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MULTILEVEL
ANALYSIS
 2nd Edition

MULTILEVEL
ANALYSIS
An
Introduction to
Basic and Advanced
Multilevel Modeling

Tom A B SNIJDERS
Roel J BOSKER
© Tom A B Snijders and Roel J Bosker 2012

First edition published 1999

Reprinted 2002, 2003, 2004

Apart from any fair dealing for the purposes of research or private study, or criticism or review, as
permitted under the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act, 1988, this publication may be reproduced,
stored or transmitted in any form, or by any means, only with the prior permission in writing of the
publishers, or in the case of reprographic reproduction, in accordance with the terms of licences
issued by the Copyright Licensing Agency. Enquiries concerning reproduction outside those terms
should be sent to the publishers.

SAGE Publications Ltd

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London EC1Y 1SP

SAGE Publications Inc.

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Library of Congress Control Number: 2011926498

British Library Cataloguing in Publication data

A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library

ISBN 978-1-84920-200-8
ISBN 978-1-84920-201-5

Typeset by C&M Digitals (P) Ltd, Chennai, India

Printed by MPG Books Group, Bodmin, Cornwall
Printed on paper from sustainable resources
Contents

Preface to the Second Edition

Preface to the First Edition

1 Introduction
1.1 Multilevel analysis
1.1.1 Probability models
1.2 This book
1.2.1 Prerequisites
1.2.2 Notation

2 Multilevel Theories, Multistage Sampling, and Multilevel Models

2.1 Dependence as a nuisance
2.2 Dependence as an interesting phenomenon
2.3 Macro-level, micro-level, and cross-level relations
2.4 Glommary

3 Statistical Treatment of Clustered Data

3.1 Aggregation
3.2 Disaggregation
3.3 The intraclass correlation
3.3.1 Within-group and between-group variance
3.3.2 Testing for group differences
3.4 Design effects in two-stage samples
3.5 Reliability of aggregated variables
3.6 Within- and between-group relations
3.6.1 Regressions
 3.6.2 Correlations
3.6.3 Estimation of within- and between-group correlations
3.7 Combination of within-group evidence
3.8 Glommary

4 The Random Intercept Model

4.1 Terminology and notation
4.2 A regression model: fixed effects only
4.3 Variable intercepts: fixed or random parameters?
4.3.1 When to use random coefficient models
4.4 Definition of the random intercept model
4.5 More explanatory variables
4.6 Within- and between-group regressions
4.7 Parameter estimation
4.8 ‘Estimating’ random group effects: posterior means
4.8.1 Posterior confidence intervals
4.9 Three-level random intercept models
4.10 Glommary

5 The Hierarchical Linear Model

5.1 Random slopes
5.1.1 Heteroscedasticity
5.1.2 Do not force τ01 to be 0!
5.1.3 Interpretation of random slope variances
5.2 Explanation of random intercepts and slopes
5.2.1 Cross-level interaction effects
5.2.2 A general formulation of fixed and random parts
5.3 Specification of random slope models
5.3.1 Centering variables with random slopes?
5.4 Estimation
5.5 Three or more levels
5.6 Glommary

6 Testing and Model Specification

 6.1 Tests for fixed parameters
6.1.1 Multiparameter tests for fixed effects
6.2 Deviance tests
6.2.1 More powerful tests for variance parameters
6.3 Other tests for parameters in the random part
6.3.1 Confidence intervals for parameters in the random part
6.4 Model specification
6.4.1 Working upward from level one
6.4.2 Joint consideration of level-one and level-two variables
6.4.3 Concluding remarks on model specification
6.5 Glommary

7 How Much Does the Model Explain?

7.1 Explained variance
7.1.1 Negative values of R2?
7.1.2 Definitions of the proportion of explained variance in two-
level models
7.1.3 Explained variance in three-level models
7.1.4 Explained variance in models with random slopes
7.2 Components of variance
7.2.1 Random intercept models
7.2.2 Random slope models
7.3 Glommary

8 Heteroscedasticity
8.1 Heteroscedasticity at level one
8.1.1 Linear variance functions
8.1.2 Quadratic variance functions
8.2 Heteroscedasticity at level two
8.3 Glommary

9 Missing Data
9.1 General issues for missing data
9.1.1 Implications for design
 9.2 Missing values of the dependent variable
9.3 Full maximum likelihood
9.4 Imputation
9.4.1 The imputation method
9.4.2 Putting together the multiple results
9.5 Multiple imputations by chained equations
9.6 Choice of the imputation model
9.7 Glommary

10 Assumptions of the Hierarchical Linear Model

10.1 Assumptions of the hierarchical linear model
10.2 Following the logic of the hierarchical linear model
10.2.1 Include contextual effects
10.2.2 Check whether variables have random effects
10.2.3 Explained variance
10.3 Specification of the fixed part
10.4 Specification of the random part
10.4.1 Testing for heteroscedasticity
10.4.2 What to do in case of heteroscedasticity
10.5 Inspection of level-one residuals
10.6 Residuals at level two
10.7 Influence of level-two units
10.8 More general distributional assumptions
10.9 Glommary

11 Designing Multilevel Studies

11.1 Some introductory notes on power
11.2 Estimating a population mean
11.3 Measurement of subjects
11.4 Estimating association between variables
11.4.1 Cross-level interaction effects
11.5 Allocating treatment to groups or individuals
11.6 Exploring the variance structure
11.6.1 The intraclass correlation
 11.6.2 Variance parameters
11.7 Glommary

12 Other Methods and Models

12.1 Bayesian inference
12.2 Sandwich estimators for standard errors
12.3 Latent class models
12.4 Glommary

13 Imperfect Hierarchies
13.1 A two-level model with a crossed random factor
13.2 Crossed random effects in three-level models
13.3 Multiple membership models
13.4 Multiple membership multiple classification models
13.5 Glommary

14 Survey Weights
14.1 Model-based and design-based inference
14.1.1 Descriptive and analytic use of surveys
14.2 Two kinds of weights
14.3 Choosing between model-based and design-based analysis
14.3.1 Inclusion probabilities and two-level weights
14.3.2 Exploring the informativeness of the sampling design
14.4 Example: Metacognitive strategies as measured in the PISA study
14.4.1 Sampling design
14.4.2 Model-based analysis of data divided into parts
14.4.3 Inclusion of weights in the model
14.5 How to assign weights in multilevel models
14.6 Appendix. Matrix expressions for the single-level estimators
14.7 Glommary

15 Longitudinal Data
15.1 Fixed occasions
15.1.1 The compound symmetry model
15.1.2 Random slopes
 15.1.3 The fully multivariate model
15.1.4 Multivariate regression analysis
15.1.5 Explained variance
15.2 Variable occasion designs
15.2.1 Populations of curves
15.2.2 Random functions
15.2.3 Explaining the functions
15.2.4 Changing covariates
15.3 Autocorrelated residuals
15.4 Glommary

16 Multivariate Multilevel Models

16.1 Why analyze multiple dependent variables simultaneously?
16.2 The multivariate random intercept model
16.3 Multivariate random slope models
16.4 Glommary

17 Discrete Dependent Variables

17.1 Hierarchical generalized linear models
17.2 Introduction to multilevel logistic regression
17.2.1 Heterogeneous proportions
17.2.2 The logit function: Log-odds
17.2.3 The empty model
17.2.4 The random intercept model
17.2.5 Estimation
17.2.6 Aggregation
17.3 Further topics on multilevel logistic regression
17.3.1 Random slope model
17.3.2 Representation as a threshold model
17.3.3 Residual intraclass correlation coefficient
17.3.4 Explained variance
17.3.5 Consequences of adding effects to the model
17.4 Ordered categorical variables
 17.5 Multilevel event history analysis
17.6 Multilevel Poisson regression
17.7 Glommary

18 Software
18.1 Special software for multilevel modeling
18.1.1 HLM
18.1.2 MLwiN
18.1.3 The MIXOR suite and SuperMix
18.2 Modules in general-purpose software packages
18.2.1 SAS procedures VARCOMP, MIXED, GLIMMIX, and
NLMIXED
18.2.2 R
18.2.3 Stata
18.2.4 SPSS, commands VARCOMP and MIXED
18.3 Other multilevel software
18.3.1 PinT
18.3.2 Optimal Design
18.3.3 MLPowSim
18.3.4 Mplus
18.3.5 Latent Gold
18.3.6 REALCOM
18.3.7 WinBUGS

References

Index
Preface to the Second Edition

Multilevel analysis is a domain of data analysis that has been developing

strongly before as well as after the publication of the first edition of our
book in 1999. This second edition has been seriously revised. It contains
more material, it has been updated and corrected, and a number of
explanations were clarified.
The main new material is in three new chapters. A chapter was added
about missing data, and another about the use of multilevel modeling for
surveys with nonconstant inclusion probabilities (‘survey weights’). Also a
chapter was added in which three special techniques are briefly treated:
Bayesian estimation, cluster-robust standard errors (the socalled sandwich
standard error), and latent class models. The topics of these new chapters all
belong to the ‘advanced’ part of the title. Among what was not covered in
the first edition, these are some of the topics which we believe are most
frequently encountered in the practice of multilevel research.
New material has been added also to existing chapters. The main
example (starting in Chapter 4) has been renewed because the treatment of
missing data in the old version was inadequate. Various other new examples
also have been added. Further, there now is a more elaborate treatment of
the combination of within-group evidence without using full-blown
multilevel modeling (Section 3.7); more detailed considerations are
discussed for choosing between fixed and random effects models (Section
4.3); diagnostic and comparative standard errors of posterior means are
explained (Section 4.8.1); the treatment of tests for parameters of the
random part was corrected and confidence intervals for these parameters are
discussed (Sections 6.2 and 6.3); multiple membership models are treated in
Chapter 13; and there has been an overhaul of the treatment of estimation
methods for hierarchical generalized linear models in Chapter 17. Chapter
18 about multilevel software was totally rewritten, keeping it relatively
short because this is the part of any textbook that ages most rapidly.
Throughout all chapters new developments have been mentioned, pointers
are given to the recent literature, various difficulties now are explained in
more elaborate ways, and errors have been corrected.
All chapters (from the second on) now start by an overview, and are
concluded (except for the last) by a ‘glommary’. As every reader will know
after reading this book, this is a summary of the main concepts treated in
the chapter in a form akin to a glossary. Our intention is that these new
elements will improve the didactical qualities of this textbook. Having said
this, we think that the understanding of the book, or parts of it, may be
further enhanced by going through the examples using the data that we
made available (as far as this was allowed) at http://www.stats.ox.ac.uk/
∼snijders/mlbook.htm. This website will also contain our comments on
remarks made on the book by industrious readers, as well as our corrections
for errors if any will be discovered.
We are very grateful for stimulating discussions (over the years or in the
recent period of revising the text), comments on drafts of chapters, and help
with software, to many people: Marnie Bertolet, sir David Cox, Roel de
Jong, Jon Fahlander, Mark Huisman, Johan Koskinen, Catalina Lomos,
Mayra Mascareño, Paulina Preciado, Roy Stewart, Anneke Timmermans,
and Marijtje van Duijn. For help with new data sets we are grateful to some
of these people and also to Hennie Brandsma, Simone Doolaard, Sonja
Drobnič, Anja Knuver, Hans Kuyper, Sascha Peter, Stijn Ruiter, Greetje van
der Werf, and Frank van Tubergen.

Tom Snijders
Roel Bosker
March,2011
Preface to the First Edition

This book grew out of our teaching and consultation activities in the
domain of multilevel analysis. It is intended for the absolute beginner in this
field as well as for those who have already mastered the fundamentals and
are now entering more complicated areas of application. The reader is
referred to Section 1.2 for an overview of this book and for some reading
guidelines.
We are grateful to various people from whom we got reactions on
earlier parts of this manuscript and also to the students who were exposed to
it and helped us realize what was unclear. We received useful comments
from, and benefited from discussions about parts of the manuscript with,
among others, Joerg Blasius, Marijtje van Duijn, Wolfgang Langer, Ralf
Maslowski, and Ian Plewis. Moreover we would like to thank Hennie
Brandsma, Mieke Brekelmans, Jan van Damme, Hetty Dekkers, Miranda
Lubbers, Lyset Rekers-Mombarg and Jan Maarten Wit, Carolina de Weerth,
Beate Völker, Ger van der Werf, and the Zentral Archiv (Cologne) who
kindly permitted us to use data from their respective research projects as
illustrative material for this book. We would also like to thank Annelies
Verstappen-Remmers for her unfailing secretarial assistance.

Tom Snijders
Roel Bosker
June, 1999
 1
Introduction

1.1 Multilevel analysis

Multilevel analysis is a methodology for the analysis of data with complex
patterns of variability, with a focus on nested sources of such variability –
pupils in classes, employees in firms, suspects tried by judges in courts,
animals in litters, longitudinal measurements of subjects, etc. In the analysis
of such data, it is usually illuminating to take account of the fact that each
level of nesting is associated with variability that has a distinct
interpretation. There is variability, for example, between pupils but also
between classes, and one may draw incorrect conclusions if no distinction is
made between these different sources of variability. Multilevel analysis is
an approach to the analysis of such data, including the statistical techniques
as well as the methodology for their use. The term ‘multilevel analysis’ is
used mainly in the social sciences (in the wide sense: sociology, education,
psychology, economics, criminology, etc.), but also in other fields such as
the biomedical sciences. Our focus will be on the social sciences. Other
terms, referring to the technical aspects, are hierarchical linear models,
mixed models, and random coefficient models.
In its present form, multilevel analysis is a stream which has two
tributaries: contextual analysis and mixed effects models. Contextual
analysis is a development in the social sciences which has focused on the
effects of the social context on individual behavior. Some landmarks before
1980 are the paper by Robinson (1950) which discussed the ecological
fallacy (which refers to confusion between aggregate and individual
effects), the paper by Davis et al. (1961) on the distinction between within-
group and between-group regression, the volume edited by Dogan and
Rokkan (1969), and the paper by Burstein et al. (1978) on treating
regression intercepts and slopes on one level as outcomes on the higher
level.
Mixed effects models are statistical models in the analysis of variance
(ANOVA) and in regression analysis where it is assumed that some of the
coefficients are fixed and others are random. This subject is too vast even to
mention some landmarks. A standard reference book on random effects
models and mixed effects models is Searle et al. (1992), Chapter 2 of which
gives an extensive historical overview. The name ‘mixed model’ seems to
have been used first by Eisenhart (1947).
Contextual modeling until about 1980 focused on the definition of
appropriate variables to be used in ordinary least squares regression
analysis. Until the 1980s the main focus in the development of statistical
procedures for mixed models was on random effects (i.e., random
differences between categories in some classification system) more than on
random coefficients (i.e., random effects of numerical variables). Multilevel
analysis as we now know it was formed by these two streams coming
together. It was realized that, in contextual modeling, the individual and the
context are distinct sources of variability, which should both be modeled as
random influences. On the other hand, statistical methods and algorithms
were developed that allowed the practical use of regression-type models
with nested random coefficients. There was a cascade of statistical papers:
Aitkin et al. (1981), Laird and Ware (1982), Mason et al. (1983), Goldstein
(1986), Aitkin and Longford (1986), Raudenbush and Bryk (1986), de
Leeuw and Kreft (1986), and Longford (1987) proposed and developed
techniques for calculating estimates for mixed models with nested
coefficients. These techniques, together with the programs implementing
them which were developed by a number of these researchers or under their
supervision, allowed the practical use of models of which until that moment
only special cases were accessible for practical use. By 1986 the basis of
multilevel analysis was established. The first textbook appeared (by
Goldstein, now in its fourth edition) and was followed by a few others in
the 1990s and many more in the 2000s. The methodology has been further
elaborated since then, and has proved to be quite fruitful in applications in
many fields. On the organizational side, there are stimulating centers such
as the ‘Multilevel Models Project’ in Bristol with its Newsletter and its
website http://www.mlwin.com/, and there is an active internet discussion
group at http://www.jiscmail.ac.uk/lists/multilevel.html.
In the biomedical sciences mixed models were proposed especially for
longitudinal data; in economics mainly for panel data (Swamy, 1971), the
most common longitudinal data in economics. One of the issues treated in
the economics literature was the pooling of cross-sectional and time series
data (e.g., Maddala, 1971; Hausman and Taylor, 1981), which is closely
related to the difference between within-group and between-group
regressions. Overviews are given by Chow (1984) and Baltagi (2008).
A more elaborate history of multilevel analysis is presented in the
bibliographical sections of Longford (1993) and in Kreft and de Leeuw
(1998). For an extensive bibliography of the older literature, see HÜttner
and van den Eeden (1995). A more recent overview of much statistical
work in this area can be found in the handbook by de Leeuw and Meijer
(2008a).

1.1.1 Probability models

The main statistical model of multilevel analysis is the hierarchical linear
model, an extension of multiple linear regression to a model that includes
nested random coefficients. This model is explained in Chapter 5 and forms
the basis of most of this book.
There are several ways to argue why it makes sense to use a probability
model for data analysis. In sampling theory a distinction is made between
design-based inference and model-based inference. This is discussed further
in Chapter 14. The former means that the researcher draws a probability
sample from some finite population, and wishes to make inferences from
the sample to this finite population. The probability model then follows
from how the sample is drawn by the researcher. Model-based inference
means that the researcher postulates a probability model, usually aiming at
inference to some large and sometimes hypothetical population such as all
English primary school pupils in the 2000s or all human adults living in a
present-day industrialized culture. If the probability model is adequate then
so are the inferences based on it, but checking this adequacy is possible
only to a limited extent.
It is possible to apply model-based inference to data collected by
investigating some entire research population, such as all 12-year-old pupils
in Amsterdam at a given moment. Sometimes the question arises as to why
one should use a probability model if no sample is drawn but an entire
population is observed. Using a probability model that assumes statistical
variability, even though an entire research population was investigated, can
be justified by realizing that conclusions are sought which apply not only to
the investigated research population but also to a wider population. The
investigated research population is assumed to be representative of this
wider population – for pupils who are older or younger, in other towns,
perhaps in other countries. This is called a superpopulation in Chapter 14,
where the relation between model-based and design-based inference is
further discussed. Applicability of the statistical inference to such a wider
population is not automatic, but has to be carefully argued by considering
whether indeed the research population may be considered to be
representative of the larger (often vaguely outlined) population. This is the
‘second span of the bridge of statistical inference’ as discussed by Cornfield
and Tukey (1956).1 The inference then is not primarily about a given
delimited set of individuals but about social, behavioral, biological, etc.,
mechanisms and processes. The random effects, or residuals, playing a role
in such probability models can be regarded as resulting from the factors that
are not included in the explanatory variables used. They reflect the
approximative nature of the model used. The model-based inference will be
adequate to the extent that the assumptions of the probability model are an
adequate reflection of the effects that are not explicitly included by means
of observed variables.
As we shall see in Chapters 3–5, the basic idea of multilevel analysis is
that data sets with a nesting structure that includes unexplained variability
at each level of nesting, such as pupils in classes or employees in firms, are
usually not adequately represented by the probability model of multiple
linear regression analysis, but are often adequately represented by the
hierarchical linear model. Thus, the use of the hierarchical linear model in
multilevel analysis is in the tradition of model-based inference.

1.2 This book

This book is intended as an introductory textbook and as a reference book
for practical users of multilevel analysis. We have tried to include all the
main points that come up when applying multilevel analysis. Most of the
data sets used in the examples, and corresponding commands to run the
examples in various computer programs (see Chapter 18), are available on
the website http://www.stats.ox.ac.uk/~snijders/mlbook.htm.
After this introductory chapter, the book proceeds with a conceptual
chapter about multilevel questions and a chapter on ways to treat multilevel
data that are not based on the hierarchical linear model. Chapters 4–6 treat
the basic conceptual ideas of the hierarchical linear model, and how to work
with it in practice. Chapter 4 introduces the random intercept model as the
primary example of the hierarchical linear model. This is extended in
Chapter 5 to random slope models. Chapters 4 and 5 focus on
understanding the hierarchical linear model and its parameters, paying only
very limited attention to procedures and algorithms for parameter
estimation (estimation being work that most researchers delegate to the
computer). Chapter 6 is concerned with testing parameters and specifying a
multilevel model.
An introductory course on multilevel analysis could cover Chapters 1–6
and Section 7.1, with selected material from other chapters. A minimal
course would focus on Chapters 4–6. The later chapters cover topics that
are more specialized or more advanced, but important in the practice of
multilevel analysis.
The text of this book is not based on a particular computer program for
multilevel analysis. The last chapter, 18, gives a brief review of computer
programs that can be used for multilevel analysis.
Chapters 7 (on the explanatory power of the model) and 10 (on model
assumptions) are important for the interpretation of the results of statistical
analyses using the hierarchical linear model. Researchers who have data
sets with many missing values, or who plan to collect data sets that may run
this type of risk, will profit from reading Chapter 9. Chapter 11 helps the
researcher in setting up a multilevel study, and in choosing sample sizes at
the various levels.
Some multilevel data sets come from surveys done according to a
complex design, associated with survey weights reflecting the
undersampling and oversampling of parts of the population. Ways to
analyze such data sets using the hierarchical linear model are covered in
Chapter 14.
 Several methods and models have been developed that can sometimes
be useful as additions or alternatives to the more commonly used methods
for the hierarchical linear model. Chapter 12 briefly presents three of these:
Bayesian procedures, the sandwich estimator for standard errors, and latent
class models.
Chapters 8 and 13–17 treat various extensions of the basic hierarchical
linear model that are useful in practical research. The topic of Chapter 8,
heteroscedasticity (nonconstant residual variances), may seem rather
specialized. Modeling heteroscedasticity, however, is easily done within the
hierarchical linear model and can be very useful. It also allows model
checks and model modifications that are used in Chapter 10. Chapter 13
treats data structures where the different sources of variability, the ‘levels’
of the multilevel analysis, are not nested but related in different ways:
crossed classifications and multiple memberships. Chapter 15 is about
longitudinal data, with a fixed occasion design (i.e., repeated measures
data) as well as those with a variable occasion design, where the time
moments of measurement may differ arbitrarily between subjects. This
chapter indicates how the flexibility of the multilevel model gives important
opportunities for data analysis (e.g., for incomplete multivariate or
longitudinal data) that were unavailable earlier. Chapter 16 is about
multilevel analysis for multivariate dependent variables. Chapter 17
describes the multilevel modeling of dichotomous, ordinal, and frequency
data.
Each chapter starts with an overview and finishes with a summarizing
glossary, which we have called a glommary. The glommaries can be
consulted to gain rapid overviews of what is treated in the various chapters.
If additional textbooks are sought, one could consider the excellent
introductions by Hox (2010) and Gelman and Hill (2007); Raudenbush and
Bryk (2002), for an elaborate treatment of the hierarchical linear model;
Longford (1993), Goldstein (2011), Demidenko (2004), and de Leeuw and
Meijer (2008a) for more detailed mathematical background; and Skrondal
and Rabe-Hesketh (2004) for further modeling, especially latent variable
models.

1.2.1 Prerequisites
In order to read this textbook, a good working knowledge of statistics is
required. It is assumed that you know the concepts of probability, random
variable, probability distribution, population, sample, statistical
independence, expectation (population mean), variance, covariance,
correlation, standard deviation, and standard error. Furthermore, it is
assumed that you know the basics of hypothesis testing and multiple
regression analysis, and that you can understand formulas of the kind that
occur in the explanation of regression analysis.
Matrix notation is used only in a few more advanced sections. These
sections can be skipped without loss of understanding of other parts of the
book.

1.2.2 Notation
The main notational conventions are as follows. Abstract variables and
random variables are denoted by italicized capital letters, such as X or Y.
Outcomes of random variables and other fixed values are denoted by
italicized lower-case letters, such as x or z. Thus we speak about the
variable X, but in formulas where the value of this variable is considered as
a fixed, nonrandom value, it will be denoted by x. There are some
exceptions to this, for example in Chapter 2 and in the use of the letter N for
the number of groups (‘level-two units’) in the data.
The letter ε is used to denote the expected value, or population average,
of a random variable. Thus, εY and ε(Y) denote the expected value of Y. For
example, if Pn is the fraction of tails obtained in n coin flips, and the coin is
fair, then the expected value is
Statistical parameters are indicated by Greek letters. Examples are μ, σ2,
and β. The following Greek letters are used.

α alpha
β beta
γ gamma
δ delta
η eta
θ theta
λ lambda
 μ mu
π pi
ρ rho
σ sigma
τ tau
φ phi
χ chi
ω omega
∆ capital Delta
Σ capital Sigma
τ capital Tau
χ capital Chi

1
We are indebted to Ivo Molenaar for this reference.
 2
Multilevel Theories, Multistage
Sampling, and Multilevel Models

Phenomena and data sets in the social sciences often have a multilevel
structure. This may be reflected in the design of data collection: simple
random sampling is often not a very cost-efficient strategy, and multistage
samples may be more efficient instead. This chapter is concerned with the
reasons why it is important to take account of the clustering of the data, also
called their multilevel structure, in the data analysis phase.

OVERVIEW OF THE CHAPTER

First we discuss how methods of inference failing to take into account the
multilevel data structure may lead to erroneous conclusions, because
independence assumptions are likely to be violated. The next two sections
sketch the reasons for interest in a multilevel approach from the
applications point of view. In many cases the multilevel data structure
reflects essential aspects of the social (biological, etc.) world, and important
research questions can be formulated about relations between variables at
different layers in a hierarchical system. In this case the dependency of
observations within clusters is of focal interest, because it reflects the fact
that clusters differ in certain respects. In either case, the use of single-level
statistical models is no longer valid. The fallacies to which their use can
lead are described in the next chapter.

2.1 Dependence as a nuisance

Textbooks on statistics tell us that observations should be sampled
independently of each other as standard. Thus the standard sampling design
on which statistical models are based is simple random sampling with
replacement from an infinite population: the result of one selection is
independent of the result of any other selection, and all single units in the
population have the same chances of being selected into the sample.
Textbooks on sampling, however, make it clear that there are more cost-
efficient sampling designs, based on the idea that probabilities of selection
should be known but do not have to be constant. One of those cost-efficient
sampling designs is the multistage sample: the population of interest
consists of subpopulations, also called clusters, and selection takes place
via those subpopulations.
If there is only one subpopulation level, the design is a two-stage
sample. Pupils, for instance, are grouped in schools, so the population of
pupils consists of subpopulations of schools that contain pupils. Other
examples are: families in neighborhoods, teeth in jawbones, animals in
litters, employees in firms, and children in families. In a random two-stage
sample, a random sample of the primary units (schools, neighborhoods,
jawbones, litters, firms, families) is taken in the first stage, and then the
secondary units (pupils, families, teeth, animals, employees, children) are
sampled at random from the selected primary units in the second stage. A
common mistake in research is to ignore the fact that the sampling scheme
was a two-stage one, and to pretend that the secondary units were selected
independently. The mistake in this case would be that the researcher is
overlooking the fact that the secondary units were not sampled
independently of each other: having selected a primary unit (e.g., a school)
increases the chances of selection of secondary units (e.g., pupils) from that
primary unit. In other words, the multistage sampling design leads to
dependent observations, and failing to deal with this properly in the
statistical analysis may lead to erroneous inferences. An example of the
grossly inflated type I error rates that may then occur is given by Dorman
(2008).
The multistage sampling design can be depicted graphically as in Figure
2.1. This shows a population that consists of 10 subpopulations, each
containing 10 micro-units. A sample of 25% is taken by randomly selecting
5 out of 10 subpopulations and within these – again at random of course – 5
out of 10 micro-units.
 Figure 2.1: Multistage sample.

Multistage samples are preferred in practice, because the costs of

interviewing or testing persons are reduced enormously if these persons are
geographically or organizationally grouped. Such sample designs
correspond to the organization of the social world. It is cheaper to travel to
100 neighbourhoods and interview 10 persons per neighbourhood on their
political preferences than to travel to 1,000 neighbourhoods and interview
one person per neighbourhood. In the next chapters we will see how we can
make adjustments to deal with these dependencies.

2.2 Dependence as an interesting phenomenon

The previous section implies that, if we want to make inferences on, for
example, the earnings of employees in the for-profit sector, it is cost-
efficient to use a multistage sampling design in which employees are
selected via the firms in which they work. A common feature in social
research, however, is that in many cases we wish to make inferences on the
firms as well as on the employees. Questions that we seek to answer may
be: Do employees in multinationals earn more than employees in other
firms? Is there a relation between the performance of pupils and the
experience of their teacher? Is the sentence differential between black and
white suspects different between judges, and if so, can we find
characteristics of judges to which this sentence differential is related? In
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Red Currant and Raspberry Jelly, 46
Red Currant and White Currant Jelly, 44
Spiced Blackberry Jelly, 49
Wild Cherry Jelly, 53
Wild Grape Jelly, 55
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MARMALADES

Apple Marmalade, 23
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Orange Marmalade, 8
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MISCELLANEOUS

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Canning of Fruits, 172
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159
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Tests for Jars and Rubbers, 156
Time Table for Blanching and Sterilizing, 164-
165
Winter Jelly Making, 183

PRESERVING AND CANNING

Canned Apples, 90, 174

Canned Apples (without sugar), 92
Canned Apricots, 84, 174
Canned Asparagus, 166
Canned Beets, 166
Canned Blackberries, 76, 175
Canned Blueberries, 77, 175
Canned Blueberries (without sugar), 79
Canned Cabbage and Brussels Sprouts, 167
Canned Carrots, 167
Canned Cauliflower, 167
Canned Cherries, 75, 175
Canned Corn, 168
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Canned Currants, 175
Canned Greens, 168
Canned Lima Beans, 169
Canned Loganberries, 175
Canned Okra, 169
Canned Parsnips, 169
Canned Peaches No. 1, 80
Canned Peaches No. 2, 81
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Canned Peaches (without sugar), 82
Canned Pears, 85, 176
Canned Peas, 170
Canned Peppers, 170
Canned Pineapples No. 1, 93
Canned Pineapples No. 2, 94
Canned Pineapples—Government Recipe, 177
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Canned Plums—Government Recipe, 176
Canned Pumpkin, Winter Squash, 170
Canned Quinces, 88, 177
Canned Raspberries, 72, 175
Canned Raspberries and Currants, 74
Canned Rhubarb, 97, 177
Canned Rhubarb (without sugar), 98
Canned Salsify, 171
Canned Strawberries, 71, 178
Canned String Beans, 171
Canned Summer Squash, 171
Canned Tomatoes, 172
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Preserved Cherries, 105
Preserved Currants, 100
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Preserved Eggs, 187
Preserved Eggs—Lime Method, 190
Preserved Eggs, Use of, 190
Preserved Eggs—Water-Glass Method, 188
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Special Instructions for Canning Fruits, 174

PICKLES
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Chopped Pickles, 144
Chow Chow, 145
Cucumber Pickles, 149
Mustard Pickles No. 1, 137
Mustard Pickles No. 2, 140
Pepper Relish, 136
Piccalilli, 134
Pickled Beets, 128
Pickled Onions No. 1, 129
Pickled Onions No. 2, 131
Pickled Red Cabbage, 147
Plum Tomato Pickles, 105
Ripe Cucumber Pickles, 142
Tomato Catsup, 151
Tomatoes, 153

SPICED FRUITS

Spiced Blackberries, 125

Spiced Cherries, 116
Spiced Currants, 114
Spiced Gooseberries, 117
Spiced Grapes, 123
Spiced Peaches, 120
Spiced Pears, 119
Spiced Watermelon Rind, 122

Fruit Butters, 184

Apple Butter with Cider, 185
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Dried Peach Butter, 186
Peach Butter, 185
 Transcriber's Notes:
Obvious punctuation errors repaired.
Page 165, "145" changed to "144" (2,000 feet,
144)
Page 183, "cotten" changed to "cotton" (Put
absorbent cotton)
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