Volume 10, Issue 3, March – 2025 International Journal of Innovative Science and Research Technology

ISSN No:-2456-2165 https://doi.org/10.38124/ijisrt/25mar1377

Mathematical Models of Human Migration:

A Review and Analysis
Dr. Mitat Uysal
Dogus University

Publication Date: 2025/04/02

Abstract: Human migration has been a central aspect of human history, driven by numerous factors such as economic
opportunities, political instability, environmental changes, and social dynamics. In recent years, mathematical models
have played a significant role in understanding migration patterns, providing insights into the decision-making processes
of migrants and the impacts of migration on both sending and receiving regions. This paper explores various
mathematical approaches to human migration, including models based on differential equations, network theory, and
agent-based simulations. By reviewing these models, we aim to understand the key drivers of migration, the dynamics of
migratory flows, and the potential for policy interventions.

Keywords: Human Migration,Dynamics of Migratory Flows,Migration Decision Models,Agent Based Models,Gravity Models of
Migration.

How to Cite: Dr. Mitat Uysal (2025) Mathematical Models of Human Migration: A Review and Analysis. International Journal
of Innovative Science and Research Technology, 10(3), 1772-1777.
https://doi.org/10.38124/ijisrt/25mar1377

I. INTRODUCTİON

Human migration is a complex phenomenon

influenced by a combination of social, political, economic, (1)
and environmental factors. The study of migration patterns
is critical for understanding population dynamics, Where Mij represents the migration flow from region i
urbanization, labor markets, and the global redistribution of to region j, Pi and Pj are the populations of the two regions,
resources. Over the years, various mathematical models dij is the distance between them, and β is a parameter that
have been developed to quantifyorganizations focused on accounts for the impact of distance on migration flow. The
migration management [1]. constant A is often calibrated using empirical data.

This paper reviews several mathematical models of The gravity model has been extensively applied to
human migration, ranging from simple linear models to study migration flows within countries, between countries,
more complex network-based approaches. We discuss their and across continents. However, its simplicity limits its
assumptions, applications, and limitations, and explore how ability to capture the complex factors that drive migration,
these models can inform our understanding of migration such as economic opportunities, social networks, and
dynamics. political instability [3].

 Migration Decision Models

II. MATHEMATİCAL MODELS OF HUMAN
MİGRATİON In addition to the gravity model, migration decision
models have been developed to understand the choices
 Gravity Models of Migration individuals or households make when deciding to migrate.
These models are typically based on utility maximization
One of the most widely used approaches in migration
studies is the gravity model, which is based on the analogy frameworks, where the individual’s decision to migrate is
to Newton's law of gravitation. In its simplest form, the driven by the comparison of the expected utility of staying
gravity model posits that the migration flow between two in the home country versus migrating to a new location [4].
regions is proportional to the product of their populations
and inversely proportional to the distance between them [2]. The utility function can be represented as:
This model can be represented as

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Volume 10, Issue 3, March – 2025 International Journal of Innovative Science and Research Technology
ISSN No:-2456-2165 https://doi.org/10.38124/ijisrt/25mar1377

Where Ui is the utility derived from migrating, Wi is III. APPLİCATİONS OF MİGRATİON MODELS
the expected income in the destination region, Si is the
social environment, and Ei is the environmental quality of Mathematical models of migration have been applied
the destination. The parameters α, β, and γ reflect the to various contexts, including urban planning, refugee
relative importance of these factors in the decision-making resettlement, labor market dynamics, and climate change-
process. induced migration [9]. By understanding migration patterns,
these models can inform policy decisions on topics such as
These models can be extended to incorporate various border control, the allocation of resources in receiving
factors such as the presence of migration networks, the role regions, and the support of migrant communities.
of education and skills, and the effects of migration policies
[5]. For example, migration models have been used to
predict the impact of climate change on migration patterns,
 Network Models of Migration as rising sea levels and extreme weather events are expected
Network theory has also been applied to human to displace large populations [10]. Similarly, gravity models
migration, particularly to capture the role of social networks have been applied to study the effects of trade agreements
in facilitating migration. According to network models, and regional integration on migration flows [11].
migrants often rely on existing connections to move from
one place to another. These networks reduce the costs and IV. LİMİTATİONS AND FUTURE DİRECTİONS
risks of migration, as migrants can rely on family members,
friends, or community groups for support. Despite the advancements in mathematical models of
migration, several limitations remain. Many models rely on
A network model of migration can be represented as a simplifying assumptions, such as the homogeneity of
directed graph where nodes represent individuals or migrants or the assumption that migration decisions are
households, and edges represent migration links. The made independently. Additionally, the complexity of human
migration flow between two regions is influenced not only behavior, including the role of emotions, culture, and
by economic and environmental factors but also by the politics, is difficult to capture in traditional models.
presence and strength of social networks [6].
Future research could explore more sophisticated
Such models can provide insights into the role of models that integrate these factors, as well as data-driven
information flow, trust, and social capital in shaping approaches that use machine learning and big data to better
migration patterns [7]. predict migration patterns [12]. Additionally, more attention
is needed on the spatial and temporal dynamics of migration,
 Agent-Based Models (ABMs) as migration is not always a one-time event but a process
Agent-based models (ABMs) have gained popularity in that can evolve over time.
migration research due to their ability to simulate the
behavior of individual migrants in a spatially explicit V. CONCLUSİON
environment. In ABMs, agents (representing individual
migrants) interact with one another and the environment, Mathematical models of human migration have
making decisions based on rules that reflect real-world provided valuable insights into the factors that drive
migration behaviors. migration and the effects of migration on both sending and
receiving regions. [13-25]While existing models offer
These models allow for the incorporation of important contributions, there is still a need for more
heterogeneity among migrants, such as differences in comprehensive and dynamic approaches that can better
income, education, and family status. Additionally, ABMs capture the complexities of human migration. Future
can simulate the effects of policy interventions, such as advancements in modeling techniques and data availability
changes in immigration laws or the provision of migration will continue to improve our understanding of migration and
incentives [8]. inform the development of more effective migration
policies.
A typical ABM for migration can be described by the
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Volume 10, Issue 3, March – 2025 International Journal of Innovative Science and Research Technology
ISSN No:-2456-2165 https://doi.org/10.38124/ijisrt/25mar1377

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