Nhien Ngo

Hanoi, 20 July 2023

1
• Overview Vietnam’s Clean Energy Transition
• Global and National Commitments
• Different targets: NDC – PDP8 – JETP
• Clean Energy Transition Roadmap
• Technological Feasibility
• Cost and Affordability
• Energy Security
• Grid Integration and Stability
• Environmental Impact
• Policy and Regulatory Framework
• Stakeholder Engagement

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Hanoi, 20 July 2023

3
 Installed capacity 2011 – 2022 Installed capacity 2022
GW

77
78.8 GW (Total: 78,8 MW)
80
Import
69 Biomass 619
70 17 356
17 1%
1%
Solar
60 55 17 5 16567 Coal
4 21% 25302
49 5 32%
50
43 45
22
39 22
40 21
34 20 21
19
18
28 Wind
30 17
25 4667
23 16 6%
20 13
12
10
Oil
10
55% 1579
2%
includes
0 Gas
hydro, wind 7398
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
& solar Hydro 9%
22345
28%
Coal Oil Gas Hydro Wind Solar Biomass Import

Source: VIET’s analyze based on the data published by EVN Jan 2023 4
 Power generation by sources 2011 - 2022 Power generation by sources 2022
300 (Total 268 TWh)
TWh

Other
Average annual growth 11%/year Average annual growth 4%/year RE 4.1
268 34.8
250 255 35 13%
2%
48%
243
11 30 includes
237
6
hydro, wind
217 & solar
200
195
180 Gas
29.5
161
11%
150
142
126
117 Hydro
104 95.0
100
35%

50

0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Coal
105.0
Other RE Hydro Gas Coal
39%

Source: VIET’s analysis based on the data published by EVN Jan 2023 5
 Installed capacity (GW) and share (%) by Share of power capacity based on
market participation ownership in 2022
Import
Imported power EVN
0.6
plants, 0.8, 1% 8.9
1%
11%
EVNGENCO 2
Strategic
4.6
hydro power
Private 6%
plants, 8.9, 11%
33.1
42%
EVNGENCO 3
Direct trading 8.4
power plants, 11%
30.9, 38%

Indirect EVNGENCO 1
trading power 7.6
plants, 40.4, 9%
50%
PVN
BOT TKV 6.1
7.7 1.8 8%
10% 2%

Source: VIET’s analyze based on the data published by EVN Jan 2023 6
 POWER PRODUCTION AND DEMAND BY AREA North - Central transmission volume (GWh)
(BILLION KWH) 800
Production Demand
600
123.19

121.86
121.39

400

200

95.89
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
North to Centre Centre to North

Centre – South transmission volume (GWh)

53.78

4000
3000
24.48

2000
1000
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

NORTH CENTRE SOUTH Centre to South Southe to Centre

Source: VIET’s analyze based on the data published by EVN NLDC Jan 2023 7
 2022 Transitioning project (VND/kWh)
Solar farm: 1.184,9
Floating solar: 1.508,27
Onshore wind: 1.587,12
Offshore wind: 1.815,95

9.21 GW solar (150 plants)

7.66 GW RTS (104k systems)

5.46 GW wind (105 plants)

8
 Technology Ceiling price
(VND/kWh)
Solar farm 1.184,9

Floating solar 1.508,27

Onshore wind 1.587,12

Offshore wind 1.815,95

Source: MOIT, Decision 21/QD-BCT dated 7 Jan 2023

Source: EVN, updated to 14 Jul 2023

https://www.evn.com.vn/c3/nang-luong-tai-tao/Cac-du-an-NLTT-chuyen-tiep--141-2014.aspx
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 Capacity of plants participate in power market by 2022
• By end of 2021, 47.3
GW (61% total system 16.00
16.0

capacity) participated
14.00
in power market
• 29.3 GW directly 12.00

participated 10.00
• 18 GW indirectly

Capacity (GW)
8.7

participated 8.00 7.6

• 2.9 GW expected to 6.00 5.2 5.4

join directly in 2022 4.00

• Plants <30W and RE is 2.00

1.9

not obligated to 0.8

1.2
0.6
participate 0.00
Coal power Gas turbin Hydro Hydro Hydro Strategic Multi- BOT In industrial Imported
(reservoir (reservoir (reservoir purpose hydros park and sell
regulated >1 regulated > 2 regulated <2 (SMHP) & surplus power
week) days to 1 week) days) hydros
operated with
SMHP
Direct participation Indirect participation

10
Source: VIET’s analyze based on the Decision 97/QD-DTDL dated 31/12/2021 of ERAV
Hanoi, 20 July 2023

11
Prime Minister announced that Vietnam will develop and
implement strong mitigation measures with its resources,
together with international collaboration and support to
reach Net zero emissions in 2050.

122 countries committed to reducing methane emissions

from human activity in all sectors by -30% by 2030 compared
to 2020.

46 countries signed a declaration to promote electricity

generation from clean energy sources and transition of
unabated coal power by the 2030s and 2040s

145 countries signed a commitment to stop and reverse

deforestation by 2030 while ensuring sustainable
development and promoting displacement to include rural
areas .
12
 NDC’s BAU for 2030 was calculated based on electricity demand and power sources in PDP VII revised (same as BAU in NDC 2020)
• 73% GHG emissions~ 678.4 MtCO2eq from energy
• 49% GHG emissions ~ 452.3 MtCO2eq from “Energy industry” ~ “power sector”
• Total installed capacity~ 129.5 GW (of which: 55.3 GW coal power; 19 GW gas; 12 GW solar, and 6 GW wind).

Comparison of total emissions in 2030 under BAU scenario, Commitment to reduce with domestic resources
and Commitment to reduce with international support
1200

1000 Reduction
928 MtCO2 146.3
Total emissions (MtCO2eq)

140.3 Total emissions after reduction

928 MtCO2 782 MtCO2
800 46.3 112.4 403.7
782 MtCO2 Industrial Process
112.1 37.6
99.7 Waste
600 90.5
16.9
524 MtCO2 LULUCF
61.2 524 MtCO2
400
452.3
49%
49% 420.6 Agriculture
287.3 Energy industry
200 26.4 14.7 Household, agriculture and services (energy)
88.1 77.5 11.3
68.8
111.6 100.8 84.1 Transportaion
0 -49.2 (81.7) (95.8) Manufacturing & construction

-200
BAU Unconditional (-15.8%) Conditional (-43.5%)
13
Nguồn: NDC cập nhật tháng 11/2022
• G7 + DM + NO to mobilize $7.75 • VN Power sector CO2 emissions to
peak at 170 Mt in 2030 instead of 240 Mt
billion in public sector financing at more
in 2035.
attractive terms than private capital markets.
• VN to limit coal power capacity to 30.2 GW
• A consortium of private financial institutions,
by 2030 from a projected 37 GW.
the Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero
(GFANZ) to raise at least $7.75 billion • Renewable sources including hydroelectricity
will account for at least 47% of electricity
in private financing.
production in 2030.

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 JETP’s emission reduction goal in power sector
JETP target on share of RE
TWh 300
600 567
250 240 Mt
500 RE (incl. hydro)
account for at least
47% power generation 200 170 Mt

CO2 emission (Mt)

400
150
Shift of
300 268 peak emissions
100 37
200 GW
30,2
50 GW
266.5
100
129.8 0
JETP Before JETP
0
2022 2030
Coal Gas LNG *
RE (inl. hydro) Other sources
* Emissions estimated by VIETSE
15
Source: VIETSE plotted based on JETP Declaration
 Power sector's emissions in 2030 PDP8 - Power sector's emission after 2030
Compatible with NZE 2050
NDC - 15.8% NDC - 43.5% PDP8 JETP
Min emissions Max emissions
450 420.6 450
400 400
350 350
300 287.3 300
254

MtCO2
254 (max)
MtCO2

250 250
204
200 204 170 200
(min)
150 150
100 Conditional 100

50 50 27 31

0 0
2030 2030 2050

Conditions to 170 Mt peak emissions

Receiving strong supports (financial, technologies and governance) of IPG of JETP

Source: NDC updated 11/2022

JETP Vietnam Declaration https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/statement_22_7724 16
Decision No. 500/QD-TTg dated 15/05/2023 of the Prime Minister
 PDP8 KB_JETP KB_NZE KB_NDC

296

259 252

198 198
189
MtCO2

173
170 154
144
131
158
JETP

90
77
43
30 30
30
170 254 115 30

2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

17
 2022 good hydro + new renewables =
48% carbon free electricity
RE Other
34.8 4.1
13% 2%

Gas
29.5
11%
Hydro
95.0
35%

PDP8
May 2023

Coal
105.0
39%

Source: VIETSE data presented using JETP Declaration, EVN data as reference 18
Source: VIETSE data presented using JETP Declaration and energy finance data as reference 19
Source: VIETSE data presented using JETP Declaration and energy finance data as reference 20
 External debt
disbursements from
the government
decreased from 3.5
billion USD in 2017 to
2.2 billion USD in
2020.

Source: VIETSE data presented using JETP Declaration and energy finance data as reference 21
Hanoi, 20 July 2023

22
 Base load scenario High load scenario

1,400
1,400
1378.7
1224.3
1,200
1,200

1114.1 1254.6
1,000 1,000

800 800

TWh
TWh

567
600
567 600

378.3 505.2 378.3 505.2

400 400

335 335
200 200

0 0
2025 2030 2050 2025 2030 2050

Commercial electricity Produced and imported electricity Commercial electricity Produced and imported electricity

GDP growth: 7% for 2021-2030 GDP growth: 7% for 2021-2030

6.5% for 2031-2050 7.5% for 2031-2050
Power loss for national system is accounting ~ 6% in 2030 and ~ 5% in 2050. 23
Source: Decision No. 500/QD-TTg dated 15/05/2023 of the Prime Minister
 600
573.1 Coal
Installed capacity (GW)

Technological Feasibility?
46.2 Coal converted to biomass/amoniac
11
500 490.5 Domestic gas
45.6
30.9 Domestic gas converted to LNG
6
11
30.7 Domestic gas converted to
6 hydrogen
400 LNG
189.3
LNG co-fired/co nverted to hydrogen

168.6
CHP
300
69.8% Hydro
69.5% RE Onshore wind
RE 91.5

200 70 Pmax=208.5 Offshore wind

Pmax=185.2
Solar
150.5
60.1 77.1
12.8 Biomass, waste and other RE
6
100
21.9 48%
Pmax=90.5 36 Pump hydro and storage
29.3 RE 4.5
36
4.5
22.4 25.4 Import
25.4
14.9 7
7
30.1 32.4 25.6 Flexible sources
0
2030 2050 (base load) 2050 (high load) Source: Decision No. 500/QD-TTg dated 15/05/2023 of the Prime Minister 24
 Same power structure for base load and high-demand scenarios

Technological Feasibility?
Prioritize the development of new capacity

35 1) LNG: 22.4 GW Vietnam’s targeted 2023-2030 gross capacity addition

2) Onshore wind: 17.2
30 3) Offshore wind: 6 GW
4.8
7
25

20
GW

15
25.3 17.2
7.5 22.4 22.3 3.9
10

5 8.9
7.4 6
4.7 4.4
2.7 1.9 2.7 0.3
0 0.6

rt
d

d
as

o
al

RE

es
G

lar

ge
in

in
dr
CH

po
LN
Co

c
g

ra
So
w

w
Hy

er

ur
Im
tic

to
re

h
re

so
ds
es

ot
ho
ho

le
m

an
s

fs

ib
an
Do

On

Of

ex
o
te

dr

Fl
as

hy
w

p
s,

m
as

Pu
om

Installed capacity in Additional capacity in the period

Bi

2022 2023-2030

25
Source: Decision No. 500/QD-TTg dated 15/05/2023 of the Prime Minister
 Share of RE in power generation in 2030 Share of RE in power generation in 2030
Base load scenario High load scenario
Total produced electricity: 567 TWh Total produced electricity: 567 TWh
Biomass and Biomass and
REs account for 30.9% of other RE Import REs account for 39.2% of

Energy Security?
other RE Import
total power generation 1.4% 3.3% total power generation 1.9% 3.3%
Solar Solar
5.5% 5.8%
Wind Coal
6.8% 29.7%

Wind
Coal 13.6%
42.4%

Hydro
17.2%

Hydro
17.9% Domestic gas
converted to
LNG
Domestic gas
LNG 12.9%
converted to
10.1% LNG
LNG
12.8% 14.7%

26
Source: Prime Minister’s Decision No. 500/QD-TTg on PDP8 – dated May 15, 2023
 50
47
45

Energy Security?
40
35
Number of units

30
25
20 17
15
10
5 4 4
2
0
[0, 10] (10, 20] (20, 30] (30, 40] (40, 50]
Age group

27
Source: VIETSE analyses based on EVN/NLDC’s data
 Installed capacity of SOEs by source Estimated CO2 emissions of SOEs in the power system

10000 160
133
9000 170 140
39
66 42 12
8000
120
7000 2945
100
6000
74 8

MtCO2
MW

5000 5,734 80
8,557 697 2781
4000 60 126
150
3000 5,022
40 87
2,240
2000 5
30
2,445
2,153 20
1000 1,630 32 26
1,333 4
586 305 11 8 11
0 150 0
EVN EVNGENCO EVNGENCO EVNGENCO PVN TKV EVNGENCO EVNGENCO EVNGENCO PVN TKV Tổng SOE Cả hệ thống
1 2 3 1 2 3
Hydro Coal Gas Oil Solar Coalthan
Điện Gas khí
Điện

28
 Cost and Affordability?
Installed capacity (GW) and share (%) by market participation

Imported power plants,

0.8, 1%

Strategic hydro power

plants, 8.9, 11%

Direct trading power

plants, 30.9, 38%

Indirect trading power

plants, 40.4, 50%

Source: VIETSE developed SMP forecast based on PDP8 scenarios, Jun 2023 29
 Cost and Affordability?
Source: VIETSE developed SMP forecast based on PDP8 scenarios, Jun 2023 30
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Revised Electricity Law

Renewable Energy Law

Policy and Regulatory Framework?

Power Development Plan to 2030, vision 2045

Energy Master Plan to 2030, vision 2050

Marine Spatial Plan to 2030, vision 2050
Development of competitive power market
Official operation of wholesale competitive market Operation of retail competitive market
EIA Offshore wind
DPPA
Auction mechanism for RE

Transmission grid I&O mechanism

RPS, Emission Trading System

Energy Ports System 2030, vision 2050

Development of Vietnam Energy Information System 31

• A market-oriented approach can significantly accelerate Vietnam's green
energy transition by leveraging the forces of supply and demand, competition,
and price signals to drive investment, innovation, and efficiency in the energy
sector.

• Science evidence backup for a clear vision of energy transition

• Innovation financing mechanisms for energy transition and ensuring the

“JUST” aspect: public/private/blended finance, carbon pricing?

• Improve coordination and collaboration

• Consumer Choice and Awareness.

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