Unit 3

by
Dr. R. NAGALAKSHMI
 Unit 3 - Topics
➢ Climate change impact in different sectors-

➢ Agriculture,

➢ Forestry,

➢ Fishery,

➢ Socio economic impact - tourism,

➢ Evidences of warming and change in atmosphere/ ocean circulations. Sea level changes and Shore line
changes.

➢ Polar ice, Isotopes, Ice melting and Ice core analysis, glaciers loss.

➢ Energy supply: Role of energy in development of human civilization, Emissions from energy generation.

➢ Role of energy in current climate change.

Agricultural sector

✓Climate change can affect crops, livestock, soil and water resources, rural
communities, and agricultural workers. The agriculture sector also emits
greenhouse gases into the atmosphere that contribute to climate change.

✓Climate change may affect agriculture at both local and regional scales. Key
impacts are described in this section.

1. Changes in Agricultural Productivity

2. Impacts to Soil and Water Resources

3. Agricultural Workers' Health

 Changes in Agricultural Productivity
➢ Climate change can make conditions better or worse for growing crops in different regions. For
example, changes in temperature, rainfall, and frost-free days are leading to longer growing
seasons. A longer growing season can have both positive and negative impacts for raising food.

➢ Air pollution may also damage crops, plants, and forests. For example, when plants absorb large
amounts of ground-level ozone, they experience reduced photosynthesis, slower growth, and
higher sensitivity to diseases

➢ Temperature and precipitation changes will also very likely expand the occurrence and range of
insects, weeds, and diseases. This could lead to a greater need for weed and pest control

➢ Pollination-Warmer temperatures and changing precipitation can affect when plants bloom and
when pollinators such as bees and butterflies, come out. If mismatches occur between when plants
flower and when pollinators emerge, pollination could decrease.
 Impacts to Soil and Water Resources
• Climate change is expected to increase the frequency of heavy precipitation,
which can harm crops by eroding soil and depleting soil nutrients.

• Sea level rise and storms also pose threats to coastal agricultural communities.
These threats include erosion, agricultural land losses, and saltwater intrusion,
which can contaminate water supplies. Climate change is expected to worsen these
threats.
Agricultural Workers' Health

• Agricultural workers face several climate-related health risks. These

include exposures to heat and other extreme weather, more pesticide

exposure due to expanded pest presence, disease-carrying pest like

mosquitos and ticks, and degraded air quality.

 What We Can Do
• we can reduce the impact of climate change on agriculture in many ways, including the following:

• Incorporate climate-smart farming methods. Farmers can use climate forecasting tools, plant cover
crops, and take other steps to help manage climate-related production threats.

• Join AgSTAR. Livestock producers can get help in recovering methane, a potent greenhouse gas, from
biogas created when manure decomposes.

• Reduce runoff. Agricultural producers can strategically apply fertilizers, keep their animals out of
streams, and take more actions to reduce nutrient-laden runoff.

• Boost crop resistance. Adopt research-proven ways to reduce the impacts of climate change on crops
and livestock, such as reducing pesticide use and improving pollination.

• Prevent food waste. Stretch your expenditure and shrink your carbon footprint by
planning your shopping trips carefully and properly storing food. Donate nutritious, untouched food to
food banks and those in need.
India
• In the last 100 years the mean annual surface air temperature of India has increased by

0.4-0.6°C. Research reported decreasing rainfall tendency in both southwest and northeast

monsoon seasons in most parts of central and northern India. In contrast, peninsular parts

of India particularly over the region from 9-16o N encompassing the rice growing areas

showed an increasing rainfall tendency. This increase was particularly strong during the

northeast monsoon season.

• Government of India has formulated schemes/plans to make agriculture more resilient to climate
change.

• The National Mission for Sustainable Agriculture (NMSA) is one of the Missions within the National
Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC). The mission aims at evolving and implementing strategies
to make Indian agriculture more resilient to the changing climate.

• To meet the challenges of sustaining domestic food production in the face of changing climate, the
Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR), Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare,
Government of India launched a flagship network research project ‘National Innovations in Climate
Resilient Agriculture’ (NICRA) in 2011. The project aims to develop and promote climate resilient
technologies in agriculture, which addresses vulnerable areas of the country and the outputs of the
project help the districts and regions prone to extreme weather conditions like droughts, floods, frost,
heat waves, etc. to cope with such extreme events.
Cont..
• Short term and long-term research programs with a national perspective have been taken up involving

adaptation and mitigation covering crops, horticulture, livestock, fisheries and poultry. The main thrust areas

covered are;

• (i) identifying most vulnerable districts/regions,

• (ii) evolving crop varieties and management practices for adaptation and mitigation,

• (iii) assessing climate change impacts on livestock, fisheries and poultry and identifying adaptation strategies.

Since 2014, 1888 climate resilient varieties have been developed besides 68 location specific climate resilient

technologies have been developed and demonstrated for wider adoption among farming communities.

• This information was given by the Union Minister of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare, Shri Narendra Singh

Tomar in a written reply in Lok Sabha.

 Fishery sector
• Heavy rains can also increase agricultural runoff into oceans, lakes, and streams
which can harm water quality. Runoff can carry nutrients, fertilizer, and pesticides
into neighboring water bodies.

• When coupled with warming water temperatures brought on by climate change,

runoff can lead to depleted oxygen levels in water bodies. This is known
as hypoxia. Hypoxia can kill fish and shellfish. It can also affect their ability to
find food and habitat, which in turn could harm the coastal societies and
economies that depend on those ecosystems.
• A "species range shift" refers to a change in the geographic area where a particular
species can be found, usually occurring when environmental conditions change, most
commonly due to climate change, causing the species to move to a new area with
more suitable conditions, like higher latitudes or elevations, to maintain their
ecological niche.
Climate change significantly impacts fisheries and aquaculture

Climate change significantly impacts fisheries and aquaculture by causing rising

water temperatures, altered ocean currents, reduced oxygen levels, and changes in

marine ecosystems, leading to potential declines in fish populations, shifts in species

distribution, and increased risks for fish diseases, ultimately affecting food security

and livelihoods dependent on fisheries

Key impacts of climate change on fisheries and aquaculture
• Temperature changes:

• Reduced fish growth: Warmer waters can lead to slower fish growth rates as their metabolic needs
increase.

• Species migration: Fish may move to cooler waters, impacting traditional fishing grounds.

• Coral reef degradation: Rising temperatures can bleach and destroy coral reefs, which are crucial
habitats for many fish species.

• Ocean acidification:

• Shellfish impacts: Increased CO2 levels in the ocean can affect the ability of shellfish to form
shells.

• Disruption of marine food webs: Changes in ocean chemistry can impact the physiology and
behavior of marine organisms.
 Oxygen depletion

• Reduced carrying capacity: Warmer water holds less dissolved oxygen, leading to potential fish
kills in areas with high fish densities.

• Impacts on deepwater species: Oxygen-poor zones can expand, affecting deep-sea fish
populations.

• Changes in marine ecosystem structure:

• Algal blooms: Increased nutrient levels due to runoff can trigger harmful algal blooms, affecting
fish health and water quality.

• Loss of coastal habitats: Rising sea levels can inundate coastal wetlands like mangroves, which
are essential nursery grounds for fish.
Impacts on aquaculture

• Disease outbreaks: Warmer waters can increase the prevalence and severity of
fish diseases, leading to losses in aquaculture operations.

• Feed requirements: Changes in fish physiology due to warmer temperatures may

require adjustments to feed composition and quantity.

• Infrastructure damage: Extreme weather events associated with climate change

can damage aquaculture facilities.
Potential adaptation strategies

Species selection:

• Aquaculture operations may need to shift to more climate-resilient fish species.

Improved water management:

• Technologies to enhance water quality and oxygen levels in aquaculture systems.

Marine protected areas:

• Establishing protected areas to safeguard critical fish habitats.

Fisheries management:

• Implementing adaptive management strategies to adjust fishing quotas based on changing

fish populations.
Forestry

Climate change is significantly affecting forestry worldwide, impacting tree growth, forest health,
and biodiversity. Here are some key ways climate change is impacting forests:

1. Increased Temperatures and Drought

• Rising global temperatures lead to more frequent and severe droughts.

• Reduced water availability weakens trees, making them more susceptible to diseases and pests.

• Certain tree species may struggle to survive in their native regions, leading to shifts in forest
composition.
2. Increased Wildfires

• Higher temperatures and drier conditions contribute to longer and more intense wildfire seasons.

• Fires can destroy large forested areas, reducing carbon sequestration and increasing greenhouse gas
emissions.

3. Pest and Disease Outbreaks

• Warmer conditions enable pests and pathogens to thrive, increasing infestations.

• Insects like bark beetles, which kill trees, are expanding into new regions due to milder winters.

Diseases such as sudden oak death and pine wilt are becoming more widespread.

4. Changes in Tree Growth and Productivity

• Some regions may experience increased growth due to longer growing seasons and higher CO₂ levels.

• Other areas may suffer reduced growth due to water shortages, nutrient limitations, and heat stress.
5. Biodiversity Loss and Habitat Shifts
• Species that rely on forests may struggle to adapt to rapid changes in climate.
• Some tree species are migrating to cooler or wetter areas, but not all can move fast enough to
survive.
• Increased forest fragmentation may threaten wildlife and reduce ecosystem resilience.
6. Carbon Storage and Climate Regulation
• Healthy forests absorb CO₂, helping mitigate climate change.
• Deforestation and degradation release stored carbon back into the atmosphere, exacerbating
climate change.
Disturbances such as wildfires and pest outbreaks reduce the ability of forests to act as carbon sinks.
7. Economic and Social Impacts
• Forestry industries (timber, paper, etc.) may face losses due to tree mortality and decreased
productivity.
• Indigenous and local communities dependent on forests for livelihoods and cultural practices face
disruption.
• Governments and industries must adapt forestry management practices to build climate resilience.
 Impact of Climate Change on Forestry in India
• India’s forests, covering about 24% of its land area, play a crucial role in climate regulation,
biodiversity conservation, and livelihoods for millions of people. However, climate change is
posing severe challenges to the country’s forests.
1. Rising Temperatures and Droughts
• Increased heat stress is reducing the growth of important tree species like Sal, Teak, and Pine.
• Droughts in central and southern India (e.g., Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra) are leading to tree
mortality.
• Moist deciduous forests (found in the Western Ghats and parts of the Himalayas) are particularly
vulnerable to drying conditions.
2. Forest Fires on the Rise
• More frequent and intense wildfires in states like Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Odisha, and
Chhattisgarh.
• Prolonged dry spells and human-induced factors (such as shifting agriculture and illegal activities)
are increasing fire risks.
• Fires not only destroy biodiversity but also release carbon into the atmosphere, worsening
climate change.
3. Pest and Disease Outbreaks

• Warmer winters allow invasive pests (e.g., bark beetles, defoliators) to thrive, damaging tree
species.

• Fungal diseases are spreading in Himalayan forests, affecting species like Fir and Deodar.

• Sal borer infestation is becoming a major problem in central India, affecting Sal forests.

4. Shifts in Forest Composition

• Tropical evergreen forests (e.g., Western Ghats) may shrink due to heat stress.

• Alpine and temperate forests (Himalayas) are shifting upwards, with species like Oak and
Rhododendron being replaced by shrubs.
Mangrove forests (Sundarbans) are at risk due to rising sea levels and salinity
changes. 5. Impact on Biodiversity

• Loss of habitat for key species like tigers, elephants, and leopards.

• Coral reefs and mangrove ecosystems (Sundarbans, Andaman & Nicobar) are
degrading, affecting marine and terrestrial biodiversity.

• Indigenous species like Ebony, Rosewood, and Sandalwood may decline due to
habitat changes.
6. Impact on Livelihoods and Economy
• Over 275 million people depend on forests for fuelwood, fodder, and non-timber
products.
• Tribal communities in states like Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, and Odisha face
threats to their traditional forest-based livelihoods.
• The timber and paper industries may experience shortages, affecting economic
output.
Solutions and Adaptation Strategies

• Sustainable forest management (e.g., selective logging, controlled burns, and

reforestation).

• Planting climate-resilient tree species that can withstand drought and temperature
shifts.

• Enhancing biodiversity to increase ecosystem resilience.

• Reducing deforestation and increasing afforestation/reforestation efforts.

• Implementing policies to protect forests and promote carbon sequestration.

Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies in India

➢ Afforestation & Reforestation – Large-scale plantation drives under programs like National
Afforestation Programme (NAP) and Green India Mission.

➢ Forest Fire Management – Use of technology like satellite-based fire monitoring (FIRMS) to
detect and control wildfires.

Climate-Resilient Tree Species – Promoting drought-resistant and fast-growing native species.

➢ Sustainable Forest Management – Community participation (Joint Forest Management - JFM) to

ensure conservation and sustainable use.

➢ Mangrove and Coastal Protection – Conservation of Sundarbans mangroves through eco-restoration

projects.
Impact of Climate Change on Tourism
Climate change is significantly affecting the tourism industry worldwide, with rising
temperatures, extreme weather events, and ecosystem changes disrupting popular
destinations. Tourism in India, a country known for its diverse landscapes—Himalayan
mountains, coastal beaches, forests, and heritage sites—is particularly vulnerable.

1. Rising Temperatures and Heatwaves

• Popular cities like Jaipur, Delhi, Agra, and Varanasi experience extreme summer heat
(above 45°C), making outdoor sightseeing uncomfortable and reducing tourist arrivals.

• Hill stations like Shimla, Manali, and Ooty are witnessing warmer winters, affecting the
traditional “cool-weather” appeal.
2. Glacial Melt and Impact on Mountain Tourism

• Himalayan glaciers (e.g., Gangotri, Siachen) are shrinking due to rising temperatures, impacting
trekking, mountaineering, and religious tourism (e.g., Char Dham Yatra).

• Unstable weather conditions (landslides, avalanches) in Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, and

Ladakh pose risks to adventure tourism.

• Ski resorts like Gulmarg (Kashmir) and Auli (Uttarakhand) face reduced snowfall, shortening
the skiing season.
Coastal Tourism at Risk

• Sea level rise is threatening famous beaches in Goa, Kerala, and Puri (Odisha), leading to coastal
erosion and loss of beachfront properties.

• Increased cyclones (e.g., Cyclone Tauktae, Cyclone Amphan) have damaged tourism infrastructure
along the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea coasts.

Coral bleaching in Andaman & Nicobar Islands is reducing marine biodiversity, affecting scuba diving
and snorkeling tourism. 4. Increased Natural Disasters and Infrastructure Damage

• Heavy floods (e.g., Kerala 2018 floods, Uttarakhand 2013 disaster) disrupt tourism, damage roads,
hotels, and historical sites.

• Landslides in regions like Darjeeling, Sikkim, and Meghalaya make travel dangerous and unpredictable.

• Droughts in Rajasthan and Gujarat impact desert tourism by reducing water availability for cultural
events and safaris.
5. Impact on Wildlife and Eco-Tourism

• Rising temperatures and habitat destruction threaten tiger reserves (Sundarbans, Ranthambore, Jim
Corbett), affecting wildlife tourism.

• Droughts and changing rainfall patterns are reducing biodiversity in sanctuaries like Kaziranga and
Gir, making wildlife sightings less frequent.

Mangrove depletion in Sundarbans (due to rising sea levels) threatens eco-tourism opportunities. 6.
Changing Tourist Preferences

• Travelers may shift to cooler destinations (e.g., Northeast India, Leh-Ladakh) due to rising temperatures
in traditional hotspots.

• Demand for sustainable tourism is increasing, with eco-lodges, responsible travel, and nature-based
tourism gaining popularity.

• Off-season tourism growth as people avoid extreme summer heat and choose alternative seasons for
travel.
Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies
• Sustainable tourism practices – Promoting eco-friendly accommodations, reducing carbon
footprints, and responsible tourism campaigns.

• Climate-resilient infrastructure – Strengthening coastal and mountain tourism facilities to

withstand extreme weather events.

• Alternative tourism models – Developing rural, agro, and cultural tourism to reduce pressure on
climate-sensitive areas.

• Conservation of natural sites – Protecting coral reefs, mangroves, forests, and glaciers to
maintain biodiversity and tourist appeal.

• Early warning systems – Implementing disaster preparedness measures to ensure tourist safety
during extreme weather events.
Evidence of warming and change in atmosphere
1. Global Temperature Increase

• Rising Average Temperatures: Over the past century, global average temperatures have increased,
particularly since the mid-20th century. According to NASA, the Earth's global temperature has risen by about
1.2°C (2.2°F) since 1880, with the majority of warming occurring in the past few decades.

• Heatwaves: The frequency, duration, and intensity of heatwaves have increased, with more regions
experiencing extreme temperatures.

2. Increased Greenhouse Gas Concentrations

• Carbon Dioxide (CO2): CO2 levels in the atmosphere have reached the highest levels in at least 800,000
years, with concentrations exceeding 400 parts per million (ppm) in recent years. This is primarily due to
human activities such as fossil fuel combustion, deforestation, and industrial processes.

• Methane and Nitrous Oxide: Other greenhouse gases like methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) have also
increased. These gases trap heat in the atmosphere, contributing to the greenhouse effect.
• 3. Ocean Warming

• Rising Ocean Temperatures: The world’s oceans have absorbed much of the
increased heat from global warming. Ocean temperatures have been rising, which
has led to coral bleaching, changing marine ecosystems, and more intense storms.

• Sea Level Rise: Warming oceans expand, and melting glaciers and ice sheets
contribute to rising sea levels, which are affecting coastal regions worldwide
Shifts in Weather Patterns

4. Changing Precipitation: There have been shifts in rainfall patterns. Some areas experience
heavier rainfall and flooding, while others face droughts and water shortages.

• More Intense Storms: There is evidence that tropical cyclones (hurricanes and typhoons) are
becoming more intense due to warmer ocean temperatures, though their frequency may not be
increasing as much.

5. Arctic and Antarctic Changes

• Arctic Amplification: The Arctic region is warming faster than the rest of the planet. The Arctic is
warming about twice as fast as the global average, a phenomenon called "Arctic amplification."
This has led to the rapid melting of sea ice and glaciers.

• Melting Ice Sheets and Glaciers: Glaciers and ice sheets in both the Arctic and Antarctic are
losing mass. The Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets are shrinking, contributing to rising sea levels.
6. Atmospheric Changes

• Stratospheric Cooling: While the surface of the Earth is warming, the stratosphere (the
layer of the atmosphere above the troposphere) has been cooling. This is because
greenhouse gases, particularly CO2, trap heat in the lower atmosphere, preventing heat
from escaping to space.

• Changes in Cloud Formation and Composition: Changes in temperature and

atmospheric moisture are altering cloud patterns, which in turn affect weather patterns
and the Earth’s energy balance.
7. Shifting Ecological Patterns

• Changing Plant and Animal Habitats: Many species are shifting their ranges due to warming
temperatures. For instance, some species of plants and animals are moving towards higher
altitudes or latitudes in response to temperature changes.

• Phenological Changes: The timing of natural events such as plant blooming, animal
migrations, and breeding seasons has shifted, with many happening earlier in the year due to
warmer temperatures.

8. Changes in the Carbon Cycle

• Feedback Loops: Warming can create feedback loops that accelerate climate change. For
example, the melting of Arctic ice reduces the Earth’s albedo (reflectivity), causing more solar
radiation to be absorbed and further warming the planet. Similarly, thawing permafrost releases
methane, a potent greenhouse gas.
 Sea Level Changes
• Causes of Sea Level Rise

• There are three primary factors contributing to global sea level rise:

• Thermal Expansion (Water Expansion):

• As the atmosphere warms, ocean temperatures rise. Warmer water expands, causing the volume of the
oceans to increase. This process, called thermal expansion, is responsible for about half of the observed
sea level rise since the late 19th century.

• The impact is particularly pronounced at the surface of the ocean but also occurs at deeper depths.
Cont…
• Melting of Land-Based Ice:

• Glaciers: The retreat of glaciers around the world, from the Himalayas to the Alps,
contributes to rising sea levels. As glaciers melt, they release freshwater into the oceans,
directly increasing their volume.

• Ice Sheets: Large ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica are melting rapidly. In particular,
the West Antarctic Ice Sheet and portions of the Greenland Ice Sheet are losing ice at
accelerating rates. This is a significant contributor to sea level rise.
Cont…
• Ice Shelf Collapse: Ice shelves, which are floating ice sheets attached to land, have
been thinning and breaking apart, particularly in Antarctica. Though floating ice
doesn’t directly contribute to sea level rise (since it’s already displacing water), the
loss of ice shelves allows land-based ice to flow more rapidly into the sea.

• Loss of Groundwater Storage:

• The depletion of groundwater, often due to human activities like over-extraction for
agriculture, industry, and drinking water, is another source of sea level rise. When
groundwater is extracted and used (or stored in reservoirs), it eventually makes its
way to the oceans through runoff or infiltration.
 Rate of Sea Level Rise
• Global sea levels have risen by about 15–20 cm (6–8 inches) over the last century.
However, the rate has increased dramatically since the 1990s, with a current rate
of around 3.3 millimeters per year. This rate is expected to continue or accelerate
as global warming progresses.

• IPCC Projections: The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

projects that by 2100, sea levels could rise between 0.3 and 1 meter (1–3 feet),
depending on future greenhouse gas emissions and the rate of ice sheet melting.
Impacts of Sea Level Rise
• Coastal Flooding: Higher sea levels result in more frequent and severe coastal flooding, even in
the absence of storms.

• Saltwater Intrusion: Rising seas can push saltwater into freshwater aquifers, making them
unsuitable for drinking and agriculture.

• Displacement of Populations: Low-lying regions, especially islands, will become increasingly

uninhabitable, leading to climate refugees. For example, countries like the Maldives, Kiribati, and
Marshall Islands are at high risk of losing their land due to sea level rise.

• Erosion of Coastlines: The increased water volume erodes beaches, cliffs, and dunes, causing
permanent changes to coastlines.
Shoreline Changes
• Coastal Erosion

• Erosion is the process by which coastal areas are worn away due to the actions of waves, currents, and human
activities. As sea levels rise, the force of waves and tides can erode beaches and cliffs at an accelerating rate.

• Impact of Rising Sea Levels: As the baseline of the sea rises, it pushes further inland, eroding coastlines and
causing the loss of beaches. The erosion can also damage infrastructure, including roads, buildings, and
coastal defenses.

• Flooding of Low-Lying Areas

• Flooding of low-lying coastlines is already a major concern. Areas such as Florida’s coastline, the
Netherlands, and many small island nations are at risk of regular flooding, making coastal communities
increasingly vulnerable.

• Storm Surges: Higher sea levels can make storm surges (the temporary rise in sea level during a storm) even
more destructive. Even moderate hurricanes can push storm surges higher than usual, causing greater coastal
damage.
Shifting Shorelines and Changing Beaches
• Beach Loss: Some coastal areas are experiencing significant beach erosion,
leading to the loss of important ecosystems and tourism assets. For instance,
beaches in places like Hawaii and the Caribbean are shrinking.

• Relocation of Coastal Features: Rising seas can force coastlines to "move"

inland. This may involve the shifting of wetlands, estuaries, and even salt marshes,
which are important habitats for many species of wildlife.
 Human Intervention in Coastlines

• Coastal Defenses: Many coastal cities have invested in seawalls, dams, and other forms of
protection to prevent flooding and erosion. While these structures can be effective in the short
term, they can also have negative ecological impacts and are expensive to maintain as sea levels
continue to rise.

• Beach Nourishment: Some areas try to restore eroded beaches by pumping sand onto shorelines.
This approach, known as beach nourishment, is expensive and needs to be repeated regularly,
especially as sea levels rise.

• Managed Retreat: In some cases, communities are being forced to consider managed retreat,
which involves moving infrastructure and people away from the rising coastline. This has been
proposed in areas like New York's coastline and parts of the UK.
Climate Change on Ocean Circulation
A. Warming Oceans and the Slowing of the Thermohaline Circulation

• Global Warming and Heat Distribution: As the atmosphere warms due to higher concentrations of greenhouse gases, the
surface of the ocean absorbs more heat. Warmer surface waters are less dense, and when combined with melting polar ice,
they may prevent the cooling and sinking of water that typically drives the thermohaline circulation. This circulation is
important for regulating the temperature of the Earth, especially in the North Atlantic.

• Weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC): The AMOC, a critical part of the global
conveyor belt, is weakening. The AMOC includes the Gulf Stream and other currents that bring warm water from the
tropics to the North Atlantic. Climate change is causing an influx of freshwater from melting ice sheets in Greenland and
the Arctic, reducing the salinity of seawater. This reduces the water's density, making it harder for water to sink and driving
the overturning circulation.

• Consequences: If the AMOC continues to weaken, parts of Europe, particularly the UK and northern Europe, could
experience much colder temperatures. Additionally, the Gulf Stream helps to moderate the climate of the eastern United
States and parts of the Caribbean. A slowdown of the Gulf Stream could result in more frequent and intense coastal storms,
changes in precipitation patterns, and disruptions in marine ecosystems.
 Increased Melting of Ice Sheets and Glaciers

• Freshwater Influx: The melting of glaciers and ice sheets, especially in

Greenland and Antarctica, contributes large amounts of freshwater to the oceans.
This influx of freshwater dilutes the salinity of seawater, which is important for
maintaining the density-driven processes in ocean circulation.
• Potential Consequences: A significant loss of ice mass could disrupt the
thermohaline circulation, leading to a slowdown of ocean currents. The result
could be regional cooling in the North Atlantic and rising sea levels around
the globe. In the longer term, a collapse of the AMOC could lead to dramatic
shifts in global climate patterns, particularly for Europe, North America, and
the tropics.
Changes in Wind Patterns

• Shifts in Wind Direction: Changes in atmospheric circulation, particularly

the Jet stream and trade winds, due to climate change, also affect ocean
currents. Stronger trade winds can intensify the El Niño phenomenon,
leading to changes in temperature and precipitation patterns globally.
• Consequences: If the trade winds weaken or shift, this could lead to a disruption in
the normal patterns of upwelling (the movement of nutrient-rich water from the deep
ocean to the surface) and downwelling (where surface water sinks). This would affect
marine ecosystems, disrupt fishing industries, and alter the global carbon cycle.
Melting Arctic Sea Ice and Its Impact on Ocean Circulation

• Arctic Amplification: The Arctic is warming faster than the rest of the planet due
to Arctic amplification. This phenomenon is driven by the loss of sea ice, which
reduces the Earth’s albedo (reflectivity), leading to greater absorption of sunlight
by the ocean. As the ice melts, it releases freshwater into the ocean, reducing
salinity.
• Consequences: The reduction of sea ice disrupts the polar front, which can weaken the
stratification of ocean layers. The freshwater from ice melt could inhibit the sinking of cold
water, which is vital for maintaining the thermohaline circulation. As a result, the polar
vortex could become more variable, leading to more extreme weather events in the
Northern Hemisphere.
Effects of Disrupted Ocean Circulation
• A. Climate Shifts and Extreme Weather

• Cold and Harsh Winters in Europe: A weakening of the AMOC could lead to cooler temperatures
in Europe, which depends on the warm waters brought by the Gulf Stream. This would cause
harsher winters, more severe storms, and a shift in precipitation patterns.

• Tropical Rainfall Changes: Ocean circulation influences the distribution of tropical rainfall. The
weakening of the circulation could shift rainfall patterns in the tropics, exacerbating droughts in
some areas and increasing rainfall in others, leading to extreme weather events like floods or
droughts.

• More Intense Hurricanes and Typhoons: Warmer sea surface temperatures provide more energy
for tropical cyclones. Disruptions to ocean circulation may also change the frequency and
intensity of hurricanes and typhoons, potentially making them stronger and more destructive.
 Ecosystem Disruption

• Coral Bleaching and Marine Ecosystems: Changes in ocean circulation affect the
availability of nutrients in the ocean. Upwelling, the process by which nutrient-rich
waters rise to the surface, is disrupted when ocean currents change. This affects the
productivity of marine ecosystems, including coral reefs. Warmer waters from disrupted
currents may also cause coral bleaching, where corals expel the algae they depend on for
energy.

• Marine Species Migration: Ocean circulation patterns influence the migration of marine
species. Changes in current patterns, particularly in the North Pacific and North
Atlantic, can cause species to shift their ranges or face extinction due to the altered
availability of food and suitable habitats.
Ocean Carbon Cycle Disruption

• The ocean plays a key role in regulating the Earth's carbon cycle by
absorbing a significant portion of atmospheric CO2. If ocean currents
slow down, the biological pump (the process by which CO2 is
absorbed and transported to the deep ocean) may become less
efficient. This would reduce the ocean's ability to act as a carbon sink,
exacerbating the greenhouse effect and accelerating global warming.
Polar Ice, Isotopes, Ice Melting, Ice Core Analysis, and Glacier Loss

• Polar ice and glaciers are crucial indicators of climate change. The polar regions,

particularly the Arctic and Antarctic, are warming at a faster rate than the global

average, a phenomenon known as Arctic amplification.

• This has led to the melting of ice sheets, glaciers, and sea ice, with significant

implications for sea levels and global climate patterns.

• The study of isotopes in ice cores, as well as the monitoring of ice loss from glaciers and

ice sheets, provides key insights into past and present climate conditions.
 Polar Ice and Ice Sheets
• A. The Polar Ice Sheets

• Arctic Ice: The Arctic is largely composed of sea ice, which forms and melts on the surface of the
ocean. However, the Arctic sea ice has been shrinking significantly in recent decades, particularly
during the summer months. In addition to sea ice, glaciers on land are melting and contributing to
global sea level rise.

• Antarctic Ice Sheet: The Antarctic ice sheet, which holds about 60% of the world’s fresh water,
is crucial to global sea level rise. It consists of two major ice sheets: West Antarctica and East
Antarctica. The loss of ice from West Antarctica is a key concern, as it has been losing ice at an
accelerating rate due to ocean-driven melting of ice shelves.

• Greenland Ice Sheet: Greenland’s ice sheet is another major contributor to sea level rise. Its rate
of ice loss has also increased, mainly due to surface melting and ice flow into the ocean.
Impact of Melting Ice on Sea Levels
• As polar ice melts, it directly contributes to global sea level rise. Since 1993, the
contribution of melting ice sheets and glaciers to sea level rise has increased
significantly, with projections suggesting that continued ice loss could raise sea
levels by several meters over the coming centuries, particularly if the collapse of
the West Antarctic Ice Sheet accelerates.
Melting Processes
• Surface Melting: Higher temperatures cause surface melting of ice, especially in

Greenland and parts of Antarctica, adding freshwater to the ocean.

• Calving of Ice Shelves: Ice shelves, which float on the ocean, can break off, or calve,

when warmer ocean currents undercut them, leading to the rapid release of ice into

the sea.

• Ice Flow Acceleration: The flow of glaciers towards the ocean can increase as the ice

melts at their base, speeding up the movement of ice from land to the sea.
Isotopes in Ice and Climate Records
• Ice cores provide one of the most valuable records of Earth’s past climate, preserving
atmospheric gases, dust, and isotopic signals from thousands to even millions of years
ago.

• A. Oxygen Isotopes (δ18O)

• Oxygen isotopes are among the most widely used proxies for reconstructing past
temperatures. The ratio of oxygen-18 (δ18O) to oxygen-16 in ice cores changes with
temperature.
• Warmer temperatures tend to increase the ratio of δ18O, while colder
temperatures decrease the ratio.
• By analyzing the oxygen isotope ratios in ice cores, scientists can reconstruct past
climate conditions and assess the relationship between temperature
Carbon Isotopes (δ13C)
• Carbon isotopes are used to study changes in atmospheric CO2 over time.
The ratio of carbon-13 (δ13C) to carbon-12 in ice cores helps researchers
understand shifts in carbon cycles and how the composition of the
atmosphere has evolved.
• C. Isotopes of Water (Deuterium, δD)
• Deuterium (δD), a heavier isotope of hydrogen, is another key isotope used
in ice core analysis. The ratio of deuterium to regular hydrogen (protium) in
ice can provide additional information about past temperature and
moisture conditions.
Ice Core Data and Climate History

• Ice cores from locations like Vostok Station (Antarctica) and Greenland have
provided records of Earth’s climate over the last 800,000 years. These cores show
a close relationship between CO2 levels, global temperatures, and ice ages.

• For instance, during glacial periods, both CO2 levels and temperatures were
significantly lower, and during interglacial periods (like the present), both CO2
and temperatures are higher.
Ice Melting and Glacier Loss

• A. Glacier Retreat

• Glaciers worldwide are retreating rapidly due to rising global temperatures. In the Himalayas, Andes,
Rockies, and Alps, glaciers are shrinking and disappearing at an accelerating rate. This contributes to
rising sea levels and the loss of freshwater resources for millions of people who depend on glaciers for
drinking water, agriculture, and hydropower.

• Himalayan Glaciers: Glaciers in the Himalayas have shrunk by over 30% in the last 50 years.

• European Alps: Glaciers in the Alps have lost up to 50% of their volume over the last century.

• Andes: Glaciers in the Andes have retreated by about 30% in the last 50 years.
Glacier Mass Loss and Ice Flow

• Mass Loss: Glaciers are losing mass primarily due to melting at their surface
(especially during warmer months), calving (the breaking off of ice chunks), and
the flow of ice into the ocean.

• Glacier Movement: The movement of glaciers is also influenced by temperature.

As glaciers warm, they accelerate their flow towards the sea, contributing to
further ice loss and sea level rise.
Glacier Contributions to Sea Level Rise

• Glaciers and ice caps contribute to sea level rise in two main ways:

• Meltwater: As glaciers melt, the resulting freshwater flows into the oceans,
raising sea levels.

• Calving: Icebergs breaking off from glaciers add freshwater directly to the
sea.

• Together, glaciers worldwide contribute to about 1 millimeter of sea level rise

each year.
Ice Core Analysis and Climate Change

• A. Key Discoveries from Ice Cores

• Historical CO2 Levels: Ice cores have shown that CO2 levels have fluctuated between 180-280
ppm during ice ages and interglacial periods for the last 800,000 years. The current CO2
concentration has already surpassed 400 ppm, a level not seen in at least 3 million years,
suggesting that today’s warming is largely due to human activity.

• Temperature and CO2 Correlation: Ice core data reveal a strong correlation between
temperature and CO2 levels. As CO2 levels rise, so do temperatures, and vice versa, indicating
that CO2 is a major driver of global climate change.
Cont…
• B. Understanding Past Climate Events

• Ice cores provide insight into past events like the last ice age and warm periods like the Holocene
(current interglacial period). By studying these cores, scientists can better understand natural
climate variability and the role of human activities in recent warming.

• C. Predicting Future Trends

• Data from ice cores help scientists predict future climate trends, especially regarding the potential
for tipping points (such as the collapse of ice sheets or a drastic shift in global temperatures).
Understanding the relationship between ice and climate over millennia allows for more accurate
projections of future warming and ice loss.
 Implications of Ice Loss and Glacier Retreat
• A. Sea Level Rise Continued melting of glaciers and ice sheets will contribute to global sea level rise,
affecting low-lying coastal areas, islands, and cities. This will increase the risk of flooding, coastal erosion,
and the displacement of populations.

• B. Freshwater Availability Glaciers serve as "water towers" for many regions, storing large amounts of
freshwater that is released slowly over time. As glaciers retreat, water availability will decrease, which could
lead to water shortages for communities that depend on glacial meltwater, particularly in places like Asia
(e.g., the Hindu Kush-Himalaya region) and South America (e.g., the Andes).

• C. Ecosystem Changes The loss of glaciers and ice sheets affects ecosystems that rely on ice and cold
habitats, including polar bears, walruses, and other species in the Arctic. As ice melts, species are losing
their habitat, and ecosystems are being altered.
 Energy Supply: Role of Energy in the Development of Human Civilization,
Emissions from Energy Generation, and the Role of Energy in Current
Climate Change

• Energy has been a central force in the development of human civilization.

• From the earliest use of fire to the complex global energy systems of today, the
way humanity generates, consumes, and manages energy has shaped societies,
economies, and the environment.

• The role of energy in both development and climate change is significant, as the
sources of energy we rely on have direct implications for environmental
sustainability.
The Role of Energy in the Development of Human Civilization
• Energy has been a driving force in the progress of human societies throughout history, providing the
means for growth, technological advancements, and social change.

• A. Early Use of Energy: Fire and Biomass

• The earliest form of energy use by humans was the use of fire for warmth, cooking, and protection. As
humans learned to control fire, it allowed them to expand their diets, improve health, and survive in a
variety of climates. Early humans relied on biomass (wood, animal fats) as an energy source.

• B. Agricultural Revolution and Energy

• With the Agricultural Revolution, humans began to use energy for farming, from animal labor
(plows, mills) to irrigation systems. This allowed for larger-scale food production and more stable,
growing populations. The harnessing of wind and water energy through the development of mills
further expanded energy use during this period.
Cont..
• C. Industrial Revolution and Fossil Fuels

• The Industrial Revolution (late 18th to early 19th centuries) marked a turning point, as energy
demands surged with new technologies like the steam engine. Fossil fuels—coal, oil, and natural
gas—became dominant sources of energy during this time, enabling rapid industrialization,
transportation, and urbanization.

• Coal powered steam engines for manufacturing and transportation.

• Oil revolutionized the automobile industry and fueled power generation.

• Natural gas became an increasingly important fuel for heating, cooking, and electricity
generation.
• This era also saw the development of electricity, initially powered by coal and later by oil and
natural gas, which changed everything from lighting homes to the development of technology that
would power the modern world.
Cont..
• D. Modern Energy Systems and Globalization

• In the 20th and 21st centuries, energy systems became more complex with the rise of
electric grids, nuclear power, renewable energy (solar, wind, hydro), and the global oil
market. These developments have allowed for the expansion of economies, industrial
growth, transportation systems, and the globalization of trade.

• Energy is now central to almost all facets of modern life—transportation, communication,

manufacturing, agriculture, and healthcare—and is crucial for the functioning of modern
economies.
Emissions from Energy Generation

• Energy generation, especially from fossil fuels, is a significant source of greenhouse gas
emissions (GHGs) that contribute to global warming and climate change.

• A. Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Fossil Fuels

• The main sources of energy-related emissions are:
• Coal: When burned, coal releases large amounts of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), sulfur
dioxide (SO2), and other pollutants. Coal-fired power plants are among the largest emitters of
CO2 globally.
• Oil: Burning oil products like gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel releases CO2 and other pollutants. The
transportation sector is heavily dependent on oil and is responsible for a large portion of energy-
related emissions.
• Natural Gas: Although burning natural gas produces less CO2 than coal or oil, it still releases
significant amounts of carbon and other pollutants. Additionally, methane, a potent greenhouse gas,
can leak during extraction, transportation, and distribution.
 Non-Fossil Energy Sources
• While fossil fuels are the largest contributors to emissions, non-fossil energy sources also have environmental impacts:

• Nuclear Energy: Nuclear power generation produces minimal direct CO2 emissions, but it does generate radioactive waste,

and there are concerns about nuclear accidents and the long-term storage of waste.

• Biomass: Biomass energy can reduce fossil fuel dependence, but it is not without environmental impacts. When biomass is

burned, it releases CO2, although the net impact depends on whether the biomass is sourced sustainably and whether the

carbon is reabsorbed by the growing plants.

• Hydroelectric Power: Hydropower is considered a clean energy source, but large-scale hydroelectric plants can have

significant ecological and social impacts, including habitat destruction, changes in water quality, and displacement of

communities. It also produces methane emissions from decaying organic material in flooded areas.

• Renewable Energy: Solar, wind, and geothermal power have negligible emissions during operation. However, there are

emissions associated with their manufacturing, installation, and maintenance, though these are much lower compared to fossil

fuel-based energy sources.

The Role of Energy in Current Climate Change
• Energy consumption, particularly from the burning of fossil fuels, is the largest driver of climate change
today. The emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and other greenhouse gases into the
atmosphere trap heat, leading to a warming of the Earth and shifts in weather patterns.

• A. Carbon Footprint of Energy Consumption

• Global Emissions: Approximately 70% of global greenhouse gas emissions come from the energy
sector, with the largest share coming from the electricity and heat production industry (coal, oil, and
natural gas). The transportation sector (cars, trucks, airplanes) is the second-largest emitter, largely
dependent on fossil fuels.

• Energy Demand Growth: As the world population grows and developing nations industrialize, the
demand for energy rises. This means that the way energy is generated will have a significant impact on
future emissions levels. If energy generation continues to rely on fossil fuels, emissions will continue to
rise, exacerbating climate change.
 Energy Transition and Climate Mitigation
• To limit the impacts of climate change, a transition to cleaner, renewable energy sources is critical. This transition involves several key

aspects:

• Decarbonizing the Energy Sector: Shifting from fossil fuels to renewables (solar, wind, hydro, geothermal) and nuclear energy can

dramatically reduce CO2 emissions. The shift also involves improving energy efficiency, reducing energy consumption, and implementing

carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies.

• Energy Storage and Smart Grids: The development of advanced energy storage technologies (such as batteries) and smart grids can

address the intermittency of renewable energy sources like solar and wind, allowing for a reliable and sustainable energy system.

• Electrification of Transportation: Shifting to electric vehicles (EVs) powered by renewable energy can reduce emissions from the

transportation sector, one of the largest sources of fossil fuel use.

• Energy Access and Equity: Providing clean energy access to developing regions is critical for global development and equity. It is

essential to ensure that energy transitions are just and equitable, especially for the global poor who depend on affordable energy for basic

needs.
END