THREE TYPES OF DISCRETE

PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
PREPARED BY: ENGR. WINNIE O. ALEJO
 THREE TYPES OF DISCRETE
PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION

1. BINOMIAL PROBABILITY EXPERIMENT/ DISTRIBUTION

2. HYPERGEOMETRIC PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION

3. POISSON PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION

• PREPARED BY: ENGR. WINNIE O. ALEJO

 THREE TYPES OF DISCRETE
PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
1. BINOMIAL PROBABILITY EXPERIMENT/DISTRIBUTION - the binomial distribution
is the discrete probability distribution that gives only two possible results in an
experiment, either Success or Failure.

2. HYPERGEOMETRIC PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION - It is used to determine the

probability of a certain number of "successes" in a series of draws made without
replacement from a fixed population. The distribution depends on the size of the
population, the number of draws, and the number of "successes" in the population.

3. POISSON PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION - It is used for calculating the possibilities

for an event with the average rate of value.

• PREPARED BY: ENGR. WINNIE O. ALEJO

 THREE TYPES OF DISCRETE
PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
WHEN TO USE:

1. Binomial Probability Distribution.

Used when: The number of trials is fixed, and each trial has two possible outcomes
(success or failure).
2. Hypergeometric Probability Distribution

Used when: Sampling is without replacement from a finite population.

3. Poisson Probability Distribution

Used when: Modeling rare events occurring over time, space, or any continuous interval.

• PREPARED BY: ENGR. WINNIE O. ALEJO

BINOMIAL PROBABILITY
DISTRIBUTION
PREPARED BY: ENGR. WINNIE O. ALEJO
 BINOMIAL PROBABILITY
DISTRIBUTION
RULES:
1.The experiment has a fixed number of trials
2.The trials are independent
3.Each trial has two possible outcomes (e.g., Success/Failure)
4.Probability of success is consistent for each trial
• PREPARED BY: ENGR. WINNIE O. ALEJO
 BINOMIAL PROBABILITY
DISTRIBUTION:
𝐵 (𝑛, 𝑝) – Binomial Probability Distribution
𝑛𝐶𝑥 ∙ 𝑝 𝑥 ∙ 𝑞 𝑛−𝑥 – Binomial Probability Formula
Binomial Probability Notation:
x = number of successes
n = number of trials
p = probability of success
q = probability of failure
• PREPARED BY: ENGR. WINNIE O. ALEJO
 MEAN AND VARIANCE OF
PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION

Mean - 𝝁𝒙 = (𝒏)(𝒑) Binomial Probability

Notation:

Variance - 𝝈𝒙 𝟐 = (𝒏)(𝒑)(𝒒) n = number of trials

p = probability of success
Standard Deviation - 𝝈𝒙 = (𝒏)(𝒑)(𝒒) q = probability of failure

• PREPARED BY: ENGR. WINNIE O. ALEJO

 BINOMIAL PROBABILITY
DISTRIBUTION:
Example 1: Marcus decided to guess on a 10-multiple choice test. Each problem
has 5 choices. What is the probability that Marcus will get 7 of the questions
correctly?
To determine if this is a binomial probability problem, we check if it satisfies the conditions of a
binomial experiment:
1. Fixed number of trials (n) 3. Only two possible outcomes for each trial
o There are 10 questions, so 𝑛 = 10 o Marcus either gets the question right or gets it
wrong.
2. Independent trials
4. Constant probability of success (p)
o The result of one question does not affect the result of
another, so each guess is independent. o Since each question has 5 choices, and only
one correct answer, the probability of guessing
correctly is constant per question.
• PREPARED BY: ENGR. WINNIE O. ALEJO
 BINOMIAL PROBABILITY
DISTRIBUTION:
Example 1: Marcus decided to guess on a 10-multiple choice test. Each problem
has 5 choices. What is the probability that Marcus will get 7 of the questions
correctly?
Since all conditions are met, this is a binomial probability problem.
Given: Solution: 𝑛𝐶 ∙ 𝑝 𝑥
∙ 𝑞 𝑛−𝑥
𝑛 = 10 𝑥

𝑥=7 = 10𝐶7 ∙ 0.2 7 ∙ 0.8 10−7

1 = 0.000786 𝑜𝑟 0.0786%
𝑝 = = 0.2
5
1 The probability Marcus will get 7 questions
𝑞 = 1 − = 0.8 correctly is 0.0786%
5
• PREPARED BY: ENGR. WINNIE O. ALEJO
 BINOMIAL PROBABILITY
DISTRIBUTION:
Example 1: Marcus decided to guess on a 10-multiple choice test. Each problem
has 5 choices. What is the probability that Marcus will get 7 of the questions
correctly?
Find the Mean, Variance and Standard Deviation:
Given: a. Mean 𝝁𝒙 = (𝒏)(𝒑)
𝑛 = 10
𝝁𝒙 = 𝟏𝟎 𝟎. 𝟐 = 𝟐
𝑥=7 b.Variance 𝝈𝒙 𝟐 = (𝒏)(𝒑)(𝒒)
1 𝝈 𝟐
𝑝 = = 0.2 𝒙 = 𝟏𝟎 𝟎. 𝟐 𝟎. 𝟖 = 𝟏. 𝟔
5 c. Standard Deviation 𝝈𝒙 = (𝒏)(𝒑)(𝒒)
1
𝑞 = 1 − = 0.8 𝝈𝒙 = (𝟏𝟎)(𝟎. 𝟐)(𝟎. 𝟖) = 𝟏. 𝟐𝟔𝟓
5
• PREPARED BY: ENGR. WINNIE O. ALEJO
 BINOMIAL PROBABILITY
DISTRIBUTION:
Example 2: Sophia is taking a 15-question true-or-false quiz but forgot to study.
She decides to guess on every question. Since each question has only two choices
(true or false), she has a 50% chance of getting any question correct.
(a) What is the probability that Sophia will get exactly 10 questions correct?
(b) What is the probability that Sophia will get at least 12 questions correct?
To determine if this is a binomial probability problem, we check if it satisfies the conditions of a
binomial experiment: 3. Only two possible outcomes for each trial
1. Fixed number of trials (n) o Each trial must result in either success or
o There are 15 questions, so 𝑛 = 15 failure (binary outcome).

2. Independent trials 4. Constant probability of success (p)

o The outcome of one trial does not affect the outcome of o The probability of success remains the same for
another. each trial.
• PREPARED BY: ENGR. WINNIE O. ALEJO
 BINOMIAL PROBABILITY
DISTRIBUTION:
Example 2: Sophia is taking a 15-question true-or-false quiz but forgot to study.
She decides to guess on every question. Since each question has only two choices
(true or false), she has a 50% chance of getting any question correct.
(a) What is the probability that Sophia will get exactly 10 questions correct?
(b) What is the probability that Sophia will get at least 12 questions correct?
Given: Solution @ a: 𝑛𝐶𝑥 ∙ 𝑝 𝑥 ∙ 𝑞𝑛−𝑥
𝑛 = 15
15𝐶10 ∙ 0.5 10 ∙ 0.5 15−10
𝑥 = 10 𝑎𝑛𝑑 12
1 = 0.09164 𝑜𝑟 9.1644%
𝑝 = = 0.5
2 The probability that Sophia will get
1
𝑞 = 1 − = 0.5 exactly 10 questions correct
2
• PREPARED BY: ENGR. WINNIE O. ALEJO
is 0.09614 𝑜𝑟 9.1644%
 BINOMIAL PROBABILITY
DISTRIBUTION:
Example 2: Sophia is taking a 15-question true-or-false quiz but forgot to study.
She decides to guess on every question. Since each question has only two choices
(true or false), she has a 50% chance of getting any question correct.
(a) What is the probability that Sophia will get exactly 10 questions correct?
(b) What is the probability that Sophia will get at least 12 questions correct?
Given: Solution @ b: 𝑛𝐶𝑥 ∙ 𝑝 𝑥 ∙ 𝑞𝑛−𝑥
𝑛 = 15
𝑥 = 10 𝑎𝑛𝑑 12 15𝐶12 ∙ 0.5 12 ∙ 0.5 15−12
1 = 0.01389 𝑜𝑟 1.3885% - WRONG!
𝑝 = = 0.5
2
1
𝑞 = 1 − = 0.5
2
• PREPARED BY: ENGR. WINNIE O. ALEJO
 BINOMIAL PROBABILITY
DISTRIBUTION:
Example 2: (b) What is the probability that Sophia will get at least 12 questions correct?
Given: Solution: 𝑃 𝑥 ≥ 12 = 𝑃 12 + 𝑃 13 + 𝑃 14 + 𝑃 15
𝑛 = 15 • 𝐼𝑓 𝑥 = 12
𝑥 = 10 𝑎𝑛𝑑 12 15𝐶12 ∙ 0.5 12
∙ 0.5 15−12
= 0.013885
1 • 𝐼𝑓 𝑥 = 13
𝑝 = = 0.5
2 15𝐶13 ∙ 0.5 13 ∙ 0.5 15−13 = 0.003204
1
𝑞 = 1 − = 0.5 • 𝐼𝑓 𝑥 = 14
2 14 15−14
15𝐶14 ∙ 0.5 ∙ 0.5 = 0.00046
𝐼𝑓 𝑥 = 15
15𝐶15 ∙ 0.5 15 ∙ 0.5 15−15 = 0.00003
• PREPARED BY: ENGR. WINNIE O. ALEJO
 BINOMIAL PROBABILITY
DISTRIBUTION:
Example 2: (b) What is the probability that Sophia will get at least 12 questions correct?
Solution:
Given:
𝑃 𝑥 ≥ 12 = 0.013885 + 0.003204 + 0.00046 + 0.00003
𝑛 = 15
𝑥 = 10 𝑎𝑛𝑑 12 𝑃 𝑥 ≥ 12 = 0.017578 𝑜𝑟 1.76% - The
1 probability that Sophia will get at least 12 questions
𝑝 = = 0.5
2 correct.
1
𝑞 = 1 − = 0.5
2

• PREPARED BY: ENGR. WINNIE O. ALEJO

 BINOMIAL PROBABILITY
DISTRIBUTION:
Example 2: Find the Mean, Variance and Standard Deviation @ A:
Mean 𝝁𝒙 = (𝒏)(𝒑)
Given:
𝝁𝒙 = 𝟏𝟓 𝟎. 𝟓 = 𝟕. 𝟓
𝑛 = 15
𝑥 = 10 𝑎𝑛𝑑 12
1 Variance 𝝈𝒙 𝟐 = (𝒏)(𝒑)(𝒒)
𝑝 = = 0.5
2 𝝈𝒙 𝟐 = 𝟏𝟓 𝟎. 𝟓 𝟎. 𝟓 = 𝟑. 𝟕𝟓
1
𝑞 = 1 − = 0.5
2 Standard Deviation 𝝈𝒙 = (𝒏)(𝒑)(𝒒)
𝝈𝒙 = (𝟏𝟓)(𝟎. 𝟓)(𝟎. 𝟓) = 𝟏. 𝟗𝟑
• PREPARED BY: ENGR. WINNIE O. ALEJO
POISSON PROBABILITY
DISTRIBUTION
PREPARED BY: ENGR. WINNIE O. ALEJO
 POISSON PROBABILITY
DISTRIBUTION:
Poisson Probability Distribution
Where: 𝜇𝑥 𝑒 −𝜇
𝑃 𝑥 = ; x = 0,1,2….
𝑥!
𝜇 = the average number of times that an event occurs in a certain period of
time or space
x = represents the number of occurrences or events
𝜇 = 𝑛𝑝
𝑛 = 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑠𝑎𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑒𝑠 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑝 = 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑜𝑓 𝑠𝑢𝑐𝑐𝑒𝑠𝑠
𝑒 = 2.71828…
• PREPARED BY: ENGR. WINNIE O. ALEJO
 MEAN AND VARIANCE OF
PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION

Mean - 𝝁 = (𝒏)(𝒑) Poisson Probability

Notation:

Variance - 𝝈𝟐 = 𝝁 𝑛 = 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑠𝑎𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑒𝑠

𝑝 = 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑜𝑓 𝑠𝑢𝑐𝑐𝑒𝑠

Standard Deviation - 𝝈 = (𝝁)

• PREPARED BY: ENGR. WINNIE O. ALEJO

 POISSON PROBABILITY
DISTRIBUTION:
Example 1: The average number of cell phones sold by a stores at Greenhills
Shopping Center is three per day. What is the probability that exactly 4
cellphones will be sold tomorrow?

Given: Solution: 𝜇 𝑥 𝑒 −𝜇
𝑃 𝑥 =
𝜇=3 𝑥!
𝑥=4 (3)4 (𝑒)−3
𝑃 𝑥 =
4!
𝑃 4 = 0.16803 𝑜𝑟 16.803%
• PREPARED BY: ENGR. WINNIE O. ALEJO
 POISSON PROBABILITY
DISTRIBUTION:
Example 1: Mean and Variance of the problem

Given: Solution: Mean (𝝁) = (𝒏)(𝒑)

𝜇=3 𝝁=𝟑
𝑥=4 Variance (𝝈𝟐 ) = 𝝁
𝝈𝟐 = 𝟑
Standard Deviation 𝝈 = (𝝁)
𝝈 = (𝟑) = 𝟏. 𝟕𝟑𝟐
• PREPARED BY: ENGR. WINNIE O. ALEJO
 POISSON PROBABILITY
DISTRIBUTION:
Example 2: The average number of traffic accidents on a certain intersection in
Manila is two per month.
(a) Find the probability that zero accidents happen on that certain
intersection in a one-month period.
(b) Find the probability that at most four accidents occur on the
intersection in a two-month period. 𝑥 −𝜇 0 −2
𝜇 𝑒 (2) (𝑒)
Given @ a: Solution @ a: 𝑃 𝑥 = 𝑃 𝑥 =
𝑥! 0!
𝜇=2
𝑥=0 𝑃 0 = 0.13534 𝑜𝑟 13.534%
• PREPARED BY: ENGR. WINNIE O. ALEJO
 POISSON PROBABILITY
DISTRIBUTION:
Example 2: The average number of traffic accidents on a certain intersection in
Manila is two per month.
(a) Find the probability that zero accidents happen on that certain
intersection in a one-month period.
(b) Find the probability that at most four accidents occur on the
intersection in a two-month period.
𝑥 −𝜇
Given @ b: 𝜇 𝑒
Solution @ b: 𝑃 𝑥 =
𝜇 = 2 𝑝𝑒𝑟 𝑚𝑜. 2 𝑚𝑜. 𝑥!
𝜇=4
(4)4 (𝑒)−4
𝑥=4 𝑃 4 = 𝑃 4 = 0.19537 𝑜𝑟 19.53%
4! 𝑊𝑅𝑂𝑁𝐺!
• PREPARED BY: ENGR. WINNIE O. ALEJO
 POISSON PROBABILITY
DISTRIBUTION:
Example 2: The average number of traffic accidents on a certain intersection in
Manila is two per month. (4)0 (𝑒)−4
𝑃 0 = 𝑃 0 = 0.01832 𝑜𝑟 1.832%
0!
Given @ b:
(4)1 (𝑒)−4 𝑃 1 = 0.07326 𝑜𝑟 7.326%
𝜇 = 2 𝑝𝑒𝑟 𝑚𝑜. 2 𝑚𝑜. 𝑃 1 =
1!
𝜇=4
(4) 2 (𝑒)−4
𝑥 = 0,1,2,3,4 𝑃 2 = 𝑃 2 = 0.14653 𝑜𝑟 14.65%
2!
Solution @ b:
(4)3 (𝑒)−4
𝜇 𝑥 𝑒 −𝜇 𝑃 3 = 𝑃 3 = 0.19537 𝑜𝑟 19.53%
𝑃 𝑥 = 3!
𝑥! (4)4 (𝑒)−4
𝑃 4 = 𝑃 4 = 0.19537 𝑜𝑟 19.53%
• PREPARED BY: ENGR. WINNIE O. ALEJO 4!
 POISSON PROBABILITY
DISTRIBUTION:
Example 2: The average number of traffic accidents on a certain intersection in
Manila is two per month.
𝑃 0 = 0.01832 𝑜𝑟 1.832%
Solution @ b:
𝜇 𝑥 𝑒 −𝜇 𝑃 1 = 0.07326 𝑜𝑟 7.326%
𝑃 𝑥 =
𝑥!
𝑃 𝑥 ≤ 4 = 𝑃 0 + 𝑃 1 + 𝑃 2 + 𝑃 3 + 𝑃(4) 𝑃 2 = 0.14653 𝑜𝑟 14.65%

𝑃 𝑥 ≤ 4 = 0.01832 + 0.07326 + 0.14653

+0.19537 + 0.19537 𝑃 3 = 0.19537 𝑜𝑟 19.53%
𝑃 𝑥 ≤ 4 = 0.62885 𝑜𝑟 62.885%
𝑃 4 = 0.19537 𝑜𝑟 19.53%
• PREPARED BY: ENGR. WINNIE O. ALEJO
 POISSON PROBABILITY
DISTRIBUTION:
Example 2: Mean and Variance of the problem

Given: Solution: Mean (𝝁) = (𝒏)(𝒑)

𝜇=4 𝝁=𝟒
Variance (𝝈𝟐 ) = 𝝁
𝝈𝟐 = 𝟒
Standard Deviation 𝝈 = (𝝁)
𝝈 = (𝟒) = 𝟐
• PREPARED BY: ENGR. WINNIE O. ALEJO
 HYPERGEOMETRIC
PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
PREPARED BY: ENGR. WINNIE O. ALEJO
 HYPERGEOMETRIC
PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
𝐻𝑦𝑝 (𝑛, 𝑁, 𝑘) – Hypergeometric Probability Distribution
𝑘𝐶𝑥 ∙ 𝑁 − 𝑘𝐶𝑛−𝑥
where: 𝑁𝐶𝑛
N = Population size
n = sample size
k = number of successes in the population
x = number of successes in the sample
• PREPARED BY: ENGR. WINNIE O. ALEJO
 HYPERGEOMETRIC
PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
Example 1: There are 6 white balls and 34 blue balls in the basket. If you draw 8
balls from the basket without replacement, what is the probability that exactly 3
of the 8 balls are white?

Given: Solution: 𝑘𝐶𝑥 ∙ 𝑁 − 𝑘𝐶𝑛−𝑥

𝑃 𝑥 =
𝑁 = 40 𝑁𝐶𝑛
𝑛=8 6𝐶3 ∙ 34𝐶5
𝑃 𝑥 =
𝑘=6 40𝐶8
𝑥=3 𝑃 𝑥 = 0.07236 𝑜𝑟 7.236%
• PREPARED BY: ENGR. WINNIE O. ALEJO
 HYPERGEOMETRIC
PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
Example 2: A BIR Examiner randomly selects 6 income tax returns from among
15 returns, 5 of which contain unauthorized deductions. Find the probability that
the sample includes 2 returns with unauthorized deductions.

Given: Solution: 𝑘𝐶𝑥 ∙ 𝑁 − 𝑘𝐶𝑛−𝑥

𝑃 𝑥 =
𝑁 = 15 𝑁𝐶𝑛
𝑛=6 5𝐶2 ∙ 10𝐶4
𝑃 𝑥 =
𝑘=5 15𝐶6
𝑥=2 𝑃 𝑥 = 0.41958 𝑜𝑟 41.985%
• PREPARED BY: ENGR. WINNIE O. ALEJO