Topic Three: Causes and Consequences of Climate Change

3.1. Major causes of climate change

3.1.1. Human-Driven Causes of Climate Change

Scientists agree that human activity is the primary driver of what we‘re seeing now worldwide.
(This type of climate change is sometimes referred to as anthropogenic, which is just a way of
saying ―caused by human beings.‖) The unchecked burning of fossil fuels over the past 150
years has drastically increased the presence of atmospheric greenhouse gases, most
notably carbon dioxide. At the same time, logging and development have led to the widespread
destruction of forests, wetlands, and other carbon sinks—natural resources that store carbon
dioxide and prevent it from being released into the atmosphere.

Right now, atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide, methane, and
nitrous oxide are the highest they‘ve been in the last 800,000 years. Some greenhouse gases,
like hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HFCs), do not even exist in nature. By continuously pumping
these gases into the air, we helped raise the earth‘s average temperature by about 1.9 degrees
Fahrenheit during the 20th century—which has brought us to our current era of deadly, and
increasingly routine, weather extremes. And it‘s important to note that while climate change
affects everyone in some way, it doesn‘t do so equally: All over the world, people of color and
those living in economically disadvantaged or politically marginalized communities bear a
much larger burden, despite the fact that these communities play a much smaller role in
warming the planet.

Our ways of generating power for electricity, heat, and transportation, our built environment
and industries, our ways of interacting with the land, and our consumption habits together serve
as the primary drivers of climate change. While the percentages of greenhouse gases stemming
from each source may fluctuate, the sources themselves remain relatively consistent.

 Humans cause climate change by releasing carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases
into the air. Today, there is more carbon dioxide in the atmosphere than there ever has
been in at least the past 2 million years. During the 20th and 21st century, the level of
carbon dioxide rose by 40%

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We produce greenhouse gases in lots of different ways:

 Burning fossil fuels – Fossil fuels such as oil, gas, and coal contain carbon dioxide that
has been 'locked away' in the ground for thousands of years. When we take these out of
the land and burn them, we release the stored carbon dioxide into the air.
 Transportation

The cars, trucks, ships, and planes that we use to transport ourselves and our goods are a
major source of global greenhouse gas emissions. (In the United States, they actually
constitute the single-largest source.) Burning petroleum-based fuel in combustion
engines releases massive amounts of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere.

 Electricity- The electricity used in the world comes from the burning of coal, natural gas,
and other fossil fuels

 Industry & Manufacturing

Most industrial emissions come from the production of a small set of carbon-
intensive products, including basic chemicals, iron and steel, cement and concrete,
aluminum, glass, and paper. To manufacture the building blocks of our infrastructure
and the vast array of products demanded by consumers, producers must burn through
massive amounts of energy. In addition, older facilities in need of efficiency
upgrades frequently leak these gases, along with other harmful forms of air
pollution.

 Deforestation – Another way we‘re injecting more greenhouse gas into the
atmosphere is through the clear cutting of the world‘s forests and the degradation of its
wetlands. Vegetation and soil store carbon by keeping it at ground level or
underground. Through logging and other forms of development, we‘re cutting down or
digging up vegetative biomass and releasing all of its stored carbon into the air.
In Canada‘s boreal forest alone, clear cutting is responsible for releasing more than 25
million metric tons of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere each year—the emissions
equivalent of 5.5 million vehicles. Forests remove and store carbon dioxide from the

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 atmosphere. Cutting them down means that carbon dioxide builds up quicker since
there are no trees to absorb it. Not only that, trees release the carbon they stored when
we burn them.
 Agriculture – The advent of modern, industrialized agriculture has significantly
altered the vital but delicate relationship between soil and the climate—so much so
that agriculture accounted for around ----- percent of. Green-house gas emissions. This
sector is especially notorious for giving off large amounts of nitrous oxide and
methane, powerful gases that are highly effective at trapping heat. The widespread
adoption of chemical fertilizers, combined with certain crop-management practices
that prioritize high yields over soil health, means that agriculture accounts for nearly
three-quarters of the nitrous oxide found in our atmosphere.
 Meanwhile, large-scale industrialized livestock production continues to be a
significant source of atmospheric methane, which is emitted as a function of the
digestive processes of cattle and other ruminants.
 methane is 30 times more powerful than carbon dioxide as a greenhouse gas. The
nitrous oxide used for fertilizers is ten times worse and is nearly 300 times more
potent than carbon dioxide!
 Cement – Producing cement is another contributor to climate change, causing 2% of
our entire carbon dioxide emissions.
 Oil & Gas Development- Oil and gas lead to emissions at every stage of their
production and consumption—not only when they‘re burned as fuel, but just as soon
as we drill a hole in the ground to begin extracting them. Fossil fuel development is a
major source of methane, which invariably leaks from oil and gas operations:
drilling, fracking, transporting, and refining. And while methane isn‘t as prevalent a
greenhouse gas as carbon dioxide, it‘s many times more potent at trapping heat during
the first 20 years of its release into the atmosphere. Even abandoned and inoperative
wells—sometimes known as ―orphaned‖ wells—leak methane.
 Buildings-Unsurprisingly, given how much time we spend inside of them, our
buildings—both residential and commercial—emit a lot of greenhouse gases. Heating,
cooling, cooking, running appliances, and maintaining other building-wide systems

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  Our Lifestyle Choices -The decisions we make every day as individuals—which
products we purchase, how much electricity we consume, how we get around, what we
eat (and what we don‘t—food waste makes up 4 percent of total U.S. greenhouse gas
emissions)—add up to our single, unique carbon footprints. Put all of them together
and you end up with humanity‘s collective carbon footprint. The first step in reducing
it is for us to acknowledge the uneven distribution of climate change‘s causes and
effects, and for those who bear the greatest responsibility for global greenhouse gas
emissions to slash them without bringing further harm to those who are least
responsible.
3.1.2. Natural causes
 Natural cycles can cause the climate to alternate between warming and cooling. There
are also natural factors that force the climate to change, known as 'forcing'. Even
though these natural causes contribute to climate change, we know that they are not the
primary cause, based on scientific evidence.
 Natural climate cycles can change the temperature of Earth, but the changes we are
seeing are happening at a scale and speed that natural cycles cannot explain. These
cycles affect the global temperature for years, or sometimes just months, not the 100
years that we have observed. Meanwhile, longer-term changes like Milankovitch cycles
and solar irradiance take thousands and thousands of years. ( Refer 1.4. natural Causes
of climate change in this hand out.)
3.2. Major consequences of climate change
3.2.1. Natural consequences.
What are the consequences of climate change for the natural world

High temperatures

The climate crisis has increased the average global temperature and is leading to more frequent
high-temperature extremes, such as heat waves. Higher temperatures can cause increased
mortality, reduced productivity and damage to infrastructure. The most vulnerable members of
the population, such as the elderly and infants, will be most severely affected.

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Higher temperatures are also expected to cause a shift in the geographical distribution of climate
zones. These changes are altering the distribution and abundance of many plant and animal
species, which are already under pressure from habitat loss and pollution.

Temperature rises are also likely to influence phenology – the behaviour and lifecycles of animal
and plant species. This could in turn lead to increased numbers of pests and invasive species, and
a higher incidence of certain human diseases.

Meanwhile, the yields and viability of agriculture and livestock, or the capacity of ecosystems to
provide important services and goods (such as the supply of clean water or cool and clean air)
could be diminished.

Higher temperatures increase the evaporation of water, which – together with the lack of
precipitation – increases the risks of severe droughts.

Low-temperature extremes (cold spells, frosty days) could become less frequent in Europe.
However, global warming affects the predictability of events and therefore our capacity to
respond effectively.
Due to the changing climate, many European regions are already facing more frequent, severe,
and longer lasting droughts. A drought is an unusual and temporary deficit in water availability
caused by the combination of lack of precipitation and more evaporation (due to high
temperatures). It differs from water scarcity, which is the structural year-round lack of fresh
water resulting from the over-consumption of water.

Droughts and wild fire

Droughts often have knock-on effects, for example on transport infrastructure, agriculture,
forestry, water and biodiversity. They reduce water levels in rivers and ground water, stunt tree
and crop growth, increase pest attacks and fuel wildfires.

In Europe, most of the roughly EUR 9 billion annual losses caused by drought affect agriculture,
the energy sector and the public water supply. Extreme droughts are becoming more common in
Europe, and the damage they cause is also growing.

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With a global average temperature increase of 3°C, it is projected that droughts would happen
twice as often and absolute annual losses from droughts in Europe would increase to EUR 40
billion per year, with the most severe impacts in the Mediterranean and Atlantic regions EN••• .

More frequent and severe droughts will increase the length and severity of the wildfire season,
particularly in the Mediterranean region. Climate change is also expanding the area at risk from
wildfires. Regions that are not currently prone to fires could become risk areas.
Availability of fresh water
As the climate heats up, rainfall patterns change, evaporation increases, glaciers melt and sea
levels rise. All these factors affect the availability of fresh water.

More frequent and severe droughts and rising water temperatures are expected to cause a
decrease in water quality. Such conditions encourage the growth of toxic algae and bacteria,
which will worsen the problem of water scarcity that has been largely caused by human activity.

The increase of cloudburst events (sudden extreme rainfall) is also likely to influence the quality
and quantity of fresh water available, as storm water can cause uncleaned sewage to enter surface
water.

Europe‘s rivers generally originate in mountainous areas, and 40% of Europe‘s fresh water
comes from the Alps. However, changes in snow and glacier dynamics, and patterns of rainfall
may lead to temporary water shortages across Europe. Changes to river flows due to drought
may also affect inland shipping and the production of hydroelectric power.

Floods

Climate change is expected to lead an increase of precipitation in many areas. Increased rainfall
over extended periods will mainly lead to fluvial (river) flooding, while short, intense
cloudbursts can cause pluvial floods, where extreme rainfall causes flooding without any body of
water overflowing.

River flooding is a common natural disaster in Europe, which has, along with storms, resulted in
fatalities, affected millions of people and incurred massive economic losses in the last three

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decades. Climate change is likely to increase the frequency of flooding across Europe in the
coming years.

Heavy rainstorms are projected to become more common and more intense due to higher
temperatures, with flash floods expected to become more frequent across Europe.

In some regions, certain risks such as early spring floods could decrease in the short term with
less winter snowfall, but the increased risk of flash flooding in mountain areas overloading the
river system may offset those effects in the medium term.

Sea level rise and coastal areas

The sea level rose over the course of the 20th century, and the tendency has accelerated in recent
decades.

The rise is mostly due to thermal expansion of the oceans because of warming. But melting ice
from glaciers and the Antarctic ice sheet is also contributing. It is predicted that Europe will
experience an average 60 to 80 cm sea-level rise by the end of the century, mainly depending on
the rate at which the Antarctic ice sheet melts.

Around a third of the EU‘s population lives within 50 km of the coast and these areas generate
over 30% of the Union‘s total GDP. The economic value of assets within 500 m of Europe‘s seas
totals between EUR 500 billion to 1,000 billion.

Alongside other climate change impacts, sea-level rise will increase the risk of flooding and
erosion around the coasts, with significant consequences for the people, infrastructure,
businesses and nature in these areas.

Moreover, sea level rise is projected to reduce the amount of available fresh water, as seawater
pushes further into underground water tables. This is also likely to lead to much more saltwater
intrusion into bodies of fresh water, affecting agriculture and the supply of drinking water.

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It will also affect biodiversity in coastal habitats, and the natural services and goods they
provide. Many wetlands will be lost, threatening unique bird and plant species, and removing the
natural protection these areas provide against storm surges.
Biodiversity

Climate change is happening so fast that many plants and animal species are struggling to cope.
There is clear evidence to show that biodiversity is already responding to climate change and
will continue to do so. Direct impacts include changes in phenology (the behaviour and
lifecycles of animal and plant species), species abundance and distribution, community
composition, habitat structure and ecosystem processes.

Climate change is also leading to indirect impacts on biodiversity through changes in the use of
land and other resources. These may be more damaging than the direct impacts due to their scale,
scope and speed. The indirect impacts include: habitat fragmentation and loss; over-exploitation;
pollution of air, water and soil; and the spread of invasive species. They will further reduce the
resilience of ecosystems to climate change and their capacity to deliver essential services; such
as climate regulation, food, clean air and water, and the control of floods or erosion.
Soils
Climate change may aggravate erosion, decline in organic matter, salinisation, soil biodiversity
loss, landslides, desertification and flooding. The effect of climate change on soil carbon storage
can be related to changing atmospheric CO2 concentrations, increased temperatures and
changing precipitation patterns. Extreme precipitation events, fast melting of snow or ice, high
river discharges and increased droughts are all climate-related events which influence soil
degradation. Deforestation and other human activities (agriculture, skiing) also play a role.
Saline soils are expected to increase in coastal areas as a result of saltwater intrusion from the
seaside because of rising sea levels and (periodically) low river discharges.
Inland water

Climate change is predicted to lead to major changes in water availability across Europe, due to
less predictable rainfall patterns and more intense storms. This will result in increased water
scarcity, especially in southern and south-eastern Europe, and an increased risk of flooding

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 throughout much of the continent. The resulting changes will affect many land and marine
regions, and many different natural environments and species.

Water temperature is one of the central parameters that determine the overall health of aquatic
ecosystems because aquatic organisms have a specific range of temperatures they can tolerate.
The changes in climate have increased water temperatures of rivers and lakes, decreased ice
cover, thereby affecting water quality and freshwater ecosystems.
Marine environment
The impacts of climate change, such as increasing sea surface temperatures, ocean acidification
and shifts in currents and wind patterns will significantly alter the physical and biological make-
up of the oceans. Changes in temperatures and ocean circulation have the potential to change
geographical fish distribution. An increasing sea temperature might also enable alien species to
expand into regions where they previously could not survive. Ocean acidification for example
will have an impact on various calcium carbonate-secreting organisms. These changes will have
unavoidable impacts on coastal and marine ecosystems, resulting in major socio-economic
consequences for many regions
3.2.2. Social threats
Health

Climate change is a significant threat not only to human health but also to animal and plant
health. While a changing climate might not create many new or unknown health threats, existing
effects will be exacerbated and more pronounced than currently seen.

The most important health effects from future climate change are projected to include:

1. Increases in summer heat-related mortality (deaths) and morbidity (illness);

2. Decreases in winter cold-related mortality (deaths) and morbidity (illness);
3. Increases in the risk of accidents and impacts on wider well-being from extreme weather events
(floods, fires and storms);
4. Changes in the impact of diseases e.g. from vector-, rodent-, water- or food-borne disease;
5. Changes in the seasonal distribution of some allergenic pollen species, range of virus, pest and
disease distribution;

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6. Emerging and re-emerging animal diseases increasing challenges to European animal and human
health by viral zoonotic diseases and vector-borne diseases;
7. Emerging and re-emerging plant pests (insect, pathogens and other pests) and diseases affecting
forest and crop systems;
8. Risks in relation to change in air quality and ozone.

Vulnerable people
People living in low-income urban areas with poor infrastructure, and, generally speaking,
population groups with lower incomes and assets, are more exposed to climate impacts but have
less capacity to face them.

Women may be disproportionately impacted by climate change and are at a disadvantage when
expensive adaptation measures are required. At the same time, women are key actors in
adaptation and more generally sustainable practices.

Unemployed and socially marginalized people are among the most vulnerable to climate risks.

Europe's ageing population, disproportionately affected by reduced mobility or health

impediments, will result in a higher share of the population being vulnerable to climate change
impacts.

Climate change has also already started to have an impact on displacement and migration.
Although climate is only of several drivers of displacement and migration, many partner
countries on their path towards sustainable development are among the most affected. People
living there often depend heavily on their natural environment, and they have the least resources
to cope with the changing climate
Employment
The impact of temperature increases, changes in precipitation regimes or sea-level rise will affect
– directly or indirectly – the productivity and viability of all economic sectors in all EU Member
States, with labour market implications.

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Climate change may affect workforce availability due to a decrease in the health conditions of
the population and additional occupational health constraints (higher temperature at work, more
frequent and intense natural hazards keeping people from reaching their workplace).

Moreover, several economic sectors are highly vulnerable because of their dependence on
regular climate conditions. Sectoral production shifts – in agriculture and tourism for instance –
are expected as a consequence of climate change.

Major investments in adaptation could offer employment and income opportunities in activities
such as reinforcing coastal defences, buildings and (green) infrastructure, water management and
relocation of exposed settlements. Yet, uncertainty remains regarding the possible net job
creation effects of such investments. Labour skills upgrading will be necessary to grasp these
opportunities.
Education
Reducing vulnerability and implementing adaptation measures is not only the task and
responsibility of governments. The severity of climate change requires public and private actors
to work together in reducing vulnerability and adapting to the impacts. However, not all
stakeholders are aware and informed about their vulnerability and the measures they can take to
pro-actively adapt to climate change. Education and awareness-raising is therefore an important
component of the adaptation process to manage the impacts of climate change, enhance adaptive
capacity, and reduce overall vulnerability.

3.2.3. Threats to business

Infrastructure and buildings

The impacts of climate change are particularly pertinent to infrastructure and buildings given
their long lifespan and their high initial cost, as well as their essential role in the functioning of
our societies and economies.

Buildings and infrastructure can be vulnerable to climate change because of their design (low
resistance to storms) or location (e.g. in flood-prone areas, landslides, avalanches). Indeed they
can be damaged or rendered unfit for use by any changing climatic condition or extreme weather

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event: rising sea level, extreme precipitation and floods, occurrences of extreme low or high
temperatures, heavy snowfalls, strong winds…

Consequences of climate change for buildings and infrastructure will differ from region to
region.

Energy

Climate threats for the European energy system already exist and are projected to increase.
Climate change is expected to reduce demand for heating in northern and north-western Europe
and to strongly increase energy demand for cooling in southern Europe, which may further
exacerbate peaks in electricity demand in the summer.

More intense and frequent heat waves will shift energy supply and demand patterns, often in
opposite directions. Further increases in temperature and droughts may limit the availability of
cooling water for thermal power generation in summer (lowering energy supply), whereas
demand for air conditioning will increase.

Moreover, greater magnitude and frequency of extreme weather events will cause threats for
physical energy infrastructure: overhead transmission and distribution, but also substations or
transformers.

Climate change also brings increased uncertainty in weather patterns across Europe. This has a
direct negative impact in the long term on the production of renewable energy. Some immediate
examples would be less sun or wind in areas where there is usually more or heat and droughts
affecting the crops intended for the production of energy from biomass.

Agriculture and forestry

Climate change and climate variability are projected to have a substantial effect on agricultural
production, both regarding crop yields and the locations where different crops can be grown. The
crop season has lengthened and is projected to increase further due to an earlier onset of growth
in spring, and a longer growing season in autumn. This would allow a northward expansion of
warm-season crops to areas that were not previously suitable.

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Due to a combination of heat and drought, substantive agricultural production losses are
projected for most European areas over the 21st century, which will not be offset by gains in
Northern Europe. While irrigation is an effective adaptation option for agriculture, the ability to
adapt using irrigation will be increasingly limited by water availability.

Southern regions will be hit hardest, with an overall negative impact on agriculture. High
temperatures, water shortage and extreme weather events may cause lower yields, higher yield
variability and, in the long term, a reduction in suitable areas for cultivation. The impacts will
depend on precipitation patterns and the crops considered.

Northern parts of Europe could expect some positive effects on agriculture through the
introduction of new crop varieties, higher yields and expansion of suitable areas for crop
cultivation. These are due to longer crop seasons, more frost-free periods and fewer cold spells.
Negative impacts are also expected, however, mainly through increased pests and diseases,
nutrient leaching and reduced soil organic matter.

Effects on forestry due to climate change include increased risk of droughts, storms and fires
(abiotic) and pests and diseases (biotic) – all leading to disturbances to forest health.

The impact of fire events is particularly strong on already degraded ecosystems in southern
Europe, and is projected to worsen in the future, with longer and more severe fire seasons
projected in this area.

Forest growth is projected to decrease in southern Europe and to increase in northern Europe.
However, the biodiversity of forests is expected to change across Europe, with changing tree
species and increasing threats for specialized plant communities. The limited diversity of tree
species in boreal forests is expected to enhance the risk of significant pest and disease impacts.
Insurance
The frequency and intensity of most types of extreme events is expected to change significantly
as a result of climate change. In the short term, as long as due allowance is made for the
underlying trend, premiums would rise gradually and the insurance market would absorb such
changes without disruption. However, risk knowledge often advances in ‗steps‘, which can lead
to jumps in the price over a short period. In the longer term, particularly in most vulnerable

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sectors or areas, climate change could indirectly increase social disparities as insurance
premiums become unaffordable for a fringe of the population.

Tourism

The economic consequences of climate change for regions where tourism is important can be
substantial. The suitability of southern Europe for tourism is projected to decline markedly
during the key summer months but improve in other seasons. Central Europe is projected to
increase its tourism appeal throughout the year. Projected reductions in snow cover will
negatively affect the winter sports industry in many regions.

Territorial threat

How are different areas affected by climate change?

The Arctic

The Arctic faces major changes including a higher-than-average temperature increase, a decrease
in summer sea ice cover and thawing of permafrost. The reduction of ice cover is accelerating
and projected to continue to impact local natural and human systems. It also opens up potential
additional burdens on the environment, such as extensive oil and gas exploration and the opening
of new shipping routes. Thawing of permafrost has the potential to seriously affect human

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systems, for example by creating infrastructure problems. The fragile Arctic ecosystems have
suffered significantly from above-average temperature increases and these impacts are expected
to continue.

Northern europe

Projections suggest less snow and lake and river ice cover, increased winter and spring river
flows in some parts and decreases in other parts (e.g. Finland), and greater damage by winter
storms. More frequent and intense extreme weather events in the medium to long term might
adversely impact the region, for example by making crop yields more variable.

North western europe

Coastal flooding has impacted low-lying coastal areas in north-western Europe in the past and
the risks are expected to increase due to sea level rise and an increased risk of storm surges.
North Sea countries are particularly vulnerable. Higher winter precipitation is projected to
increase the intensity and frequency of winter and spring river flooding, although to date no
increased trends in flooding have been observed.

Central and eastern europe

Temperature extremes are projected to be a key impact in central and eastern Europe. Together
with reduced summer precipitation this can increase the risk of droughts, and is projected to
increase energy demand in summer. The intensity and frequency of river floods in winter and
spring (in various regions) is projected to increase due to greater winter precipitation. Climate
change is also projected to lead to higher crop-yield variability and more frequent forest fires.

Mediterranean region

The Mediterranean region has been subject to major impacts over recent decades as a result of
decreased precipitation and increased temperature, and these are expected to worsen as the
climate continues to change. The main impacts are decreases in water availability and crop
yields, increasing risks of droughts and biodiversity loss, forest fires, and heat waves. Increasing
irrigation efficiency in agriculture can reduce water withdrawals to some degree, but will not be
sufficient to compensate for climate-induced increases in water stress. In addition, the

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hydropower sector will be increasingly affected by lower water availability and increasing
energy demand, while the tourism industry will face less favourable conditions in summer.
Environmental flows, which are important for the healthy maintenance of aquatic ecosystems,
are threatened by climate change impacts and socio-economic developments.

Cities and urban areas

In previous years, increasing urban land take and urban population growth have in many places
increased the exposure of European cities to different climate impacts such as heatwaves,
flooding, and droughts. The impacts of extreme events such as the flooding of the river Elbe in
2002 or the urban drainage flood in Copenhagen in 2011 demonstrate the high vulnerability of
cities to extreme weather events. In the future, ongoing urban land take, growth and
concentration of population in cities, as well as an aging population, will contribute to further
increase the vulnerability of cities to climate change. Urban design, urban management and
enhancing green infrastructure may partly address these effects.

Mountain areas

The increase in temperature is particularly significant in many mountain regions, where loss of
glacier mass, reduced snow cover, thawing of permafrost and changing precipitation patterns,
including less precipitation falling as snow, have been observed and are expected to increase
further. This could lead to an increase in the frequency and intensity of floods in some mountain
areas (e.g. in parts of Scandinavia) that can impact people and the built environment. Additional
projected impacts include reduced winter tourism, lower energy potential from hydropower in
southern Europe, a shift in vegetation zones and extensive biodiversity loss. Plant and animal
species living close to mountain tops face the risk of becoming extinct due to the inability to
migrate to higher regions.

The retreat of the vast majority of glaciers also affects water availability in downstream areas.
3.3. Trends in Global Carbon Emissions

In 2020, the COVID-19 crisis slowed down the global economy, resulting in a decrease of global
CO2 emissions by about 5%. In 2021, global anthropogenic fossil CO2 emissions rebounded and
by 5.3% in comparison of 2020, totaling 37.9 Gt CO2, just 0.36% below 2019 levels.

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China, the United States, the EU27, India, Russia and Japan remained the world‘s largest CO2
emitters. Together they account for 49.2% of global population, 62.4% of global Gross Domestic
Product, 66.4% of global fossil fuel consumption and 67.8% of global fossil CO2 emissions. All
six largest emitters increased their fossil CO2 emissions in 2021 compared to 2020, with India
and Russia having the largest increases in relative terms (10.5% and 8.1%).

More broadly, among the 16 countries and regions each responsible for more than 1% of global
emissions, seven countries - China, India, Russia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Brazil and Turkey - have
higher CO2 emissions in 2021 than in 2019 (before the pandemic), with Turkey showing the
highest increase (+7.9%). By comparison, the EU27 and eight other countries – the United
States, Japan, South Korea, Indonesia, Canada, South Africa, Mexico, and Australia – emitted
less in 2021 than in 2019, with Mexico showing the largest decrease (-13%).

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Topic Four: Impacts of Climate Change
4.1. Environmental impacts of climate change

Ecosystems are communities of living things, including plants, animals, and microorganisms,
that interact with each other and the physical world. People depend on ecosystems for many
benefits, such as food, water, clean air, building materials, and recreation. Ecosystems can be
big, like the one that surrounds Yellowstone National Park, or as small as a single fallen tree.
They can also overlap with one another or be part of larger ecosystems. These connections
between ecosystems also make them dependent on one another, and not simply dependent on the
organisms within them.

Climate change affects ecosystems in many ways. Climate controls how plants grow, how
animals behave, which organisms thrive, and how they all interact with the physical
environment. As habitats experience different temperatures, precipitation patterns, and other
changes, the organisms that make up ecosystems feel the effects.

Climate Impacts on Ecosystems

Climate change affects ecosystems at multiple levels, from the populations that make up
ecosystems to the services they provide to communities, economies, and people. Four key
impacts are described here.

1. Changes in Species and Populations

As the climate changes, some species will adapt by changing their behavior, physical
characteristics, or how their bodies function. Others will not be able to adapt. As a result, climate
change could lead to expansions, reductions, or extinctions of some populations. These changes,
in turn, can affect the overall biodiversity of a region.

Plants and animals may also change the geographic range they inhabit in response to
changing climatic conditions. Changing temperature and water conditions have already
altered the ranges of many plants and animals. As temperatures have warmed in the United
States, some land animals have moved to the (typically cooler) north by an average of 3.8 miles
per decade. Some marine species have also shifted north by more than 17 miles per decade.

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2. Changes in the Timing of Natural Events and Cycles

Many plants and animals rely on cues in nature, including temperature and water conditions, to
trigger certain stages of their life cycles. As the climate changes, these cues can change at
different rates, or potentially not all. As a result, species that depend on one another at certain
times of the year may no longer be in sync.

For example, plankton are an important food source for young fish, but they tend to react more
quickly to changes in temperature than the fish. This means the plankton might not be as
available when growing fish need it most. Also, if a bird migrates at the same time each year, it
could reach its destination to find that, due to shifting temperatures, its main food source grew
too early and is no longer available.

3. Changes in Ecosystem Interactions

Climate change is also changing the way species and populations interact with the environment
and one another. These impacts can be felt throughout an entire ecosystem.

For example, climate change is increasing the spread of invasive species in some areas. An
invasive species is one that is not native to an area. Invasive species can outcompete native
plants and animals, bring in new diseases, and cause other problems. These changes can create
significant environmental and economic harm.

As ocean water warms, invasive fish species, such as the tropical lionfish, are expected to move
north along the Atlantic coast, threatening native species. This can also hurt humans, as lionfish
are venomous and can sting people.

Climate change can also affect food webs. A food web is the whole set of feeding relationships
among different organisms in an ecosystem. At the bottom of a food web are organisms like
plants and plankton. Other animals, higher in the web, rely on them as food sources. Climate
impacts on any part of a food web can affect the whole system, and even other ecosystems
altogether. From the example above, if young fish cannot find enough food in the estuaries, their
predators in the ocean could feel the effects as well.

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 4. Altered or Reduced Ecosystem Services

Climate change is affecting some of the critical services that ecosystems provide to society. For
example, ecosystems provide a bounty of food to people. Climate changes, like drought and heat,
could affect the availability and quality of some foods, as well as farmers‘ ability to grow certain
crops.

Climate change can also affect ecosystem services such as carbon capture and storage. Forest
ecosystems play a critical role in the carbon cycle, helping to absorb carbon dioxide from the
atmosphere and store it in roots, soil, and the forest floor. But climate-driven increases in
wildfires, flooding, pests, and diseases can limit the ability of an ecosystem to provide this
important service.

4.2. Climate change and crop production

Direct and indirect effects of climate change on cropping systems
Anthropogenic climate change is already altering biological systems, including plant and animal
communities on a global scale. This has both direct and indirect implications for agroecosystems,
and specifically for agricultural businesses and communities. Direct impacts include changes in
average, minimum and maximum temperatures, precipitation patterns, and frequency of extreme
weather events. All of these changes are expected to lead to varying crop yield decreases in
some, though not all, cropping systems, especially nearing the end of the 21st century.
Temperature plays an especially important and complex role in crop yield, profitability, and food
security. All plant species, including agricultural crops, have temperature thresholds above which
they will not develop properly. For example, a 1°C increase in average temperature will lead to
an 8-10% decrease in corn yield, and a 9% decrease in rice yie. In addition to increasing average
temperatures, climate change also leads to increasing minimum temperatures. The effects of
increasing minimum temperatures on perennial crops (such as apples) can include early bud
break in temperate regions, which can lead to yield decreases if a late frost follows. These crops
require an accumulation of cold temperatures (i.e. chilling hours) in order to produce at rates that
are profitable in commercial production systems. Some annual crops are also affected by
warming minimum temperatures, for example warmer temperatures can lead to decreased rates
of carbohydrate accumulation in corn crops and consequently lower yields. Meanwhile,

20
increasing maximum temperatures can lead to lower marketable yields due to disruption of
pollination and fruit development. For example, corn (zea maize) experiences decreased pollen
viability in temperatures above 35°C, and kernel growth can be delayed in temperatures above
30°C. Of course, temperature is not the only climate change factor that influences crop fitness,
and changes in environmental conditions caused by climate change do not affect all crops
equally. Crop responses to CO2, temperature, and precipitation changes vary, and these
responses are further complicated by other differences such as crop family and variety, regional
topography, and more. For example, two groups of crop plants, C4 plants (i.e. grasses such as
corn, sugarcane, amaranth, and many weeds) and C3 plants (i.e. beans, rice, wheat, potatoes) use
different cellular processes for photorespiration. Of the two, C4 plants are more efficient in high
CO2 environments because they minimize photorespiration. This makes C4 plants less sensitive
to high ambient air temperature, while C3 plants are relatively more sensitive. As CO2 levels
continue to rise, it is likely that C4 plants will experience preferential benefits, while C3 plants
struggle to thrive. It has been found that the accumulated influence of temperature and
precipitation since 2008 have already led to a decrease in median yields of four major food
crops: soy, rice, maize, and wheat. Some exceptions include regional increases in these crops
including Argentina (soy), China (rice and maize), and some parts of the United States (wheat).
It is likely that these trends will continue into the future.

Indirect effects of climate change on agroecological systems also impact crop production.
Lengthening growing seasons can disrupt plant and insect relationships, which can both decrease
the harm to crops from herbivorous insects while also interrupting the benefits crops derive from
pollinators. Severe weather events (which will become more frequent and severe because of
climate change) are important drivers of disease emergence in crop. Since environmental factors
(e.g. temperature, humidity, precipitation, and soil conditions) play a major role in plant
pathology, it is assumed that new plant diseases and increased severity of these diseases will be
observed as weather patterns continue to shift over the coming decades. However, crop systems
will be affected differently by infectious agents depending on host susceptibility to these
diseases, the infection mechanisms, as well as the geographical distribution of these diseases.

At the regional scale, climate change also puts pressure on ecological communities, in some
cases reducing biodiversity as species responses change through ―time (e.g. phenology), space

21
(e.g. range) and self (e.g. physiology)‖, but this relationship is threatened by the negative impacts
of climate change on biodiversity. The loss of both global and local biodiversity is anticipated to
have serious negative impacts on agroecosystems in the future.

Effects of climate change on agricultural economies

Climate change will affect the economies of countries around the globe, with the most direct
impacts on those nations whose economies rely heavily on natural resources and agriculture.
Three major agricultural economic concerns related to climate change exist.

First, potential yield decreases because of climate change are of great concern. For example,
predictions show that climate change will likely decrease the yields of rice, wheat, and corn
in China by 36%, 18%, and 45%, respectively. This will undoubtedly affect the international
trade and prices of these staple foods around the globe. In the United States, projections show
significant decreases in yield and associated economic declines in corn and soybeans, two
crops widely grown in the midwestern agricultural region.
The second concern is the impact of shifting environmental conditions on global and national
gross domestic product (GDP). Costinot et al. (2016) analyzed ten crops important to
agriculture globally, and found that current projected yield decreases will likely lead to a
0.25% reduction in global GDP. Importantly, this study also took into account several other
factors that contribute to global and local economic impacts of climate change on agricultural
production. These factors include, but are not limited to, the degree of elasticity in the world
market between crop varieties or species (i.e. red wheat versus white wheat, both triticum
species) and crop families (i.e. wheat versus rice).
Third, socio-economic impacts of climate change include job loss in the agricultural sector.
For example, the 2016 drought in the United States led an estimated loss of 1,815 full and
part time agricultural jobs in the state of California. The ripple effects into agriculture-related
sectors of the state economy broadened the job loss estimates to 4,700 full and part time jobs
not including undocumented agricultural workers. A counter example to this is the long-term
increase in earnings for workers in the agricultural sector following Hurricanes Katrina and
Rita (which hit the U.S. Gulf Coast in 2005).

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Overall, climate change is expected to have a negative impact on food security and food
production. With the world‘s population likely growing to 9 billion people by mid-century
(2050), it is clear that we will have to produce more food in both environmentally and socially
sustainable ways (Godfray et al. 2010), with an emphasis on meeting the needs of the most
marginalized and food insecure. These needs will be exacerbated by the challenges of climate
change, which are expected to reduce the global food supply through decreased yield, resulting
in decreased food availability and increased prices. In addition, it is probable that extreme
weather events, increasing temperatures, and other shifts in weather patterns caused by climate
change will lead to interruptions in transportation of agricultural commodities and inputs,
reductions in food safety and storage, and diminished nutritional value.

4.3. Health impacts of climate change

Top Climate Impacts on Healt

Health impacts from climate change vary depending on factors like a person‘s age, medical
condition, income, and where they live. Four key impacts are described in this section.

1. Threats to Safety and Health from Extreme Weather

As the climate changes, some extreme weather events are becoming more frequent and/or
intense, posing risks to people‘s health and safety. For instance, droughts can create dust, which
can lead to respiratory illness. Storms and floods can cause injuries, damage to homes and
buildings, and infections from contaminated water. Disrupted services are a particular risk for
those who need regular medical care, such as older adults, pregnant women, infants, children, or
people with chronic illnesses.

Temperatures are also likely to rise in many places as the climate changes. Exposure to extreme
or prolonged heat can cause exhaustion, heat stroke, kidney and heart disease, and pregnancy
complications. In fact, extreme heat is already the leading cause of weather-related deaths in the
United States.

2. Threats to Water, Food, and Air Quality

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Children are especially vulnerable to lung illnesses and complications from asthma when they
are exposed to ground-level ozone and wildfire smoke.

Extreme weather and heat caused by a changing climate affects the quality of water, food, and
air. Rising temperatures can lead to harmful algal blooms, many of which produce toxins that
make people sick. Increased rainfall, storms, and flooding can contaminate water resources with
viruses and bacteria, causing gastrointestinal and other illnesses. Rising temperatures also
contribute to drought and reduced snowpack, ultimately reducing the availability of certain
drinking water supplies.

Climate change impacts on food vary widely. Longer growing seasons may be helpful for some
crops, but detrimental to others. Taken together, these changes will present added challenges to
farmers looking to plant successful crops that sustain their livelihood. A warmer climate may
also lead to more pests or limit the types of crops that can grow in an area. This may make it
harder for some people to access safe, nutritious food. In addition, climate change may increase
people‘s exposure to certain bacteria that can cause illnesses, such as Salmonella or E. coli.

Climate-related extreme weather and heat can worsen air quality. Wildfires and dust from
droughts can increase outdoor air pollution. Hot weather can increase ground-level
ozone. Bacteria and mold from flooding can lead to pollutants indoors. Poor air quality poses
human health risks, including heart disease and stroke, asthma and other respiratory diseases,
pregnancy complications, and some cancers.

3. Insect- and Tick-Related Diseases

Deer ticks that may spread Lyme disease are most active from April to October.

Warmer temperatures have widened the range where ticks can live. Ticks may carry Lyme
disease, which can cause long-term illness if not treated properly. Since 1991, the incidence of
Lyme disease in the United States has nearly doubled.

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Warmer temperatures also create conditions that help mosquitoes thrive. For example, among
several factors that can affect West Nile virus transmission, mild winters, which may be more
frequent due to climate change, have been linked to outbreaks of the disease.

4. Threats to Mental Health and Well-Being

Both immediate and long-term climate change effects can contribute to mental health challenges,
including depression, anxiety, and post-traumatic stress. For instance, climate-related natural
disasters can be traumatic, especially for children. Natural disasters can lead to a loss of stability,
community, and sometimes one‘s home or property. Households that experience floods report
higher levels of anxiety and depression, sometimes for years afterwards. Natural disasters and
droughts can also lead to more tobacco and alcohol use, as well as domestic violence. In
addition, heat overall has been linked to increases in violence.

4.4. Livestock production and climate change

Climate change is a major concern for current livestock systems worldwide. Global warming and
its associated changes in mean climate variables and climate variability affect feed and water
resources as well as animal health and production. Climate change also has implications for the
processing, storage, transport, retailing and consumption of livestock products. The ability of
current livestock systems to support livelihoods and meet the increasing demand for livestock
products is thus threatened.

The livestock sector currently plays a key role in food supply and food security. Livestock
products (meat, milk and eggs) contribute 15% and 31% of global per capita calorie and protein
supply, with regional variations. About 30% and 6% of global ruminant meat and milk
production originates from grazing systems, on land that is often poorly suited for cropping.
Furthermore, livestock provides a range of other services, including as a source of draught
power, a means of transportation, a source of nutrients for poor soils, a source of income
generation and diversification, and a form of financial capital, all of which contribute to the
overall well-being and resilience of many communities. Over 844 million people worldwide
receive some income from agriculture, and the livestock sector contributes about 40% of
agricultural value-added. Livestock contributions to food security and other sustainability

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dimensions will be affected by climate change, although the full extent and magnitude of the
impacts remain unknown.

Lack of water and increased frequency of drought in certain countries will lead to a loss of
resources. Consequently, as exemplified by many African countries, existing food insecurity and
conflict over scarce resources will be exacerbated.
In pastoral and agro-pastoral systems, livestock is a key asset for poor people, fulfilling multiple
economic, social and risk management functions. The impact of climate change is expected to
heighten the vulnerability of livestock systems and reinforce existing factors that are affecting
livestock production systems, such as rapid population and economic growth, rising demand for
food (including livestock) and products, conflict over scarce resources (land tenure, water,
biofuels, etc). For rural communities, losing livestock assets could trigger a collapse into chronic
poverty and have a lasting effect on livelihoods. The direct effects of climate change will
include, for example, higher temperatures and changing rainfall patterns, which could translate
into the increased spread of existing vector-borne diseases and macro-parasites, accompanied by
the emergence and circulation of new diseases

These effects will be evident in both developed and developing countries, but the pressure will
be greatest on developing countries because of their lack of resources, knowledge, veterinary and
extension services, and research technology development. Some of the indirect effects will be
brought about by, for example, changes in feed resources linked to the carrying capacity of
rangelands, the buffering abilities of ecosystems, intensified desertification processes, increased
scarcity of water resources, decreased grain production. Other indirect effects will be linked to
the expected shortage of feed arising from the increasingly competitive demands of food, feed
and fuel production, and land use systems.

There are several ways in which climate change will affect livestock systems (Table 1)
In general, higher average temperatures will tend to accelerate the growth and development of
plants. Rising temperatures may lead to improved plant productivity in parts of the tropical
highlands where cool temperatures currently constrain plant growth. On the other hand, increases
in maximum temperatures can lead to severe yield reductions and reproductive failure; in a crop

26
such as maize, for example, each degree day spent above 30 °C can reduce yield by 1.7% under
drought conditions. For livestock, most species have perform best at temperatures between 10
and 30 °C, and at temperatures above 30 ºC, cattle, sheep, goats, pig and chickens all reduce their
feed intake 3-5% for each 1°C increase.

Robust conclusions can be drawn concerning the negative effects of increased temperature on
feed intake, reproduction and performance across the range of livestock species. Changes in
rainfall amounts, distribution, and intensity have direct effects on the timing and duration of crop
and pasture growing seasons and on plant growth. Impacts of the increases in rainfall variability
that are expected are not well understood. The negative effects of climate change on freshwater
systems are expected to outweigh the benefits of overall increases in global precipitation due to
warming.
Many studies show a beneficial effect (CO2 stimulation) on C3 crops and limited if any direct
effect on C4 plants, which include the tropical grasses as well as maize and sorghum, for
example. However, the impact of increased CO2 concentrations on plant growth under typical
field conditions is uncertain and in some cases not yet fully understood. There are quality issues
too: increased CO2 can benefit grass growth and development but can also affect nitrogen
content of plant components. Crop residues are a key dry-season feed resource for ruminants.
Currently there is only limited information on possible climate change impacts on stover
production and quality. Changes in temperature, rainfall regime and CO2 levels will affect
grassland productivity and species composition and dynamics, resulting in changes in animal
diets and possibly reduced nutrient availability for animals.
Table 1. Direct and indirect impacts of climate change on livestock production systems, adapted
from Thornton and Gerber (2010).

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 The emergence, spread and distribution of livestock diseases may all be affected by climate
change via pathways such as higher temperatures affecting the rate of development of pathogens
or parasites, shifts in disease distribution that may affect susceptible animal populations, and
effects on the distribution and abundance of disease vectors. Increasing climate variability and
increasing frequency of drought and flood will have substantial impacts on food availability and
environmental security for livestock keepers. The nature of these changes and impacts in the
future are still largely unknown, though a recent study estimated that a global increase of 1% in
annual rainfall variability (expressed as the coefficient of variation) would increase the number
of people living in areas of high rainfall variability in developing countries by 100 million, with
associated increases in food insecurity as a direct result, particularly in Africa.
Impacts on rangelands
The results of some new simulations of the impacts of climate change on Africa‘s rangelands are
shown in Figure 1. Future projected changes in Aboveground Net Primary Productivity (ANPP)
in Africa‘s rangelands during the present century are shown for two future emissions pathways:
intermediate (RCP4.5, blue) and high-end (RCP8.5, orange). ANPP and livestock production,
productivity and profitability are closely linked. The spatial distribution of percentage change in
ANPP production by the 2050s and RCP8.5 (high-end emissions) are shown in relation to the
mean value of 1971-1980.

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 4.5. Climate change and food security
―Food security exists when all people, at all times, have physical and economic access to
sufficient, safe and nutritious food that meets their dietary needs and food preferences for an
active and healthy life‖ (World Food Summit, 1996). This definition gives rise to four
dimensions of food security: availability of food, accessibility (economically and physically),
utilization (the way it is used and assimilated by the human body) and stability of these three
dimensions. Climate change threatens to reverse the progress made so far in the fight against
hunger and malnutrition. As highlighted by the latest assessment report of the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate change (IPCC), climate change augments and intensifies risks to food security
for the most vulnerable countries and populations. Four out of the eight key risks induced by
climate change identified by IPCC AR5 have direct consequences for food security:
• Loss of rural livelihoods and income
• Loss of marine and coastal ecosystems, and livelihoods
• Loss of terrestrial and inland water ecosystems, and livelihoods
• Food insecurity and breakdown of food systems
The earliest and the more impacted are, the most vulnerable countries and populations, including
in arid and semi-arid areas, landlocked countries and small island developing states. Climate
change will also have broader impacts through effects on trade flows, food markets and price
stability and could introduce new risks for human health. Greatly expanded efforts to respond to
climate change are needed immediately to safeguard the capacity of food systems to ensure
global good security.
The latest IPCC report confirms the main findings of previous IPCC reports on the evolution of
the climate as well as its main physical effects, such as consequences for land and ocean
temperature change, sea level rise and ocean acidification. It also brings better understanding of
potential spatial changes in precipitation, in intensity and seasonal distribution. Moreover,
improvements in modeling as well as in data collection and use enable us to improve the
projections of climate change impacts in the medium term and at local scales. These
improvements are of crucial importance to better understand and project potential impacts on
agricultural systems.
Climate change generates considerable uncertainty about future water availability in many
regions. It will affect precipitation, runoff and snow/ice melt, with effects on hydrological

29
systems, water quality and water temperature, as well as on groundwater recharge. In many
regions of the world, increased water scarcity under climate change will present a major
challenge for climate adaptation. Sea-level rise will affect the salinity of surface and groundwater
in coastal areas.
Climate change is likely to affect the frequency and intensity of extreme events. The magnitude
of impacts of extreme events on agriculture is already high. FAO's recent analysis of 78 post-
disaster needs assessments in 48 developing countries spanning the 2003–2013 period shows that
25 percent of all economic losses and damages inflicted by medium- and large-scale climate
hazards such as droughts, floods and storms in developing countries affect the agriculture
sectors.

Climate change has both direct and indirect impacts on agricultural production systems. Direct
impacts include effects caused by a modification of physical characteristics such as temperature
levels and rainfall distribution on specific agricultural production systems. Indirect effects are
those that affect production through changes on other species such as pollinators, pests, disease
vectors and invasive species. These indirect effects can play a major role. They are much more
difficult to assess and project given the high number of interacting parameters and links, many of
which are still unknown.
Climate change affects livestock production in multiple ways, both directly and indirectly.
The most important impacts are experienced in animal productivity and health as well as, yields
of forages and feed crops. In various countries in sub-Saharan Africa, 20 to 60 percent losses in
animal numbers were recorded during serious drought events in the past decades. In South
Africa, dairy yields may decrease by 10 to 25 percent because of climate change. Increased
temperatures and reduced precipitation can cause important drops in forage production, such as
the 60 percent deficit of green fodder during the 2003 summer in France.
Climate change and climate variability are impacting forests and their capacity to deliver
the wide range of goods and environmental services on which an estimated 1.6 billion people
fully or partly depend for their livelihoods and resilience. Evidence shows that in various regions
climate change is contributing to decreased productivity and dieback of trees from drought and
temperature stress, increased wind and water erosion, increased storm damage, increased
frequency of forest fires, pest and disease outbreaks, landslides and avalanches, changes in
ranges of forest plants and animals, inundation and flood damage, saltwater intrusion and sea-

30
level rise, and damage from coastal storms. This can jeopardize the contribution of forests to the
resilience of agricultural systems, such as for instance the water and temperature regulation at
landscape level and the provision of habitats for important species like pollinators.
Climate change affects capture fisheries and the development of aquaculture- in marine and
freshwater environments. Impacts occur as a result of both gradual atmospheric warming and
associated physical (sea and inland water surface temperature, ocean circulation, waves and
storm systems) and chemical changes (salinity content, oxygen concentration and acidification)
of the aquatic environment. Increased occurrence of coral reef bleaching has been observed,
threatening habitats of one out of four marine species. Various fish species are already migrating
poleward, resulting in the rapid ―tropicalization‖ of mid- and high-latitude systems. A large-scale
redistribution of global marine fish catch potential is forecast, with a decrease of up to 40 percent
in the tropics, and an increase of 30 to 70 percent in high-latitude regions. In the Mediterranean,
it has been observed that invasive species from lower-latitude regions have arrived in recent
years at the rate of one new introduction every four weeks. Abundance and species diversity of
riverine fish are particularly sensitive to disturbances in the quantity and timing of water flows,
and especially to lower water levels during dry seasons. Pressures on river flows may be
exacerbated by human action to retain water in reservoirs and irrigation channels.
Impacts on production translate into economic and social consequences, affecting food
security
Impact translates from climate to the environment, to the productive sphere, to economic and
social dimensions, bringing a range of additional risks on availability of food, on access to food
and utilization of food, as well as on the stability of these characteristics, for both farm and non-
farm households.
At the farm/household level, climate change impacts may reduce income level and stability,
through effects on productivity, production costs or prices. Such variations can drive sales of
productive capital, such as cattle, which reduces long-term household productive capacity.
Exposure to risks lowers incentives to invest in production systems, often with negative impacts
on long-term productivity, returns and sustainability. Reductions and risks to agricultural income
have also been shown to have effects on household capacity and willingness to spend on health
and education. Evidence from recent analyses of the impacts of various types of weather
anomalies on farm income indicates that the impacts are greatest for the poorest farmers.

31
At national level, exposure to climate risks can trigger shocks on agricultural production and
food availability, with risks of market disruptions, effects on supply and storage systems, as well
as increases in agricultural commodity prices (food and feed), impacting accessibility and
stability of food supplies for the entire population, particularly in countries with significant
shares of the population spending a large part of their income on food. This triggers macro-
economic effects for countries for which agriculture is an important part of GDP and/ or
constitutes an important source of employment. Climatic risks can also hinder agricultural
development by discouraging investments.
At global level, climatic shocks impacting areas of global importance for food supplies can have
remote impacts through effects on:
(i) Supply flows and food price spikes, with increased market volatility; and
(ii) Impacts on bilateral contracts and/or import/export behaviour, with disruption of trade
patterns.
Food price volatility is likely to be exacerbated by climate change. Trade is expected to play a
major role in adjusting to climate-change-driven shifts in agricultural and food production
patterns. Recent experience indicates that climate change effects on food price volatility are
greatly influenced by domestic policies, with export bans contributing to price fluctuations.
Ultimately, global markets will not be accessible to the poorest countries and the poorest
populations without sufficient purchasing power.

32
Figure : Schematic representation of the cascading effects of climate change impacts on
food security and nutrition.
Climate change affects food security in all its dimensions: access, availability, utilization
and stability

33
As shown above, climate change affects food production, and thus food availability. Climate
change will impact the livelihoods and income of small-scale food producers and also, through
food price increases and volatility, the livelihoods of poor net food buyers, restricting access to
food. Impacts of climate change on nutrition have been much less studied. Studies point to
potential changes in the nutritional quality of some foods (e.g. reduced concentration in proteins
and in some vitamins and minerals), due to elevated CO2, particularly for flour from major
cereals and cassava. Climate change can have a variety of impacts on the quality of drinking
water, which is key to the good absorption of nutrients. Climate change has been found to have
an impact on food safety, particularly on incidence and prevalence of food-borne diseases.
Increased climate variability, increased frequency and intensity of extreme events as well as
slow ongoing changes will affect the stability of food supply, access and utilization.

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Topic Five : Responses to Climate Change

There are two areas of response to climate change:

 Mitigation – reducing our impact upon the causes of climate change.

 Adaptation – adapting to the changes that are already, or will occur.

Mitigation

Mitigation involves taking action to increase energy efficiency and sustainability. Improving
these will reduce the emission of greenhouse gases and heighten our ability to manage additional
mean global temperature rise. The UK Government encourages organisations to limit emissions
by using fuel more efficiently and insulating their homes and businesses.

Adaptation

Adaptation means anticipating the adverse effects of climate change and taking appropriate
action to prevent or minimise the damage they can cause. Early action will build in safeguards
that will help to protect heritage around the country. Adaptation strategies are important for
everyone, and are being discussed at every level of government, all around the world

5.1. Climate Change and Forest Management

Clima Mitigation: A human intervention to reduce the sources or enhance the sinks of
greenhouse gases.
Adaptation Adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected
climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities.
GHG Mitigation
 Emission avoidance
 Sequestration
 Substitution

1. Emission avoidance
Avoid conversion of forests

 Forest conversion (to non-forest) and land development liberate carbon from biomass and
soil stocks.
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 Post-deforestation soil cultivation releases 20 to 30% carbon stored in soils (Malmsheimer
et al 2008).
Forest Management
Management actions:
 Global: provide incentives to reduce deforestation and degradation
 Regional to Local:
 Institute and enforce policies to address drivers of deforestation and degradation
 Carefully manage fire, drought, disease, and invasive species

2. Sequestration – use management in forest eco systems to sequester

additional carbon.
Theoretically, sustainable management of forests for timber production would also maintain
carbon stocks over time and at the landscape scale
Forest management actions to increase carbon storage
 Reduce harvest impacts & wastes
 Control fire, pests, and disease
 Increase forest growth
 Control competition
 Enhance regeneration
 Fertilization
 Select for improved/superior stock
 Manage for higher C stocks in stands
 reducing harvest impacts & waste retains forest carbon –
o Manage for additional carbon storage above what the atmosphere already ―sees‖
under the current forest management system, e.g. through longer rotations and
harvesting less than growth rate.
o Encourage use of long-lived wood products sourced from sustainably managed
forests
o Re-use wood products rather than putting them in landfills
3. substitution
 Woods and other forest products used in construction store more carbon, emit less GHGs,
and use less fossil energy
 Manufacturing and construction using materials e.g. steel, concrete, brick, or vinyl is
energy intensive and produces substantial emissions
 However, life cycle analysis to assess carbon accounting from forest through utilization
phases is crucial in order to make an appropriate decision
Summary: 3 Main Approaches for GHG Mitigation
 Emission avoidance – prevent emissions from occurring compared to a ‗business as usual‘
scenario
 Avoided deforestation

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  Reduced impact of catastrophic disturbances (e.g., pests, fire, etc.)
 Sequestration – use management in forest ecosystems to sequester additional carbon
 Afforestation
 Forest management that emphasizes carbon storage and sequesters additional C
relative to ‗business as usual‘ (age class; faster regen)
 Durable wood products that sequester C while in use
 Substitution – reduce greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuels by using wood for energy
and products
 Produce renewable biomass for energy production that replaces fossil fuel emissions
 Wood products used in place of materials that are more energy (or emissions)
intensive to produce

5.2 Climate Change and Water Resources: Responses and Adaptation

Climate change impacts on water resources
Climate change amplifies risks we already face,
and have faced for many years:
 Drought
 Flood
 Water supply shortages and distribution
 Poor water quality
 Disrupted watershed processes
 And so on
Climate Change increases the risks, problems and stakes.
Potential climate change impacts to water
 Longer, warmer growing seasons

 Increased and decreased forest growth and ecosystem productivity

 Warming surface waters

 Intense droughts

 Longer and more severe fire seasons

 Increased insect and disease

Response and adaptation
T
he US Forest Service has completed this at the national level. Called Best management practice
(BMP).

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Also includes an efficient and comprehensive system for monitoring the implementation and
effectiveness of each practice.

BMP Monitoring Protocols

 Standardized procedures

 Focused on BMP objectives

 Emphasize objective observations and techniques

 Interdisciplinary
 Climate adaptive
 All actions that protect and restore water and watersheds are climate adaptive
 Climate change amplifies risks we already face, and have faced for many years:
 We have the knowledge now to understand and adapt. Good news!
 For example, we understand flooding, coastal erosion, how to identify vulnerable land
and people.
Wildlands adaptation
For Example: Restoring groundwater levels in eroded meadows and valley bottoms can
increase watershed resilience in many forested watersheds.
Warming and late-season drying trends greatly increase the ecological importance of wet
mountain meadows and valley bottoms, which provide myriad ecological services.
Restoring groundwater levels in these places adds resistance and resilience to watersheds,
reducing the vulnerability of ecosystem services to climate change.
Agriculture adaptation
 Raise Irrigation efficiency
 Expand drip irrigation
 Improve rain-fed farming
 Shift cropping patterns and crops
 Lift nutritional value
 Expand urban farming
 Improve crops for drought resistance
 Study land suitability for crop choices
 Select the best crop for suitable land
 Promote crop rotation and mixed crops
 Support soil and water conservation
 Employ small dams and small reservoirs

Residential adaptation
Create Mechanisms to Invest in Healthy Watersheds
5.3. Principles and Practices of Climate Vulnerability Assessment

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Climate Change and Vulnerability
 Climate change will lead to changes in geophysical, biological and socio-economic
systems.
 Vulnerability to climate change is the degree to which these systems are susceptible to, and
unable to cope with, adverse impacts.
 Vulnerability of ecosystems and species is partly a function of the expected rapid rate of
climate change relative to the resilience of many such systems.
What is meant by “Resilience
In ecology, resilience is the capacity of an ecosystem to response to a disturbance by resisting
damage and recovering quickly.

Resilience = Resistance + Capacity to recover

 So ability to resist impacts is part of what is meant by most when using the term
―resilience‖.
Components of Vulnerability

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Ability to adapt is afunction of wealth,education,technology,institution,infrastructure, social
capital

Many Human Systems are Sensitive to Climate Change, and Some are Vulnerable (IPCC)
 Human systems that are sensitive to climate change include mainly water resources;
agriculture (especially food security) and forestry; coastal zones and marine systems
(fisheries); human settlements, energy, and industry; insurance and other financial services;
and human health.
 The vulnerability of these systems varies with geographic location, time, and social,
economic, and environmental conditions.

Why assess vulnerability?

 To contribute to climate-aware land-use planning.

 To understand the implications and impacts of rapid climate change.
 To promote resilience you must know vulnerability
 Set priority areas for adaptation.

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  high exposure, high sensitivity,
 adaptability
 Refugia (high value, low sensitivity or exposure, or both)
 Design adaptive responses.
 Provide a base-case description (do-nothing condition).
 Focus and prioritize research and monitoring.

Generalizations about climate change vulnerability of human populations

 Vulnerability will be greater in highly dense populations

 Vulnerability will be greatest in areas of low resources for health care
 Vulnerability will be greatest in areas of low resources for disaster and emergency response
 Vulnerability will be greatest in areas of over allocated, polluted, and inadequate water
supplies
 Vulnerability will be greatest in areas of low diversity of agricultural cropping systems
 Vulnerability will be greatest in areas of high proportion of women and children in the
population
 Greater vulnerability for populations with serious existing problems
 Vulnerability will be greater in low diversity ecosystems
 Vulnerability will be greatest in areas of high stressors, cumulative effects, and
population pressure
 Vulnerability will be greatest in areas of over-allocated and inadequate water supplies
 Vulnerability will be greatest in areas of shallow, fragile, and dry soils
 Greater problems for species already in decline
 Resilience may be weakened in fragmented ecosystems
 Further reductions in habitat will impact threatened, endangered, and rare species
 Ecosystem changes will have significant effects on wildlife and aquatic biota

5.4. Uncertainties in Climate Change

Uncertainty is any departure from complete deterministic knowledge of the relevant system.
Uncertanties in climate change can be categorized differently. For example by types (sources)
or by levels (the difficulty to describe them).
The main reasons why it‘s important to assess and communicate about uncertainties:
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  Necessary for impact and risk analysis
 In many cases, decision-makers can achieve superior outcomes when they take
uncertainties into account (to distinguish situations that do and do not require
precautionary action)
 Communicating uncertainty enhances credibility, makes climate information more
trustworthy

Types of uncertainty

A. Natural variability

Natural variablity (day-to-day variation, year-to-year variation, and decade to decade

variation) is the temporal variation of the atmosphere–ocean system around a mean state due
to natural internal processes within the climate system.

Examples of internal variability: the different position of high and low pressure areas,
differences in air circulation, resulting in day-to-day variations in temperature or rainfall

Examples of variations in natural forcings: solar intensity, volcanic eruptions.

B. Model Biases

Differences in statistics of the observations for the reference period and the climate model
simulation for the same period we call biases.

C. Inhomogenieties

Inhomogeneities are apparant changes in climate in long-term time series for reasons such as
relocations of stations and/or instruments, slow or abrupt changes in the
environment and changes in instruments and measurement practices.

D. Uncertainties in statistics due to limited data

Sometimes called ‗sampling uncertainty‘, regularly this is indicated with a 95% band.

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 E. Scenario uncertainty

Scenario uncertainty is the imperfect knowledge about the socio-economic and technological
developments in the future, resulting in different emissions causing the emission of
greenhouse gasses. This uncertainty is quantified by comparing the (average) impact of the
various emission scenarios or Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) on the future
climate. Model and scenario uncertainties can be reduced by doing more research to better
understand the systems. Using higher resolutions is one of the approaches to better simulate
the climate system.
5.5. Climate Change and Ecosystem Services

Ecosystems are communities of living things, including plants, animals, and microorganisms,
that interact with each other and the physical world.

Climate change affects ecosystems in many ways. Climate controls how plants grow, how
animals behave, which organisms thrive, and how they all interact with the physical
environment. As habitats experience different temperatures, precipitation patterns, and other
changes, the organisms that make up ecosystems feel the effects.

Top Climate Impacts on Ecosystems

Climate change affects ecosystems at multiple levels, from the populations that make up
ecosystems to the services they provide to communities, economies, and people. Four key
impacts are described in this section.

1. Changes in Species and Populations

As the climate changes, some species will adapt by changing their behavior, physical
characteristics, or how their bodies function. Others will not be able to adapt. As a result, climate
change could lead to expansions, reductions, or extinctions of some populations. These changes,
in turn, can affect the overall biodiversity of a region.

1. Changes in the Timing of Natural Events and Cycles

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Many plants and animals rely on cues in nature, including temperature and water conditions, to
trigger certain stages of their life cycles. As the climate changes, these cues can change at
different rates, or potentially not all. As a result, species that depend on one another at certain
times of the year may no longer be in sync.

For example, plankton are an important food source for young fish, but they tend to react more
quickly to changes in temperature than the fish. This means the plankton might not be as
available when growing fish need it most. Also, if a bird migrates at the same time each year, it
could reach its destination to find that, due to shifting temperatures, its main food source grew
too early and is no longer available.

3. Changes in Ecosystem Interactions

Climate change is also changing the way species and populations interact with the environment
and one another. These impacts can be felt throughout an entire ecosystem.

For example, climate change is increasing the spread of invasive species in some areas. An
invasive species is one that is not native to an area. Invasive species can outcompete native
plants and animals, bring in new diseases, and cause other problems. These changes can create
significant environmental and economic harm.

4. Altered or Reduced Ecosystem Services

Climate change is affecting some of the critical services that ecosystems provide to society. For
example, ecosystems provide a bounty of food to people. Climate changes, like drought and heat,
could affect the availability and quality of some foods, as well as farmers‘ ability to grow certain
crops.

Climate change can also affect ecosystem services such as carbon capture and storage. Forest
ecosystems play a critical role in the carbon cycle, helping to absorb carbon dioxide from the
atmosphere and store it in roots, soil, and the forest floor. But climate-driven increases in
wildfires, flooding, pests, and diseases can limit the ability of an ecosystem to provide this
important service.

5.6. Effective Communications in Climate Change

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  The important and sense of urgency about many environmental problems has also invited
interest in the field of environmental communication.
 Communications is the process of exchanging ideas and conveying information

7 out of 10 nnations at greatest risk to climate change and natural disasters are in Asia and the
Pacific Region.

An urgent need to build awareness of the devastating impact of climate change and mobilize a
critical mass of people to support mitigation and adaptation efforts.

Climate Change Communication

 is the process of transmission and sharing information on the causes and impacts of
climate change; and response measures (both mitigation and adaptation) to climate change

 Climate communication or climate change communication is a field of environmental

communication and science communication focused on the causes, nature and effects
of anthropogenic climate change.

Research in the field emerged in the 1990s and has since grown and diversified to include studies
concerning the media, conceptual framing, and public engagement and response. Since the late
2000s, a growing number of studies have been conducted in developing countries and have been
focused on climate communication with marginalized populations.

 Most research focuses on raising public knowledge and awareness, understanding

underlying cultural values and emotions, and bringing about public engagement and action.
Major issues include familiarity with the audience, barriers to public understanding,
creating change, audience segmentation, changing rhetoric, public health,
storytelling, media coverage, and popular culture

 Why is it important to communicate effectively about climate change?

→ build core people to implement mitigation/adaptation and disaster risk reduction

strategies/influence national policies/integrate traditional knowledge into scientific
research and engage other sectors.

Challenges of Climate Change Communication

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  Confusion: Climate vs weather

 Overwhelming: too much/probabilistic information

 Risk: Decision makers can be risk-averse
 Denial/doubt/disbelief: ―climate change is not occurring‖
 Vested interests: Who benefits from doubt in climate change?

Topic Six: Economics of climate change in agriculture

6.1. Types of costs in the valuation of climate change damages
When translating climate change damages in to economic values, analysts must first understand
the types of costs that would be relevant in a local-scale assessment and the methods used to
define these costs. Costs of climate change can be broadly classified in to two categories: direct
and indirect costs
1) Direct Losses/costs - The direct physical and economic losses that come as an immediate
consequence of climate-related events. Some examples of direct losses could include the cost to
repair damaged infrastructure due to sea level rise, revenue loss in commercial fishing industries
due to ecosystem disruption, or increased energy prices caused by reduction in snowpack and
constrained hydropower generation.
2) Indirect Losses - The indirect consequences of direct losses that compound or become
transparent over broader spatial and temporal scales. These indirect consequences can consist of
either macroeconomic responses or broader systemic losses

For direct losses, impacts can be further classified as 1) Market Impacts and 2) Non-Market
Impacts which are defined below:
1) Market Impacts - Market impacts refer to the change in price of goods and services that are
traded within an existing market. Since these goods and services are regularly bought and sold,
monetary values are already defined by people‘s willingness to pay for it. For example, this
could include the cost of rebuilding or repairing infrastructure that has been damaged by chronic
coastal or riverine flooding.
2) Non-Market Impacts - Non-market impacts refer to goods and services that are not traded
within any financial or economic market. These could also be defined as open-access resources

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that benefit the public, but cannot easily be quantified or expressed in monetary values. In the
field of climate change, non-market impacts typically include:
a) Ecosystem Services - The loss of benefits to humans provided by the natural environment or
healthy ecosystems, such as the capacity of wetlands to mitigate storm water runoff or the
amount of energy savings as a result of temperature regulation provided by dense vegetation.
b) Human Health and Well-being - The impacts of climate events to human mortality,
morbidity, and mental and emotional well-being. This could include the number of lives lost or
the number of people requiring hospitalization after an extreme climate-related event such as a
hurricane.
c) Socio-Cultural Values - The loss of physical and natural assets that may not have significant
economic value, but represent social and cultural values of a specific group or population. For
example, in the Northwest, salmon and other first foods hold economic, cultural, and spiritual
value for tribes and their preservation contributes to the population‘s overall well-being.

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 The Valuation of Direct Losses: Non-Market Impacts
Hedonic Pricing: The basic premise of this method is that the value of non-market goods and
services is, to some extent, reflected in the price paid for goods and services. For example, the
value of environmental conditions of where we work and live is reflected in housing prices or in
labor productivity and thus, income. This can be a useful tool when attempting to appraise the
economic impacts of wildfire and air quality.
Replacement Costs: This method develops values by identifying what it would cost to replace a
public good or service with a man-made system. For example, researchers from Washington
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State developed an economic assessment that valued the loss of snowpack by calculating the
costs of constructing dams large enough to hold the equivalent volume of water that would have
been retained by that snowpack. While the building of new dams in the state has been limited for
decades, the monetization of this ecosystem service can show the financial benefits of policies to
mitigate emissions and subsequently, warming.
Travel Cost: This method identifies values by identifying the costs associated with traveling to
experience a specific good or service. This is specifically used to understand the effects of
climate change to nature-based tourism or recreation. It has been applied to demand estimation
for forest use, hiking, biking, fishing and snow sports.

6.2. Cost and benefit of adaptation and mitigation

Information about the costs and benefits of climate policies is important as large investments are
required for both mitigation and adaptation. Recent studies indicate that the annual global costs
of adaptation are of the order of USD 100 billion over the coming decades. During the same
period, the costs of mitigating global warming to stay within the internationally agreed target of
no more than 2 °C temperature increase, compared to pre-industrial levels, are likely to be many
times higher. Stern (2006) nevertheless concluded that the benefits of mitigating to 2 °C will
outweigh the costs.

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Global studies of the costs and benefits of climate change mitigation make use of Integrated
Assessment Models (IAMs). These models cover the cause-and-effect chain of climate change,
including the economic activities that cause greenhouse gas emissions, the effect of these
emissions on greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere and the oceans, the changes in
temperature and other parameters due to the increased concentrations, and the impact of these
changes on ecosystems and the economy.

Mitigation leads to less climate change and therefore less damage from climate change. These
benefits are only observed after a few decades due to inertia in the climate system. The benefits
of mitigation are achieved by adjusting to climate change. As adaptation does not change the
level of climate change, it will be more difficult if no mitigation takes place.

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