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Mineral Wealth
THE participation ‫ شرکت‬of 300 delegates ‫نمائندے‬, including guests from
overseas, in the two-day mineral summit ‫ سربراہی اجالس‬in Islamabad has
renewed ‫ از سر نو‬hopes of growing foreign interest in Pakistan’s mineral sector,
which remains mostly ‫ زیادہ تر‬unexplored due to lack ‫ کمی‬of financing and

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access to technology.

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Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has highlighted mineral resources as the
lynchpin ‫ کلیدی کردار‬of the nation’s economic revival ‫احیاء‬. Addressing the
Pakistan Minerals Investment Forum, he went on to state that the country’s
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mineral wealth ‘worth trillions of dollars’ could free its economy from
perpetual ‫ دائمی‬dependency on frequent ‫ بار بار‬bailouts ‫ مالی مدد‬from global
lenders.
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Indeed, the recent announcement at the forum of new, significant ‫اہم‬

discoveries of hydrocarbons in KP and gold-copper deposits in Balochistan
underscores ‫ واضح کرتا ہے‬the presence ‫ موجودگی‬of vast ‫ وسیع‬reserves of natural
22

resources in the country waiting to be tapped.

However, the conversion of these deposits into mines will not happen
03

overnight ‫ راتوں رات‬in spite of ‫ کے باوجود‬a discernible international interest in the

country’s mineral sector due to the new discoveries and the settlement ‫ تصفیہ‬of
the Reko Diq dispute leading to its revival ‫احیاء‬. Investors ‫ سرمایہ کار‬would want
to first carry out studies to determine ‫ طے کرنا‬the size of the deposits and
economic viability ‫ پائیداری‬of undertaking ‫ کام‬exploration before committing
funds rather than relying ‫ انحصار کرنا‬on the optimistic ‫ پر امید‬estimates ‫ تخمینے‬of
Pakistan’s government.

The policymakers must also avoid rushing into flawed ‫ ناقص‬agreements just to
woo investment in this critical ‫ اہم‬sector. The agreements should be
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transparent ‫ شفاف‬and based on assessment ‫ تجزیہ‬of the true value of the

deposits. If the country is to truly ‫ واقعی‬benefit from its mineral wealth, it is also
crucial ‫اہم‬ to ensure ‫یقین دالنا‬ that the policy and subsequent ‫بعد کے‬
contracts ‫ معاہدے‬under it cover the entire minerals’ value chain: the extraction of
minerals to local processing and refining for production of the finished
products for export.

We have seen the investors ‫ سرمایہ کار‬take out minerals from Saindak in raw

8
form, with virtually ‫ عملی طور پر‬little to no benefit to the country. The Reko Diq

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dispute also had its genesis in such a defective ‫ خراب‬agreement. While the
renewed ‫ از سر نو‬focus on the mineral sector is welcome, we should not forget
the reality that this wealth is found in the two provinces reeling ‫ ہل جانا‬under
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growing militancy and insurgency ‫بغاوت‬. Though the army chief promised the
forum participants robust ‫ مضبوط‬security for investors ‫سرمایہ کار‬, practical ‫عملی‬
measures need to be taken to allay their concerns ‫ خدشات‬in Balochistan.
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Moreover ‫مزید‬, it must be ensured ‫ یقینی بنایا‬that the people of Balochistan and
KP have first priority ‫ ترجیح‬in jobs, and that the proceeds from these projects
are spent on the welfare ‫ بہبود‬of the people. The Baloch unrest ‫ بدامنی‬is
22

partly ‫ جزوی طور پر‬the result of the belief that the province’s resources are being
used for the rest of the country rather than for Balochistan’s economic
development. This perception ‫ تاثر‬will not go away ‫ چلے جانا‬unless the financial
03

benefits accruing from these projects are directed for the development of the
province and its population.

Senate Shortfalls
THE latest Citizens’ Report by Pildat on the performance of the Senate of
Pakistan is a sobering ‫سنجیدہ بنانے واال‬ account of parliamentary
dysfunction ‫ ناکارگی‬during the 2024-25 legislative year. While the upper house
met its constitutional requirement by holding 65 sittings and in that time
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passing 51 bills, the report reveals troubling ‫ پریشان کن‬signs of procedural

decay ‫بگاڑ‬, declining productivity, and executive ‫ ایگزیکٹو‬overreach ‫حد سے تجاوز‬.
The executive ‫’ایگزیکٹو‬s growing reliance ‫ انحصار‬on ordinances stands out ‫نمایاں‬
as the most disturbing trend ‫رجحان‬. Sixteen ordinances were laid before the
Senate — a 1,500pc increase from the previous year — effectively ‫مؤثر طریقے سے‬
bypassing debate and oversight ‫نظرثانی‬. These were introduced even as private
members’ legislative output declined ‫ انکار کیا‬by 63.8pc, a clear indicator of

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shrinking ‫ سکڑنا‬space for independent or opposition voices. Meanwhile, the
passage of the controversial ‫ متنازع‬26th Constitutional Amendment — marred

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by reports of coerced ‫ مجبور کیا‬absences and disputed votes — further
eroded ‫ ختم ہونا‬confidence in the chamber’s integrity ‫دیانتداری‬. Operationally,
while the Senate increased its sittings, total working hours fell by over 20pc,
57
making 2024-25 the least productive ‫ پیداواری‬year in six years. Quorum issues
persisted ‫جاری رہا‬, with 16 sittings adjourned due to low attendance. The Leader
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of the House, Senator Ishaq Dar, attended just 28pc of sessions, the lowest in
recent history. In contrast ‫تضاد‬, the Leader of the Opposition, Senator Shibli
Faraz, recorded 80pc attendance and emerged ‫ ظاہر ہوا‬as the most vocal
senator. Financial accountability ‫ جوابدہی‬also faltered. The Senate’s total budget
22

rose by 43.3pc to over Rs7bn, with per-member expenditure climbing to

Rs85.2m — a 68.5pc spike ‫ اچانک اضافہ‬from the previous year.
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A particularly alarming ‫ تشویشناک‬concern is the continued absence of

representation for KP. Eleven Senate seats from the province remain vacant
due to a standoff between the PTI-led provincial government and federal
authorities over oath-taking on reserved seats. The Election Commission’s
allocation of these seats to opposition parties was rejected by the KP
government, which refused to administer oaths, resulting in indefinite ‫غیر معینہ‬
delays to the elections. To restore credibility ‫اعتبار‬, Pildat has urged ‫زور دیا‬
reforms on multiple fronts: reducing the use of ordinances, ensuring ‫یقینی بنانا‬
timely ‫ بروقت‬filling of vacant seats, improving attendance of key officeholders,
enforcing quorum rules, and strengthening the role of Senate committees in
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legislative oversight ‫نظرثانی‬. What is at stake is more than legislative efficiency;

it is the health of the democratic process itself. If these recommendations are
ignored, the Senate risks sliding ‫ پھسلنا‬into irrelevance ‫غیر متعلقہ‬.

Crypto Coup ‫تختہ پلٹ‬

8
IT is quite the coup ‫تختہ پلٹ‬. One of the most recognisable ‫ پہچاننے کے قابل‬names

99
in the global cryptocurrency ‫ کرپٹو کرنسی‬market has been roped in by the finance
ministry to serve as ‘strategic adviser’ to the Pakistan Crypto Council,
established to oversee ‫ نگرانی کرنا‬and promote ‫ فروغ دینا‬wider adoption ‫ اپنانا‬of
57
blockchain technology and digital assets ‫ وسائل‬within the country. Changpeng
Zhao, or CZ as he is commonly known, is not only one of the richest persons in
the world, thanks to early investments in cryptocurrencies, he is also the co-
74

founder of popular trading platform Binance, the largest

cryptocurrency ‫ کرپٹو کرنسی‬trading exchange by volume in the world today. Mr
Zhao is also intimately aware of the legal issues surrounding the crypto trade,
22

thanks to his experiences as former CEO of Binance. That makes him a

valuable ‫ قیمتی‬ally ‫ حلیف‬for policymakers in Pakistan, who are gearing to go big
on crypto and related technologies. “With Zhao onboard, we are
03

accelerating ‫ تیز کرنا‬our vision to make Pakistan a regional ‫ عالقائی‬powerhouse

for Web3, digital finance, and blockchain-driven growth,” the finance minister
said.

There is no doubt that Mr Zhao’s onboarding will invite the right kind of interest
from around the world. However, it is also hoped that his opinions and advice
will be given careful consideration. After all, regulators worldwide have been
quite suspicious ‫ مشکوک‬of the crypto trade, and for many good reasons. Even in
Pakistan, Binance had, till recently, been operating in a regulatory ‫ ضابطہ‬grey
area, with the State Bank discouraging citizens from engaging in crypto trading
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and refusing to provide assistance in case they encountered ‫ سامنا کیا‬fraudulent

activity. Local investors ‫ سرمایہ کار‬will obviously feel much more confident
knowing that the founder of Binance is now on board, but the aim should be to
look at the bigger picture. Pakistan can emerge ‫ ابھرنا‬as a hub for future growth
and innovation ‫ جدت‬in these technologies if it plays its cards right. But to do
that, it must overcome ‫ قابو پانا‬many regulatory ‫ ضابطہ‬challenges and
limitations.

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Navigating Trade Barriers
‫رکاوٹیں‬
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03

Ali Tauqeer Sheikh

IN today’s complex ‫ پیچیدہ‬global trade environment, Pakistan finds itself
navigating between two competing ‫ مقابلہ‬demands: the Trump administration’s
protectionist tariffs ‫ محصوالت‬and the European Union’s emerging Carbon Border
Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). While these trade measures emerge ‫ابھرنا‬
from different motivations, they highlight similar structural ‫ ساختی‬weaknesses
in Pakistan’s trade framework that demand urgent attention ‫توجہ‬.
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As Pakistan grapples ‫ جھگڑنا‬with the dual pressures of economic stability and

climate vulnerability ‫کمزوری‬, an often-overlooked ‫ نظرانداز‬dimension ‫ پہلو‬deserves
urgent attention ‫توجہ‬: how trade barriers ‫ رکاوٹیں‬impact ‫ اثر‬our ability to meet
climate commitments ‫وعدے‬. The tariffs ‫ محصوالت‬announced by the Trump
administration have made it imperative ‫ الزمی‬for Pakistan to examine the
underlying ‫پوشیدہ‬ factors driving these barriers ‫رکاوٹیں‬, quantify their
potential ‫ ممکنہ‬impact ‫اثر‬, and adopt a strategic roadmap ‫ الئحہ عمل‬to not only

8
mitigate ‫ کمی کرنا‬these challenges but transform them into competitive
advantages.

99
Structural ‫ ساختی‬factors behind US trade barriers ‫رکاوٹیں‬

The Trump administration’s approach to trade with Pakistan reflects

57
concerns ‫ خدشات‬about several longstanding ‫ دیرینہ‬structural ‫ ساختی‬issues
evident ‫ واضح‬in the relationship. According to the National Trade Estimate Rep­‐
ort on Foreign Trade Barriers ‫( رکاوٹیں‬NTE Report), Pakistan maintains an
74

average Most-Favoured ‫پسندیدہ‬-Nation appli­­ed tariff ‫ ٹیرف‬rate of 10.3 per

cent ‫سینٹ‬, with agricultural pro­ducts facing even higher rates at 13pc. This
protectionist framework runs counter ‫ مقابلہ‬to the administration’s focus on
22

reciprocity in trade relations.

The administration has targeted Pakistan’s use of statutory ‫قانونی‬

03

regulatory ‫ ضابطہ‬orders that provide sector-specific exemptions ‫ چھوٹ‬and

protections. These SROs, often issued without stakeholder consultations, cre­­‐
ate an unpredictable ‫ غیر متوقع‬business environment that disadvantages US
exporters. Despite ‫ باوجود‬pledges ‫ وعدے‬to limit SROs to genuine ‫حقیقی‬
emergencies ‫ ہنگامی حاالت‬under previous IMF programmes, their continued
issuance sig­­nals a resistance ‫ مزاحمت‬to transparent ‫ شفاف‬trade practices.

Both the US and EU demand similar reforms to Pakistan’s trade framework.

Administrative barriers ‫ رکاوٹیں‬are equally concerning ‫ متعلقہ‬for the US as

Pakistan’s customs valuation lacks uniformity ‫ — یکسانیت‬the officials often
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using minimum values rather than declared transaction values. Requirements

mandating ‫ الزم بنانا‬physical documentation within shipping containers create
compliance ‫ تعمیل‬burdens that contradict modern electronic commerce
practices.

Intellectual ‫ ذہین‬property protection remains another crucial ‫ اہم‬concern. These

structural ‫ ساختی‬weaknesses have provided the US with a justification ‫ جواز‬for
imposing ‫ نافذ کرنا‬tariffs ‫محصوالت‬, framed as responses to unfair ‫ غیر منصفانہ‬trade

8
practices rather than arbitrary ‫ من مانی‬restrictions.

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The same structural ‫ ساختی‬limitations identified by the NTE Report will likely
impede ‫ روکنا‬Pakistan’s ability to comply ‫ عمل کرنا‬with the EU’s CBAM. These will
initially apply to carbon-intensive goods, including cement, iron and steel,
57
aluminium, fertilisers, electricity, and hydrogen, imposing ‫ نافذ کرنا‬stringent ‫سخت‬
reporting and verification requirements regarding the carbon content ‫ مطمئن‬of
74
imports.

Pakistan’s difficulties with customs procedures ‫طریقہ کار‬ and digital

infrastructure create a challenging environment for implementing the carbon
22

accounting ‫ حساب کتاب‬required under CBAM. The reported “lack ‫ کمی‬of

uniformity ‫ یکسانیت‬in customs valuation” will only be exacerbated ‫شدت پیدا کی‬
when customs authorities must additionally verify carbon content ‫مطمئن‬
03

documentation.

Digital limitations pose another shared barrier. The NTE Report notes
Pakistan’s data localisation requirements and limitations on cross-border data
flows through the Personal Data Protection Act. CBAM compliance ‫تعمیل‬
necessitates ‫ ضرورت پیدا کرنا‬strong digital systems for tracking ‫ سراغ لگانا‬carbon
throughout production processes and supply chains. The frequency ‫ تعدد‬with
which internet services are suspended further undermines ‫ کمزور کرنا‬the digital
infrastructure needed for modern trade compliance ‫تعمیل‬.
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Investment restrictions, including equity caps and repatriation ‫وطن واپسی‬

hurdles ‫رکاوٹیں‬, similarly hinder ‫ رکاوٹ ڈالنا‬Pakis­tan’s ability to attract the foreign
capital needed to modernise industries to meet both US trade expectations and
EU carbon requirements. The reported contract ‫ معاہدہ‬enforcement difficulties
further discourage ‫ حوصلہ شکنی کرنا‬long-term international partnerships.

Divergent ‫ مختلف‬motivations, convergent requirements

8
While the Trump administration and the EU operate from fundamentally
different policy objectives ‫مقاصد‬, their impact ‫ اثر‬on Pakistan creates a

99
convergent set of reform pressures. The US administration’s focus on
economic nationalism and reciprocity shares little philosophical ground with
the EU’s climate-centred approach. However, both demand similar
57
underlying ‫ پوشیدہ‬reforms to Pakistan’s trade framework.

While the US focuses on market access and economic competitiveness ‫مسابقت‬,

74

CBAM emerges ‫ سامنے آتا ہے‬as a climate policy tool to prevent carbon leakage
and ensure ‫یقین دالنا‬ imports reflect appropriate ‫مناسب‬ carbon pricing.
Despite ‫ باوجود‬these divergent ‫ مختلف‬motivations, both systems ultimately
22

require Pakistan to increase transparency ‫شفافیت‬, modernise customs

procedures ‫طریقہ کار‬, strengthen rule of law, improve ‫بہتر بنانا‬ digital
infrastructure, and create more predictable ‫ قابل پیش گوئی‬regulatory ‫ضابطہ‬
03

environments.

This convergence ‫ ہم آہنگی‬creates a potential ‫ ممکنہ‬silver lining: reforms

undertaken ‫ کیا گیا‬to address US concerns ‫ خدشات‬could simultaneously ‫بیک وقت‬
prepare Pakistan for CBAM compliance ‫تعمیل‬. For instance, addressing the
reported weaknesses in customs procedures ‫ طریقہ کار‬would benefit both
relationships. Similarly, creating a more transparent ‫ شفاف‬system for
regulatory ‫ ضابطہ‬orders would improve ‫ بہتر بنانا‬both US trade relations and
provide the predictability needed for EU carbon reporting.

Expanding global challenge

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The dual pressure from US tariffs ‫ محصوالت‬and EU carbon measures likely

represents just the beginning of a broader global shift ‫تبدیلی‬. Some major
economies are exploring or implementing similar carbon border measures.
Even countries without explicit ‫ واضح‬carbon border taxes are increasingly
incorporating ‫ شامل کرنا‬climate considerations into trade agreements and
policies. These emerging systems create a complex ‫ پیچیدہ‬matrix ‫ سانچہ‬of

8
compliance ‫ تعمیل‬requirements for Pakistan.

99
Envisioning Green CPEC Framework

China faces similar pressures from US tariffs ‫ محصوالت‬and European carbon

border measures, creating potential ‫ ممکنہ‬for cooperation on compliance ‫تعمیل‬
57
strategies. CPEC could evolve ‫ترقی کرنا‬ to incorporate ‫شامل کرنا‬ green
infrastructure and low-carbon manufacturing capabilities that would help
74
Pakistani exports meet emerging standards.

CPEC presents a strategic opportunity to address both trade challenges

through a Green CPEC Framework with three components: a) Low-Carbon
22

Industrial Zones prioritising renewable ‫ قابل تجدید‬energy in CPEC Special ‫خاص‬

Economic Zones, b) Supply chain integration ‫ انضمام‬developing joint Pakistan-
China standards for carbon accounting ‫حساب کتاب‬, and c) Technology transfer
03

focusing on clean technology in future CPEC agreements.

From barriers ‫ رکاوٹیں‬to bridges

Ultimately, Pakistan’s response to these dual pressures will determine ‫طے کرنا‬
whether they represent insurmountable ‫ ناقابل شکست‬barriers ‫ رکاوٹیں‬or catalysts
for necessary reform. By recognising the convergent nature of these
seemingly ‫ بظاہر‬disparate ‫ مختلف‬trade measures, Pakistan can pursue ‫پیچھا کرنا‬
strategic reforms that strengthen its position in the evolving ‫ ترقی پذیر‬global
trade architecture. The arbitrarily calculated barriers ‫ رکاوٹیں‬represent a
stringent ‫ سخت‬but straightforward ‫ سیدھا‬list of complaints that Pakistan can
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address with speed, if the strategic objective ‫ مقصد‬is to regain ‫دوبارہ حاصل کرنا‬
lost trading space, and fill the void ‫ خالی‬created by even higher tariffs ‫محصوالت‬
on regional ‫ عالقائی‬competitors.

The writer is a climate change and sustainable ‫ قابل پائیدار‬development expert.

Tariff ‫ ٹیرف‬Crossfire

8
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74

Khurram Husain
22

BY all accounts a world is ending and we don’t know what is going to replace it.
For Pakistan this is particularly troubling ‫ پریشان کن‬because despite ‫ باوجود‬what
we like to tell ourselves, this country has always been deeply dependent ‫انحصار‬
03

on this world to keep itself afloat ‫تیرتا ہوا‬.

Rarely ‫ شاذ و نادر‬has the bigger picture mattered more than it does now. To
focus only on the short-term impacts would be a mistake. The bigger picture
here is brutal ‫ سفاک‬in its simplicity ‫سادگی‬, and critical ‫ اہم‬in its importance. For
almost half a century now, Pakistan has been kept afloat ‫ تیرتا ہوا‬as a country
via bailouts ‫ مالی مدد‬arranged by the institutions of a multilateral ‫کثیر الجہتی‬
world order, chief among them the IMF, followed by the World Bank. The sun is
now setting on this world. The day is coming when Pakistan runs into one of its
traditional ‫ روایتی‬balance of payments crises and runs out ‫ ختم ہونا‬of foreign
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exchange reserves, like it has on more than a dozen occasions over the past
four or five decades, and there is nobody around to come to its rescue.

As of this writing, the trade war between the United States and China is
escalating ‫ بڑھنا‬with dizzying ‫ چکرا دینے واال‬speed. Within hours both these
countries announced massive ‫ بڑا‬tariffs ‫ محصوالت‬against each other’s products,
and another round of tariffs ‫ محصوالت‬was expected from the European Union.
Something highly ‫ بہت زیادہ‬unusual ‫ غیر معمولی‬was happening in the financial

8
markets too, as stock and bond markets both started to collapse ‫زوال‬

99
simultaneously ‫بیک وقت‬. Usually these two move in opposite directions,
because money pulled out ‫نکاال‬ of one goes into the other. A
simultaneous ‫ بیک وقت‬plunge ‫ گراوٹ‬in both shows far deeper chaos ‫انتشار‬
gripping ‫ گرفت‬world markets.
57
Here are some things to note in order to get a handle on a fast-moving
74
situation.

The bigger picture here is brutal ‫ سفاک‬in its simplicity ‫سادگی‬, and critical ‫ اہم‬in its
importance.
22

First, the tariffs ‫ محصوالت‬are not the result of lobbying ‫ البنگ‬by industry,
agriculture or any other powerful vested ‫ ذاتی‬interest in America, and they are
03

almost universally denounced by the community of economists in American

academia ‫علمی حلقے‬. You will be hard-pressed to find any voice outside of the
Trump administration which thinks these tariffs ‫ محصوالت‬are a good idea.

This is important, because it tells us that this is a madman’s gambit. All earlier
tariffs ‫محصوالت‬, including those brought by the famous Smoot-Hawley Act in
1930, came into being because of fierce ‫ سخت‬industry lobbying ‫ البنگ‬for
protection. This time it’s the opposite. Industry, financial markets and
academia ‫ علمی حلقے‬are united in denouncing these tariffs ‫ محصوالت‬as
reckless ‫الپرواہ‬. And with their actions, the markets are signaling their
displeasure. The sell-offs in the stock and bond markets, the upgrading of the
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likelihood of a global recession ‫کساد بازاری‬, the closure ‫ بندش‬of factories and
layoffs of workers, all are expressions of deep disapproval ‫ ناپسندیدگی‬and
apprehension regarding the impact ‫ اثر‬these tariffs ‫ محصوالت‬are likely to have.

Second, if these tariffs ‫محصوالت‬, and the resultant ‫ نتیجہ خیز‬trade war, are being
pushed against the will of all-powerful vested ‫ ذاتی‬interests in America, then
what exactly is the big idea here? What do the architects of this policy hope to
achieve?

8
There is a paper titled ‘A User’s Guide to Restructuring ‫ تشکیل نو‬the Global

99
Trading System’ written by a relatively ‫ نسبتًا‬unknown individual by the name of
Stephen Miran. Published in November 2024, it lays all this out. Miran was
subsequently ‫ بعد میں‬picked by Trump to be the chairman of the President’s
57
Council of Economic Advisors and whereas he disagrees with the pace ‫رفتار‬
and intensity ‫ شدت‬with which Trump is pursuing ‫ تعاقب‬the tariffs ‫محصوالت‬, he
74
lays out clearly in the paper why the policy is necessary.

In a nutshell ‫مختصرًا‬, Miran argues that America is carrying a huge ‫ بڑا‬burden in

providing a security umbrella to the world as well as its reserve asset ‫اثاثہ‬, the
22

US dollar. While the US had a dominant ‫ غالب‬position in the world economy

(back in the 1960s its share of global GDP was 40 per cent ‫سینٹ‬, he says,
which has now shrunk ‫ سکڑ گیا‬to 26pc), the dollar as reserve currency helped
03

America because they could print any amount of money to pay for their bills.
But today as the rest of the world has powered on and America’s share of
global trade as well as global GDP has shrunk ‫سکڑ گیا‬, the dollar as reserve
asset ‫ اثاثہ‬has become a burden because other countries can devalue their
currencies to cheapen their products in global markets but the US cannot.

To arrest this trend ‫رجحان‬, the US can either take monetary measures (like
attaching user fees to dollars held as reserves by other countries) or it can take
trade measures through tariffs ‫محصوالت‬. He advocates for the latter ‫مؤخر‬,
argues this is in opposition to what industry and academia ‫ علمی حلقے‬wish, that
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it will be accompanied ‫ ساتھ دیا گیا‬by a short-term asset ‫ اثاثہ‬price collapse ‫زوال‬,
but eventually ‫ آخر کار‬could bring America to a position where it can
regain ‫ دوبارہ حاصل کرنا‬some of the ground it has lost to other countries.

Most importantly ‫اہم‬, he argues for intertwining security and trade relations.
Since America provides the security and the reserve asset ‫ اثاثہ‬which
underpins ‫ بنیاد فراہم کرنا‬the global trade system, it is in a position to use both to
arrest the erosion ‫ کٹاؤ‬of its own position within this world. “Countries that want

8
to be inside the defense umbrella must also be inside the fair trade umbrella,”

99
he argues.

“Such a tool can be used to pressure other nations to join our tariffs ‫محصوالت‬
against China, creating a multilateral ‫کثیر الجہتی‬ approach toward
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tariffs ‫محصوالت‬. Forced to choose between facing a tariff ‫ ٹیرف‬on their exports
to the American consumer or applying tariffs ‫ محصوالت‬to their imports from
China, which will they choose? … The attempt to create a global tariff ‫ ٹیرف‬wall
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around China would increase the pressure on China to reform its economic
system.”
22

The key takeaway here is that the tariffs ‫ محصوالت‬are not about to
go away ‫ چلے جانا‬soon, that the institutions which bailed Pakistan out
historically could be on their way to disappearing ‫غائب ہونا‬, and that Pakistan
03

could, in the near future, be forced to choose between the US and China. This
calls for a comprehensive ‫ جامع‬revamp ‫ ازسر نو‬of our economic strategy
altogether ‫مکمل طور پر‬. The new world dawning before us will admit neither
import substitution ‫ متبادل‬orthodoxies nor faith in liberalisation and export-
driven growth.

The writer is a business and economy journalist.

Nether Regions
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8
F.S. Aijazuddin

99
HISTORY has been in love with Lahore since forever. It was not its only admirer.
The Mughals remained enamoured ‫ دلکش‬of it. Akbar made it the capital of his
kingdom ‫ بادشاہت‬for 14 years. Jahangir chose to be buried within sight of it.
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Shah Jahan embellished ‫ سجایا گیا‬its fort. Aurangzeb commissioned a
magnificent mosque opposite the fort.
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Under the Sikh maharaja Ranjit Singh, Lahore became the fulcrum of his Sikh
empire ‫سلطنت‬. It remained so until 1849 when the East India Company
possessed it. From then, it reverted to its traditional ‫روایتی‬ role,
22

subordinate ‫ ماتحت‬to Delhi.

Today, the capital of the Sharifs oscillates between Model Town (originally
nam­ed Ideal Town) and Ideal Islamabad. Sindh stands ‫ کھڑا ہے‬forfeit ‫ ضبط کرنا‬to
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the successor ‫ جانشین‬of the Tal­pu­­rs. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa is a craggy eminence

with feudal ‫ جاگیردارانہ‬loyalties. Balochistan is a crucible of fermenting
dissent ‫اختالف‬. The provin­ces of Pakistan are beginning to look like a cracked
mirror image of the creaking USA.

No man in modern history has changed the world’s rotation as suddenly or as

capriciously as President Donald Trump has. He has reversed the globe’s orbit,
from anticlo­ckwise to clockwise. To Trump, this makes sense. The sun should
rise in the west and set in the east, at least for the next four years.

Can Pakistan expect ‫ توقع کرنا‬any relief from Trump?

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His imposition of tariffs ‫ محصوالت‬is a message to countries worldwide to

recalibrate their economies according to his reordered chronometer. To him,
globalisation is a dirty word, and economic interdependence a synonym for
weakness.

He sees no advantage to the US in Russia supplying cheap gas to Europe, or

French companies buying components from Germ­any for assembly in France.

8
Trump must have smirked when his protégé Nigel Fara­­ge of the UK’s Reform

99
Party brextricated Great Britain from the EU. The anthem in Brussels —
Beethoven’s Ode to Joy — should be replaced by Sauve qui peut (every man for
himself).
57
In the hastily ‫ عجلت میں‬constructed temple ‫ مندر‬in which Trump sits as a
presiding deity, a different mantra ‫ منتر‬is being chanted. Globa­lisa­tion is being
replaced by transactionalism. It is economic narcissism ‫ خود پسندی‬at its best, or
74

diplomatic ‫ سفارتی‬worst.

Countries have already begun sending their emissaries to Washington to

22

genuflect before the almighty dollar. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio is

keeping count. He has announced that at least 50 countries have contacted the
US to negotiate relief.
03

Pakistan has been quicker than most. On April 7, our Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar
discussed with Mr Rubio “tariffs ‫محصوالت‬, trade relations, immigration and
prospects ‫ امکانات‬for enga­ge
­ ment on critical ‫ اہم‬minerals”. The Trump
administration has imposed a 29pc tariff ‫ ٹیرف‬on Pakistan. Dar hoped for a
reduction to 10pc.

After their call, the State Department and Pakistan’s foreign ministry issued
separate statements. The State Department said: “They (Rubio and Dar)
discussed US reciprocal ‫ باہمی‬tariffs ‫ محصوالت‬on Pakistan and how to make
progress toward a fair and balanced trade relationship”.
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“The Secretary raised prospects ‫ امکانات‬for engagement ‫ مصروفیت‬on critical ‫اہم‬

minerals and expressed interest in expanding commercial opportunities for US
companies.” The foreign ministry added that Rubio “reciprocated ‫ جواب دیا‬the
desire to collaborate ‫ تعاون کرنا‬with Pakistan in trade and investment in various
sectors, especially critical ‫ اہم‬minerals.”

These critical ‫ اہم‬minerals are the new weapons of commerce. It is well-known

8
that the Trump administration wants to strike ‫ حملہ‬a deal with Ukraine over

99
critical ‫ اہم‬minerals as part of the peace settlement ‫ تصفیہ‬between Rus­sia and
Ukraine. Less publicly ‫عوامی طور پر‬, Washington is discussing
simultaneously ‫ بیک وقت‬with the Con­go critical ‫ اہم‬mineral partnerships to “help
57
end a conflict ‫ تنازعہ‬raging ‫ شدید‬in the African country’s east”. Pe­­ace on ear­th is
being re­­placed by peace for earth.

During the Rubio-Dar call, Rubio “emphasised ‫ زور دیا‬the importance of

74

Pakistan’s cooperation with the US on law en­­f­orcement and addr­ess­ing illegal

immigratio­n”. Dar countered that Pak­istan had already of­­fe­red the head of Mo­­‐
22

h­ammad Sharif­ullah, whom the US wanted for an attack on its

troops ‫ فوجی دستے‬fleeing from Kabul airport in 2021.

Can Pakistan expect ‫ توقع کرنا‬any relief from Trump’s administration? The trade
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imbalance ‫ عدم توازن‬between the two speaks for itself. In 2024, the US imported
from Pakistan $5.1bn, mainly textiles ‫کپڑے‬, leather goods, and furniture. The US
exports to Pakistan included $772m of raw cotton and goods, $406m of iron
and steel, and $141m of machinery. Pakistan (once a major cotton producer)
now imports raw cotton and textile ‫کپڑے کی صنعت‬-based goods from the US.

Some classicists see a similarity between Trump and the legendary ‫افسانوی‬
demon Hiran­yakshsa. He obtained immunity ‫ قوت مدافعت‬from the devas against
death by man or beast. He then stole the world and took it to the nether
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regions. It was retrieved ‫ واپس الیا گیا‬by Vishnu’s avatar Varaha who, being half-
man and half-beast, sidestepped the protective condition.

Many pray that some bipartisan ‫ دو طرفہ‬Ameri­can — half-Republican and half-

Democrat — will challenge Trump and rescue our hapless ‫ بے بس‬world from this
swirling disorder ‫بدنظمی‬.

The writer is an author.

8
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Geopolitics Of Dams 57
74
22

Khurram Abbas
RECENTLY China has announced construction of the world’s largest dam on
03

the Yarlung Tsangpo River in Tibet. India has criticised Beijing’s initiative ‫اقدام‬
due to potential ‫ ممکنہ‬downstream impacts. This isn’t the only dam in the region
facing opposition from a lower riparian ‫ دریا کنارے کا‬state. India is advancing
several large-scale ‫ پیمانہ‬hydropower projects, such as Tipaimukh dam on the
Barak River, which is opposed by Bangladesh. Ratle, Pakal Dul, Kishanganga,
Salma dam (also known as Afghanistan-India Friendship dam), Shahtoot dam
and Kamal Khan dam have also raised serious concerns ‫ خدشات‬of lower
riparian ‫ دریا کنارے کا‬states, ie Pakistan and Iran.
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As per international law, states can construct dams within their defined ‫واضح‬
territories to utilise water for various purposes. Construction of dams is an
internal matter of states to support economic development because they
provide a reliable ‫ قابل اعتماد‬source of hydroelectric power, which is a
renewable ‫ قابل تجدید‬and cost-effective ‫ مؤثر‬energy alternative ‫متبادل‬, crucial ‫اہم‬
for powering industries and households ‫گھرانے‬.

However, in this part of the world, construction of dams is a major source of

8
tensions between upper and lower riparian ‫ دریا کنارے کا‬states. Due to several

99
reasons, construction of dams is not viewed as a positive development; rather,
lower riparian ‫ دریا کنارے کا‬states question ‘geopolitical motives’ behind
construction of dams by upper riparian ‫ دریا کنارے کا‬states.
57
First, the historic ‫تاریخی‬ baggage ‫سامان‬ of armed clashes ‫تصادم‬ and
unresolved ‫ حل نہ ہوا‬boundary disputes have plagued ‫ پریشان‬bilateral ‫دو طرفہ‬
74
relationships. In case of Sino-India relations, strategic competition and border
dispute have added fuel to the fire. Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, Afghanistan
and Iran have similar border-related disputes and a history of troubled ‫پریشان‬
relations, which adds mistrust ‫ بداعتمادی‬with regard to the respective ‫متعلقہ‬
22

upper riparian ‫ دریا کنارے کا‬state’s intentions.

Pakistan is reluctant ‫ ہچکچانا‬to engage India for revision ‫ نظرثانی‬of the IWT.
03

For instance, Bangladesh and Pakistan do not view floods as the result of their
weak water infrastructure; rather, both countries often blame ‫ الزام‬India for
flooding ‫سیالب‬. Afghanistan, Iran, and Pakistan face growing concerns ‫خدشات‬
over water scarcity ‫کمی‬, worsened ‫ مزید بگڑنا‬by climate change, frequent ‫بار بار‬
droughts ‫خشک سالی‬, and rising populations, which have reduced water
availability for lower riparian ‫ دریا کنارے کا‬states.

Second, the absence of a comprehensive ‫ جامع‬water-sharing agreement

between upper and lower riparian ‫ دریا کنارے کا‬states is one of the major reasons
for the construction of these dams. This also allows upper riparian ‫دریا کنارے کا‬
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states more freedom to take unilateral ‫ یکطرفہ‬actions without consulting lower

riparian ‫ دریا کنارے کا‬states. Further, technological advancements and abundant
economic resources have increased the ability of upper riparian ‫دریا کنارے کا‬
states to construct big dams to control water flows. This is why upper
riparian ‫ دریا کنارے کا‬states reject calls to modify their projects to address
concerns ‫ خدشات‬of lower riparian ‫ دریا کنارے کا‬states.

Third, the changing world order and weakening of existing international

8
norms ‫ اصول‬has also ramped up the confidence of upper riparian ‫دریا کنارے کا‬

99
countries. Upper riparian ‫ دریا کنارے کا‬states view this evolving ‫ ترقی پذیر‬world
order as an opportunity for maximisation of their interests with least
accountability ‫ جوابدہی‬at global institutions. Thus ‫اس طرح‬, threats or attempts to
57
restrict ‫ محدود کرنا‬water flow to lower riparian ‫ دریا کنارے کا‬countries have
become a norm ‫ معیار‬in international relations. This trend ‫ رجحان‬could be
viewed in the Middle East, North Africa and South Asia.
74

The Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) is the only beacon of hope that has managed
water-sharing issues between Pakistan and India since 1960. Yet this treaty too
is currently under significant ‫ اہم‬duress. With India sending two formal notices
22

to Pakistan (in January 2023 and September 2024) seeking modifications to

the treaty, coupled with aggressive ‫ جارحانہ‬statements from Indian leadership
such as “blood and water cannot flow together,” concerns ‫ خدشات‬have been
03

expressed by Islam­abad that India mi­­ght attempt to take ‘unilateral ‫’یکطرفہ‬

steps or may divert ‫ موڑنا‬water flow from the western rivers allocated to
Pakistan.

Climate change and growing water scarcity ‫ کمی‬are two primary factors that
necessitate revision ‫نظرثانی‬ of the treaty. However, Islamabad is
reluctant ‫ ہچکچانا‬to engage with New Delhi for revision ‫ نظرثانی‬of the agreement.
Political instability, economic turmoil ‫ہنگامہ‬, weak water management of
existing resources and lack ‫کمی‬ of expertise ‫مہارت‬ in water-related
diplomacy ‫ سفارت کاری‬are key drivers of Pakistan’s reluctance ‫ ہچکچاہٹ‬to engage
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with India for revision ‫ نظرثانی‬of the IWT. On the contrary ‫برخالف‬, New Delhi
today is politically ‫سیاسی طور پر‬ confident, economically stable, and
diplomatically ‫ سفارتی‬assertive as compared to 1960. Hence, Islamabad does
not view it as the right time to renegotiate the treaty. Resultantly, Pakistan’s
reluctance ‫ ہچکچاہٹ‬and India’s push to revise the treaty have put the IWT’s
future in doubt.

Recent trends ‫ رجحانات‬suggest that dams with geopolitical motives will further

8
mar bilateral ‫ دو طرفہ‬relationships between upper and lower riparian ‫دریا کنارے کا‬

99
states. The 2023 Iran-Afghanistan clash, which killed one Taliban fighter and
two Iranian guards, shows water disputes can lead to border conflicts, if left
unresolved ‫حل نہ ہوا‬.
57
The writer is director of the India Study Centre at ISSI.
74
22
03