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Springer Atmospheric Sciences
Abdelwaheb Hannachi
Patterns
Identification
and Data Mining
in Weather and
Climate
Springer Atmospheric Sciences
The Springer Atmospheric Sciences series seeks to publish a broad portfolio
of scientific books, aiming at researchers, students, and everyone interested in
this interdisciplinary field. The series includes peer-reviewed monographs, edited
volumes, textbooks, and conference proceedings. It covers the entire area of
atmospheric sciences including, but not limited to, Meteorology, Climatology,
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Aeronomy, Planetary Science, and related
subjects.
Patterns Identification
and Data Mining in Weather
and Climate
Abdelwaheb Hannachi
Department of Meteorology, MISU
Stockholm University
Stockholm, Sweden
This Springer imprint is published by the registered company Springer Nature Switzerland AG
The registered company address is: Gewerbestrasse 11, 6330 Cham, Switzerland
To the memory of my father and mother who
taught me big principles, and to my little
family Houda, Badr, Zeid and Ahmed for
their patience.
Preface
Weather and climate is a fascinating system, which affects our daily lives, and is
closely interlinked with the environment, society and infrastructure. They have large
impact on our lives and activities, climate change being a typical example. It is a
high-dimensional highly complex system involving nonlinear interactions between
very many modes or degrees of freedom. This made weather and climate look
mysterious in ancient societies. Complex high-dimensional systems are difficult to
comprehend by our three-dimensional concept of the physical world. Humans have
sought out patterns in order to describe the working world around us. This task,
however, proved difficult and challenging.
In the climate context, the quest to identify patterns is driven by the desire to
find structures embedded in state space, which can lead to a better understanding
of the system dynamics, and eventually learn its behaviour and predict its future
state. With the advent of computers and observing systems, massive amounts of data
from the atmosphere and ocean are obtained, which beg for exploration and analysis.
Pattern identification in atmospheric science has a long history. It began in the 1920s
with Gilbert Walker, who identified the southern oscillation and the atmospheric
component of ENSO teleconnection, although the latter concept seems to have been
mentioned for the first time by Ångström in the mid-1930s. The correlation analysis
of Gilbert Walker used to identify the southern oscillation is akin to the iterative
algorithm used to compute empirical orthogonal functions. However, the earliest
known eigenanalysis in atmospheric science goes back to the time of the previous
USSR school by Obukhov and Bagrov around the late 1940s and early 1950s,
respectively. But it was Ed. Lorenz who coined the term ‘empirical orthogonal
functions’ (EOFs) in the mid-1950s. Since then, research on the topic has been
expanding, and a number of textbooks have been written, notably by Preisendorfer
in the late 1980s, followed by texts by Thiebaux, and von Storch and Zwiers about
a decade later, and another one by Jolliffe in the early 2000s. These texts did an
excellent job in presenting the theory and methods, particularly those related to
eigenvalue problems in meteorology and oceanography.
Weather and climate data analysis has witnessed a fast growth in the last few
decades both in terms of methods and applications. This growth was driven by the
vii
viii Preface
need to analyse and interpret the fast-growing volume of climate data using both
linear and nonlinear methods. In this book, I attempt to give an up-to-date text by
presenting linear and nonlinear methods that have been developed in the last two
decades, in addition to including conventional ones.
The text is composed of 17 chapters. Apart from the first two introductory and
setting up chapters, the remaining 15 chapters present the different methods used to
analyse spatio-temporal data from atmospheric science and oceanography. The EOF
method, a cornerstone of eigenvalue problems in meteorology and oceanography, is
presented in Chap. 3. The next four chapters present derivatives of EOFs, including
eigenvalue problems involved the identification of propagating features. A whole
chapter is devoted to predictability and predictable patterns, and another one on
multidimensional scaling, which discusses various dissimilarity measures used in
pattern identification, followed by a chapter on factor analysis. Nonlinear methods
of space-time pattern identification, with different perspectives, are presented in the
next three chapters. The previous chapters deal essentially with discrete gridded
data, as is usually the case, with no explicit discussion of the continuous case, such
as curves or surfaces. This topic is presented and discussed in the next chapter.
Another whole chapter is devoted to presenting and discussing the topic of coupled
patterns using conventional and newly developed approaches. A number of other
methods are not presented in the previous chapters. Those methods are collected
and presented in the penultimate chapter. Finally, and to take into account the recent
interest in automatic methods, the last chapter presents and discusses few commonly
used methods in machine learning. To make it as a stand-alone text, a number of
technical appendices are given at the end of the book.
This book can be used in teaching data analysis in atmospheric science, or
other topics such as advanced statistical methods in climate research. Apart from
Chap. 15, in the context of coupled patterns and regression, and Appendix C, I
did not discuss explicitly statistical modelling/inference. This topic of statistical
inference in climate science is covered in a number of other books reported in
the reference list. To help students and young researchers in the field explore the
topics, I have included a number of small exercises, with hints, embedded within
the different chapters, in addition to some basic skeleton Matlab codes for some
basic methods. Full Matlab codes can be obtained from the author upon request.
A list of software links is also given at the end of the book.
ix
Over the last few decades, we have amassed an enormous amount of weather and climate
data of which we have to make sense now. Pattern identification methods and modern data
mining approaches are essential in better understanding how the atmosphere and the climate
system works. These topics are not traditionally taught in meteorology programmes. This
book will prove a valuable source for students as well as active researchers interested
in these topics. The book provides a broad overview over modern pattern identification
methods and an introduction to machine learning.
– Christian Franzke, ICCP, Pusan National University
The topic of EOFs and associated pattern identification in space-time data sets has gone
through an extraordinary fast development, both in terms of new insights and the breadth
of applications. For this reason, we need a text approximately every 10 years to summarize
the fields. Older texts by, for instance, Jolliffe and Preisendorfer need to be succeeded by
an up-to-date new text. We welcome this new text by Abdel Hannachi who not only has a
deep insight in the field but has himself made several contributions to new developments in
the last 15 years.
– Huug van den Dool, Climate Prediction Center, NCEP, College Park, MD
Now that weather and climate science is producing ever larger and richer data sets, the topic
of pattern extraction and interpretation has become an essential part. This book provides an
up-to-date overview of the latest techniques and developments in this area.
– Maarten Ambaum, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, UK
The text is very ambitious. It makes considerable effort to collect together a number
of classical methods for data analysis, as well as newly emerging ones addressing the
challenges of the modern huge data sets. There are not many books covering such a
wide spectrum of techniques. In this respect, the book is a valuable companion for many
researchers working in the field of climate/weather data analysis and mining. The author
deserves congratulations and encouragement for his enormous work.
– Nickolay Trendafilov, Open University, Milton Keynes
This nicely and expertly written book covers a lot of ground, ranging from classical
linear pattern identification techniques to more modern machine learning methodologies,
all illustrated with examples from weather and climate science. It will be very valuable both
as a tutorial for graduate and postgraduate students and as a reference text for researchers
and practitioners in the field.
– Frank Kwasniok, College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences,
University of Exeter
xi
We will show them Our signs in the horizons and within
themselves until it becomes clear to them that it is the truth
Holy Quran Ch. 51, V. 53
Acknowledgements
This text is a collection of work I have been conducting over the years on weather
and climate data analysis, in collaboration with colleagues, complemented with
other methods from the literature. I am especially grateful to all my teachers,
colleagues and students, who contributed directly or indirectly to this work. I would
like to thank, in particular, Zoubeida Bargaoui, Bernard Legras, Keith Haines, Ian
Jolliffe, David B. Stephenson, Nickolay Trendafilov, Christian Franzke, Thomas
Önskog, Carlos Pires, Tim Woollings, Klaus Fraedrich, Toshihiko Hirooka, Grant
Branstator, Lesley Gray, Alan O’Neill, Waheed Iqbal, Andrew Turner, Andy Heaps,
Amro Elfeki, Ahmed El-Hames, Huug van den Dool, Léon Chafik and all my MISU
colleagues, and many other colleagues I did not mention by name. I acknowledge the
support of Stockholm University and the Springer team, in particular Robert Doe,
executive editor, and Neelofar Yasmeen, production coordinator, for their support
and encouragement.
xiii
Exploring the Variety of Random
Documents with Different Content
“Two sub-heads or none” is the rule in some offices. A sub-head is
based on the paragraph immediately following.
CAPITALIZATION
Type, in the printer’s vernacular, is upper case (capital letters) and
lower case (small letters). A word that is capitalized is said to go up.
A word not capitalized is put down. When both capitals and small
letters are used in a line, it is said to be in caps and lower case
(abbreviated l. c.). A line set in capitals is all caps.
11. Don’t use stories that are not fit for any member of any family
to read. If a mob makes such a demonstration against a man
accused of criminal assault that the story has to be covered for that
feature, a mere hint will be sufficient to cover the revolting part.—
From the St. Louis Star Style-Book.
13. Don’t say “he had his arm cut off.” That means literally that he
got someone to perform the operation of cutting off his arm. Say, in
case of accident, “his arm was cut off.”
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300 persons heard the lecture.”
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documents, means a group of persons.
17. Don’t leave out essential words, trusting that the copy reader
will be able to guess what you mean. The omission of the little word
“not” may cause serious trouble. Whenever possible go over your
story carefully before turning it in.
21. Don’t fail to read your story in print and note the changes that
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according to Webster’s Dictionary, means primarily “the body of
persons who compose a community, tribe, nation or race; an
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as “the people of the United States.” “Persons” refers to individuals.
37. Don’t call the wife of Dr. Jones “Mrs. Dr. Jones.” She is simply
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“Less” refers to quantity, “fewer” to numbers.
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the audience as a unit. It is plural when you have in mind the
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