Subject: Probability of Simple Events

Grade Level: Grade 8

Objective:
1. Find the probability of a simple event
2. Illustrate an experimental probability and a theoretical probability
3. Solve problems involving probabilities of simple events

Learning within the curriculum:

1. In a previous lesson, students learned about fractions and percentages, which are
essential for understanding probability calculations. The concept of probability builds
on these mathematical foundations, allowing students to apply their knowledge of
fractions when determining the likelihood of events.
2. Students also studied basic statistics, including mean, median, and mode.
Understanding these statistical concepts helps students grasp the significance of
probability in real-world contexts, such as predicting outcomes based on data.

Learning across the curriculum:

1. In Science, students might explore concepts related to genetics, particularly
Punnett squares, which illustrate the probability of inheriting traits. This connection
helps students understand how probability is not just a mathematical concept but
also a fundamental principle in biological sciences.
2. In Social Studies, students can analyze historical events and decisions that were
based on probabilities, such as voting outcomes or economic forecasts. This
interdisciplinary approach shows students how probability influences various aspects
of society.

Elicit:
Teaching Strategy: Cooperative Learning
Instructional Materials: None required
Anecdote 1: Imagine a local basketball game where everyone bets on which team
will win. Some people rely on their knowledge of the teams’ past performances, while
others just choose their favorite team. This scenario illustrates how we often make
decisions based on probability, even in everyday situations.
Anecdote 2: Consider the tradition of making wishes when blowing out birthday
candles. Many people believe that if they wish for something while blowing out the
candles, there’s a chance it will come true. This reflects the idea of probability, as
some may believe there’s a higher chance of their wish coming true if they’re very
specific about it.

Engage:
Teaching Strategy: Interactive Learning
Instructional Materials: None required
Energizer 1: "Probability Line-Up" - Students line up according to how likely they
think various scenarios will occur (e.g., it will rain tomorrow, I will win the lottery).
After they line up, discuss their reasoning as a class.
Energizer 2: "Coin Toss Challenge" - Students will toss a coin multiple times and
record the results. They will then predict the outcome of their next toss based on
their previous results. This activity is inclusive as it requires no materials.

Explore:

Activities
Activity 1: Coin Toss Experiment
Teaching Strategy: Inquiry-Based Learning
Materials: Coins, recording sheets
Significance: This activity allows students to collect data and analyze the
experimental probability of getting heads or tails.

Instructions:
1. Each student will toss a coin 30 times and record the results (heads or tails).
2. After the experiment, students will calculate the experimental probability of getting
heads and tails.
3. Students will compare their results with the theoretical probability of 0.5 for each
outcome.

Rubrics:
- Data Collection (30 tosses): 10 pts.
- Accuracy of Probability Calculation: 10 pts.
- Clarity of Presentation: 5 pts.

Assessment Questions:
1. What was the experimental probability of getting heads?
2. How does your experimental probability compare to the theoretical probability?
3. What factors might have influenced your results?
Activity 2: Probability in Real Life
Teaching Strategy: Project-Based Learning
Materials: Chart paper, markers
Significance: Students will explore real-life situations where probability plays a
crucial role, enhancing their understanding of its practical applications.

Instructions:
1. In groups, students will choose a real-life scenario (e.g., weather forecasts, sports
statistics) where probability is applied.
2. They will research their chosen scenario and create a presentation to explain how
probability affects outcomes.
3. Groups will present their findings to the class and discuss the implications of
probability in their scenarios.

Rubrics:
- Depth of Research: 10 pts.
- Presentation Clarity: 10 pts.
- Group Collaboration: 5 pts.

Assessment Questions:
1. What real-life scenario did your group choose, and why?
2. How does probability influence the outcomes in your scenario?
3. What was the most surprising thing you learned about probability during this
activity?

Explain:
Activity 1 - The main point of probability is to quantify the likelihood of events
occurring, allowing us to make informed decisions based on statistical reasoning.
Understanding both experimental and theoretical probabilities enables students to
analyze data effectively and recognize patterns in outcomes.
Activity 2 - Theoretical probability is defined as the expected outcome based on
known possible results, while experimental probability is derived from actual
experiments or trials. Recognizing these differences helps students appreciate the
role of real-world data in probability assessments.

Elaborate:
Teaching Strategy: Problem-Based Learning
1. Task: Students will create a simple game that incorporates probability, such as a
spinner or dice game. They will outline the rules and calculate the probabilities of
various outcomes.
2. Task: Students will conduct a survey on a topic of their choice (e.g., favorite
snacks) and analyze the probabilities of selecting each option based on their data.
Discussion: Students will share their findings and discuss how understanding
probability can help in making predictions and decisions in everyday life.

Evaluate:
Teaching Strategy: Think-Pair-Share

Questions:
1. What is the difference between experimental and theoretical probability?
2. How can you use probability in decision-making?
3. Give an example of a situation where you would need to calculate probability.

For Higher Order Thinking Skills:

Questions:
1. How would you explain the importance of probability to someone who has never
studied it?
2. In what ways can probability be misleading?
3. How can understanding probability help in risk assessment?

Answers:
1. Probability helps quantify uncertainty and allows for informed decision-making by
evaluating possible outcomes.
2. Probability can be misleading if data is misrepresented or if the sample size is too
small, leading to inaccurate conclusions.
3. Understanding probability aids in evaluating the likelihood of adverse events,
enabling better preparation and response strategies.

Extend:
Teaching Strategy: Contextualized Teaching and Learning
Instructional Materials: None required
Usecase 1: Students could analyze the probability of different outcomes in local
sports events, applying their knowledge to make predictions about future games
based on team performance statistics. This real-world application reinforces their
learning while engaging with their community.
Usecase 2: Students can consider the probability of various weather conditions
affecting agricultural practices in their area. This understanding can lead them to
explore how farmers use probability to make planting decisions, connecting
classroom learning to local livelihoods.

Assignment:
1. Write a short report on a real-world application of probability, such as in sports,
weather forecasting, or business. Include examples of how probability is used in that
context and its significance. This assignment encourages students to research and
apply their understanding of probability outside the classroom.