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Appendices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 311
Appendix 1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 313
Appendix 2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 329
Bibliography . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 363
Index . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 369
Preface
This book is concerned with both mathematical theory of stochastic processes and
some theoretical aspects of statistics for stochastic processes. Our general idea was to
combine classic topics of the theory of stochastic processes – measure-theoretic
issues of existence, processes with independent increments, Gaussian processes,
martingales, continuity and related properties of trajectories and Markov properties –
with contemporary subjects – stochastic analysis, stochastic differential equations,
fractional Brownian motion and parameter estimation in diffusion models. A more
detailed exposition of the contents of the book is given in the Introduction.
The book is targeted at the widest audience: students of mathematical and related
programs, postgraduate students, postdoctoral researchers, lecturers, researchers,
practitioners in the fields concerned with the application of stochastic processes, etc.
The book would be most useful when accompanied by a problem in stochastic
processes; we recommend [GUS 10] as it matches our topics best.
We would like to express our gratitude to everyone who made the creation of this
book possible. In particular, we would like to thank Łukasz Stettner, Professor at the
Department of Probability Theory and Mathematics of Finance, Institute of
Mathematics, Polish Academy of Sciences; Luca Di Persio, Assistant Professor at the
Department of Computer Science at the University of Verona; Evgeny Spodarev,
Professor and Director of the Institute of Stochastics at Ulm University, for their
hospitality while hosting Yuliya Mishura during lecture courses. We would also like
to thank Alexander Kukush, Professor at the Department of Mathematical Analysis
of Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv, for proofreading the statistical part
of the manuscript, and Evgeniya Munchak, PhD student at the Department of
Probability, Statistics, and Actuarial Mathematics of Taras Shevchenko National
University of Kyiv, for her help in typesetting the manuscript.
Yuliya M ISHURA
Georgiy S HEVCHENKO
September 2017
Introduction
In the world that surrounds us, a lot of events have a random (nondeterministic)
structure. At molecular and subatomic levels, all natural phenomena are random.
Movement of particles in the surrounding environment is accidental. Numerical
characteristics of cosmic radiation and the results of monitoring the effect of ionizing
radiation are random. The majority of economic factors surrounding asset prices on
financial markets vary randomly. Despite efforts to mitigate risk and randomness,
they cannot be completely eliminated. Moreover, in complex systems, it is often
easier to reach an equilibrium state when they are not too tightly controlled.
Summing-up, chance manifests itself in almost everything that surrounds us, and
these manifestations vary over time. Anyone can simulate time-varying randomness
by tossing a coin or rolling a dice repeatedly and recording the results of successive
experiments. (If a physical random number is unavailable, one of the numerous
computer algorithms to generate random numbers can be used.) In view of this
ubiquity of randomness, the theory of probability and stochastic processes has a long
history, despite the fact that the rigorous mathematical notion of probability was
introduced less than a century ago. Let us speak more on this history.
People have perceived randomness since ancient times, for example, gambling
already existed in ancient Egypt before 3000 BC. It is difficult to tell exactly when
systematic attempts to understand randomness began. Probably, the most notable
were those made by the prominent ancient Greek philosopher Epicurus (341–270
BC). Although his views were heavily influenced by Democritus, he attacked
Democritus’ materialism, which was fully deterministic. Epicurus insisted that all
atoms experience some random perturbations in their dynamics. Although modern
physics confirms these ideas, Epicurus himself attributed the randomness to the free
will of atoms. The phenomenon of random detours of atoms was called clinamen
(cognate to inclination) by the Roman poet Lucretius, who had brilliantly exposed
Epicurus’ philosophy in his poem On the Nature of Things.
xiv Theory and Statistical Applications of Stochastic Processes
Moving closer to present times, let us speak of the times where there was no
theory of stochastic processes, physics was already a well-developed subject, but
there wasn’t any equipment suitable to study objects in sufficiently small microscopic
detail. In 1825, botanist Robert Brown first observed a phenomenon, later called
Brownian motion, which consisted of a chaotic movement of a pollen particle in a
vessel. He could not come up with a model of this system, so just stated that the
behavior is random.
A suitable model for the phenomenon arose only several decades later, in a very
different problem, concerned with the pricing of financial assets traded on a stock
exchange. A French mathematician Louis Bachelier (1870–1946), who aimed to find
a mathematical description of stochastic fluctuations of stock prices, provided a
mathematical model in his thesis “Théorie de la spéculation” [BAC 95], which was
defended at the University of Paris in 1900. The model is, in modern terms, a
stochastic process, which is characterized by the fact that its increments in time, in a
certain statistical sense, are proportional to the square root of the time change; this
“square root” phenomenon had also be observed earlier in physics; Bachelier was the
first to provide a model for it. Loosely speaking, according to Bachelier, the asset
price St at time t is modeled by
√
St = at + b tξ,
The work of Bachelier was undervalued, probably due to the fact that applied
mathematics was virtually absent at the time, as well as concise probability theory.
Bachelier spent his further life teaching in different universities in France and never
returned to the topic of his thesis. It was only brought to the spotlight 50 years after
its publication, after the death of Bachelier. Now, Bachelier is considered a precursor
of mathematical finance, and the principal organization in this subject bears his name:
Bachelier Finance Society.
Other works which furthered understanding towards Brownian motion were made
by prominent physicists, Albert Einstein (1879–1955) and Marian Smoluchowski
(1872–1917). Their articles [EIN 05] and [VON 06] explained the phenomenon of
Brownian motion by thermal motion of atoms and molecules. According to this
theory, the molecules of a gas are constantly moving with different speeds in
different directions. If we put a particle, say of pollen which has a small surface area,
inside the gas, then the forces from impacts with different molecules do not
compensate each other. As a result, this Brownian particle will experience a chaotic
movement with velocity and direction changing approximately 1014 times per
second. This gave a physical explanation to the phenomenon observed by the
botanist. It also turned out that a kinetic theory of thermal motion required a
Introduction xv
stochastic process Bt . Einstein and Smoluchowski not only described this stochastic
process, but also found its important probabilistic characteristics.
An alternative explanation, given, for example, in [DEL 17], attributes the term
“stochastic” to Ladislaus Władysław Bortkiewicz (1868–1931), Russian economist
and statistician, who in his paper, Die Iterationen [BOR 17], defined the term
“stochastic” as “the investigation of empirical varieties, which is based on probability
theory, and, therefore, on the law of large numbers. But stochastic is not simply
probability theory, but above all probability theory and applications”. This meaning
correlates with the one given in Ars Conjectandi by Jacob Bernoulli, so the true
origin of the term probably is somewhere between these two stories. It is also worth
mentioning that Bortkiewicz is known for proving the Poisson approximation
theorem about the convergence of binomial distributions with small parameters to the
Poisson distribution, which he called the law of small numbers.
other things, he wrote the first extensive monograph on the (mathematical model of)
Brownian motion [LÉV 65].
The ideas of Wiener were developed by Kiyoshi Itô (1915–2008), who introduced
an integral of random functions with respect to the Wiener process in [ITÔ 44]. This
lead to the emergence of a broad field of stochastic analysis, a probabilistic
counterpart to real integro-differential calculus. In particular, he defined stochastic
differential equations (the name is self-explanatory), which allowed us to study
diffusion processes, which are natural generalizations of the Wiener process. As with
Lévy, many objects in stochastic analysis are named after Itô: Itô integral, Itô
process, Itô representation, Wiener-Itô decomposition, etc.
Our book, of course, is not the first book on stochastic processes. They are
described in many other texts, from some of which we have borrowed many ideas
presented here, and we are grateful to their authors for the texts. It is impossible to
mention every single book here, so we cite only few texts of our selection. We
apologize to the authors of many other wonderful texts which we are not able to cite
here.
[GIK 04a, GIK 04b, GIK 07], the textbooks of Z. Brzezniak and T. Zastawniak
[BRZ 99], K.-L. Chung [CHU 79], G. Lawler [LAW 06], S. Resnick [RES 92],
S. Ross [ROS 96], R. Schilling and L. Partzsch [SCH 14], A. Skorokhod [SKO 65],
J. Zabczyk [ZAB 04]. It is also worth mentioning the book by A. Bulinskiy and
A. Shiryaev [BUL 05], from which we borrowed many ideas; unfortunately, it is only
available in Russian. Martingale theory is well presented in the books of R. Liptser
and A. Shiryaev [LIP 89], J. Jacod and A. Shiryaev [JAC 03], L. Rogers and
D. Williams [ROG 00a], and the classic monograph of D. Revuz and M. Yor
[REV 99]. There are many excellent texts related to different aspects of Lévy
processes, including the books of D. Applebaum [APP 09], K. Sato [SAT 13],
W. Schoutens [SCH 03], and the collection [BAR 01].
Different aspects of statistical methods for stochastic processes are covered by the
books of P. Brockwell and R. Davis [BRO 06], C. Heyde [HEY 97], Y. Kutoyants
[KUT 04], G. Seber and A. Lee [SEB 03].
Finally, fractional Brownian motion, one of the main research interests of the
authors of this book, is covered by the books of F. Biagini et al. [BIA 08], Y. Mishura
[MIS 08], I. Nourdin [NOU 12], D. Nualart [NUA 06], and by lecture notes of
G. Shevchenko [SHE 15].
Our book consists of two parts: the first is concerned with the theory of stochastic
processes and the second with statistical aspects.
In the first chapter, we define the main subjects: stochastic process, trajectory and
finite-dimensional distributions. We discuss the fundamental issues: existence and
construction of a stochastic process, measurability and other essential properties, and
sigma-algebras generated by stochastic processes.
In the fifth chapter, we attempted to cover the main topics in the martingale
theory. The main focus is on the discrete time case; however, we also give several
results for stochastic processes. In particular, we discuss the notions of stochastic
basis with filtration and stopping times, limit behavior of martingales, optional
stopping theorem, Doob decomposition, quadratic variations, maximal inequalities
by Doob and Burkholder-Davis-Gundy, and the strong law of large numbers.
The seventh chapter discusses Markov processes. The definition, together with
several important examples, is followed by analytical theory of Markov semigroups.
The chapter is concluded by the investigation of diffusion processes, which serves as
a bridge to stochastic analysis discussed in the following chapters. We provide a
definition and establish important criteria and characterization of diffusion processes.
We pay particular attention to the forward and backward Kolmogorov equations,
which are of great importance for applications.
The ninth chapter, which closes the theoretical part of the book, is concerned with
stochastic differential equations. We give a definition of stochastic differential
equations and establish the existence and uniqueness of its solution. Several
properties of the solution are established, including integrability, continuous
dependence of the solution on the initial data and on the coefficients of the equation.
Furthermore, we prove that solutions to stochastic differential equations are diffusion
processes and provide a link to partial differential equations, the Feynman-Kac
formula. Finally, we discuss the diffusion model of a financial market, giving notions
of arbitrage, equivalent martingale measure, pricing and hedging of contingent
claims.
The tenth chapter opens the second part of the book, which is devoted to statistical
aspects. It studies the estimation of parameters of stochastic processes in different
scenarios: in a linear regression model with discrete time, in a continuous time linear
model driven by Wiener process, in models with fractional Brownian motions, in a
linear autoregressive model and in homogeneous diffusion models.
Auxiliary results, which are referred to in the book, are collected in Appendices
1 and 2. In Appendix 1, we give essential facts from calculus, measure theory and
theory of operators. Appendix 2 contains important facts from probability theory.
PART 1
D EFINITION 1.1.– A random variable on the probability space (Ω, F) with the values
ξ
in the measurable space (S, Σ) is a measurable map Ω → S, i.e. a map for which the
following condition holds: the pre-image ξ −1 (B) of any set B ∈ Σ belongs to F.
Equivalent forms of this definition are: for any B ∈ Σ, we have that
ξ −1 (B) ∈ F,
{ω : ξ(ω) ∈ B} ∈ F.
Ω = {ω1 , ω2 , ω3 , ω4 , ω5 , ω6 }, F = 2Ω , S = 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, Σ = 2S .
Language: English
MILITARY DICTIONARY
AND
G A Z ET T EER .
COMPRISING
BY
T H O M A S W I L H E L M,
CAPTAIN EIGHTH INFANTRY.
REVISED EDITION.
PHILADELPHIA:
L. R. HAMERSLY & CO.
1881.
THIS COMPILATION
IS, WITH RESPECT AND GRATITUDE, DEDICATED
BY HIS OBEDIENT SERVANT,
THE COMPILER.
PREFACE TO THE FIRST EDITION.
October, 1879.
PREFACE TO THE REVISED
EDITION.
May, 1881.
AUTHORITIES CONSULTED IN THE
COMPILATION OF THIS WORK.
GERMAN WORKS.
Dienst-Vorschriften der Königlich Preussischen Armee—Karl von Helldorff.
Die Lehre vom neueren Festungskrieg—W. Rüstow.
Grundzüge der Taktik der drei Waffen, Infanterie, Kavallerie, und
Artillerie—Dr. H. v. Brandt.
Heerwesen und Infanteriedienst der Königlich Preussischen Armee—A. v.
Witzleben.
Kriegsfeuerwerkerei zum Gebrauch für die Königlich Preussischen Artillerie
—A. Bath.
Kriegswörterbuch—Carl Ad. Loehr.
Militair Conversations-Lexikon—Hans Eggert Willibald von der Lühe.
FRENCH WORKS.
Encyclopédie Militaire et Maritime.
Géographie Phisique, Historique et Militaire—Théophile Lava.
Législation et Administration Militaires—M. Léon Guillot.
Sur la Formation des Troupes pour le Combat—Jomini.
IMPORTANT MAXIMS.
Misfortune will certainly fall upon the land where the wealth of the
tax-gatherer or the greedy gambler in stocks stands, in public
estimation, above the uniform of the brave man who sacrifices his
life, health, or fortune in the defense of his country.
Officers should feel a conviction that resignation, bravery, and
faithful attention to duty are virtues without which no glory is
possible, no army is respectable, and that firmness amid reverses is
more honorable than enthusiasm in success.
It is not well to create a too great contempt for the enemy, lest
the morale of the soldier should be shaken if he encounter an
obstinate resistance.
It would seem to be easy to convince brave men that death comes
more surely to those who fly in disorder than to those who remain
together and present a firm front to the enemy, or who rally
promptly when their lines have been for the instant broken.
Courage should be recompensed and honored, the different
grades in rank respected, and discipline should exist in the
sentiments and convictions rather than in external forms only.—
Jomini.
An army without discipline is but a mob in uniform, more
dangerous to itself than to its enemy. Should any one from ignorance
not perceive the immense advantages that arise from a good
discipline, it will be sufficient to observe the alterations that have
happened in Europe since the year 1700.—Saxe.
If the first duty of a state is its own security, the second is the
security of neighboring states whose existence is necessary for its
own preservation.—Jomini’s “Life of Napoleon.”
A good general, a well-organized system, good instruction, and
severe discipline, aided by effective establishments, will always make
good troops, independently of the cause for which they fight. At the
same time, a love of country, a spirit of enthusiasm, a sense of
national honor, will operate upon young soldiers with advantage.
The officer who obeys, whatever may be the nature or extent of
his command, will always stand excused executing implicitly the
orders which have been given to him.
Every means should be taken to attach the soldier to his colors.
This is best accomplished by showing consideration and respect to
the old soldier.
The first qualification of a soldier is fortitude under fatigue and
privation. Courage is only the second; hardship, poverty, and want
are the best schools for a soldier.
Troops, whether halted, or encamped, or on the march, should be
always in favorable position, possessing the essentials required for a
field of battle.
Some men are so physically and morally constituted as to see
everything through a highly-colored medium. They raise up a picture
in the mind on every slight occasion, and give to every trivial
occurrence a dramatic interest. But whatever knowledge, or talent,
or courage, or other good qualities such men may possess, nature
has not formed them for the command of armies or the direction of
great military operations.—Napoleon’s “Maxims of War.”
M I L I T A R Y D I C T I O N A R Y.
A.