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 Business Analytics: Data Analysis and Decision Making, 5e
Chapter 8: Confidence Interval Estimation

Answers to Conceptual Questions

Note to Instructors: Student answers will vary. The responses here are intended to provide
general guidance in terms of concepts that could be discussed.

C.1. The only problem is with a sample size that is not large enough to overcome a non-normal
population distribution. If the sample size is reasonably large and/or the population
distribution isn’t too non-normal, the confidence interval formulas in this chapter should
apply quite well.

C.2. The whole reason for using the t distribution with n-1 degrees of freedom, rather than the
standard normal distribution, for the sampling distribution of the sample mean is that the
population standard deviation is unknown. If it were known and could be used in the
standard error of the sample mean (sigma over the square root of n), there would be no
need for the t distribution.

C.3. When the confidence level increases, say, from 90% to 95% or from 95% to 99%, the
confidence interval length will increase for sure. But when the sample size increases, the
standard error of the mean will usually decrease, implying a narrower confidence interval.
So it’s not clear what will happen to the confidence interval length when the confidence
level and the sample size both increase.

C.4. The width of the interval decreases by the square root of 2. This is due to the square root of
n in the formula for the standard error of the mean.

C.5. Although many people state it like this, it isn’t really correct. Any confidence interval
calculated from sample data either includes the true population parameter or it doesn’t.
The correct interpretation of a 99% confidence interval is that if you calculate many of
them, each from a different sample from the same population, about 99% of them will
contain the true population parameter and only about 1% won’t.

C.6. If you are interested only in 2010 Major League Baseball players and you have all of their
salaries, there is no need for statistical inference; you know the population mean. Actually,
it’s not clear what other population might be relevant here. The population of all future
Major League Baseball players? If so, their salaries are likely to be inflated from those in
2010, so inferring future salaries from those in 2010 might not be such a good idea.

C.7. To check whether the procedure is “valid,” you would try it on many random samples
from a population where you know the true population parameter. Then the procedure is
valid if about 95% of these intervals contain the true value. This is easy to do with
simulation because you get to choose the population and its mean.

C.8. It is pretty intuitive that the more variability there is in a population, the more difficult it is to
estimate the mean accurately. With more variability, there is a greater chance that a
sample will contain one or more extreme observations and will hence lead to a poor Commented [WU1]: hence will?
estimate of the mean. To counteract this, a larger sample size is required.

C.9. The answer is the same as the answer to #5 above.

© 2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or
posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Chapter 8: Confidence Interval Estimation 2

C.10. A “95% confidence interval” is constructed so that any one of them has a 95% chance of
including the true population parameter. But if you calculate many such confidence
intervals, each for a different population parameter, the probability that all of them
contain their respective population parameters is considerably less than 95%. An analogy
is with a really good free-throw shooter in basketball who makes 95% of his free throws. In
this case, the probability that he makes a given free throw is 95%, but if he shoots many
free throws, the probability that he makes all of them is clearly less than 95%.

C.11. In this case, the confidence interval for the “younger minus older” mean difference
extends from a negative number, -14.3, to a positive number, 1.2. If the younger students
scored, on average, exactly the same as the older students, the true mean difference
would be 0. We can’t totally rule out this possibility because 0 is inside the calculated
confidence interval. However, because the interval is much more negative than positive,
there is more evidence that the true difference is negative, implying that younger
students score lower.

© 2015 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or
posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
Other documents randomly have
different content
 CHAPTER XII
HIS RECORD

Shortly after his nomination for President in 1920, I told Mr. Cox
that I was writing a story of his life. He answered:
“Well, Babson, please omit all the unessentials and even the
things which I have said, and—so far as possible—confine it to my
record and what I have done.”
Therefore, in this closing chapter, I wish to record some of the
things which he has actually done and for which I am indebted to his
friend and associate, Mr. E. H. Moore. Most of these things Mr. Cox,
either as Congressman or as Governor, actually started, put thru or
consummated. A few of them he simply aided by his influence, but
all he believed in and worked for and saw accomplished.
All classes of citizenship have confidence in Mr. Cox because he
accepts safe counsel and is a careful judge. Among the legislative
measures above referred to, let me enumerate:

Business Service
A public utilities law providing property revaluation as a basis for
rate making.
Provision for court appeal from the utilities commission decision
to the court of final jurisdiction, preventing delay and loss.
Prohibition against injunction on rate hearing without court
investigation.
A uniform accounting system applied to public utilities.
A state banking code with close coöperation with the Federal
Reserve system, bringing all private banks under state supervision.
 A blue sky act to encourage proper investment and to protect
against fraudulent securities.

Labor Legislation
A compulsory workmen’s compensation law, admittedly the best
in the Union and which has been accepted as the model by other
progressive states.
A State Industrial Commission with powers to handle all
questions affecting capital and labor, with a state mediator as the
keystone.
Complete survey of occupational diseases with recommendation
for health and occupational insurance.
Full switching crew law for all railroad yards.
Legislation strengthening the use in the state of railroad safety
appliances.
A full-crew law.
A twenty-four-foot caboose law.
Reduction of consecutive hours of employment for electric
railroad workers.
Obstruction of fixed signals prohibited.
Safeguarding of accidents in mines by proper illumination.
Extra provision for dependents of men killed in mines.
Increased facilities for mine inspector operation.
Protection of miners working toward abandoned mines.
Elimination of sweatshop labor.
Provision for minimum time per day.
Prohibition of contract labor in workhouses.
Eight-hour working day on all public contracts.
Elimination of the “fellow-servant rule,” “contributory
negligence,” and similar rules as to industrial accidents as a part of
the administration of compulsory workmen’s compensation, re-
establishing faith in the courts.
 Verdict by three-fourths jury in civil cases.
Shortened litigation and lessened expense by giving appellate
courts final jurisdiction except in extraordinary cases.
Laws to provide against adulteration of food-stuffs, and prevent
combination to fix prices.

Social Service
Establishment of a state tuberculosis hospital and district
hospitals thruout the state by county action.
Adoption of health code giving state health commissioner
regulatory power over subdivision officials, with a special
appropriation to combat epidemics and contagious diseases.
Formation of a state-wide social agency committee, bringing
into mutual operation all recognized social agencies of the state (the
only one of its kind in the Union), having complete coöperation with
state departments.
Additional provision for care of feeble-minded, including erection
and equipment of a new institution on the cottage plan, with
appropriation for a tuberculosis hospital.
Provision for additional cottages at the hospital for epileptics.
Establishment of a Bureau of Juvenile Research with provision
for thoro mental and physical examinations of all juveniles
committed to the institutions of the state; for final placement in the
institution best fitted for the ward’s needs. This bureau is primarily a
mental hygiene clinic, coöperating with other mental clinics thruout
the state and maintaining a permanent central registration of mental
defectives, looking toward elimination of causes which produce
defective children.
Codification of child laws with establishment of child welfare
department.
Compulsory provision for mothers’ pensions.
Creation of a Board of Clemency, to be in constant session for
consideration of release, parole, and probation of persons under
penal sentences.
Indeterminate sentence law under which first offenders are
given every opportunity for rehabilitation, so that no men shall be
deprived of the opportunity of making a new beginning.
Purchase of a penitentiary farm and building of a new
penitentiary in the country.
Employment of prisoners in road work, including the
manufacture of road building machinery and material, with
compensation of prisoners for all work done, with earnings over cost
of maintenance paid directly to dependants of prisoners.
Recommendation and passage of state legislation for woman
suffrage.

Educational Developments
Consolidated schools in excess of 1200, with full high school
courses, have supplanted more than five times that number of one-
room school houses.
A complete supervision of school courses and textbooks has
been established.

Agricultural Legislation
A law combining all agricultural activities under jurisdiction of an
agricultural commission.
Provision for study of farm credit plans.
Protection against sale of untested fertilizers.
Provision for destruction of and remuneration for diseased
cattle.
Compulsory orchard spraying law, with spraying material under
license.
Establishment of breeding service at institutional farms, and the
building up of pure-bred herds thruout the state.
Passage of a pure seed bill.
 Establishment of producer-to-consumer market bureau.
Enlargement of agricultural aid thru the experiment station and
state agricultural college.

Good Roads Program

Beginning in 1915, with an annual revenue of three and one-
half million dollars, with a carefully planned system of inter-county
and main-market highways under state supervision with federal aid,
the program for Ohio was extended until now there has been made
available from state sources the sum of thirty million dollars annually
for the maintenance and upkeep of main roads.
Legislation for the use of the split log drag on graveled
connecting roads.
Provision for the united action of township, county
commissioners and state highway department on all road work.

National Ideals
In closing let me quote once more from Mr. Cox, mostly from an
address before the Iroquois Club at Chicago, March 25, 1920.
“Public officers are the representatives of government and they
promote or diminish confidence in our institutions either by wisdom
or error. Never before has there been such a pressing necessity for
plain good faith on the part of those in whose hands rests
governmental power as exists today.
“We must give immediate attention to matters of domestic
concern. Our whole economic status seems to be unnatural. Prices
are high and they will remain so until we seriously dedicate our
efforts to the wiping away of things that came with the war.
“A considerable factor in the high cost of living is the
continuance of the excess profits tax. In establishing the selling price
of its product, every business establishment sets aside a reasonable
profit and then adds to it the amount that must be paid to the
government. This is done in turn by the manufacturer, the jobber,
the distributor and the retailer, the inevitable result being a
staggering cost to the consumer.
“Approximately four billion dollars will be necessary to conduct
the department of government and to meet sinking fund and interest
charges. Almost half of this could be derived by applying a tax of
from one to one and one-half per cent on the volume of business
done by any going concern. It would be a simple matter to collect
this tax; the tax-payer would not be confused by it, and it would be
neither cause nor alibi for excessive prices.
“I favor the abolishment of the federal inheritance tax just as
soon as we can get along without it. This method of taxation should
be left to the states. Tax on inheritance is based upon the principle
of government being compensated for service rendered in conveying
property from one generation to another. A man makes a will and it
has a definite force and effect because the law legalizes it. The right
is given to him by the state and the process of the distribution of his
estate is thru the agency of local government. The federal authority
has nothing to do with it, therefore the compensation for services
rendered should be to the states.
“There is some hysteria over the subject of active elements in
this country that are menacing to the government. There is no
immediate danger in the situation, altho it might easily be
aggravated if the governmental policy of restraint and common
sense that has endured thru the years, were to become one of force
and terrorism. There must be no compromise with treason, but the
surest death to Bolshevism is exposure of the germ of the disease
itself to the sunlight of public view. In the old days, the treatment
for scarlet fever consisted of an intensive attack on the high
temperature of fever. The result was a reaction on vital organs that
left permanent affliction. Now the fever, under restraint, is permitted
to run its course and what was once regarded as a very serious
ailment is little more than a simple malady.
“We must protect ourselves against extremes in America. The
horrors and tragedies of revolution can be charged to them. If
government is assailed, its policy must not become vengeful. Our
fathers in specifying human freedom, and providing guarantees for
its preservation, recognized that among the necessary precautions
was the protection of individual right against governmental abuses.
“If the alien, ignorant of our laws and customs, cowers in fear
of our government, he is very apt to believe that things are much
the same the world over, and he may become an easy convert to the
doctrines of resistance. The skies will clear, but meanwhile,
government must be firm yet judicial, uninfluenced by the
emotionalism that breeds extremes. The less government we have,
consistent with safety to life and property, the better for both
happiness and morals. A policeman on every corner would be a bad
index to the citizenship of the community, for it would reflect a
foolish concept of conditions by the municipal officers.
“In this, I merely seek to give point to the necessity now that
the war is over, of junking the most of our institutions devoted to
war, and scaling governmental machinery down to the very point of
necessity and efficiency. It is idle to talk of reducing governmental
expense if the nation has to be armed to the teeth, and vast armies
and navies will be necessary if the concerted plan of international
peace fails. The guarantee against war is credit against which a
debit charge must be made, and after all, this is the very crux of the
controversy over the League of Nations.
“Finally, there can be no result worth while unless the nations of
the earth assume a definite obligation one to another. The mere
promise of this country to place its responsibility on the shifting
sands of congressional caprice is a travesty to human intelligence.
We are seeking to shake ourselves free from the cost of war, and yet
the task of readjustment along the line of constructive economy is
faced at the very outset with the question of what our military and
naval policy shall be.
“Let us meet these questions as brave and unselfish men, with
our eyes focused on the star of righteousness. Let us be liberal, but
practical; let us be kind, but firm; let us be patient, but persistent.
The great need today is not more government, but better
government; not government in the interest of any one class, but
government in the interest of all classes, yes, in the interest of all
nations.”

In this little volume, I have attempted a review, as fair minded

as lay in my powers, of salient facts in the life of one of America’s
conspicuous citizens. I can not in my own judgment class Governor
Cox as at present more than that—one of a rather large group of
America’s conspicuous citizens. Not a eulogy of a presidential
candidate, but a record of the facts with which the American public
should be familiar—this was my purpose.
And yet, I shall not deny that in this simple objective I hope for
a further result. That result must come if better knowledge begets
better judgment.
Such a pitiful mass of mere comment we meet everywhere
about men in public life! Campaign pyrotechnics, political bombast,
editorial puffs—or bitter attacks, untruthful insinuations, appeals to
blind prejudice!—and only here and there, amid all such chaff, a
kernel of fact!
Hence this presentation of the life of Cox—not opinions about
Cox, not words surrounding Cox, but the facts inherent in Cox, what
he said, what he did, what life he has lived to this day.
I should welcome nothing more than a similar presentation of
the life of Senator Harding, written by a sincere admirer, yet one
whose admiration does not make him blind to objective truths.
That I admire the man Cox is evident from this volume. This
admiration is based partly upon my observations thru personal
contact and partly upon my observation of the things this man has
done. His record as governor is truly remarkable and it may be that
we shall yet discover in this simple, plain Ohio newspaper publisher,
one of America’s historically great men.
But far more than in the man Cox am I interested in the
principles for which he stands. He is the exponent today of all our
forces of liberalism. And liberalism in my opinion is a synonym for
true Americanism, not the rhetorical Americanism of phrase makers,
but genuine Americanism.
A well-known Boston business man a few days ago accosted me
thus:
“Mr. Babson,” he said, “you are known as an adviser for
business interests, an expert on finance, an authority on
investments. Why do you ally yourself with political interests that are
hostile to all our financial interests?”
I answered him by saying:
“I advise investors as honestly as I know how regarding their
investment problems. I also reserve the right and the duty to
express myself to the public as honestly as I know how regarding
public problems. I am not in the slightest allied to any political
group; but my financial interests must not and will not taint my
political views.
“Incidentally, I am not publishing advice regarding Mr. Cox. I am
simply a recorder of facts, including facts which are anything but
campaign material in behalf of the governor’s political advancement.
“But if I were to put the proposition on sordid grounds, I might,
if it were not against my principles to mix political views with the
pure routine of business statistics and business forecast, proceed to
show why the financial interests should ally themselves at this hour
with all the forces of liberalism.
“For the question of the hour is not embodied in the issues as
they appear before the public. These issues are but the expressions
of the fundamental issue,—the contest of liberalism and reaction.
 “If we have a period of reactionary rule for the next four years,
not only will labor suffer, but all industry must surely soon suffer the
consequences—the consequences of attempting to fight the
inevitable onward march of Father Time.
“Reactionary business men in America do not appear to realize
that they are walking hand in hand with the ultra-radicals. In
England, the financial interests have awakened, for there the ultra-
radicals are plainly on record as opposed above all else to the
compromises of liberalism because as they frankly admit, such
liberalism ‘tends to preserve the present system of society instead of
hastening the upheaval.’
“The greatest danger in America today comes from those who,
seeing the steam escaping from the safety valve, are crying loud to
shut the valve.”

THE END
*** END OF THE PROJECT GUTENBERG EBOOK COX—THE MAN ***

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