Simple Statistical Methods for Software

Engineering Data and Patterns 1st Edition C.

Ravindranath Pandian pdf download

https://ebookfinal.com/download/simple-statistical-methods-for-
software-engineering-data-and-patterns-1st-edition-c-
ravindranath-pandian/

Explore and download more ebooks or textbooks

at ebookfinal.com
Here are some recommended products for you. Click the link to
download, or explore more at ebookfinal

Statistical Methods for Fuzzy Data 1st Edition Reinhard

Viertl

https://ebookfinal.com/download/statistical-methods-for-fuzzy-
data-1st-edition-reinhard-viertl/

Statistical Methods for Spatial Data Analysis 1st Edition

Oliver Schabenberger

https://ebookfinal.com/download/statistical-methods-for-spatial-data-
analysis-1st-edition-oliver-schabenberger/

Statistical Methods for Microarray Data Analysis Methods

and Protocols 1st Edition Andrei Y. Yakovlev

https://ebookfinal.com/download/statistical-methods-for-microarray-
data-analysis-methods-and-protocols-1st-edition-andrei-y-yakovlev/

Statistical Mechanics Made Simple A Guide for Students and

Researchers Daniel C. Mattis

https://ebookfinal.com/download/statistical-mechanics-made-simple-a-
guide-for-students-and-researchers-daniel-c-mattis/
Nonparametric Statistical Methods For Complete and
Censored Data 1st Edition M.M. Desu (Author)

https://ebookfinal.com/download/nonparametric-statistical-methods-for-
complete-and-censored-data-1st-edition-m-m-desu-author/

Statistical Methods for Psychology Seventh Edition David

C. Howell

https://ebookfinal.com/download/statistical-methods-for-psychology-
seventh-edition-david-c-howell/

Object oriented software engineering using UML Patterns

and Java 3rd, intern. Edition Bruegge

https://ebookfinal.com/download/object-oriented-software-engineering-
using-uml-patterns-and-java-3rd-intern-edition-bruegge/

Statistical Methods for the Analysis of Biomedical Data

Second Edition Robert F. Woolson

https://ebookfinal.com/download/statistical-methods-for-the-analysis-
of-biomedical-data-second-edition-robert-f-woolson/

Machine Learning for Spatial Environmental Data Theory

Applications and Software Environmental Sciences
Environmental Engineering Mikhail Kanevski
https://ebookfinal.com/download/machine-learning-for-spatial-
environmental-data-theory-applications-and-software-environmental-
sciences-environmental-engineering-mikhail-kanevski/
Simple Statistical Methods for Software Engineering
Data and Patterns 1st Edition C. Ravindranath Pandian
Digital Instant Download
Author(s): C. Ravindranath Pandian, Murali Kumar
ISBN(s): 9781439816615, 1439816611
Edition: 1
File Details: PDF, 18.68 MB
Year: 2015
Language: english
 SIMPLE
STATISTICAL
METHODS FOR
SOFTWARE
ENGINEERING
DATA AND PATTERNS

© 2015 by Taylor & Francis Group, LLC

 OTHER TITLES FROM AUERBACH PUBLICATIONS AND CRC PRESS

Projects and Complexity Program Management Leadership:

Francesco Varanini Creating Successful Team Dynamics
ISBN: 978-1-4665-0279-6 Mark C. Bojeun
ISBN: 978-1-4665-7709-1
Project Management Concepts,
Methods, and Techniques Applying Guiding Principles of
Clause H. Maley Effective Program Delivery
ISBN: 978-1-4665-0288-8 Kerry R. Wills
ISBN: 978-1-4665-8789-2
The New Triple Constraints for
Sustainable Projects, Programs, and From Projects to Programs:
Portfolios A Project Manager’s Journey
Gregory T. Haugan Sami Penkar
ISBN: 978-1-4665-0518-6 ISBN: 978-1-4665-9181-3

Program Management: A Life Cycle Implementing Program Management:

Approach Templates and Forms Aligned
Ginger Levin with the Standard for Program
ISBN: 978-1-4665-1687-8 Management, Third Edition
Ginger Levin
The Complete Project Management ISBN: 978-1-4665-9771-6
Office Handbook, Third Edition
Gerard M. Hill, PMP® Exam Challenge! Sixth Edition
ISBN: 978-1-4665-6631-6 J. LeRoy Ward and Ginger Levin
ISBN: 978-1-4665-9982-6
Successful Program Management:
Complexity Theory, Communication, PgMP® Exam Practice Test and
and Leadership Study GuideFourth Edition
Wanda Curlee Ginger Levin and J. LeRoy Ward
ISBN: 978-1-4665-6879-2 ISBN: 978-1-4822-0135-2

Construction Program Management PgMP® Exam Challenge!

Joseph Delaney Ginger Levin and J. LeRoy Ward
ISBN: 978-1-4665-7504-2 ISBN: 978-1-4822-0208-3

Sustainable Program Management PMP® Exam Practice Test and Study

Gregory T. Haugan Guide, Ninth Edition
ISBN: 978-1-4665-7516-5 Ginger Levin and J. LeRoy Ward
ISBN: 978-1-4822-0224-3
Leading Virtual Project Teams:
Adapting Leadership Theories and Empowering Project Teams:
Communications Techniques to Using Project Followership to
21st Century Organizations Improve Performance
Margaret R. Lee Marco Sampietro
ISBN: 978-1-4665-7688-9 ISBN: 978-1-4822-1755-1

Creative Efficient and Effective PfMP® Exam Practice Tests

Project Management and Study Guide
Ralph L. Kliem Ginger Levin and J. LeRoy Ward
ISBN: 978-1-4665-7692-6 ISBN: 978-1-4822-5100-5

© 2015 by Taylor & Francis Group, LLC

 SIMPLE
STATISTICAL
METHODS FOR
SOFTWARE
ENGINEERING
DATA AND PATTERNS

C. Ravindranath Pandian
Murali Kumar S K

© 2015 by Taylor & Francis Group, LLC

MATLAB® is a trademark of The MathWorks, Inc. and is used with permission. The MathWorks does
not warrant the accuracy of the text or exercises in this book. This book’s use or discussion of MAT-
LAB® software or related products does not constitute endorsement or sponsorship by The MathWorks
of a particular pedagogical approach or particular use of the MATLAB® software.

CRC Press
Taylor & Francis Group
6000 Broken Sound Parkway NW, Suite 300
Boca Raton, FL 33487-2742
© 2015 by Taylor & Francis Group, LLC
CRC Press is an imprint of Taylor & Francis Group, an Informa business

No claim to original U.S. Government works

Version Date: 20150428

International Standard Book Number-13: 978-1-4398-1662-2 (eBook - PDF)

This book contains information obtained from authentic and highly regarded sources. Reasonable
efforts have been made to publish reliable data and information, but the author and publisher cannot
assume responsibility for the validity of all materials or the consequences of their use. The authors and
publishers have attempted to trace the copyright holders of all material reproduced in this publication
and apologize to copyright holders if permission to publish in this form has not been obtained. If any
copyright material has not been acknowledged please write and let us know so we may rectify in any
future reprint.

Except as permitted under U.S. Copyright Law, no part of this book may be reprinted, reproduced,
transmitted, or utilized in any form by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now known or
hereafter invented, including photocopying, microfilming, and recording, or in any information stor-
age or retrieval system, without written permission from the publishers.

For permission to photocopy or use material electronically from this work, please access www.copy-
right.com (http://www.copyright.com/) or contact the Copyright Clearance Center, Inc. (CCC), 222
Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923, 978-750-8400. CCC is a not-for-profit organization that pro-
vides licenses and registration for a variety of users. For organizations that have been granted a photo-
copy license by the CCC, a separate system of payment has been arranged.

Trademark Notice: Product or corporate names may be trademarks or registered trademarks, and are
used only for identification and explanation without intent to infringe.
Visit the Taylor & Francis Web site at
http://www.taylorandfrancis.com
and the CRC Press Web site at
http://www.crcpress.com
Contents

Preface..........................................................................................................xvii
Acknowledgment...........................................................................................xix
Introduction..................................................................................................xxi
Authors....................................................................................................... xxiii

Section I  Data
1 Data, Data Quality, and Descriptive Statistics.......................................3
The Challenge That Persists..........................................................................3
Bringing Data to the Table Requires Motivation..........................................5
Data Quality.................................................................................................5
On Scales.............................................................................................5
Error....................................................................................................6
Data Stratification...............................................................................7
Visual Summary...........................................................................................7
Numerical Descriptive Statistics (Numerical Summary of Data)................10
Special Statistics................................................................................12
Three Categories of Descriptive Statistics...........................................12
Case Study: Interpretation of Effort Variance Descriptive Statistics............12
Application Notes.......................................................................................14
Concluding Remarks..................................................................................14
Review Questions.......................................................................................15
Exercises.....................................................................................................16
Appendix 1.1: Definition of Descriptive Statistics.......................................16
Number of Data Points......................................................................16
Sum...................................................................................................16
Variance.............................................................................................16
Standard Deviation............................................................................16
Maximum..........................................................................................17
Minimum..........................................................................................17
Range................................................................................................17

© 2015 by Taylor & Francis Group, LLC

vi ◾ Contents

Mode.................................................................................................17
Median..............................................................................................17
Mean.................................................................................................18
Kurtosis (Flatness of Distribution).....................................................18
Skewness (Skew of Distribution)........................................................18
References...................................................................................................18
Suggested Readings....................................................................................19
2 Truth and Central Tendency.................................................................21
Mean..........................................................................................................21
Uncertainty in Mean: Standard Error................................................22
Median.......................................................................................................23
Mode..........................................................................................................25
Geometric Mean.........................................................................................25
Harmonic Mean.........................................................................................27
Interconnected Estimates............................................................................27
Weighted Mean..........................................................................................28
Robust Means.............................................................................................29
Trimmed Mean.................................................................................29
Winsorized Mean..............................................................................30
Midhinge...........................................................................................30
Midrange...........................................................................................30
Tukey’s Trimean................................................................................30
Mean Derived from Geometrical Perspectives...................................30
Two Categories...........................................................................................30
Category 1.........................................................................................30
Category 2.........................................................................................31
Truth..........................................................................................................31
Application Notes.......................................................................................32
Managing Software Projects Using Central Tendency Values............32
Making Predictions...........................................................................32
Case Study: Shifting the Mean...................................................................33
Review Questions...................................................................................... 34
Exercises.................................................................................................... 34
References.................................................................................................. 34
Suggested Reading..................................................................................... 34
3 Data Dispersion.....................................................................................35
Range-Based Empirical Representation......................................................35
Dispersion as Deviation from Center..........................................................38
Average Deviation..............................................................................39
Average Absolute Deviation...............................................................39
Median Absolute Deviation...............................................................39

© 2015 by Taylor & Francis Group, LLC

 Contents ◾ vii

Sum of Squares and Variance........................................................... 42

Standard Deviation........................................................................... 44
Skewness and Kurtosis................................................................................45
Pearson’s Skewness.............................................................................45
Bowley’s Skewness.............................................................................45
Third Standardized Moment.............................................................45
Kurtosis............................................................................................ 46
Coefficient of Dispersion............................................................................47
Coefficient of Range..........................................................................47
Coefficient of Quartile Deviation......................................................47
Coefficient of Mean Deviation..........................................................48
Coefficient of MAD..........................................................................48
Coefficient of Standard Deviation.....................................................48
Summary of Coefficients of Dispersion..............................................48
Application Contexts..................................................................................49
In a Nutshell...............................................................................................50
Measures of Dispersion......................................................................50
Nature of Dispersion.........................................................................50
Coefficients of Dispersion..................................................................50
Case Study: Dispersion Analysis of Data Sample........................................51
Review Questions.......................................................................................52
Exercises.....................................................................................................52
Reference....................................................................................................52
Suggested Readings....................................................................................52
4 Tukey’s Box Plot: Exploratory Analysis................................................53
The Structure of the Box Plot......................................................................53
Customer Satisfaction Data Analysis Using the Box Plot............................55
Tailoring the Box Plot.................................................................................57
Applications of Box Plot.............................................................................57
Seeing Process Drift...........................................................................58
Detecting Skew..................................................................................58
Seeing Variation.................................................................................58
Risk Measurement.............................................................................59
Outlier Detection..............................................................................59
Comparison of Processes...................................................................59
Improvement Planning......................................................................59
Core Benefits of Box Plot............................................................................60
Twin Box Plot.............................................................................................61
Holistic Test......................................................................................62
Application Summary: Twin Box Plot........................................................63
Case Study 1: Business Perspectives from CSAT Box Plots........................ 64
CSAT Analysis across SBUs.............................................................. 64

© 2015 by Taylor & Francis Group, LLC

viii ◾ Contents

Case Study 2: Process Perspectives from CSAT Box Plots...........................65

CSAT Analysis across Attributes....................................................... 66
Review Questions...................................................................................... 66
Exercises.................................................................................................... 66
References...................................................................................................67

Section II  Metrics

5 Deriving Metrics...................................................................................71
Creating Meaning in Data..........................................................................71
Deriving Metrics as a Key Performance Indicator.......................................71
Estimation and Metrics..............................................................................72
Paradigms for Metrics.................................................................................72
GQM Paradigm..........................................................................................73
Difficulties with Applying GQM to Designing a Metrics System...............74
Need-Driven Metrics..................................................................................75
Meaning of Metrics: Interpreting Metric Data...........................................76
Our Categories of Metrics..........................................................................78
Business Metrics.........................................................................................78
Project Metrics............................................................................................78
Process Metrics...........................................................................................79
Subprocess Metrics.....................................................................................79
Product Metrics..........................................................................................80
Case Study: Power of Definitions................................................................80
Review Questions.......................................................................................82
Exercises.....................................................................................................82
References...................................................................................................82
Suggested Readings....................................................................................83
6 Achieving Excellence in Software Development Using Metrics............85
Examples of Project Metrics........................................................................85
Time to Deliver.................................................................................85
Cost...................................................................................................86
Quality..............................................................................................86
Productivity.......................................................................................86
Time to Repair..................................................................................86
Customer Satisfaction........................................................................86
Requirement Volatility.......................................................................86
Examples of Product Metrics......................................................................86
Requirement Size...............................................................................86
Design Complexity............................................................................87
Code Size...........................................................................................89
Code Complexity............................................................................. 90

© 2015 by Taylor & Francis Group, LLC

 Contents ◾ ix

Defect Density.................................................................................. 90
Defect Classification..........................................................................91
Reliability..........................................................................................91
Examples of Process Metrics.......................................................................91
Review Effectiveness..........................................................................91
Test Effectiveness...............................................................................91
Test Coverage....................................................................................92
Subprocess Metrics.....................................................................................92
Converting Metrics into Business Information...........................................93
Project Dashboard.............................................................................93
Product Health Report......................................................................95
Statistical Process Control Charts......................................................96
Case Study: Early Size Measurements.........................................................96
Project Progress Using Earned Value Metrics..............................................97
Tracking Progress..............................................................................97
Tracking Project Cost........................................................................98
Review Questions.....................................................................................100
Exercises...................................................................................................101
References.................................................................................................101
Suggested Readings..................................................................................102
7 Maintenance Metrics...........................................................................103
Fusion of Frameworks in Software Maintenance......................................103
Maintainability Index......................................................................105
Change Requests Count..................................................................105
Customer Satisfaction Index............................................................106
Resource Utilization........................................................................107
Service-Level Agreement Compliances............................................107
Percentage of On-Time Delivery......................................................109
Enhancement Size...........................................................................109
Bug Complexity............................................................................... 110
Effort Variance (EV)........................................................................ 111
Schedule Variance (SV)................................................................... 111
Quality............................................................................................ 111
Quality of Enhancement........................................................ 111
Quality of Bug Fix.................................................................. 111
Productivity.....................................................................................112
Time to Repair (TTR)....................................................................112
Backlog Index..................................................................................113
Bug Classification............................................................................113
Fix Quality......................................................................................113
Refactoring Metrics.........................................................................113
Reliability........................................................................................113

© 2015 by Taylor & Francis Group, LLC

x ◾ Contents

Metric-Based Dashboards.........................................................................113
Review Questions..................................................................................... 115
Exercises................................................................................................... 115
References................................................................................................. 115
Suggested Readings.................................................................................. 116
8 Software Test Metrics.......................................................................... 117
Project Metrics.......................................................................................... 117
Schedule Variance............................................................................ 117
Effort Variance................................................................................ 117
Cost................................................................................................. 118
Human Productivity........................................................................ 118
Requirement Stability...................................................................... 118
Resource Utilization........................................................................ 118
Customer Satisfaction...................................................................... 119
Test Effectiveness............................................................................. 119
Process Metrics......................................................................................... 119
Defect Removal Efficiency...............................................................120
Test Cases Count.............................................................................120
Test Coverage..................................................................................121
Functionality Coverage..........................................................121
Code Coverage.......................................................................121
Percentage of Bad Fix......................................................................122
Product Metrics........................................................................................122
Defect Counts.................................................................................122
Defect Arrival Rate.................................................................122
Defect Closure Rate...............................................................122
Component Defect Count......................................................123
Component Defect Density.............................................................123
Defect Classification........................................................................124
Testing Size: Test Case Point....................................................................124
Risk Metric...............................................................................................125
Predicting Quality....................................................................................126
Metrics for Test Automation.....................................................................126
Return on Investment......................................................................126
Percentage Automatable...................................................................126
Automation Progress........................................................................127
Case Study: Defect Age Data....................................................................127
Review Questions.....................................................................................128
Exercises...................................................................................................129
References.................................................................................................129
Suggested Readings..................................................................................129

© 2015 by Taylor & Francis Group, LLC

 Contents ◾ xi

9 Agile Metrics.......................................................................................131
Classic Metrics: Unpopular Science..........................................................132
Two Sides of Classic Metrics.....................................................................133
Metrics for Agile: Humanization..............................................................134
The Price of Humanization.......................................................................134
Common Agile Metrics............................................................................135
Velocity............................................................................................135
Story Point.......................................................................................135
Technical Debt................................................................................136
Tests................................................................................................136
Level of Automation........................................................................136
Earned Business Value (EBV)..........................................................136
Burn-Down Chart...........................................................................136
Burn-Up Chart................................................................................136
Burn Up with Scope Line................................................................137
Adding More Agile Metrics......................................................................139
Case Study: Earned Value Management in the Agile World.....................140
Review Questions..................................................................................... 141
Exercise..................................................................................................... 141
References................................................................................................. 141
Suggested Reading....................................................................................142

Section III  Laws of Probability

10 Pattern Extraction Using Histogram..................................................145
Choosing the Number of Intervals............................................................148
Square Root Formula.......................................................................148
Alternate Approaches.......................................................................148
Exploratory Iterations......................................................................148
Process Signature......................................................................................150
Uniqueness of Histogram Signature.......................................................... 151
Histogram Shapes..................................................................................... 152
Mixture.................................................................................................... 153
Process Capability Histogram................................................................... 153
Histogram as a Judge................................................................................ 155
From One Point to One Histogram..........................................................156
Case Study: Goal Entitlement...................................................................156
Appendix 10.1: Creating a Histogram....................................................... 158
Interpretation............................................................................................ 159
Review Questions.....................................................................................160
Exercises...................................................................................................160
References................................................................................................. 161

© 2015 by Taylor & Francis Group, LLC

xii ◾ Contents

11 The Law of Large Numbers.................................................................163

Life Is a Random Variable.........................................................................164
Plots of Probability Distribution......................................................172
Bayes Theorem.......................................................................................... 174
A Clinical Lab Example................................................................... 174
Application of Bayes Theorem in Software Development................. 176
A Comparison of Application of the Four Distributions and Bayes
Theorem....................................................................................................177
Review Questions.....................................................................................178
Exercises...................................................................................................179
References.................................................................................................179
Suggested Reading....................................................................................179
12 Law of Rare Events..............................................................................181
Exponential Distribution..........................................................................182
Poisson Distribution.................................................................................187
A Historic Poisson Analysis: Deaths of Prussian Cavalrymen..........189
Analysis of Module Defects Based on Poisson Distribution.............190
Study of Customer Complaint Arrival Rate Based on Poisson
Distribution.....................................................................................192
Applying Poisson Distribution to Software Maintenance................193
Bathtub Curve of Reliability: A Universal Model of Rare Events..............193
Nonhomogeneous Poisson Process (NHPP).............................................195
Goel–Okumoto (GO-NHPP) Model.......................................................197
Different Applications of Goel–Okumoto (GO) Model............................198
Review Questions.....................................................................................201
Exercises...................................................................................................201
References.................................................................................................202
Suggested Readings..................................................................................202
13 Grand Social Law: The Bell Curve......................................................205
First-Order Approximation of Variation...................................................209
Estimation Error....................................................................................... 211
Viewing Requirement Volatility................................................................212
Risk Measurement....................................................................................213
Combining Normal Probability Density Functions (PDF): The Law of
Quadrature...............................................................................................216
An Inverse Problem................................................................................... 219
Process Capability Indices........................................................................221
z Score Calculation...................................................................................223
Sigma Level: Safety Margin......................................................................225
Statistical Tests.........................................................................................227
Review Questions.................................................................................... 228

© 2015 by Taylor & Francis Group, LLC

 Contents ◾ xiii

Exercises...................................................................................................229
References.................................................................................................229
Suggested Readings..................................................................................230
14 Law of Compliance: Uniform Distribution.........................................231
Bounded Distribution...............................................................................233
Random Number Generators....................................................................233
Shuttle Time............................................................................................ 234
Parkinson’s Law....................................................................................... 234
Censored Process......................................................................................235
Perfect Departure.....................................................................................235
Estimating Calibration Uncertainty with Minimal Information..............235
Review Questions.....................................................................................237
Exercises...................................................................................................237
References.................................................................................................237
Suggested Readings..................................................................................237
15 Law for Estimation: Triangular Distribution.....................................239
Bell Curve Morphs into a Triangle...........................................................240
Mental Model for Estimation...................................................................241
Mean........................................................................................................242
Median.....................................................................................................243
Other Statistics.........................................................................................245
Skew.........................................................................................................245
Three-Point Schedule Estimation..............................................................247
Beta Option..............................................................................................247
Triangular Risk Estimation......................................................................248
Parameter Extraction................................................................................249
Review Questions.....................................................................................250
Exercises...................................................................................................250
References.................................................................................................250
16 The Law of Life: Pareto Distribution—80/20 Aphorism....................253
Structure of Pareto....................................................................................254
An Example..............................................................................................257
The 80/20 Law: Vital Few and Trivial Many............................................257
Generalized Pareto Distribution.............................................................. 260
Duane’s Model..........................................................................................261
Tailing a Body..........................................................................................261
Review Questions.....................................................................................262
Exercises...................................................................................................262
References.................................................................................................262

© 2015 by Taylor & Francis Group, LLC

xiv ◾ Contents

Section IV Tailed Distributions

17 Software Size Growth: Log-Normal Distribution...............................267
Log-Normal Processes..............................................................................267
Building a Log-Normal PDF for Software Design Complexity.................270
Working with a Pictorial Approach...........................................................271
Application of the Log-Normal Model 1.........................................276
Application of the Log-Normal Model 2.........................................277
Features Addition in Software Enhancement............................................277
A Log-Normal PDF for Change Requests.................................................278
From Pareto to Log-Normal.....................................................................279
Some Properties of Log-Normal Distribution...........................................279
Case Study—Analysis of Failure Interval................................................. 280
Review Questions.....................................................................................283
Exercises.................................................................................................. 284
References................................................................................................ 284
18 Gamma Distribution: Making Use of Minimal Data..........................285
Gamma Curves for Clarification Time Data............................................288
Shifting the Gamma PDF.........................................................................290
Generating Clarification Time Scenarios with Gamma PDF Built
from Minimal Data..................................................................................291
Modes..............................................................................................292
Tails.................................................................................................293
Scenario Analysis.............................................................................294
NIST Formula for Gamma Parameter Extraction....................................295
Applying Gamma Distribution to Software Reliability Growth
Modeling..................................................................................................295
Review Questions.....................................................................................297
Exercises...................................................................................................297
References.................................................................................................298
19 Weibull Distribution: A Tool for Engineers........................................299
Weibull Curves.........................................................................................301
Parameter Extraction................................................................................301
Rules of Thumb...............................................................................301
Moments Method............................................................................303
MLE................................................................................................303
Parameters for Machine Availability Modeling................................303
Standard Weibull Curve.......................................................................... 304
Three-Parameter Weibull......................................................................... 306
Software Reliability Studies..................................................................... 308
Putnam’s Rayleigh Curve for Software Reliability.................................... 311
Cost Model............................................................................................... 311

© 2015 by Taylor & Francis Group, LLC

 Contents ◾ xv

Defect Detection by Reviews....................................................................312

New Trend................................................................................................313
Weibull Model for Defect Prediction—Success Factors............................ 314
Review Questions..................................................................................... 316
Exercises................................................................................................... 316
References................................................................................................. 316
20 Gumbel Distribution for Extreme Values............................................ 319
A Science of Outliers................................................................................. 319
Gumbel Minimum PDF...........................................................................321
Gumbel Parameter Extraction—A Simple Approach................................322
Gumbel Minimum: Analyzing Low CSAT Scores....................................323
Gumbel Maximum: Complexity Analysis................................................324
Minima Maxima Comparisons.................................................................325
Analyzing Extreme Problems....................................................................328
Review Questions.....................................................................................329
Exercises...................................................................................................330
References.................................................................................................330
21 Gompertz Software Reliability Growth Model...................................331
S Curves...................................................................................................331
Modeling Reliability Growth with Gompertzian S Curves.......................332
Building a Reliability Growth Curve........................................................334
Gompertz Software Reliability Growth Model Curves.............................334
Dimitri Shift....................................................................................336
Predicting with the Gompertz Model.......................................................337
More Attempts on Gompertzian Software Reliability Growth Model
(SRGM)....................................................................................................339
Stringfellow and Andrews................................................................339
Zeide.............................................................................................. 340
Swamydoss and Kadhar Nawaz...................................................... 340
Arif et al......................................................................................... 340
Anjum et al. ................................................................................... 340
Bäumer and Seidler......................................................................... 340
Ohishi et al. ................................................................................... 340
How to Implement Gompertz Model in Software Testing........................341
Gompertz Curve versus GO NHPP Model............................................. 344
Review Questions.....................................................................................345
Exercises...................................................................................................345
References.................................................................................................345
Suggested Readings................................................................................. 346
Index............................................................................................................347

© 2015 by Taylor & Francis Group, LLC

© 2015 by Taylor & Francis Group, LLC
Preface

This book is a tribute to great Statisticians, scholars, and teachers whose ideas are
quoted throughout this book in various contexts. These pearls of wisdom have
helped us to connect our book with the evolution of science, knowledge and engi-
neering. Eventhough there are many books on statistics, there are few dedicated
to the application of statistical methods to software engineering. Pure textbooks
provide scholarly treatment, whereas practitioners need basic understanding and
application knowledge. Very few statistical books provide application knowledge to
software engineers. We have been working toward bridging this gap for about two
decades and have come out with the current book.
Statistical methods are often discussed in the context of six sigma, Capability
Maturity Model Integrated (CMMI), establishing capability baselines, and con-
structing process performance models. Driven by CMMI auditors, such practices
have become rituals that rely heavily on automated statistical packages, which are
rarely well understood. We have been promoting excel-based solution to statistics
and have presented practical solutions, such as those achieved in this book.

Statistics is the grammar of science.

Karl Pearson

We also realize that sophisticated statistics is not the ideal approach to solve
problems. Simpler techniques provide easy solutions that connect with the intu-
ition of problem solvers. Although sophisticated techniques sound impressive but
merely academic, simpler techniques are flexible and can easily penetrate to the root
of the problem. In this book, we have consciously selected simpler tools. We have
also simplified several standard techniques.
The techniques presented in this book appear to us as a minimum set of intel-
lectual tools for software engineers and managers. True software engineering

xvii

© 2015 by Taylor & Francis Group, LLC

xviii ◾ Preface

can happen only when data are collected and these statistical methods are used.
Moreover, the statistical management of processes is possible only when managers
master these techniques.
Learning these techniques in the context of software engineering will certainly
help budding engineers and fresh recruits. The examples provided in this book will
provide a deep insight into software engineering and management.
This book can be used extensively as a guidebook for training software engi-
neers and managers at different levels. It will be a very valuable asset in the hands
of quality professionals who collect data and create models.
This book also exposes practical software engineering problems and solutions to
aspiring engineering graduates and make them industry ready.
Generally, this book is a guide for professionals to think objectively with data.
It will help them to mine data and extract meanings. Some of the techniques pro-
vided in the book are excellent prediction tools, which would give foresight to those
who apply them.

MATLAB® is a registered trademark of The MathWorks, Inc. For product informa-

tion, please contact:

The MathWorks, Inc.

3 Apple Hill Drive
Natick, MA 01760-2098 USA
Tel: 508 647 7000
Fax: 508-647-7001
E-mail: [email protected]
Web: www.mathworks.com

© 2015 by Taylor & Francis Group, LLC

Acknowledgment

This book would not have become a reality without fruitful feedback from several
software professionals, quality managers, and project managers who have taken
our training and consultancy services. We also acknowledge Software Process
Improvement Network (SPIN) for presenting some of these concepts through vari-
ous SPIN chapters in India in an attempt to propagate these methods. All the SPIN
coordinators we interacted with have provided excellent application suggestions.
We thank those organizations who have shared their metric problems with us
for analysis and resolution. They eventually provided us research opportunities that
helped us gain deeper knowledge. We also thank many research scholars who have
interacted with us and taken our research support in the context of data mining
and artificial neural network.
We thank the professors and correspondents of many colleges in India for help-
ing us interact with students. We also thank Project Management Institute (PMI)
chapters and project management institutes who gave us opportunities to present
quantitative techniques to managers.
Rathna and Samuel helped by offering a wonderful review and criticism of
Chapter 8. Swaminathan contributed to Chapter 21 by reviewing the chapter and
making valuable suggestions. Shanti Harry helped us with references and suggested
readings. We thank all these well wishers.
Finally, we thank Mr. John Wyzalek who provided moral support and editorial
help. He made serious decisions about the scope of this book and helped us make a
tough decision to leave some chapters for the future and focus on the few we have
selected for this publication.

xix

© 2015 by Taylor & Francis Group, LLC

© 2015 by Taylor & Francis Group, LLC
Discovering Diverse Content Through
Random Scribd Documents
walls usually colored pictures—chromos—the only decoration save the
ever present icon in the corner near the ceiling.
The morality of the Russian workman is mainly negative. Religion is
everywhere, or, at least, ecclesiasticism. But what religion is, or means in
Russia, is hard to determine. Church-going is general. The most striking
building in each village and town is the church. The clatter and din of
church-bells breaks out at any hour. Within are invariably garish
decorations of gilt and gold. The workmen, like the peasants, always
remove their hats and cross themselves many times when passing a church,
and when they enter they have every appearance of piety and devotion.
Russian churches do not have pews or seats: the congregation stands, or
individuals (at their own will and pleasure, so far as I could discover) kneel
and pray, and bow forward until their foreheads rest upon the paved floor. I
have seen a cab-driver asleep upon the box of his cab when hit upon the
back by a companion, awake startled, and instantly, as by instinct, whip off
his hat and cross himself. On every hand are evidences of ecclesiastical
power and influence. And yet—what does it stand for? One is not shocked
or surprised to find a drunken priest on the street. The most devout drink to
excess at stated times. They pillage, plunder and steal goods and chattels
and other men’s wives. So far as one can judge religion has no grip
whatever upon the hearts of the people, no influence on their conduct of
life. At the same time the forms of the church are scrupulously maintained.
The fasts are adhered to to the physical detriment of the people, and no
house is without its icon. But there is no commandment that is not lightly
broken.
It would be wrong, however, to convey the impression that the Russian
workman is a drunkard. He is not. He drinks at certain stated times only,
usually when he draws his pay. Drink does not seriously interfere with
business in Russian industrial centers. There are drunkards in every
community in Russia, as in most countries, but on the whole the per capita
consumption of alcohol among the workmen is not great and with the
exception of the one day in the month which follows the pay-day the
workmen are not given to drunkenness; Sundays and holidays might be
added.
Morality is a totally different question. A gentleman who for thirty years
has been the paymaster of one of the largest “works” in Russia, went so far
as to say to me: “Morality is unknown among Russian workmen.” In this
respect industrial Russia to-day is not unlike industrial England
immediately after the industrial revolution. The breaking-up of the homes
and emigration have always resulted in a lowering of ethical and moral
standards.
Compared with the English and American workman the Russian is
inferior. Physically he should be capable of greater endurance and effort, for
his frame is large and heavy, but weakened by his insufficient diet, and too
rigid adherence to the fasts prescribed by the church, he has so undermined
his strength, and so reduced his capacity, that in the run of months and years
he is worth only one third of an English workman, and not more than one
fourth of an American. “A Russian looks a long time at his work before he
begins,” said a mine foreman to me. Figures furnished me by
superintendents and employers demonstrated that the average English
workman can do the work of three Russians. The Russian is listless. He
does not understand the reason for hurry. To-morrow is as good as to-day.
He has not been trained by discipline, nor encouraged by the reward which
should accrue to the thrifty and the pushing. Looked at critically he is good
raw material—but very raw and very crude. Like the country at large, the
Russian workman promises well under proper conditions, and if sufficient
time and capital are invested in him, he will develop an adequate earning
capacity. But his religion must first be tempered with intelligence. He must
learn to make the best use and the most use of his naturally strong physique,
and his economic condition must so alter that it will appear to him worth his
while to devote himself with more heart to his work. He must adopt a much
higher standard of living, and demand recompense for his labor that will
enable him to maintain that advanced standard. Under the present system
industry is not rewarded by promotion. A miner, for example, can never
become a stager, nor a stager an engineer. Having once taken the
examination for the lower post all further advancement is precluded. Also,
the line between industrialism and peasantry must be more sharply drawn.
The man who is farmer in summer and plate-roller in winter may be none
the less a good farmer, but he is very much less valuable as a plate-roller.
The two lines of life are parallel, but they don’t interlace.
One day I climbed into a huge metal basket and was lowered twenty-five
hundred feet toward the earth’s heart. The walls of the shaft were of
splendid firm masonry, great blocks of stone like granite. The engines
which controlled the descent were equipped with the most modern patents
for haulage, automatic brakes and indicators. At another mine I gingerly
placed one leg in a small wooden affair like a nail keg, grasped a hemp rope
from which the keg was suspended with one hand, and was swung out over
a dark well, called a shaft, and with the other hand and the other leg (the
one outside the keg) maintained an unsteady balance, and saved myself
from too violent contact with the sides, as two horses jogged round a ring,
unwinding a drum allowing the keg and its load to go jerkily bottomward.
Here the shaft sides were of timber—crude, wooden slats interlaced after
the fashion of a crib.
The former was the result of the English influence; the latter was pure
Russian.
Between the Russian miner and the French, Belgian, or British miner is
this difference: the Russian has not the blood of coal-miners in his veins,
nor the traditions of underground workers handed down to him from
preceding generations. Whereas the others are generally miners by tradition
and breeding, the Russian is really a peasant driven from his land to seek a
living where he can find it. Mining is a casual choice with him, he would as
lief be in the rolling-mill, or tending one of the coke-ovens.
This system of labor which permits workmen to spend part of the year
on their farms and part in the mines and mills, is a symptom of Russia’s
industrial revolution. The workers who do this are called “the go-aways,”
and make up a large percentage of the workmen in the industrial districts of
south Russia, with the result that they are poor agriculturists and second-
rate workers. Slowly the system will pass, and industrial towns composed
of a permanent population be established. The Russian peasant has been on
the land so long that he has little ambition to leave it. When the land is
worked out, exhausted, and the annual harvest is no longer sufficient to
keep the souls and bodies of his family together, he goes off to the towns.
The vast area of European Russia given solely to agriculture, makes it often
necessary for the peasant to travel far to find winter employment. Thus
north Russians have a journey of fifteen hundred, or two thousand miles to
the south Russian mines and factories. This is a goodly distance for a
peasant. When harvest-time comes year after year, the worker more and
more shrinks from going back to his patch of land to reap the meager
harvest, and each year some give up the thought and remain at their work.
Many more, however, have a bred-in-the-bone love for the soil, and with a
political revolution in the atmosphere, with a general cry from one end of
the empire to the other of “Land—Land,” they come up out of the black
depths of the coal-pits and back to their dessiatines in the hope that one day
other dessiatines will be given them, and they may leave their proletarian
life forever. Naturally, this condition does not produce miners or other
workers of the best type, and hence the coal-miners of the Donitz basin do
not compare favorably with the coal-miners of England or America.
One of the great drawbacks to the progress of the

A Russian coal-miner

coal industry among Russians, is the Russian engineer. Russian law

provides that the chief engineer at each colliery shall be a Russian, or at
least, shall possess a Russian certificate, which amounts to the same thing.
There seems to be universal agreement that the Russian mining engineer is
rarely a practical man. Trained in a mediocre technological school he comes
to a colliery resplendent in a long coat with silver buttons and gold insignia.
This coat rarely comes off. A Russian engineer never goes down into a pit if
he can avoid doing so. I can testify that I usually saw them strutting about
above ground, and always wearing their good clothes—looking much more
like officers on parade than practical engineers. The feeling against these
dressed-up theoreticians is very strong among pit-foremen, managers, and
all practical miners.
If a coal-miner becomes expert in any particular line of work he may
become a section-boss, but as for working up from the ranks, it is unheard
of, and impossible, according to present laws. If a man desires to become a
manager he must make up his mind to this before going into the mines at
all, then pass a manager’s examination, after which he may never occupy
any other post.
The Russian coal-miner, like most Russian workmen, persists in clinging
to the inherited idea that the land is where man belongs, that the land is for
the people, and his work in the mines is merely to supply him with food and
raiment till the people shall come into possession of the land, when he will
lay down his tools and go back to the soil. This is the prime reason for his
backwardness.
The Russian coal-miner is naturally careless and lackadaisical. Time is
meaningless to him. He lacks caution in his work, and handles explosives as
if they were minerals as harmless as coal. The government, understanding
this characteristic, largely removes responsibility from the workman and
places it upon the employer by granting high compensation in cases of
accident. The employer, therefore, takes extraordinary precautions through
his managers. This system is by no means a bad one, for in presupposing
the ignorance and carelessness of undisciplined workmen, the chance for
accident is reduced to a minimum.
The government also protects the children; no boy may be employed at
manual labor, or for a full day, until he has attained his fifteenth year. At the
age of thirteen a boy may go into an office for half-days. To encourage
schooling a boy who passes the third grade in the common schools is
excused from sixteen months’ soldiering. These are comparatively recent
regulations, copied, I believe, from Germany. There is no gainsaying their
value and reasonableness. That such wise laws as these should be found in
connection with an industry where there are such absurd restrictions as, for
instance, the preventing of practical miners from becoming superiors, is
typically Russian.
Not political revolution alone threatens Russia to-day. Industrially, there
is every symptom of the disorganization which precedes an industrial
revolution. I found Russian workmen agitating armed revolt because they
wanted more land! That is the slogan of the peasants. The working-men
stand for supporting the peasants in this, in order, as some of them
expressed it, that they may quit the industries, and return to the land. So
long as workmen look upon their work as a temporary expediency, Russia
will not develop a strong working-class. But this is only incident to the
transition. Revolution, armed or unarmed, must evolve change, and with the
wider liberties and scope for individual development which Russia soon
will have, the workmen will have opportunities to develop their own
industries. For the present the prime thing is change, immediate and radical
change. It matters not what the shibboleth so long as it leads to this.
Thus far the workmen have not been allowed to consider themselves as a
class—any form of organization is prohibited by the government. Any
effort toward “industrial betterment,” improved conditions, or any of the
reforms which are common movements in England and America, are
unheard of and unknown in Russia. The wonder is that the Russian
workman is as good as he is under existing conditions. Given freedom of
belief, freedom from ecclesiastic superstition, freedom from civil slavery—
freedom of organization, and the Russian workman will develop a vista
leading to his own better day.
The tenth day of my stay in Yusofka I was called back to Moscow by
telegram. The call was urgent so I determined to catch a train from a station
some fourteen miles away, which left just at dawn. Hughes himself put me
into the same barouche that had brought Mr. Medhurst and me to the home I
now left with genuine regret, and drawn by the same black Orloffs.
“I’m sending two trusted men with you,” Hughes said, as I gripped his
hand in farewell; “both are well armed.” And we rolled out of the gate and
into the cool night where furnace fires belched flaring flames above near
and far horizons, and where the rattle of mineshaft wheels and cars intruded
upon the stillness which properly is the birthright of night, but here is
unknown.
 CHAPTER XXI

TOLSTOI—ODESSA—CONSTANTINOPLE

A visit to Russia’s grand old man—An interesting yamschik—Tolstoi’s

views on the present struggle—His world-wide interests—The varied
and interesting Tolstoi household—On to the Crimea—Odessa—The
Black Hundred organization—Promoting massacres—Quitting Odessa
during a dock strike—A Black Hundred crew—Difficulties at sea—
Back to Odessa—A fresh start—A motley cargo of passengers—
Bokhara pilgrims bound for Mecca, Central Asia Jews journeying to
Jerusalem, German Lutherans—Crossing the Black Sea—Arrival in
Constantinople.

A sojourn in Russia seemed incomplete without a pilgrimage to Tolstoi.

Russia’s grand old man attracts travelers from all corners of the earth, and
though it seemed an unpardonable intrusion for an unheard-of citizen of a
distant country to call upon the seer in his own home, to draw upon his
strength and time, I was deeply grateful to receive an invitation to visit a
dear friend and disciple of his who lives on the estate of the count’s eldest
daughter; for I knew that this would mean a happy meeting with the one
man in all Russia I desired most to see.
The year had turned November when this invitation came, and I was
already looking forward to quitting the land of struggle and chaos. Tula, the
town of Tolstoi’s home is almost the exact center of European Russia, and is
reached from Moscow. “Yasnaya Poliana,” Tolstoi’s house, is located
something over two hours’ drive from Tula station. Yasnaya Poliana, that is
to say, “Pleasant Clearing in the Woods,” and never did the home of the
prophet seem more fittingly named than now, when confusion and chaos
roll unchanneled from the Baltic eastward, from European frontiers
northward, covering an empire. Tolstoi looks across the seas of tumult, his
hoary head towering above the wreckage, his superbly discerning vision
penetrating a beyond still hid from the masses of his countrymen. And it is
also true that the elements of to-day are as clear before him as before other
men. He sees them all: an incompetent government, a struggling but thus
far incapable revolution, twenty-seven millions of starving peasants, a
disloyal navy, an untrustworthy army, a paper constitution and a reactionary
régime. All these things he sees, views them calmly, and picks out a clear
line of progress that leads to a goal where all of the black road will be
justified. Of him, surely, is it true, “he has a faith that meets a thousand
cheats, yet drops no jot of faith.” Tolstoi alone among Russians to-day is
able to see his country’s plight in perspective.
Snow softly blanketed the earth and coated the bare trees of Great Russia
when I said farewell to St. Petersburg and Moscow and made toward the
center of the country to the station called Tula. A simple muzhik with a
hand-made sledge, scarcely higher off the ground than a sled, offered to
drive me out to the home where I was to be a guest, adjoining the count’s
place. The horse did not look any too robust for the trip but the yamschik
[peasant driver] assured me that the horse was the best to be had, and strong
enough to accomplish the distance. As soon as we had left the streets of the
town and struck the open country the man opened a friendly conversation.
He began by telling me he had only recently come back from Manchuria,
where he had served all through the war. It was evident that he had not
enjoyed the service particularly and when I sympathized with him he told
me how, after the first battle, he and seven of his companions held a secret
council. They were all agreed that war was a bad job. In the first place not
one of them knew just why they were fighting, and the idea of shooting at
people whom they did not know, and in return being shot at, appeared to
them as wrong. At the same time the government and their officers made
them do these things. One soldier, from Tula, suggested writing to Tolstoi.
A letter was indited and sent to Yasnaya Poliana. In the course of time these
soldiers received their answer, in which Tolstoi told them that he believed
all war was wrong, that the army had no business in Manchuria, and that if
the consciences of the soldiers troubled them they should not shoot. “After
that,” continued my driver, “we always knew what to do. We knew in our
hearts that it was wrong to fight under such circumstances. We marched into
battle because we had to, but after a few minutes our officers would all
disappear, then we all ran away. We ran every time afterward.”
I told this story to a Red Cross nurse later for the humor of it. She
laughingly said she was sure it was literally true, because one night after the
battle of Mukden, a young captain was brought into her ward with an
injured head. His wounds were not serious and shortly after they had been
bandaged the officer began to laugh loudly. She went over to him and asked
what amused him so greatly.
 “The way I was wounded,” he replied. “Our regiment had not been long
exposed to the fire when I decided it was too hot for comfort. I looked all
about for some place of shelter. At last I espied a small gully or ravine, so
suddenly running toward it I leaped in—only to find my general and my
colonel there before me! Well—there wasn’t room for all three of us, so we
began to nudge and push each other, for none wanted to get into the open
again. Finally the general said to me: ‘Captain, you are not showing
becoming deference to your superior officers, sir.’ At that I had to crawl out.
As I did so a shell exploded near by and a piece of it hit me in the forehead
causing my wound!”

The second night after my arrival at the house where I was a guest I was
taken over to Yasnaya Poliana. Tolstoi had been informed of my presence in
the neighborhood, and had graciously suggested to my friend that she bring
me to see him. The fast-falling, late autumn night was settling over the
snow-fields and silver woods as we climbed the knoll upon which Yasnaya
Poliana house stands. In summer the place must have a fascinating charm,
for all the elements of a beautiful country park are there—flower-beds and
wildwood, orchards, groves and arbored walks, a bit of water, fields rolling
toward distant horizons, broad sky and vistas that hold one. Surmounting
the knoll, a pleasant house, large enough without being grand, comfortable
without pretension. At the door a black poodle barked a welcome. A man-
servant helped us to unload the heavy garments we wore against the cold of
a Russian November night. With not unexpected directness we were taken
straight to the count’s study. There he sat—near a table-desk which was
littered with piles of letters and papers. “Good evening,” he called cheerily
and quite as though I were an old friend. His hands, which were extended in
welcome, were warm as if the fires of his strong life and body still burned
fiercely, as when he commanded men on Sebastopol bastions, ranged over
the unconquered Caucasus, and hunted with the most daring of his
comrades through great Russian forests. He had been horseback-riding in
the afternoon, he told us. Surely few men carry the weight of seventy-eight
years with more vigor.
The first words of greeting over, he began to ask about his friends in
America, men whom he knows personally or by reputation. A conversation
with a neighbor from one’s own home town on a chance meeting in a
foreign land would scarcely have been different. There was a delightful
eagerness for word-of-mouth news. Names of men in New York slipped as
easily from his tongue as from one of their own circle.
Shelves of books in many languages walled the room from floor to eye
level, while above hung portraits of many thinkers who have, or should
have, influenced the world. Prominent among them Henry George and
William Lloyd Garrison.
“Do you read Garrison?” Tolstoi asked, as my wandering eyes rested on
the portrait of our own champion of liberty. “Do you read Channing,
Thoreau, Emerson? I always ask Americans about those four great men.
They should be read by the young men of to-day.”
A tall candle burning on the table by his right side threw its restless
gleams across the old man’s rugged face, and involuntarily my mind ran
incredulously over the intensely human career whose latter days are now
marked by such inspiring serenity.
We could not long keep off the subject of Russia and her troubles,
however, and at last I ventured to ask him what was his interpretation of the
movement of things in Russia at the moment.
Tolstoi pointed to an old volume of Rousseau’s “Émile” lying on a table
at the other side of the room, and asked me to bring it to him. Turning over
the pages of Book IV till he found the paragraph he sought, he paused, then
read very slowly and with emphasis, these sentences: “On dit qu’il falloit
une révélation pour apprendre aux hommes la manière dont Dieu vouloit
être servi; on assigne en préserve la diversité des cultes bizarres qu’ils ont
institué, et l’on ne voit pas que cette diversité même vient de la fantaisie des
révélations. Dès que les peuples se sont avisés de faire parler Dieu, chacun
l’a fait parler à sa mode et lui a fait dire ce qu’il a voulu; si l’on n’eût
écouté que ce que Dieu dit au cœur de l’homme, il n’y auroit jamais eu
qu’une religion sur la terre.” The last sentence he read twice, and then
handed the book across the table that I might absorb the passage. “That is
what we have all got to learn,” he said, “to listen to the words God speaks
to us in our hearts. We need no other religion or philosophy than this. We
need no institution like a church. This message is for the people of America
as well as for Russia, and the whole significance of the present terrible
situation in Russia is that the Russian people are being brought to the point
where every other channel will be closed and only by turning to God will
they be able to save themselves.” In other words, Tolstoi sees, as every one
in Russia must see, that the drift of things is toward an abyss, and Tolstoi
reads into this tendency a deeply religious meaning; he accepts it as part of
a Divine plan, and he firmly believes that the Russian people will come to
look upon their situation as a call from God to discard their ancient
superstitions and to inaugurate a new era in which each individual will
endeavor to readjust his life into conformity with the infinite.
Tolstoi appreciates, as does every one in Russia, that the Russian liberal
movement aims to effect a social revolution, and that a successful political
revolt will only mark the beginning of the struggle. Tolstoi does not view
this as do most Russian thinkers, however. He does not accept the
accomplishment of a socialistic state as a goal at all, for he distrusts the
economics of socialism, and as a philosophy he rejects socialism
vehemently. “It is not a second-rate, but a hundredth-rate philosophy,” he
says. “The present growth of socialism,” he went on in explanation, “is to
be accounted for in precisely the same way as the present popularity of
inferior literature, poetry, drama, and art. It is all part of a passing phase.”
“Monsieur Leroy Beaulieu, the French writer,” said Tolstoy, “was here
not long ago, and he said to me: ‘The Russian revolution? It is for fifty
years.’ That may be. But in the end—whether ten years or fifty years—a
new era of righteousness will be established in Russia.”
Late in the evening we adjourned to the dining-room, where were the
countess and a party of about a dozen. A more varied group one seldom
meets under one roof. There was the count, strong in his faith, confident in
the truth of his own philosophy of “Christian anarchism.” There was a son,
who, during the Japanese War, was a patriot, a loyal subject of the Czar, and
as such volunteered for service in arms and served in Manchuria. There was
the eldest brother of this soldier son, a Constitutional Democrat, or middle-
of-the-road-man, and next him a sister who is married to a man who is an
“Octoberist,” a conservative deputy to the first Duma, and she shares her
husband’s political opinions. Also there was a disciple of Count Tolstoi,
who believes not in war or parliaments at all; and a Social Revolutionist,
who believes ardently in revolution and even in terrorism. Each was true to
his own convictions and perfectly outspoken. When the count had drunk his
glass of tea, little heeding the babel of conversation around the board, he
pushed back his chair and for several moments slowly paced the room. The
huge dining-room, warm with hospitality, afforded a striking picture that
night. Against the high, dark walls stood out several life-size oil portraits. In
one corner a grand piano, near it a table on which were strewn a pack of
cards, and opposite a cozy-corner. In the center of the room, the long
dining-table around which were gathered the company; at one end a
steaming samovar. Slowly, back and forth, paced the count, now in the
shadow, now in the light, his shaggy gray beard against his dark-blue
peasant blouse. So stalwart, so vigorous, so keen to all things he seemed.
Above all, so serene in spirit; for he glories in the present dark hour of his
country, believing it harbingers the approach of dawn—the awakening of
the Russian people to a consciousness of a grander destiny than they have
dreamed of before, when as true sons of God they shall realize that heaven
of which the dogmatic preachers talk, only not in a distant future, but here
on earth.
However often it may be true that “a prophet is without honor in his own
country,” Tolstoi is honored and revered by the peasants in the villages of
Tula, and his own influence throughout Russia is very great. Curiously
enough, though, it is his unconscious influence which is greatest. Tolstoi,
above all living men, is the apostle of “non-resistance” and “passive
resistance.” But in Russia all resistance of necessity becomes active
resistance. Tolstoi pamphlets on the horrors and evils of war perhaps more
than any other influence have brought army service into disrepute with the
people. The Russian people hold their enforced military service as one of
their prime grievances, and to avoid such service every ruse and device is
resorted to from bribery and perjury to open “passive resistance,” that is,
stubborn refusal to carry arms. But the government views this attitude as
opposed to its interests and consequently revolutionary. Refusal to bear
arms in Russia is punished by imprisonment. Tolstoi told me of a peasant
thus imprisoned who replied to the court that sentenced him: “Very well,
imprison me. I shall pray for you and my unhappy country, whose rulers
make men do evil.” The beginnings of resistance have been inspired by
Tolstoi’s “peaceful” and “Christian” writings in thousands of cases, and
eventually fruited in revolutionaryism and insurrection. This unconscious
influence, which Tolstoi has exerted during the last decade, and more
especially during the last two years, is enormous. Peasants in every section
of Russia knew more or less about Tolstoi, and while not professing to be
“Tolstoians,” nevertheless admit that the beginning of their criticism of the
government, and the first inspiration to trust to their own thinking, came
from one or another of Tolstoi’s writings. Doubtless there are thousands of
people all over the world who owe, even if they do not recognize, a like
debt to this great, restive spirit, the dynamic of whose life has been both
innate and conscious moral earnestness. A moral leader of the force and
caliber of Tolstoi can not fail to impress a generation, and this is Tolstoi’s
contribution to life and the world: he has quickened men to thought and
action, and he has pointed a goal and standard above all others in the God
which dwells within each and every human being.
Upon leaving Tula I went south to the Crimea. On the train I read
Tolstoi’s “Sebastopol Sketches,” which contain about the most graphic
descriptions of war ever written. Curiously enough the season of the year
when I first saw Sebastopol was the same as Tolstoi describes upon his
arrival in the besieged city in 1854. During all my stay there I could not get
away from the remarkable coincidental similarity in conditions—December,
1854, and December, 1906. To be sure, Sebastopol was not besieged by
alien foes from without, but it was besieged by revolutionists from within.
This, like most ports and all naval stations, is a revolutionary stronghold.
Only the day before my arrival an admiral or port officer had been
assassinated. Sentinels patrolled the streets at intervals of one hundred feet.
The Hotel Kist was guarded. Small bodies of troops were moving in
different parts of the city, and when the early morning mist lifted, a half-
dozen warships were revealed lying at anchor. For several hours during the
forenoon large forces of cavalry and light artillery were kept manœuvering
in the plain across the narrow strip of water from the pristan. It might just
as well have been a besieged city. Save for the lack of wounded and dead
men, the outward aspects of the town were every whit as warlike, and
everywhere were the signs of martial law.
These indications of unrest and readiness for trouble did not deter me
from visiting Balaklava and lovely Yalta, or interesting Bakhtchi-Sarai, the
old Crimean Tartar capital, and Tchoufout-Kali, the two thousand-year old
Karaite[22] stronghold. After these visits I turned toward Odessa, which I
reached via Eupatoria.
Odessa being one third a Jewish city has long been a city of trouble—not
so much because of the Jews as on account of the powerful Black Hundred
organization made up of water-front laborers and the lowest elements of a
special city, who, under governmental tutelage, from time to time break
loose upon the Jews. Incipient and real massacres are apt to break out there
any time. The governor-general, Kaulbars, is a notorious reactionary, and
encourages every form of repression.
I had studied the Jewish question in many other places, and in Odessa as
in Warsaw, Vilna, and other Jewish centers, I became convinced that the
Russian government, by its extraordinarily blind and stupid policy, has
itself created the Jewish problem. If the 5,000,000 Jews who are now in
Russia were scattered among the 140,000,000 people of the Russian empire,
they would scarcely be noticed. But Russia chose the arbitrary part and
closed to the Jews all but a tiny strip of the empire. In only nine
governments and in Poland many Jews live, and these are the districts
which constitute “the pale”—South Russia, Poland, and the Baltic
provinces. Having corralled all the Jews over whom it has jurisdiction, the
Russian government then proceeded to enact a long series of special,
discriminative laws, and to inaugurate special Jewish taxes.
Stripped of every right and privilege of citizenship and manhood save
one—the right to pay taxes—the Jews of Russia have had no other recourse
than to develop their mental powers. This they have done most creditably
under circumstances quite as adverse as learning arithmetic from a
borrowed text-book, by the light of a rail fire during the hours between the
end of the workday and sleep time. And now, because he has given himself
devotedly up to the one thing left him and has been successful, he is feared.
Whatever may have been the original motives of the czars in the restrictions
they laid upon the Jews, the present attitude of Jew-baiting Russians is
based upon jealous fear.
One thing all observers mark—outspoken bitterness against the Jews on
the part of peasants flourishes in the parts where the Jews are not. Within
the pale most often does one find champions of the Jew. Nearly every
telegraph correspondent for the foreign press who hastened to Bielostok at
the time of the massacre commented on the testimony of the townspeople
that (to quote one of them) “the Jews and Christians had always lived
together like brothers.” The Jew is much more apt to be suspicious of the
Christian than is the non-Jew to nourish ill-will against the Jews whom he
comes into frequent contact with. If it is not literally true that to know is to
love, it at least may be said that to know is to tolerate, with regard to the
Jews in Russia. The persecution of the Jews in Russia originates with
official Russia, and the bitterness which their weakness and fears inspire is
passed on to the people through the government’s agents—often the priests
—through the government press, and through the scapegoat, underling
officials who are immediately above the actual perpetrators of the dire
deeds, and below the higher officials who are morally responsible.
The massacre of Bielostok was executed as a diabolical and fantastic
orgy by the police and the soldiers. They deliberately shot little children.
They ravished, then murdered, young girls, they tortured men by the wildest
and most excruciating devices. And the police and soldiers, incidentally,
looted Jewish shops and carried away pockets full of watches from
jewelers, and cash when they could get it.
The governor of the district was removed, but not in disgrace. The actual
perpetrators of these deeds still administer the “law” in Bielostok. The
children and the families of the murdered see them every time they go out. I
saw them when I was there. They walked about with heads in the air as if
they had done a noble thing and were worthy, like war-heroes. And the
story of Bielostok is practically the very same as the story of Gomel, of
Kishineff and Odessa, save that in Odessa there is a stronger Black Hundred
element of “hooligans” and rowdies, who, for a pittance, are glad to lend
themselves to the unscrupulous and murderous police.
Such conditions drive the older and weaker Jews to America, and the
more spirited of the younger generation to revolution. It is the height of
absurdity for the Russian government to excuse its Jewish oppression on the
ground that the Jews are revolutionary. By nature and by tradition they are
the opposite of aggressive and militant. They are revolutionary because the
Russian government is oppressive, and because they know no other course.
The Russian Jew is docile, domestically inclined, and peace-loving
naturally, but when exasperated beyond endurance he becomes a daring
antagonist. Surely it is no reflection against the Jewish race that the stronger
men and women resent the endless insults that Russia heaps upon them.
Even the passport of a Jew is differentiated. Fifteen thousand Jews gave up
their lives in Manchuria during the course of the late inglorious war, in
which they had no interest and for which they had no sympathy. Fifteen
thousand more were wounded in the same ignominious cause. And yet
Manchuria remains closed to the Jews as a place of settlement. Thirty
thousand Jewish victims in one war! Yet no Jew may
 Cossacks on patrol duty

Victims of a Cossack pogrom

be an officer in the army or navy. It is characteristic that Jewish doctors
should be called upon to combat epidemics of plague—and then are
expelled from the district after the conquering of the disease. No Jew may
take an active interest in any mining enterprise in Russia, nor may he
engage in the oil trade—which in the Caucasus offers large possibilities. No
Jew may buy or rent land. Only a very small proportion—three to five per
cent.—of the children in the middle schools and universities may be Jews.
The complete list of “exceptional” laws designed to curb the Jews extends
to extraordinary length, and when they have been all gone through with and
applied the Jew still has the yet more terrible situation to face in the spirit of
his civil governors, who seek in every petty way to annoy him, to terrorize
him, and every now and again to impress all of the Jews with the stubborn
fact that they are Jews, and as such, liable to slaughter without further
notice. These are some of the reasons why the younger and braver Jews
have a personal interest in the Russian revolution, and why the older ones
hail America as a promised land.
The revolutionary movement is becoming less and less Jewish, not
because the Jews are becoming subdued as a result of their continual
persecution, but because the Russian population is increasing so much
faster than the Jewish. It is no class or party struggle, the revolution. It is a
dynastic revolt. The great mass of the Russian people are done with the
house of Romanoff, and they want a new régime. Each different section of
people has its own reasons, but none are more potent than the reason of the
Jews.
An appeal in the “Novoe Vremya,” the semi-official newspaper of St.
Petersburg, suggested that all trade should be interdicted to Jews; that all
Jewish schools should be closed, and that Jews should be excluded from the
secondary and higher schools; that all Jews who returned to Russia should
be interned in the northern part of Siberia; that Jews should be debarred
from work on all newspapers; and that all Jewish property should be sold
within five years. This appeal was printed in the press of the City Prefect on
March 4, 1906.[23]
On October 25, 1905, M. Lavroff, who was at that time an official of the
ministry of the interior, sent round a circular demanding a general union of
“all who love their country” against the Jews. An appeal freely circulated
amongst the local troops before the Bielostok “pogrom” runs as follows:
 A foreign enemy ... has roused up the Jap against Russia.... On the
quiet, across the seas and oceans, the foreign czars [meaning, of course,
more particularly, King Edward and the President] armed the enormous
Japanese people against us.... Then arose our strength of Russia.... The
foreign czars got scared; the hair bristled up on their heads; their skins
crinkled with chill. And they thought of a mean idea—to undermine the
heart of the Russian soldier, to shake his ancient Christian faith and his
love for our father Czar.... They brought into the soldiers’ ranks, almost
wholly through Jews and hirelings, whole mountains of print, ... and also
heaps of gold, that they might buy base souls.... But our army turned
away from these new Judases.... The foreign czars blushed.... There
began in Russia an internal confusion. Again the fierce foreign foe sets
his snares through his friends, always the Jews and the hirelings.... that
he may seize altogether the land of our fathers. But ... he never put his
own head in the way of our cannon, but bought, through the Jews, the
souls of Russians—Christians.... Brothers, tread in the steps of Christ.
Cry out with one voice: “Away with the Jewish kingdom! Down with the
red flag! Down with the red Jewish freedom!... At the foe, Russian
soldiers! Forward! forward! forward! They go! they go! they go!”

This appeal was printed by the military staff of Odessa.

Odessa is the headquarters, if not the cradle, of the Black Hundred, or
League of Russian Men. I had anticipated a certain reluctance on the part of
the members to impart to me the details of their program, but to my surprise
they told me about their “Jew-sticking” as if it were a most ordinary plank
for the platform of a political party.
The rooms of the organization were fitted up like a Salvation Army tea-
house, gay with bunting and Russian flags, and a great lot of gilded icons in
one corner. Several chromos of the Czar hung on the walls. The rooms were
crowded both times I visited them with men of precisely the same type as
the loungers who occupy Salvation Army reading-rooms—casual laborers,
the shiftless, the workless, life’s derelicts. Among these were a score or
more of young boys, ranging from fourteen to twenty, of the type described
as young roughs. I remarked that most of these wore brand new student
overcoats, so I asked one of these boys pointedly where he got his overcoat.
“From the organization,” he answered.
“Why do you belong to this organization?” I then asked.
“Because of the benefits. We have socials, and private theatricals. And
sometimes we get presents like this overcoat.”
 “What is the object of the organization?” I asked further.
“To kill the Jews,” he made answer.
“But why do you want to kill the Jews?”
“Oh, because the Jews are a bad people! They are against the Czar, and
they spit on the Russian flag.”
“And you kill them for those reasons?”
“Yes, certainly. They must all leave Russia, or they will be killed.”
Just then the “manager” of the rooms came up, and as I had overheard
something said about revolvers, I asked him if the members of the
organization carried arms.
“Oh, yes,” he replied. “We have fifty men who always carry arms. We
have to here in Odessa—there are so many Jews here.” He then showed me
his own revolver, which was a regular army weapon. These arms, he said,
were given them by the police.
A circular was handed to me setting forth certain aims of the
organization. It began with the sentence:
“All nationalities are equal except Jews,” and then went on:
Jews, during several past years, and especially of late, have showed
themselves irreconcilable enemies to Russia and to all Russians, through
their impossible, man-hating spirit, their complete estrangement from
other nationalities, their own Jewish mind, which understands only those
neighbors who are Jewish. Toward Christians they allow all manner of
violence, killing included, as it is known, and as Jews have said more
than once in their manifestos, that the present disturbances and
revolutionary movement in Russia with daily killing of honest servants
of the Czar who have remained true to their oath—all is nearly
exclusively done by Jewish hands, urged on by Jewish money.
The Russian nation, understanding this, and having the full possibility
of using its right of master of the Russian land, could in one day put
down the criminal tendencies of Jews and make them bow under its will
—the will of the crowned master of Russia, but led by the higher
principles of the Christian religion and too well knowing its power to
reply by way of violence, prefers another solution to the Jewish question,
the question which is equally fatal for all civilized nationalities.
Considering that in the last year the Jews, with all their means, are
aspiring toward emigration into Palestine, and formation of their own
state, and believing that their emigration from all countries where they
are now living is the only true means of getting humanity rid of the evil,
 which the Jews are, the League of Russian people will use all its means
to form a Jewish state and assist their emigration to the state, regardless
of whatever material sacrifices it may require from the Russian nation.

The Duma deputies were then appealed to to ask the government to

deliberate with other governments, with a view to promising international
action along these lines.
In the meantime [the circular went on naively], all Jews in Russia are
to be regarded as foreigners, but with none of the rights or privileges that
other foreigners have. This attitude will doubtless increase their desire to
emigrate to their own state.

The man who gave me this circular then went on to say, that he himself
believed that an occasional pogrom was a good thing, because it increased
the restlessness of the Jews, and he hoped that by continuing this policy
Russia would soon be rid of them.
In response to my request for some printed matter, setting forth the aims
and objects of the organization, I was given a brochure which contained the
following definitions:
I. Aim—To develop the Russian national self-consciousness and
strengthen the union of Russian people of all classes, for the mutual
work and prosperity of their dear country.
II. The welfare of the country depends upon the complete
preservation of Russian unlimited orthodoxy, autocracy, and nationality.
III. The restoration of orthodoxy to its place of dominant influence.
IV. Autocracy consists in the union of Czar with Russian people

Further:
The Russian language for all nations living within the Empire.
The League takes upon itself the development of the national
consciousness through the political life in the spirit of autocracy and
spreading among the population Christian principles which strengthen
patriotism, and awaken the sense of duty toward government, society,
and home.
This to be done through the usual methods of propaganda—schools,
lectures, books, brochures, and journals.

Then comes the catch line of the whole pamphlet:

 The League recognises it as a duty to assist brother-members in need
—moral and material.
Dues fifty copecks (25 cents) a year.
Those who have no money may be relieved from annual dues.

Such is the League of Russian Men, to whom the Czar addressed himself
in December, 1905, when accepting for himself and the Czarevitch the
badge of the organization:
“Unite, Russian people! I reckon upon you. With your assistance I
believe I shall be able to conquer the enemies of Russia.”
These very words of the Czar are now used by “the League of Russian
Men” as a motto for their official electioneering platform, and there has
appeared no repudiation on the part of the imperial patron. This is a most
remarkable and quaint document. It consists of four pages set in large type,
but, curiously enough, one and a half pages thereof are devoted to the
Jewish question.
Although all other nationalities are to enjoy civic rights equally with
Russians, Jews are to be deprived of such rights and privileges. They are,
moreover, to be excluded from all professions (they can not be doctors,
lawyers, chemists, contractors, teachers, librarians, etc.) and public or
governmental services.
Under the heading Commerce, Industry, and Finance we find such a
curiosity as this:
The Union will strive to increase the amount of currency by
abolishing gold, and by the reintroduction of national paper currency.

Under the heading “Justice” stands a clause as follows:

All offenses against state and life; robbery and arson; preparing,
keeping, carrying, and being in possession of, explosives by anarchists
and reactionaries; participation in these crimes, harboring offenders;
also picketing in strikes, damaging roads, bridges, or engines, with a
view of arresting work or traffic; also armed resistance to authorities;
revolutionary agitation among troops; instigating women and children to
the above crimes—all these offenses are to be made punishable by death.

At the time I was in Odessa, acquainting myself with this organization, it

enjoyed the distinction of being the only “legal” political party in Russia,
even the Constitutional Democrats and the Party of Peaceful Regeneration
being under the ban.
So long as such liberal inducements are made to membership—presents
of overcoats and firearms, tearooms, free shows—and no dues, the Black
Hundred will continue to exist. Under similar inducements a like
organization could be got together in London, New York, or Chicago,
within twenty-four hours. The organization employed by the Pennsylvania
coal operators during the anthracite strike, 1902, known as The Coal and
Iron Police, was made up of this class—thugs, exconvicts, the flotsam and
jetsam of our big towns, who for daily drink-money were prepared to
“preserve order,” defy the government, or commit murder—all of which
they did.
The morning of the day I was to set sail from Odessa a strike was
declared along the water-front, and stevedores and sailors alike quit their
work. Passengers were informed, however, that the boats of the “Volunteer
Fleet” would sail. I had taken passage on such a boat.
An hour before the scheduled time of departure I drove down to the
wharf. A troop of Cossacks clattered behind my carriage most of the way,
and upon arriving at the quay I found another troop of soldiers lined up to
preserve order and cover our departure.
The actual getting away took nearly two hours, owing to what looked to
me like the sheer clumsiness of the crew. The passengers on that ship were
the most motley lot imaginable. There were seven hundred picturesque
Moslems from Bokhara in central Asia on their way to Mecca; a hundred or
so orthodox Jews bound for Jerusalem; a lot of Persian merchants, and a
score of old German Lutheran colonists. All the way out of Odessa harbor
there was trouble with the ship, and about nine o’clock at night our bow
was turned back toward Odessa. It appeared that the ship had been manned
by a Black Hundred crew. Of the forty-eight men all told in the ship’s
company, forty-two had never been to sea before, and not one man on the
ship knew how to handle the wheel! We were unable to get back into the
harbor, and even if it had been possible the captain feared to do so lest a riot
break out, so he went ashore in a small boat, returning some time after
midnight with three or four officers from other ships who were prepared to
do seamen’s work. We learned later that the five ships of the same line that
followed ours to sea under similar conditions all came to grief. Two were
stranded, two were burned, and one foundered.
The next morning at sunrise the decks presented a weird and memorable
picture. The several hundred Moslems in their long bright-colored
garments, their green, and brown, and white turbans, the women with long
horsehair veils covering their faces all but the eyes (many of them having
brought along three or four of their wives from their harems), all kneeling
on little strips of carpet, their faces toward Mecca, were vigorously reciting
their morning prayers. The Jews had donned their black-and-white prayer
shawls, and bound phylacteries to their foreheads and arms, and they with
their faces toward Jerusalem were droning their prayers of thanksgiving and
praise. The Germans, evidently touched by the religiousness of their fellow-
passengers, after much unpacking drew forth a great family Bible, and
while all the others gathered about in a semi-circle on a hatch, one fat old
paterfamilias read aloud from the New Testament, and when he had done,
they all fell on their knees and united in the Lord’s Prayer.
There was something tremendously impressive in the scene, and just a
touch of humor, too. The German united with his wife in prayer for
blessings to be bestowed upon them both; the Jew thanked God he was not
born a woman; and the Moslem called aloud upon Allah without thought of
his several wives who squatted near him, not during to approach even in
prayer the God of their husband! A breath of fragrant morning air from a
soft and pleasant clime wafted across the decks; the buoyant waters danced
in the glistening sunlight and one squared one’s shoulders in sheer joy of
being alive—and thankfulness that Russia and all her darkness lay behind.
Thirty-six hours after leaving Odessa we passed out of the Black Sea
into the azure waters of the Bosphorus. Frowning cannon greeted us, on
either side of the beautiful shore, but we who were quitting sanguinary
Russia scarcely gave them a passing glance. The golden domes of Turkish
mosques began to glisten in the distance under the morning sunlight, and
soon we could descry the crescent-topped minarets that here supplant the
cross-capped onion domes of Russia’s churches and cathedrals. Shortly
before noon we rode at anchor close to the Golden Horn.
Welcome to our website – the ideal destination for book lovers and
knowledge seekers. With a mission to inspire endlessly, we offer a
vast collection of books, ranging from classic literary works to
specialized publications, self-development books, and children's
literature. Each book is a new journey of discovery, expanding
knowledge and enriching the soul of the reade

Our website is not just a platform for buying books, but a bridge
connecting readers to the timeless values of culture and wisdom. With
an elegant, user-friendly interface and an intelligent search system,
we are committed to providing a quick and convenient shopping
experience. Additionally, our special promotions and home delivery
services ensure that you save time and fully enjoy the joy of reading.

Let us accompany you on the journey of exploring knowledge and

personal growth!

ebookfinal.com