Financial Modeling
Financial Modeling
Revenue
Operating Expenses
Personnel $ 328,000 $ 492,000 $ 656,000
Marketing 164,000 246,000 328,000
Other 82,000 123,000 164,000
Depreciation 40,000 90,000 146,000
Total OPEX $ 614,000 $ 951,000 $ 1,294,000
Revenue
New Customers $ 50,000 75,000 100,000
AOV $ 40 $ 40 $ 40
Refunds (as % of rev) 8% 8% 8%
Discounts 10% 10% 10%
0 0 0
COGS 0 0 0
Product 35% 35% 35%
Fulfillment 5% 10% 10%
Merchant Services 5% 5% 5%
0 0 0
Operating Expenses 0 0 0
Personnel 20% 20% 20%
Marketing 10% 10% 10%
Other 5% 5% 5%
Tax Rate 20% 20% 20%
Revenue
New Customers 50,000 75,000 100,000
AOV $ 40 $ 40 $ 40
Refunds (as % of rev) 8% 8% 8%
Discounts 10% 10% 10%
COGS
Product 35% 35% 35%
Fulfillment 5% 10% 10%
Merchant Services 5% 5% 5%
Operating Expenses
Personnel 20% 20% 20%
Marketing 10% 10% 10%
Other 5% 5% 5%
Tax Rate 20% 20% 20%
Revenue
New Customers 100,000 200,000 300,000
AOV $ 45 $ 45 $ 45
Refunds (as % of rev) 8% 8% 8%
Discounts 10% 10% 10%
COGS
Product 35% 35% 35%
Fulfillment 5% 10% 10%
Merchant Services 5% 5% 5%
Operating Expenses
Personnel 20% 20% 20%
Marketing 10% 10% 10%
Other 5% 5% 5%
Tax Rate 25% 25% 25%
Year 4
Scenario 1
$ 6,000,000
(480,000)
(600,000)
$ 4,920,000
$ 1,722,000
492,000
246,000
$ 2,460,000
$ 2,460,000
50%
$ 984,000
492,000
246,000
121,000
$ 1,843,000
$ 617,000
$ 96,000
$ 521,000
$ 104,200
$ 416,800
8%
$ 738,000
150,000
$ 40
8%
10%
0
0
35%
10%
5%
0
0
20%
10%
5%
20%
150,000
$ 40
8%
10%
35%
10%
5%
20%
10%
5%
20%
400,000
$ 45
8%
10%
35%
10%
5%
20%
10%
5%
25%
Income Statement Year 1 Year 2 Year 3
Revenue
Operating Expenses
Personnel $ 637,500 $ 850,000 $ 1,275,000
Marketing 318,750 425,000 637,500
Other 159,375 212,500 318,750
Depreciation 31,667 65,000 103,333
Total OPEX $ 1,147,292 $ 1,552,500 $ 2,334,583
ASSUMPTIONS
Revenue
New Customers $ 75,000 $ 100,000 $ 150,000
AOV $ 50 $ 50 $ 50
Refunds (as % of rev) 5% 5% 5%
Discounts 10% 10% 10%
COGS
Product 35% 35% 35%
Fulfillment 5% 5% 5%
Merchant Services 3% 3% 3%
Operating Expenses
Personnel 20% 20% 20%
Marketing 10% 10% 10%
Other 5% 5% 5%
Tax Rate 21% 21% 21%
Year 4
$ 12,500,000
(625,000)
(1,250,000)
$ 10,625,000
$ 3,718,750
531,250
318,750
$ 4,568,750
$ 6,056,250
57%
$ 2,125,000
1,062,500
531,250
86,667
$ 3,805,417
$ 2,250,833
$ 96,000
$ 2,154,833
$ 452,515
$ 1,702,318
16%
$ 2,337,500
$ 250,000
$ 50
5%
10%
35%
5%
3%
20%
10%
5%
21%
Capex & Depreciation Useful Life (Years) Year 1 Year 2
Capex
Servers 5 $ 75,000
Custom Software 2 $ 50,000 $ 100,000
Forklift 6
Total Capex $ 125,000 $ 100,000
Depreciation
Servers $ 15,000 $ 15,000
Custom Software $ 25,000 $ 75,000
Forklift
Total D&A $ 40,000 $ 90,000
Year 3 Year 4
$ 100,000
$ 30,000
$ 130,000 $ -
$ 15,000 $ 15,000
$ 125,000 $ 100,000
$ 5,000 $ 5,000
$ 145,000 $ 120,000
Balance Sheet Dec 31, Year 0 Year 1
Historicals
ASSETS
LIABILITIES
EQUITY
Balance Check - -
ASSUMPTIONS
Net Borrowing
Debt Payments $ 600,000
Interest Rate 8%
Interest Payments $ 192,000
Year 2 Year 3 Year 4
- - -
$ 1,500,000
$ 900,000 $ 900,000 $ 900,000
8% 8% 8%
$ 240,000 $ 168,000 $ 96,000
Cash Flow Statement Year 1 Year 2 Year 3
Operating Activities
Depreciation 40,000 90,000 145,000
Chg in AR (39,375) (53,125) (106,250)
Chg in AP 116,250 63,750 127,500
Chg in Def Rev 70,625 116,875 297,500
Operating Cash Flow $ 564,791 $ 715,200 $ 1,357,372
Investing Activities
Capex 125,000 100,000 130,000
Financing Activities
Debt Repayment (600,000) (900,000) (900,000)
Net Borrowings - 1,500,000 -
NCF from Financing (600,000) 600,000 (900,000)
$ 1,702,318
120,000
(212,500)
255,000
552,500
$ 2,417,318
$ 2,417,318
(900,000)
-
(900,000)
$ 1,517,318