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Population

India's population is projected to surpass China's by 2023, reaching 1.5 billion by 2030 and 1.66 billion by 2050, with a significant decline in the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) below replacement level in most states. Improvements in mortality indicators have been noted, with life expectancy increasing and infant mortality rates decreasing significantly since 1947. However, challenges such as unemployment, resource depletion, and social issues persist, necessitating targeted initiatives and policies for sustainable population management.

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5 views

Population

India's population is projected to surpass China's by 2023, reaching 1.5 billion by 2030 and 1.66 billion by 2050, with a significant decline in the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) below replacement level in most states. Improvements in mortality indicators have been noted, with life expectancy increasing and infant mortality rates decreasing significantly since 1947. However, challenges such as unemployment, resource depletion, and social issues persist, necessitating targeted initiatives and policies for sustainable population management.

Uploaded by

rajbhagat
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© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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UN World Population Prospects (WPP), 2022,-India-by 2023-, surpass China-

India-17.5% of world’s population.


four times the population India had-time of Independence in 1947
reach 150 crore by 2030 and 166 crore by 2050.

Decline in India’s TFR:

2021-Total Fertility Rate (TFR) slipped below the replacement level fertility (which is 2.1]
States reached TFR-except for Bihar, UP, Jharkhand, Manipur and Meghalaya.
Improvement in Mortality Indicators: Life expectancy at birth-from 32 years in 1947 to 70 years
in 2019.
infant mortality rate -declined from 133 in 1951 -to 27 in 2020.
under-five mortality rate fell from 250 to 41,
maternal mortality ratio -from 2,000 in 1940s to 103 in 2019.

Demographic Transition Theory

first stage-high fertility and high mortality-deaths due to epidemics and variable food supply.-
Life expectancy is low
2nd stage-Fertility remains high in the beginning-declines with time-Improvements in sanitation
and health conditions
ast stage, both fertility and mortality decline-high technical know- how + deliberately control
family size.

INDIA-four distinct phases


1901-1921-stationary phase-Both birth rate and death rate-high
1921-1951-steady population growth-improvement in health and sanitation-brought down
mortality rate.
1951-1981-population explosion-Developmental activities + Increased international
migration[Tibetans, Bangladeshis, Nepalis
post 1981 till present-downward trend of crude birth rate

MALTHUS’ THEORY OF POPULATION GROWTH

world’s population -growing more rapidly than available food supply.


food supply increases in an arithmetic progression (1, 2, 3, 4, and so on),
population expands by geometric progression (1, 2, 4, 8, and so on).
could-by multiples, doubling every twenty-five years.
natural calamities-famines, earthquakes, floods,-nature’s check against the population.

Causes

high illiteracy levels,


CLIMATE-Rajasthan-low density of population -arid climate.
AVAILABILITY OF FERTILE FARMLANDS-North Indian plains
rampant child marriage,
high levels of under-five mortality rates,
low workforce participation of women,-
INDUSTRIALISATION & URBANISATION-Delhi, Mumbai, Kolkata,-high concentration of
population
lower contraceptive usage
Issues

Population Growth

Social Aspects-social crimes like robbery, beggarly, prostitution, murder, etc.

Minority-majority gapFears of supremacy over minorities


Aging population:2011, Kerala’s share-over 60 years old was 12.6%
Unemployment:disguised unemployment in rural areas
Resource Depletion:excessive resource exploitation, environmental degradation, and
deterioration.
Uneven Income Distribution:Oxfam-1% holds 40% wealth
Povertyf unemployment, unfair income distribution, and a lack of resources.
Caste politics:
interstate disparity in population distribution:
Environmental deterioration:pressure on the land,

Demographic Disaster- Pratham research-50% of fifth graders-struggle with basic addition and
subtraction

Significance of

Population Growth?

greater human capital-WPP 2022,-India-one of the largest workforces globally.


next 25 years-one in five working-age groupPratham research persons- living in India.
higher economic growth
decline in the dependency ratio (
“demographic dividend,”
development of a consumption-driven economy
For international investors, -large domestic market

Bottlenecks

Labour Force:only a fourth of women are employed.


male-dominant sex ratio-2011-943 females per 1,000 males
Hunger:
every third child below five is stunted.
Health Disease Burden:transition towards non-communicable diseases (NCDs),-more than 62%
of total deaths.

Initiatives

National Population Policy(NPP),2000


integrated service delivery for essential reproductive and child health care
Reduce infant mortality to 30 per cent
reduce birth rate to 21 per thousand by 2010

 reduce maternal mortality to 100.


 Achieving universal immunization of children against all vaccine-preventable illnesses.
 Achieving 80% of deliveries in medical facilities,

envisioned a stable population by 2045,

Prime Minister’s Appeal:population control was a form of patriotism.


Mission Parivar Vikas-in 145 high focus districts-accelerate access to high quality family
planning choices
Population Stabilization Fund (2005): autonomous body, chaired by Health Minister,
Prerna Scheme (for encouraging delayed marriage, childbirth and spacing.
Janani Suraksha Yojana- encourages institutional delivery + lowering maternal and newborn
fatalities
Integrated Child Development Scheme
Mission Parivar Vikas:increasing access to contraceptives and family planning services
National Family Planning Indemnity Scheme (NFPIS):clients are insured in the eventualities of
death, complication and failure following sterilization.

1. Santushti Scheme (Public Private Partnership for sterilization services)

Compensation scheme for Sterilization Acceptors:compensation for loss of wages to beneficiary


and service provider (& team) for conducting sterilizations

Way Forward

 Focus on Elderly Population:expected to be 12% by 2050.


Bridging Gender Gaps in Workforce:Legally compulsory gender budgeting

 Boosting tax incentives for part-time work

Reversible Spacing:(gaps between children) methods, wage compensation systems to undergo


sterilisation,
Undertake Population Education Programme

NITI Aayog-

Increasing the basket of contraceptive choices,-


Addressing social determinants of health-age at marriage and sex-selective practices
Strengthening quality of care, including counseling services,
Increasing budgetary allocations for family planning,
Treating population stabilization and family planning as a national priority

Social Measures

Raising the Status of Women:economic participation reduces TFR.


Raising Age of Marriage:be raised to 21 years.

Economic Measures

Urbanization: TFR in urban and rural areas is 1.6 and 2.1 respectively (NFHS-5).
Development of Agriculture and Industry:
Depopulation

UN Estimations:India’s population-begin to decline only in 2063

Causes

Women Empowerment:significant progress-related to fertility, family planning, age at marriage


Contraceptive Prevalence Rate-from 54% to 67% at the all-India level.
Reversible Spacing:+ wage compensation systems to undergo sterilisation
Equitable sharing of housework-families as well as a career;
Falling fertility:Kerala-achieved replacement fertility in 1998
Declining urban fertility:NFHS-India’s urban fertility rate in 2019-21 -1.6- next to the U.K.
State variability-median Tamilian 10 years older than median Bihari
Lowered barriers to immigration-encouraging outmigration

challenges:

North-South differences:
Skewed sex ratio:NFHS-, families with at least one son-less likely-have more children
Invisible trend -because infuse of migrants
Difference in education:between northern and southern States
Lower working population:
Higher economic reliance-by 2050-12% elderly
Increasing Female Sterilization:38% against 36% in 2015-16.

Wf

Higher allocation for geriatric care


Adhering to the Cairo consensus: promotion of reproductive rights, empowering women,
universal education,
Adopting Women-Centric Approach:incentivize later marriages and childbirth
Seeing Population as a Resource rather than Burden-Economic Survey, 2018-19-predict a
generational divide between India’s north and south, Fifteen years from now.

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