uANTHTATIVE TECRMOUES FOR Busiies Aucusr 2022 Sees = SEE CO .COM DE . (OP CODE : 22102762 . GREE (CBcs) REGULAR EXAMINATIONS, AUGUST 2022 Ce Fourth Semester | eee Coacriri2 - QUANTITATIVE TECHNIQUES FOR BUSINESS-II (Common f (For Regular Ail B.Com Degree Programmes) “andidates : 2020 Admission Only] (For Private Candidates : 2017 Admission Onwards) 4E9TZEDD ‘Time: 3 Hours Max. Marks : 80 Part A i Answer any ten questions. Each question carries 2 marks., What is coefficient of Determination? | The coefficient of determin: the square of the correla Fee ee oe the correlation (1 between scores and of the deviations are taken into account without ston (denoted by 2) is considering the magnitude. i.c., equal weightage is given for both small and big changes for the purpose analyze how differences in one variable of calculating correlation, If the second value is | canbe explained by a difference in a second viriable, greater than its first value, the sign of deviation is taken | Tgives us an idea about how many data points fall as "+", [Pit is less, the sign of deviation is taken as *~ within the results of the line formed by the regression |) "Ifthe first and second values are same, the deviation equation. i.c., it indicates the percentage variation in will be denoted as ‘0°. Therefore, the only data required | y explained by x-variables. The value of coefficient to calculate correlation under this method is the of determination ranges from 0 t0 1. An R? value of } direction of change (increase or decrease) of X and zero means that the dependent variable cannot be Y variables. predicted from the independent variable, whereas an |) 4, 3 ee R? of 1 means that the dependent variable can be predicted from the independent variable without any eror. Calculate coefficient of correlation. Rank| 1|1|4|3|2 Rank | 2 sio6lil2[a Ry 4 2 = |efafa]ela|e % 28 = 168; 6 =D? _ Ne-N What is concurrent deviation method? In this method, each value in the data set is compared with it§ previous value and only the signs What is simple regression? In simple regression, analysis is restricted to two variables only, of which one is independent and the other is dependent. For example, the demand for a product is predicted for the next year on the basis of its price only without considering the anticipated changes in the income of consumers, changes in the price of substitute/complimentary products, advertisement effect ete. Why the line of regression analysis are called” line of best fit. ‘The regression line is sometimes called the “line of, best fit” because it is the line that fits best when drawn, through the points. It is a line that minimizes the distance of the actual scores from the pre ted score What do you mean by Quantity Index Number? A quantity index number measures thé change in quantity/volume of the goods produced, sold or consumed. ‘The methods used for constructing quantity index number are similar to that of construeting price index. The only difference is that all the *p" s and *q” 8 in the formula of price index.number are to be interchanged together De‘QUANTITATIVE TECHNIQUES FOR | [BUSINESSI= AUGUST 2022 Explain Fisher's ideal method of constructing index numbe Fisher's ideal index is the “5 indices. geometric mean of Laspeyers” and Paasche’ The formula for culating Fisher’s ideal ind Spry Epa Eo es: This method is known vantages: ” cal den is x100 “ideal it Advantage due to the followi of both base rl hence, avi ‘and Paatsehe’s 4) Ie takes into account the quanti ‘and current yearas weights jated with Laspeyte year ihe bi method bb) Fisher's forma whieh is eo” constructing index numb the unit tes whic time reversal Jy are used @8 c) This method satisfies test and factor reversal test test of consistency the following th Disadvantages: This method has limitations: 4) This method is more time consuming than other methods, his 1b) Italso does not satisfy the circular (81 whicl used as the test of consistency. | 5. What do you mean by Splicing of Index. ‘Numbers? ‘cedure involved in connecting (WO with different base period series cece, to make continuity is termed as “Splicing Inother words, splicing means the process of reducing aaoverlapping series of indices with diferent base into a continuous index number series. Secular Trend? Secular trend ich gives the The statistical pro index number series, periods What do you mean by The word trend means ‘tendency’ js that component of the time series whi general tendency of the data for a Jong period. In other ‘nord, Secular Trend can be explained as the general tendency of a data to increase or decrease or stagnate over a long period of time. List out the merits of free hand curve method. ‘This method is used to measure the trend. Fe data are plotted on a graph, taking time on vertical (Y) this purpose, ion, ‘These ite free hand usly drawn. fons and would show of the data. Merits cludes short run xf out by drawing @ curve previou sport run oscilla al tendency & smootien along with the mrinates the sl Jong period genet the of this method 1) ,AUl kinds of in with the help sribed trends can be a 4 curve method st method to Prepare of free | re pet and tou, doe yatta me eulations oF other com ine preparation ¢) Even a layman an Finderstand the method of preparation and presentation easily and henee it js widely used in idifferent applications | 4h) Ithelps to understand the character of time series | aie select appropriate trend | ti. State the classical definition of probabilty. | Classical Theory of probability (Axiomatic approach) states that each joutcome of an event is armed to have an equal Probal ility of occurrence, iment of ‘n" simple roach, In an expe itty ofeach outcome is assigned jfta coin is tossed, the probability | vod as Ys. While rolling a 6 +5? as its face is 1/6, Walla alent w gan] trams # Re playing cards, probability of getting a “Clover King’ is 1/52. Gambling problems are generally characterized by random experiments which have 7 possible outcomes which fre equally likely to oceur. It means that none of them fe piace x bok Hyer ces ttm, cet OSS ASE enve they are said to be in a symmetrical position 12. List the sample space in selecting two from 3 men and 4 women. ‘A sample space is a collection or a sel ‘outcomes of a random experiment. after another, the Under this app? ‘outcomes, the probal ‘as I/n. For example, of getting “Head” is assign faced die, probability of getting t of possible 1) If the selection is done one possibilities of selecting two from 3 men and 4 women ar e: (MW), (WM), (MM), (WW) [(a) Man is selected at first and the woman as second (b) Woman is selected at first and the man & second (c) Both are men (d) Both are women] If the two are selected together, the total numb the horizontal (X) axis and values on the ith of ways are: 7C) ways. = 21 ways. axis and all the plotted points are joined together wi a straight line. This curve would be irregular a iy LL (10x2=20 Maris)ée Dn eel ‘QuANTTATIVE TECHNIQUES FoR BuswEss, awoUny ea peeps seenremmaarienisnemmenmeest EET, Part B 16. From the following data, construct 2 ative Answer any sis ques Bre rane | ie ny six questions, Number of prices ander Simple MEAT yu on ‘ach question carries § marks, Methud and Average Relative Method 13, Does correlation alwas Piancetton always signi cause and effec The correlation correla lation study indicates the existence of |. Sartation, bot it does not indicate the causa indepen cesbiD. In other words, the dependent and independent variables cannot be idemified by Caleulting the ales cannot be identified by 14. Define probable error? Wh Coefficient of correlation may be computed from {| 4” the samples and hen creep into its measurement. The purpose of calculating the probable er79r is to find out the extent to whieh the eorrelation rs is dependable. Therefore, Probable Error is basically the correlation coefficient that is fully responsible for Dye [see the value of the coefficients and its accuracy. N=4] 3p, = 93 Karl Person's Probable error is defined 2 ‘Simple Aggregate Method - PE. = 0.6745 x 127 , 199 = 136-5 =EPLx100= E45 Where, r = Correlation coefficient of ‘n’ pairs of PL ous ‘observations; n= Total number of observations. Simple Average of Relati 15. Given the following data, what would be the . PL x100 e456 2146.05 possible yield of rice per acre when rainfall is ae ar = S828 «100 sayre'ss 29cm? Coefficient of correlation between raivifall h N compute LEPC ing and yield is 0.8. 17. From the following date O00 Numbers natapar ra Paasche’s and Fisher's Inde -ctusbal = as the base year” | ‘Mean 2s | 40 cae Sai 3 RGAE 6 Articles eae seertane 2 4 Price [Quantity X (Average rainfall) = 25; a 70 4 Y (Average yield) 1208; 70 72 ox (6 of rainfall) = N9=3; Zo (ure. of yield) = V36 = 6; € ay (o of yield) Fe er 72 Calculation of Regression Co-efficient (b,,): D 2 ayain east Ans: 4 or a XE ESE ae rem [ope [ae Pe | a | ria [ one | peas | pe Regression Line of Yon X: ¥-¥=b,(%-¥) [Hem | we} a 2S TOMT |g Tas | 30 Replacing vaso gt Reston anton: Ae tao ao | 500 | 200 Y—40 = 1.6 (X—25) = 1.6X ~ 5 Y-16X+40-40 + ¥-16X+0 >Y=1.6X ]["c_| ao | in | ss | 14 | 990 | 720 | 770 | 560 Belimation of Values of ¥ (Yield) on X (Rainfall based |] 2-1-2 Tas | «| sao | 300 | 270 |_150 oon Regression equation: A eae aenae ae Yield (Y) when Rainfall (X) is 29 ems: IN deg erie listen | pene Y.on X = 1.6X = 29 » 1.6= 46.40 ems ‘ 2190 | 1420 | 1585 | 1040 VEEL TET LLL[QUANTITATIVE TECHNIQUES FOR BUSINESS. = AUGUST 2022 ) 3 balls are one of exch colour Calculation of Indices using Weighted Aggregative Methods: [Method | P — 7C, «120, 44C, _ T2124 ae ——3C, wn Laspeyre's Methoxl G (or 0.19) 253 random from a gF0Up | children. Find them will be P ms are chosen at 3 men, 2 women and 4 21, Four perso containing, the probability that children. sche's Method exactly 2 of Fishers Ideal Method Exactly 2 are children isis of time series is useful to Part C Answer any two questions. Each question carries 15 marks. the total number of ible shows sist destination, their 18. Explain how analy businessmen and industrialists used to analyse the non= jch are constantly fluctuating and industrialists frequentl nd industrialists freaveNNy |! 29. The following tl Time series analysi stationary data-things whi over time, Businessmen Csetime series analysis because value of shares, currency J ing, tab exchange rates, product demand etc. are always: foreign tourists visited at a tour” fi changing. Examples of time series analysis include: ‘age group and the number of persons interested Weather data, Rainfall measurements, Temperature in trucking.Compute Pearsonian correlation co- readings, Sales, Stock prices, Interest rates etc. efficient of the following: variables. N.B: Give marks if the candidate explained the Age grou (30.30 | 30-40] 40-50] 50-60] 60-70] applications of Time series analysis using any Total number of tourists |2000 | 5000| 6000} 4000 1000 other examples also. visited 19. Given the trend equation Y = 35 + Se t3x2 Final number oftourixts | 500 | 2000| 1500), 800 | 100 participated in trucking ‘Tyear). Change the origin Correlation between the “Age group” and “Proportion | (Origin: 1999, x unit = ‘of participation in trucking” of the equation to 2005. year of origin Existing trend line based on the as 1999; Y= 35 + $x + 30° : TPswee0f ay | 2008 (Forward shifting): Visit _ Pai. Years of difference = 2005 - 1999 = + 6 25 [2000 [500 [25 In forward shifting, “X? inthe existing equation is to ] | 3515008 2000 | 40 be replaced with (X + K). ie 45 [6000 | 1500 [25 | 5 y=35+5(X+6)+3(K+6F 35 [4000 | soo | 20 | 15 wy a 35 + 5x $30 130K + 6) @ [1000 [100] 10 | 28 > Y= 65+ 5X +3(X + 6)? | tame NB: Award full marks if the first step is correct. [¥=35+5(X4+O43(K+ 07] 12 white and 4 green balls. 20. A bag contains 7 red, Fines balls are drawn. What is the probability that a) 3 balls are all white ; and b) 3 balls are one of 5 pea ‘ 5x 1125— (25)? 5x 550~ (20) each colour. ~2000-500 12, _ 12x11 «10 a) 3 balls are all white - — 23 45625 — 625 y2750-400 20 - =-_— -2500 vor 070-124) 0.729 ULE: LM, 8- WUaiarivE TECHNIQUES FOR BU NESS N= AUOUSY 82 SSR SEN (—__ NB: Award 12 marks if the correlation has heen ‘Normal equation wsion Equations usin calculated by ignoring one of the 3 variables sills given). ie. ‘ Repression equation oF ¥ on X: [| Weyression eaualo 4) Correlation between a4 bx axe 2 Correlation beoween “Age group” and “No. of _ ei ‘Visits | Mia 20-30 | 2000 stot 30-40 | S000 1150 10.81 7506 100+ 11500 o 0400 [40-30 | e000 gNOOS = 750.04 5K490» (By [HHO03 = 1150+ 134 ea 50-60 | 4000 tying ogaion (A with 3 ibanzeason OY cy x =aS 88003 ~750a+se490% — y|suoos =11508* 149” py Y= 180 5=36 1753-=-22406 (C)-()—AD)} 17532690 PI os ra Vii =1755 2249-0783 Yas of"P= 17 aca ca Replacing vale ob inequaton (A) | Repacing value of PAS 5 i000 x/1720 1150 = Oat 750 » 0,783 750 = 108% ee : therefore, 10=563.06 | Therefore, 108 Freon aay vase 0229 3162, 06 2) Correlation between “Age group” and “No. of | Regression cquation of Yon Xi ]Reusesion easton of Participants in trucking” (¥ taken as “Particip. X=a+bX xaarb ee seen Y= 563306 + 0.783 X x =0.058 + 0.65 Bxy 2000 is 100: =e eee a Likely sales when the purchase is Nae onan (Regression Line of ¥ on X is applicable) =2000___ -2000 Y = 56,306 + 0.783X oy et = 0.4127 iS x 100 = 134.56 31.62%153.23 4845 =56,306+0.783%100= 134.56 porto : ‘ Alternatively: Caleutation based on Direct To . 23. You are given data relating to purchases and ‘fier calculating the means of X and 2 sales.Obtain the two regression equations by the oe 2 750 10= 75; = 1150+ 10= Uh 8 a) y N= 10;X= 750+ 10= 75; ea method of least squaresand estimate the likely Regression Co-efficient (by and byy) calculated ust sales when the purchases equal 100. Direct Method Purchases [62] 72] 98] 76[ 87 | 56] 76] 92| 88] 9] || [Reesion Cntvion of Von | Repression Co-fficient of Xo Sales |12|124|131|117|132| 96|120|136] 97| 85 X= (bye) Yeo) vir NExy - GX) 4 NE ex Cy) 7 x Y re ve XY by = WEN? ~ (EX)? aN yy Ec 3eaq_| 12544 | 6944 Replacing the formula to get Regression Co-efficiont (byx and by [72 iq _sisa | 15376 | 8928 10 g8003 - 750 1150 ] 10% 88005 — 750 x 11 8 BI ‘3608 | 17161] 12838 | || |" ~10 x s8a90— 750? v= To x 134940 — 1150? 76 117] 3776 [13689 | 8892_| mores reece = 0.692 81 132] 6561 _|_17424 | 10602 Regression Line Equations [56 96 3136 | 9216 | _5376_| Regression Line of Y on X: Regression Line of X on Y 76 120 |_ 5776 | 14400 1-¥ a = Eee oa f z X-X= bay (¥-¥) 92 136 |__s4o4_|_18496 placing the values to ger R raat [9409 Ser get Regression equations maids) X=75= 0.652 (Y— Y=115 40.783 x ~ 58.725 : aa ; Pa X=75 + 0.652 Y ~ 74.94 X= 0.058 +-0,652 ¥(QUANTITATIVE TECHNIQUES FOR BUSINESSAI~ AUGUST 2022 “Alternatively: by, and by, are calculated on the basis of the actual means as 75 and 115 respectiv y [ix xy] cal even ee (& = 7 ¥ = 115) xy OK) (VV ) Obtain the straigg line trend: against cach year after estimation short-term fluctuations [wo ne is beings 0 Jorzoray x sia [ 2onn | 20ns| 2072] 20182 we| alate sled by deducting 2014 wat oni] zors| 2016 cal yuu sbX of the trend and | |} (se [se \ 1 [2010] 2 [aout | rs 798 eS | | He rend ine equation || | es yaathe | = 70 | Hb y= 68+ 7.05% | iv ay | sees) |] P24 2 | = 2690 1753, 8 [2017] _95 2 \ OCA on | Remession Cotsen oF X on | I] | 2 | 2018) 108 4 X= Y= 0y) N lsv-6i2] =x-0 612 | EON) OY) 2OCX) V-Y) - EES \| NE YF Tatimaton ofr values of the given years from 218 en | \L Yea+bX jueohY | | | pining he formula to get Repression Covent (bx and by) Value of X eofY | | ] 1753 CrigialX [Coded |_¥=6847.05X_| (= 65-7050 | by = HER = 0652 2010 4 398 |_b 260 | a 2011 3 “Alternatively: by_ and ba, are calculated on the basis of }| |" 2012 v= 68 (7.05 4-2) 339] Gssumed means as 7aand 100 respectivel 3013 y= 68 (7.051) O35 | lei ese eee eee 2014 OL Y= 68+ (7.050) S iI x70) | «X-100) 2015 To L¥=68+ (7.051) 7505 || mp 2 | 2 | @ | im | 96 2016 2 Y= 68 (7.052) 32.1 7m [za] 2 | 24 rast ESTOS | a 5017 FT y= 684 (7.053) 325 pa fas] ge fame an [eeerna | pape see, 2018 4 | Y=68+(7.05*4) 962 76. [u7| 6 17 [36 | 289 | 102. é er a 25. An insurance company insured 2000 scooter Hiei pa 19616 aa drivers, 4000 car drivers and 6000 truck drivers. fetal 6 TH The probabiliiy of accident is 0.01, 0.03 and 0.15 | respectively. One of the insured person meets with 92 | 136) 22 an accident. What is the probability that he is a ag [oof 8 scooter driver? 49 | ss | 2d x= | BY | 3K-8)= Fron] Postror]| TomiProbobiiy” [C Fan roby | Condon Prob 750 [1150] 50 sa Proebiliy|ProbabilinCaleltion aree|| TOTTO~ TF] | esl Boo an [oot fu =001=] 0002 | 0002-0087 = 009] Tiarson Coficent tyand beet wing Direct Method: || \Cu_[ 40x 033 | on3_Jasx00=[ Oo (0.010-0.087= 0.15] Ragasion Cosson: ofY o | Regression Co-tcien of X on | | [awk [com 05 }_ 150501 (2075 [0 075 =0087= 0866) X= (by Y= (by) ota_[12,000) 1.000 0087 = 1000] ye = Naty 9 OH) |, . NB i) 5) PA) PCA) _ (0.17001) Tmax aX)? Nzdv?— (ayy | PB) AT = 001) + (0.33 x 0.03) ¥ 05 * 0.15) session Coefficient (by. and By) 0.002 e formula to get Ree “10 104(2503) ~ (50150) 10 2490 50 = 0.783 50) 10 * 4940 — 150" 0.783 = far = 0.019 oF 1.9% ‘The probability that the insured persons met with an accident gooter driver is 1.9% 10 Marks)