Non Farmpayrolls/Employment Levels

DATE ACTUAL CHANGE 12m AVE Standard Deviation

28-Feb-08 3.88 Previous ACTUAL 4.96
29-May-08 3.9 0.02 Previous 12m AVE 4.74
28-Aug-08 3.92 0.02 Average ACTUAL 4.26
27-Nov-08 3.96 0.04 StDev ACTUAL 0.37
24-Feb-09 3.96 0 StDev CHANGE 0.11
26-May-09 3.96 0
25-Aug-09 3.95 -0.01
24-Nov-09 3.96 0.01 Volatility
25-Feb-10 3.96 0 3rd StDev 5.85
27-May-10 3.96 0 2nd StDev 5.48
26-Aug-10 3.97 0.01 1st StDev 5.11
25-Nov-10 4.08 0.11 3.96 Previous 12m AVE 4.74
24-Feb-11 4.09 0.01 3.97 1st StDev 4.37
26-May-11 4.11 0.02 3.99 2nd StDev 4.00
12-Dec-11 4.05 -0.06 4.00 3rd StDev 3.63
12-Dec-11 4.02 -0.03 4.01
28-Feb-12 4.04 0.02 4.01 Step Value (5- to 10) -0.07
25-May-12 4.05 0.01 4.02 Step Value (0 to 5) -0.07
28-Aug-12 4.07 0.02 4.03 Step Value (0 to -5) -0.07
26-Nov-12 4.12 0.05 4.04 Step Value (-5 to -10) -0.07
26-Feb-13 4.12 0 4.06
28-May-13 4.15 0.03 4.07
29-Aug-13 4.17 0.02 4.09 Dispersion
25-Nov-13 4.2 0.03 4.10 3rd StDev 0.35
27-Feb-14 4.189 -0.011 4.11 2nd StDev 0.24
27-May-14 4.192 0.003 4.11 1st StDev 0.14
Aug 28, 2014
(Q2)
4.2 0.008 4.13 Average CHANGE 0.03
Nov 24, 2014
(Q3)
4.23 0.03 4.14 1st StDev -0.08
Feb 24, 2015
(Q4)
4.23 0 4.16 2nd StDev -0.19
May 26, 2015
(Q1)
4.22 -0.01 4.17 3rd StDev -0.29
Aug 25, 2015
(Q2)
4.24 0.02 4.19
Feb 26, 2016
(Q4)
4.9 0.66 4.25 Step Value (5 to 10) -0.02
May 27, 2016
(Q1)
4.88 -0.02 4.32 Step Value (0 to 5) -0.02
Aug 30, 2016
(Q2)
4.9 0.02 4.38 Step Value (0 to -5) -0.02
Nov 29, 2016
(Q3)
4.92 0.02 4.44 Step Value (-5 to -10) -0.02
Feb 27, 2017
(Q4)
4.91 -0.01 4.50
May 29, 2017
(Q1)
4.88 -0.03 4.56
Aug 28, 2017
(Q2)
4.91 0.03 4.62
Nov 27, 2017
(Q3)
4.956 0.046 4.68
Feb 26, 2018
(Q4)
4.962 0.006 4.74
Jun 04, 2018
(Q1)
yment Levels
SCORING
Forecast 4.975 4 Volatility
Change 0.01 0 Dispersion
Average Score 2

Volatility Dispersion
2nd 5.48 10 0.24 10
5.41 9 0.22 9
5.33 8 0.20 8
5.26 7 0.18 7
5.19 6 0.16 6
1st 5.11 5 0.14 5
5.04 4 0.11 4
4.96 3 0.09 3
4.89 2 0.07 2
4.82 1 0.05 1
Ave 4.74 0 0.03 0
4.67 -1 0.01 -1
4.59 -2 -0.02 -2
4.52 -3 -0.04 -3
4.45 -4 -0.06 -4
1st 4.37 -5 -0.08 -5
4.30 -6 -0.10 -6
4.22 -7 -0.12 -7
4.15 -8 -0.14 -8
4.08 -9 -0.17 -9
2nd 4.00 -10 -0.19 -10
 CPI mm
DATE ACTUAL CHANGE 12m AVE Standard Deviation
11-Jan-13 -0.20 Previous ACTUAL 0.40
12-Feb-13 -0.30 -0.1 Previous 12m AVE 0.09
8-Mar-13 0.30 0.6 Average ACTUAL 0.00
9-Apr-13 0.20 -0.1 StDev ACTUAL 0.25
8-May-13 0.00 -0.2 StDev CHANGE 0.30
6-Jun-13 0.10 0.1
5-Jul-13 0.10 0
7-Aug-13 -0.40 -0.5 Volatility
6-Sep-13 -0.10 0.3 3rd StDev 0.85
8-Oct-13 0.30 0.4 2nd StDev 0.59
5-Nov-13 -0.10 -0.4 1st StDev 0.34
6-Dec-13 0.00 0.1 -0.01 Previous 12m AVE 0.09
10-Jan-14 -0.20 -0.2 -0.01 1st StDev -0.16
12-Feb-14 -0.30 -0.1 -0.01 2nd StDev -0.41
7-Mar-14 0.10 0.4 -0.03 3rd StDev -0.66
7-Apr-14 0.40 0.3 -0.01
8-May-14 0.10 -0.3 0.00 Step Value (5- to 10) -0.05
6-Jun-14 0.30 0.2 0.02 Step Value (0 to 5) -0.05
8-Jul-14 -0.10 -0.4 0.00 Step Value (0 to -5) -0.05
6-Aug-14 -0.40 -0.3 0.00 Step Value (-5 to -10) -0.05
8-Sep-14 0.00 0.4 0.01
Oct 07, 2014
(Sep)
0.10
0.1 -0.01
Nov 05, 2014
(Oct)
0.00 -0.1 0.00 Dispersion
Dec 08, 2014
(Nov)
0.00
0 0.00 3rd StDev 0.91
Jan 09, 2015
(Dec)
-0.50
-0.5 -0.02 2nd StDev 0.61
Feb 10, 2015
(Jan)
-0.40 0.1 -0.03 1st StDev 0.31
Mar 06, 2015
(Feb)
-0.30
0.1 -0.07 Average CHANGE 0.01
Apr 08, 2015
(Mar)
0.30
0.6 -0.08 1st StDev -0.29
May 08, 2015
(Apr)
-0.20
-0.5 -0.10 2nd StDev -0.59
Jun 09, 2015
(May)
0.20
0.4 -0.11 3rd StDev -0.89
Jul 06, 2015
(Jun)
0.10 -0.1 -0.09
Aug 05, 2015
(Jul)
-0.60 -0.7 -0.11 Step Value (5 to 10) -0.06
Sep 04, 2015
(Aug)
-0.20
0.4 -0.13 Step Value (0 to 5) -0.06
Oct 06, 2015
(Sep)
0.10
0.3 -0.13 Step Value (0 to -5) -0.06
Nov 05, 2015
(Oct)
0.10 0 -0.12 Step Value (-5 to -10) -0.06
Dec 04, 2015
(Nov)
-0.10
-0.2 -0.13
Jan 08, 2016
(Dec)
-0.40
-0.3 -0.12
Feb 11, 2016
(Jan)
-0.40 0 -0.12
Mar 08, 2016
(Feb)
0.20
0.6 -0.08
Apr 08, 2016
(Mar)
0.30
0.1 -0.08
May 09, 2016
(Apr)
0.30
0 -0.03
Jun 08, 2016
(May)
0.10
-0.2 -0.04
Jul 07, 2016
(Jun)
0.10 0 -0.04
Aug 08, 2016
(Jul)
-0.40 -0.5 -0.03
Sep 06, 2016
(Aug)
-0.10
0.3 -0.02
Oct 06, 2016
(Sep)
0.10
0.2 -0.02
Nov 07, 2016
(Oct)
0.10 0 -0.02
Dec 06, 2016
(Nov)
-0.20
-0.3 -0.03
Jan 05, 2017
(Dec)
-0.10
0.1 0.00
Feb 14, 2017
(Jan)
0.00 0.1 0.03
Mar 08, 2017
(Feb)
0.50
0.5 0.06
Apr 06, 2017
(Mar)
0.20
-0.3 0.05
May 11, 2017
(Apr)
0.20
0 0.04
Jun 08, 2017
(May)
0.20
0 0.05
Jul 06, 2017
(Jun)
-0.10 -0.3 0.03
Aug 07, 2017
(Jul)
-0.30 -0.2 0.04
Sep 05, 2017
(Aug)
0.00
0.3 0.05
Oct 05, 2017
(Sep)
0.20
0.2 0.06
Nov 06, 2017
(Oct)
0.10 -0.1 0.06
Dec 06, 2017
(Nov)
-0.10
-0.2 0.07
Jan 08, 2018
(Dec)
0.00
0.1 0.08
Feb 12, 2018
(Jan)
-0.10 -0.1 0.07
Mar 06, 2018
(Feb)
0.40
0.5 0.06
Apr 05, 2018
(Mar)
0.40
0 0.08
May 07, 2018
(Apr)
0.20
-0.2 0.08
Jun 06, 2018
(May)
0.40 0.2 0.09
 SCORING
Forecast 0.03 -1 Volatility
Change -0.37 -6 Dispersion
Average Score -4

Volatility Dispersion
2nd 0.59 10 0.61 10
0.54 9 0.55 9
0.49 8 0.49 8
0.44 7 0.43 7
0.39 6 0.37 6
1st 0.34 5 0.31 5
0.29 4 0.25 4
0.24 3 0.19 3
0.19 2 0.13 2
0.14 1 0.07 1
Ave 0.09 0 0.01 0
0.04 -1 -0.05 -1
-0.01 -2 -0.11 -2
-0.06 -3 -0.17 -3
-0.11 -4 -0.23 -4
1st -0.16 -5 -0.29 -5
-0.21 -6 -0.35 -6
-0.26 -7 -0.41 -7
-0.31 -8 -0.47 -8
-0.36 -9 -0.53 -9
2nd -0.41 -10 -0.59 -10
 CPI yy
DATE ACTUAL CHANGE 12m AVE Standard Deviation
Jan 01, 2011
(Dec)
0.50
Previous ACTUAL 1.00
Feb 01, 2011
(Jan)
0.30 -0.2 Previous 12m AVE 0.66
Mar 01, 2011
(Feb)
0.50
0.2 Average ACTUAL -0.18
Apr 01, 2011
(Mar)
1.00
0.5 StDev ACTUAL 0.64
May 01, 2011
(Apr)
0.30
-0.7 StDev CHANGE 0.22
Jun 01, 2011
(May)
0.40
0.1
Jul 01, 2011
(Jun)
0.60 0.2
Aug 01, 2011
(Jul)
0.50 -0.1 Volatility
Sep 01, 2011
(Aug)
0.20
-0.3 3rd StDev 2.57
Oct 01, 2011
(Sep)
0.50
0.3 2nd StDev 1.94
Nov 01, 2011
(Oct)
-0.10 -0.6 1st StDev 1.30
Dec 01, 2011
(Nov)
-0.50
-0.4 0.35 Previous 12m AVE 0.66
Jan 01, 2012
(Dec)
-0.70
-0.2 0.25 1st StDev 0.02
Feb 01, 2012
(Jan)
-0.80 -0.1 0.16 2nd StDev -0.62
Mar 01, 2012
(Feb)
-0.90
-0.1 0.04 3rd StDev -1.26
Apr 01, 2012
(Mar)
-1.00
-0.1 -0.13
May 01, 2012
(Apr)
-1.00
0 -0.23 Step Value (5- to 10) -0.13
Jun 01, 2012
(May)
-1.00
0 -0.35 Step Value (0 to 5) -0.13
Jul 01, 2012
(Jun)
-1.10 -0.1 -0.49 Step Value (0 to -5) -0.13
Aug 01, 2012
(Jul)
-0.70 0.4 -0.59 Step Value (-5 to -10) -0.13
Sep 01, 2012
(Aug)
-0.50
0.2 -0.65
Oct 01, 2012
(Sep)
-0.40
0.1 -0.73
Nov 01, 2012
(Oct)
-0.20 0.2 -0.73 Dispersion
Dec 01, 2012
(Nov)
-0.40
-0.2 -0.73 3rd StDev 0.66
Jan 01, 2013
(Dec)
-0.40
0 -0.70 2nd StDev 0.44
Feb 01, 2013
(Jan)
-0.30 0.1 -0.66 1st StDev 0.22
Mar 01, 2013
(Feb)
-0.30
0 -0.61 Average CHANGE 0.01
Apr 01, 2013
(Mar)
-0.60
-0.3 -0.58 1st StDev -0.21
May 01, 2013
(Apr)
-0.60
0 -0.54 2nd StDev -0.43
6-Jun-13 -0.50 0.1 -0.50 3rd StDev -0.65
5-Jul-13 -0.10 0.4 -0.42
7-Aug-13 0.00 0.1 -0.36 Step Value (5 to 10) -0.04
6-Sep-13 0.00 0 -0.32 Step Value (0 to 5) -0.04
8-Oct-13 -0.10 -0.1 -0.29 Step Value (0 to -5) -0.04
5-Nov-13 -0.30 -0.2 -0.30 Step Value (-5 to -10) -0.04
6-Dec-13 0.10 0.4 -0.26
10-Jan-14 0.10 0 -0.22
12-Feb-14 0.10 0 -0.18
7-Mar-14 -0.10 -0.2 -0.17
7-Apr-14 0.00 0.1 -0.12
8-May-14 0.00 0 -0.07
6-Jun-14 0.20 0.2 -0.01
8-Jul-14 0.00 -0.2 0.00
6-Aug-14 0.00 0 0.00
8-Sep-14 0.10 0.1 0.01
Oct 07, 2014
(Sep)
-0.10
-0.2 0.01
Nov 05, 2014
(Oct)
0.00 0.1 0.03
Dec 08, 2014
(Nov)
-0.10
-0.1 0.02
Jan 09, 2015
(Dec)
-0.30
-0.2 -0.02
Feb 10, 2015
(Jan)
-0.50 -0.2 -0.07
Mar 06, 2015
(Feb)
-0.80
-0.3 -0.13
Apr 08, 2015
(Mar)
-0.90
-0.1 -0.20
May 08, 2015
(Apr)
-1.10
-0.2 -0.29
Jun 09, 2015
(May)
-1.20
-0.1 -0.41
Jul 06, 2015
(Jun)
-1.00 0.2 -0.49
Aug 05, 2015
(Jul)
-1.30 -0.3 -0.60
Sep 04, 2015
(Aug)
-1.40
-0.1 -0.73
Oct 06, 2015
(Sep)
-1.40
0 -0.83
Nov 05, 2015
(Oct)
-1.40 0 -0.95
Dec 04, 2015
(Nov)
-1.40
0 -1.06
Jan 08, 2016
(Dec)
-1.30
0.1 -1.14
Feb 11, 2016
(Jan)
-1.30 0 -1.21
Mar 08, 2016
(Feb)
-0.80
0.5 -1.21
Apr 08, 2016
(Mar)
-0.90
-0.1 -1.21
May 09, 2016
(Apr)
-0.40
0.5 -1.15
Jun 08, 2016
(May)
-0.40
0 -1.08
Jul 07, 2016
(Jun)
-0.40 0 -1.03
Aug 08, 2016
(Jul)
-0.20 0.2 -0.94
Sep 06, 2016
(Aug)
-0.10
0.1 -0.83
Oct 06, 2016
(Sep)
-0.20
-0.1 -0.73
Nov 07, 2016
(Oct)
-0.20 0 -0.63
Dec 06, 2016
(Nov)
-0.30
-0.1 -0.54
Jan 05, 2017
(Dec)
0.00
0.3 -0.43
Feb 14, 2017
(Jan)
0.30 0.3 -0.30
Mar 08, 2017
(Feb)
0.60
0.3 -0.18
Apr 06, 2017
(Mar)
0.60
0 -0.06
May 11, 2017
(Apr)
0.40
-0.2 0.01
Jun 08, 2017
(May)
0.50
0.1 0.08
Jul 06, 2017
(Jun)
0.20 -0.3 0.13
Aug 07, 2017
(Jul)
0.30 0.1 0.18
Sep 05, 2017
(Aug)
0.50
0.2 0.23
Oct 05, 2017
(Sep)
0.70
0.2 0.30
Nov 06, 2017
(Oct)
0.70 0 0.38
Dec 06, 2017
(Nov)
0.80
0.1 0.47
Jan 08, 2018
(Dec)
0.80
0 0.53
Feb 12, 2018
(Jan)
0.70 -0.1 0.57
Mar 06, 2018
(Feb)
0.60
-0.1 0.57
Apr 05, 2018
(Mar)
0.80
0.2 0.58
May 07, 2018
(Apr)
0.80
0 0.62
Jun 06, 2018
(May)
1.00 0.2 0.66
 SCORING
Forecast 1.13 4 Volatility
Change 0.13 3 Dispersion
Average Score 4

Volatility Dispersion
2nd 1.94 10 0.44 10
1.81 9 0.40 9
1.68 8 0.36 8
1.55 7 0.31 7
1.42 6 0.27 6
1st 1.30 5 0.22 5
1.17 4 0.18 4
1.04 3 0.14 3
0.91 2 0.09 2
0.79 1 0.05 1
Ave 0.66 0 0.01 0
0.53 -1 -0.04 -1
0.40 -2 -0.08 -2
0.28 -3 -0.13 -3
0.15 -4 -0.17 -4
1st 0.02 -5 -0.21 -5
-0.11 -6 -0.26 -6
-0.24 -7 -0.30 -7
-0.36 -8 -0.34 -8
 -0.49 -9 -0.39 -9
2nd -0.62 -10 -0.43 -10
 Unemployment Rate
DATE ACTUAL CHANGE 12m AVE Standard Deviation
8-Jul-11 3.00 Previous ACTUAL 2.70
8-Aug-11 3.00 0 Previous 12m AVE 3.04
8-Sep-11 3.00 0 Average ACTUAL 3.17
7-Oct-11 3.00 0 StDev ACTUAL 0.16
7-Nov-11 3.00 0 StDev CHANGE 0.07
7-Dec-11 3.00 0
9-Jan-12 3.10 0.1
8-Feb-12 3.10 0 Volatility
7-Mar-12 3.10 0 3rd StDev 3.52
10-Apr-12 3.10 0 2nd StDev 3.36
7-May-12 3.10 0 1st StDev 3.20
7-Jun-12 3.20 0.1 3.06 Previous 12m AVE 3.04
9-Jul-12 2.90 -0.3 3.05 1st StDev 2.88
7-Aug-12 2.90 0 3.04 2nd StDev 2.73
7-Sep-12 2.90 0 3.03 3rd StDev 2.57
8-Oct-12 2.90 0 3.03
8-Nov-12 3.00 0.1 3.03 Step Value (5- to 10) -0.03
6-Dec-12 3.00 0 3.03 Step Value (0 to 5) -0.03
8-Jan-13 3.00 0 3.02 Step Value (0 to -5) -0.03
8-Feb-13 3.10 0.1 3.02 Step Value (-5 to -10) -0.03
7-Mar-13 3.10 0 3.02
9-Apr-13 3.10 0 3.02
7-May-13 3.10 0 3.02 Dispersion
10-Jun-13 3.20 0.1 3.02 3rd StDev 0.19
8-Jul-13 3.20 0 3.04 2nd StDev 0.13
8-Aug-13 3.20 0 3.07 1st StDev 0.06
9-Sep-13 3.20 0 3.09 Average CHANGE 0.00
8-Oct-13 3.20 0 3.12 1st StDev -0.07
8-Nov-13 3.20 0 3.13 2nd StDev -0.13
9-Dec-13 3.20 0 3.15 3rd StDev -0.20
10-Jan-14 3.20 0 3.17
10-Feb-14 3.20 0 3.18 Step Value (5 to 10) -0.01
7-Mar-14 3.20 0 3.18 Step Value (0 to 5) -0.01
8-Apr-14 3.20 0 3.19 Step Value (0 to -5) -0.01
7-May-14 3.20 0 3.20 Step Value (-5 to -10) -0.01
10-Jun-14 3.20 0 3.20
7-Jul-14 3.20 0 3.20
8-Aug-14 3.20 0 3.20
8-Sep-14 3.20 0 3.20
Oct 08, 2014
3.20
(Sep) 0 3.20
Nov 07, 2014
3.20
(Oct) 0 3.20
Dec 09, 2014
3.10
(Nov) -0.1 3.19
Jan 09, 2015
3.20
(Dec) 0.1 3.19
Feb 10, 2015
3.10
(Jan) -0.1 3.18
Mar 10, 2015
3.20
(Feb) 0.1 3.18
Apr 10, 2015
3.20
(Mar) 0 3.18
May 08, 2015
3.30
(Apr) 0.1 3.19
Jun 09, 2015
3.30
(May) 0 3.20
Jul 07, 2015
3.30
(Jun) 0 3.21
Aug 07, 2015
3.30
(Jul) 0 3.22
Sep 08, 2015
3.30
(Aug) 0 3.23
Oct 08, 2015
3.40
(Sep) 0.1 3.24
Nov 10, 2015
3.40
(Oct) 0 3.26
Dec 09, 2015
3.40
(Nov) 0 3.28
Jan 08, 2016
3.40
(Dec) 0 3.30
Feb 09, 2016
3.40
(Jan) 0 3.32
Mar 08, 2016
3.40
(Feb) 0 3.34
Apr 08, 2016
3.50
(Mar) 0.1 3.37
May 10, 2016
3.50
(Apr) 0 3.38
Jun 09, 2016
3.50
(May) 0 3.40
Jul 08, 2016
3.30
(Jun) -0.2 3.40
Aug 09, 2016
3.30
(Jul) 0 3.40
Sep 09, 2016
3.40
(Aug) 0.1 3.41
Oct 10, 2016
3.30
(Sep) -0.1 3.40
Nov 08, 2016
3.30
(Oct) 0 3.39
Dec 09, 2016
3.30
(Nov) 0 3.38
Jan 10, 2017
3.30
(Dec) 0 3.38
Feb 09, 2017
3.30
(Jan) 0 3.37
Mar 09, 2017
3.30
(Feb) 0 3.36
Apr 07, 2017
3.30
(Mar) 0 3.34
May 09, 2017
3.30
(Apr) 0 3.32
Jun 08, 2017
3.20
(May) -0.1 3.30
Jul 07, 2017
3.20
(Jun) 0 3.29
Aug 08, 2017
3.20
(Jul) 0 3.28
Sep 08, 2017
3.20
(Aug) 0 3.27
Oct 10, 2017
3.10
(Sep) -0.1 3.25
Nov 09, 2017
3.10
(Oct) 0 3.23
Dec 07, 2017
3.00
(Nov) -0.1 3.21
Jan 09, 2018
3.00
(Dec) 0 3.18
Feb 09, 2018
3.00
(Jan) 0 3.16
Mar 08, 2018
2.90
(Feb) -0.1 3.13
Apr 09, 2018
2.90
(Mar) 0 3.09
May 08, 2018
2.70
(Apr) -0.2 3.04
Jun 07, 2018
(May)
Rate
SCORING
Forecast 2.7 10 Volatility
Change 0.00 -1 Dispersion
Average Score 5

Volatility Dispersion
2nd 3.36 -10 0.13 -10
3.33 -9 0.11 -9
3.29 -8 0.10 -8
3.26 -7 0.09 -7
3.23 -6 0.08 -6
1st 3.20 -5 0.06 -5
3.17 -4 0.05 -4
3.14 -3 0.04 -3
3.10 -2 0.02 -2
3.07 -1 0.01 -1
Ave 3.04 0 0.00 0
3.01 1 -0.02 1
2.98 2 -0.03 2
2.95 3 -0.04 3
2.92 4 -0.06 4
1st 2.88 5 -0.07 5
2.85 6 -0.08 6
2.82 7 -0.10 7
2.79 8 -0.11 8
2.76 9 -0.12 9
2nd 2.73 10 -0.13 10
 PPI yy
DATE ACTUAL CHANGE 12m AVE Standard Deviation
Jul 01, 2011
(Jun)
-0.4 Previous ACTUAL 2.70
Aug 01, 2011
(Jul)
-0.6 -0.2 Previous 12m AVE 1.24
Sep 01, 2011
(Aug)
-1.9
-1.3 Average ACTUAL -1.24
Oct 01, 2011
(Sep)
-2
-0.1 StDev ACTUAL 2.29
Nov 01, 2011
(Oct)
-1.8 0.2 StDev CHANGE 0.58
Dec 01, 2011
(Nov)
-2.4
-0.6
Jan 01, 2012
(Dec)
-2.3
0.1
Feb 01, 2012
(Jan)
-2.4 -0.1 Volatility
Mar 01, 2012
(Feb)
-1.9
0.5 3rd StDev 8.12
Apr 01, 2012
(Mar)
-2
-0.1 2nd StDev 5.83
May 01, 2012
(Apr)
-2.3
-0.3 1st StDev 3.53
Jun 01, 2012
(May)
-2.3
0 -1.86 Previous 12m AVE 1.24
Jul 01, 2012
(Jun)
-2.2 0.1 -2.01 1st StDev -1.05
Aug 01, 2012
(Jul)
-1.8 0.4 -2.11 2nd StDev -3.34
Sep 01, 2012
(Aug)
-0.1
1.7 -1.96 3rd StDev -5.63
Oct 01, 2012
(Sep)
0.3
0.4 -1.77
Nov 01, 2012
(Oct)
0.4 0.1 -1.58 Step Value (5- to 10) -0.46
Dec 01, 2012
(Nov)
1.2
0.8 -1.28 Step Value (0 to 5) -0.46
Jan 01, 2013
(Dec)
1
-0.2 -1.01 Step Value (0 to -5) -0.46
Feb 01, 2013
(Jan)
0.8 -0.2 -0.74 Step Value (-5 to -10) -0.46
Mar 01, 2013
(Feb)
0.1
-0.7 -0.58
Apr 01, 2013
(Mar)
-0.3
-0.4 -0.43
May 01, 2013
(Apr)
-0.1
0.2 -0.25 Dispersion
13-Jun-13 -0.2 -0.1 -0.08 3rd StDev 1.78
15-Jul-13 0.2 0.4 0.13 2nd StDev 1.20
14-Aug-13 0.5 0.3 0.32 1st StDev 0.62
13-Sep-13 0.2 -0.3 0.34 Average CHANGE 0.04
14-Oct-13 0 -0.2 0.32 1st StDev -0.54
14-Nov-13 -0.3 -0.3 0.26 2nd StDev -1.12
13-Dec-13 -0.4 -0.1 0.13 3rd StDev -1.70
17-Jan-14 -0.4 0 0.01
13-Feb-14 -0.3 0.1 -0.08 Step Value (5 to 10) -0.12
14-Mar-14 -0.8 -0.5 -0.16 Step Value (0 to 5) -0.12
15-Apr-14 -0.7 0.1 -0.19 Step Value (0 to -5) -0.12
15-May-14 -1.2 -0.5 -0.28 Step Value (-5 to -10) -0.12
17-Jun-14 -0.8 0.4 -0.33
15-Jul-14 -0.8 0 -0.42
14-Aug-14 -0.8 0 -0.53
15-Sep-14 -1.2 -0.4 -0.64
Oct 14, 2014
(Sep)
-1.4
-0.2 -0.76
Nov 13, 2014
(Oct)
-1.1 0.3 -0.83
Dec 15, 2014
(Nov)
-1.6
-0.5 -0.92
Jan 19, 2015
(Dec)
-2.1
-0.5 -1.07
Feb 13, 2015
(Jan)
-2.7 -0.6 -1.27
Mar 16, 2015
(Feb)
-3.6
-0.9 -1.50
Apr 16, 2015
(Mar)
-3.4
0.2 -1.72
May 15, 2015
(Apr)
-5.2
-1.8 -2.06
Jun 15, 2015
(May)
-6
-0.8 -2.49
Jul 14, 2015
(Jun)
-6.1 -0.1 -2.93
Aug 13, 2015
(Jul)
-6.4 -0.3 -3.40
Sep 14, 2015
(Aug)
-6.8
-0.4 -3.87
Oct 13, 2015
(Sep)
-6.8
0 -4.32
Nov 13, 2015
(Oct)
-6.6 0.2 -4.77
Dec 15, 2015
(Nov)
-5.5
1.1 -5.10
Jan 19, 2016
(Dec)
-5.5
0 -5.38
Feb 22, 2016
(Jan)
-5.3 0.2 -5.60
Mar 17, 2016
(Feb)
-4.6
0.7 -5.68
Apr 14, 2016
(Mar)
-4.7
-0.1 -5.79
May 17, 2016
(Apr)
-2.4
2.3 -5.56
Jun 14, 2016
(May)
-1.2
1.2 -5.16
Jul 14, 2016
(Jun)
-1 0.2 -4.73
Aug 15, 2016
(Jul)
-0.8 0.2 -4.27
Sep 13, 2016
(Aug)
-0.4
0.4 -3.73
Oct 14, 2016
(Sep)
-0.1
0.3 -3.18
Nov 14, 2016
(Oct)
-0.2 -0.1 -2.64
Dec 14, 2016
(Nov)
-0.6
-0.4 -2.23
Jan 19, 2017
(Dec)
0
0.6 -1.78
Feb 14, 2017
(Jan)
0.8 0.8 -1.27
Mar 15, 2017
(Feb)
1.3
0.5 -0.78
Apr 13, 2017
(Mar)
1.3
0 -0.27
May 15, 2017
(Apr)
0.8
-0.5 -0.01
Jun 15, 2017
(May)
0.1
-0.7 0.10
Jul 13, 2017
(Jun)
-0.1 -0.2 0.18
Aug 15, 2017
(Jul)
-0.1 0 0.23
Sep 13, 2017
(Aug)
0.6
0.7 0.32
Oct 13, 2017
(Sep)
0.8
0.2 0.39
Nov 14, 2017
(Oct)
1.2 0.4 0.51
Dec 14, 2017
(Nov)
1.8
0.6 0.71
Jan 19, 2018
(Dec)
1.8
0 0.86
Feb 13, 2018
(Jan)
1.8 0 0.94
Mar 15, 2018
(Feb)
2.3
0.5 1.03
Apr 16, 2018
(Mar)
2
-0.3 1.08
May 15, 2018
(Apr)
2.7
0.7 1.24
Jun 13, 2018
(May)
 SCORING
Forecast 2.5 3 Volatility
Change -0.20 -2 Dispersion
Average Score 1

Volatility Dispersion
2nd 5.83 10 1.20 10
5.37 9 1.08 9
4.91 8 0.97 8
4.45 7 0.85 7
3.99 6 0.73 6
1st 3.53 5 0.62 5
3.08 4 0.50 4
2.62 3 0.39 3
2.16 2 0.27 2
1.70 1 0.15 1
Ave 1.24 0 0.04 0
0.78 -1 -0.08 -1
0.32 -2 -0.19 -2
-0.13 -3 -0.31 -3
-0.59 -4 -0.43 -4
1st -1.05 -5 -0.54 -5
-1.51 -6 -0.66 -6
-1.97 -7 -0.77 -7
-2.43 -8 -0.89 -8
-2.88 -9 -1.01 -9
2nd -3.34 -10 -1.12 -10
 PPI mm
DATE ACTUAL CHANGE 12m AVE Standard Deviation
13-Jul-12 -0.3 Previous ACTUAL 0.40
14-Aug-12 -0.3 0 Previous 12m AVE 0.21
13-Sep-12 0.5 0.8 Average ACTUAL -0.07
15-Oct-12 0.3 -0.2 StDev ACTUAL 0.42
13-Nov-12 -0.1 -0.4 StDev CHANGE 0.50
13-Dec-12 0 0.1
17-Jan-13 0.1 0.1
13-Feb-13 -0.1 -0.2 Volatility
15-Mar-13 0.1 0.2 3rd StDev 1.48
16-Apr-13 0 -0.1 2nd StDev 1.06
15-May-13 0.2 0.2 1st StDev 0.63
13-Jun-13 -0.3 -0.5 0.01 Previous 12m AVE 0.21
15-Jul-13 0.1 0.4 0.04 1st StDev -0.22
14-Aug-13 0 -0.1 0.07 2nd StDev -0.64
13-Sep-13 0.2 0.2 0.04 3rd StDev -1.07
14-Oct-13 0.1 -0.1 0.03
14-Nov-13 -0.4 -0.5 0.00 Step Value (5- to 10) -0.08
13-Dec-13 -0.1 0.3 -0.01 Step Value (0 to 5) -0.08
17-Jan-14 0 0.1 -0.02 Step Value (0 to -5) -0.08
13-Feb-14 0 0 -0.01 Step Value (-5 to -10) -0.08
14-Mar-14 -0.4 -0.4 -0.05
15-Apr-14 0 0.4 -0.05
15-May-14 -0.3 -0.3 -0.09 Dispersion
17-Jun-14 0.1 0.4 -0.06 3rd StDev 1.52
15-Jul-14 0 -0.1 -0.07 2nd StDev 1.02
14-Aug-14 0 0 -0.07 1st StDev 0.51
15-Sep-14 -0.2 -0.2 -0.10 Average CHANGE 0.01
Oct 14, 2014
(Sep)
-0.1
0.1 -0.12 1st StDev -0.49
Nov 13, 2014
(Oct)
-0.1 0 -0.09 2nd StDev -1.00
Dec 15, 2014
(Nov)
-0.7
-0.6 -0.14 3rd StDev -1.50
Jan 19, 2015
(Dec)
-0.4
0.3 -0.18
Feb 13, 2015
(Jan)
-0.6 -0.2 -0.23 Step Value (5 to 10) -0.10
Mar 16, 2015
(Feb)
-1.4
-0.8 -0.31 Step Value (0 to 5) -0.10
Apr 16, 2015
(Mar)
0.2
1.6 -0.29 Step Value (0 to -5) -0.10
May 15, 2015
(Apr)
-2.1
-2.3 -0.44 Step Value (-5 to -10) -0.10
Jun 15, 2015
(May)
-0.8
1.3 -0.52
Jul 14, 2015
(Jun)
-0.1 0.7 -0.53
Aug 13, 2015
(Jul)
-0.3 -0.2 -0.55
Sep 14, 2015
(Aug)
-0.7
-0.4 -0.59
Oct 13, 2015
(Sep)
-0.1
0.6 -0.59
Nov 13, 2015
(Oct)
0.2 0.3 -0.57
Dec 15, 2015
(Nov)
0.4
0.2 -0.48
Jan 19, 2016
(Dec)
-0.4
-0.8 -0.48
Feb 22, 2016
(Jan)
-0.4 0 -0.46
Mar 17, 2016
(Feb)
-0.6
-0.2 -0.39
Apr 14, 2016
(Mar)
0
0.6 -0.41
May 17, 2016
(Apr)
0.3
0.3 -0.21
Jun 14, 2016
(May)
0.4
0.1 -0.11
Jul 14, 2016
(Jun)
0.1 -0.3 -0.09
Aug 15, 2016
(Jul)
-0.1 -0.2 -0.08
Sep 13, 2016
(Aug)
-0.3
-0.2 -0.04
Oct 14, 2016
(Sep)
0.3
0.6 -0.01
Nov 14, 2016
(Oct)
0.1 -0.2 -0.02
Dec 14, 2016
(Nov)
0.1
0 -0.04
Jan 19, 2017
(Dec)
0.2
0.1 0.01
Feb 14, 2017
(Jan)
0.4 0.2 0.08
Mar 15, 2017
(Feb)
-0.2
-0.6 0.11
Apr 13, 2017
(Mar)
0.1
0.3 0.12
May 15, 2017
(Apr)
-0.2
-0.3 0.08
Jun 15, 2017
(May)
-0.3
-0.1 0.02
Jul 13, 2017
(Jun)
-0.1 0.2 0.00
Aug 15, 2017
(Jul)
0 0.1 0.01
Sep 13, 2017
(Aug)
0.3
0.3 0.06
Oct 13, 2017
(Sep)
0.5
0.2 0.08
Nov 14, 2017
(Oct)
0.5 0 0.11
Dec 14, 2017
(Nov)
0.6
0.1 0.15
Jan 19, 2018
(Dec)
0.2
-0.4 0.15
Feb 13, 2018
(Jan)
0.3 0.1 0.14
Mar 15, 2018
(Feb)
0.3
0 0.18
Apr 16, 2018
(Mar)
-0.2
-0.5 0.16
May 15, 2018
(Apr)
0.4
0.6 0.21
Jun 13, 2018
(May)
 SCORING
Forecast 0.3 2 Volatility
Change -0.10 -1 Dispersion
Average Score 1

Volatility Dispersion
2nd 1.06 10 1.02 10
0.97 9 0.92 9
0.89 8 0.82 8
0.80 7 0.72 7
0.72 6 0.62 6
1st 0.63 5 0.51 5
0.55 4 0.41 4
0.46 3 0.31 3
0.38 2 0.21 2
0.29 1 0.11 1
Ave 0.21 0 0.01 0
0.12 -1 -0.09 -1
0.04 -2 -0.19 -2
-0.05 -3 -0.29 -3
-0.13 -4 -0.39 -4
1st -0.22 -5 -0.49 -5
-0.30 -6 -0.60 -6
-0.39 -7 -0.70 -7
-0.47 -8 -0.80 -8
-0.56 -9 -0.90 -9
2nd -0.64 -10 -1.00 -10
 industrial production
DATE ACTUAL CHANGE 12m AVE Standard Deviation
6/18/2007 7:15 1.1 Previous ACTUAL 8.70
8/20/2007 9:15 -4.7 -5.8 Previous 12m AVE 0.58
9/18/2007 7:15 7 11.7 Average ACTUAL 0.95
12/17/2007 8:15 0.2 -6.8 StDev ACTUAL 4.81
9/16/2008 7:15 9.3 9.1 StDev CHANGE 7.41
12/16/2008 8:15 -5.1 -14.4
3/17/2009 8:15 0.4 5.5
6/16/2009 7:15 -13.1 -13.5 Volatility
9/15/2009 7:15 3.4 16.5 3rd StDev 15.00
12/15/2009 8:15 3.5 0.1 2nd StDev 10.20
3/18/2010 8:15 6.4 2.9 1st StDev 5.39
6/17/2010 7:15 -7.9 -14.3 0.04 Previous 12m AVE 0.58
9/16/2010 7:15 5.8 13.7 0.43 1st StDev -4.22
12/16/2010 8:15 1.4 -4.4 0.94 2nd StDev -9.03
3/17/2011 8:15 7.7 6.3 1.00 3rd StDev -13.83
6/16/2011 7:15 -9.6 -17.3 0.18
9/15/2011 7:15 2.9 12.5 -0.35 Step Value (5- to 10) -0.96
12/15/2011 8:15 -2 -4.9 -0.09 Step Value (0 to 5) -0.96
3/20/2012 8:15 7.9 9.9 0.53 Step Value (0 to -5) -0.96
7/16/2012 7:15 1.4 -6.5 1.74 Step Value (-5 to -10) -0.96
10/4/2012 7:15 4.6 3.2 1.84
1/21/2013 7:15 2.2 -2.4 1.73
4/8/2013 7:15 1.7 -0.5 1.34 Dispersion
7/8/2013 7:15 3.5 1.8 2.29 3rd StDev 22.41
9/6/2013 7:15 -1.1 -4.6 1.72 2nd StDev 15.00
12/4/2013 8:15 0.5 1.6 1.64 1st StDev 7.59
3/11/2014 8:15 0.4 -0.1 1.03 Average CHANGE 0.18
6/6/2014 7:15 0.6 0.2 1.88 1st StDev -7.23
9/5/2014 7:15 3.1 2.5 1.90 2nd StDev -14.64
11/27/2014 8:15 -0.4 -3.5 2.03 3rd StDev -22.05
2/26/2015 8:15 2.7 3.1 1.60
5/28/2015 7:15 -0.5 -3.2 1.44 Step Value (5 to 10) -1.48
8/27/2015 7:15 -2.5 -2 0.85 Step Value (0 to 5) -1.48
11/26/2015 8:15 -3.1 -0.6 0.41 Step Value (0 to -5) -1.48
2/25/2016 8:15 -4.5 -1.4 -0.11 Step Value (-5 to -10) -1.48
5/26/2016 7:15 1 5.5 -0.32
8/25/2016 7:15 -1.2 -2.2 -0.33
11/24/2016 9:08 0.4 1.6 -0.33
2/23/2017 8:15 -1.2 -1.6 -0.47
5/24/2017 7:15 -1.6 -0.4 -0.65
8/24/2017 7:15 2.9 4.5 -0.67
11/24/2017 8:15 8.6 5.7 0.08
2/22/2018 8:18 8.7 0.1 0.58
ction
SCORING
Forecast 6.7 7 Volatility
Change -2.00 -1 Dispersion
Average Score 3

Volatility Dispersion
2nd 10.20 10 15.00 10
9.23 9 13.52 9
8.27 8 12.04 8
7.31 7 10.55 7
6.35 6 9.07 6
1st 5.39 5 7.59 5
4.43 4 6.11 4
3.47 3 4.63 3
2.51 2 3.14 2
1.54 1 1.66 1
Ave 0.58 0 0.18 0
-0.38 -1 -1.30 -1
-1.34 -2 -2.78 -2
-2.30 -3 -4.26 -3
-3.26 -4 -5.75 -4
1st -4.22 -5 -7.23 -5
-5.18 -6 -8.71 -6
-6.15 -7 -10.19 -7
-7.11 -8 -11.67 -8
-8.07 -9 -13.16 -9
2nd -9.03 -10 -14.64 -10
 balance of trade
DATE ACTUAL CHANGE 12m AVE Standard Deviation
3-Feb-11 1.28 Previous ACTUAL 2.29
22-Feb-11 1.96 0.68 Previous 12m AVE 2.64
22-Mar-11 2.49 0.53 Average ACTUAL 2.56
26-Apr-11 1.09 -1.4 StDev ACTUAL 0.82
26-May-11 1.52 0.43 StDev CHANGE 1.07
23-Jun-11 3.31 1.79
21-Jul-11 1.74 -1.57
23-Aug-11 2.83 1.09 Volatility
20-Sep-11 0.81 -2.02 3rd StDev 5.12
20-Oct-11 1.85 1.04 2nd StDev 4.29
22-Nov-11 2.15 0.3 1st StDev 3.47
20-Dec-11 3 0.85 2.00 Previous 12m AVE 2.64
2-Feb-12 2.07 -0.93 2.07 1st StDev 1.82
21-Feb-12 1.55 -0.52 2.03 2nd StDev 0.99
22-Mar-12 2.68 1.13 2.05 3rd StDev 0.17
24-Apr-12 1.688 -0.992 2.10
24-May-12 1.334 -0.354 2.08 Step Value (5- to 10) -0.16
21-Jun-12 2.484 1.15 2.02 Step Value (0 to 5) -0.16
19-Jul-12 2.246 -0.238 2.06 Step Value (0 to -5) -0.16
23-Aug-12 2.916 0.67 2.06 Step Value (-5 to -10) -0.16
20-Sep-12 1.733 -1.183 2.14
18-Oct-12 2.015 0.282 2.16
20-Nov-12 2.821 0.806 2.21 Dispersion
20-Dec-12 2.946 0.125 2.21 3rd StDev 3.22
5-Feb-13 1.003 -1.943 2.12 2nd StDev 2.15
21-Feb-13 2.126 1.123 2.17 1st StDev 1.08
21-Mar-13 2.098 -0.028 2.12 Average CHANGE 0.01
23-Apr-13 1.9 -0.198 2.14 1st StDev -1.06
28-May-13 1.728 -0.172 2.17 2nd StDev -2.13
20-Jun-13 2.224 0.496 2.15 3rd StDev -3.20
18-Jul-13 2.732 0.508 2.19
22-Aug-13 2.38 -0.352 2.14 Step Value (5 to 10) -0.21
19-Sep-13 1.853 -0.527 2.15 Step Value (0 to 5) -0.21
22-Oct-13 2.494 0.641 2.19 Step Value (0 to -5) -0.21
21-Nov-13 2.429 -0.065 2.16 Step Value (-5 to -10) -0.21
19-Dec-13 2.112 -0.317 2.09
6-Feb-14 0.503 -1.609 2.05
20-Feb-14 2.594 2.091 2.09
20-Mar-14 2.616 0.022 2.13
24-Apr-14 2.05 -0.566 2.14
27-May-14 2.425 0.375 2.20
24-Jun-14 2.774 0.349 2.25
22-Jul-14 1.377 -1.397 2.13
21-Aug-14 3.983 2.606 2.27
18-Sep-14 1.386 -2.597 2.23
Oct 21, 2014
(Sep)
2.452
1.066 2.23
Nov 20, 2014
(Oct)
3.255 0.803 2.29
Dec 18, 2014
(Nov)
3.868
0.613 2.44
Feb 03, 2015
(Dec)
1.515
-2.353 2.52
Feb 19, 2015
(Jan)
3.433 1.918 2.59
Mar 19, 2015
(Feb)
2.473
-0.96 2.58
Apr 23, 2015
(Mar)
2.525
0.052 2.62
May 28, 2015
(Apr)
2.856
0.331 2.66
Jun 18, 2015
(May)
3.433
0.577 2.71
Jul 21, 2015
(Jun)
3.578 0.145 2.90
Aug 20, 2015
(Jul)
3.741 0.163 2.88
Sep 22, 2015
(Aug)
2.869
-0.872 3.00
Oct 20, 2015
(Sep)
3.047
0.178 3.05
Nov 19, 2015
(Oct)
4.156 1.109 3.12
Dec 22, 2015
(Nov)
3.144
-1.012 3.06
Jan 26, 2016
(Dec)
2.544
-0.6 3.15
Feb 18, 2016
(Jan)
3.513 0.969 3.16
Mar 22, 2016
(Feb)
4.071
0.558 3.29
Apr 21, 2016
(Mar)
2.163
-1.908 3.26
May 24, 2016
(Apr)
2.504
0.341 3.23
Jun 21, 2016
(May)
3.786
1.282 3.26
Jul 21, 2016
(Jun)
3.546 -0.24 3.26
Aug 23, 2016
(Jul)
2.93 -0.616 3.19
Sep 20, 2016
(Aug)
3.025
0.095 3.20
Oct 20, 2016
(Sep)
4.374
1.349 3.31
Nov 22, 2016
(Oct)
2.678 -1.696 3.19
Dec 20, 2016
(Nov)
3.636
0.958 3.23
Jan 26, 2017
(Dec)
2.716
-0.92 3.25
Feb 21, 2017
(Jan)
4.733 2.017 3.35
Mar 21, 2017
(Feb)
3.105
-1.628 3.27
Apr 27, 2017
(Mar)
3.101
-0.004 3.34
May 23, 2017
(Apr)
1.968
-1.133 3.30
Jun 22, 2017
(May)
3.4
1.432 3.27
Jul 20, 2017
(Jun)
2.813 -0.587 3.21
Aug 22, 2017
(Jul)
3.511 0.698 3.26
Sep 21, 2017
(Aug)
2.173
-1.338 3.18
Oct 19, 2017
(Sep)
2.918
0.745 3.06
Nov 21, 2017
(Oct)
2.333 -0.585 3.03
Dec 21, 2017
(Nov)
2.633
0.3 2.95
Jan 30, 2018
(Dec)
2.632
-0.001 2.94
Feb 20, 2018
(Jan)
2.09 -0.542 2.72
Mar 20, 2018
(Feb)
3.138
1.048 2.73
Apr 24, 2018
(Mar)
1.768
-1.37 2.61
May 29, 2018
(Apr)
2.289
0.521 2.64
Jun 21, 2018
(May)
de
SCORING
Forecast 3.2 4 Volatility
Change 0.91 5 Dispersion
Average Score 5

Volatility Dispersion
2nd 4.29 10 2.15 10
4.13 9 1.94 9
3.96 8 1.72 8
3.80 7 1.51 7
3.63 6 1.30 6
1st 3.47 5 1.08 5
3.30 4 0.87 4
3.14 3 0.65 3
2.97 2 0.44 2
2.81 1 0.23 1
Ave 2.64 0 0.01 0
2.48 -1 -0.20 -1
2.31 -2 -0.42 -2
2.15 -3 -0.63 -3
1.98 -4 -0.84 -4
1st 1.82 -5 -1.06 -5
1.65 -6 -1.27 -6
1.49 -7 -1.49 -7
1.32 -8 -1.70 -8
1.16 -9 -1.92 -9
2nd 0.99 -10 -2.13 -10
 Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators
DATE ACTUAL CHANGE 12m AVE Standard Deviation
Jan 01, 2011
(Dec)
102.4
Previous ACTUAL 100.00
Feb 01, 2011
(Jan)
101.4 -1 Previous 12m AVE 106.59
Mar 01, 2011
(Feb)
99.4
-2 Average ACTUAL 100.36
Apr 01, 2011
(Mar)
99.3
-0.1 StDev ACTUAL 5.75
May 01, 2011
(Apr)
100
0.7 StDev CHANGE 2.85
Jun 01, 2011
(May)
99
-1
Jul 01, 2011
(Jun)
98.3 -0.7
Aug 01, 2011
(Jul)
89 -9.3 Volatility
Sep 01, 2011
(Aug)
84.8
-4.2 3rd StDev 123.85
Oct 01, 2011
(Sep)
83.5
-1.3 2nd StDev 118.10
Nov 01, 2011
(Oct)
84.4 0.9 1st StDev 112.34
Dec 01, 2011
(Nov)
85.1
0.7 93.88 Previous 12m AVE 106.59
Jan 01, 2012
(Dec)
87.2
2.1 92.62 1st StDev 100.84
Feb 01, 2012
(Jan)
97.7 10.5 92.31 2nd StDev 95.09
Mar 01, 2012
(Feb)
99.3
1.6 92.30 3rd StDev 89.33
Apr 01, 2012
(Mar)
100.7
1.4 92.42
May 01, 2012
(Apr)
98.5
-2.2 92.29 Step Value (5- to 10) -1.15
Jun 01, 2012
(May)
97.1
-1.4 92.13 Step Value (0 to 5) -1.15
Jul 01, 2012
(Jun)
95.4 -1.7 91.89 Step Value (0 to -5) -1.15
Aug 01, 2012
(Jul)
97.6 2.2 92.61 Step Value (-5 to -10) -1.15
Sep 01, 2012
(Aug)
98.3
0.7 93.73
Oct 01, 2012
(Sep)
99
0.7 95.02
Nov 01, 2012
(Oct)
102 3 96.49 Dispersion
Dec 01, 2012
(Nov)
102.7
0.7 97.96 3rd StDev 8.51
Jan 01, 2013
(Dec)
103.5
0.8 99.32 2nd StDev 5.67
Feb 01, 2013
(Jan)
101.6 -1.9 99.64 1st StDev 2.82
Mar 01, 2013
(Feb)
104.1
2.5 100.04 Average CHANGE -0.03
Apr 01, 2013
(Mar)
103.3
-0.8 100.26 1st StDev -2.87
May 01, 2013
(Apr)
101.9
-1.4 100.54 2nd StDev -5.72
Jun 01, 2013
(May)
101.8
-0.1 100.93 3rd StDev -8.57
Jul 01, 2013
(Jun)
102.2 0.4 101.50
Aug 01, 2013
(Jul)
105.8 3.6 102.18 Step Value (5 to 10) -0.57
Sep 01, 2013
(Aug)
105.9
0.1 102.82 Step Value (0 to 5) -0.57
Oct 01, 2013
(Sep)
107.1
1.2 103.49 Step Value (0 to -5) -0.57
Nov 01, 2013
(Oct)
104.3 -2.8 103.68 Step Value (-5 to -10) -0.57
Dec 01, 2013
(Nov)
104.5
0.2 103.83
Jan 01, 2014
(Dec)
102.9
-1.6 103.78
Feb 01, 2014
(Jan)
104.3 1.4 104.01
Mar 01, 2014
(Feb)
105.5
1.2 104.13
30-Apr-14 102 -3.5 104.02
30-May-14 99.8 -2.2 103.84
27-Jun-14 100.4 0.6 103.73
30-Jul-14 98.1 -2.3 103.38
29-Aug-14 99.5 1.4 102.86
Sep 30, 2014
(Sep)
99.1
-0.4 102.29
Oct 30, 2014
(Oct)
99.8 0.7 101.68
Nov 28, 2014
(Nov)
98.7
-1.1 101.22
Dec 24, 2014
(Dec)
98.7
0 100.73
Jan 30, 2015
(Jan)
97
-1.7 100.24
Feb 27, 2015
(Feb)
90.1 -6.9 99.06
Mar 30, 2015
(Mar)
90.8
0.7 97.83
Apr 30, 2015
(Apr)
89.5 -1.3 96.79
May 29, 2015
(May)
93.1
3.6 96.23
Jun 30, 2015
(Jun)
89.7
-3.4 95.34
Jul 30, 2015 (Jul) 99.8 10.1 95.48
Aug 31, 2015
(Aug)
100.7
0.9 95.58
Sep 30, 2015
(Sep)
100.4
-0.3 95.69
Oct 30, 2015
(Oct)
99.8 -0.6 95.69
Nov 30, 2015
(Nov)
97.9
-1.9 95.63
Dec 23, 2015
(Dec)
96.6
-1.3 95.45
Jan 29, 2016
(Jan)
100.3
3.7 95.73
Feb 29, 2016
(Feb)
102.4 2.1 96.75
Mar 30, 2016
(Mar)
102.5
0.1 97.73
Apr 29, 2016
(Apr)
102.7 0.2 98.83
May 30, 2016
(May)
102.9
0.2 99.64
Jun 30, 2016
(Jun)
102.4
-0.5 100.70
Jul 29, 2016 (Jul) 102.7 0.3 100.94
Aug 30, 2016
(Aug)
99.8
-2.9 100.87
Sep 30, 2016
(Sep)
101.3
1.5 100.94
Oct 28, 2016
(Oct)
104.7 3.4 101.35
Nov 30, 2016
(Nov)
102.2
-2.5 101.71
Dec 23, 2016
(Dec)
102.2
0 102.18
Jan 30, 2017
(Jan)
101.7
-0.5 102.29
Feb 28, 2017
(Feb)
107.2 5.5 102.69
Mar 30, 2017
(Mar)
107.6
0.4 103.12
Apr 28, 2017
(Apr)
106 -1.6 103.39
May 30, 2017
(May)
101.6
-4.4 103.28
Jun 30, 2017
(Jun)
105.5
3.9 103.54
Jul 28, 2017 (Jul) 106.8 1.3 103.88
Aug 30, 2017
(Aug)
104.1
-2.7 104.24
Sep 29, 2017
(Sep)
105.8
1.7 104.62
Oct 30, 2017
(Oct)
109.1 3.3 104.98
Nov 30, 2017
(Nov)
110.3
1.2 105.66
Dec 22, 2017
(Dec)
111.3
1 106.42
Jan 30, 2018
(Jan)
106.9
-4.4 106.85
Feb 28, 2018
(Feb)
108 1.1 106.92
Mar 29, 2018
(Mar)
106
-2 106.78
Apr 30, 2018
(Apr)
105.3 -0.7 106.73
May 30, 2018
(May)
100
-5.3 106.59
Jun 29, 2018
(Jun)
g Indicators
SCORING
Forecast 100.33 -5 Volatility
Change 0.33 1 Dispersion
Average Score -2

Volatility Dispersion
2nd 118.10 10 5.67 10
116.95 9 5.10 9
115.80 8 4.53 8
114.65 7 3.96 7
113.49 6 3.39 6
1st 112.34 5 2.82 5
111.19 4 2.25 4
110.04 3 1.68 3
108.89 2 1.11 2
107.74 1 0.54 1
Ave 106.59 0 -0.03 0
105.44 -1 -0.60 -1
104.29 -2 -1.17 -2
103.14 -3 -1.74 -3
101.99 -4 -2.30 -4
1st 100.84 -5 -2.87 -5
99.69 -6 -3.44 -6
98.54 -7 -4.01 -7
97.39 -8 -4.58 -8
 96.24 -9 -5.15 -9
2nd 95.09 -10 -5.72 -10
 Retail Sales yy
DATE ACTUAL CHANGE 12m AVE Standard Deviation
5/15/2007 7:15 3.2 Previous ACTUAL 2.20
7/17/2007 7:15 7.2 4 Previous 12m AVE -0.32
8/15/2007 7:15 1 -6.2 Average ACTUAL 1.15
9/19/2007 7:15 3.3 2.3 StDev ACTUAL 2.96
10/16/2007 7:15 3.8 0.5 StDev CHANGE 4.20
11/16/2007 8:15 7.1 3.3
12/18/2007 8:15 2.2 -4.9
1/22/2008 8:15 2.9 0.7 Volatility
2/18/2008 8:15 1.2 -1.7 3rd StDev 8.56
3/17/2008 8:15 1.3 0.1 2nd StDev 5.60
4/17/2008 7:20 3.3 2 1st StDev 2.64
5/16/2008 7:15 9.7 6.4 3.85 Previous 12m AVE -0.32
6/16/2008 7:15 -9.4 -19.1 2.80 1st StDev -3.29
7/16/2008 7:15 7.4 16.8 2.82 2nd StDev -6.25
8/18/2008 7:15 0.7 -6.7 2.79 3rd StDev -9.21
9/15/2008 7:15 2.3 1.6 2.71
10/16/2008 7:15 0 -2.3 2.39 Step Value (5- to 10) -0.59
11/18/2008 8:15 6.4 6.4 2.33 Step Value (0 to 5) -0.59
12/18/2008 8:15 2.9 -3.5 2.39 Step Value (0 to -5) -0.59
1/19/2009 8:15 2.5 -0.4 2.36 Step Value (-5 to -10) -0.59
2/17/2009 8:15 -0.4 -2.9 2.23
3/18/2009 8:15 0.9 1.3 2.19
4/17/2009 7:15 0 -0.9 1.92 Dispersion
5/15/2009 7:15 -6.7 -6.7 0.55 3rd StDev 12.58
6/17/2009 7:15 9.4 16.1 2.12 2nd StDev 8.38
7/15/2009 7:15 -1.8 -11.2 1.35 1st StDev 4.19
8/17/2009 7:15 0.5 2.3 1.33 Average CHANGE -0.01
9/16/2009 7:15 0.2 -0.3 1.16 1st StDev -4.20
10/16/2009 7:15 -1.3 -1.5 1.05 2nd StDev -8.40
11/17/2009 8:15 -2.1 -0.8 0.34 3rd StDev -12.59
12/7/2009 8:15 3.2 5.3 0.37
1/11/2010 8:15 -0.1 -3.3 0.15 Step Value (5 to 10) -0.84
2/8/2010 8:15 3.9 4 0.51 Step Value (0 to 5) -0.84
 3/8/2010 8:15 3.7 -0.2 0.74 Step Value (0 to -5) -0.84
4/7/2010 7:15 2.7 -1 0.97 Step Value (-5 to -10) -0.84
5/7/2010 7:15 4 1.3 1.86
6/2/2010 7:15 1.3 -2.7 1.18
7/5/2010 7:15 3.9 2.6 1.66
8/2/2010 7:15 1 -2.9 1.70
9/2/2010 8:15 4.7 3.7 2.08
10/1/2010 8:15 0.1 -4.6 2.19
11/3/2010 8:15 4.1 4 2.71
12/2/2010 8:15 3.5 -0.6 2.73
1/10/2011 9:00 1.8 -1.7 2.89
2/1/2011 8:15 -0.8 -2.6 2.50
3/3/2011 8:15 -2.4 -1.6 1.99
4/1/2011 7:15 1.8 4.2 1.92
5/2/2011 7:15 -0.2 -2 1.57
6/1/2011 7:15 7.8 8 2.11
7/4/2011 7:15 -3.9 -11.7 1.46
8/2/2011 7:15 7.9 11.8 2.03
9/1/2011 7:15 2.9 -5 1.88
10/3/2011 7:15 -0.8 -3.7 1.81
10/31/2011 8:15 -1.4 -0.6 1.35
12/2/2011 8:15 0.1 1.5 1.07
1/9/2012 8:15 1.8 1.7 1.07
2/1/2012 8:15 1.7 -0.1 1.28
3/5/2012 8:15 4.7 3 1.87
4/2/2012 7:15 0.8 -3.9 1.78
5/4/2012 7:15 4.7 3.9 2.19
6/1/2012 7:15 0.2 -4.5 1.56
7/2/2012 7:15 6.4 6.2 2.42
8/2/2012 7:15 3.3 -3.1 2.03
9/3/2012 7:15 2.9 -0.4 2.03
10/1/2012 7:15 6 3.1 2.60
11/1/2012 8:15 5.4 -0.6 3.17
12/3/2012 8:15 2.7 -2.7 3.38
1/16/2013 8:15 3 0.3 3.48
2/8/2013 8:15 4.7 1.7 3.73
3/11/2013 8:15 2 -2.7 3.51
4/9/2013 7:15 2.3 0.3 3.63
5/13/2013 7:15 -0.8 -3.1 3.18
6/10/2013 7:15 3.1 3.9 3.42
7/9/2013 7:15 1.5 -1.6 3.01
8/12/2013 7:15 2.3 0.8 2.93
9/9/2013 7:15 0.6 -1.7 2.73
10/8/2013 7:15 2.5 1.9 2.44
11/8/2013 8:15 1 -1.5 2.07
12/9/2013 8:15 1.6 0.6 1.98
1/15/2014 8:15 4.2 2.6 2.08
2/7/2014 8:15 2.5 -1.7 1.90
3/10/2014 8:15 -0.1 -2.6 1.72
4/8/2014 7:15 1.2 1.3 1.63
5/12/2014 7:15 3.4 2.2 1.98
6/10/2014 7:15 0.8 -2.6 1.79
7/8/2014 7:15 -0.5 -1.3 1.63
8/11/2014 7:15 3.3 3.8 1.71
9/8/2014 7:15 -0.3 -3.6 1.63
10/7/2014 7:15 1.4 1.7 1.54
11/7/2014 8:15 0.5 -0.9 1.50
12/8/2014 8:15 0.3 -0.2 1.39
1/16/2015 8:15 -1.2 -1.5 0.94
2/6/2015 8:15 2.2 3.4 0.92
3/16/2015 8:15 -0.3 -2.5 0.90
4/17/2015 7:15 -2.7 -2.4 0.58
5/18/2015 7:15 -2.8 -0.1 0.06
6/15/2015 7:15 1.6 4.4 0.13
7/16/2015 7:15 -1.8 -3.4 0.02
8/17/2015 7:15 -0.9 0.9 -0.33
9/14/2015 7:15 -0.1 0.8 -0.32
10/1/2015 7:15 -0.3 -0.2 -0.46
11/2/2015 8:15 0.2 0.5 -0.48
12/1/2015 8:15 -0.8 -1 -0.58
1/11/2016 8:15 -3.1 -2.3 -0.73
2/2/2016 8:15 -1.6 1.5 -1.05
 3/1/2016 8:15 0.2 1.8 -1.01
4/1/2016 7:15 -0.2 -0.4 -0.80
5/2/2016 7:15 -1.3 -1.1 -0.67
6/1/2016 7:15 -1.9 -0.6 -0.97
7/1/2016 7:15 -1.6 0.3 -0.95
8/2/2016 7:15 -3.9 -2.3 -1.20
9/1/2016 7:15 -2.2 1.7 -1.38
10/3/2016 7:15 -3 -0.8 -1.60
11/1/2016 8:15 -2.3 0.7 -1.81
12/1/2016 8:15 -0.5 1.8 -1.78
1/9/2017 8:15 0.9 1.4 -1.45
2/2/2017 8:15 -3.5 -4.4 -1.61
3/2/2017 8:15 -1.4 2.1 -1.74
4/3/2017 7:15 0.6 2 -1.68
5/1/2017 7:15 2.1 1.5 -1.39
6/1/2017 7:15 -1.2 -3.3 -1.33
7/3/2017 7:15 -0.3 0.9 -1.22
8/2/2017 7:15 1.5 1.8 -0.77
9/1/2017 7:15 -0.7 -2.2 -0.65
10/2/2017 7:15 -0.2 0.5 -0.42
11/2/2017 8:15 -0.4 -0.2 -0.26
11/30/2017 8:15 -3 -2.6 -0.47
1/9/2018 8:15 -0.2 2.8 -0.56
2/1/2018 8:15 0.6 0.8 -0.22
3/1/2018 8:15 -1.4 -2 -0.22
4/3/2018 7:15 -0.2 1.2 -0.28
5/2/2018 7:15 -1.8 -1.6 -0.61
5/31/2018 7:15 2.2 4 -0.33
y
SCORING
Forecast 0.2 1 Volatility
Change -2.00 -2 Dispersion
Average Score -1

Volatility Dispersion
2nd 5.60 10 8.38 10
5.00 9 7.54 9
4.41 8 6.71 8
3.82 7 5.87 7
3.23 6 5.03 6
1st 2.64 5 4.19 5
2.04 4 3.35 4
1.45 3 2.51 3
0.86 2 1.67 2
0.27 1 0.83 1
Ave -0.32 0 -0.01 0
-0.92 -1 -0.85 -1
-1.51 -2 -1.69 -2
-2.10 -3 -2.52 -3
-2.69 -4 -3.36 -4
1st -3.29 -5 -4.20 -5
-3.88 -6 -5.04 -6
-4.47 -7 -5.88 -7
-5.06 -8 -6.72 -8
-5.65 -9 -7.56 -9
2nd -6.25 -10 -8.40 -10
 SVME Manufacturing PMI
DATE ACTUAL CHANGE 12m AVE Standard Deviation
5/2/2007 7:30 61.9 Previous ACTUAL 62.40
6/1/2007 7:30 58.9 -3 Previous 12m AVE 62.78
9/3/2007 7:30 65.1 6.2 Average ACTUAL 53.69
10/1/2007 7:30 57.6 -7.5 StDev ACTUAL 7.36
11/1/2007 8:30 60.7 3.1 StDev CHANGE 2.90
12/3/2007 8:30 63.4 2.7
1/3/2008 8:30 60.8 -2.6
2/1/2008 8:30 61.6 0.8 Volatility
3/3/2008 8:30 60.5 -1.1 3rd StDev 84.85
4/1/2008 7:30 55.3 -5.2 2nd StDev 77.49
5/2/2008 7:30 56.7 1.4 1st StDev 70.13
6/2/2008 7:30 55.7 -1 59.85 Previous 12m AVE 62.78
7/1/2008 7:30 54.9 -0.8 59.27 1st StDev 55.42
8/4/2008 7:30 54.1 -0.8 58.87 2nd StDev 48.06
9/1/2008 7:30 52.5 -1.6 57.82 3rd StDev 40.70
10/1/2008 7:30 47.8 -4.7 57.00
11/3/2008 8:30 35.2 -12.6 54.88 Step Value (5- to 10) -1.47
12/1/2008 8:30 35.2 0 52.53 Step Value (0 to 5) -1.47
1/5/2009 8:30 36.5 1.3 50.50 Step Value (0 to -5) -1.47
2/2/2009 8:30 35 -1.5 48.28 Step Value (-5 to -10) -1.47
3/2/2009 8:30 32.6 -2.4 45.96
4/1/2009 7:30 32.6 0 44.07
5/4/2009 7:30 34.7 2.1 42.23 Dispersion
6/2/2009 7:30 39.8 5.1 40.91 3rd StDev 8.69
7/1/2009 7:30 41.8 2 39.82 2nd StDev 5.80
8/3/2009 7:30 44.3 2.5 39.00 1st StDev 2.90
9/1/2009 7:30 50.2 5.9 38.81 Average CHANGE 0.00
10/1/2009 7:30 54.3 4.1 39.35 1st StDev -2.89
11/2/2009 8:30 54 -0.3 40.92 2nd StDev -5.79
12/1/2009 8:30 56.9 2.9 42.73 3rd StDev -8.68
1/4/2010 8:30 53.7 -3.2 44.16
2/1/2010 8:30 56 2.3 45.91 Step Value (5 to 10) -0.58
3/1/2010 8:30 57.4 1.4 47.98 Step Value (0 to 5) -0.58
 4/1/2010 7:30 65.5 8.1 50.72 Step Value (0 to -5) -0.58
5/3/2010 7:30 65.9 0.4 53.32 Step Value (-5 to -10) -0.58
6/1/2010 7:30 66.4 0.5 55.53
7/1/2010 7:30 65.7 -0.7 57.53
8/2/2010 7:30 66.9 1.2 59.41
9/1/2010 7:30 61.4 -5.5 60.34
10/1/2010 7:30 59.7 -1.7 60.79
11/1/2010 8:30 59.2 -0.5 61.23
12/1/2010 8:30 61.8 2.6 61.63
1/3/2011 8:30 61.2 -0.6 62.26
2/1/2011 8:30 60.5 -0.7 62.63
3/1/2011 8:30 63.5 3 63.14
4/1/2011 7:30 59.3 -4.2 62.63
5/2/2011 7:30 58.4 -0.9 62.00
6/1/2011 7:30 59.2 0.8 61.40
7/1/2011 7:30 53.4 -5.8 60.38
8/2/2011 7:30 53.5 0.1 59.26
9/1/2011 7:30 51.7 -1.8 58.45
10/3/2011 7:30 48.2 -3.5 57.49
11/1/2011 8:30 46.9 -1.3 56.47
12/1/2011 8:30 44.8 -2.1 55.05
1/3/2012 8:30 49.1 4.3 54.04
2/1/2012 8:30 47.3 -1.8 52.94
3/1/2012 8:30 49 1.7 51.73
4/2/2012 7:30 51.1 2.1 51.05
5/2/2012 7:30 46.9 -4.2 50.09
6/1/2012 7:30 45.4 -1.5 48.94
7/2/2012 7:30 48.1 2.7 48.50
8/2/2012 7:30 48.6 0.5 48.09
9/3/2012 7:30 46.7 -1.9 47.68
10/1/2012 7:30 43.6 -3.1 47.29
11/1/2012 8:30 46.1 2.5 47.23
12/3/2012 8:30 48.5 2.4 47.53
1/3/2013 8:30 49.2 0.7 47.54
2/1/2013 8:30 52.5 3.3 47.98
3/1/2013 8:30 50.8 -1.7 48.13
 4/2/2013 7:30 48.3 -2.5 47.89
5/2/2013 7:30 50.2 1.9 48.17
6/3/2013 7:30 52.2 2 48.73
7/1/2013 7:30 51.9 -0.3 49.05
8/2/2013 7:30 57.4 5.5 49.78
9/2/2013 7:30 54.6 -2.8 50.44
10/1/2013 7:30 55.3 0.7 51.42
11/1/2013 8:30 54.2 -1.1 52.09
12/2/2013 8:30 56.5 2.3 52.76
1/3/2014 8:30 55 -1.5 53.24
2/3/2014 8:30 56.1 1.1 53.54
3/3/2014 8:30 57.6 1.5 54.11
4/1/2014 7:30 54.4 -3.2 54.62
5/2/2014 7:30 55.8 1.4 55.08
6/2/2014 7:30 52.5 -3.3 55.11
7/1/2014 7:30 54 1.5 55.28
8/4/2014 7:30 54.3 0.3 55.03
9/1/2014 7:30 52.9 -1.4 54.88
10/1/2014 7:30 50.4 -2.5 54.48
11/3/2014 8:30 55.3 4.9 54.57
12/1/2014 8:30 52.1 -3.2 54.20
1/5/2015 8:30 53.6 1.5 54.08
2/2/2015 8:30 48.2 -5.4 53.43
3/2/2015 8:30 47.3 -0.9 52.57
4/1/2015 7:30 47.9 0.6 52.03
5/4/2015 7:30 47.9 0 51.37
6/1/2015 7:30 49.4 1.5 51.11
7/1/2015 7:30 50 0.6 50.78
8/3/2015 7:30 48.7 -1.3 50.31
9/1/2015 7:30 52.2 3.5 50.25
10/1/2015 7:30 49.5 -2.7 50.18
11/2/2015 8:30 50.7 1.2 49.79
12/1/2015 8:30 49.7 -1 49.59
1/4/2016 8:30 52.1 2.4 49.47
2/1/2016 8:30 50 -2.1 49.62
3/1/2016 8:30 51.6 1.6 49.98
 4/1/2016 7:30 53.2 1.6 50.42
5/2/2016 7:30 54.7 1.5 50.98
6/1/2016 7:30 55.8 1.1 51.52
7/1/2016 7:30 51.6 -4.2 51.65
8/2/2016 7:30 50.1 -1.5 51.77
9/1/2016 7:30 51 0.9 51.67
10/3/2016 7:30 53.2 2.2 51.98
11/1/2016 8:30 54.7 1.5 52.31
12/1/2016 8:30 56.6 1.9 52.88
1/3/2017 8:30 56 -0.6 53.21
2/1/2017 8:30 54.6 -1.4 53.59
3/1/2017 8:30 57.8 3.2 54.11
4/3/2017 7:30 58.6 0.8 54.56
5/2/2017 7:30 57.4 -1.2 54.78
6/1/2017 7:30 55.6 -1.8 54.77
7/3/2017 7:30 60.1 4.5 55.48
8/2/2017 7:30 60.9 0.8 56.38
9/1/2017 7:30 61.2 0.3 57.23
10/2/2017 7:30 61.7 0.5 57.93
11/1/2017 8:30 62 0.3 58.54
12/1/2017 8:30 65.1 3.1 59.25
1/3/2018 8:30 65.2 0.1 60.02
2/1/2018 8:30 65.3 0.1 60.91
3/1/2018 8:30 65.5 0.2 61.55
4/3/2018 7:30 60.3 -5.2 61.69
5/2/2018 7:30 63.6 3.3 62.21
6/1/2018 7:30 62.4 -1.2 62.78
ng PMI
SCORING
Forecast 62.7 0 Volatility
Change 0.30 1 Dispersion
Average Score 1

Volatility Dispersion
2nd 77.49 10 5.80 10
76.02 9 5.22 9
74.55 8 4.64 8
73.07 7 4.06 7
71.60 6 3.48 6
1st 70.13 5 2.90 5
68.66 4 2.32 4
67.19 3 1.74 3
65.72 2 1.16 2
64.25 1 0.58 1
Ave 62.78 0 0.00 0
61.30 -1 -0.58 -1
59.83 -2 -1.15 -2
58.36 -3 -1.73 -3
56.89 -4 -2.31 -4
1st 55.42 -5 -2.89 -5
53.95 -6 -3.47 -6
52.48 -7 -4.05 -7
51.00 -8 -4.63 -8
49.53 -9 -5.21 -9
2nd 48.06 -10 -5.79 -10
 Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators
DATE ACTUAL CHANGE 12m AVE Standard Deviation
1/6/2012 7:00 254.3 Previous ACTUAL
2/7/2012 7:00 229.4 -24.9 Previous 12m AVE
3/7/2012 7:00 227.2 -2.2 Average ACTUAL
4/5/2012 7:00 237.5 10.3 StDev ACTUAL
5/7/2012 7:00 237.6 0.1 StDev CHANGE
6/7/2012 7:00 305.9 68.3
7/6/2012 7:00 365.1 59.2
8/7/2012 7:00 408.6 43.5 Volatility
9/7/2012 7:00 418.4 9.8 3rd StDev
10/5/2012 7:00 429.5 11.1 2nd StDev
11/7/2012 8:00 426.8 -2.7 1st StDev
12/7/2012 8:00 427.4 0.6 330.64 Previous 12m AVE
1/7/2013 8:00 427.2 -0.2 345.05 1st StDev
2/7/2013 8:00 429.5 2.3 361.72 2nd StDev
3/7/2013 8:00 430 0.5 378.63 3rd StDev
4/5/2013 7:00 438.3 8.3 395.36
5/7/2013 7:00 436.1 -2.2 411.90 Step Value (5- to 10)
6/7/2013 7:00 441.1 5 423.17 Step Value (0 to 5)
7/5/2013 7:00 434.8 -6.3 428.97 Step Value (0 to -5)
8/7/2013 7:00 434.9 0.1 431.17 Step Value (-5 to -10)
9/6/2013 7:00 434.2 -0.7 432.48
10/7/2013 7:00 432.4 -1.8 432.72
11/7/2013 8:00 434.7 2.3 433.38 Dispersion
12/6/2013 8:00 435.7 1 434.08 3rd StDev
1/7/2014 8:00 435.2 -0.5 434.74 2nd StDev
2/7/2014 8:00 437.7 2.5 435.43 1st StDev
3/7/2014 8:00 433.5 -4.2 435.72 Average CHANGE
4/7/2014 7:00 437.9 4.4 435.68 1st StDev
5/7/2014 7:00 438.9 1 435.92 2nd StDev
6/6/2014 7:00 444.4 5.5 436.19 3rd StDev
7/7/2014 7:00 449.6 5.2 437.42
8/7/2014 7:00 453.4 3.8 438.97 Step Value (5 to 10)
9/5/2014 7:00 453.8 0.4 440.60 Step Value (0 to 5)
10/7/2014 7:00 462.2 8.4 443.08 Step Value (0 to -5)
11/7/2014 8:00 460.6 -1.6 445.24 Step Value (-5 to -10)
12/5/2014 8:00 462.4 1.8 447.47
1/7/2015 8:00 495.1 32.7 452.46
2/6/2015 8:00 498.4 3.3 457.52
3/6/2015 8:00 509.3 10.9 463.83
4/7/2015 7:00 522.3 13 470.87
5/7/2015 7:00 521.9 -0.4 477.78
6/5/2015 7:00 517.5 -4.4 483.88
7/7/2015 7:00 516.2 -1.3 489.43
8/7/2015 7:00 531.8 15.6 495.96
9/7/2015 7:00 540 8.2 503.14
10/7/2015 7:00 542 2 509.79
11/6/2015 8:00 551 9 517.32
12/7/2015 8:00 563 12 525.71
1/7/2016 8:00 560 -3 531.12
2/5/2016 8:00 575 15 537.50
3/7/2016 8:00 571 -4 542.64
4/7/2016 7:00 576 5 547.12
5/6/2016 7:00 588 12 552.63
6/7/2016 7:00 602 14 559.67
7/7/2016 7:00 609 7 567.40
8/5/2016 7:00 615 6 574.33
9/7/2016 7:00 627 12 581.58
10/7/2016 7:00 628 1 588.75
11/7/2016 8:00 630 2 595.33
12/7/2016 8:00 648 18 602.42
1/6/2017 8:00 645 -3 609.50
2/7/2017 8:00 644 -1 615.25
4/7/2017 7:00 683 39 624.58
5/5/2017 7:00 696 13 634.58
6/7/2017 7:00 694 -2 643.42
7/7/2017 7:00 693 -1 651.00
8/7/2017 7:00 714 21 659.75
9/7/2017 7:00 717 3 668.25
10/6/2017 7:00 724 7 676.33
11/7/2017 8:00 742 18 685.83
12/7/2017 8:00 738 -4 694.83
1/9/2018 8:00 -738 699.09
2/7/2018 8:00 731 731 706.91
3/7/2018 8:00 733 2 715.00
4/6/2018 7:00 738 5 720.00
5/7/2018 7:00 757 19 725.55
6/7/2018 7:00 741 -16 729.82
 OF Leading Indicators
rd Deviation SCORING
741.00 Forecast 735.6 1 Volatility
729.82 Change -5.40 0 Dispersion
519.39 Average Score 1
135.30
120.75

olatility Volatility Dispersion

1135.71 2nd 1000.41 10 247.90 10
1000.41 973.35 9 223.75 9
865.11 946.29 8 199.60 8
729.82 919.23 7 175.45 7
594.52 892.17 6 151.30 6
459.23 1st 865.11 5 127.15 5
323.93 838.06 4 103.00 4
811.00 3 78.85 3
-27.06 783.94 2 54.70 2
-27.06 756.88 1 30.55 1
-27.06 Ave 729.82 0 6.40 0
-27.06 702.76 -1 -17.75 -1
675.70 -2 -41.90 -2
648.64 -3 -66.05 -3
621.58 -4 -90.20 -4
368.65 1st 594.52 -5 -114.35 -5
247.90 567.46 -6 -138.50 -6
127.15 540.40 -7 -162.65 -7
6.40 513.34 -8 -186.80 -8
-114.35 486.28 -9 -210.95 -9
-235.10 2nd 459.23 -10 -235.10 -10
-355.85

-24.15
-24.15
-24.15
-24.15
 Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators
DATE ACTUAL CHANGE 12m AVE Standard Deviation
Jan 01, 2011
(Dec)
102.4
Previous ACTUAL 100.00
Feb 01, 2011
(Jan)
101.4 -1 Previous 12m AVE 106.59
Mar 01, 2011
(Feb)
99.4
-2 Average ACTUAL 100.36
Apr 01, 2011
(Mar)
99.3
-0.1 StDev ACTUAL 5.75
May 01, 2011
(Apr)
100
0.7 StDev CHANGE 2.85
Jun 01, 2011
(May)
99
-1
Jul 01, 2011
(Jun)
98.3 -0.7
Aug 01, 2011
(Jul)
89 -9.3 Volatility
Sep 01, 2011
(Aug)
84.8
-4.2 3rd StDev 123.85
Oct 01, 2011
(Sep)
83.5
-1.3 2nd StDev 118.10
Nov 01, 2011
(Oct)
84.4 0.9 1st StDev 112.34
Dec 01, 2011
(Nov)
85.1
0.7 93.88 Previous 12m AVE 106.59
Jan 01, 2012
(Dec)
87.2
2.1 92.62 1st StDev 100.84
Feb 01, 2012
(Jan)
97.7 10.5 92.31 2nd StDev 95.09
Mar 01, 2012
(Feb)
99.3
1.6 92.30 3rd StDev 89.33
Apr 01, 2012
(Mar)
100.7
1.4 92.42
May 01, 2012
(Apr)
98.5
-2.2 92.29 Step Value (5- to 10) -1.15
Jun 01, 2012
(May)
97.1
-1.4 92.13 Step Value (0 to 5) -1.15
Jul 01, 2012
(Jun)
95.4 -1.7 91.89 Step Value (0 to -5) -1.15
Aug 01, 2012
(Jul)
97.6 2.2 92.61 Step Value (-5 to -10) -1.15
Sep 01, 2012
(Aug)
98.3
0.7 93.73
Oct 01, 2012
(Sep)
99
0.7 95.02
Nov 01, 2012
(Oct)
102 3 96.49 Dispersion
Dec 01, 2012
(Nov)
102.7
0.7 97.96 3rd StDev 8.51
Jan 01, 2013
(Dec)
103.5
0.8 99.32 2nd StDev 5.67
Feb 01, 2013
(Jan)
101.6 -1.9 99.64 1st StDev 2.82
Mar 01, 2013
(Feb)
104.1
2.5 100.04 Average CHANGE -0.03
Apr 01, 2013
(Mar)
103.3
-0.8 100.26 1st StDev -2.87
May 01, 2013
(Apr)
101.9
-1.4 100.54 2nd StDev -5.72
Jun 01, 2013
(May)
101.8
-0.1 100.93 3rd StDev -8.57
Jul 01, 2013
(Jun)
102.2 0.4 101.50
Aug 01, 2013
(Jul)
105.8 3.6 102.18 Step Value (5 to 10) -0.57
Sep 01, 2013
(Aug)
105.9
0.1 102.82 Step Value (0 to 5) -0.57
Oct 01, 2013
(Sep)
107.1
1.2 103.49 Step Value (0 to -5) -0.57
Nov 01, 2013
(Oct)
104.3 -2.8 103.68 Step Value (-5 to -10) -0.57
Dec 01, 2013
(Nov)
104.5
0.2 103.83
Jan 01, 2014
(Dec)
102.9
-1.6 103.78
Feb 01, 2014
(Jan)
104.3 1.4 104.01
Mar 01, 2014
(Feb)
105.5
1.2 104.13
30-Apr-14 102 -3.5 104.02
30-May-14 99.8 -2.2 103.84
27-Jun-14 100.4 0.6 103.73
30-Jul-14 98.1 -2.3 103.38
29-Aug-14 99.5 1.4 102.86
Sep 30, 2014
(Sep)
99.1
-0.4 102.29
Oct 30, 2014
(Oct)
99.8 0.7 101.68
Nov 28, 2014
(Nov)
98.7
-1.1 101.22
Dec 24, 2014
(Dec)
98.7
0 100.73
Jan 30, 2015
(Jan)
97
-1.7 100.24
Feb 27, 2015
(Feb)
90.1 -6.9 99.06
Mar 30, 2015
(Mar)
90.8
0.7 97.83
Apr 30, 2015
(Apr)
89.5 -1.3 96.79
May 29, 2015
(May)
93.1
3.6 96.23
Jun 30, 2015
(Jun)
89.7
-3.4 95.34
Jul 30, 2015 (Jul) 99.8 10.1 95.48
Aug 31, 2015
(Aug)
100.7
0.9 95.58
Sep 30, 2015
(Sep)
100.4
-0.3 95.69
Oct 30, 2015
(Oct)
99.8 -0.6 95.69
Nov 30, 2015
(Nov)
97.9
-1.9 95.63
Dec 23, 2015
(Dec)
96.6
-1.3 95.45
Jan 29, 2016
(Jan)
100.3
3.7 95.73
Feb 29, 2016
(Feb)
102.4 2.1 96.75
Mar 30, 2016
(Mar)
102.5
0.1 97.73
Apr 29, 2016
(Apr)
102.7 0.2 98.83
May 30, 2016
(May)
102.9
0.2 99.64
Jun 30, 2016
(Jun)
102.4
-0.5 100.70
Jul 29, 2016 (Jul) 102.7 0.3 100.94
Aug 30, 2016
(Aug)
99.8
-2.9 100.87
Sep 30, 2016
(Sep)
101.3
1.5 100.94
Oct 28, 2016
(Oct)
104.7 3.4 101.35
Nov 30, 2016
(Nov)
102.2
-2.5 101.71
Dec 23, 2016
(Dec)
102.2
0 102.18
Jan 30, 2017
(Jan)
101.7
-0.5 102.29
Feb 28, 2017
(Feb)
107.2 5.5 102.69
Mar 30, 2017
(Mar)
107.6
0.4 103.12
Apr 28, 2017
(Apr)
106 -1.6 103.39
May 30, 2017
(May)
101.6
-4.4 103.28
Jun 30, 2017
(Jun)
105.5
3.9 103.54
Jul 28, 2017 (Jul) 106.8 1.3 103.88
Aug 30, 2017
(Aug)
104.1
-2.7 104.24
Sep 29, 2017
(Sep)
105.8
1.7 104.62
Oct 30, 2017
(Oct)
109.1 3.3 104.98
Nov 30, 2017
(Nov)
110.3
1.2 105.66
Dec 22, 2017
(Dec)
111.3
1 106.42
Jan 30, 2018
(Jan)
106.9
-4.4 106.85
Feb 28, 2018
(Feb)
108 1.1 106.92
Mar 29, 2018
(Mar)
106
-2 106.78
Apr 30, 2018
(Apr)
105.3 -0.7 106.73
May 30, 2018
(May)
100
-5.3 106.59
Jun 29, 2018
(Jun)
g Indicators
SCORING
Forecast 100.33 -5 Volatility
Change 0.33 1 Dispersion
Average Score -2

Volatility Dispersion
2nd 118.10 10 5.67 10
116.95 9 5.10 9
115.80 8 4.53 8
114.65 7 3.96 7
113.49 6 3.39 6
1st 112.34 5 2.82 5
111.19 4 2.25 4
110.04 3 1.68 3
108.89 2 1.11 2
107.74 1 0.54 1
Ave 106.59 0 -0.03 0
105.44 -1 -0.60 -1
104.29 -2 -1.17 -2
103.14 -3 -1.74 -3
101.99 -4 -2.30 -4
1st 100.84 -5 -2.87 -5
99.69 -6 -3.44 -6
98.54 -7 -4.01 -7
97.39 -8 -4.58 -8
 96.24 -9 -5.15 -9
2nd 95.09 -10 -5.72 -10