TERMS OF REFERENCE

DEVELOPMENT OF AN ASSESSMENT TOOL FOR JUST AND EQUITABLE

TRANSITIONS (JET) IN RELATION TO THE AGRICULTURE, FORESTRY
AND OTHER LAND USES (AFOLU) SECTOR IN LAC

1. Background
Introduction to Just and Equitable Transition (JET)

The concept of a just transition has evolved and broadened over time and has now become a well-
established part of discussions on how to tackle the challenges of climate change. The concept of a “just
transition” originated in labor movements of the 70s and 80s. These movements campaigned to preserve
jobs, retrain workers and support communities at a time when increased environmental regulation of
polluting industries was leading to job losses. As the impacts of climate change became better understood
and more widely known, it then expanded to cover the idea that communities whose lives and livelihoods
are expected to be impacted by efforts to reduce GHG emissions (e.g., workers in fossil fuel extraction
industries) should be supported to find alternative sources of employment. 1 Over the past few years, the
term “just and equitable transition” (JET) has been used to refer to the process of transitioning from a
fossil fuel–based economy to a more environmentally and socially sustainable and equitable one, while
ensuring that the burdens and benefits of this transition are fairly distributed across different communities
and social groups. Indeed, while transitioning from fossil fuels can provide economic and social benefits,
it can also pose significant challenges for countries and communities that are still dependent on fossil
fuels, on other emissions-intensive sectors, or on the lands that are being repurposed.

JET is now being approached in a range of ways, through attention to both direct and indirect impacts
of the transitions at the country level. JET has also started to be applied to sectors other than the energy
sector, given that each sector has its own requirements for policies and actions to mitigate and adapt to
climate change. More generally, JET can be defined as an approach that recognizes the urgent need for
climate action while also prioritizing social justice and equity. It recognizes that the transition away from
business as usual towards a low-carbon economy and a climate-resilient development pathway can cause
harm and must be guided by principles of fairness, participation, and inclusion. In addition to efforts for
avoiding, minimizing, and managing negative outcomes, a practical yet holistic JET approach should
aim to maximize positive impacts through inclusive analytical approaches and stakeholder engagement
in climate-related policy dialogues. By empowering those most affected by the transition and engaging
them in creating the plans and policies for reform, the transition can be an opportunity to help
marginalized populations access new economic opportunities and to redress long-standing inequalities
within and across countries.

The Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Uses (AFOLU) sector in the Latin America & Caribbean
region

1
Climate Change Committee, The just transition and climate change adaptation, March 2022
https://www.theccc.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/CCC-The-just-transition-and-climate-change-adaptation.pdf
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The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) identifies the Agriculture, Forestry and Other
Land Uses (AFOLU) sector as a significant net source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, contributing
to about 23% of global anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane and nitrous oxide
combined as CO2 equivalents from 2007 to 2016. A distinctive feature of GHG emissions in the Latin
America & Caribbean region (LAC) is the relatively large share that come from AFOLU, which together
account for 47% percent of emissions across the region. Agriculture is the sector with the largest share
of total GHG emissions across LAC at 26%, followed by land use change and forestry at 21%, which is
itself largely driven by expansion of the agricultural frontier.

The AFOLU sector is both highly impacted by and extremely vulnerable to climate change phenomena,
with empirical evidence showing a marked increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather
events—such as droughts, storms, and floods—by an estimated rate of 20% over the last two decades.
These events not only disrupt economic activities but also cause significant damage to livelihoods,
exacerbating the vulnerability of the sector. Moreover, the AFOLU sector in LAC harbors significant
potential for contributing to climate mitigation through the adoption of climate-smart and sustainable
agricultural practices. Research suggests that, if managed sustainably and equitably, the sector could
enhance the resilience and adaptive capacity of the most climate-vulnerable communities. This is
particularly crucial for the poorest segments of the population, many of whom are heavily reliant on
agriculture and forestry for their livelihoods. Additionally, for the region’s indigenous peoples, these
practices are not just economically vital but are also deeply intertwined with their cultural identities,
underscoring the need for inclusive and culturally sensitive approaches to climate adaptation and
mitigation.

In fact, indigenous peoples and local communities are at the heart of land use and employment in the
agricultural sector in Latin America. These groups collectively manage an estimated 40% of all rural
lands across the region, with a significant portion of them falling within indigenous territories. Moreover,
the agricultural sector employs a substantial proportion of the population in Latin America, with
approximately 16% of the total workforce engaged in agriculture, forestry, and fisheries. Indigenous
peoples, in particular, represent a crucial component of this workforce, with over 50% of indigenous
communities directly involved in these sectors, thereby playing a pivotal role in both the economy and
the ecological sustainability of the region.2 This demographic reliance on agriculture highlights the
importance of integrating traditional knowledge and practices with modern scientific approaches to
ensure the resilience and sustainability of the AFOLU sector in LAC.

JET for the AFOLU sector in LAC

Just as climate change impacts exacerbate social inequalities, so too can policies and programs to
advance low carbon development pathways in the AFOLU sector have the same effect if they are not
responsive to the needs and priorities of those most vulnerable. In the same way that phasing out coal
can deeply affect the livelihoods of entire communities dependent on this sector, an agri-food system
transformation at the national level is likely to have significant impacts on a wide range of stakeholders,
from rural agricultural workers to urban consumers—and particularly the poorest and most marginalized
among them.

2
The Outlook for Agriculture and Rural Development in the Americas: A Perspective on Latin America and the Caribbean
2021-2022, https://www.cepal.org/en/publications/47209-outlook-agriculture-and-rural-development-americas-perspective-
latin-america-and
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In this context, JET for the AFOLU sector refers to a transition towards sustainable and regenerative
practices in agriculture, forestry, and other land uses that benefit both the environment and communities
that depend on the resources that are at the heart of these activities. The goal is to ensure that climate
mitigation and adaptation measures adopted in the AFOLU sector are well designed by paying special
attention to the needs of and risks and opportunities for the most vulnerable population segments of the
transition—including indigenous peoples, women and girls, afro-descendants, migrants and the
disabled—and by promoting their active engagement in decision-making processes around JET
pathways.

General examples of JET measures in the AFOLU sector:

o Supporting small-scale farmers: Small-scale farmers are often the most vulnerable to the impacts
of climate change, but they can also play an important role in sustainable agriculture. JET in the
AFOLU sector must prioritize the needs and rights of small-scale farmers and ensure that they
have access to the resources and knowledge they need to adopt sustainable practices, and/or to
retrain them by building capacities to transfer their skills.
o Protecting forests and biodiversity: The AFOLU sector is a major driver of deforestation, which
not only contributes to climate change but also threatens biodiversity and the livelihoods, cultural
identities and, at times, the very existence of indigenous communities. JET in the AFOLU sector
must prioritize forest protection and restoration, while also ensuring that indigenous communities
are involved as partners in transition processes, their rights are realized, and their knowledge is
valued for its contributions to sustainable solutions, better forestry management and agricultural
practices.
o Investing in sustainable infrastructure: To support JET in the AFOLU sector, investments must be
made in sustainable infrastructure, such as renewable energy for agricultural processing and
transportation, as well as sustainable forestry and land use practices, while taking into
consideration land uses, land rights, and trade-offs.

2. Statement of Need
In the coming years LAC countries will focus strongly on mitigation and adaptation measures in the
AFOLU sector. The World Bank is positioning itself to help a wide range of stakeholders in its client
countries understand and respond to the potentially unequal and unjust effects of climate policies. More
specifically, the Inclusion Global Practice has begun to amass considerable experience in how to manage
the justice, equity, and citizen engagement dimensions of national and regional transitions. Yet more
could be done to manage these dimensions more practically and effectively, even as Inclusion’s
experience could benefit from greater breadth.

Although the Bank has developed a variety of diagnostic and advisory tools to support governments
seeking to make a transition away from coal 3, these have focused mainly on the labor impacts (supporting
affected workers) resulting from the decommissioning of coal assets (mines and power plants),

3
Strategies, approaches and methods developed for JET in relation to the energy and extractives sector, such as the
Managing Coal Mine Closure: Achieving a Just Transition for All report (2018),
https://blogs.worldbank.org/energy/tech-tools-help-map-future-post-coal-communities
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predominantly in higher income countries. What is currently missing is an assessment tool for use in
relation to client countries whose main sources of emissions come from AFOLU. Given the emissions
profiles of many countries in LAC, such a tool would have the potential to reinforce the analytical
toolkits currently in use by the Bank (and potentially in other organizations) working to support a just
and equitable approach to the greening of national economies there. The tool could be used to integrate
JET for AFOLU concerns into existing Bank operations and generate ideas for new operations to
promote JET for AFOLU, in line with the objectives of key country products such as the Country
Partnerships Frameworks (CPFs).

This would require hiring a firm to develop a tool that is both flexible and adaptable to diverse
contexts and stakeholder needs. The tool should integrate a combination of analysis and stakeholder
engagement, while also drawing upon participatory learning and action (PLA) methods as appropriate,
thus avoiding conventional “extractive” forms of social research. It must be designed to be applicable in
any country worldwide with a significant share of emissions stemming from the AFOLU sector, while
also reflecting the current experiences prevalent in LAC. The selected firm will be tasked with leveraging
its experience in effectively managing such dimensions, ensuring practicality and adaptability across
various contexts and stakeholder requirements within LAC and beyond.

The assessment tool should be able to:

 Identify and quantify the impacts from climate change, vulnerability analyses, land uses, change in
pesticide uses, recovery of natural areas, and changes in prices, and the measures designed to respond
to climate change on the poor and vulnerable populations involved in AFOLU activities.
 Identify, define and map different stakeholders in the sector, those most impacted and those working
in the AFOLU sector in general.
 Help understand the social and distributional impacts of JET pathways, transition policies, projects
and activities, with a focus on the risks, impacts and opportunities for the most transition-affected
and vulnerable communities, and modeling different scenarios.
 Generate recommendations for alternative measures—with an emphasis on policies—that could
facilitate JET for those same populations.
 Provide recommendations around the process on how to ensure a transition process is just and
equitable.
 Engage transition-affected communities in decision-making around JET pathways, which would
include building awareness on risks, impacts, trade-offs, etc. and capacity building to partner or
otherwise engage in decision-making processes.

The assessment tool could be used in relation to:

 Strategic decision-making: The tool’s comprehensive analysis and multidimensional approach would
guide the World Bank’s strategic decision-making process regarding interventions in the AFOLU
sector. It would help prioritize initiatives that align with the Bank’s overarching goals of poverty
reduction, environmental protection, and inclusive development on a livable planet.
 Project design and planning: When designing projects or programs related to the AFOLU sector in
LAC, the World Bank could use the JET assessment tool to ensure that social equity, environmental
sustainability, and economic viability are integrated into the project’s objectives and strategies. The
tool would guide the Bank in identifying key stakeholders, vulnerability indicators, social and
environmental impact assessments, understanding local contexts, and developing tailored transition
strategies.
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 Policy formulation and advocacy: The World Bank could leverage the findings and insights from the
JET assessment tool to advocate for policy changes that promote just and equitable transitions within
the AFOLU sector. The tool’s recommendations and evidence-based analysis could help strengthen
the case for policy reforms at national, regional, and local levels.
 Resource allocation and financing: The World Bank could use the assessment tool to inform resource
allocation decisions by identifying priority areas for investment, potential funding sources, and
mechanisms for financing just and equitable transitions within the AFOLU sector.
 Risk management and adaptation: The JET assessment tool could help the World Bank identify
potential challenges and vulnerabilities associated with the transition process. This information
would enable the Bank to develop adaptive strategies that enhance the resilience of AFOLU systems
to various shocks and uncertainties.
 Capacity building and technical assistance: The tool could be utilized to provide technical assistance
to governments, institutions, and communities in LAC. This might involve training meetings,
knowledge-sharing events, and the dissemination of best practices for implementing sustainable
AFOLU practices.

3. Scope of Work and Main Responsibilities

Objectives

1. Development of an assessment tool for JET opportunities in relation to climate change mitigation
and adaptation-oriented activities in the AFOLU sector, with a focus on LAC.

The assessment tool will be developed and presented in at least two iterations, to allow for a peer
review process in between, in accordance with World Bank quality review procedures. This
development should go beyond a simple desk exercise and include the organization of stakeholder
meetings and consultations, as appropriate. The tool should take into account the complexity and
diversity of the region and the sector, while also being suitable for application at the country level.
Here are some elements that such a tool might include:

 Overview: The tool should begin with an assessment of the social, political, economic, cultural
and environmental factors relating to the AFOLU sector in the country or jurisdiction in question,
as well as an analysis of the key drivers and challenges facing the sector.
 Stakeholder analysis: The tool should identify and analyze the different stakeholders involved
in the AFOLU sector, including farmers, indigenous communities, local NGOs, government
agencies, and international organizations. This might involve a mapping exercise to identify the
roles, interests, and power dynamics among stakeholders. This should also include assessing the
level of exposure of people to climate change impacts, explaining their vulnerability to non-
inclusive climate change strategies, and highlighting their insights in shaping just and equitable
transition strategies. Furthermore, a capacity analysis will help draw up stakeholder engagement
strategies and training needs.
 Methodology: The tool should detail the step-by-step approach for conducting the JET
assessment in the country or jurisdiction in question. It should describe the combination of
qualitative and quantitative methods, data sources, and stakeholder engagement strategies.
 JET assessment framework: The tool should define a framework that integrates the various
criteria and key indicators that will be used to assess JET opportunities, including economic,

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 social, cultural, environmental, and governance factors. This could be a matrix and/or a visual
representation that allows for a holistic evaluation. The framework should integrate the criteria
and indicators, offer a clear structure for evaluation, and include guidelines on assigning weights
or importance to different criteria based on the context.
 Data collection and analysis: The tool should outline the data collection process, specifying the
types of data required for each criterion, and describe the process of data analysis, including how
qualitative and quantitative data will be synthesized.
 Social and environmental impact assessment: The tool should assess the potential social and
environmental impacts of the identified opportunities, including impacts on biodiversity,
ecosystem services, socioeconomic equity, and cultural values. This might involve developing
indicators and targets to measure progress and track impacts over time, and in the case of
investment projects, should consider synergies with the assessments that would be required under
the relevant Standards of the Environmental and Social Framework (ESF).
 Participatory mechanisms: The tool should identify opportunities for collaboration among
stakeholders and meaningful participation, to ensure that the identified opportunities are pursued
in an equitable and inclusive manner. This might include developing mechanisms for stakeholder
engagement, capacity building, and benefit sharing.
 Monitoring and evaluation: The tool should include mechanisms for monitoring and evaluating
progress towards just and equitable transitions in the AFOLU sector in LAC. This might involve
developing a set of indicators and targets to measure progress, establishing monitoring
mechanisms, and conducting regular reviews and evaluations of progress.

2. Production of guidelines for the piloting of the assessment tool in the Latin America & Caribbean
region (LAC).

The final assessment tool will be accompanied by guidelines for its piloting within LAC, to
consist of the following:

 A description of the objectives, scope, timeline, roles and responsibilities, and budget for the
piloting.
 Specification of the criteria to be used in selection of interventions and/or policies to use as pilots.
This will require a needs assessment to understand the key challenges, opportunities, and
priorities related to AFOLU transitions in different countries and sectors.
 Identification of relevant stakeholders for the piloting, including government agencies, local
communities, civil society organizations, research institutions, private sector actors, and
development partners.
 Recommendations of specific interventions and/or policies to use for the piloting.
 A description of any associated capacity building and training activities that could be needed.

4. Deliverables for Specific Activities

1. Inception Report: This should include, at a minimum: i) Findings from a review of best
practices, case studies, and existing tools related to Just and Equitable Transitions (JET) in the
Agriculture, Forestry, and Other Land Use (AFOLU) sector in the Latin America & Caribbean
region (LAC); ii) a description of the methodology to be used for the assessment of opportunities
for JET in the AFOLU sector in LAC; iii) a stakeholder engagement plan, detailing strategies for

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 workshops, interviews, and feedback sessions; and iv) a framework document defining the JET
indicators agreed upon with stakeholders. This framework will cover ecological, social,
economic, and cultural dimensions to measure the justice, equity, and inclusion aspects of
AFOLU transitions.

2. Draft Assessment Tool: The development of a user-friendly and intuitive assessment tool
prototype, including its format, methodology for data collection and organization, designed for
use by a broad range of stakeholders. The draft should be acceptable for a Bank-based peer review
process, consisting of a range of experts on the topics covered.

3. Finalized Assessment Tool: A second assessment tool prototype, finalized based on the outputs
of the peer review, as well as any additional stakeholder inputs and feedback.

4. Assessment Tool Piloting Guidelines: A detailed roadmap for the pilot testing of the tool in
selected interventions and/or policies.

5. Expectations of the Contracted Firm

Responsibilities of the Contracted Firm:
The selected firm will have the overall responsibility for managing all the logistical aspects necessary
for the effective execution of the project.

 Coordination of Travel4 and Logistics (as necessary): The firm will be responsible for planning
and organizing all necessary travel, including ground and air transportation, for project staff and
participants of trainings and meetings.
 Manage and coordinate any other logistical requirement (as necessary): Includes renting
venues for meetings, audio and video equipment, and catering if necessary.
 Liaising with Non-Governmental Entities: The firm will act as the main point of contact between
the project and the involved non-governmental entities.
 Coordination of communications and logistics for all meetings, workshops, and activities
involving these entities. It will ensure that all stakeholders are properly informed about the
schedules, locations, and agendas of the scheduled events and activities.
 Management of Resources and Suppliers: It will be responsible for hiring and managing all
suppliers and resources necessary for the implementation of the project. It must ensure that all
contracted services meet the required quality and efficiency standards and fit within the assigned
budget.
 Proposal in English: The firm's proposal must be presented in English, including the cost per
component and final cost.

6. Deliverables and Timeline

Deliverables Timeline

1. Inception Report Month 1

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Firms have the discretion to include in their proposal to what extent travel will be necessary for the development of the
tool. This must be clearly justified.
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 2. Draft Assessment Tool Month 6

3. Final Assessment Tool Month 8

4. Assessment Tool Piloting Guidelines Month 9

7. Overall Timeframe
The consultancy will start on June 1, 2024 and run until February 28, 2025.

8. Payment Schedule

Percentage of the
Deliverables
Overall Payment

At contract signing 10%

Inception Report 20%

Draft Assessment Tool 20%

Final Assessment Tool 40%

Assessment Tool Piloting Guidelines 10%

9. Supervision and Reporting

During the assignment period, the selected consulting firm will report to Kennan Rapp and Rosa Maria
Martinez, Task Team Leaders and Co-Coordinators of the Social Dimensions of Climate Change agenda
in LAC for the World Bank. This contract is subject to the World Bank’s international hiring conditions.
The final payment for this consultancy is subject to final approval by the Task Team Leaders of the
Deliverables under this contract.

Report(s), audiovisual products, and any other work developed by the contractor are specifically and
exclusively for the World Bank, including all written, graphic, audio, visual, and any other production
elements contained therein, whether on paper, disk, tape, digital file, or other media. The World Bank is
the sole owner of the service(s) provided from the moment of their creation and possesses all rights,
titles, and interests worldwide, including, but not limited to, copyrights and all related rights. Any written
products produced may not be published or shared without the express authorization of the World Bank.