slides_IO_workshop_spring18
slides_IO_workshop_spring18
Demographic Changes
IO Workshop
1
Motivation
2
This Paper
3
Plan Today
4
Outline
Introduction
Data
Descriptive Evidence
Model
Estimation
5
Data
Geocoded PSID
• 1990-2016 annual panel at individual and family level
• Individual migration history at block and tract level
• Detailed demographics: education, income, employment, housing
characteristics, etc
Introduction
Data
Descriptive Evidence
Model
Estimation
7
What is Gentrification
8
Characteristics of Gentrifying Neighborhoods
Process of gentrification:
9
Characteristics of Gentrifying Neighborhoods
Process of gentrification:
9
Characteristics of Gentrifying Neighborhoods
Process of gentrification:
9
Characteristics of Gentrifying Neighborhoods
Process of gentrification:
9
Characteristics of Gentrifying Neighborhoods
Process of gentrification:
9
Characteristics of Gentrifying Neighborhoods
Process of gentrification:
9
Operationalize Gentrification Measure
Similar to Freeman (2005) and Governing.com (2015), use 1990 & 2000 Censuses
and 2008–2012 ACS at census tract level
10
Operationalize Gentrification Measure
Similar to Freeman (2005) and Governing.com (2015), use 1990 & 2000 Censuses
and 2008–2012 ACS at census tract level
10
Operationalize Gentrification Measure
Similar to Freeman (2005) and Governing.com (2015), use 1990 & 2000 Censuses
and 2008–2012 ACS at census tract level
10
Operationalize Gentrification Measure
Similar to Freeman (2005) and Governing.com (2015), use 1990 & 2000 Censuses
and 2008–2012 ACS at census tract level
10
Operationalize Gentrification Measure
Similar to Freeman (2005) and Governing.com (2015), use 1990 & 2000 Censuses
and 2008–2012 ACS at census tract level
4. Increase in tract’s college share in top tercile in its metro area (affluent
in-migrants)
10
Operationalize Gentrification Measure
Similar to Freeman (2005) and Governing.com (2015), use 1990 & 2000 Censuses
and 2008–2012 ACS at census tract level
4. Increase in tract’s college share in top tercile in its metro area (affluent
in-migrants)
5. Tract’s real median home value increased and percentage increase in
top tercile in its metro area (investment)
10
SF Gentrification Map 1990-2000
Realtor District
11
SF Gentrification Map 2000-2010
12
Extent of Gentrification for Neighborhoods in SF
13
Characteristics of Gentrifying Neighborhoods in SF
14
Impact of Gentrification on Incumbents’ Outcomes: Literature
Improved amenities such as better schools & lower crime: Florida (2002),
Freeman (2006), McKinnish et al. (2010), Autor et al. (2017), Couture & Handbury
(2017)
15
Impact of Gentrification on Incumbents’ Outcomes
16
Impact of Gentrification on Incumbents’ Outcomes
17
Measure Incumbents’ Outcomes
• Displacement:
• Whether moved in year t: mobility not explained by life-cycle
factors are gentrification induced
• Displacement reported by respondents in PSID: likely overstate
displacement
• Within neighborhood move / Distance moved
• Eviction
18
Outline
Introduction
Data
Descriptive Evidence
Model
Estimation
19
Model: Overview
• Model of local labor markets: link between demographic mix and local
wages
20
Model: Worker Preferences
• Worker inelastically supplies one unit of labor and earns wage Wjt
• Consumes local good H with local price Rmjt and freely-traded national
good Z with national price Pt
( )
• Gains utility from local amenities Amjt = xAmjt , amjt , τimjt , xstmj
21
Model: Worker Preferences
• Worker inelastically supplies one unit of labor and earns wage Wjt
• Consumes local good H with local price Rmjt and freely-traded national
good Z with national price Pt
( )
• Gains utility from local amenities Amjt = xAmjt , amjt , τimjt , xstmj
1. Exogenous amenities: xAmjt (weather, oceans, etc.)
21
Model: Worker Preferences
• Worker inelastically supplies one unit of labor and earns wage Wjt
• Consumes local good H with local price Rmjt and freely-traded national
good Z with national price Pt
( )
• Gains utility from local amenities Amjt = xAmjt , amjt , τimjt , xstmj
1. Exogenous amenities: xAmjt (weather, oceans, etc.)
2. Endogenous amenities:
( )
Nyoung
mjt Nwhite
mjt ( )
amjt = ln , ln , ln Ymjt
Nmature
mjt Nminority
mjt
21
Model: Worker Preferences
• Worker inelastically supplies one unit of labor and earns wage Wjt
• Consumes local good H with local price Rmjt and freely-traded national
good Z with national price Pt
( )
• Gains utility from local amenities Amjt = xAmjt , amjt , τimjt , xstmj
1. Exogenous amenities: xAmjt (weather, oceans, etc.)
2. Endogenous amenities:
( )
Nyoung
mjt Nwhite
mjt ( )
amjt = ln , ln , ln Ymjt
Nmature
mjt Nminority
mjt
21
Model: Worker Preferences
• Worker inelastically supplies one unit of labor and earns wage Wjt
• Consumes local good H with local price Rmjt and freely-traded national
good Z with national price Pt
( )
• Gains utility from local amenities Amjt = xAmjt , amjt , τimjt , xstmj
1. Exogenous amenities: xAmjt (weather, oceans, etc.)
2. Endogenous amenities:
( )
Nyoung
mjt Nwhite
mjt ( )
amjt = ln , ln , ln Ymjt
Nmature
mjt Nminority
mjt
• Worker inelastically supplies one unit of labor and earns wage Wjt
• Consumes local good H with local price Rmjt and freely-traded national
good Z with national price Pt
( )
• Gains utility from local amenities Amjt = xAmjt , amjt
1. Exogenous amenities: xAmjt (weather, oceans, etc.)
2. Endogenous amenities:
( )
Nyoung
mjt Nwhite
mjt ( )
amjt = ln , ln , ln Ymjt
Nmature
mjt Nminority
mjt
22
Model: Worker Preferences
( x a )
• βi , βi , σi : heterogeneous by race × age
23
Outline
Introduction
Data
Descriptive Evidence
Model
Estimation
24
Estimation: Labor Supply to Neighborhoods & Cities
• Change in mean utility for tract m in city j across decades for worker i
of demographic group k:
( )
^ zi
∆ln skmjt = (∆wjt − ζ∆rmjt ) βiw + ∆amjt βia + ∆ξmjt
z
i
∆ξmjt ≡ ∆xAmjt βix
25
Instruments for ∆rmjt and ∆amjt : City with Two Neighborhoods
26
Instruments for ∆rmjt and ∆amjt
• φkb
1990 : nation-wide share of workers of demographic group k who
choose to live in house type b in year 1990
• ∆Nkj,−m,t : city-wide population change by demographic group k
during each decade, excluding workers in tract m
27
Estimation: Threats to Identification
28
Instrument for ∆wjt
• Use Bartik demand shocks (Bartik 1990) to instrument for city-wide wage
growth ∆wjt :
∑ Nl,j,1990
∆Bjt = (wl,−j,t − wl,−j,1990 )
Nj,1990
l
29
Parameter Estimates: Worker Labor Supply
30
Variable Definition Fixed Exp Share
Conclusions
Next steps:
31
Thank You!
32
SF Neighborhood Map
0
SF Gentrification Map
Bu Share
ilt
19 0 .1 .2 .3
39
Ea
rli
er
Bu
ilt
19
40
s
Young
Bu
ilt
19
60
s
Bu
ilt
Mature
Bu s
ilt
19
80
La
te
r
Bu Share
ilt 0 .05 .1 .15 .2 .25
19
39
Ea
rli
er
Bu
ilt
19
1990 Nation-Wide Preferences for Year Built of Houses
40
s
Bu
White, Alone
ilt
19
50
s
Bu
ilt
19
60
Black
s
(b) By Race
Bu
ilt
19
70
Bu s
ilt
19
80
La
te
r
White, Hispanic
1
1990 Nation-Wide Preferences for Usecode of Houses
.8
.8
.6
.6
Share
Share
.4
.4
.2
.2
0
0
r y ily ily r y ily ily
he mil he mil
Ot Fa am am Ot Fa am am
gle lti F lti F gle ltiF
ult
iF
Sin ll- mu -m
u
Sin mu -m
ma
e all- e
S L arg Sm Larg
2
1990 Nation-Wide Preferences for Tenure of Houses
.8
.8
.6
.6
Share
Share
.4
.4
.2
.2
0
0
d d d d
pie pie pie pie
ccu ccu Oc
cu ccu
rO rO er rO
ne nte n nte
Ow Re Ow Re
3
Systematic Preferences for House Types Across Cities
.2
2 2
R = 0.988 R = 0.921
Obs = 96 Obs = 192
.15
.15
βkb 1st half
.1
.05
.05
0
0
0 .05 .1 .15 .2 0 .05 .1 .15 .2
βkb 2nd half βkb 2nd half
4
( )
First Stage for ln Young/Mature
5
( )
First Stage for ln White/Minority
6
First Stage for ln (Hhld Income)
7
Bartik Labor Demand Shocks as Instrument for City-Level
Migration
Identification Threats
8
Shift-Share Labor Supply Shocks as Instrument for City-Level
Migration
• Following Altonji and Card (1991) & Howard (2017), predicted city-level
djt :
inmigration ∆N
∑ mc→j,1990
djt =
∆N · mc→−j,t
mc→−j,1990
c∈−j
Identification Threats
9
First Stage for ln (Wage)
10
Relationship between Bartik Demand Shocks and Local Characteristics
(1) (2)
Bartik 2000 Bartik 2010
Male -0.015 0.043
(0.012) (0.029)
White -0.018∗∗∗ -0.057∗∗∗
(0.004) (0.010)
College 0.025∗∗∗ 0.083∗∗∗
(0.006) (0.014)
Immigrant -0.002 -0.027∗∗
(0.005) (0.013)
Mature -0.035∗∗∗ -0.145∗∗∗
(0.011) (0.026)
Constant 0.361∗∗∗ 0.630∗∗∗
(0.010) (0.024)
N 238 238
R2 0.307 0.420
12
Parameter Estimates
Parameter Estimates: Worker Labor Supply
Table 2: GMM Model Estimates: Year FE, Fixed Local Expenditure Share