NU BALIWAG

SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING, ARCHITECTURE, AND TECHNOLOGY

DEPARTMENT OF CIVIL ENGINEERING

Integrated Flood Risk Management: Impact

Assessment and Strategy Development for the
Municipality of Balagtas

By

Name of the Authors

2024

In partial fulfillment
of the requirements for the degree of
Bachelor of Science in Civil Engineering

NU Baliwag
Title Page

Form

Dedication

Acknowledgment

Abstract

Table of Contents

1.1 Introduction .................................................................................................................. 4

1.2 Statement of the Problem ............................................................................................... 6
1.3 Significance of the Study ................................................................................................ 7
1.4 Scope and Delimitations of the Study .............................................................................. 9
1.5 Definition of Terms ....................................................................................................... 10
2.1 Relevant Readings ....................................................................................................... 13
2.2 Relevant Literature ....................................................................................................... 14
2.3 Relevant Studies .......................................................................................................... 20
2.4 Synthesis and Justification ........................................................................................... 26
2.5 Conceptual Framework ................................................................................................ 28
2.5.1 Stages and Phases ................................................................................................. 28

List of Tables

List of Figures

CHAPTER 1: THE PROBLEM AND ITS BACKGROUND

Introduction

Statement of the problem

Significant of the study

Scope and delimitation of the study

Definition of Terms

CHAPTER 2: REVIEW OF RELATED LITERATURE

Relevant Readings

Relevant Literature
 Relevant Studies

Synthesis and Justification

Conceptual Framework

Theoretical Framework

Hypotheses

CHAPTER 3: METHOD OF RESEARCH

Methodology

Research Design

Research Setting

Population and Sample of the Study

Research Instrument

Data gathering procedure

Data gathering instruments

Statistical Treatment

REFERENCES

APPENDICES
 CHAPTER I

THE PROBLEM AND ITS BACKGROUND

1.1 Introduction
Floods have been among the most disastrous forms of natural disasters throughout

human history. Flood disasters have been the most dominant calamity that happened in the

world in the years between 2000 and 2019 taking the largest percentage of 44% and resulted

in 651 billion USD losses (CRED & UNDRR, 2020). This statistic clearly illustrates the fact

that flooding is not a rare event and that it takes place with considerable frequency, more often

than not in areas that are vulnerable to both pluvial – flash floods and fluvial – river flooding.

Asia in particular is a region with large population density and relatively fragile geological

conditions. Many studies have identified that this region has been extremely affected, and the

threat is still lasting and increasing, involving both human lives and infrastructures (Ashraf et

al., 2017). Thus, flooding is not only a danger to tangible assets but also to the well-being of

the population. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), approximately 1.7 billion

people globally have been affected by floods in the last two decades with an adverse impact on

human life, damage to properties, and destruction of essential health facilities (WHO, 2021).

The Philippines, defined as one of the most hazard-prone countries in the globe, is

vulnerable to numerous natural disasters, including floods. The country is situated in a disaster

zone because of its geographical location which makes it vulnerable to tropical cyclones and

related disasters such as intense rainfall and storm surge. Tropical cyclones and floods caused

approximately 18.1 billion pesos in damages, in 2023 alone (PAGASA, 2023). Based on the

national trend analysis, this condition would enhance the level of flood severity in different

parts of the country over the century due to climate change (Besarra et al., 2024).
 Eckstein et al. (2021) ranked Philippines as among the four countries most adversely

affected by climate change in the long term. This ranking shows the growing frequency and

duration of storms, floods, and other natural calamities. The overall effects on the economy

have been massive with over USD 3.1 billion in estimated annual losses over the past two

decades (Eckstein et al., 2021). These losses are anticipated to rise in the future unless

comprehensive flood mitigation measures have been put into place.

Figure 1. Map of the Province of Bulacan, Philippines by Esmael, L. K. (2024, August 12).

Bulacan is one of the provinces of the Philippines situated in the region of Central

Luzon characterized by its urban growth and extensive farmlands. With low-lying grounds

which are surrounded by significant water sources such as the Pampanga River, Bulacan is

vulnerable to severe flooding, particularly during typhoons and rainy seasons. The

Municipality of Balagtas situated at the southeastern boundary of Bulacan has these flood risks

due to its low elevation and proximity to waterways. Balagtas has always been vulnerable to

flash floods and river overflows that affect the agricultural land, residence, and other

infrastructures. Due to inadequate flood control systems, Balagtas is susceptible to flooding

and is a priority area for considering flood prevention measures.

1.2 Statement of the Problem
According to the Department of Science and Technology (DOST), flooding is a

frequent situation in almost all areas in the Philippines, but worse in the flood hazard zones

including Balagtas, Bulacan. Balagtas is a developing municipality in the province of Bulacan

that is susceptible to flooding, particularly during the rainy season due to natural and human-

induced factors.

Figure 2. Bulacan Flooding Hazard Map, Provincial Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Office

The Bulacan Flooding Hazard Map, provided by the Provincial Disaster Risk Reduction and

Management Office, shows that the degree of risk differs in different areas of Bulacan. Poorly

drained areas such as areas near river and stream channels and areas affected by water logging

are well depicted in the map. This data is useful for the organization in providing more

information on the risks of floods hence the call for proper and effective measures needs to be

taken to avoid the effects that come with climate change and also the increased rate of urban

development.

The main objective of this research is to assess the existing practices in flood risk

management in the municipality of Balagtas, Bulacan and come up with comprehensive

measures which would help to minimize flooding incidences in the municipality. Given that
the municipality is located in the flood-prone areas as depicted in the Bulacan Flooding Hazard

Map, this study aims to evaluate both the environmental and socio-economic effects of

recurring floods and provide recommendations that can address both the short-term and long-

term flood risks.

The study specifically aims to:

1. Investigate the vulnerable and flood-prone areas in Balagtas and the frequency and

severity of floods.

2. Examine the current flood control measures implemented by the local government in

mitigating flood risks in vulnerable areas.

3. Combine flood mitigation solutions from case studies of other flood-prone areas that

have successfully reduced flood risks.

4. Formulate a comprehensive flood risk management system that consist of flood

defensive measures and other non-defensive measures.

5. Assess the economic, environmental, and social consequences of the proposed flood

risk management options within the site.

1.3 Significance of the Study

The findings of this study are significant for various sectors since it will tackle the short-

term and future problems associated with flooding in the municipality of Balagtas, Bulacan.

The study contributes to the understanding and formulation of effective sweeping strategies in

managing flood risks in Balagtas by giving adequate information on how the community can

mitigate the impacts of floods hence reducing the vulnerabilities of inhabitants and

correspondingly fostering sustainable development despite of harsh and prevailing climate

change problems.
 This study is conducted to provide crucial information and deepen the knowledge and

understanding of flood risk and flood risk management, specifically in Balagtas, Bulacan. The

results of the study would be beneficial to the following:

Community. The study will provide solutions that foster resilience and provide information

on how to improve the availability of protective programs, effective warning systems, and other

protective measures that will help the residents of the community.

Local Government: The study will enable local government officials in Balagtas particularly

those on the technical working group convened to identify and assess flood-prone areas, in

prioritizing infrastructure projects geared towards flood control and in the overall formulation

of appropriate flood control measures. The proposed strategies will also assist in the

formulation of long-term urban planning measures which will include flood risk reduction

besides sustainable development.

Urban Planners and Engineers: The study will help add to the existing knowledge of urban

planners, engineers, and architects by highlighting the shortcomings of the existing flood

mitigation systems and studying successful systems in other parts of the world.

Policy Makers: The study will provide best practices that could be implemented on an

organizational, local, and even national level in managing flood risks. The study can be useful

for policymakers in expanding or adjusting legislation connected with flood tolerance, disaster

risk minimization, and climate change adaptation.

Future Researchers: Researchers and other scholars in the fields of hydraulic engineering,

disaster management, and other environmental fields can utilize the findings of the study to

further explore and investigate flood hazards and risk, and develop new systems of methods

and management strategies.

1.4 Scope and Delimitations of the Study
The scope of this study is limited to the analysis flood hazards and flood mitigation

strategies for the Municipality of Balagtas, Bulacan, Philippines. Governance of floods

involves the identification of the areas that are vulnerable to flooding, evaluation of the

effectiveness of flood management measures currently in practice, and an assessment of the

overall strategies in light of the comprehensive knowledge gained from successful studies and

practices. In this context, the impact of these measures, which are going to be proposed for

flood risk management, on the economic, environmental, and social conditions of the study

area will be examined and the sustainable applicability of such measures will also be identified.

However, several limitations are inherent within this study and delimit its scope.

Geographically, the study is limited only to the Municipality of Balagtas, Bulacan, and

the research results cannot be generalized to other areas with different geographical and

hydrological environments. The research is also limited by the fact that it only considers a

specified period of the flood risks and may therefore fail to identify changes in flood risks

brought about by factors such as climate change or construction of infrastructure. Although

variations in short-term temporal weather conditions like typhoons and heavy rainfall

distributions will be included in the analysis, not all future climatic conditions are within the

foreseeable scope of this investigation.

Limitations on the amount of resources available which includes funds, time available

and advanced equipments should also be considered. These constraints may hinder the depth

of the technical analyses involved in the assessments. Moreover, the study will not include the

construction and planning of flood control facilities for flood protection, including levees and

drainage systems. Instead, the research will focus on the analysis of the existing measures and

creation of the management practices. These limitations are necessary for the practicality of

this study while providing a concentrated and comprehensive analysis of the flood hazards and

measures in Balagtas.
1.5 Definition of Terms
Flash floods. Flash floods are sudden, short-duration floods that result from intense rainfall

over a small area (Rubinato et al., 2019). As used in this study, flash floods refer to rapid

flooding events caused by heavy rains in Balagtas, often occurring in low-lying areas within

short time frames.

Flood. A flood is the overflowing of water onto normally dry land, often caused by excessive

rainfall, river overflow, or storm surges (Paswan & Ray, 2024). As used in this study, flood

refers to the inundation of areas in Balagtas, Bulacan, due to excessive rainfall and the overflow

of nearby water bodies such as rivers.

Flood Resilience. Flood resilience is the ability of a system or community to anticipate, prepare

for, respond to, and recover from flood events (Wang et al., 2022). As used in this study, flood

resilience refers to the capacity of Balagtas to withstand and recover from flood-related impacts

by employing both structural and non-structural measures.

Flood Risk. Flood risk is defined as the likelihood of flooding combined with the potential

consequences to people, property, and infrastructure (Cea & Costabile, 2022). As used in this

study, flood risk refers to the probability of flood events occurring in Balagtas and their

potential impact on the community and infrastructure.

Hazard Mapping. Hazard mapping involves identifying and documenting areas that are

vulnerable to natural hazards such as floods, earthquakes, and landslides (Luo et al., 2022).

As used in this study, hazard mapping refers to the process of identifying flood-prone areas in

Balagtas using topographic and hydrological data.

Hydraulic System. A hydraulic system refers to the infrastructure and processes that manage

water flow, such as dams, levees, and drainage systems (Abdessamed & Abderrazak, 2019).

As used in this study, hydraulic system refers to the flood control structures in Balagtas,

including dikes and drainage canals, designed to manage water flow during heavy rains.
Hydrologic Modeling. Hydrologic modeling simulates the movement, distribution, and

quality of water within natural and engineered systems, often used for flood forecasting (Napay

& Luyun, 2021). As used in this study, hydrologic modeling refers to the use of HEC-HMS to

simulate rainfall-runoff processes in Balagtas and predict flood scenarios.

Pacific Ring of Fire. The Pacific Ring of Fire is a region around the Pacific Ocean known for

its high seismic and volcanic activity, as well as frequent natural disasters like typhoons and

tsunamis (Besarra et al., 2024). As used in this study, Pacific Ring of Fire refers to the

geographic area where the Philippines is located, making it vulnerable to natural disasters,

including floods and typhoons.

Precipitation. Precipitation is any form of water, such as rain, snow, or hail, that falls from the

atmosphere to the Earth's surface (Pathak et al., 2020). As used in this study, precipitation refers

to rainfall in the Municipality of Balagtas, which contributes to flood events during the rainy

season.

Rainfall Intensity. Rainfall intensity refers to the amount of rain that falls over a specific

period, usually expressed in millimeters per hour (Cea & Costabile, 2022). As used in this

study, rainfall intensity refers to the rate at which rainfall occurs in Balagtas and its role in

triggering floods, especially during extreme weather events.

Rainfall Intensity Duration Frequency (RIDF). RIDF data is a statistical measure used to

describe the intensity of rainfall for different durations and frequencies, essential for flood risk

assessment (Peker et al., 2024). As used in this study, RIDF refers to the dataset used to

estimate peak discharges and assess flood risks in Balagtas during different rainfall events.

Topographic Map. A topographic map represents the elevation and features of a region,

showing natural and man-made landmarks, critical for flood risk assessment (Al-Hussein et al.,

2022). As used in this study, topographic map refers to the detailed elevation map of Balagtas

obtained from NAMRIA, used to model water flow and flood hazards.
Tropical Cyclones. Tropical cyclones are intense, low-pressure systems characterized by

strong winds and heavy rainfall, common in tropical regions (Kurata et al., 2023). As used in

this study, tropical cyclones refer to the weather systems that bring heavy rainfall and increase

the flood risk in Balagtas during the typhoon season.

Typhoons. Typhoons are a type of tropical cyclone that occurs in the northwestern Pacific

Ocean, typically bringing heavy rain, high winds, and storm surges (Besarra et al., 2024).

As used in this study, typhoons refer to the major weather events that contribute to severe

flooding in the Municipality of Balagtas, particularly during the rainy season.

 CHAPTER II

REVIEW OF RELATED LITERATURE

This chapter includes a brief review of related literature and related studies examined

by the researchers to understand the nature of the research and the research to be done. The

related literature and study are composed of different published works that tackle the concepts

of flood, flood resilience, flood analysis, flood risk and its influencing factors. The importance

of related literature and related studies helps the researchers to compare and contrast the

findings between the past and present studies to provide a background reading aspect that

assists in proceeding with the study until its completion.

2.1 Relevant Readings

Flooding 101

Rosane (2023) discusses natural disasters, specifically flooding, and defined it as the

overflow of water onto areas that are usually dry through precipitation, river or lake

overtopping and storm surges. They present high levels of threat to the lives, health, and

property of human beings. There are several types of flooding, namely: river flooding, flood of

precipitation, water sedimentation, flood in a short period, and tidal flooding. Of all the floods,

flash floods are the most disastrous as they are precipitated by rain in the least one or two hours.

The effects of the flood are worsened by climate change since this brings with it changes in

precipitation patterns that make flooding even worse since it becomes more frequent and more

severe globally.

Flood Preparedness

American Red Cross (2024) defines flooding as an operation of water on land that

would otherwise remain dry due to; rainwater flooding, river flooding, storm surge or dam

burst. Floods can be stationary or progressive in development and flash floods are short-lived
but violent. They offer high risks of drowning, damages to property and structures, and pollute

water that is fit for consumption. Educating people on flood risks and being ready, drawing up

evacuation strategies during a flood warning, and acting swiftly during a flood are critical

things people should do during such disasters (American Red Cross, 2024).

Bulacan under floodwaters

According to Balbin (2024), more than fifty-two villages in seven towns, including

Balagtas, of Bulacan were flooded because of the rains brought by Typhoon Carina and high

tide in Manila Bay. Some of the worst hit area include the barangays of San Juan, Wawa, and

Panginay in Balagtas, other area in towns of Guiguinto and Bulakan. Among these, roads

became impassable; a clear indication that Bulacan remained highly susceptible to floods. This

suggest the need to come up with better ways of managing flood risk and enhance the physical

infrastructure in the flood prone regions.

2.2 Relevant Literature

Flood Risk and Resilience

The importance of IFRM can be seen in the work of Fu et al. (2020) which states that

integrated flood risk management entails comprehensive risk analysis to formulate diverse

strategies for managing risks. In line with the above authors, and in a similar reasoning

addressing the flood risks, Fu et al. (2020) posits that, in enhancing the society’s resilience

against floods, it is advisable to invest in infrastructure while at the same time applying policy

changes. Flood management is also mentioned in the literature and climate change adaptation

measures, which will result in sustainable development in the flood-prone areas.

In this respect, the authors strongly emphasize that the further development of flood

risk management will depend on the use of technologies including early warning and modeling,

as well as NBMs including wetlands restoration. This combination of the conventional and

advanced techniques can provide more safeguard against both recurrent and severe floods,
which is significant for places including Balagtas, Bulacan where infrastructure is still being

built to meet the continuous flood threats.

Flood Risk in Urban Areas

Cea and Costabile (2022) pays consideration to the effect of urbanization in flood risk

in urban regions by considering climate change. The literature points out a need to address the

need to embrace adaptive measures in growing urban centers as the solid surfaces and

structures reduce the capacity to absorb rainwater leading to increased flood disasters. In such

circumstances, the need to build hydrological models to forecast the occurrence of the extreme

weather condition and ultimately effective and strategic urban planning.

Indeed, these models are appropriate to denote municipalities that experience

urbanization, including Balagtas where flood disaster acts naturally. The paper further

postulates that, to mitigate these risks, organizational frameworks other than engineering

solutions are necessary to apply governance frameworks that proactively seek to enhance

resilience. The adoption of such frameworks may assist municipalities in developing

responsive urban plans that address both development and flood issues.

Driving Mechanism of Flood Disaster Resilience

Liu et al. (2022) present a novel approach to understanding the driving mechanisms

behind flood disaster resilience and its implications for management decision-making. Rather

than a simple linear model of the option of flood resilience the literature underscores interactive

components which comprise of environmental, social and infrastructural aspects which define

the level of flood resilience in a community. The authors look at the interactive effects of these

factors using a systems-based approach to establish how these factors can be managed for the

improvement of disaster management. This perspective is beneficial for policy planning since

it shows that it is not enough to rely on physical infrastructures against floods in a country.
 The literature outlines a new analytic tool that helps in recognizing the key determinants

of flood response like, community involvement, preparedness, and infrastructure flexibility. In

this respect, the literature promotes the use of scientific info and PAC tools as well as malleable

management practices for building strong and adaptive flood management systems. As a result,

a community reduces the effects of the future floods occurrences and can regain situation in

the event of disaster incidences.

Flood Risk Assessment

Rubinato et al. (2019) also pointed out that with increasing degrees of urbanization,

fluvial floods may be both more frequent and intense. Common measures used in the control

of floods include natural solutions which are ultimately applied such as SuDS. Waghwala and

Agnihotri (2019) argued that a clearer understanding of how flood risk is incorporated with the

process of urbanization is needed. Hence, it becomes common practice to map LULC of the

urban areas to address issues associated with flood zonation. In order to explain the

characteristics and temporal-spatial changes of LULC, many techniques for remote sensing

image classification have been figured out, as shown below to reveal the patterns of urban

sprawl. In this case it is useful to point out that Geographic Information Systems (GIS) are

suitable for large number of analyses and for displaying the broad range of data on geographical

location and distribution of the city since it is an effective and inexpensive tool.

Following the understanding of Ghorbani et al. (2019), ABM can be described as a

computer model of various interacting agents which are autonomous and heterogeneous and

their environment for the purpose of investigating the behavior of agents in the system. The

current efforts of incorporating human behavior into flood risk management lack certain

aspects. The models adopt a simplified portrayal of the flood hazard while at the same time

displaying a strong focus on the human factor. Secondly, there is no systematic approach used

in the evaluation of the policies that govern the flood risk. To be able to model and simulate
complex human flood systems, Abebe et al. (2019) proposed the coupled flood-agent-

institution modeling architecture (CLAIM).

Flood Modelling Software

Floods, typhoons, monsoon rains, storm surges, and other natural calamities and man-

made influences are the principal contributors to flooding, which can however occur even with

the use of flood control structures. The Philippines is located in the Pacific Ring of Fire, and it

experiences a median of 20 typhoons annually. According to Monjardin et al. (2021), there are

many technologies currently in place that might assist individuals in becoming better prepared

for dealing with such circumstances. Normally at the time of monsoon, there is heavy rainfall

and that leads to excessive flood in a particular area. When it comes to detailed hazard mapping

as well as risk evaluation for the downstream area of the river for 100-year flood return period,

using HEC-RAS (Hydrologic Engineering Centre’s River Analysis System) Modelling

Software is an appropriate tool. Thus, the water level in the river that contributes to flooding

in downstream areas can be estimated using 2D flood hazard modeling.

Integration of HEC-RAS and HEC-HMS

HEC-RAS and HEC-HMS with GIS integration offers a holistic approach to flood

modelling and hazard mapping. HEC-RAS is used for hydraulic analysis so that manner in

which water flows and floodplain can be predicted under different conditions whereas HEC-

HMS is used for rainfall runoff analysis to predict the hydrological response in a watershed.

The integration of these tools makes it possible for researchers and practitioners to develop

good and reliable flood models that may be used in mitigation and management of flood risks

(Peker et al., 2024). These models are extended with spatial analysis components in GIS,

enabling improved visualization of flood hazards across landscapes of floodplains and urban

areas. Furthermore, integration of HEC-RAS and HEC-HMS with GIS also helps in the
assessment of potential flood that may occur in the areas that are most affected. The ability to

map out flood prone areas and predict the depth and frequency of the floods helps in coming

up with good strategies on preventing floods. Thus, by taking advantage of these tools, the

stakeholders can enhance the development of flood hazard maps that are important tools in

decision making by policy makers as well as in emergency response operations (Peker et al.,

2024). This combination also not only helps refine the knowledge of flow and inundation

processes in a water body, but also assists in creating measures that will assist the community

in better coping with a flooding event as well.

Flood Resilience

From this literature, nature-based solutions (NbS) are presented as critical in any

disaster risk reduction particularly floods. NbS are used to reduce the vulnerability of a given

area to flooding; they include wetland and greens metrics management, urban green

infrastructure, and sustainable drainage system. The kind of strategies that are used are

compatible with nature, not in opposition to it, and create far reaching value beyond mere

sustainability, while at the same time improving ecosystem services. NbS are highly effective

especially for developing countries as funding of big infrastructural projects may not be

possible. It is also important to identify that in addition to realizing flood risks, NbS also has

many positive outcomes for ecology and climate, which means that this process is a

comprehensive approach toward flood risk management.

Intelligent Solutions for Flood Management

Paswan and Ray (2024) discuss the possibility of using Artificial Intelligence (AI) &

Machine Learning (ML) in flood management systems. The paper also highlights the

importance of developing innovative approaches that would enable early identification of risks,

prevention and handling of floods as global warming brings in more disastrous incidents. The
authors explain how two technologies AI and ML can help them to monitor the data from

sensors, satellite imagery, and historical flood data, and help to make proper real-time

predictions. These technologies can include uses on the early warning systems to enable local

government as well as communities manage floods in an efficient manner. AI and ML

adoptation in flood management has been viewed as one of the significant innovation to

minimize the impact of flood which result in high loss of lives and property.

Moreover, it also describes different examples of the application of AI models to

control floods and thus, ensure the relevance and efficiency of these systems. According to

Paswan and Ray (2024), It is pertinent to mention that AI and ML are promising with the

evolution of advanced systems provided it enhanced the quality of data, inter-disciplinary

approach followed and government involvement in smart technology. They support the use of

artificial intelligence technologies in combination with the conventional approaches to

managing floods and other natural disasters hence leading to sustainable development.

Coupling HEC-RAS and HEC-HMS

Abeddsemad and Abderrazak (2019) used HEC-RAS and HEC-HMS to analyze the

rainfall runoff simulation to assess the floodplain in the city of Ain Sefra situated in the Ksour

Mountain desert region in Algeria. Coupling those models was discussed in the paper to help

improve the flood risk management and generate the proper inundation maps that are vital for

planning and response in threatened regions (Abdessamed & Abderrazak, 2019). This approach

does not only help in analyzing and predicting flood phenomenon but also helps the local

government to promote flood resilient measures to ensure sustainable development in the

affected areas.
Quantitative Flood Assessment

Maranzoni et al. (2022) have done a thorough literature compilation and analysis of

quantitative flood hazard assessment techniques that are frequently used to evaluate flood

hazards and risks. It classifies numerous assessment approaches such as statistic,

hydrodynamic, remote sensing, etc and defines why and where the specific approach is

profitable and, conversely, where its deficiency is expected. The authors claimed that these

methods could be combined to also improve both predictive and pro-active protection

capabilities against floods. Thus, focusing on the analysis of prior research, the paper highlights

the importance of the further development of the methodology and the integration of different

disciplines to achieve better outcomes in flood risks’ management to enhance the practice of

flood risk management.

2.3 Relevant Studies

Floodplans

Aquino and Palarca (2021) proposed a landscape plan to improve community resilience

against flood in the Marilao, Bulacan which is a flood prone area in the Philippines. The study

is centered on how the field of landscape planning should incorporate the flood management

system to develop so-called “floodplans,” which designate structural and nonstructural

approaches to flood prevention. These plans include hard structures like dikes and drums that

assist in the draining solutions and soft structures like the riparian vegetation and green areas

and which encourages natural absorption of water. In this approach, the planning and design

of flood hazard areas stress the need for integrated, use- multiple infrastructure spaces with

functions for flood protection, urban and regional resilience, and ecological balance.

Thus, the study emphasizes the call for community engagement as well as the roles of

the local government in building flood-resilient councils. Flood risk reduction has to be

achieved by introducing the sustainable urban planning and the efficient use of available
landscapes for both urban and flood management purposes, according to Aquino and Palarca.

For other flood prone region such as Balagtas Bulacan their recommendation holds the key on

how engineering can work hand in hand with engineering environmental friendly approaches.

Flood Preparedness and Mitigation

Kurata et al. (2023) explores the factors influencing flood disaster preparedness and

mitigation in flood-prone areas in the Philippines by integrating two key behavioral

frameworks: The two theories that has been used to explain the students’ behavior in this study

is the Protection Motivation Theory and the Theory of Planned Behavior. PMT argues that

behaviors that people engage in to safeguard themselves from threats such as floods are

influenced by perceived severity, vulnerability as well as response and self-efficacy. TPB, on

the other hand, focuses on a number of factors that include attitude, subjective norms, and

perceived behavior control as the determinants of intention and behavior. By integrating the

social cognitive theory and the theory of planned behavior, the study gives exhaustive account

of how both cognitive and social antecedents affect community level flood preparedness and

response.

The present state of disaster preparedness requires a focus not only on the physical

conditions but also on people’s behavior and their level of concern and capabilities to deal with

floods (Kurata et al., 2023). The study also points to the fact that a multilayered way of

managing floods is needed, which incorporates the aspects of psychology that can minimize

the human exposure to disasters as well as the structural changes needed for the efficient

reduction of the vulnerability.

Flood Risk Analysis

Diaconu et al. (2021) present an extensive overview of different approaches applied in

the context of flood risk assessment. They also argue that there is need to evaluate flood hazard
which is defined both by the likelihood of floods and the risk exposure in the flood prone areas.

They consider the initial and conventional methodologies, called hydrological and hydraulic

models, which forecast flood occurrence and the ways it is going to behave, and also modern

GIS and machine learning methods that utilize spatial data and swift algorithms. The paper also

states that the integration of multiple methods of analysis can help produce a more precise

estimate of risks as well as enhance the work of minimizing threats.

Moreover, the authors also present the drawbacks and issues of the existing approaches

of flood risk analysis in ensuring the availability and accuracy of the information. The demands

for a concept that can handle the flood risk as an interrelated environmental, economic and

social issue. This paper therefore recommends increase in technology and improved

cooperation between science, policy and community to improve Flood resistance. Their

collective work remains widely beneficial to a view on methods for studying flood risks; and

the need to come up with more methods as part of current research.

Hydraulic Modeling Study

According to Luo et al. (2022), general aspects of hydrodynamics and their relationship

to urban hydrology are the basis for the numerical modeling of floods in urban areas. Generally,

the model components consist of runoff, confluence and flood inundation for urban flood

modeling. It should also be noted that each of the modules involves hydrologic, hydrodynamic

or simplified methods of calculation depending on the approach chosen for the modelling

activity. Three stages make up the model development process for the urban flood simulation:

Exploratory experience (where theoretical methods of hydrology are offered as a way of

exploring water resources), algorithm creation (where simulation techniques and algorithms

for urban hydrology, and hydrodynamic processes are developed), and complete definitization.
Flood Vulnerability and Influencing Factors

Pathak et al. (2020) analyze the susceptibility to flooding and the key aspects that affect

it along with the definition of flood vulnerability, in this case the nexus between environment,

society, and the economy and the prepare such region or community for possible flooding. The

study stresses that the problem of flood vulnerability is a multidimensional one and cannot be

solved by only building more infrastructure in the affected areas. Rather, it has to factor in such

elements as the nature of land use, levels of poverty, availability of early warning systems and

others. Such components influence how communities adapt to as well as cope and rebound

from the impacts of floods.

Pathak et al. (2020) also observe that flood vulnerability is not purely the same with all

the people, for those at the bottom of the social and economic ladder are normally the ones

affected the most by floods. It is this need that calls for mechanisms of flood management that

are integrated within the socio-economic framework of the affected population rather than just

relying on structural flood control. Public awareness is also beneficial for improving

vulnerability measures. In this way, municipalities will be more capable of protecting the most

vulnerable inhabitants of the population and of minimizing the adverse consequences of

flooding as a whole.

Urban Flood Numerical Simulation

Luo et al. (2022) offer an inclusive evaluation of the techniques of urban flood

numerical simulation, analyzing and evaluating the current trends in flood prediction and risk

assessment technologies in urban environments. The argument is made regarding the

willingness of the authorities to conduct right and accurate numerical simulations of urban

flooding, which involves devising models depicting the interaction among rainfall, drainage

systems, and the surface features. Focusing on hydrological models, hydraulic models, and
data-driven techniques, the authors present all available simulation techniques and evaluate the

strengths and weaknesses of each of these methods. These models are crucial for predicting the

behavior of floods and their impacts, carrying out risk assessments, and for planning flooding

mitigation measures hence are critical for urban vulnerabilities like Balagtas which are prone

to floods.

Luo et al. (2022) suggest that even though these recommendations push forward the

analyses, determining the amount of water carried by the floods and depicting the inundation

dynamics can be automatically integrated into model elements and provide timely forecasting

of flood situations. For municipalities such as Balagtas, it seeks to enhance current flood

simulation capacities which would greatly augment current levels of disaster preparedness

response.

Flood Analysis Using HEC-RAS and HEC-HMS

The research undertaken by Al-Hussein et al. (2022) aims towards flood analysis with

the use of the HEC-RAS and HEC-HMS models. The reason for the interest in this particular

region was to study the vulnerability of the region to flooding as well as climate change. By

way of modeling, they were able to determine the flow of water produced during a flood and

the specific areas that were most inundated. Other parameters such as the rain fall amounts,

land cover and topographic features were used in the model to produce efficient flood maps

that were highly beneficial in enhancing the states response to floods. This trend in research

also showed how the two-dimensional hydraulic models can improve the traditional flood

computation models. People have used HEC-RAS and HEC-HMS for examining certain flood

damage reduction measures such as the construction of levees and diversion channels. The

study’ recommendations stressed people living in those regions with high potential for flooding

should be prepared and implement flood management plans. This work is also critical for
improved flood risk management, emphasizing the need for regular review and revision of

flood risk action plans.

Hydrological Modeling and Flood Mapping

Napay and Luyun (2021) concentrated on hydrologic modeling and flood mapping of

Quinali A watershed situated in Albay, Philippines using HEC-HMS and HEC-RAS two of the

most widely used software. HEC HMS (Hydrologic Engineering Center's Hydrologic

Modeling System) was used to model the rainfall-runoff processes that informed the study of

the watershed as a hydrological unit. On the other hand, HEC RAS (Hydrologic Engineering

Center's River Analysis System) implemented water movement and also flooding hazard

mapping. This approach sought to take advantage of both hydrology and hydraulics in order to

give an accurate flood risk evaluation by improving the prediction and visualization of flood

events in the areas. In the course of the study, it was shown practical application of the use of

integrated models for the flood risk assessment which in turn can help local governments in

enhancing the flood preparedness and mitigation measures. The applicability of HEC-HMS

and HEC-RAS models in this regard proves the necessity for modern tools in building up

evidence based action plans targeting flood management and urban development.

Flood Management

Flood management techniques have evolved over time. Traditional flood control

measures have been replaced by a more coherent approach that aims at achieving flood

resilience (Wang et al., 2022). Wang et al. (2022) argue that conventional flood control

measures like levees and dams focus on preventing flooding rather than addressing the

fundamental weaknesses in communities. The authors propose to combine ecological, social,

and economic considerations into one model in order to enhance community resilience; they
also suggest that adaptive strategies are important in flood risk mitigation together with

community involvement and sustainable practices.

Flood Estimation

The study conducted by Adnan et al. (2021) investigates the flood behavior in the Batu

Pahat River of Malaysia with the HEC-HMS hydrologic simulation model. Inputting data

including rainfall, watershed traits, and stream flow into the model is part of the research in

anticipating flood events and assessing flood risk in the region. Such results are key to the

formulation of better flood control strategies and infrastructure, especially within regions

subject to large amounts of rainfall and flooding. This study is especially important for urban

flood risk management, providing knowledge for more effective strategies in flood mitigation

planning.

2.4 Synthesis and Justification

The need for this paper, therefore, is discerned from the application of integrated flood

risk management (IFRM) to communities, particularly Balagtas, Bulacan, owing to the

extended frequency and intensity of floods caused by climate change and growth of urban

structures. The research points out that, developed community flood risk requires the

integration of sound analytical approaches to risk analysis to strengthen community resistance

to flood events. For example, Fu et al., (2020) encourage infrastructure development together

with policies to enhance flood defenses. This is relevant especially in Balagtas since

development specifically urbanization in many areas has changed the state and coverage of the

geographical features of the society and therefore made them much more vulnerable to

flooding. As discussed by Cea and Costabile (2022) urbanization decreases the ability of the

land to conserve and infiltrate the retained water, an issue experienced at Balagtas. In addition
to flood forecasting, the hydrological models, HEC-RAS and HEC-HMS, contribute

significantly to the urban planning strategies. As shown in research by Peker et al. (2024), these

models can be used with Geographic Information Systems (GIS) to create ranges of flood

hazards that are crucial for decision making. This is important particularly in booming Balagtas

because as the place develops fast it requires efficient stop-gap measures for flood issues.

Some of the socio-economic aspects of flood risk highlighted by Pathak et al. (2020)

are more applicable with regard to Balagtas because flood threatens the living standards of

lower-income individuals there. The complexity of flood vulnerability requires the transition

from structural interventions to combinations of socioeconomic and awareness enhancers, and

early warning systems. The situations call for area-specific interventions that acknowledge the

context of Balagtas’ communities. Liu et al. (2022) pointed out that the study of the components

that are interactive is critical to assess flood-resilient capacity. Thus, the people of Balagatas,

LGUs, and other key players and major stakeholders must work hand in hand in formulating

particular flood management policies needed in the place. This participatory method can

improve implementation of flood management measures and ensure that meeting the needs of

vulnerable groups.
2.5 Conceptual Framework

Figure 2.5.1. Conceptual Framework

This conceptual framework outlines a flood risk analysis process. It begins with input

data, which includes essential hydrological data such as topographic maps, river discharge

levels, and rainfall intensity duration frequency. These inputs provide the foundation for

modeling flood events. Next, the process involves hydrologic modeling using two simulation

softwares: HEC-HMS for simulating the rainfall-runoff process and HEC-RAS for calculating

water surface elevations across different areas of interest. These models help predict how water

will behave during a flood event. Finally, the output generates valuable information such as

flood hazard maps and a detailed analysis of flood risk. This output provides critical

information for community flood risk management and preparedness strategies.

2.5.1 Stages and Phases

Stage 1: Data Collection and Preparation

• Phase 1.1: Input Data Acquisition

o Gather essential hydrological data: topographic maps, river discharge levels,

rainfall intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves, and historical flood data.

• Phase 1.2: Data Validation and Processing

o Verify the accuracy and completeness of the collected data.

 o Process and format data for use in simulation models.

Stage 2: Hydrologic Modeling

• Phase 2.1: Rainfall-Runoff Simulation (HEC-HMS)

o Input rainfall data and define loss and transformation methods.

o Run simulations to estimate runoff volumes and timing.

• Phase 2.2: Hydraulic Modeling (HEC-RAS)

o Input flow data, and boundary conditions.

o Calculate water surface elevations and flow velocities.

o Assess the impact of various flood scenarios on different areas.

Stage 3: Output Generation and Analysis

• Phase 3.1: Flood Hazard Mapping

o Generate flood hazard maps based on simulation outputs:

▪ Identify flood-prone areas and inundation extents.

▪ Analyze flood depths and velocities across various scenarios.

• Phase 3.2: Risk Analysis and Interpretation

o Conduct a detailed analysis of flood risk:

▪ Evaluate potential impacts on infrastructure, communities, and

ecosystems.

▪ Identify vulnerable populations and critical facilities at risk.

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topics/floods/

APPENDICES
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Criteria Proposal Proposal Conditional, Re-defense, Failed
Accepted Accepted with Max Grade 75% Max Grade 65%
without Revisions,
Revisions Max Grade 90%
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objectives and a adjustments. refinement. direction.
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research some areas. refinement. inappropriate.
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of the research. elaboration.
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the proposed feasible, but some adjustments and questionable available
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changes.
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a thorough with some gaps or but lack depth or demonstrate a address the
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the proposal. understanding. adequately.
Documentation No or very minor Minor errors Noticeable errors Major errors Extensive errors
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typographical, or correction. and coherence. document.
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