Contents

1 Probability 2
1.1 Permutations and Combinations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2
1.1.1 Fundamental principle of counting . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2
1.1.2 Permutations of distinct objects . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2
1.1.3 Permutations of objects including identical objects . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2
1.1.4 Permutations of selected number of objects . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
1.1.5 Combinations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
1.2 Theory of Probability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
1.2.1 Definitions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
1.2.2 Axioms of Probability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
1.2.3 Assigning Probabilities to Events . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
1.2.4 Conditional Probability and Multiplication Rule . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
1.2.5 Independent Events . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
1.3 Theorem of Total Probability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
1.4 Bayes’ Theorem . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
1.5 A note on probability and statistics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
1.6 Misc. Practice Problems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16

1
Chapter 1

Probability

Note: These lecture notes aim to present a clear and crisp presentation of some topics in Probability and
Statistics. Comments/suggestions are welcome on the e-mail: [email protected] to Dr. Suresh Kumar.

1.1 Permutations and Combinations

1.1.1 Fundamental principle of counting
If an operation can be performed in n1 ways, and if for each of these ways a second operation can be
performed in n2 ways, then the two operations can be performed together in n1 n2 ways.

Ex. A person having 2 pants and 3 shirts can dress in 2 × 3 = 6 different ways.

Note that the fundamental principle of counting or the multiplication rule may be extended to cover
any number of operations.

Ex. If a person has 2 pants, 3 shirts and 2 ties, then number of different dresses of the person is
2 × 3 × 2 = 12.

1.1.2 Permutations of distinct objects

Any ordered arrangement of objects is called a permutation of the objects.

Ex. ABC and BCA are two permutations of the three letters of A, B and C.

Now let us determine the number of permutations of n distinct objects. In the ordered arrangement of
n objects, the first place can be filled by any of the n objects, that is, n ways; second can be filled in n − 1
ways and so on, finally the nth place can be filled in 1 way. So by the fundamental principle of counting,
n distinct objects can be arranged in n(n − 1)(n − 2)......(3)(2)(1) ways. So number of permutations of n
distinct objects is n!.

Ex. The number of permutations of the three letters A, B and C is 3! = 6, while the permutations are
ABC, BCA, CAB, ACB, BAC and CBA.

1.1.3 Permutations of objects including identical objects

Let N be the number of permutations of n objects including m identical objects. If we treat the m iden-
tical objects as distinct objects just like the remaining n − m objects, then by the fundamental principle

2
of counting, the number of permutations of the n objects is N × m!. But the number of permutations of
n!
n distinct objects is n!. So we must have N × m! = n!. It gives N = .
m!
3!
Ex. Number of permutations of the letters A, A and B is = 3, and the permutations are AAB, ABA
2!
and BAA.

Likewise, number of permutations of n objects including m1 identical objects of one type, m2 identical
n!
objects of second type, and so on, mk identical objects of kth type, is .
m1 !m2 ! · · · mk !
10!
Ex. Number of different words formed by using the letters of the word STATISTICS is . Here S
3!3!2!
and T repeat 3 times and I repeats 2 times.

1.1.4 Permutations of selected number of objects

Let us determine the number of permutations of r objects chosen from n objects. Here we need to
determine ordered arrangements with r places by using any of the n objects. So the first place can be
filled in n ways; second place in n−1 ways, and so on, the rth place in n−(r −1) ways. So by fundamental
principle of counting, the total number of permutations is

n(n − 1) · · · (n − r + 1)(n − r)! n!

n(n − 1) · · · (n − r + 1) = = .
(n − r)! (n − r)!

It is denoted by nPr . Thus the number of permutations of r objects chosen from n objects is given by

n n!
Pr = .
(n − r)!

Ex. Number of 2 digit numbers (without non-repeated digits) formed by using the digits 1, 5 and 7 is
3P = 3!
2 = 6, and the 2 digit numbers are 15, 51, 57, 75, 17 and 71.
(3 − 2)!

1.1.5 Combinations
In many problems, we are interested in the number of ways of selecting r objects from n objects without
regard to order or the r objects are of same kind in the sense of permutations. These selections are called
combinations. The number of combinations from n objects taking r objects at a time is denoted by nCr
n


or r , and is given by
nP
 
n n r n!
Cr = = = .
r r! (n − r)! r!

5!
Ex. The number of ways of selection of 2 players from a group of 5 players is = 10.
(5 − 2)! 2!

3
 Figure 1.1: Head (left) and Tail (right) of a coin.

Figure 1.2: Six faced die.

Figure 1.3: 52 cards of a deck: The four rows are the four suits. The clubs are all in the first row, followed
by the spades, then the hearts, and last the diamonds. Among the 13 kinds, we find the numbers 2
through 10, and four other kinds. The A stands for ace, the J for jack, the Q for queen, and the K for
king. The jack, queen, and king are often referred to as face cards.

4
1.2 Theory of Probability
1.2.1 Definitions
Random Experiment
An experiment whose outcome or result is random, that is, is not known before the experiment, is called
random experiment. eg.
(i) Tossing a fair coin
(ii) Rolling a fair die
(iii) Drawing a card from a well-shuffled pack of cards
all are random experiments.

Sample Space
Set of all possible outcomes is called sample space of the random experiment and is usually denoted by
S.

Ex. When a fair coin is tossed or flipped, it either shows the head H or the tail T . So sample space of
this experiment is
S = {H, T }.
Ex. The sample space of a random experiment of toss of two fair coins is
S = {HH, HT, T H, T T }.
Ex. Consider the experiment of rolling a die. If we are interested in the number that shows on the top
face, the sample space is
S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}.
Ex. The sample space of random experiment of rolling of two dice carries 36 outcomes, given by
S = {(1, 1), (1, 2), · · · , (5, 6), (6, 6)}.
In some experiments, it is helpful to list the elements of the sample space systematically by means of
a tree diagram.

Ex. An experiment consists of flipping a coin and then flipping it a second time if a head occurs. If a
tail occurs on the first flip, then a die is rolled once. To list the elements of the sample space providing
the most information, we construct the tree diagram in Figure 1.4. By proceeding along all paths, we see
that the sample space is
S = {HH, HT, T 1, T 2, T 3, T 4, T 5, T 6}.
Ex. Suppose that three items are selected at random from a manufacturing process. Each item is inspected
and classified defective, D, or nondefective, N . To list the elements of the sample space providing the
most information, we construct the tree diagram of Figure 1.5.
By proceeding along all paths, we see that the sample space is
S = {DDD, DDN, DN D, DN N, N DD, N DN, N N D, N N N }.
Ex. Consider a random experiment which consists of a series of tosses of a fair coin till the head appears.
The head may turn up in the first toss or the second toss and so forth. Thus, the sample space is infinite
and can be written as
S = {H, T H, T T H, T T T H, · · · }.

5
 H T

H T 1 2 3 4 5 6

Figure 1.4: Exploring all the paths in the tree diagram, the sample points are
HH, HT, T 1, T 2, T 3, T 4, T 5, T 6

D N

D N D N

D N D N D N D N

Figure 1.5: Exploring all the paths in the tree diagram, the sample points are
DDD, DDN, DN D, DN N, N DD, N DN, N N D, N N N

Events
Any subset of sample space is called an event.

Ex. If S = {H, T }, then the sets ϕ, {H}, {T } and {H, T } all are events.

The event ϕ is called impossible event as it does not happen. The event {H, T } is called sure event
as we certainly get either head or tail in the toss of a fair coin.

Elementary and Compound Events

Singleton subsets of sample space S are called elementary events. The subsets of S containing more
than one element are known as compound events.

Ex. The singleton sets {H} and {T } are elementary events while {H, T } is a compound event.

Equally Likely Events

The elementary events of a sample space are said to be equally likely if each one of them has same chance
of occurring.

Ex. The elementary events {H} and {T } in the sample space of the toss of a fair coin are equally likely

6
because both have same chance of occurring.

Ex. The events {1, 3, 5} and {2, 4, 6} in the sample space of the roll of a fair die are equally likely.

Mutually Exclusive
Two events are said to be mutually exclusive If happening of one event precludes the happening of the
other.

Ex. The events {H} and {T } in the sample space of the toss of a fair coin are mutually exclusive because
both can not occur together.

Similarly, more than two events say A1 , A2 ,· · · ,An are mutually exclusive if any two of these can not
occur together, that is, Ai ∩ Aj = ϕ for i ̸= j, where i, j ∈ {1, 2, · · · , n}.

Exhaustive Events
The events in a sample space are exhaustive if their union is equal to the sample space.

Ex. The events {H} and {T } in the sample space of the toss of a fair coin are mutually exclusive and
exhaustive.

Combination of Events
If A and B are any two events in a sample space S, then the event A ∪ B implies either A or B or both;
A ∩ B implies both A and B; A − B implies A but not B; A′ implies not A, that is, A′ = S − A.

Ex. Let S be sample space in a roll of a fair die. Then S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}. Let A be the event of
getting an even number and B be the event of getting a number greater than 3. Then A = {2, 4, 6} and
B = {4, 5, 6}. So A ∪ B = {2, 4, 5, 6}, A ∩ B = {4}, A − B = {2} and A′ = {1, 3, 5}.

1.2.2 Axioms of Probability

(i) The probability of any event A, denoted by P (A), is to be assigned a number in the closed interval
[0, 1], that is, 0 ≤ P (A) ≤ 1.

(ii) P (ϕ) = 0 and P (S) = 1.

(iii) If A and B are mutually exclusive or disjoint events, then P (A ∪ B) = P (A) + P (B).

These are known as axioms1 of the theory of probability. The axiom (iii) may be assumed for arbitrary
union of disjoint sets.

Deductions:
One may easily deduce the following results from the above axioms:
1
Axioms are mathematical statements or assumptions without proof, which form the basis of the logical development of
a theory.

7
 (i) If A and B are any two events, then
P (A ∪ B) = P (A) + P (B) − P (A ∩ B). This is called law of addition of probabilities.
Proof: We write A = (A − B) ∪ (A ∩ B), the union of two disjoint sets. So by axiom (iii), we have
P (A) = P (A−B)+P (A∩B) or P (A−B) = P (A)−P (A∩B). Also, we can write A∪B = (A−B)∪B,
the union of two disjoint sets. So we have
P (A ∪ B) = P (A − B) + P (B) = P (A) − P (A ∩ B) + P (B).
Likewise, for three events A, B and C, we may deduce the addition rule given by

P (A ∪ B ∪ C) = P (A) + P (B) + P (C) − P (A ∩ B) − P (B ∩ C − P (C ∩ A) + P (A ∩ B ∩ C).

(ii) P (A′ ) = 1−P (A). It follows from the fact that A and A′ are disjoint and A∪A′ = S with P (S) = 1.

(iii) If A is subset of B, then P (A) ≤ P (B). For, A being subset of B, the sets B − A and A are disjoint
with B = (B − A) ∪ A. It follows that
P (B) − P (A) = P ((B − A) ∪ A) − P (A) = P (B − A) + P (A) − P (A) = P (B − A) ≥ 0.

1.2.3 Assigning Probabilities to Events

The probabilities to the events in sample space are assigned logically. In the following, we discuss two
approaches.

Relative Frequency Approach

In relative frequency approach, we assign the probability to an event on the basis of its frequency in the
repeated random experiment. If an event A occurs m times in n trials, then the probability of A based
on the frequency of A is defined as P (A) = m
n.

Ex. If we toss a coin 10 times, and head appears 7 times, then the probability of getting head in the 11th
7
toss is 10 .

Classical Approach
In classical approach, we assign equal weight or probability to the equally likely outcomes. Let S =
{a1 , a2 , · · · , am } be sample space of a random experiment, where the m outcomes a1 , a2 , ..., am are equally
likely. In the classical approach, we assign equal probability w to each outcome or elementary event. Since
1
S is the union of the mutually exclusive m elementary events, so P (S) = 1 implies mw = 1 or w = m . If
A is any event with k elements in S, then A is the union of k elementary events. So probability of A is
given by

k Numer of elements in A n(A)

P (A) = kw = = = .
m Number of elements in S n(S)

Ex. Find the probability of getting exactly two heads in toss of two fair coins?
Sol. If S is sample space for toss of two fair coins, then S = {HH, HT, T H, T T }. The coins being fair,
here all the four outcomes are equally likely. Let A be the event of getting two heads. Then A = {HH},
and therefore P (A) = 14 .

Ex. A die is loaded in such a way that an even number is twice as likely to occur as an odd number. If
E is the event that a number less than 4 occurs on a single toss of the die, find P (E).
Sol. The sample space is S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}. We assign a probability of w to each odd number and a
probability of 2w to each even number. Since the sum of the probabilities must be 1, we have 9w = 1 or
w = 19 . Hence, probabilities of 91 and 29 are assigned to each odd and even number, respectively. Therefore,

8
 1 2 1
E = {1, 2, 3} and P (E) = 9 + 9 + 9 = 94 .

Ex. From a pack of well shuffled cards, one card is drawn. Find the probability that the card is either a
king or an ace.
Sol. Here n(S) = 52. Let A be event of drawing a king and B the event of drawing an ace. Then
n(A) = 4 and n(B) = 4. The two events are mutually exclusive. So the required probability is given by
4 4 2
P (A ∪ B) = P (A) + P (B) = + = .
52 52 13
Ex. From a pack of well shuffled cards, one card is drawn. Find the probability that the card is either a
king or a red card.
Sol. Here n(S) = 52. Let A be event of drawing a king and B the event of drawing a red card. Then
n(A) = 4 and n(B) = 26. The two events are not mutually exclusive since two kings are red. So
n(A ∩ B) = 2. So the required probability is given by
4 26 2 28 7
P (A ∪ B) = P (A) + P (B) − P (A ∩ B) = + − = = .
52 52 52 52 13
Ex. From a pack of well shuffled cards, one card is drawn. Find the probability that the card is either a
king or a red card or a diamond card.
Sol. Here n(S) = 52. Let A be event of drawing a king, B the event of drawing a red card, and C the
event of drawing a diamond card. Then n(A) = 4, n(B) = 26 and n(C) = 13. Also, we have n(A∩B) = 2,
n(B ∩ C) = 13, n(C ∩ A) = 1, and n(A ∩ B ∩ C) = 1. So the required probability is given by

P (A ∪ B ∪ C) = P (A) + P (B) + P (C) − P (A ∩ B) − P (B ∩ C − P (C ∩ A) + P (A ∩ B ∩ C)

4 26 13 2 13 1 1 7
= + + − − − + = .
52 52 52 52 52 52 52 13

1.2.4 Conditional Probability and Multiplication Rule

Suppose it is given that an event A has occurred. Then probability of an event B subject to the given
information of event A is called conditional probability of B, and is denoted by P (B|A).
The event A has already occurred. So, more the overlapping of B with A, more is the value of P (B|A).
Therefore, P (B|A) ∝ P (A ∩ B) or P (B|A) = kP (A ∩ B), k being some proportionality constant. Since
P (A ∩ B)
P (A|A) = 1, so 1 = kP (A) and hence P (B|A) = . Thus, formally the conditional probability
P (A)
is defined as follows.
For any two events A and B with P (A) > 0, the conditional probability of B given that A has
occurred, is defined by
P (A ∩ B)
P (B|A) = .
P (A)
Thus, if two events A and B happen in succession, then the probability of happening of A and B is
given by

P (A ∩ B) = P (A)P (B|A).

This is known as multiplication rule2 of probabilities, and is simply the consequence of conditional prob-
ability rule. This rule can be extended to the case of three or more events happening in succession. For
2
Some authors, first define the multiplication rule, P (A∩B) = P (A)P (B|A), of probability, and then infer the conditional
P (A ∩ B)
probability formula from it, that is, P (B|A) = . Both ways, it is fine. After all, probability is a number that we
P (A)
need to assign to an event in a logical manner.

9
example, the probability of happening of three events A, B and C in succession is given by
P (A ∩ B ∩ C) = P (A)P (B|A)P (C|A ∩ B).
Here P (A) is the probability of happening of the first event A; P (B|A) is the probability of happening
of the second event B given that the first event A has occurred, and P (C|A ∩ B) is the probability of
happening of the third event C given that the first event A and second event B have occurred.

Ex. Two cards are drawn one after the other from a pack of well-shuffled 52 cards without replacing the
first card. Find the probability that both are spade cards.
Sol. Let A be the event that the first drawn card is spade, and B be the event that the second drawn
13
card is spade. Then P (A) = 52 and P (B|A) = 12
51 . So probability that both are spade cards is given by
P (A ∩ B) = P (A)P (B|A) = 13 52 × 12
51 .

Ex. Two cards are drawn one after the other from a pack of well-shuffled 52 cards without replacing the
first card. Find the probability that second card is a spade given that the first card is a spade.
Sol. Let A be the event that the first drawn card is spade, and B be the event that the second drawn
card is spade. Then P (A) = 13 12 4 13
52 and P (B|A) = 51 = 17 . Notice that P (A ∩ B) = 52 × 51 . So
12

P (A ∩ B) 12 4
P (B|A) = = 51 = 17 .
P (A)
Ex. One bag contains 4 white balls and 3 black balls, and a second bag contains 3 white balls and 5 black
balls. One ball is drawn from the first bag and placed unseen in the second bag. What is the probability
that a ball now drawn from the second bag is black?
Sol. Let B1 , B2 , and W1 represent, respectively, the drawing of a black ball from bag 1, a black ball from
bag 2, and a white ball from bag 1. Then B1 ∩ B2 represents the event that a black ball is transferred
from bag 1 to the bag 2, and then a black ball is drawn from the bag 2. Likewise, W1 ∩ B2 represents the
event that a white ball is transferred from bag 1 to the bag 2, and then a black ball is drawn from the
bag 2. So we are interested in the union of the mutually exclusive events B1 ∩ B2 and W1 ∩ B2 . It follows
that

P ((B1 ∩ B2 ) ∪ (W1 ∩ B2 )) = P (B1 ∩ B2 ) + P (W1 ∩ B2 )

= P (B1 )P (B2 |B1 ) + P (W1 )P (W1 |B2 )
= 37 × 96 + 47 × 95 = 38
63 .

Ex. Three bags carry (2 white and 3 black balls), (4 white and 5 black balls), and (6 white and 7 black
balls), respectively. Find the probability of drawing a black ball from the third bag given that without
noticing, a ball is transferred from first bag to the second bag, and then a ball is transferred from second
bag to the third bag.
Sol. Let W1 , B1 , W2 , B2 and B3 be the events of drawing a while ball from first bag, a black ball from
first bag, a while ball from second bag, a black ball from second bag and a black ball from the third bag
respectively. Then the required probability is

= P (W1 ∩ W2 ∩ B3 ) + P (W1 ∩ B2 ∩ B3 ) + P (B1 ∩ W2 ∩ B3 ) + P (B1 ∩ B2 ∩ B3 )

= P (W1 )P (W2 |W1 )P (B3 |W1 ∩ W2 ) + P (W1 )P (B2 |W1 )P (B3 |W1 ∩ B2 )
+P (B1 )P (W2 |B1 )P (B3 |B1 ∩ W2 ) + P (B1 )P (B2 |B1 )P (B3 |B1 ∩ B2 )
= 25 × 10
5 7
× 14 + 25 × 10
5 8
× 14 + 35 × 10
4 7
× 14 + 53 × 10
6 8
× 14
= 378
700 = 0.54.

Ex. Three cards are drawn in succession, without replacement, from an ordinary deck of playing cards.
Find the probability that the first card is a red ace, the second card is a 10 or a jack, and the third card
is greater than 3 but less than 7.

10
Sol. First we define the events.
A : the first card is a red ace,
B : the second card is a 10 or a jack,
C : the third card is greater than 3 but less than 7.
2 8
∴ P (A) = 52 , P (B|A) = 51 , P (C|(A ∩ B)) = 12
50 . Thus the required probability is
2 8 12 8
P (A ∩ B ∩ C) = P (A)P (B|A)P (C|(A ∩ B)) = 52 × 51 × 50 = 5525 .

1.2.5 Independent Events

Two events A and B are said to be independent if occurrence or non-occurrence of A does not affect the
occurrence or non-occurrence of the other. Thus, if A and B are independent, then P (A|B) = P (A). So
P (A ∩ B) = P (A)P (B) is the mathematical condition for the independence of the events A and B.

Note that three events A, B, C are independent provided these are pairwise independent and
P (A ∩ B ∩ C) = P (A)P (B)P (C).

Ex. Two cards are drawn one after the other from a pack of well-shuffled 52 cards. Find the probability
that both are spade cards if the first card is replaced.
Sol. Let A be the event that the first drawn card is spade, and B be the event that the second drawn card
13
is spade. So P (A) = 52 , and P (B) = 13 13 13 1
52 . So required probability is P (A ∩ B) = P (A)P (B) = 52 52 = 16 .

Ex. If A and B are independent events, then show that

(i) A and B ′ are independent events.
(ii) A′ and B ′ are independent events.

Sol. We need to prove P (A ∩ B ′ ) = P (A)P (B ′ ). We have

A = A ∩ S = A ∩ (B ∪ B ′ ) = (A ∩ B) ∪ (A ∩ B ′ ),
where A ∩ B and A ∩ B ′ are mutually exclusive events. So by addition rule of probability,

P (A) = P ((A ∩ B) ∪ (A ∩ B ′ )) = P (A ∩ B) + P (A ∩ B ′ )

∴ P (A ∩ B ′ ) = P (A) − P (A ∩ B)
= P (A) − P (A)P (B) (∵ A and B are independent events.)
= P (A)(1 − P (B))
= P (A)P (B ′ ).

Thus, A and B ′ are independent events.

(ii) We need to prove P (A′ ∩ B ′ ) = P (A′ )P (B ′ ). We have

P (A′ ∩ B ′ ) = P ((A ∪ B)′ ) = 1 − P (A ∪ B) = 1 − (P (A) + P (B) − P (A ∩ B))

= 1 − (P (A) + P (B) − P (A)P (B)) (P (A ∩ B) = P (A)P (B) since A and B are independent events.)
= 1 − P (A) − P (B)(1 − P (A))
= (1 − P (A))(1 − P (B))
= P (A′ )P (B ′ ).

Thus, A′ and B ′ are also independent events.

Ex. A problem is given to three students in a class. The probabilities of the solution from the three
students are 0.5, 0.7 and 0.8 respectively. What is the probability that the problem will be solved?

11
Sol. Let A, B and C be the events of solution of the problem by the three students respectively so that
P (A) = 0.5, P (B) = 0.7 and P (C) = 0.8. Here A, B and C are independent events, and so are A′ , B ′ and
C ′ . Therefore, the probability that none of the students solves the problem is given by P (A′ ∩ B ′ ∩ C ′ ).
So the probability that at least one student solves the problem is given by

1 − P (A′ ∩ B ′ ∩ C ′ ) = 1 − P (A′ )P (B ′ )P (C ′ ) = 1 − (1 − 0.5)(1 − 0.7)(1 − 0.8) = 0.97.

1.3 Theorem of Total Probability

If B1 , B2 , · · · , Bn are mutually exclusive and exhaustive events in the sample space S of a random
experiment, then the probability of any event A in S is given by
n
X
P (A) = P (Bi )P (A|Bi ).
i=1

Figure 1.6: Partitioning the sample space S

Proof: Since B1 , B2 , · · · , Bn are exhaustive events in the sample space S, so

n
[
S= Bi .
i=1

It follows that
n n
!
[ [
A=A∩S =A∩ Bi = (A ∩ Bi ).
i=1 i=1

Now B1 , B2 , · · · , Bn are mutually exclusive events. Therefore, A ∩ B1 , A ∩ B2 , · · · , A ∩ Bn are also

mutually exclusive events. So we have
n
X n
X
P (A) = P (A ∩ Bi ) = P (Bi )P (A|Bi ).
i=1 i=1

Ex. In a certain assembly plant, three machines, M1 , M2 , and M3 , make 30%, 45%, and 25%, respec-
tively, of the products. It is known from past experience that 2%, 3%, and 2% of the products made
by each machine, respectively, are defective. Now, suppose that a finished product is randomly selected.
What is the probability that it is defective?

12
Sol. Consider the following events:
A : the product is defective,
B1 : the product is made by machine M1 ,
B2 : the product is made by machine M2 ,
B3 : the product is made by machine M3 .

From the given data in the statement, we have

P (B1 ) = 0.3, P (B2 ) = 0.45, P (B3 ) = 0.25,

P (A|B1 ) = 0.02, P (A|B2 ) = 0.03, P (A|B3 ) = 0.02.

From the total probability theorem, it follows that

P (A) = P (B1 )P (A|B1 ) + P (B2 )P (A|B2 ) + P (B3 )P (A|B3 )

= (0.3)(0.02) + (0.45)(0.03) + (0.25)(0.02) = 0.0245.

Ex. A person has undertaken a construction job. The probabilities are 0.65 that there will be strike, 0.80
that the construction job will be completed on time if there is no strike, and 0.32 that the construction
job will be completed on time if there is a strike. Determine the probability that the construction job will
be completed on time.

Sol. Let A be the event that the construction job will be completed on time, and B be the event that
there will be a strike. Then the required probability is given by

P (A) = P (B)P (A|B) + P (B ′ )P (A|B ′ )

= (0.65)(0.32) + (1 − 0.65)(0.8) = 0.488.

1.4 Bayes’ Theorem

If B1 , B2 , .... , Bn are mutually exclusive and exhaustive events in the sample space S of a random
experiment and A is any event in S with nonzero probability, then

P (Bk )P (A|Bk )
P (Bk |A) = n ,
X
P (Bi )P (A|Bi )
i=1

where k = 1, 2, · · · , n.

Proof: From conditional probability, we have

P (A ∩ Bk ) P (Bk )P (A|Bk )
P (Bk |A) = = .
P (A) P (A)

So the desired result follows from the theorem of total probability.

Ex. Four units of a bulb making factory respectively produce 3%, 2%, 1% and 0.5% defective bulbs. A
bulb selected at random from the entire output is found defective. Find the probability that it is produced
by the fourth unit of the factory.

13
Sol. Consider the following events:
A : the bulb is defective,
B1 : the bulb is made by first unit,
B2 : the bulb is made by second unit,
B3 : the bulb is made by third unit,
B4 : the bulb is made by fourth unit.

From the given data in the statement, we have

P (B1 ) = 0.25, P (B2 ) = 0.25, P (B3 ) = 0.25, P (B4 ) = 0.25

P (A|B1 ) = 0.03, P (A|B2 ) = 0.02, P (A|B3 ) = 0.01, P (A|B4 ) = 0.005.

Then the required probability that the randomly chosen bulb from the entire output is made by the
fourth unit is
P (B4 )P (A|B4 )
P (B4 |A) = P (B1 )P (A|B1 )+P (B2 )P (A|B2 )+P (B3 )P (A|B3 )+P (B4 )P (A|B4 )
(0.25)(0.005) 1
= (0.25)(0.03)+(0.25)(0.02)+(0.25)(0.01)+(0.25)(0.005) = 13 .

Ex. A man is known to speak truth 3 out of 4 times. He rolls a die and reports that it is a six. Find the
probability that it is actually a six.

Sol. Let A be the event that the man reports that six occurs in the throw of the die. Let B be the event
that 6 appears on the die. Then the required probability is P (B|A). By Bayes’ theorem we have
1
P (B)P (A|B) × 34
P (B|A) = P (B)P (A|B)+P (B ′ )P (A|B ′ ) = 1
6
× 4 + 56 × 14
3 = 38 .
6

Ex. In answering a question on a multiple choice test, a student either knows the answer or guesses. Let
3 1
4 be the probability that he knows the answer and 4 be the probability that he guesses. Assuming that
a student who guesses at the answer will be correct with probability 14 . What is the probability that the
student knows the answer given that he answered it correctly?

Sol. First, we define the following events:

B1 : The student knows the answer

B2 : The student guesses the answer
A: The student correctly answers the question

Then P (B1 ) = 43 , P (B2 ) = 41 , P (A|B1 ) = 1, P (A|B2 ) = 14 .

So the probability that the student knows the answer given that he answered it correctly, is given by
P (B1 )P (A|B1 ) 12
P (B1 |A) = P (B1 )P (A|B1 )+P (B1 )P (A|B1 ) = 13 .

1.5 A note on probability and statistics

Engineers and scientists are constantly exposed to collections of facts, or data. The discipline of statistics
provides methods for organizing/summarizing data and for drawing conclusions based on information
contained in the data.

14
 A statistical investigation is typically focused on a well-defined collection of objects constituting a
population of interest. When desired information is available for all objects in the population, we have
what is called a census. But obtaining census of large size populations is usually impractical or infeasible
due to time, money, resources and many other constraints. In such situations, a subset of the population
- a sample - is selected in some prescribed manner. e.g., Suppose we wish to calculate average income
per person in India. So we need to collect the information about the income of each person in India which
is impractical. So sampling becomes essential in such situations.

We are usually interested only in certain characteristics of the objects in a population. A characteristic
may be categorical or it may be numerical in nature. For example, we may be interested to collect the
information about gender and age of engineering graduates. Here, the value of the characteristic ‘gender’
is a category, whereas the value of the characteristic ‘age’ is a number.

A variable is any characteristic whose value may change from one object to another in the population.
Data arise from observations either on a single variable or simultaneously on two or more variables. A
univariate data set consists of observations on a single variable. For example, we might determine the
type of transmission, automatic (A) or manual (M), on each of ten automobiles recently purchased at a
certain dealership, resulting in the categorical univariate data set: M A A A M A A M A A

The following sample of lifetimes (hours) of brand D batteries put to a certain use is a numerical
univariate data set: 5.6 5.1 6.2 6.0 5.8 6.5 5.8 5.5

We have bivariate data when observations are made on each of two variables. Our data set might
consist of a (height, weight) pair for each basketball player on a team, with the first observation as (72,
168), the second as (75, 212), and so on. In general, Multivariate data arise when observations are made
on more than one variable (so bivariate is a special case of multivariate).
Descriptive Statistics belongs to the data analysis in the cases where the data set size is manageable
and can be analysed analytically or graphically. Some of these methods are graphical in nature; the
construction of histograms, boxplots, and scatter plots are primary examples. Other descriptive methods
involve calculation of numerical summary measures, such as means, standard deviations, and correlation
coefficients.
On the other hand, Inferential Statistics is applied where the entire data set (population) can not
be analysed at one go or as a whole. So we draw a sample (a small or manageable portion) from the
population. Then we analyse the sample for the characteristic of interest and try to infer the same about
the population. For example, when you cook rice, you take out few grains and crush them to see whether
the rice is properly cooked. Similarly, survey polls prior to voting in elections, TRP ratings of TV channel
shows etc are samples based and therefore belong to the inferential statistics.
The discipline of probability forms a bridge between the descriptive and inferential techniques.
Mastery of probability leads to a better understanding of how inferential procedures are developed and
used, how statistical conclusions can be translated into everyday language and interpreted, and when and
where pitfalls can occur in applying the methods. Probability and statistics both deal with questions
involving populations and samples, but do so in an “inverse manner” to one another. The relationship
between the two disciplines can be summarized by saying that probability reasons from the population to
the sample (deductive reasoning), whereas inferential statistics reasons from the sample to the population
(inductive reasoning).
In order to understand what a particular sample can tell us about the population, we should first
understand the uncertainty associated with taking a sample from a given population. This is why we
study probability before statistics. So statistics is fundamentally based on the theory of probability.

15
1.6 Misc. Practice Problems
In the following, there is a collection of miscellaneous problems based on the topics described in the
previous sections. You should solve these without seeing the partial or complete solutions given here.

1. A developer of a new subdivision offers prospective home buyers a choice of Tudor, rustic, colonial,
and traditional exterior styling in ranch, two-story, and split-level floor plans. In how many different
ways can a buyer order one of these homes?
Sol. Here n1 = 4 and n2 = 3. So a buyer must choose from n1 n2 = (4)(3) = 12 possible homes.

2. If a 22-member club needs to elect a chair and a treasurer, how many different ways can these two
to be elected?
Sol. For the chair position, there are 22 total possibilities. For each of those 22 possibilities, there are
21 possibilities to elect the treasurer. Using the multiplication rule, we obtain n1 ×n2 = 22×21 = 462
different ways.
Suppose, for instance, that a customer wishes to buy a new cell phone and can choose from
n1 = 5 brands, n2 = 5 sets of capability, and n3 = 4 colors. These three classifications result
in n1 n2 n3 = (5)(5)(4) = 100 different ways for a customer to order one of these phones.

3. A person is going to assemble a computer by himself. He has the choice of chips from two brands,
a hard drive from four, memory from three, and an accessory bundle from five local stores. How
many different ways can the person order the parts?
Sol. Since n1 = 2, n2 = 4, n3 = 3, and n4 = 5, there are

n1 × n2 × n3 × n4 = 2 × 4 × 3 × 5 = 120

different ways to order the parts.

4. How many even four-digit numbers can be formed from the digits 0, 1, 2, 5, 6, and 9 if each digit
can be used only once?
Sol. The fourth digit in the four digit-number can be 0 or 2 or 6. Further, 0 can not be first digit.
So the number of even four-digit numbers is

3 × 4 × 5 × 3 − 1 × 3 × 4 × 2 = 156.

5. In one year, three awards (research, teaching, and service) will be given to a class of 25 graduate
students in a statistics department. If each student can receive at most one award, how many pos-
sible selections are there?
25!
Sol. 25P3 = 22! = (25)(24)(23) = 13800.

6. A president and a treasurer are to be chosen from a student club consisting of 50 people. How many
different choices of officers are possible if (a) there are no restrictions; (b) A will serve only if he is
president; (c) B and C will serve together or not at all; (d) D and E will not serve together?
Sol. (a) 50P2 = 2450 (b) 49 + 49P2 = 2352 (c) 2 + 48P2 = 2258 (d) 2450 − 2 = 2440.

7. In how many ways can 7 graduate students be assigned to 1 triple and 2 double hotel rooms during
a conference?
7!
Sol. = 210.
3! 2! 2!

16
 8. In a poker hand consisting of 5 cards, find the probability of holding 2 aces and 3 jacks.

4C 4C
2 3
Sol. 52C
= 0.00009.
5

9. Two dice are rolled once. Find the probability of getting an even number on the first die or a total
of 8.

Sol. 18/36 + 5/36 − 3/36 = 5/9

10. In a certain residential suburb, 60% of all households get Internet service from the local cable
company, 80% get television service from that company, and 50% get both services from that
company. If a household is randomly selected, what is the probability that it gets at least one of
these two services from the company, and what is the probability that it gets exactly one of these
services from the company?
Sol. Let A and B be the events that a household gets internet and television services, respectively,
from the local company. So P (A) = 0.6, P (B) = 0.8 and P (A ∩ B) = 0.5. Then the probability
that a household gets at least one of these two services from the company is given by

P (A ∪ B) = 0.6 + 0.8 − 0.5 = 0.9

The probability of getting exactly one of the two services is

P (A ∩ B ′ ) + P (A′ ∩ B) = 0.1 + 0.3 = 0.4

11. John is going to graduate from an industrial engineering department in a university by the end of
the semester. After being interviewed at two companies he likes, he assesses that his probability of
getting an offer from company A is 0.8, and his probability of getting an offer from company B is
0.6. If he believes that the probability that he will get offers from both companies is 0.5, what is
the probability that he will get at least one offer from these two companies?

Sol. 0.8 + 0.6 − 0.5 = 0.9

12. If the probabilities are, respectively, 0.09, 0.15, 0.21, and 0.23 that a person purchasing a new au-
tomobile will choose the color green, white, red, or blue, what is the probability that a given buyer
will purchase a new automobile that comes in one of those colors?

Sol. 0.09 + 0.15 + 0.21 + 0.23 = 0.68

13. If the probabilities that an automobile mechanic will service 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, or 8 or more cars on any
given workday are, respectively, 0.12, 0.19, 0.28, 0.24, 0.10, and 0.07, what is the probability that
he will service at least 5 cars on his next day at work?

Sol. 1 − (0.12 + 0.19) = 0.69

17
14. Assuming 365 days in year, find the probability that among 30 students in a classroom, at least two
will have the same birthday.

Sol. A student can have birthday on any of the 365 ways. So for 30 students, total number of
ways is 36530 . The birthdays of all 30 students can be on different days in P30,365 ways. Hence, the
365
probability that at least two will have the same birthday, is 1 − 365P30
30
.

15. In a game, each player chooses six numbers between one and forty nine. If these numbers all match
the six winning numbers, then the player wins the first prize. For the second prize, a player needs
to match five numbers with the winning numbers. What are the probabilities of winning the first
and second prizes?

6C 43C 6C
6 1 5
Sol. (i) 49C
(ii) 49C
6 6

16. The probability that a regularly scheduled flight departs on time is P (D) = 0.83; the probability
that it arrives on time is P (A) = 0.82; and the probability that it departs and arrives on time is
P (D ∩ A) = 0.78. Find the probability that a plane (a) arrives on time, given that it departed on
time, and (b) departed on time, given that it has arrived on time.

Sol. (a) P (A/D) = P (D ∩ A)/P (D) = 0.78/0.83 = 0.94

(b) P (D|A) = P (D ∩ A)/P (A) = 0.78/0.82 = 0.95

17. The concept of conditional probability has countless uses in both industrial and biomedical appli-
cations. Consider an industrial process in the textile industry in which strips of a particular type
of cloth are being produced. These strips can be defective in two ways, length and nature of tex-
ture. For the case of the latter, the process of identification is very complicated. It is known from
historical information on the process that 10% of strips fail the length test, 5% fail the texture
test, and only 0.8% fail both tests. If a strip is selected randomly from the process and a quick
measurement identifies it as failing the length test, what is the probability that it is texture defective?

Sol. (a) P (T |L) = P (T ∩ L)/P (L) = 0.008/0.1 = 0.08. Thus, knowing the conditional probability
provides considerably more information than merely knowing P (T ).

18. A die is rolled twice and the sum of the numbers appearing is noted to be 8. What is the probability
that the number 5 has appeared at least once?

Sol. P (A) = 11/36, P (B) = 5/36, P (A ∩ B) = 2/36, P (A|B) = 2/5.

19. Suppose that we have a fuse box containing 20 fuses, of which 5 are defective. If 2 fuses are selected
at random and removed from the box in succession without replacing the first, what is the proba-
bility that both fuses are defective?

Sol. We shall let A be the event that the first fuse is defective and B the event that the sec-
ond fuse is defective; then we interpret A ∩ B as the event that A occurs and then B occurs
after A has occurred. The probability of first removing a defective fuse is P (A) = 1/4; then the

18
 probability of removing a second defective fuse from the remaining 4 is P (B|A) = 4/19. Hence,
P (A ∩ B) = P (A)P (B|A) = (1/4)(4/19) = 1/19.

20. Suppose an individual applying to a college determines that he has an 80% chance of being accepted,
and he knows that dormitory housing will only be provided for 60% of all of the accepted students.
Find the probability of the student being accepted and receiving dormitory housing.

Sol. Let A be the event of the acceptance of the student and B be the event of receiving dormitory
housing. Then P (A) = 0.8, and P (B|A) = 0.6. So required probability is

P (A ∩ B) = P (B|A)P (A) = (0.6)(0.8) = 0.48.

21. A small town has one fire engine and one ambulance available for emergencies. The probability that
the fire engine is available when needed is 0.98, and the probability that the ambulance is available
when called is 0.92. In the event of an injury resulting from a burning building, find the probability
that both the ambulance and the fire engine will be available, assuming they operate independently.

Sol. (0.98)(0.92) = 0.9016

22. An electrical system consists of four components as illustrated in Figure 1.7. The system works if
components A and B work and either of the components C or D works. The reliability (probability
of working) of each component is also shown in Figure 1.7. Find the probability that (a) the entire
system works and (b) the component C does not work, given that the entire system works. Assume
that the four components work independently.

Figure 1.7:

Sol. (a) The event that the entire system works is A ∩ B ∩ (C ∪ D). Therefore its probability is,
P (A ∩ B ∩ (C ∪ D))
= P ((A ∩ B ∩ C) ∪ (A ∩ B ∩ D))
= P (A ∩ B ∩ C) + P (A ∩ B ∩ D) − P ((A ∩ B ∩ C) ∩ (A ∩ B ∩ D)) (By addition rule of probability)
= P (A ∩ B ∩ C) + P (A ∩ B ∩ D) − P (A ∩ B ∩ C ∩ D)
= P (A)P (B)P (C) + P (A)P (B)P (D) − P (A)P (B)P (C)P (D) (∵ A, B, C, D all are independent
events)
= (0.9)(0.9)(0.9) + (0.9)(0.9)(0.8) − (0.9)(0.9)(0.8)(0.8)
= 0.7776.

19
 (b) The probability that the component C does not work, given that the entire system works, is
given by
P (C ′ |(A ∩ B ∩ (C ∪ D)))
= P (A ∩ B ∩ (C ∪ D) ∩ C ′ )/P (A ∩ B ∩ (C ∪ D))
= P (A ∩ B ∩ ((C ∩ C ′ ) ∪ (D ∩ C ′ )))/P (A ∩ B ∩ (C ∪ D))
= P (A ∩ B ∩ ((ϕ) ∪ (D ∩ C ′ )))/P (A ∩ B ∩ (C ∪ D))
= P (A ∩ B ∩ D ∩ C ′ )/P (A ∩ B ∩ (C ∪ D))
= P (A)P (B)P (D)P (C ′ )/P (A ∩ B ∩ (C ∪ D)) (∵ A, B, C ′ , D all are independent events)
= P (A)P (B)P (D)(1 − P (C))/P (A ∩ B ∩ (C ∪ D))
= (0.9)(0.9)(0.8)(1 − 0.8)/0.7776 = 0.1667.

23. Bag I contains 3 red and 4 black balls while another Bag II contains 5 red and 6 black balls. One
ball is drawn at random from one of the bags and it is found to be red. Find the probability that
it was drawn from Bag II.

Sol. 35/68

24. In a factory which manufactures bolts, machines A, B and C manufacture respectively 25%, 35%
and 40% of the bolts. Of their outputs, 5, 4 and 2 percent are respectively defective bolts. A bolt
is drawn at random from the product and is found to be defective. What is the probability that it
is manufactured by the machine B?

Sol. 28/69

25. Given three identical boxes I, II and III, each containing two coins. In box I, both coins are gold
coins, in box II, both are silver coins and in the box III, there is one gold and one silver coin. A
person chooses a box at random and takes out a coin. If the coin is of gold, what is the probability
that the other coin in the box is also of gold?

Sol. Let B1 , B2 and B3 be the events that the boxes I, II and III are chosen, respectively. Let A
be the event that the coin is gold. Since the box I carries both the gold coins. So the probability
that the other coin in the box is also of gold is given by P (B1 |A). Ans. 2/3

26. Show that P (B ∪ C|A) = P (B|A) + P (C|A) − P (B ∩ C|A).

Sol. We have
P ((B ∪ C) ∩ A)
P (B ∪ C|A) =
P (A)
P ((B ∩ A) ∪ (C ∩ A))
=
P (A)
P (B ∩ A) + P (C ∩ A) − P ((B ∩ A) ∩ (C ∩ A))
=
P (A)
P (B ∩ A) + P (C ∩ A) − P (B ∩ A ∩ C)
=
P (A)
P (B ∩ A) P (C ∩ A) P (B ∩ C ∩ A)
= + −
P (A) P (A) P (A)
= P (B|A) + P (C|A) − P (B ∩ C|A).

20
 P (A)P (C|A) + P (B)P (C|B) − P (A ∩ B)P (C|(A ∩ B))
27. Show that P (C|(A ∪ B)) = .
P (A) + P (B) − P (A ∩ B)

Sol. We have
P (C|(A ∪ B))
P (C ∩ (A ∪ B))
=
P (A ∪ B)
P ((C ∩ A) ∪ (C ∩ B))
=
P (A ∪ B)
P (C ∩ A) + P (C ∩ B) − P (C ∩ A ∩ B)
=
P (A ∪ B)
P (A)P (C|A) + P (B)P (C|B) − P (A ∩ B)P (C|(A ∩ B))
= .
P (A) + P (B) − P (A ∩ B)

28. Two cards are drawn from a deck of cards without replacement. Find the probability that the first
card is a red card and second card is an ace.

Sol. The first red card may or may not be an ace. Let A be the event that the first red card is an
ace; B be the event that the first red card is not an ace, and C be the event that the second card
is an ace. Then the required probability is
P (C ∩ (A ∪ B)) = P (A)P (C|A) + P (B)P (C|B) − P (A ∩ B)P (C|(A ∩ B))
2 3 24 4
= × + × − 0 = 0.0385.
52 51 52 51

29. Two cards are drawn from a deck of cards without replacement. Find the probability that the
second card is an ace given that the first card is a red card.

Sol. The first red card may or may not be an ace. Let A be the event that the first red card is an
ace; B be the event that the first red card is not an ace, and C be the event that the second card
is an ace. Then the required probability is
P (A)P (C|A) + P (B)P (C|B) − P (A ∩ B)P (C|(A ∩ B))
P (C|(A ∪ B)) =
P (A) + P (B) − P (A ∩ B)
2 3 24 4
× + × −0
= 52 51 52 51 = 0.0769.
2 24
+ −0
52 52
Remark. In the first example, we have calculated the probability of happening of the events A ∪ B
and C. But in the second example, we have calculated the probability of happening of the event C
using the given fact that the event A ∪ B has already happened. The certainty of event A ∪ B in
this case gives rise to larger value of probability.

Note. Mutually exclusive events need not be independent. For, consider two mutually exclusive events A
and B such that P (A)P (B) > 0. Now A and B are mutually exclusive, so A ∩ B = ϕ. It follows
that P (A ∩ B) = P (ϕ) = 0. Also, P (A)P (B) > 0. So P (A ∩ B) ̸= P (A)P (B). It implies that A
and B are not independent.

Note. Independent events need not be mutually exclusive. For, consider two indepedent events A and B
such that P (A)P (B) > 0. Now A and B are independent, so P (A ∩ B) = P (A)P (B). It follows

21
 that P (A ∩ B) > 0. So A ∩ B ̸= ϕ. It implies that A and B are not mutually exclusive.

30. A doctor is to visit a patient. From the past experience, it is known that the probabilities that he
will come by train, bus, scooter or by other means of transport are respectively 3/10, 1/5, 1/10 and
2/5. The probabilities that he will be late are 1/4, 1/3, and 1/12, if he comes by train, bus and
scooter respectively, but if he comes by other means of transport, then he will not be late. When
he arrives, he is late. What is the probability that he comes by train?

Sol. Let A be the event that the doctor visits the patient late and let B1 , B2 , B3 and B4 be the
events that the doctor comes by train, bus, scooter, and other means of transport respectively. Then
the required probability is P (B1 /A). By the Bayes’ theorem, we have

P (B1 )P (A|B1 )
P (B1 |A) = P (B1 )P (A|B1 )+P (B2 )P (A|B2 )+P (B3 )P (A|B3 )+P (B4 )P (A|B4 )
(3/10)(1/4) 1
= (3/10)(1/4)+(1/5)(1/3)+(1/10)(1/12)+(2/5)(0) = 2 .

31. A person has 3 different email accounts. Most of his messages, in fact 70%, come into account
#1, whereas 20% come into account #2 and the remaining 10% into account #3. Of the messages
into account #1, only 1% are spam, whereas the corresponding percentages for accounts #2 and
#3 are 2% and 5%, respectively. What is the probability that a randomly selected message is spam?

Sol. 0.016 (Apply total probability theorem).

32. 1 in 1000 adults is affected with a rare disease for which a diagnostic test has been developed. The
test is such that when an individual actually has the disease, a positive result will occur 99% of the
time, whereas an individual without the disease will show a positive test result only 2% of the time.
If a randomly selected individual is tested and the result is positive, what is the probability that
the individual has the disease?

Sol. 0.047 (Apply Bayes’ theorem).

33. Show that the condition P (A ∩ B ∩ C) = P (A)P (B)P (C) for the independence of three events A,
B and C, is necessary but not sufficient.

Sol. Suppose we roll a 8 faced die. Then the sample space has numbers 1 to 8, each with probability
1/8.

Let A = B = {1, 2, 3, 4} and C = {1, 5, 6, 7}.

Then P (A) = P (B) = P (C) = 1/2 and P (A ∩ B ∩ C) = P (1) = 1/8.

However, A and B are obviously not independent. Also A and C are not independent.

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