bp-third-quarter-2023-results-presentation-slides-and-script
bp-third-quarter-2023-results-presentation-slides-and-script
financial results
Good morning, everyone and welcome to bp’s third quarter 2023 results
presentation.
I’m here today with Murray Auchincloss, chief executive officer and Kate
Thomson, chief financial officer.
Before we begin today, let me draw your attention to our cautionary statement.
2
Cautionary statement
In order to utilize the ‘safe harbor’ provisions of the United States Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 (the ‘PSLRA’) and the general doctrine of cautionary statements, bp is providing the following cautionary statement: The discussion in this
results announcement contains certain forecasts, projections and forward-looking statements - that is, statements related to future, not past events and circumstances - with respect to the financial condition, results of operations and businesses of bp and
certain of the plans and objectives of bp with respect to these items. These statements may generally, but not always, be identified by the use of words such as ‘will’, ‘expects’, ‘is expected to’, ‘aims’, ‘should’, ‘may’, ‘objective’, ‘is likely to’, ‘intends’,
‘believes’, ‘anticipates’, ‘plans’, ‘we see’, ‘focus on’ or similar expressions.
In particular, the following, among other statements, are all forward looking in nature: plans, expectations and assumptions regarding oil and gas demand, supply, prices, volatility, margins and inventory levels; plans and expectations regarding bp’s
performance, earnings, balance sheet and capital expenditure; plans and expectations related to earnings growth; plans relating to bp’s investments; plans and expectations relating to bp’s oil and gas portfolio, oil and gas production and volume growth;
plans and expectations regarding renewables and power; plans and expectations regarding bp’s five transition growth engines, including expectations regarding EV charging; plans and expectations regarding bp’s oil, gas and refining businesses; plans and
expectations regarding bp’s convenience business; expectations regarding bp’s future financial performance and cash flows, including expectations for bp’s 2025 targets and 2030 aims for adjusted EBITDA for the group, bp’s strategic focus areas, bp’s oil
and gas business and bp’s transition growth engines (including biogas on a standalone basis) respectively; plans and expectations regarding bp’s financial frame; plans and expectations regarding the allocation of surplus cash flow to share buybacks and
strengthening bp’s balance sheet; plans regarding future quarterly dividends, including the capacity for annual increases, and the amount and timing of share buybacks; plans and expectations regarding bp’s credit rating, including in respect of maintaining a
strong investment grade credit rating; expectations regarding bp’s development of hydrogen projects; plans and expectations regarding bp’s bioenergy business; plans and expectations regarding bp’s development of its LNG portfolio; plans and
expectations regarding capital expenditure; plans and expectations regarding the timing, quantum and nature of certain acquisitions and divestments; plans and expectations regarding bp-operated projects and ventures, and its projects, joint ventures,
partnerships and agreements with commercial entities and other third party partners.
By their nature, forward-looking statements involve risk and uncertainty because they relate to events and depend on circumstances that will or may occur in the future and are outside the control of bp.
Actual results or outcomes, may differ materially from those expressed in such statements, depending on a variety of factors, including: the extent and duration of the impact of current market conditions including the volatility of oil prices, the effects of
bp’s plan to exit its shareholding in Rosneft and other investments in Russia, the impact of COVID-19, overall global economic and business conditions impacting bp’s business and demand for bp’s products as well as the specific factors identified in the
discussions accompanying such forward-looking statements; changes in consumer preferences and societal expectations; the pace of development and adoption of alternative energy solutions; developments in policy, law, regulation, technology and
markets, including societal and investor sentiment related to the issue of climate change; the receipt of relevant third party and/or regulatory approvals; the timing and level of maintenance and/or turnaround activity; the timing and volume of refinery
additions and outages; the timing of bringing new fields onstream; the timing, quantum and nature of certain acquisitions and divestments; future levels of industry product supply, demand and pricing, including supply growth in North America and
continued base oil and additive supply shortages; OPEC+ quota restrictions; PSA and TSC effects; operational and safety problems; potential lapses in product quality; economic and financial market conditions generally or in various countries and regions;
political stability and economic growth in relevant areas of the world; changes in laws and governmental regulations and policies, including related to climate change; changes in social attitudes and customer preferences; regulatory or legal actions including
the types of enforcement action pursued and the nature of remedies sought or imposed; the actions of prosecutors, regulatory authorities and courts; delays in the processes for resolving claims; amounts ultimately payable and timing of payments relating
to the Gulf of Mexico oil spill; exchange rate fluctuations; development and use of new technology; recruitment and retention of a skilled workforce; the success or otherwise of partnering; the actions of competitors, trading partners, contractors,
subcontractors, creditors, rating agencies and others; bp’s access to future credit resources; business disruption and crisis management; the impact on bp’s reputation of ethical misconduct and non-compliance with regulatory obligations; trading losses;
major uninsured losses; the possibility that international sanctions or other steps taken by any competent authorities or any other relevant persons may impact or limit bp’s ability to sell its interests in Rosneft, or the price for which it could sell such
interests; the actions of contractors; natural disasters and adverse weather conditions; changes in public expectations and other changes to business conditions; wars and acts of terrorism; cyber-attacks or sabotage; and those factors discussed under
“Principal risks and uncertainties” in bp’s Report on Form 6-K regarding results for the six-month period ended 30 June 2023 as filed with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) as well as those factors discussed under “Risk factors” in
bp’s Annual Report and Form 20-F 2022 as filed with the SEC.
Reconciliations to GAAP - This presentation also contains financial information which is not presented in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP). A quantitative reconciliation of this information to the most directly comparable
financial measure calculated and presented in accordance with GAAP can be found on our website at www.bp.com.
This presentation contains references to non-proved resources and production outlooks based on non-proved resources that the SEC's rules prohibit us from including in our filings with the SEC. U.S. investors are urged to consider closely the disclosures in
our Form 20-F, SEC File No. 1-06262.
Tables and projections in this presentation are bp projections unless otherwise stated.
* For items marked with an asterisk throughout this document, definitions are provided in the glossary
3
Murray Auchincloss
Chief executive officer
4
bp – performing while transforming
Thanks Craig.
We hosted our investor update in Denver a few weeks ago – focused on our oil,
gas and biogas businesses, including a site visit to bpx’s Permian operation. We
had three core messages that I want to re-emphasise today:
5
Growing the value of bp
Investing in today’s oil and gas system
2025 EBITDA2 2030 EBITDA2
Oil and gas EBITDA*
– unchanged – revised up
2026 – 2030
distinctive resources
– significant future project
Capacity $46 - 49bn $53 - 58bn
optionality & flexibility – Group Group
optimising investment to sustain
2030+
And
(1)
Investing in transition growth* engines including
scaling-up biogas to ~$2bn EBITDA by 2030
Growing to 2025 compared with 2021 (2) Brent $70/bbl 2021 real, at bp planning assumptions, and at the upper end of the relevant capex * ranges 3QCapital
October 2023 2023 financial
Marketsresults
day 6
Earlier this month, we said we expect 2030 adjusted EBITDA aims from resilient
hydrocarbons and group will be around $2 billion higher than bp’s previous
targets to a range of $41-44 billion and $53-58 billion respectively.
This slide summarises the key messages from the event – and if you haven’t
seen the materials, we encourage you take a look on bp.com.
6
Performing while transforming
For the third quarter we delivered strong operational performance, with upstream
plant reliability and refining availability at around 96% year to date. This came on
top of 3% volume growth year-to-date and 6% decline in unit production costs.
Underlying earnings were $3.3 billion and we delivered robust operating cash
flow of $8.7 billion, including a working capital release of $2.0 billion.
7
Renewables pipeline
Bioenergy
Convenience
43.9 GW
+8 %
vs 37.2GW in 4Q22
Scaling-up Archaea
LNG supply Energy – first plant Awarded 4GW
Growth in LNG supply online using Archaea YTD growth in rights to develop
from third party offtake Modular Design in convenience two offshore wind
contracts – Woodfibre Medora, Indiana gross margin*1 projects in Germany
Continued
in 2023
Major project* bpx EV charging Hydrogen pipeline*
(1) At constant forex and excluding TA and other portfolio effects 3Q 2023 financial results 8
- We received regulatory approval for Murlach – a two well oil and gas
redevelopment of the Marnock-Skua field in the North Sea.
- In LNG:
8
- In EV charging:
- In convenience:
- In hydrogen:
Now, let me hand over to Kate, to take you through our third quarter
results in more detail.
8
Kate Thomson
Chief financial officer
9
Underlying results
$bn 3Q22 2Q23 3Q23 3Q 2023 vs 2Q 2023
Brent ($/bbl) 100.8 78.1 86.8
Henry Hub ($/mmbtu) 8.2 2.1 2.5 ▪ Higher realised refining margins
and lower level of refining
NBP (p/therm) 281.0 83.2 82.0
turnaround activity
RMM ($/bbl) 35.5 24.7 31.8
*
Underlying RCPBIT 13.8 5.6 6.1
▪ Very strong oil trading result
Gas & low carbon energy 6.2 2.2 1.3
Oil production & operations 5.2 2.8 3.1
▪ Higher oil and gas production
Customers & products 2.7 0.8 2.1
Other businesses and corporate (0.4) (0.2) (0.3) ▪ Weak gas marketing and
Consolidation adjustment - UPII *
(0.0) (0.0) (0.1) trading result
Underlying replacement cost profit* 8.2 2.6 3.3
Announced dividend per ordinary share
6.006 7.270 7.270
(cents per share)
Thanks Murray and good morning, everyone. It was great to meet a number of
you in Denver recently.
For the third quarter, we reported an underlying replacement cost profit of $3.3
billion compared to $2.6 billion last quarter.
- In gas and low carbon energy the result reflects a weak gas marketing and
trading result, following the exceptional performance in the first half of
2023.
- In oil production and operations, the result reflects higher oil and gas
realisations, despite the impact of price-lags on Gulf of Mexico and UAE
realisations, and higher production.
- And in customers and products, the products result reflects a higher realised
refining margin, a lower level of turnaround activity, and a very strong oil
trading result. In our customers business we continue to show strong
momentum in convenience and aviation, benefitting from seasonally higher
fuel volumes partially offset by lower margins given the rising cost of
supply.
10
Cash flow and balance sheet
9M23 surplus cash flow* $bn
28
Commitment to
60% 2023 surplus cash flow
to buybacks3
(1) Adjusted for inventory holding gains or losses*, fair value accounting effects* and other adjusting items
(2) Includes share buybacks to offset the expected full-year dilution from the vesting of awards under employee share schemes in 2023. 2Q23 $225m; 3Q23
$225m. bp completed the $675m buyback programme on 1 September 2023
(3) Subject to maintaining a strong investment grade credit rating 3Q 2023 financial results 11
Operating cash flow was $8.7 billion in the third quarter. This includes a working
capital release of $2.0 billion after adjusting for inventory holding gains and fair
value accounting effects and other adjusting items.
During the quarter, we repurchased $2.0 billion of shares. The $1.5 billion
programme announced with second quarter 2023 results was completed on 27
October.
Surplus cash flow was $3.1 billion and net debt reduced by $1.3 billion to $22.3
billion.
11
2023 financial frame
Resilient Strong investment Disciplined Share
dividend grade credit rating investment allocation buybacks
Resilient $40/bbl Target further progress 2024-2030: $14-18bn Commitment to allocate 60%
cash balance point*3 within an ‘A’ grade 2023 surplus cash flow1 to
credit rating share buybacks
Capacity for annual increase of Intend to allocate 40% Transition growth* Oil & gas, refining Expect ~$4.0bn p.a. at
the dividend per ordinary share 2023 surplus cash flow to engines and other ~$60/bbl at the lower-end of
of ~4% at ~$60/bbl further strengthen balance businesses the $14-18bn capital
sheet investment range
#1 #2 #3 #4 #5
(1) Subject to maintaining a strong investment grade credit rating
(2) In addition, bp completed the $675m buyback programme during 3Q23 to offset expected dilution from vesting of awards under employee schemes
(3) Cash balance point $40/bbl Brent, $11/bbl RMM*, $3/mmbtu Henry Hub, all 2021 real 3Q 2023 financial results 12
Our disciplined financial frame remains unchanged, with a focus on five key
priorities.
- We are investing with discipline in our transition growth engines and in our
oil, gas and refining businesses. Our capital expenditure guidance for 2023,
including inorganics, is now expected to be around $16 billion.
12
Murray Auchincloss
Chief executive officer
13
3Q 2023 financial results 14
Thanks Kate.
- We are growing the value of bp – investing in today’s oil and gas system and
investing in our transition growth engines.
- And in doing so, quarter-on-quarter, to meet our 2025 targets and 2030 aims.
14
Appendix
Capital expenditure* ~$16bn1 bp expects fourth quarter 2023 reported upstream production to be broadly flat
compared to third quarter 2023.
DD&A Slightly above 2022
In its customers business, bp expects seasonally lower volumes with marketing
Divestment and other margins to remain sensitive to movements in the cost of supply. In refining, we
$2-3bn
proceeds
expect significantly lower realised refining margins and a higher level of
Gulf of Mexico oil spill turnaround activity in the fourth quarter.
~$1.3bn pre-tax
payments
OB&C underlying annual Lower end of $1.1-1.3bn full year, quarterly charges
charge may vary
Reported and underlying* For 2023 bp expects both reported and underlying
upstream production upstream production to be higher compared with
2022. Within this, bp expects underlying production
from oil production and operations to be higher and
production from gas and low carbon energy to be
slightly lower. bp continues to expect four major
project* start-ups during 2023.
Resilient
9.1 13.01 9-11 8-10
Resilient
30.63 56.93 40-42 41-44
hydrocarbons hydrocarbons 39-425
Convenience Convenience
1.6 1.8 2-3 3-4 4.4 4.3 ~7 9-11
and mobility and mobility
Group capital
12.8 16.3 14-18 14-18 Group EBITDA4 34.4 60.7 46-49 53-58
expenditure4 51-565
(1) Includes acquisition of Archaea Energy (2) Brent $70/bbl 2021 real, at bp planning assumptions, and at the upper end of the relevant capex ranges
(3) 2021 and 2022 not restated for re-allocation of power trading to low carbon energy (4) Includes OB&C (5) Previous aim included with 2022 full year and 4Q financial results & update on strategic progress 3Q 2023 financial results 20
Gas and low carbon energy
3Q22 2Q23 3Q23 Underlying RCPBIT* $bn
Production volume 7.0
6.2
Liquids (mbd) 117 103 106 6.0
Natural gas (mmcfd) 5,011 4,641 4,875 5.0
Total hydrocarbons (mboed) 981 903 946
4.0 3.5
3.1
Average realisations*
3.0
2.2
Liquids ($/bbl) 88.03 73.57 76.69
2.0
1.3
Natural gas ($/mcf) 9.85 5.53 5.38
1.0
Total hydrocarbons ($/boe) 60.80 36.96 36.82
0.0
Selected financial metrics ($bn) 3Q22 4Q22 1Q23 2Q23 3Q23
Adjusted EBITDA* 7.4 3.6 2.8
Operational metrics (GW, bp net) Weak gas marketing and trading result
Installed renewables capacity* 2.0 2.4 2.5 Partly offset by higher production
bcm Billion cubic meters. mmcfd Million cubic feet per day.
CCS Carbon, capture and storage. mtpa Million tonnes per annum.
MachH2 Midwest Alliance for Clean Hydrogen. UAE United Arab Emirates.
Cash balance Implied Brent oil price 2021 real to balance bp’s sources and uses of cash Disposal Divestments and other proceeds.
point assuming an average bp refining marker margin around $11/bbl and Henry proceeds
Hub at $3/mmbtu in 2021 real terms.
EBITDA / Replacement cost (RC) profit before interest and tax, excluding net adjusting
Consolidation Unrealised profit in inventory arising on inter-segment transactions. adjusted EBITDA items* before interest and tax, and adding back depreciation, depletion and
adjustment – UPII amortisation and exploration write-offs (net of adjusting items).
Databook
Find out more on bp.com/investors
Major projects
You can contact the investor relations
team at [email protected]
Environment, social and governance
Debt investor