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13 Probability
13.1 The probability scale
Exercise 13.1 Key words
event
Focus even chance
1 a Write three events that are very unlikely to happen. likely
b Write two events that are likely to happen. likelihood
probability
2 Suppose you spin three coins at the same time. Describe the
likelihood of getting: unlikely
a three heads b at least one head
c three tails or fewer
3 Look at these events on this probability scale.
AB C D E F G H

0 1
Which event is best described as:
a impossible? b very likely?
c a little bit less than an even chance?
4 Match each probability (a to e) to a description (i to vii).
a 0.7 i even chance
8
b 15 ii impossible
c 4% iii very unlikely
247
d 250 iv certain
e 50% v likely
vi more likely than not
vii extremely likely

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13.1 The probability scale

5 Put these probabilities in order, with the smallest first.

5 17
60% 0.9 46.7%
8 20

Practice
6 Here is the probability scale from Question 3.
AB C D E F G H

0 1
Which event has a probability of:
3
a about 23%? b just over ? c 0.55?
4
7 The probability of rain tomorrow is 30%.
a The likelihood of sunshine is half the likelihood of rain.
What is the probability of sunshine?
b The likelihood of strong winds is twice the likelihood of rain.
Show that strong winds have a more than even chance.
8 Show these events on a probability scale.
2
A The probability the team will win is .
3
B The probability the train will be late is 15%.
C Hasini will definitely be late.
D The chance I will win the game is 0.2.
9 Here are some probabilities when you spin a coin three times.
Mark the probabilities on a probability scale.
1
A: Getting three heads
8
7
B: Not getting three heads
8
C: Getting two or three heads even chance

Challenge
10 Arun says: The probability that
my team will win tomorrow is
60%. The probability that my team
will win at least one of their next four
matches is double the probability
that they will win tomorrow.

Arun must be incorrect. Explain why.

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13 Probability

11 Marcus’ sister is taking a driving test. He says:

There are two

outcomes. Either she will pass
or she will fail. It is like flipping
a coin. The probability that
she will pass is 1 .

Do you agree with Marcus? If not, how would you convince him
that he is incorrect?
12 a The probability that a train will be late is 10%. What is the
probability that the train will not be late?
b The probability that a basketball team will win a game is 60%.
What can you say about the probability that the team will lose?

13.2 Mutually exclusive outcomes

Exercise 13.2 Key words
mutually
Focus
outcome
1 Five cards have letters on them, as shown.
X Y X Y X
A card is taken without looking. Find the probability that the letter is:
a X b Y c Z
2 Here is a spinner with seven equal sectors.
Work out the probability that the spinner 2
lands on:
a 2
b a number that is more than 2
c an even number
d an odd number
e a number that is less than 10
f a prime number

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13.2 Mutually exclusive outcomes

3 Look at the spinner in Question 2. Describe three mutually exclusive

outcomes that have different probabilities.
4 There are 10 balls in a bag. There are 4 red balls,
3 blue balls, 2 green balls and 1 yellow ball. A ball is
taken without looking.
a Work out the probability that the ball taken is:
i blue ii red iii green
iv yellow v purple
b Work out the probability that the ball taken is not red.
c The yellow ball is removed. What is the probability
now for taking each of the three remaining colours?

Practice
5 Ushi throws a fair 6-sided dice.
a Find an outcome that has a probability of:
1 iii 5 iv 1 2
i 50% ii v
6 6 3 3
b Explain why it is impossible to find an outcome with a
probability of 25%.
6 A teacher has a class of 20 students. Of these students, 12 are boys.
a How can the teacher choose one name at random?
b Find the probability that the student chosen is a girl.
7 There are some coloured counters in a bag. One counter is removed
without looking. The probability that the counter is red is 60%. The
probability that the counter is blue is 30%.
a How do you know that there are other coloured counters in
the bag?
b What can you say about the probability that the counter
is green?
8 This fair dice has 20 faces, which are numbered from 1 to 20.
The dice is thrown once.
Find the probability that the outcome is:
a a multiple of 3 b a multiple of 8
c a prime number d a square number
e a two-digit number f not 20
g not less than 5

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13 Probability

Challenge
9 Vidun has a set of lettered cards. He takes one card without looking.
The probability that the letter is A is 20%. The probability that the
letter is B is 30%.
a Work out the probability that the letter is not A or B.
b Explain why there must be an even number of cards in the set.
Give a reason for your answer.
c What is the smallest possible number of cards in the set?
Give a reason for your answer.
10 Dice can have more than
six faces.
Genji throws an unbiased 12 20
dice with more than six faces.
The faces are numbered 1, 2, 3, …
a The probability of an odd number is 50%. What can you say about
the number of faces?
b The probability of a multiple of 3 is 30%. Work out the number of
faces. Is there more than one answer possible?
11 A student puts each letter of her name on a separate card. She asks a
friend to take one card without looking. The probability that the letter is
A is 40%. The probability that the letter is S is 20%. The probability that
the letter is E is zero.
What could the student’s name be?

13.3 Experimental probabilities

Exercise 13.3 Key words
experimental
Focus probability
theoretical
1 A gardener plants 45 seeds and 31 of the seeds grow successfully. probability
Work out the experimental probability that a seed will:
trial
a grow successfully b not grow successfully
2 A total of 378 babies are weighed when they are born. Of these,
125 babies have a mass of less than 3 kg.
Work out the experimental probability that a baby has a mass of:
a less than 3 kg b at least 3 kg

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13.3 Experimental probabilities

3 A call centre receives 200 calls. This table shows how long a caller
must wait before speaking to a customer service officer.

less than less than less than less than less than
Time
1 minute 2 minutes 3 minutes 4 minutes 5 minutes
Frequency 21 43 110 148 200

Work out the experimental probability that a caller will wait:

a less than 2 minutes b between 2 and 3 minutes c at least 3 minutes

Practice
4 The heights of 234 young men, aged 20 to 29 years, are measured.
Here are the results.

Height less than 165 cm between 165 cm and 180 cm over 180 cm

Frequency 28 160 46

Work out the experimental probability that the height of a man

aged 20 to 29 years is:
a less than 165 cm b 180 cm or less c 165 cm or more

5 The lights of 20 cars are tested. The car could pass (P) or fail (F).
Here are the results: PPPPP PPPPF PFPPPP PPPP
a Work out the experimental probability that a car will:
i pass ii fail
Here are the results for another 20 cars: PPFPP FPPPP PPPPF FPPPP
b Recalculate the probabilities in part a based on all 40 cars.
c Why are the second experimental probabilities more reliable?
6 A woman travels to work on a bus each morning. She keeps a
record for 30 days. The bus is late nine times.
a Work out the experimental probability that the bus will be:
i late ii on time
In the next 25 days the bus is late four times.
b Use all the results to find the experimental probability that the bus will be:
i late ii on time
c The woman predicts that the bus will be late 24 times in the next 100 days.
How did she work out this number?

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13 Probability

Challenge
7 A computer simulates spinning three coins 160 times and records
the number of heads. Here are the results.

Number of heads 0 1 2 3
Frequency 17 61 68 14

a Work out the experimental probability of getting:

i three heads ii three tails
iii at least two heads
1
A teacher says: ‘The theoretical probability of getting three heads is .’
8
b How does the theoretical probability compare to the
experimental probability of getting three heads?
c What can you say about the theoretical and experimental
probabilities for getting zero heads?
8 A computer simulates throwing two dice and adding the scores together.
It does this 100 times. Here are the results.

8 10 7 8 10 9 9 5 3 7 7 7 6 7 6 5 9 10 7 8
10 7 9 5 4 7 10 4 6 4 5 7 4 12 9 10 10 6 6 5
5 7 7 3 8 6 5 9 6 10 7 6 12 5 8 9 4 6 8 11
10 5 4 6 4 8 5 7 5 4 7 5 8 5 5 8 6 8 4 10
2 3 6 2 3 6 4 10 8 7 4 8 8 6 3 7 5 7 9 10

a Work out the experimental probability of getting:

i 7 ii more than 7 iii less than 7 iv 12
b Do you think that 100 trials is enough to get reliable results? Give a
reason for your answer.
9 A coin is spun until a head appears. The number of spins is recorded.
This is repeated 100 times. The results are shown in this table.

Number of spins 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Frequency 48 24 13 8 2 0 2 1 0 1

a Work out the experimental probability of:

i getting a head on the first spin
ii needing exactly three spins until a head appears
iii needing more than three spins until a head appears

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13.3 Experimental probabilities

b Does 100 trials give a good estimate of the experimental probabilities of

needing different number of spins? Explain your answer.
10 Some students are asked if they want to be engineers, lawyers or accountants.
The results are shown in this table.

Total number of Want to be Want to be Want to be an

students surveyed an engineer a lawyer accountant
Female 80 12 20 16
Male 120 48 21 19

Find the probability that:

a a female student wants to be an engineer
b a male student wants to be a lawyer
c a female student does not want to be an accountant

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