Lecture 7
Lecture 7
Lecture 7
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Key Concepts and Skills
➢ Understand how to determine the relevant cash flows for a proposed
project
➢ Know how to project the cash flows and determine if a project is
acceptable
➢ Understand the various methods for computing operating cash flow
➢ Be able to compute the CCA tax shield
➢ Know how to evaluate cost-cutting proposals
➢ Be able to analyze replacement decisions
➢ Understand how to evaluate the equivalent annual cost of a project
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Corporate Valuation, Cash Flows, and
Risk Analysis
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Relevant Cash Flows
➢ The cash flows that should be included in a capital
budgeting analysis are those that will only occur (or not
occur) if the project is accepted.
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Asking the Right Question
➢ You should always ask yourself: “will this cash flow
occur ONLY if we accept the project?”
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Common Types of Cash Flows
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Initial Investment (Initial Cash Flows
CF0)
Initial investment may include:
➢ Cost of equipment (e.g., the price you pay for the machinery)
➢ Related costs
• Shipping cost, set-up costs, installation costs etc.
➢ Opportunity costs
• Cash flow forgone as a result of the investment
➢ Changes in Net Working Capital (NWC)
• NWC = Current Assets – Current Liabilities
• Firms need to keep certain amount of cash to be able to eliminate the
liquidity mismatch
• You usually get NWC back at the end of project
• Sometimes also investments during life of the project
Do not include sunk costs (costs already spent and that cannot be
recovered: “And it’s gone!!!”)
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Estimate Operating Cash Flows (OCF)
2. Top-Down Approach:
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Side Effects
• Side effects matter
– Erosion / cannibalism
▪ e.g., Apple introduces the iPad and MacBook
sales decline
▪ Be Careful! In the 1970s IBM passed on the PC
due to fear of it cannibalizing its mainframe
business and almost went bankrupt as a result.
– Synergies
▪ e.g., Apple introduce the iPhone and iTunes sales
increase
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Allocated Costs
➢ Sometimes the asset you bought for a project is used for
different projects.
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Inflation
➢ Rule: Be consistent!
• Discount nominal cash flows using nominal interest rate (be
careful about depreciation, it is a nominal cash flow).
• Discount real cash flows using real interest rate.
• Approximation:
𝑵𝒐𝒎𝒊𝒏𝒂𝒍 𝑰𝒏𝒕. 𝑹𝒂𝒕𝒆 − 𝑰𝒏𝒇𝒍𝒂𝒕𝒊𝒐𝒏 = 𝑹𝒆𝒂𝒍 𝑰𝒏𝒕. 𝑹𝒂𝒕𝒆
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Interest Expense
➢ Many projects are financed at least partially with debt. Do we
consider interest expense in our incremental cash flows?
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Taxes and Depreciation
◼ Depreciation is not a cash flow item but indirectly impacts
cash flows through (lower) taxes.
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Capital Cost Allowance (CCA)
➢ CCA is depreciation for tax purposes.
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Computing Depreciation
➢ Need to know which asset class is appropriate for tax
purposes.
➢ Straight-line depreciation
• D = (Initial cost – salvage) / number of years
➢ Declining Balance
• Multiply percentage given in CCA table by the un-depreciated
capital cost (UCC)
• Half-year rule
• Can use PV of CCA Tax Shield Formula
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Capital Cost Allowance: Asset Classes
Note that larger CCA rates reduce taxes and increase cash flows as the
CCA is deducted in computing taxable income
You do not need to memorize these rates, they will be given in a problem.
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Depreciation & Tax Shields
➢ Different classes of assets depreciate at different rates.
▪ Purchase a building for $10M. The CCA and Undepreciated Capital Cost (UCC) are:
Year 1: $10𝑀 ∗ 50% ∗ 0.04 = $0.2𝑀; UCC = $10M-$0.2M = $9.8M
Year 2: $9.8𝑀 ∗ 0.04 = $0.392M; UCC = $9.8M – $0.392M = $9.408M
Year 3: ? UCC =?
➢ We will also use straight line depreciation: Dep.=(initial value – salvage value)/number of years. Salvage
value (S) = value of the asset at the end of its accounting life. Usually, S=0.
• Purchase a building for $10M. Assuming it will last 25 years. The Straight-line
depreciation is:
𝐶𝐹1
𝑃𝑉 =
𝑘−𝑔
Where CF1 is the cash flow at year 1 (the depreciation tax shield)
k is discount rate
g is the cash flow growth rate
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Tax Shield Over Time
Let the Asset Cost be $100K, the CCA Rate be 10%, and the Marginal Tax
Rate is 40%
But there is the 50% rule, and the cash flow is decreasing
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Simplification for PV CCA Tax Shield
◼ PV of a perpetuity decreasing at a rate d
T = Firm’s marginal Tax Rate
d = CCA Rate
PV year one of CCA TdC0 C0 = Capital Cost of Asset
0.5
k +d k = discount rate (before was r)
TdC0 1
0.5
PV year two of CCA k + d 1+ k
TdC0 1 + 0.5k
Total
k + d 1 + k
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What if we Sell? Tax Shield Over Time
If you sell the asset at the end of the 10th year, the tax shield looks like
as follows:
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Last Step: Salvage Value (S)
◼ What if we sell the asset for S? We don’t get all of the CCA deductions:
Td ( S )
k +d
◼ If the sale occurs in year n?
Td ( S ) 1
n
k + d (1 + k )
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PV of CCA Tax Shield Formula
C0 dT 1 + 0.5𝑘 𝑆𝑑𝑇 1
PV tax shield on CCA = × − ×
d+k 1+𝑘 𝑑 + 𝑘 (1 + 𝑘)𝑛
➢ Where:
• C0 = Total Capital Investment
• d = CCA tax rate
• T = Corporate Tax Rate
• k = discount rate
• S = Salvage value in year n
• n = number of periods in the project
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Example: Depreciation and Salvage
C0dT 1 + 0.5k S dT 1
PV tax shield on CCA = −
d+k 1+ k d + k (1 + k )n
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Example: Depreciation and Salvage
continued
➢ The delivery and installation costs are
capitalized in the cost of the equipment
C0dT 1 + 0.5k S dT 1
PV tax shield on CCA = −
d+k 1+ k d + k (1 + k )n
= 25,441.05
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The Complete NPV Formula
NPV = – CF0 + PV (after-tax operating income) + PV (CCA tax shields) +
PV (ending cash flows)
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NPV Example
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NPV Example (Solution)
(1) Initial Cash Flows (i.e. CFo) =>
Capital costs for depreciation purposes = $105,000 + $5,000 = $110,000
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Example: Replacement Problem
➢ Original Machine ➢ New Machine
• Initial cost = 100,000 • Initial cost = 150,000
• CCA rate = 20% • 5-year life
• Purchased 5 years ago • Salvage in 5 years = 0
• Salvage today = • Cost savings = 50,000 per
65,000 year
• Salvage in 5 years = • CCA rate = 20%
10,000 ➢ Required return = 10%
➢ Tax rate = 40%
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Example: Replacement Problem
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Example: Replacement Problem
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NPV Example (Solution)
(1) Initial Cash Flows (i.e. CFo) =>
Investment in new equipment + sale of old equipment= $-150,000 + $65,000
Opportunity cost of the loss of Tax shield from the old equipment
-( 65,000×0.2×0.4
0.10+0.20
×
1+0.5×0.1
1.10
−
10,000×0.2×0.4
0.10+0.20
1
x 1.105 )
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Example: Replacement Problem
1
1 −
1.15 10,000
NPV = −150,000 + 65,000 + 50,000(1 − 0.4) − 5
0 .10 1.10
NPV = 45,806.54
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Example: Cost Cutting
• Your company is considering a new production system that will initially
cost $1 million. It will save $300,000 a year in inventory and receivables
management costs. The system is expected to last for five years and will
be depreciated at a CCA rate of 20%. The system is expected to have a
salvage value of $50,000 at the end of year 5. There is no impact on net
working capital. The marginal tax rate is 40%. The required return is 8%.
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Example: Cost Cutting
Initial Cost of New Equipment 1,000,000
Expected Salvage of New Equipment 50,000
After-tax Savings 180,000=300,000*(1-0.4)
Tax Rate 40%
CCA Rate 20%
Discount Rate 8%
Number of periods 5
Year 1 2 3 4 5
After-tax Savings 180,000 180,000 180,000 180,000 180,000
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Example: Evaluating Projects of Unequal
Lives
▪ There are times when application of the NPV rule can lead to the
wrong decision.
▪ The Equivalent Annual Cost (EAC) is the value of the level payment
annuity that has the same PV as our original set of cash flows.
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Example: Evaluating Projects of Unequal
Lives
➢ A company is considering two mutually exclusive pieces of machinery.
➢ Machine A costs $40,000, lasts 6 years, and generates yearly cost
savings of:
$8,000; $14,000; $13,000; $12,000; $11,000; $10,000
➢ Machine B costs $20,000, lasts 3 years, and generates yearly cost
savings of $7,000,13,000,12,000
➢ WACC = 11.5%
➢ NPV of A is $7,165, and for B is $5,391
➢ But Machine B lasts half as long!
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Example: Evaluating Projects of Unequal
Lives
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Summary
➢ You should know:
• How to determine the relevant incremental cash flows
that should be considered in capital budgeting
decisions
• How to calculate the CCA tax shield for a given
investment
• How to perform a capital budgeting analysis for:
• Cost cutting problems
• Replacement problems
• Projects of different lives
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