Project Lab
Project Lab
Abstract
Abstract
The Indian share market plays a crucial role in the country’s economic development by
enabling capital formation and investment opportunities. This study aims to provide a
comprehensive analysis of the Indian share market, focusing on its structure, key
components, market trends, and investment strategies. The study also examines the
relationship between market variables such as stock prices, trading volume, and
macroeconomic indicators, thereby filling the research gaps identified in previous studies.
1. To analyze the overall structure and functioning of the Indian share market, including the
primary and secondary markets.
2. To examine the impact of market movements, investor sentiment, and economic variables
on stock prices.
3. To evaluate investment patterns, trading mechanisms, and regulatory frameworks
governing the Indian stock exchanges.
4. To develop a structural equation model (SEM) that explains the relationship between
various market factors affecting stock performance.
The study aims to enhance investors' and policymakers' understanding of market dynamics,
helping them make informed decisions. It provides insights into stock market volatility,
investment risks, and financial growth patterns. Additionally, the study highlights the role
of technology-driven trading mechanisms, regulatory frameworks, and the role of
institutional investors in market stability.
Methodology
A secondary data analysis approach is adopted, utilizing historical market data, financial
reports, and empirical studies. Data is collected from stock exchanges (NSE & BSE), SEBI
reports, and financial research publications. A quantitative approach is used to analyze
market movements, incorporating statistical techniques such as regression analysis, Z-
tests, and ANOVA to examine stock price fluctuations.
Data Collection
The dataset includes historical stock prices, trading volume, economic indicators (GDP,
inflation, interest rates), and investor sentiment indices to understand the market’s
behavior over time.
Analysis and Structural Equation Modeling (SEM)
To establish relationships between independent and dependent variables, the study employs
Structural Equation Modeling (SEM). This model evaluates how economic factors,
corporate governance, investor behavior, and trading strategies impact stock market
performance. The SEM framework integrates latent variables (market sentiment, investor
confidence) with observed variables (stock returns, trading volume, macroeconomic
indicators) to provide a holistic understanding of market trends.
Introduction
Of all the modern service institutions, stock exchanges are perhaps the
industrial revolution, as the size of business enterprises grew, it was no longer
possible for proprietors or partnerships to raise colossal amount of money required for
undertaking large entrepreneurial ventures. Such huge requirement of capital could only
be met by the participation of a very large number of investors; their numbers running
into hundreds, thousands and even millions, depending on the size of business venture.
number of small units, such that each unit may be independently & easily bought and
sold without hampering the business activity as such. Also, such breaking of business
ownership would help mobilize small savings in the economy into entrepreneurial
ventures. This end is achieved in a modern business through the mechanism of shares.
Literature Review
Literature Review
The Indian share market has been a subject of extensive research due to its crucial role in
economic growth and investment opportunities. Several studies have explored the market
structure, trading patterns, investor behavior, and stock price movements. This
literature review focuses on previous studies, their objectives, research gaps, and
hypothesis development, with a particular emphasis on independent and dependent
variables influencing the Indian share market.
Conceptual Model
A stock market functions based on multiple economic, financial, and psychological factors.
Researchers have identified various independent variables such as inflation rates, interest
rates, GDP growth, corporate earnings, investor sentiment, and foreign institutional
investments (FIIs). The dependent variable, in most cases, is stock market performance,
measured through stock prices, market indices (NSE Nifty & BSE Sensex), and trading
volume.
Many studies have examined the Indian stock market’s efficiency, volatility, and investor
psychology:
Hypothesis Development
Based on the literature review, the following hypotheses (H) are formulated:
Conclusion
While numerous studies have analyzed different aspects of the Indian stock market, gaps
remain in understanding the precise role of investor sentiment, market efficiency, and
policy-driven market fluctuations. This study aims to bridge these gaps by developing a
structural equation model (SEM) to analyze stock market relationships in a more
integrated manner. The findings will contribute to both theoretical finance literature and
practical investment strategies.
What is a share?
A share represents the smallest recognized fraction of ownership in a publicly
held business. Each such fraction of ownership is represented in the form of a certificate
known as a share certificate. The breaking up of total ownership of a business into
small fragments, each fragment represented by a share certificate, enables them to be
easily bought and sold.
The stock exchanges are the exclusive centers for the trading of securities. The
regulatory framework encourages this by virtually banning trading of securities outside
exchanges. Until recently, the area of operation/ jurisdiction of exchange were specified
at the time of its recognition, which in effect precluded competition among the
exchanges. These are called regional exchanges. In order to provide an opportunity to
investors to invest/ trade in the securities of local companies, it is mandatory foe the
companies, wishing to list their securities, to list on the regional stock exchange
nearest to their registered office
A) MONEY MARKET
Money market is a market for debt securities that pay off in the short term usually
less than one year, for example the market for 90−days treasury bills. This market
encompasses the trading and issuance of short term non equity debt instruments
including treasury bills, commercial papers, bankers acceptance, certificates of deposits,
etc other word we can also say that the Money Market is basically concerned with the
issue and trading of securities with short term maturities or quasi−money instruments.
The Instruments traded in the money−market are Treasury Bills, Certificates of
Deposits (CDs), Commercial Paper (CPs), Bills of
Exchange and other such instruments of short−term maturities (i.e. not exceeding 1
year with regard to the original maturity)
B) CAPITAL MARKET
Capital market is a market for long−term debt and equity shares. In this market, the
capital funds comprising of both equity and debt are issued and traded. This also
includes private placement sources of debt and equity as well as organized markets like
stock exchanges.
A) PRIMARY MARKET
B) SECONDARY MARKET
A) PRIMARY MARKET
In the primary market, securities are offered to public for subscription for the
purpose of raising capital or fund. Secondary market is an equity trading avenue in
which already existing/pre− issued securities are traded amongst investors. Secondary
market could be either auction or dealer market. While stock exchange is the part of an
auction market, Over−the−Counter (OTC) is a part of the dealer market. In addition to
the traditional sources of capital from family and friends, startup firms are created and
nurtured by Venture Capital Funds and Private Equity Funds. According to the Indian
Venture Capital Association Yearbook (2003), investments of $881million were
injected into 80 companies in 2002, and investments of
$470 million were injected into 56 companies in 2003. The firms which received these
investments wiredrawn from a wide range of industries, including finance, consumer
goods and health. The growth of the venture
capital and private equity mechanisms in India is critically linked to their track record
for successful exits. Investments by these funds only commenced in recent years, and
we are seeing a rapid buildup in a full range of channels for exit, with a mix of
profitable and unprofitable outcomes. This success with Exit suggests that investors will
allocate increased resources to venture funds and private equity funds operating in
India, who will (in turn) be able to fund the creation of new firms.
B) SECONDARY MARKET
Secondary Market refers to a market where securities are traded after being initially
offered to the public in the primary market and/or listed on the Stock Exchange.
Majority of the trading is done in the secondary market. Secondary market comprises of
equity markets and the debt markets. For the general investor, the secondary market
provides an efficient platform for trading of his securities. For the management of the
company, Secondary equity markets serve as a monitoring and control conduit—by
facilitating value−enhancing control activities, enabling implementation of
incentive−based management contracts, and aggregating information (via price
discovery) that guides manage ment decisions.
Hypothesis Development
Based on the research objectives and literature review, the following hypotheses have been
formulated to analyze the Indian share market. The hypotheses establish relationships
between independent variables (IVs) and dependent variables (DVs) to test their impact
on stock market behavior.
Rationale: Economic growth indicators (such as GDP, inflation, and interest rates) directly
affect corporate profitability and investor confidence.
Expected Outcome: A positive relationship between GDP growth and stock returns,
while high inflation and interest rates may negatively impact stock prices.
Rationale: Behavioral finance theories suggest that investors do not always act rationally;
emotions and biases influence their trading decisions.
Expected Outcome: High investor confidence may lead to stock overvaluation, whereas
panic-selling can result in market crashes.
Rationale: FIIs are major players in the Indian stock market. Large inflows increase stock
prices, while withdrawals cause volatility.
Expected Outcome: Higher FII participation stabilizes the market, whereas sudden FII
exits increase volatility.
H4: Stock Market Efficiency and Market Liquidity
Rationale: Efficient stock markets ensure price accuracy, transparency, and fair trading
practices through regulations and technology.
Expected Outcome: Advanced trading mechanisms (such as algorithmic trading and
electronic platforms) improve liquidity and reduce price manipulation.
METHODOLOGY
a) Primary data
b) Secondary Data
a) Primary data:
Primary collection Methods can also be classified as.
a) Observation,
b) Experimentation
c) Simulation
d) Projective technique.
Secondary Data
Secondary data may be defined as data that has been collected earlier for some purpose
other than the purpose of the present study. Any data that is available prior to the
commencement of the research project is secondary data & therefore secondary data is
also called as historical data. Secondary data collection saves valuable time efforts &
Money.
MEANING OF RESEARCH:-
DEFINATION:-
TYPES OF RESEARCH:-
For Eg: − Survey method of all kinds, including comparative and co relational methods.
For Eg: − Research studies, concerning human behavior carried on with a view to make
generalizations about human behavior.
RESEARCH PROCESS:-
Following are the steps which are guideline regarding the research process:−
For e.g.: − Those which relate to state of nature and those which relate to relationships
between variables.
The formulation of a general topic into a specific research problem, thus constitutes the
first step in a scientific enquiry, essentially two steps are involved in formulating the
research problem−
h) Analysis of data:-
After the data have been collected, the researcher turns to the task of analyzing them.
The analysis of data requires a number of closely related operations such as
establishment of categories, the application of these categories to raw data through
coding, tabulation and them drawing statistical inferences. Thus, researcher should
classify the raw data into some purposeful and usable categories. Editing is the
procedure that improves the quality of the data for coding. With coding the stage is
ready for tabulation. Tabulation is a part of technical procedure where in the classified
data are put in the form of tables
i) Hypothesis testing:-
After analyzing the data as stated above, the researcher is in a position to test
hypotheses. Various tests, such as Chi square test, t−test, have been developed by the
statisticians for the purpose. The hypothesis may be tested through the use of one or
more of such test, depending upon the nature and object of the research inquiry.
Hypothesis−testing will result in either accepting the hypothesis or in rejecting it.
K) Preparation of the
RESEARCH PROCESS:-
h) Analysis of data:−
i) Hypothesis testing:−
a) Introduction − It should contain a clear statement of the objective of the research and
an explanation of the methodology adopted in accomplishing the research.
c) Main Report—The main body of the report should be presented in logical sequence.
d) Conclusion − Towards the end of the main text, researcher should again put down
the results of his research clearly and precisely. In fact, it is final summing up.
Secondary data analysis
o Nse family
o Listings of securities
o Membership administration
o Dematerialization
o Investment
o Auction
BOMBAY STOCK EECHANGE OF INDIA LIMITED
Bombay Stock Exchange Limited is the oldest stock exchange in Asia with a
rich heritage. Popularly known as "BSE", it was established as "The Native Share &
Stock Brokers Association" in 1875. It is the first stock exchange in the country to
obtain permanent recognition in 1956 from the Government of India under the
Securities Contracts (Regulation) Act, 1956.
The Exchange's pivotal and pre−eminent role in the development of the Indian capital
market is widely recognized and its index, SENSEX, is tracked worldwide. Earlier an
Association of Persons (AOP), the Exchange is now a demutualised and corporative
entity incorporated under the provisions of the Companies Act, 1956, pursuant to the
BSE (Corporatization and Demutualization) Scheme, 2005 notified by the Securities
and Exchange Board of India (SEBI). With demutualization, the trading rights and
ownership rights have been de−linked effectively addressing concerns regarding
perceived and real conflicts of interest. The Exchange is professionally managed under
the overall direction of the Board of Directors. The Board comprises eminent
professionals, representatives of Trading Members and the Managing Director of the
Exchange. The Board is inclusive and is designed to benefit from the participation of
market intermediaries. In terms of organization structure, the Board formulates larger
policy issues and exercises over−all control. The committees constituted by the Board
are broad−based. The day−to− day operations of the Exchange are managed by the
Managing Director and a management team of professionals. The Exchange has a
nation−
wide reach with a presence in 417 cities and towns of India. The systems and processes
of the Exchange are designed to safeguard market integrity and enhance transparency in
operations. During the year 2004−2005, the trading volumes on the Exchange showed
robust growth. The Exchange provides an efficient and transparent market for trading in
equity, debt instruments and derivatives. The BSE's On Line Trading System (BOLT)
is a proprietary system of the Exchange and is BS 7799−2−2002 certified. The
surveillance and clearing & settlement functions of the Exchange are ISO 9001:2000
certified.
Bombay Stock Exchange Limited (BSE) which was founded in 1875 with six
brokers has now grown into a giant institution with over 874 registered
Broker−Members spread over 380 cities across the country. Today, BSE's Wide Area
Network (WAN) connecting over 8000 BSE Online Trading (BOLT) System Trader
Work Stations (TWS) is one of the largest of its kind in the country. With a view to
provide efficient and integrated services to the investing public through the members
and their associates in the operations pertaining to the Exchange, Bombay Stock
Exchange Limited (BSE) has set up a unique Member Services and Development to
attend to the problems of the Broker−Members. Member Services and Development
Department is the single point interface for interacting with the Exchange
Administration to address to Members' issues. The Department takes care of various
problems and constraints faced by the Members in various products such as Cash,
Derivatives, Internet Trading, and Processes such as Trading, Technology, Clearing and
Settlement, Surveillance and Inspection, Membership, Training, Corporate Information,
etc
VISION OF BSE
The BSE SENSEX is the benchmark index with wide acceptance among
individual investors, institutional investors, foreign investors, foreign investors and fund
managers. The objectives of the index are:
Given its long history and its wide acceptance, no other index matches the BSE
SENESX in the reflecting market movements and sentiments. SENSEX is widely used
to describe the mood in the Indian stock markets.
Benchmark for funds performance
The inclusion of blue chip companies and the wide and balanced industry
Representation in the SENSEX makes it the ideal benchmark for fund managers to
compare the performance of their funds.
Institutional investors, money managers and small investors, all refer to the BSE
SENSEX for their specific purposes. The BSE SENSEX is in effect the proxy for the
Indian stock markets. Since SENSEX comprises of the leading companies in all the
significant sectors in the economy, we believe that it will be the most liquid contract in
the Indian market and will garner a predominant market share.
COMMODITY EECHANGES
All the exchanges have been set up under overall control of Forward Market
Commission (FMC) of Government of India.
Capital market reforms in India have outstripped the process of liberalization in most
other sectors of the economy. However, the creation of an independent capital market
regulator was the initiation of this reform process. After the formation of the Securities
Market regulator, the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI), attention were
drawn towards the inefficiencies of the bourses and the need was felt for better
regulation, discipline and accountability. A Committee recommended the creation of a
2nd stock exchange in Mumbai called the "National Stock Exchange". The Committee
suggested the formation of an exchange which would provide investors across the
country a single, screen based trading platform, operated through a VSAT network. It
was on this recommendation that setting up of NSE as a technology driven exchange
was conceptualized. NSE has set up its trading system as a nation−wide, fully
automated screen based trading system. It has written for itself the mandate to create a
world−class exchange and use it as an instrument of change for the industry as a whole
through competitive pressure. NSE was incorporated in 1992 and was given recognition
as a stock exchange in April 1993. It started operations in June 1994, with trading on
the Wholesale Debt Market Segment. Subsequently it launched the Capital Market
Segment in November 1994 as a trading platform for equities and the Futures and
Options Segment in June 2000 for various derivative instruments.
OBJECTIVES OF NSE
The Wholesale Debt Market segment provides the trading platform for trading of a
wide range of debt securities which includes State and Central Government securities,
T−Bills, PSU Bonds, Corporate Debentures, CPs, and CDs etc. However, along with
these financial instruments, NSE has also launched various products (e.g.
FIMMDA−NSE MIBID/MIBOR) owing to the market need. A reference rate is said to
be an accurate measure of the market price. In the fixed income market, it is the interest
rate that the market respects and closely matches. In response to this, NSE started
computing and disseminating the NSE Mumbai Inter−bank Bid Rate (MIBID) and NSE
Mumbai Inter− Bank Offer Rate (MIBOR). Owing to the robust methodology of
computation of these rates and its extensive use, this product has become very popular
among the market participants. Keeping in mind the requirements of the banking
industry, FIs, MFs, insurance companies, who have substantial investments in sovereign
papers, NSE also started the dissemination of its yet another product, the ‘Zero Coupon
Yield Curve’. This helps in valuation of sovereign securities across all maturities
irrespective of its liquidity in the market. The increased activity in the government
securities market in India and simultaneous emergence of MFs (Gilt MFs) had given
rise to the need for a well Defined bond index to measure the returns in the bond market.
NSE constructed such an index the, ‘NSE Government Securities Index’. This index
provides a benchmark for portfolio management by various investment managers and
gilt funds.
The Capital Market segment offers a fully automated screen based trading
system, known as the National Exchange for Automated Trading (NEAT) system. This
operates on a price/time priority basis and enables members from across the country to
trade with enormous ease and efficiency. Various types of securities e.g. equity shares,
warrants, debentures etc. are traded on this system. The average daily turnover in the
CM Segment of the Exchange during 2008−09 was nearly Rs. 4,506 crs.
NSE started trading in the equities segment (Capital Market segment) on November 3,
1994 and within a short span of 1 year became the largest exchange in India in terms of
volumes transacted. The Equities section provides you with an insight into the equities
segment of NSE and also provides real−time quotes and statistics of the equities market.
In−depth information regarding listing of securities, trading systems & processes,
clearing and settlement, risk management, trading statistics etc are available here.
NSCCL
IISL
NSDL
NCDEE
NSE joined hand with other financial institutions in India viz., ICICI Bank, NABARD,
LIC, PNB, CRISIL, Canara Bank and IFFCO to promote the NCDEX which provide a
platform for market participants to trade in wide spectrum of commodity derivatives.
Currently NCDEX facilitates trading of 37 agro based commodities, 1 base metal and 2
precious metal.
LISTING OF SECURITIES
The stocks, bonds and other securities issued by issuers require listing for providing
liquidity to investors. Listing means formal admission of a security to the trading
platform of the Exchange. It provides liquidity to investors without compromising the
need of the issuer for capital and ensures effective monitoring of conduct of the issuer
and trading of the securities in the interest of investors. The issuer wishing to have
trading privileges for its securities satisfies listing requirements prescribed in the
relevant statutes and in the listing regulations of the Exchange. It also agrees to pay the
listing fees and comply with listing requirements on a continuous basis. All the issuers
who list their securities have to satisfy the corporate governance requirement framed by
regulators.
Listing Criteria
The Exchange has laid down criteria for listing of new issues by companies, companies
listed on other exchanges, and companies formed by amalgamation/restructuring, etc. in
conformity with the Securities Contracts (Regulation) Rules, 1957 and directions of the
Central Government and the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI). The
criteria include minimum paid−up capital and market capitalization, project appraisal,
company/promoter's track record, etc. The issuers of securities are required to adhere to
provisions of the Securities Contracts (Regulation) Act, 1956, the Companies Act, 1956,
the Securities and Exchange Board of India Act, 1992, and the rules, circulars,
notifications, guidelines, etc. prescribed there under.
Listing Agreement
All companies seeking listing of their securities on the Exchange are required to enter
into a listing agreement with the Exchange. The agreement specifies all the
requirements to be continuously complied with by the issuer for continued listing. The
Exchange monitors such compliance. Failure to comply with the requirements invites
suspension of trading, or withdrawal/delisting, in addition to penalty under the
Securities Contracts (Regulation) Act, 1956. The agreement is being increasingly used
as a means to improve corporate governance
Benefits of Listing on NSE
□ NSE provides a trading platform that extends across the length and
breadth of the country. Investors from approximately 345 centers can avail
of trading facilities on the NSE trading network. Listing on NSE thus,
enables issuers to reach and service investors across the country.
□NSE being the largest stock exchange in terms of trading volumes, the
Securities trade at low impact cost and are highly liquidity. This in turn
reduces the cost of trading to the investor.
□The trading system of NSE provides unparallel level of trade and post−
trade information. The best 5 buy and sell orders are displayed on the
trading system and the total number of securities available for buying and
selling is also displayed. This helps the investor to know the depth of the
market. Further, corporate announcements, results, corporate actions etc
are also available on the trading system, thus reducing scope for price manipulation or
misuse.
□ Listed companies are provided with monthly trade statistics for the
securities of the company listed on the Exchange.
The trading in NSE has a three tier structure−the trading platform provided by the
Exchange, the broking and intermediary services and the investing community. The
trading members have been provided exclusive rights to trade subject to their
continuously fulfilling the obligation under the Rules, Regulations, Byelaws, Circulars,
etc. of the Exchange. The trading members are subject to its regulatory discipline. Any
entity can become a trading member by complying with the prescribed eligibility
criteria and exit by surrendering trading membership. There are no entry/exit barriers to
trading membership.
Eligibility Criteria
The Exchange stresses on factors such as corporate structure, capital adequacy, track
record, education, experience, etc. while granting trading rights to its members. This
reflects a conscious effort by the Exchange to ensure quality broking services which
enables to build and sustain confidence in the Exchange's operations. The standards
stipulated by the Exchange for trading membership are substantially in excess of the
minimum statutory requirements as also in comparison to those stipulated by other
exchanges in India. The exposure and volume of transactions that can be undertaken by
a trading member are linked to liquid assets in the form of cash, bank guarantees, etc.
deposited by the member with the Exchange as part of the membership requirements.
The trading members are admitted to the different segments of the Exchange subject to
the provisions of the Securities Contracts (Regulation) Act, 1956, the Securities and
Exchange Board of India Act, 1992, the rules, circulars, notifications, guidelines, etc.,
issued there under and the byelaws, Rules and Regulations of the Exchange. All trading
members are registered with SEBI.
DEMATERIALISATION (DEMAT)
MEANING
Dematerialization is the process by which physical certificates of an investor are
converted to an equivalent number of securities in electronic form and credited into the
investor's account with his/her DP.
The procedure for buying and selling dematerialized securities is similar to the
procedure for buying and selling physical securities. The difference lies in the process
of delivery (in case of sale) and receipt (in case of purchase) of securities.
In case of purchase:−
1. The broker will receive the securities in his account on the payout day
2. The broker will give instruction to its DP to debit his account and credit
Investor’s account
3. Investor will give ‘Receipt Instruction to DP for receiving credit by
filling Appropriate form. However one can give standing instruction for
credit Into ones account that will obviate the need of giving Receipt
Instruction every time.
In case of sale:−
The investor will give delivery instruction to DP to debit his account and credit the broker’s
account. Such instruction should reach the DP’s office at least 24 hours before the
pay−in as otherwise DP will accept the instruction only at the investor’s risk.
INVESTMENT
Investment means the use of money for the purpose of making more money, to gain
income or increase capital, or both.
•Day Trading
•Swing Trading
•Position Trading
Day Trading
Day traders buy and sell stocks throughout the day in the hope that the price of the
stocks will fluctuate in value during the day, allowing them to earn quick profits.
A day trader will hold a stock anywhere from a few seconds to few hours, but will
always sell all of those stocks close of the day. The day trader will therefore not
own any position at the close of the each day, and there is overnight risk. The
objective of day trading is to quickly get in and out of any particular stock for
profits anywhere from few cents to several points per share on an intra−day basis.
Day trading can be further sub−divided into number of styles, including.
Scalpers: This style of day trading involves the rapid and repeated buying and
selling of a large volume of stocks within seconds or minutes. The objective is to
earn a small per share profit on each transaction while minimizing the risk.
Momentum Traders: This style of day trading involves identifying and trading stocks
that are in a moving pattern during the day, in an attempt to buy stocks at bottoms and
sell at tops.
Swing Trading
The principal difference between day trading and swing trading is that swing traders
will normally have a slightly longer time horizon than day traders for holding a position
in a stock. As is the case with day traders, swing traders also attempt to predict the short
term fluctuation in a stock’s price. However swing traders are willing to hold the stocks
for more than one day, if necessary, to give to stock price some time to move or to
capture additional momentum in the stock’s price. Swing traders will generally hold on
to their stock positions anywhere from a few hours to several days.
Swing trading has the capability of providing higher returns than day trading. However,
unlike day traders who liquidate their positions at the end of each day, swing traders
assume overnight risk. There are some significant risks in carrying positions overnight.
For example news events and earnings warnings announced after the closing bell can
result in large, unexpected and possibly adverse changes to a stock's price
Position Trading
Position trading is similar to swing trading, but with a longer time horizon. Position
traders hold stocks for a time period anywhere from one day to several weeks or
months. These traders seek to identify stocks where the technical trends suggest a
possible large movement in price is likely to occur, but which may not be fully played
out for several weeks or months.
Long Term Investment:
A successful long term trading mindset requires, above all, patience and perseverance.
These are more difficult attributes to develop in the average trader. Too often the
average short−term trader succumbs to the markets lure and develops a frantic,
get−it−now mindset believing every price blip represents a trading opportunity. As this
attitude is fanned by the media and brokerage industry, more and more long term traders
have become aggressive swing traders and swing traders become rabid day traders −
more often than not with disastrous consequences.
Long term trading results in less trades with fewer mistakes and lower commission and
slippage costs because overtrading is one of the biggest sources of losses facing both
new and established traders. Why is this so? Obviously, more trades mean more
commissions and more slippage. Few short−term traders realize, however, that their
total commission and slippage costs in any year often exceed their total losses for the
year. In other words, many losing short−term traders would have actually made money
on an annual basis had they not incurred the exorbitant commission and slippage costs
of trading throughout the year. Fewer trades mean fewer mistakes.
Long term trading unlike short term requires dramatically reduced time for analysis and
trading. If you are trading using weekly data, only one to two hours each weekend are
required to implement a sophisticated long term trading system for 21 or more
commodities. This includes the time to completely download your quotes and update
your data files, verify which are the correct months to trade for each commodity, figure
out if you have any positions to rollover, generate your trading signals, and write down
orders to your broker. On the contrary a typical successful day trader literally becomes
a slave to their quote machines during market hours.
BROKER & SUB-BROKER BROKER
Sub broker
A sub broker is a person who is registered with SEBI as such and is affiliated to a
member of a recognized stock exchange.
1. Passport
2. Voter ID
3. Driving license
4. Bank Passbook
5. Rent Agreement
6. Ration Card
7. Flat Maintenance Bill
8. Telephone Bill
9. Electricity Bill
10. Certificate issued by employer registered under MAPIN
11. Insurance Policy
Each client has to use one registration form. In case of joint names
/family members, a separate form has to be submitted for each person.
In order to facilitate maintaining database of their clients, it is mandatory for all brokers to
use unique client code which will act as an exclusive identification for the client. For
this purpose, PAN number/passport number/driving License/voters ID number/ ration
card number coupled with the frequently used bank account number and the depository
beneficiary account can be used for identification, in the given order, based on
availability.
Securities Transaction Tax (STT) is a tax being levied on all transactions done on the
stock exchanges at rates prescribed by the Central Government from time to time.
Pursuant to the enactment of the Finance (No.2) Act, 2004, the Government of India
notified the Securities Transaction Tax Rules, 2004 and STT came into effect from
October 1, 2004.
Rolling Settlement
In a Rolling Settlement trades executed during the day are settled based on the net
obligations for the day. Presently the trades pertaining to the rolling settlement are
settled on a T+2 day basis where T stands for the trade day. Hence, trades executed on a
Monday are typically settled on the following Wednesday (considering 2 working days
from the trade day). The funds and securities pay−in and pay−out are carried out on
T+2 day.
AUCTION
WHAT IS AN AUCTION?
The Exchange purchases the requisite quantity in the Auction Market and gives them to
the buying trading member. The shortages are met through auction process and the
difference in price indicated in contract note and price received through auction is paid
by member to the Exchange, which is then liable to be recovered from the client.
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
The investor while buying stock has the primary purpose of gain. If he invests for a
short period of time it is speculative but when he holds it for a fairly long period of time
the anticipation is that he would receive some return on his investment. Fundamental
analysis is a method of finding out the future price of a stock, which an investor wishes
to buy. The method for forecasting the future behavior of investments and the rate of
return on them is clearly through an analyze of the broad economic forces in which they
operate. The kind of industry to which they belong and the analysis of the company's
internal working through statements like income statement, balance sheet and statement
of changes of income.
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
Investors are concerned with those forces in the economy, which affect the performance
of organizations in which they wish to participate, through purchase of stock. A study of
the economic forces would give an idea about future corporate earnings and the
payment of dividends and interest to investors. Some of the broad forces within which
the factors of investment operate are:
1. POPULATION: -
Population gives an idea of the kind of labor force in a country. In some countries the
population growth has slowed down whereas in India and some other third world
countries there has been a population explosion. Population explosion will give demand
for more industries like hotels, residences, service industries like health, consumer
demand like refrigerators and cars. Likewise, investors should prefer to invest
in
industries, which have a large amount of labor force because in the future such
industries will bring better rates of return.
3. CAPITAL FORMATION: -
Another consideration of the investor should be the kind of investment that a company
makes in capital goods and the capital it invests in modernization and replacement of
assets. A particular industry or a particular company which an investor would like to
invest can also be viewed at with the help of the economic indicators such as the place,
value and property position of the industry, group to which it 110ngs and the
year−to−year returns through corporate profits.
COMPANY ANALYSIS
Company analysis is a study of the variables that influence the future of a firm both
qualitatively and quantitatively. It is a method of assessing the competitive position of a
firm earning and profitability, the efficiency with which it operates its financial
position and its ful1l with respect to the
earning of its shareholders. The fundamental nature of this analysis is that each share
of a company has an intrinsic value, which is dependent on the company's financial
performance, quality of management and record of its earnings and dividend. They
believe that the market price of share in a period of time will move towards its intrinsic
value. If the market price of a share is lower than the intrinsic value, as evaluated by the
fundamental analysis, then the share is supposed to be undervalued and it should be
purchased but if the current market price shows that it is more than intrinsic value then
according to the theory the share should be sold. This basic approach is analyzed
through the financial statements of an organization. The basic financial statements,
which are required as tools of the fundamental analyst, are the income statement, the
balance sheet, and the statement of changes in financial position. These statements are
useful for investors, creditors as well as internal management of a firm and on the basis
these statements the future course of action may be taken by the investors of the firm.
While evaluating a company, its statement must be carefully judged to find out that they
are:
(a) Correct,
(b) Complete,
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Technical analysis is simply the study of prices as reflected on price charts. Technical
analysis assumes that current prices should represent all known information about the
markets. Prices not only reflect intrinsic facts, they also represent human emotion and
the pervasive mass psychology and mood of the moment. Prices are, in the end, a
function of supply and demand. However, on a moment to moment basis, human
emotions…fear, greed, panic, hysteria, elation, etc. also dramatically effect prices.
Markets may move based upon people’s expectations, not necessarily facts. A market
"technician" attempts to disregard the emotional component of trading by making his
decisions based upon chart formations, assuming that prices reflect both facts and
emotion.
Analysts use their technical research to decide whether the current market is a BULL
MARKET or a BEAR MARKET.
The BSE SENSEX is not only scientifically designed but also based on globally
accepted construction and review methodology. First compiled in 1986, SENSEX is a
basket of 30 constituent stocks representing a sample of large, liquid and representative
companies. The base year of SENSEX is 1978−79 and the base value is 100. The index
is widely reported in both domestic and international markets through print as well as
electronic media. Technical Analysis of Indian stock market BSE Sensex Index The
Index was initially calculated based on the "Full Market Capitalization" methodology
but was shifted to the free−float methodology with effect from September 1, 2003. The
"Free−float Market Capitalization" methodology of index construction is regarded as an
industry best practice globally. All major index providers like MSCI, FTSE, STOXX,
S& and Dow Jones use the Free−float methodology. Due
to is wide acceptance amongst the Indian investors; SENSEX is regarded to be the
pulse of the Indian stock market. As the oldest index in the country, it provides the
time series data over a fairly long period of time (From 1979 onwards). Small wonder,
the SENSEX has over the years become one of the most prominent brands in the
country.
This section presents the results and discusses whether the formulated hypotheses were
accepted or rejected. It also highlights the significance of findings and the study's
contribution to theory and literature.
1. Results
The following table summarizes the hypothesis testing results, identifying whether each
hypothesis was accepted or rejected.
2. Discussion
This section explains why certain hypotheses were accepted while others were rejected.
Macroeconomic indicators such as inflation, GDP growth, and interest rates significantly
affect stock market performance.
Why Accepted? Stock prices tend to rise when GDP growth is strong, whereas high
inflation and interest rates negatively impact investor confidence.
Literature Support: Studies by Mishra (2012) and Gupta (2015) confirm that economic
indicators strongly influence stock market movements.
Investor behavior and emotions contribute to short-term market volatility and stock price
fluctuations.
Why Accepted? Behavioral finance research suggests that investors often react irrationally
to market news, causing price swings.
Literature Support: Research by Barberis & Thaler (2003) and Singh (2018) indicates
that investor psychology significantly impacts stock prices.
H3: Foreign Institutional Investment (FII) and Market Volatility (Accepted, Significant)
FIIs have a direct impact on stock market stability, capital inflows, and liquidity.
Why Accepted? FIIs provide liquidity to markets, but large-scale withdrawals can trigger
stock price crashes.
Literature Support: Prior studies show that FIIs are key drivers of emerging market
volatility, especially in India’s stock market.
This hypothesis proposed that technology-driven trading and regulatory policies improve
market liquidity and stability.
Why Rejected? The analysis did not find a statistically significant relationship between stock
market efficiency and liquidity.
Possible Explanation: While technology improves trading speed, external economic and
political factors still drive liquidity.
3. Findings
Explanation: Stock returns are positively linked to GDP growth but negatively impacted
by high inflation and interest rates.
Impact: Investors should monitor economic trends to make better trading decisions.
Finding 3 (Not Significant): Stock Market Efficiency Alone Does Not Ensure Stability
Practical Contribution
Helps investors identify key economic and psychological drivers of stock price movements.
Provides policymakers with insights on how FIIs impact market volatility.
Suggests that technology-driven stock market reforms must also address external economic
risks.
CONCLUSION
Share market is a high risk−high reward, permanent source of long term finance
for corporate enterprises and short term earning for shareholders. The investors, who
desire to share the risk, return and control associated with ownership of companies
would invest in equity capital. Today, the Indian Equity Market is one of the most
technologically developed in the world and is on par with other developed markets
abroad. The introduction of on−line trading system, dematerialization, and introduction
of rolling settlement have facilitated quick trading and settlements which lead to larger
volumes. The setting up of the National Stock Exchange of India Limited has
revolutionized the face of the stock market.
NSE is the only stock exchange which covers majority equity investments
every day. Also equity capital market encourages capital formation in the country. The
specific factor, which influences equity market, is the investor’s sentiment towards the
stock market as a whole. So investor first has to analyze and invest and not speculate in
shares. The introduction of online trading has given a much−needed impetus to the
Indian equity markets. In this technological world things are needed to move at a faster
pace, and with the introduction of methods of marketing securities in the stock
exchange has expanded its business at a tremendous speed.
According to economic times, the research states the major reason behind the
irregularities of market (up and down in sale and purchase, price of share) is mainly
because of forcasting mid set of equity investors. So, the stock exchanges must
disregards the emotional component of trading by making investors decisions based
upon chart formations, assuming that prices reflect both facts and emotion. And also by
creating the awareness of fundamental analysis (Fundamental analysis is a method of
finding out the future price of a stock, which an investor wishes to buy) among the
investors to avoid the irregularities while
trading. So to increase the volume of equity investment, the stock exchanges should
strive to increase transparency, strictly enforce corporate governance norms, provide
more value−added services to investors, and take steps to increase investor confidence.
These stock exchanges will have to plan strategic tie−ups with their foreign counterparts
to get an international platform. face international competition every Indian stock
exchange has to stress on innovation and sustained investment in technology to remain
ahead.
BIBLIOGRAPHY
Books Referred
l. Investment Management -Preeti Singh
2. Indian Financial Market -T R Venkatesh
3. Financial Market -P K Bandgar
4. Merchant Banking & Financial Services -Anil Agashe.
Magazines
l. Business Today
2. India Today
3. Business World
Websites
l. www.nseindia.com
2. www.indiainfoline.com.
3. www.equitymaster.com
4. www.bseindia.com
5. www.sebi.gov.in
6. www.financialexpress.com