Chapter 88
Chapter 88
Bond Valuation
1
Fixed Income (Debt) Securities
2
Government and Corporate Bonds
• Municipal Bond
– A bond issued by a state or local government body
• Corporate Bond
– A long-term debt instrument indicating that a corporation
has borrowed a certain amount of money and promises to
repay it in the future under clearly defined terms
Government and Corporate Bonds
• Bond Yields
– Current Yield
• A measure of a bond’s cash return for the year
• Calculated by dividing the bond’s annual interest
payment by its current price
– Yield to Maturity (YTM)
– Yield to Call (YTC)
Government and Corporate Bonds
• Bond Prices
– Though corporate bonds are held mostly by institutional
investors and are not as actively traded as stocks, it is still
important to understand market conventions for quoting
bond prices and yields.
– Basis points
• A way of quoting an interest rate such that 100 basis
points equals one percentage point
Government and Corporate Bonds
• Bond Ratings
– Independent agencies such as Moody’s, Fitch, and Standard
& Poor’s assess the riskiness of publicly traded bond issues
– These agencies derive their ratings by using financial ratio
and cash flow analyses to assess the likely payment of bond
interest and principal
– Normally an inverse relationship exists between the quality
of a bond and the rate of return that it must provide
bondholders
Credit Rating
• If a bond issuer is at risk for default, it will be
assigned a low credit rating.
• Models used to predict the default risk.
– Coverage ratios
– Leverage ratios
– Liquidity ratios
– Profitability ratios
– Cash flow to debt
Table 6.2 Moody’s and Standard & Poor’s
Bond Ratings
Note: Some ratings may be modified to show relative standing within a major rating category; for example,
Moody’s uses numerical modifiers (1, 2, 3), whereas Standard & Poor’s uses plus (+) and minus (−) signs.
Sources: Based on Moody’s Investors Service, Inc., and based on Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
Rates of Return on Bonds
• The Computations of Bond Return
– Holding period return
Pi, t +1 + Int i, t
HPR i, t =
Pi, t
where:
HPRi,t = the holding period return for bond i during period t
Pi,t+1 = the market price of bond i at the end of period t
Pi,t = the market price of bond i at the beginning of period t
Inti,t = the interest payments on bond i during period t
n C M
B0 = t
+ n
(6.5)
t =1 (1 + r ) (1 + r )
1+ 1 +
2 2
• Bond Values for Semiannual Coupons
C / 2 1 M
B0 = 1 − + (6.6a)
r/2 r
2n
r
2n
1 + 1 +
2 2
29
Bond Valuation
• Changes in Bond Prices
– When the required return rises, the bond price
falls, and when the required return falls, the bond
price rises
– Required Returns and Bond Prices
• Discount
– The amount by which a bond sells below its par value
» When the required return is greater than the
coupon rate, the bond’s value will be less than its
par value
• Premium
– The amount by which a bond sells above its par value
» When the required return falls below the coupon
rate, the bond’s value will be greater than par
Determinants of Bond Prices
• Market interest rates
• Credit ratings
• Maturity
Bond Prices and Market Interest Rates
• Bonds are very sensitive to market interest rates.
• If you sell a bond in the secondary market before it matures, the
value of the bond will be affected by current market interest rates.
– When current interest rates are greater than a bond’s coupon
rate, the bond will sell at a discount (a price less than its face
value),
– When current interest rates are less than a bond’s coupon rate,
the bond will sell at a premium (a price more than its face
value).
What Determines Interest Rates
• Inverse relationship with bond prices
• Forecasting interest rates
• Fundamental determinants of interest rates
i = RFR + I + RP
where:
RFR = real risk-free rate of interest
I = expected rate of inflation
RP = risk premium
– Conceptually
i = f (Economic Forces + Issue Characteristics)
What Determines Interest Rates
• Effect of Economic Factors
– Real growth rate
– Tightness or ease of capital market
– Expected inflation
– Supply and demand of loanable funds
• Impact of Bond Characteristics
– Credit quality
– Term to maturity
– Indenture provisions
– Foreign bond risk including exchange rate risk
and country risk
Bond Pricing
• Interest Rates and Bond Prices
– At a higher interest rate, the present value of the payments received
by the bondholders is lower.
– Bond price falls as the market interest rates rise.
35
Premium and Discount Bonds
• A premium bond is any bond that is currently trading at a
price above par.
• A discount bond is a bond trading at a price lower than par.
• Note: Bonds mature at a par value.
36
Maturity and Prices
(1C
T
PB = t
+
ParValueT
+ r) (1+ r )
t T
t =1
39
Bond Yields - Example
• Suppose an 8% coupon (semiannual payments),
$1000 par value, 30-year bond is selling at $1276.76.
What is its yield to maturity?
(1C
T
PB = t
+
ParValueT
+ r) (1+ r )
t T
t =1
40
Yield to Maturity Example
10 yr Maturity
Coupon Rate = 7%
Price = $950
950 =
20
35 1000
+
t =1 (1+ r ) (1+ r )
t T
r = 3.8635%