Climate change projections

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 RCPs (IPCC V)

• Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) are a set of

scenarios developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC) to explore potential future greenhouse
gas concentrations and resulting climate change impacts.

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 Degree of climate change - RCPs

Representative Concentration Pathway Scenarios

Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios specify

concentrations and corresponding emissions, but are not directly based
on socio-economic storylines.

Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) Scenarios that include

time series of emissions and concentrations of the full suite of
greenhouse gases and aerosols and chemically active gases, as well as
land use/land cover.

The word representative signifies that each RCP provides only one of
many possible scenarios that would lead to the specific radiative forcing
characteristics.
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• RCP 2.6 - This scenario assumes strong mitigation efforts to limit
greenhouse gas emissions, with peak emissions reached by 2020 and
then declining. This scenario results in a global temperature increase of
less than 2°C above pre-industrial levels by 2100.
• RCP 4.5 - This scenario assumes moderate mitigation efforts, with
greenhouse gas emissions peaking around 2040 and then declining.
This scenario results in a global temperature increase of around 2.4°C
above pre-industrial levels by 2100.
• RCP 6.0 - This scenario assumes limited mitigation efforts, with
greenhouse gas emissions continuing to rise throughout the 21st
century. This scenario results in a global temperature increase of around
3°C above pre-industrial levels by 2100.
• RCP 8.5 - This scenario assumes no mitigation efforts, with greenhouse
gas emissions continuing to rise throughout the 21st century. This
scenario results in a global temperature increase of around 4.5°C above
pre-industrial levels by 2100.
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 Degree of Climate Change - RCPs

Four RCPs produced from Integrated Assessment Models were used in

AR5
RCP2.6 One pathway where radiative forcing peaks at approximately 3
Watts per square meter Wm–2 before 2100 and then declines
RCP4.5 An intermediate stabilization pathway in which radiative forcing
is stabilized at approximately 4.5 Wm–2 after 2100
RCP6.0 An intermediate stabilization pathway in which radiative forcing
is stabilized at approximately 6.0 Wm–2 after 2100
RCP8.5 A high pathway for which radiative forcing reaches greater than
8.5 Wm–2 by 2100

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 Degree of climate change - RCPs

From WGI AR5

Box 1.1

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 Degree of climate change - RCPs

From WGI AR5

Box 1.1

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 Degree of climate change - What is projected

Climate models predict increasing emissions will cause a

temp increase

Dr SN Mishra
Figure 1: Global 4/8/2024
temperature change and uncertainty. From Robustness and uncertainties in the new CMIP5 climate model projections 13
Reto Knutti & Jan Sedláček, Nature Climate Change 3, 369–373 (2013) doi:10.1038/nclimate1716,
 Degree of climate change - What is projected
Climate models predict increasing emissions will cause a temp
increase

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AR5 WGI 2013 Faq 12.1

 Degree of climate change - What is projected

IPCC AR5
WG I
Figure 12.11 | Multi-model ensemble average of surface air temperature.
Hatching indicates regions where the multi-model mean change is less
than Dr
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standard deviation of internal variability. Stippling indicates 15

regions where the mean change is greater than two standard deviations.
 Projections are for sea level rise

WGI AR5 2013 Figure 13.11 | Projections of (a) global mean sea level (GMSL) rise relative
to 1986–2005. The likely range is shown as a shaded band.
Only the collapse of the marine-based Antarctic ice sheet could cause GMSL to rise
substantially above the likely range during the 21st century. medium confidence that addition
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would not Mishra several tenths of a metre
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 Degree of climate change - What is projected
• Very likely that heat waves will be more intense, more
frequent and longer lasting
• Precipitation generally increases but with general decreases
in the subtropics
• Precipitation intensity is projected to increase but there
would be longer periods between rainfall events.
• Tendency for drying of mid-continent during summer,
indicating a greater risk of droughts in those regions.
• Sea level projected to rise 1999 and 2099 by 0.18 to 0.59 m.
• Likely increase in hurricane peak wind intensities - an
increase in the numbers of the most intense.
• Fewer mid-latitude storms- poleward shift of storm tracks
• Atlantic Ocean Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) –
Gulf
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 So What?

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 Climate Change can be disruptive

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Source : National Assessment

Burning Embers – Reasons for Concern

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 Climate Change can be disruptive

Source : IPCC

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Source : National Assessment 4/8/2024 21
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 What is Projected - sea level

http://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/potential_impact_of_sea_level_rise_on_bangladesh

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http://environment.newscientist.com/channel/earth/mg19526141.600-
huge-sea-level-rises-are-coming--unless-we-act-now.html
 What is Projected - sea level
Example 1 Sea Level and
hurricanes
Adapt
Structural protection
Abandonment

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http://yosemite.epa.gov/oar/globalwarming.nsf/content/ResourceCenterPublicationsSLRMapsIndex.html
http://www.glo.state.tx.us/coastal/erosion/reimbursement/pdf/Surfside_Beach_historic_shorelines.pdf
 Types of Effects - National Assessment
1. Increased warming
Assuming continued growth in world greenhouse gas emissions, the primary climate models used in this
Assessment project that temperatures in the US will rise 5-9ºF (3-5ºC) on average in the next 100 years. A
wider range of outcomes is possible.
2. Differing regional impacts
Climate change will vary widely across the US. Temperature increases will vary somewhat from one region to
the next. Heavy and extreme precipitation events are likely to become more frequent, yet some regions will get
drier. The potential impacts of climate change will also vary widely across the nation.
3. Vulnerable ecosystems
Many ecosystems are highly vulnerable to the projected rate and magnitude of climate change. A few, such as
alpine meadows in the Rocky Mountains and some barrier islands, are likely to disappear entirely in some
areas. Others, such as forests of the Southeast, are likely to experience major species shifts or break up into a
mosaic of grasslands, woodlands, and forests. The goods and services lost through the disappearance or
fragmentation of certain ecosystems are likely to be costly or impossible to replace.
4. Widespread water concerns
Water is an issue in every region, but the nature of the vulnerabilities varies. Drought is an important concern
in every region. Floods and water quality are concerns in many regions. Snowpack changes are especially
important in the West, Pacific Northwest, and Alaska.
5. Secure food supply
At the national level, the agriculture sector is likely to be able to adapt to climate change. Overall, US crop
productivity is very likely to increase over the next few decades, but the gains will not be uniform across the
nation. Falling prices and competitive pressures are very likely to stress some farmers, while benefiting
consumers.

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 Types of Effects - National Assessment
6. Near-term increase in forest growth
Forest productivity is likely to increase over the next several decades in some areas as trees respond to
higher carbon dioxide levels. Over the longer term, changes in larger-scale processes such as fire, insects,
droughts, and disease will possibly decrease forest productivity. In addition, climate change is likely to
cause long-term shifts in forest species, such as sugar maples moving north out of the US.
7. Increased damage in coastal and permafrost areas
Climate change and the resulting rise in sea level are likely to exacerbate threats to buildings, roads,
powerlines, and other infrastructure in climatically sensitive places. For example, infrastructure damage
is related to permafrost melting in Alaska, and to sea-level rise and storm surge in low-lying coastal
areas.
8. Adaptation determines health outcomes
A range of negative health impacts is possible from climate change, but adaptation is likely to help
protect much of the US population. Maintaining our nation's public health and community
infrastructure, from water treatment systems to emergency shelters, will be important for minimizing
the impacts of water-borne diseases, heat stress, air pollution, extreme weather events, and diseases
transmitted by insects, ticks, and rodents.
9. Other stresses magnified by climate change
Climate change will very likely magnify the cumulative impacts of other stresses, such as air and water
pollution and habitat destruction due to human development patterns. For some systems, such as coral
reefs, the combined effects of climate change and other stresses are very likely to exceed a critical
threshold, bringing large, possibly irreversible impacts.
10. Uncertainties remain and surprises are expected
Significant uncertainties remain in the science underlying regional climate changes and their impacts.
Further research would improve understanding and our ability to project societal and ecosystem
impacts, and provide the public with additional useful information about options for adaptation.
DrHowever,
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as
complex systems respond to ongoing climate change in unforeseeable ways
• These scenarios were developed to provide a framework for
exploring the potential impacts of climate change and to
inform decision-making and policy development at the global
and local levels.

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 IPCC AR 6 Report on Climate Change (Main Findings)

• Human-induced global warming of 1.1˚C has spurred changes to the Earth’s climate
that are unprecedented in recent human history
• Climate impacts on people and ecosystems are more widespread and severe than
expected, and future risks will escalate rapidly with every fraction of a degree of
warming.
• Adaptation measures can effectively build resilience, but more finance is needed to
scale solutions.
• Some climate impacts are already so severe they cannot be adapted to, leading to
losses and damages.
• GHG emissions peak before 2025 in 1.5˚ C-aligned pathways.
• The world must rapidly shift away from burning fossil fuels — the number one cause
of the climate crisis.
• We also need urgent, systemwide transformations to secure a net-zero, climate-
resilient future.
• Carbon removal is now essential to limit global temperature rise to 1.5˚ C.
• Climate finance for both mitigation and adaptation must increase dramatically this
decade.
• Climate change — as well as our collective efforts to adapt to and mitigate it — will
exacerbate inequity should we fail to ensure a just transition.
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 New Pathways (IPCC AR 6)

• Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) - These scenarios were

developed to explore how different socioeconomic trends, such as
population growth, economic development, and technological
progress, could affect greenhouse gas emissions and climate change
impacts.
• Shared Climate Policy Assumptions (SCPA) - These scenarios were
developed to explore how different policy interventions, such as
carbon taxes, renewable energy incentives, and technology subsidies,
could affect greenhouse gas emissions and climate change impacts.
• Mitigation Scenarios - These scenarios focus specifically on how
greenhouse gas emissions could be reduced through different
mitigation strategies, such as energy efficiency improvements,
renewable energy deployment, and carbon capture and storage.
• Regional Scenarios - These scenarios focus on the regional impacts
of climate change and how different adaptation and mitigation
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 Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)

• SSPs are climate change scenarios of projected socioeconomic global

changes up to 2100 as defined in the IPCC Sixth Assessment
Report on climate change in 2021.
• They are used to derive greenhouse gas emissions scenarios with
different climate policies.
• The SSPs provide narratives describing alternative socio-economic
developments.
• These storylines are a qualitative description of logic relating
elements of the narratives to each other. In terms of quantitative
elements, these provide data accompanying the scenarios on national
population, urbanization and GDP (per capita).
• The SSPs can be quantified with various Integrated Assesment
Models (IAMs) to explore possible future pathways both with regards
to socioeconomic and climate pathways.
• The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) and IPCC 6
based Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP 6) are
currently in vogue.

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 SSPs
• Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) are a set of scenarios developed
by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) based to
describe possible global socioeconomic developments over the course of
the 21st century. There are five SSPs:-

• SSP1: Sustainability - This scenario assumes a future world where

economic, social, and environmental systems are sustainable and where
there is a focus on achieving equitable human well-being. This pathway is
characterized by low population growth, high levels of education and
technological progress, and a move toward more sustainable resource
management.
• SSP2: Middle of the Road - This scenario assumes a future world where
there is a moderate level of economic, social, and environmental
development. This pathway is characterized by a continuation of current
trends in population growth, economic growth, and technology
development, with a moderate focus on sustainability and social welfare.

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• SSP3: Regional Rivalry - This scenario assumes a future world where
there is high inequality and a focus on national or regional interests,
resulting in a fragmented global society. This pathway is characterized
by high population growth, low levels of education and technological
progress, and a focus on national or regional development at the
expense of global cooperation and sustainability.
• SSP4: Inequality - This scenario assumes a future world where there is
high inequality and a focus on economic growth at the expense of
social welfare and environmental sustainability. This pathway is
characterized by high population growth, low levels of education and
technological progress, and increasing economic inequality and social
unrest.
• SSP5: Fossil-fuelled Development - This scenario assumes a future
world where there is a heavy reliance on fossil fuels and limited action
taken to mitigate climate change. This pathway is characterized by high
population growth, low levels of education and technological progress,
and a continued focus on economic growth at the expense of
environmental sustainability.

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Predicted CO2 Concentration Based on AR 6 for Different SSPs

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 Methane Emissions For Different SSPs

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 Special Report on Emissions
Scenarios (SRES_2000)

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 Thank you

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