AGILE ESTIMATION

• The Sydney Opera House was expected to complete in 4 years with a

budget of AUD 7 million. It took 14 years to complete and cost AUD
102 million. In short, the project experienced a delay of ten years and
went 1457% over budget.
• The Sydney opera house example shows how quickly projects can
get off track. If you don’t conduct accurate estimations, their
product will get delayed, and the competition will gain an
advantage.
• That’s why Agile estimation is essential. It can help you evaluate
the time and effort you need to complete work items in your product
backlog. It will further enhance sprint planning.
• However, it’s challenging to predict accurate estimates. How
would a company know the amount of time it will take to complete a
product backlog item in advance? How can they account for
unforeseen impediments that arise?
• That is where Agile estimation techniques come to the rescue.
They keep your project on track by helping you estimate your
project’s time, budget, and effort.
• Therefore, understanding agile story estimation techniques
should be a top priority for a business looking to develop a
new product.
A sprint is a short, time-boxed period when a
scrum team works to complete a set amount
of work.
• Sprint planning is a stage in Agile methodologies in which
teams decide which tasks to complete in an upcoming sprint
and how that work will be achieved. A sprint planning meeting
is a meeting that is dedicated to planning the next sprint.
• During the sprint planning meeting, product owners or Scrum
masters choose specific product backlog items that fit their
sprint goals. These decisions are made in collaboration with
the development team or the Scrum team so they know exactly
what work is upcoming in the next sprint. The developers on
the team can help identify specific skills they’re efficient at
and identify their bandwidth for the next sprint.
What is Estimation in Agile?

• Agile estimation estimates your effort to complete a prioritized

task in the product backlog. We measure it for the time it would
take to complete that task. As a result, you can plan sprints more
accurately.
• A sprint is a time-boxed interval that defines the time allocated
to complete a task.
• Agile project estimation also helps to build strong coordination. If
project X depends on project Y, agile project estimation provides an
overview of the wait time.
Why Run Agile Estimations?

• Agile estimates are essential for

• Making teams accountable for deliverables,
• Inducing discipline across the Agile team,
• Predicting the approximate time, it will take to finish a project,
• Enabling better sprint management,
• Improving team productivity.
Why do Teams Estimate in Agile?

• Overestimating and underestimating are both typical for Agile

software development companies. It leads to varying development and
launch times. Considering Agile estimation in the initial stages can
assist in accurate user story estimations. It helps the team stick to
the deliverables, and you don’t deflect.
• A user story is an informal, general explanation of a software
feature written from the perspective of the end user. Its
purpose is to articulate how a software feature will provide
value to the customer.
• A key component of agile software development is putting
people first, and a user story puts end users at the center of
the conversation. These stories use non-technical language
to provide context for the development team and their efforts.
After reading a user story, the team knows why they are
building, what they're building, and what value it creates.
• User stories are one of the core components of an agile
program. They help provide a user-focused framework for
daily work — which drives collaboration, creativity, and a
better product overall.
FORMAT
• “persona + need + purpose.”

• “As a [persona], I [want to], [so that].”

EXAMPLE

• User story examples for login

• As a user, I want an option to stay logged in, so that I don’t have to
enter my credentials every time.
• As a user, I want to be able to reset my password if I forget it, so that
I can regain access to my account.
• As a user, I want to see an error message if I enter incorrect login
details, so that I know when my login attempt has failed.
• User story examples for online shopping
• A smooth shopping experience starts with a well-crafted user story.
Here are three examples of online shoppers’ needs.

• As a customer, I want to track my order, so I can know when to

expect delivery.
• As an eco-conscious shopper, I want to see environmental impact
details for products, so I can make sustainable choices.
• As an online shopper, I want the ability to save products that I’m
interested in for later, so I don’t have to search for them again.
• Some of the to-the-point benefits of Agile Estimation
techniques include:
• 1. Improved Decision-Making
• With accurate, agile estimation, the development team can conduct
practical backlog grooming sessions, which further helps in precise
sprint planning. Their user story delivery time will improve when
they make informed decisions and plan well.
• 2. Better Coordination
• Let’s say the estimated effort for user story A is two weeks. On the
other hand, the estimation effort for user story B is four weeks. Now,
both user stories depend on each other and are connected. In that case,
the team needs to prioritize work so that both user stories get
completed simultaneously. It will lead to better coordination among
teams.
• 3. Better Risk Management
• Software projects often suffer from exceeding budgets and timelines.
To lessen this risk, Agile project estimation is an ideal solution. Agile
product estimation helps estimate story points and stick to
budgets, estimates, and the project’s scope—the more accurate
the estimates, the better the chances of on-time, quality
delivery.
Stages of Agile Estimation: The Short Discovery
Phase
• When a project starts, the horizon is limited. Hence, it is wise to
implement a short product discovery phase to tide over this
problem. The discovery phase establishes the essential tenet of Agile
development methodology, breaking down the requirements into
small batch sizes. It is an exercise that typically takes two to four
weeks, depending on the project’s complexity.
• 1. Conduct Stakeholder Interviews
• The Business Analyst (BA) assigned to the discovery team initially
revisits any existing documentation shared and extracts the gaps
and queries. The BA then conducts regular workshops with the
stakeholders to discuss the gaps and clarify doubts in the system
workflow.
• Based on these workshops, the BA comes up with the business and
functional requirements:
• Business Requirements Document (BRD): defines the end goal
of the project
• Functional Requirements Document (FRD): describes the
features required to achieve the end-goal
• These workshops can be conducted over a call with the client or
when they visit the premises to have one-on-one sessions.
• 2. Define High-Level Product Backlog
• The next step of Agile Estimation involves the BA and the
Technical Architect. They frame an initial outcome that the
stakeholders are looking for with a feasible solution or product.
• A high-level product backlog is defined in terms of epics and story
titles, which describe the bare bones of the application. They then
validate if the backlog addresses the project’s scope for the client.
• 3. Understand the Client and its Potential Customers
• Depending upon the complexity of the problem that the application is
intended to solve, a UX design anchor is taken on board along with
the BA for the discovery phase. The UX analyst’s prime deliverable is
to understand the client and their potential customers.
• The UX analyst works on the personas of the possible user group who
might use the application, the ecosystem in which the personas will be
using it, and the touchpoints of the user personas within the system.
The deliverables would include ecosystem maps, personas, user
journeys, and storyboards.
• 4. Prioritize Requirements
• The discovery team becomes involved in the agile cost estimation
project and works on the high-level backlog after the stakeholder has
validated it.
• The analysis is employed with the prioritization method to decide
which requirements to complete first, which ones can come
later, and which ones to exclude. The backlog items are divided
based on the MoSCoW method, which segments features based on
must-haves, should-haves, could-haves & won’t-haves
• 5. Prepare the Minimum Viable Product (MVP) Backlog
(capable of working, functioning)
• Based on the prioritization activity, the BA assembles the
requirements as ‘must-haves’ to the backlog and sections them as the
requirements for MVP Development. The MVP backlog might also
contain a few items from the ‘should haves’ list, ensuring that the
product is sufficiently competitive in the market.
• In some instances, depending on the budget and time to market, this
step is skipped, and the agile teams jump directly to developing the
fully-fledged product.
• 6. Estimate the Project Cost and Timeline
• The discovery team estimates the MVP backlog to define the
estimated cost and timeline for the first release. This is followed
by build, rinse, and repeat until they arrive at an estimate that
fits the business needs. This also allows flexibility to load and
offload features as product development starts.
• Steps to Successful Story Point Estimation in Agile
• The story points approach in the Agile estimation technique uses historical
data to compare features of previous, similar projects to generate a
precise estimate. The steps involved in the estimation method with story
points are as follows:
• Identify user stories
• Discuss the requirements of the user story. It is the responsibility of the
Product Owner or business analyst to answer the questions and explain what
precisely the referred story entails.
• Create a matrix for estimation. The estimation matrix is a numeric scale
used to evaluate the selected pieces of work. This scale can be the Fibonacci
sequence 5, 8, 13, 21, 34) or the straightforward linear scale (3, 4, 5, 6, 7..).
• Choose an Agile estimation technique.
• Conduct sprint planning
• Validate that the estimates are internally consistent and align with the
stories as the process goes along.
• What is Sprint Velocity?
• Sprint velocity measures an individual team’s rate of work during an
average sprint.
• How to Estimate Sprint Velocity
• Sprint velocity is the number of story points that can be
completed during a sprint by a specific team. Unfortunately,
there is no concrete way to determine sprint velocity until the first
sprint has been finished.
• However, the future velocity can be predicted by analyzing the
team’s historical data (i.e., keeping track of how many story points
were completed in a previous sprint). The total number of
completed story points and measuring the team’s actual
velocity during a sprint can be used as a reasonable data
count. This will help to determine how many sprint cycles will
be required to complete the project.
What are the Best Methods for the Estimation of
Software Projects?
• 1. Planning Poker
• Number-coded playing cards are used to estimate an item. The
cards are distributed across the team (sized 2-10), with each of the
cards representing a valid estimate. The reading on the cards can be
a number between 0 to 100. Now, the product owner or the analyst
describes the user story to the team, who can ask any related
queries.
• Each team member secretly selects a card number for an estimate,
revealed when all the cards are turned over. The card with the most
voting is the finalized estimate for the item under discussion.
In case of rough estimates, meetings are held, and the next round of
voting commences to come up with an estimate everyone agrees with.
• Planning Poker use cases
• There are a small number of items.
• Establishing mutual understanding among team members
• Running late-stage estimations
• The backlogs are highly prioritized
• 2. Analogy
• With estimation by analogy in Agile, story sizes are compared with other stories.
This relative sizing approach is helpful when making assumptions relevant to
agile estimations.
• For instance, a company already estimated user story A for two weeks.
Now, if they come across a user story B that is twice as large as user story
A, they will assign it a larger estimation number.
• For effective Agile estimation using the analogy, the triangulation method is
widely used. According to the triangulation method, the user story is
estimated against similar intent user stories that have already been
estimated.
• For example, if the story is bigger than the story estimated at six-story points and
smaller than the story estimated at 10 — estimating it at eight will be a good
strategy.
• Analogy use cases
• If retrospectives are a part of the process
• Among teams that have an excellent mutual understanding
• Among highly experienced teams
• 3. T-Shirt Size Estimation
• In this t-shirt sizing Agile estimation technique, the items are
estimated in standard t-shirt sizes (i.e., XS, S, M, L, and XL).
This is more of an informal but creative technique, and numbers can
be assigned to each user story and categorized under different t-shirt
sizes for better understanding.

• A story estimated as XS is usually small and requires less effort

than the XL story, which is large and has a big estimation
number.
• T-Shirt size estimation use cases
• Running rough estimations
• The team is new to Agile estimation
• There are large backlogs
• Running early-stage estimations
• 4. Dot Voting
• Dot voting is a useful Agile estimation technique that works well for
a small number of user stories. It is easy to implement and is
effective as well. Here, all user stories (including descriptions) are
written on post-its and placed on the wall or the board to receive votes
from the team. They are given four to five dots in the form of stickers
(pens or markers may also be used to create dots), which they can use
to vote for the user stories of their choice.
• Dot Voting use cases
• Well-established teams
• Managing large backlogs
• Estimating a smaller number of items
• 5. Affinity Mapping
• The affinity estimation technique in Agile can be applied when there
are fewer backlog items and small team size. Affinity mapping
involves the following steps:
• a) Silent Relative Sizing
• In this step, two cards are placed on a wall or a board opposite corners
(one is named Smaller and the other Larger). Next, all the participants
receive a subset item from the product owner and are asked to size
each item individually.
• Here, participants can ask the product owner clarifying questions. In
the case of complicated product backlog items, they are taken off the
fold and placed separately. This drill consumes five to twenty minutes.
• b) Editing the Wall
• In step 2, items can be moved from one location to another based on
team members’ discretion. Team members can also discuss the design
and implementation aspect, given the allotted twenty to sixty minutes.
In the case of minimal discussion, the team members can close the
activity.
• c) Placement of Items in the Correct Locations
• In this step, team members place the items in suitable positions, and
post discussions. Here, the t-shirt Agile sizing technique, Fibonacci
series, etc., can be used to estimate the relative item size.
• d) Product Owner’s Prerogative
• Product owners use this step to communicate estimation
discrepancy, discuss features, or convey requirements to team
members. It is essential because addressing all these things prior to
final estimations avoids confusion.
• e) Export to Project Backlog Management Tool
• In this final step, the product owner can save the finalized estimations
by exporting them to a product backlog management tool.
• Affinity Mapping use cases
• Estimating a long-term plan for a project
• Gaining mutual understanding in the team
• There are large backlogs to handle
• Running early-stage estimations
• 6. The Bucket System Estimation
• This Agile estimation technique can be incorporated when estimating
many items (50-500) and is better than planning poker. Here,
different buckets (cards) are placed sequentially with values ranging
from 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 8, 13, 20, 30, 50, 100, and 200 (and more, if
required). Next, according to the estimators’ discretion, the user stories
(items) are placed within the buckets.
• First, pick a random item and place it under a different bucket. Next,
choose another user story, discuss all its features and requirements
within the group, and put it in the bucket that suits the team’s
understanding. Follow the same drill throughout.
• Bucket system use cases
• Estimating a large number of items
• Enabling quick estimations
• The team is new to Agile estimation
• Estimating long-term project
• 7. Three-Point Method
• This method loops in the best-case scenario, the worst-case scenario,
and the most likely scenario. The average of all these estimates is then
calculated to give us the final estimate. In this method, the team needs to
measure time/effort based on the following parameters:
• Optimistic Value (O): How much time/effort will it take if everything is on
track?
• Pessimist Value (P): How much time/effort will it take if things fall apart
or there are impediments on the way?
• Most Likely Value (M): What is the most likely and practical estimate to
complete the task?
• Three-Point Method use cases
• The team is new to Agile estimation
• Running later-stage estimations
• There are highly prioritized backlogs
• Calculate the average using either of the following methods:
• 8. Fibonacci Sequence for Story Point Estimation
• The fibonacci sequence is a popular scoring scale within some teams. This
sequence is the sum of the previous two numbers in the series. For example,
0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, etc. In contrast, the linear sequence is 1,
2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, etc.
• This comes with its benefits. While looking at a story and determining
whether it’s a 5, 8, or 13, it’s quicker and easier to land an answer
than to come up with the correct number between, say, 4-15. The
team is likely to reach a consensus much more quickly. The team will
have to discuss the work and choose the best estimate from a limited set of
options.
• The options, however, can still be limited. For example, a story could be
estimated as having more effort than 34 but less than 55. In
instances like these, this scale has chance of being less accurate.
• Fibonacci Sequence use cases
• When estimating for large and complex tasks
• If the need is to prevent estimates from getting too close to each
other
Five best practices for improved agile estimation
• 1. Start with smaller stories before tackling epics
• Estimating smaller stories is much easier than estimating large epics. Hence,
pick the low-hanging fruit first and start by focusing on small stories. It
would help your team familiarize with the estimating process and improve
your chances of creating accurate, agile estimates.
• 2. Break down epics if they’re too big to tackle
• You can also break epics if you find them too difficult to tackle. This way,
you can easily create accurate estimates. Smaller epics also help you plan
your sprints much better.
• 3. Follow an iterative approach to agile estimation
• You can easily estimate traditional projects 2-3 times. However, agile
estimation doesn’t work in the same way. In its case, it’s much wiser to
follow an interactive approach and review software development
estimates at each sprint. This way, teams can better understand the
estimation process and easily break epics into smaller ones.
• 4. Be a team player
• Agile estimation is a team sport that requires active communication
and collaboration. You can better predict the time and effort needed
to complete a project when everyone from your team is involved. It also
encourages active participation within your team, as everyone feels
responsible for their work.
• It’s also wise to involve subject matter experts in the agile estimation
process. They can better consult and guide your team to give the best
estimates.
• 5. Don’t forget to look at the historical data
• Historical or industrial data plays a crucial role in agile estimation. Project
approaches change, and new methods emerge. Still, the decades-old studies
remain relevant and guide you in the tough times.
• So, make sure you refer to them during project estimation. You may get a
new, radical idea to better plan your agile project estimates.
How to Estimate a Web Application
Development Project?
• Do you offer web development services?
• If that is the case, then you are aware of the challenges faced when trying to
keep a project in scope.
• A good number of web developers price projects based on the specs initially
provided by the client. Unfortunately, most clients do not understand what
they need/ want until after you have scoped the project.
• This leads to many web development companies engaging in unhealthy
arguments with clients so that they can pay for additional features and
functionality of the website.
• Once you complete reading this article, you will not have problems with
how to estimate a web application project.
• Why Estimating The Cost of a Website Development Project is Tough
for Even Experienced Web Designers
• Customers ask for more revisions than scoped since they keep looking at the
website for more ideas
• Some customers think that it is easy to incorporate anything they see on
other sites on their websites
• A few customers think that they do not require further support once they
launch the project. This makes them to disagree with the web designer when
it comes to paying upfront for the same.
• Some customers do not agree with what goes into designing a website. The
lack of knowledge makes them to think that the process is simple, which is
not the case.
• Customers do not visualize the site they want prior to its development.
Therefore, they keep changing their needs throughout the entire project
making it even harder for the web designer to work within the initial budget.
• Important Positions Required
• Web development is not like an evening walk at the park with your
spouse. The process requires collaboration of different professionals,
with each of them playing a different role. Some of the most important
positions include
• Project manager
• The project manager helps in managing the project by coordinating the
entire team. He comes up with the budget for the project by
establishing the required resources, delivery time as well as cost.
• Development team
• Depending on the size and complexity of the web development project, the team
can include the following positions
• Web concept designer – gives the shape of the project right from the initial idea,
communication strategies and objective.
• Web designer – Takes care of the layout of the entire project. He/she cures the
look, user interface, main navigation tree and colors just to mention a few of them.
• Graphic designer – the expert takes charge of the overall graphics of the website
including the page layout.
• Web developer – Structures various web pages by transferring the web designer’s
ideas into the page using a series of codes including XHTML, CSS, PHP, JSP and
SQL among others.
• Marketing team – In charge of marketing the website and ensuring that it has
enough number of visitors.
• Contents team – This team uses the notes from clients that create a language that
will facilitate the process of designing the website.
• How to Make Estimating Website Development Projects Easier?
• Despite the complexity of the process, you can simplify things by
doing the following before you start the project.
• Come up with a standard list of questions for the project
• Having a list of questions that you can send to the client will assist you
to find answers to important elements of the project. The questions
will also make the person who wants to create the website to think
about the project upfront. You can refer to the answers throughout the
project if you find the need to do so. Some of the important questions
that you can ask include:
• Do you an internal IT expert who can help you update your site? Who will provide
you with web hosting services?
• What is the dateline of your project?
• Who will help you to create the website design, content, and architecture?
• Meet The Client Physically
• Meeting the decision-makers of the project is very important. It is good to know each other
before you embark on the project. Web development will be easy if you have a good
relationship with all the decision-makers of the project. Finding time to build a relationship
with the decision-makers will give you an easy time when it comes to solving some of the
problems that come along the way.
• Create An Initial Proposal for The Project
• Use the information provided by the client, match with their recommendations and create
assumptions then price each of them before embarking on the process of creating the
website. Some of the areas that you can give much attention include
• Design, content, and architecture
• SEO
• Hosting
• Post Launch support
• Website build
• The proposal will help the client to understand some of the important steps undertaken
during project development. Do take long without walking the customer through the
proposal.
• Set Expectations for Your Client
• During your meeting with the client, you have to set your expectations. You can do this by
explaining all the important areas of the proposal. Outline what they include so that the client knows
what you want from him or her.
• Complete The Web Development Proposal
• Take everything discussed in the previous meeting you had with the client and finalize the project. In
case the client will provide the content for the project, ensure that you include the same in your
proposal so that you do not perform double work. Take your time and think through the project
before finalizing the proposal. Once you do so, things will be very simple on your side the moment
you begin the project at hand.
• Conclusion
• There are Things That You Should Consider When Coming Up with A Web Development Project
• Project objectives- what you need to do (in this case, developing a website)
• Stages involved- how to do it (steps required to complete the project and their details)
• Skills needed for the project- professionals you need to hire for the project
• Division of work- who should take care of what and why
• Project schedule- how long will the project take
• Budgeting- calculate the cost of the project basing on the resources and deadline provided
ESTIMATION FOR OO PROJECTS