The document discusses the evolution and mechanisms of the International Monetary System (IMS), focusing on the Bretton Woods System and its objectives of balancing national economic autonomy with international monetary stability. It outlines the historical context of various monetary systems, the functions of money, and the challenges faced, such as the Triffin dilemma that ultimately led to the collapse of Bretton Woods in 1971. The document emphasizes the importance of liquidity, adjustment mechanisms, and confidence in maintaining a stable IMS for global economic growth.
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Lesson 8 - Finance
The document discusses the evolution and mechanisms of the International Monetary System (IMS), focusing on the Bretton Woods System and its objectives of balancing national economic autonomy with international monetary stability. It outlines the historical context of various monetary systems, the functions of money, and the challenges faced, such as the Triffin dilemma that ultimately led to the collapse of Bretton Woods in 1971. The document emphasizes the importance of liquidity, adjustment mechanisms, and confidence in maintaining a stable IMS for global economic growth.
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International Finance: Bretton Woods
System B. Adjustment Mechanism - System must
specify methods to resolve balance of International Monetary System (IMS) payment (BOP) disequilibria.
What is money? BOP - All payments between a country and
→ Any good that is widely accepted in its trading partners. exchange of goods and services, as well as payment of debts. Disequilibria - imbalance
3 Functions of Money C. Confidence - Sound IMS should provide
1. Medium of exchange – money used for confidence in the system. buying and selling goods and services 2. Unit of account – common standard for History of IMS measuring relative worth of goods and 1. Era of Specie money services 2. Era of political money 3. Store of value – convenient way to store 3. Classical Gold Standard wealth 4. Gold Exchange Standard 5. Bretton Woods System Why does it matter? 6. System of Flexible Rates → Sound IMS is prerequisite for stable world economy 1. Era of Specie Money - Pre-modern era → Requirement for growth of world → Specie money - metal money in trade and foreign investment circulation. → money in the form of coins, precious Requirement for Stable IMS stones (as opposed to paper money) 1. Liquidity → Example: A roman coin 2. Adjustment Mechanism → Governments had no control over 3. Confidence monetary issues (i.e. money flow) → Another problem: chronic specie A. Liquidity - Amount of assets (e.g., scarcity money) that can be easily available to finance trade 2. Era of Political Money - 18th and 19th century Market Liquidity - describes how easily an → Financial revolution: introduction of item can be traded for another item, or into paper money the common currency within an economy. → Government started printing money → Money is the most liquid asset and acquired extensive control over because it is universally recognized money supply. and accepted as the common → Example of a paper money is currency. Chinese paper money during 1200s → IMS should provide adequate → Crucial macroeconomic variable: liquidity to finance international a. Government’s influence over economic transactions. activities → Government could solve inadequacy of specie money Why did the Classical Gold Standard a. E.g., Governments could fight against collapse? deflationary pressure → Rise of warfare states → But this can also create inflationary → Major consequence of WWI: bias nationalization of IMS a. Too much monetary injection could cause → States safeguarded their gold inflation (e.g. hyperinflation during Weimar supplies, disengaged from fixed Republic) exchange rate. b. May diminish value of currencies c. Could cause instability in IMS 4. Gold Exchange Standard - Interregnum period (period between WWI and II) Dilemma: → Currency tied to gold, but the return → States wanted both flexibility in to gold standard was ruled out domestic economic policies and → Instead of gold, states could use stability in IMS gold-backed currencies such as British → BUT, trade-off between autonomous pound or sterling domestic economic policies and stable → Gold Exchange only survived a few monetary order exists. years. Why? → The way this dilemma was resolved a. Rise of welfare state characterizes the subsequent phases b. Advent of Keynesianism: governments in history of IMS. should fight against frequent recession and unemployment. 3. The Classical Gold Standard - 1870- → The central belief of Keynesian 1914 economics is that government → Essential Feature: intervention can stabilize the a. Nations fixed the value of their currencies economy. Keynes’ theory was the first in terms of gold to sharply separate the study of b. Gold is freely transferable between economic behavior and individual countries incentives from the study of broad → Essentially a fixed rate system aggregate variables and constructs. a. Suppose the US announces a willingness c. Welfare objectives (e.g., continuous to buy gold for $200/ per oz and the UK economic growth and full announces a willingness to buy gold for employment) are more important than £100 per oz. stable international monetary order ← b. Then £1=$2 Rise of labor unions. → Embodied classical liberal economic → Active intervention in monetary principles issue → Very successful IMS: facilitated → The trade-off: growth of world trade and global a. Autonomy of domestic economic policies prosperity over a stable international monetary system. → But at the cost of autonomy in b. “Beggar-thy-neighbor policies”, domestic economic policies competitive depreciation → Great → Worked well till World War I Depression → WWII → Beggar-thy-neighbor refers to supported it had been damaged by war and economic and trade policies that a by the Great Depression of the 1930s. The country enacts that end up adversely second objective was to allow national affecting its neighbors and/or trading governments the freedom to provide partners. Protectionist barriers such as generous welfare programmes and to tariffs, quotas, and sanctions are all intervene in their economies to maintain full examples of policies that can hurt the employment. This second objective was economies of other countries. considered to be incompatible with a full → Competitive devaluation is a return to the free market system as it had theoretical scenario in which one existed in the late 19th century—mainly nation matches an abrupt devaluation because with a free market in international in another country's currency, often in capital, investors could easily withdraw a tit-for-tat manner. In other words, money from nations that tried to implement one nation is matched by a currency interventionist and redistributive policies. devaluation of another, which in turn → Avoided: devalues its currency in response. a. Subordination of domestic economic activities to the stability of the IMS (key 5. Bretton Woods System feature of the Classical Gold Standard). Two goals of the Bretton Woods System b. The sacrifice of the IMS to the domestic a. A world in which governments would policy autonomy (key character of the have considerable leeway to pursue interwar period) national economic objectives, yet c. Intended to enable governments to b. The monetary order was based on fixed pursue Keynesian growth policies at home, exchange rate to prevent competitive without sacrificing international monetary depreciation stability. → In other words, both autonomy and d. Also to achieve a stable international stability. monetary system, without subordinating → Creation of the International autonomy in domestic economic activities. Monetary Fund (IMF) to supervise the Bretton Woods System How the dilemma was solved during the → The compromise of domestic BWS autonomy and stability of IMS: 1. If a country is suffering temporary BOP a. Embedded liberalism - “Unlike the disequilibria, the IMF would provide a economic nationalism of the thirties, it would medium-term loan to the country. be liberalistic in character; unlike the 2. If a country is suffering fundamental BOP liberalism of the gold standard, its liberalism disequilibria, the system would permit a would be predicated upon domestic country to change its exchange rate. interventionism.” - John G. Ruggie. b. Cont. Involving a compromise between The key to the system: two desirable but partially conflicting 1. American economy → dollar objectives. The first objective was to revive 2. Other nations pegged their currencies to free trade. Before World War I, international the dollar (System of fixed XR) trade formed a large portion of global GDP, but the classical liberal order which → The US pledged to keep the dollar convertible into gold at $35 per ounce. → Dollar was the principal medium of exchange, store of value, and unit of account. → It was successful. But why did the system collapse? Answer: Triffin dilemma
Triffin Dilemma - The soundness of the
Bretton Woods system depended on liquidity and international confidence created by the US economy → Every state wants dollars to rectify their BOP problem. → But the US can’t print dollars indefinitely → Inflationary pressure → devalue the worth of dollars. → People will lose confidence in the dollar and in the system. → To provide liquidity, the US would have to run a BOP deficit. → The US BOP deficit in the long run will undermine confidence in the dollar and the system.
Two basic asymmetries:
1. Role of dollar as providing liquidity → US BOP deficit → decreased confidence in the system 2. US, not able to devalue the dollar to improve its BOP position
Collapse of the BWS
August 15, 1971 - Nixon announced that
the US will suspend the convertibility of the dollar into gold.
6. System of Flexible Rates - Kingston
Conference (1976) → The determination of the par value of a currency is the responsibility of the country