well enough.

Come, faith, begin——

Lady Brute. Excuse me, after you.

Bel. Nay, pardon me for that, I know my Cue.

Lady Brute. O for the World, I would not have Precedence.

Bel. O Lord!

Lady Brute. I swear——

Bel. O fye!

Lady Brute. I'm all Obedience.

First then, know all, before our Doom is fixt,
The Third Day is for us——

Bel. Nay, and the Sixth.

Lady Brute. We speak not from the Poet now, nor is it

His Cause—(I want a Rhyme)

Bel. That we sollicit.

Lady Brute. Then sure you cannot have the Hearts to be

severe
And damn us——

Bel. Damn us! Let 'em if they dare.

Lady Brute. Why, if they should, what Punishment remains?

 Lady Brute. Why, if they should, what Punishment remains?

Bel. Eternal Exile from behind our Scenes.

Lady Brute. But if they're kind, that Sentence we'll recal.

We can be grateful——

Bel. And have wherewithal.

Lady Brute. But at Grand Treaties hope not to be trusted,

Before Preliminaries are adjusted.

Bel. You know the Time, and we appoint the Place;

Where, if you please, we'll meet and sign the
Peace.

Upon the revival of this Play in 1725, Sir John Vanbrugh thought
proper to write the two following Scenes, in the room of those
printed Page 166,-168, 173, &c. &c.
 A C T IV.
S C E N E, Covent-Garden.

Enter Lord Rake, Sir John, &c. with

Swords drawn.
Lord Rake.
I
s the Dog dead?

Col. Bully. No, damn him, I heard him wheeze.

Lord Rake. How the Witch his Wife howl'd?
Col. Bully. Aye, she'll alarm the Watch presently.
Lord Rake. Appear, Knight, then: Come, you have a good Cause to fight for,
there's a Man murder'd.
Sir John. Is there? Then let his Ghost be satisfy'd: for I'll sacrifice a Constable
to it presently, and burn his Body upon his wooden Chair.
Enter a Taylor, with a Bundle under his
Arm.
Col. Bully. How now! what have we got here? A Thief?
Taylor. No an't please you, I'm no Thief.
Lord Rake. That we'll see presently: Here! let the General examine him.
Sir John. Ay, ay, let me examine him; and I'll lay a hundred Pound I find him
guilty in spite of his Teeth——for he looks—like a——sneaking Rascal. Come,
Sirrah, without Equivocation or mental Reservation, tell me of what Opinion
you are, and what Calling; for by them——I shall guess at your Morals.
Taylor. An't please you, I'm a Dissenting Journeyman Woman's Taylor.
Sir John. Then, Sirrah, you love Lying by your Religion, and Theft by your
Trade: And so, that your Punishment may be suitable to your Crimes——I'll
have you first gagg'd——and then hang'd.
Tayl. Pray, good worthy Gentlemen, don't abuse me: Indeed I'm an honest
Man, and a good Workman, tho' I say it, that shou'd not say it.
Sir John. No Words, Sirrah, but attend your Fate.
Lord Rake. Let me see what's in that Bundle.
Tayl. An't please you, it's my Lady's short Cloak and Sack.
Sir John. What Lady, you Reptile, you?
Tayl. My Lady Brute, an't please your Honour.
Sir John. My Lady Brute! my Wife! the Robe of my Wife—with Reverence let
me approach it. The dear Angel is always taking Care of me in Danger, and
has sent me this Suit of Armour to protect me in this Day of Battle; on they
go.
All. O brave Knight!
Lord Rake. Live Don Quixote the Second!
Sir John. Sancho, my 'Squire, help me on with my Armour.
Tayl. O dear Gentlemen! I shall be quite undone if you take the Sack.
Sir John. Retire, Sirrah! and since you carry off your Skin, go home and be
happy.
Tayl. I think I'd e'en as good follow the Gentleman's Advice, for if I dispute
any longer, who knows but the whim may take 'em to case me—These
Courtiers are fuller of Tricks than they are of Money: they'll sooner break a
Man's Bones, than pay his Bill.
[Exit Tayl.
Sir John. So! how d'ye like my shapes now?
Lord Rake. To a Miracle! He looks like a Queen of the Amazons—But to your
Arms! Gentlemen! The Enemy's upon their March—here's the Watch—
Sir John. 'Oons! if it were Alexander the Great, at the Head of his Army, I
would drive him into a Horse-Pond.
All. Huzza! O brave Knight!
Enter Watchmen.
Sir John. See! Here he comes, with all his Greeks about him—Follow me,
Boys.
Watch. Hey-dey! Who have we got here?—Stand.
Sir John. May-hap not!
Watch. What are you all doing here in the Streets at this time o'night? And
who are you, Madam, that seem to be at the Head of this noble Crew?
Sir John. Sirrah, I am Bonduca, Queen of the Welchmen; and with a Leek as
long as my Pedigree, I will destroy your Roman Legion in an Instant—Britons,
strike home.
[They fight off. Watch. return with Sir
John.
Watch. So! We have got the Queen, however! We'll make her pay well for her
Ransom—Come, Madam, will your Majesty please to walk before the
Constable?
Sir John. The Constable's a Rascal! And you are a Son of a Whore!
Watch. A most noble Reply, truly! If this be her royal Style, I'll warrant her
Maids of Honour prattle prettily: But we'll teach you some of our Court Dialect
before we part with you, Princess—Away with her to the Round-house.
Sir John. Hands off, you Ruffians! My Honour's dearer to me than my Life; I
hope you won't be uncivil.
Watch. Away with her.
[Exeunt.

S C E N E, A Street.

Enter Constable and Watchmen, with

Sir John.
Constab. Come, forsooth, come along, if you please! I once in Compassion
thought to have seen you safe home this Morning: But you have been so
rampant and abusive all Night, I shall see what the Justice of Peace will say to
you.
Sir John. And you shall see what I'll say to the Justice of Peace.
[Watchman knocks at the Door.
Enter Servant.
Constab. Is Mr. Justice at home?
Serv. Yes.
Constab. Pray acquaint his Worship we have got an unruly Woman here, and
desire to know what he'll please to have done with her.
Serv. I'll acquaint my Master.
 [Exit Serv.
Sir John. Hark you, Constable, what cuckoldly Justice is this?
Const. One that knows how to deal with such Romps as you are, I'll warrant
you.
Enter Justice.
Just. Well, Mr. Constable, what is the matter there?
Const. An't please your Worship, this here comical sort of a Gentlewoman has
committed great Outrages to-night. She has been frolicking with my Lord
Rake and his Gang; they attacked the Watch, and I hear there has been a
Man kill'd: I believe 'tis they have done it.
Sir John. Sir, there may have been Murder, for aught I know; and 'tis a great
Mercy there has not been a Rape too—that Fellow wou'd have ravish'd me.
2d Watch. Ravish! Ravish! O lud! O lud! O lud! Ravish her! Why, please your
Worship, I heard Mr. Constable say he believed she was little better than a
Maphrodite.
Just. Why, truly, she does seem a little masculine about the Mouth.
2d Watch. Yes, and about the Hands too, an't please your Worship; I did but
offer in mere civility to help her up the Steps into our Apartment, and with her
gripen Fist—ay, just so, Sir.
[Sir John knocks him down.
Sir John. I fell'd him to the Ground like an Ox.
Just. Out upon this boisterous Woman! Out upon her.
Sir John. Mr. Justice, he wou'd have been uncivil! It was in Defence of my
Honour, and I demand Satisfaction.
2d Watch. I hope your Worship will satisfy her Honour in Bridewell; that Fist
of hers will make an admirable Hemp-beater.
Sir John. Sir, I hope you will protect me against that libidinous Rascal; I am a
Woman of Quality and Virtue too, for all I am in an Undress this Morning.
Just. Why, she has really the Air of a Sort of a Woman a little something out
of the common——Madam, if you expect I shou'd be favourable to you, I
desire I may know who you are.
Sir John. Sir, I am any body, at your Service.
Just. Lady, I desire to know your Name?
Sir John. Sir, my Name's Mary.
Just. Ay, but your Sur-name, Madam?
Sir John. Sir, my Sur-name's the very same with my Husband's.
Just. A strange Woman this! Who is your Husband, pray?
Sir John. Sir John.
Just. Sir John who?
Sir John. Sir John Brute.
Just. Is it possible, Madam, you can be my Lady Brute?
Sir John. That happy Woman, Sir, am I; only a little in my Merriment to-night.
Just. I am concern'd for Sir John.
Sir John. Truly, so am I.
Just. I have heard he's an honest Gentleman——
Sir John. As ever drank.
Just. Good lack! Indeed, Lady, I'm sorry he has such a Wife.
Sir John. I am sorry he has any Wife at all.
Just. And so perhaps may he——I doubt you have not given him a very good
Taste of Matrimony.
Sir John. Taste, Sir! Sir, I have scorn'd to stint him to a Taste, I have given
him a full Meal of it.
Just. Indeed I believe so! But pray, fair Lady, may he have given you any
Occasion for this extraordinary Conduct?—Does he not use you well?
Sir John. A little upon the rough sometimes.
Just. Ay, any Man may be out of Humour now and then.
Sir John. Sir, I love Peace and Quiet, and when a Woman don't find that at
home, she's apt sometimes to comfort herself with a few innocent Diversions
abroad.
Just. I doubt he uses you but too well. Pray how does he as to that weighty
thing, Money? Does he allow you what is proper of that?
Sir John. Sir, I have generally enough to pay the reckoning, if this Son of a
Whore of a Drawer wou'd but bring his Bill.
Just. A strange Woman this—Does he spend a reasonable Portion of his time
at home, to the Comfort of his Wife and Children?
Sir John. He never gave his Wife cause to repine at his being abroad in his
Life.
Just. Pray, Madam, how may he be in the grand matrimonial Point——Is he
true to your Bed?
Sir John. Chaste! Oons! This Fellow asks so many impertinent Questions!
I'gad, I believe it is the Justice's Wife in the Justice's Clothes.
Just. 'Tis a great pity he should have been thus disposed of—Pray, Madam,
(and then I've done) what may be your Ladyship's common Method of Life, if
I may presume so far?
Sir John. Why, Sir, much that of a Woman of Quality.
Just. Pray how may you generally pass your time, Madam? Your Morning, for
example.
Sir John. Sir, like a Woman of Quality——I wake about two o'Clock in the
Afternoon——I stretch—and make a sign for my Chocolate——When I have
drank three Cups—I slide down again upon my Back, with my Arms over my
Head, while my two Maids put on my Stockings——Then hanging upon their
Shoulders, I am trail'd to my great Chair, where I sit——and yawn——for my
Breakfast——If it don't come presently, I lie down upon my Couch to say my
Prayers, while my Maid reads me the Play-bills.
Just. Very well, Madam.
Sir John. When the Tea is brought in, I drink twelve regular Dishes, with eight
Slices of Bread and Butter——And half an Hour after, I send to the Cook to
know if the Dinner is almost ready.
Just. So! Madam!
Sir John. By that time my Head is half drest, I hear my Husband swearing
himself into a State of Perdition, that the Meat's all cold upon the Table; to
amend which, I come down in an Hour more, and have it sent back to the
Kitchen, to be all drest over again.
Just. Poor Man!
Sir John. When I have din'd, and my idle Servants are presumptuously set
down at their Ease, to do so too, I call for my Coach, to go visit fifty dear
Friends, of whom I hope I shall never find one at home, while I shall live.
Just. So! There's the Morning and Afternoon pretty well dispos'd of—Pray,
Madam, how do you pass your Evenings?
Sir John. Like a Woman of Spirit, Sir, a great Spirit. Give me a Box and Dice—
Seven's the main, Oons! Sir, I set you a hundred Pound! Why, do you think
Women are married now-a-Days, to sit at home and mend Napkins? Sir, we
have nobler ways of passing time.
Just. Mercy upon us, Mr. Constable, what will this Age come to?
Constab. What will it come to, indeed, if such Women as these are not set in
the Stocks?
Sir John. Sir, I have a little urgent Business calls upon me; and therefore I
desire the Favour of you to bring Matters to a Conclusion.
Just. Madam, if I were sure that Business were not to commit more Disorders,
I wou'd release you.
Sir John. None——by my virtue.
Just. Then, Mr. Constable, you may discharge her.
Sir John. Sir, your very humble Servant. If you please to accept of a Bottle——
Just. I thank you, kindly, Madam; but I never drink in a Morning. Good by
t'ye.
Sir John. Good-by-t'ye, good Sir.
[Exit Justice.
So——now, Mr. Constable, shall you and I go pick up a Whore together?
Constab. No, thank you, Madam; my Wife's enough to satisfy any reasonable
Man.
Sir John. [Aside.] He, he, he, he, he——the Fool is married, then. Well, you
won't go?
Constab. Not I, truly.
Sir John. Then I'll go by myself; and you and your Wife may be damn'd.
[Exit Sir John.
Constable. gazing after her.] Why, God-a-mercy, Lady.
[Exeunt.
 ESOP:
A
COMEDY.
 PREFACE.

T
o speak for a Play, if it cannot speak for itself, is vain; and if it can, it is
needless. For one of these Reasons (I cannot yet tell which, for it is now
but the second Day of acting) I resolve to say nothing for Esop, though I
know he would be glad of Help; for let the best happen that can, his Journey
is up Hill, with a dead English Weight at the Tail of him.
At Paris, indeed, he scrambled up something faster (for it was up Hill there,
too) than I am afraid he will do here: The French having more Mercury in
their Heads, and less Beef and Pudding in their Bellies. Our Solidity may set
hard, what their Folly makes easy; for Fools I own they are, you know we
have found them so in the Conduct of the War; I wish we may do so in the
Management of the Peace; but that is neither Esop's Business nor mine.
This Play, Gentlemen (or one not much unlike it), was writ in French about six
Years since by one Monsieur Boursaut; it was play'd at Paris by the French
Comedians, and this was its Fate.
The first Day it appeared, it was routed (People seldom being fond of what
they do not understand, their own sweet Persons excepted). The second (by
the help of some bold Knights-Errant) it rallied; the third it advanced; the
fourth it gave a vigorous Attack; and the fifth put all the Feathers in Town to
the scamper, pursuing them on to the fourteenth, and then they cried out
Quarter.
It is not reasonable to expect Esop should gain so great a Victory here, since
it is possible, by fooling with his Sword, I may have turned the Edge on't. For
I confess in the Translation I have not at all stuck to the Original; nay, I have
gone farther: I have wholly added the fifth Act, and crouded a Country
Gentleman into the fourth; for which I ask Monsieur Boursaut's Pardon with
all my Heart, but doubt I never shall obtain it for bringing him into such
Company. Though, after all, had I been so complaisant to have waited on his
Play Word for Word, it is possible, even that might not have ensured the
Success of it; for though it swam in France, it might have sunk in England.
Their Country abounds in Cork, ours in Lead.
 PROLOGUE.

G allants, we never yet produc'd a Play

With greater Fears than this we act to-day;

Barren of all the Graces of the Stage,
Barren of all that entertains this Age.
No Hero, no Romance, no Plot, no Shew,
No Rape, no Bawdy, no Intrigue, no Beau:
There's nothing in't with which we use to please ye;
With downright dull Instruction w'are to tease ye;
The Stage turns Pulpit, and the World's so fickle,
The Play-House in a Whim turns Conventicle.
But Preaching here must prove a hungry Trade;
The Patentees will find so, I'm afraid:
For tho' with heavenly Zeal you all abound,
As by your Lives and Morals may be found;
Tho' every Female here o'erflows with Grace,
And chaste Diana's written in her Face;
Tho' Maids renounce the Sweets of Fornication,
And one lewd Wife's not left in all the Nation;
Tho' Men grow true, and the foul Fiend defy;
Tho' Tradesmen cheat no more, nor Lawyers lye;
Tho' not one Spot be found on Levi's Tribe,
Nor one soft Courtier that will touch a Bribe;
Yet in the midst of such religious Days,
Sermons have never borne the Price of Plays.
 Dramatis Personæ.

MEN.
Esop, Mr. Cibber.
Learchus, Governor of Sysicus, Mr. Dogget.
Oronces, in love with Euphronia, Mr. Harland.
WOMEN.
Euphronia, Daughter to Learchus, in love with Oronces, Mrs. Temple.
Doris, her Nurse, Mrs. Verbruggen.
People who come to Esop, upon several Occasions, independent one of
another.
Mr. Pinkethman and
Two Country Tradesmen,
Mr. Smeton.
Roger, a Country Bumpkin, Mr. Haynes.
Quaint, a Herald, Mr. Pinkethman.
Fruitful, an Inn-keeper, Mr. Smeton.
A Country Gentleman, Mr. Pinkethman.
A Priest, Musicians, &c.
Hortensia, an affected learned Lady, Mrs. Kent.
Aminta, a lewd Mother, Mrs. Willis.
Forge-Will, a Scrivener's Widow, Mrs. Finch.
Fruitful, Wife to the Inn-keeper, Mrs. Powell.

ESOP.
 A C T I. S C E N E I.
S C E N E, Learchus's House.
Enter Learchus, Euphronia, and Doris.
Lear.
At length I am blest with the sight of the World's Wonder, the Delight

of Mankind, the incomparable Esop. You had time to observe him last Night,
Daughter, as he sat at Supper with me. Tell me how you like him, Child; is he
not a charming Person?
Euph. Charming!
Lear. What say'st thou to him, Doris? Thou art a good Judge, a Wench of a
nice Palate.
Dor. You wou'd not have me flatter, Sir?
Lear. No, speak thy Thoughts boldly.
Dor. Boldly, you say?
Lear. Boldly, I say.
Dor. Why, then, Sir, my Opinion of the Gentleman is, that he's uglier than an
old Beau.
Lear. How! Impudence.
Dor. Nay, if you are angry, Sir, second Thoughts are best; he's as proper as a
Pikeman, holds up his Head like a Dancing-Master, has the Shape of a Barb,
the Face of an Angel, the Voice of a Cherubim, the Smell of a Civet-Cat——
Lear. In short, thou art Fool enough not to be pleas'd with him.
Dor. Excuse me for that, Sir; I have Wit enough to make myself merry with
him——
Lear. If his Body's deform'd, his Soul is beautiful: Would to kind Heaven, as he
is, my Daughter cou'd but find the means to please him!
Euph. To what End, dear Father?
Lear. That he might be your Husband, dear Daughter.
Euph. My Husband! Shield me, kind Heaven——
Dor. Psha! he has a mind to make us laugh, that's all.
Lear. Esop, then, is not worth her Care, in thy Opinion?
Dor. Why, truly, Sir, I'm always for making suitable Matches, and don't much
approve of breeding Monsters. I wou'd have nothing marry a Baboon, but
what has been got by a Monkey.
Lear. How dar'st thou liken so incomparable a Man to so contemptible a
Beast?
Dor.. Ah, the Inconstancy of this World! Out of sight, out f Mind. Your little
Monkey is scarce cold in his Grave, and you have already forgot what you us'd
so much to admire: Do but call him to remembrance, Sir, in his red Coat, new
Gloves, little Hat, and clean Linen; then discharge your Conscience, utter the
Truth from your Heart, and tell us whether he was not the prettier Gentleman
of the two—By my Virginity, Sir, (tho' that's but a slippery Oath, you'll say) had
they made love to me together, Esop should have worn the Willow.
Lear. Since nothing but an Animal will please thee, 'tis pity my Monkey had
not that Virginity thou hast sworn by. But I, whom Wisdom charms even in
the homeliest Dress, can never think the much-deserving Esop unworthy of
my Daughter.
Dor. Now, in the Name of Wonder, what is't you so admire in him?
 Lear. Hark, and thou shalt know; but you, Euphronia,
Be you more especially attentive.
'Tis true he's plain; but that's, my Girl, a Trifle.
All manly Beauty's seated in the Soul;
And that of Esop, Envy's self must own,
Outshines whate'er the World has yet produc'd.
Crœsus, the prosperous Favourite of Heaven;
Crœsus, the happiest Potentate on Earth;
Whose Treasure (tho' immense) is the least Part
Of what he holds from Providence's Care,
Leans on his Shoulder as his grand Support,
Admires his Wisdom, doats upon his Truth,
And makes him Pilot to Imperial Sway.
But in this elevated Post of Power,
What's his Employ? Where does he point his Thoughts?
To live in Splendour, Luxury, and Ease,
Do endless Mischiefs, by neglecting Good,
And build his Family on other's Ruins?
No:
He serves the Prince, and serves the People too;
Is useful to the Rich, and helps the Poor;
There's nothing stands neglected, but himself.
With constant Pain, and yet with constant Joy,
From Place to Place throughout the Realm he goes,
With useful Lessons, form'd to every Rank:
The People learn Obedience from his Tongue,
The Magistrate is guided in Command,
The Prince is minded of a Father's Care,
The Subjects taught the Duty of a Child.
And as 'tis dangerous to be bold with Truth,
He often calls for Fable to his Aid,
Where, under abject Names of Beasts and Birds,
Virtue shines out, and Vice is cloath'd in Shame.
And thus, by inoffensive Wisdom's Force,
He conquers Folly wheresoe'er he moves:
This is his Portrait.

Dor. A very good Picture of a very ill Face!

Lear. Well, Daughter; what, not a Word? Is it possible any thing that I am
Father of can be untouch'd with so much Merit?
Euph. My Duty may make all things possible: But Esop is so ugly, Sir—
Lear. His Soul has so much Beauty in't, your Reason ought to blind your Eyes:
Besides, my Interest is concern'd; his Power alarms me. I know throughout
the Kingdom he's the Scourge of evil Magistrates, turns out Governors when
they turn Tyrants; breaks Officers for false Musters; excludes Judges from
giving Sentence, when they have been absent during the Trial; hangs Lawyers
when they take Fees on both Sides; forbids Physicians to take Money of those
they don't cure. 'Tis true, my Innocence ought to banish my Fears: But my
Government, Child, is too delicious a Morsel, not to set many a frail Mouth a-
watering. Who knows what Accusations Envy may produce? But all wou'd be
secure, if thou could'st touch the Heart of Esop. Let me blow up thy Ambition,
Girl; the Fire of that will make thy Eyes sparkle at him. [She sighs.]——What's
that Sigh for, now? Ha! A young Husband, by my Conscience: Ah Daughter,
hadst thou a young Husband, he'd make thee sigh indeed. I'll tell thee what
he's compos'd of. He has a Wig full of Pulvilio, a Pocket full of Dice, a Heart
full of Treason, a Mouth full of Lyes, a Belly full of Drink, a Carcase full of
Plaisters, a Tail full of Pox, and a Head full of——nothing. There's his Picture:
wear it at thy Heart, if thou can'st but here comes one of greater Worth.
Enter Esop.
Lear. Good Morning to my noble Lord; your Excellency——
Esop. Softly, good Governor: I'm a poor Wanderer from Place to Place; too
weak to train the Weight of Grandeur with me! The Name of Excellency's not
for me.
Lear. My noble Lord, 'tis due to your Imploy; your Predecessors all——
Esop. My Predecessors all deserv'd it, Sir; they were great Men in Wisdom,
Birth and Service; whilst I, a poor, unknown, decrepid Wretch, mounted aloft
for Fortune's Pastime, expect each Moment to conclude the Farce, by sinking
to the Mud from whence I sprung.
Lear. Great Crœsus's Gratitude will still support you; his Coffers all are open to
your Will, your future Fortune's wholly in your Power.
Esop. But 'tis a Power that I shall ne'er employ.
Lear. Why so, my Lord?
Esop. I'll tell you, Sir.
 A hungry Goat, who had not eat
Some Nights and Days——(for want of Meat)
Was kindly brought at last,
By Providence's Care,
To better Cheer,
After a more than penitential Fast.
He found a Barn well stor'd with Grain:
To enter in requir'd some Pain;
But a delicious Bait
Makes the Way easy, tho' the Pass is strait.
Our Guest observing various Meats,
He put on a good modish Face,
He takes his Place,
He ne'er says Grace,
But where he likes, he there falls to and eats.
At length, with jaded Teeth and Jaws,
He made a Pause;
And finding still some room,
Fell to as he had done before,
For time to come laid in his Store;
And when his Guts cou'd hold no more,
He thought of going home.
But here he met the Glutton's Curse;
He found his Belly grown so great,
'Twas vain to think of a Retreat,
Till he had render'd all he had eat,
And well he far'd no worse.

To the Application, Governor.

Lear. 'Tis easy to be made, my Lord.
Esop. I'm glad on't, Truth can never be too clear. [Seeing Euph.] Is this young
Damsel your fair Daughter, Sir?
Lear. 'Tis my Daughter, my good Lord: Fair too, if she appears such in the
Eyes of the unerring Esop.
Esop. [Going up to salute her.] I never saw so beautiful a Creature.
Lear. [Aside.] Now's the time; kiss soft, Girl, and fire him.
Esop. [Gazing at her.] How partial's Nature 'twixt her Form and mine!
Lear. [Aside.] Look, look, look, how he gazes at her!—--Cupid's hard at work, I
see that already. Slap; there he hits him—if the Wench would but do her Part.
But see, see, how the perverse young Baggage stands biting her Thumbs, and
won't give him one kind Glance——Ah the sullen Jade! Had it been a
handsome strong Dog, of five-and-twenty, she'd a fall'n a coquetting on't,
with every Inch about her. But may be 'tis I that spoils Sport; I'll make a
Pretence to leave them together. Will your Lordship please to drink any Coffee
this Morning?
Esop. With all my Heart, Governor.
Lear. Your Lordship will give me leave to go and order it myself; for unless I
am by, 'tis never perfect.
Esop. Provided you leave me this fair Maid in Hostage for your Return, I
consent.
Lear. My good Lord does my Daughter too much Honour. Ah that the Wench
wou'd but do her Part! [Aside going off.]——Hark, you, Hussy——[Turning
back to Euphronia, aside.]——You can give yourself Airs sometimes, you know
you can. Do you remember what work you made with yourself at Church
t'other Day? Play your Tricks over again, once more, for my Pleasure, and let
me have a good Account of this Statesman, or, d'ye hear?——You shall die a
Maid; go chew upon that; go.
[Exit Lear.
Esop. Here I am left, fair Damsel, too much expos'd to your Charms, not to
fall your Victim.
Euph. Your Fall will then be due to your own Weakness, Sir; for, Heaven's my
Witness, I neither endeavour nor wish to wound you.
Esop. I understand you, Lady; your Heart's already dispos'd of; 'tis seldom
otherways, at your Age.
Euph. My Heart dispos'd of!
Dor. Nay, never mince the Matter, Madam. The Gentleman looks like a civil
Gentleman, e'en confess the Truth to him: He has a good Interest with your
Father, and no Doubt will employ it to break the Heathenish Match he
proposes to you. [To Esop.] Yes, Sir, my young Lady has been in love these
two Years, and that with as pretty a Fellow as ever entered a Virgin's Heart;
tall, strait, young, vigorous, good Clothes, long Perriwig, clean Linen; in brief,
he has every thing that's necessary to set a young Lady a-longing, and to stay
it when he has done: but her Father, whose Ambition makes him turn Fool in
his old Age, comes with a back Stroke upon us, and spoils all our Sport.
Wou'd you believe it, Sir? He has propos'd to her to-day the most confounded
ugly Fellow! Look, if the very Thoughts of him don't set the poor Thing a-
crying! And you, Sir, have so much Power with the old Gentleman, that one
Word from you would set us all right again. If he will have her a Wife, in the
Name of Venus, let him provide her a handsome Husband, and not throw her
into the Paws of a Thing, that Nature, in a merry Humour, has made half Man,
half Monkey.
Esop. Pray, what's this Monster's Name, Lady?
Euph. No matter for his Name, Sir; my Father will know what you mean, at
first Word.
Esop. But you shou'd not always chuse by the Outside alone: believe me, fair
Damsel, a fine Perriwig keeps many a Fool's Head from the Weather: Have a
Care of your young Gallant.
Dor. There's no Danger, I have examin'd him; his Inside's as good as his out! I
say, he has Wit, and I think I know.
Euph. Nay, she says true; he's even a Miracle of Wit and Beauty: Did you but
see him, you'd be yourself my Rival.
Esop. Then you are resolv'd against the Monster?
Dor. Fy, Sir, fy; I wonder you'll put her in Mind of that foul, frightful Thing: We
shall have her dream of nothing all Night but Bats and Owls, and Toads and
Hedge-hogs; and then we shall have such a squeaking and squalling with her,
the whole House will be in an Uproar: Therefore, pray, Sir, name him no more,
but use your Interest with her Father, that she may never hear of him again.
Esop. But if I shou'd be so generous to save you from the old Gallant, what
shall I say for your young one?
Euph. O, Sir, you may venture to enlarge upon his Perfections; you need not
fear saying too much in his Praise.
Dor. And pray, Sir, be as copious upon the Defects of t'other; you need not
fear out-running the Text there, neither, say the worst you can.
Euph. You may say, the first is the most graceful Man that Asia ever brought
forth.
Dor. And you may say the latter is the most deform'd Monster that Copulation
ever produc'd.
Euph. Tell him that Oronces (for that is his dear Name) has all the Virtues that
compose a perfect Hero.
Dor. And tell him, that Pigmy has all the Vices that go to equip an Attorney.
Euph. That to one I cou'd be true to the last Moment of my Life.
Dor. That for t'other, she'd cuckold him the very Day of her Marriage. This, Sir,
in few Words, is the Theme you are desir'd to preach upon.
Esop. I never yet had one that furnish'd me with more Matter.
Enter Servant.
Ser. My Lord, there's a Lady below desires to speak with your Honour.
Esop. What Lady?
Ser. 'Tis my Lady—my Lady—[To Doris.] The Lady there, the wise-Lady, the
great Scholar, that Nobody can understand.
Dor. O ho, is it she? Pray let's withdraw, and oblige her, Madam; she's ready
to swoon at the insipid Sight of one of her own Sex.
Euph. You'll excuse us, Sir; we leave you to wiser Company.
[Exeunt Euph. and Dor.
Enter Hortensia.
Hort. The Deess, who from Atropos's Breast preserves the Names of Heroes
and their Actions, proclaims your Fame throughout this mighty Orb, and——
Esop. [Aside.] Shield me, my Stars! What have you sent me here? For Pity's
Sake, good Lady, be more humane: My Capacity is too heavy, to mount to
your Style: If you wou'd have me know what you mean, please to come down
to my Understanding.

Hort. I've something in my Nature soars too high

For vulgar Flight, I own;
But Esop's Sphere must needs be within Call;
Esop and I may sure converse together:
I know he's modest, but I likewise know
His Intellects are categorical.

Esop. Now, by my Faith, Lady, I don't know what Intellect is; and methinks,
categorical sounds as if you call'd me Names. Pray, speak that you may be
understood: Language was design'd for it; indeed it was.
 Hort. Of vulgar Things in vulgar Phrase we talk;
But when of Esop we must speak,
The Theme's too lofty for an humble Style:
Esop is sure no common Character.

Esop. No, truly; I am something particular. Yet if I am not mistaken, what I

have extraordinary about me, may be describ'd in very homely Language.
Here was a young Gentlewoman but just now pencil'd me out to a Hair, I
thought; and yet, I vow to God, the learned'st Word I heard her make use of,
was Monster.

Hort. That was a Woman, Sir, a very Woman;

Her Cogitations all were on the outward Man:
But I strike deeper; 'tis the Mind I view.
The Soul's the worthy Object of my Care;
The Soul, that Sample of Divinity, that glorious
Ray of heavenly Light. The Soul, that awful
Throne of Thought, that sacred Seat of Contemplation.
The Soul, that noble Source of Wisdom,
That Fountain of Comfort,
That Spring of Joy, that happy Token of eternal
Life. The Soul, that——

Esop. Pray, Lady, are you married?

Hort. Why that Question, Sir?
Esop. Only that I might wait upon your Husband, to wish him Joy.
Hort. When People of my Composition would marry, they first find something
of their own Species to join with; I never could resolve to take a Thing of
common Fabric to my Bed, lest, when his brutish Inclinations prompt him, he
shou'd make me Mother to a Form like his own.
Esop. Methinks, a Lady so extremely nice should be much at a Loss who to
converse with.
Hort. I keep my Chamber, and converse with myself; 'tis better being alone,
than to mis-ally one's Conversation: Men are scandalous, and Women are
insipid: Discourse without Figure makes me sick at my Soul: O the Charms of
a Metaphor! What Harmony there is in the Words of Erudition! The Musick of
them is inimaginable.
Esop. Will you hear a Fable, Lady?
Hort. Willingly, Sir; the Apologue pleases me, when the Application of it is
just.
Esop. It is, I'll answer for it.

Once on a Time a Nightingale,

To Changes prone,
Unconstant, fickle, whimsical,
(A Female one)
Who sung like others of her kind,
Hearing a well-taught Linnet's Airs,
Had other Matters in her Mind.
To imitate him she prepares;
Her Fancy strait was on the Wing:
I fly, quoth she,
As well as he;
I don't know why
I should not try
As well as he to sing.
From that Day forth she chang'd her Note,
She spoil'd her Voice, she strain'd her Throat:
She did, as learned Women do,
Till every Thing
That heard her sing
Wou'd run away from her——as I from you.

[Exit Esop running.

Hortensia sola.
How grossly does this poor World suffer itself to be impos'd upon!—--Esop, a
Man of Sense——Ha! ha! ha! ha! ha! Alas, poor Wretch! I shou'd not have
known him but by his Deformity; his Soul's as nauseous to my Understanding,
as his odious Body to my Sense of Feeling. Well,
'Mongst all the Wits that are allow'd to shine,
Methinks there's nothing yet approaches mine:
Sure I was sent the homely Age t'adorn; }
What Star, I know not, rul'd when I was born, }
But every Thing besides myself's my Scorn. }

[Exit.
 A C T II.
Enter Euphronia and Doris.
Dor.
W hat, in the Name of Jove, 's the matter with you? Speak, for Heaven's

sake!
Euph. Oh! what shall I do? Doris, I'm undone.
Dor. What, ravish'd?
Euph. No, ten times worse! Ten times worse! Unlace me, or I shall swoon.
Dor. Unlace you? Why, you are not thereabouts, I hope?
Euph. No no, worse still; worse than all that.
Dor. Nay, then 'tis bad, indeed.
[Doris unlaces her.
There: How d'ye do now?
Euph. So; 'tis going over.
Dor. Courage, pluck up your Spirits: Well, now what's the matter?
Euph. The matter! Thou shalt hear. Know that—that Cheat—Esop——
Dor. Like enough; speak: What has he done! That ugly ill-boding Cyclops—
Euph. Why, instead of keeping his Promise, and speaking for Oronces, he has
not said one Word, but what has been for himself. And by my Father's Order,
before to-morrow Noon he's to marry me.
Dor. He marry you!
Euph. Am I in the wrong to be in this Despair? Tell me, Doris, if I am to
blame.
Dor. To blame? No, by my troth. That ugly, old, treacherous piece of Vermin—
that melancholy Mixture of Impotence and Desire—does his Mouth stand to a
young Partridge? Ah the old Goat! And your Father! He downright doats at
last, then.
Euph. Ah, Doris, what a Husband does he give me! And what a Lover does he
rob me of! Thou know'st 'em both; think of Oronces, and think of Esop.
Dor. [Spitting.] A foul Monster! And yet, now I think on't, I'm almost as angry
at t'other too: Methinks he makes but a slow Voyage on't, for a Man in Love:
'Tis now above two Months since he went to Lesbos, to pack up the old Bones
of his dead Father; sure he might have made a little more Haste.
Enter Oronces.
Euph. Oh! my Heart, what do I see?
Dor. Talk of the Devil, and he's at your Elbow.
Oron. My dear Soul!
[Euph. runs and leaps about his Neck.
Euph. Why wou'd you stay so long from me?
Oron. 'Twas not my Fault, indeed; the Winds——
Dor. The Winds! Will the Winds blow you your Mistress again? We have had
Winds too, and Waves into the Bargain; Storms and Tempests, Sea-Monsters,
and the Devil and all. She struggled as long as she cou'd, but a Woman can
do no more than she can do; when her Breath was gone, down she sunk.
Oron. What's the meaning of all this?
Dor. There's meaning and mumping too: your Mistress is married: that's all.
Oron. Death and Furies——
Euph. [Clinging about him.] Don't you frighten him too much, neither, Doris.
No, my Dear, I'm not yet executed, tho' I'm condemn'd.
Oron. Condemn'd! To what? Speak! Quick!
Dor. To be married.
Oron. Married? When? How? Where? To what? To whom?
Dor. Esop, Esop, Esop, Esop, Esop.
Oron. Fiends and Spectres! What! That piece of Deformity! That Monster!
That Crump!
Dor. The same, Sir, the same. I find he knows him. You might have come
home sooner.
Oron. Dear Euphronia, ease me from my Pain. Swear that you neither have
nor will consent. I know this comes from your ambitious Father; But you're
too generous, too true to leave me: Millions of Kingdoms ne'er wou'd shake
my Faith, And I believe your Constancy as firm.
Euph. You do me Justice, you shall find you do: For Racks and Tortures,
Crowns and Scepters join'd, shall neither fright me from my Truth, nor tempt
me to be false. On this you may depend.
Dor. Wou'd to the Lord you wou'd find some other Place to make your fine
Speeches in! Don't you know that your dear Friend Esop's coming to receive
his Visits here? In this great downy Chair, your pretty little Husband Elect is to
sit and hear all the Complaints of the Town: One of Wisdom's chief
Recompences being to be constantly troubled with the Business of Fools. Pray,
Madam, will you take the Gentleman by the Hand, and lead him into your
Chamber; and when you are there, don't lie whining, and crying, and sighing,
and wishing——[Aside.] If he had not been more modest than wise, he might
have set such a Mark upon the Goods before now, that ne'er a Merchant of
'em all wou'd have bought 'em out of his Hands. But young Fellows are always
in the wrong: Either so impudent they are nauseous, or so modest they are
useless. Go; pray get you gone together.
Euph. But if my Father catch us, we are ruin'd.
Dor. By my Conscience, this Love will make us all turn Fools. Before your
Father can open the Door, can't he slip down the Back-stairs? I'm sure he
may, if you don't hold him; but that's the old Trade. Ah—Well, get you gone,
however——Hark——I hear the old Baboon cough; away! [Ex. Oron. and
Euph. running.] Here he comes, with his ugly Beak before him. Ah—a luscious
Bedfellow, by my troth!
Enter Learchus and Esop.
Lear. Well, Doris; what News from my Daughter? Is she prudent?
Dor. Yes, very prudent.
Lear. What says she? What does she do?
Dor. Do? What shou'd she do? Tears her Cornet; bites her Thumbs; throws
her Fan in the Fire; thinks 'tis dark Night at Noon-day; dreams of Monsters
and Hobgoblins; raves in her Sleep of forc'd Marriage and Cuckoldom; cries,
Avaunt Deformity; then wakens on a sudden, with fifty Arguments at her
Fingers-ends to prove the Lawfulness of Rebellion in a Child, when a Parent
turns Tyrant.
Lear. Very fine! But all this shan't serve her turn. I have said the Word, and
will be obey'd——My Lord does her Honour.
Dor. [Aside.] Yes, and that's all he can do to her. [To Lear.] But I can't blame
the Gentleman, after all; he loves my Mistress, because she's handsome; and
she hates him, because he's ugly. I never saw two People more in the right in
my Life. [To Esop.] You'll pardon me, Sir, I'm somewhat free.
Esop. Why, a Ceremony wou'd but take up time. But, Governor, methinks I
have an admirable Advocate about your Daughter.
Lear. Out of the Room, Impudence: be gone, I say.
Dor. So I will: But you'll be as much in the wrong when I'm gone, as when I'm
here. And your Conscience, I hope, will talk as pertly to you as I can do.
Esop. If she treats me thus before my face, I may conclude I'm finely handled
behind my Back.
Dor. I say the Truth here; and I can say no worse any where.
[Exit Doris.
Lear. I hope your Lordship won't be concern'd at what this prattling Wench
bleats out: my Daughter will be govern'd. She's bred up to Obedience. There
may be some small Difficulty in weaning her from her young Lover: But
'twon't be the first time she has been wean'd from a Breast, my Lord.
Esop. Does she love him fondly, Sir?
Lear. Foolishly, my Lord.
Esop. And he her?
Lear. The same.
Esop. Is he young?
Lear. Yes, and vigorous.
Esop. Rich?
Lear. So, so.
Esop. Well-born?
Lear. He has good Blood in his Veins.
Esop. Has he Wit?
Lear. He had, before he was in Love.
Esop. And handsome with all this?
Lear. Or else we shou'd not have half so much trouble with him.
Esop. Why do you, then, make her quit him for me? All the World knows I am
neither young, noble, nor rich: And as for my Beauty——Look you, Governor,
I'm honest. But when Children cry, they tell 'em Esop's a-coming. Pray, Sir,
what is it makes you so earnest to force your Daughter?
Lear. Am I, then, to count for nothing the favour you are in at Court? Father-
in-law to the great Esop! What may not I aspire to? My foolish Daughter,
perhaps, mayn't be so well pleas'd with it, but we wise Parents usually weigh
our Children's Happiness in the Scale of our own Inclinations.
Esop. Well, Governor, let it be your Care, then, to make her consent.
Lear. This Moment, my Lord, I reduce her either to Obedience, or to Dust and
Ashes.
[Exit Lear.
Esop. Adieu. Now let in the People who come for Audience.
[Esop sits in his Chair, reading of
Papers.
Enter two ordinary Tradesmen.
1 Tra. There he is, Neighbour: Do but look at him.
2 Tra. Aye; one may know him: He's well mark'd. But do'st hear me? What
Title must we give him? for if we fail in that point, d'ye see me, we shall never
get our Business done. Courtiers love Titles almost as well as they do Money,
and that's a bold Word now.
1 Tra. Why, I think we had best call him, his Grandeur.
2 Tra. That will do; thou hast hit on't. Hold still, let me speak. May it please
your Grandeur——
Esop. There I interrupt you, Friend; I have a weak Body that will ne'er be able
to bear that Title.
2 Tra. D'ye hear that, Neighbour? What shall we call him now?
1 Tra. Why, call him, call him, his Excellency; try what that will do.
2 Tra. May it please your Excellency——
Esop. Excellency's a long Word, it takes up too much time in Business: Tell me
what you'd have in few Words.
2 Tra.
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