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Multiple Criteria Decision Making
Gökhan Silahtaroğlu
Hasan Dinçer
Serhat Yüksel
Series Editor
Constantin Zopounidis, School of Production Engineering and Management,
Technical University of Crete, Chania, Greece
This book series focuses on the publication of monographs and edited volumes of
wide interest for researchers and practitioners interested in the theory of multicriteria
analysis and its applications in management and engineering. The book series
publishes novel works related to the foundations and the methodological aspects
of multicriteria analysis, its applications in different areas in management and
engineering, as well as its connections with other quantitative and analytic disci-
plines. In recent years, multicriteria analysis has been widely used for decision
making purposes by institutions and enterprises. Research is also very active in the
field, with numerous publications in a wide range of publication outlets and different
domains such as operations management, environmental and energy planning,
finance and economics, marketing, engineering, and healthcare.
Serhat Yüksel
Business and Management
Istanbul Medipol University
Istanbul, Turkey
© The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland
AG 2021
This work is subject to copyright. All rights are solely and exclusively licensed by the Publisher, whether
the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of
illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and
transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by
similar or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed.
The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publication
does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant
protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use.
The publisher, the authors, and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this
book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the publisher nor the authors or
the editors give a warranty, expressed or implied, with respect to the material contained herein or for any
errors or omissions that may have been made. The publisher remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional
claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
This Springer imprint is published by the registered company Springer Nature Switzerland AG.
The registered company address is: Gewerbestrasse 11, 6330 Cham, Switzerland
Preface
This book aims to evaluate different financial issues to reach sustainable economic
development. In this context, assessments were made on 6 different important issues.
In this way, it is aimed to identify the most important issues related to financial
issues. In this process, both data science and fuzzy multi-criteria decision-making
methods were considered. In this context, decision trees, artificial neural networks,
text mining, and methods such as AHP, ANP, DEMATEL, MOORA, TOPSIS, and
VIKOR were used. The most important contribution of the study is the use of these
methods, which are frequently preferred in the literature, in the same book.
This book aims to integrate data science applications, such as web mining, text
mining, and machine learning, with different significant majors like business, health,
economics, finance, and engineering. Within this framework, different perspectives
can be taken into consideration in this study. For example, machine learning
approach can be used to analyze financial performance or big data methodology
can be considered to evaluate the efficiency of the stock exchanges. Therefore, it can
be said that this study offers a novelty by focusing on various significant majors at
the same time. As a result, it is believed that this study makes a significant
contribution to the literature.
In this book, detailed analyses are made on 6 different issues related to financial
issues. In this context, financially important issues such as profitability in the
banking sector, the factors affecting economic development, the role of the state-
ments of the politicians on the financial system, and the factors affecting the
exchange rate risk are examined. As a result of detailed analyses, development
suggestions were made for each topic. Thanks to these suggestions, it will be
possible to reach a more effective financial system and sustainable economic growth.
Therefore, this book is intended to make an important contribution to the literature.
v
Acknowledgments
The authors would like to acknowledge the help and patience of their families in this
book process. Without their support, this book would not have become a reality.
Second, the authors wish to acknowledge the valuable contributions of the
reviewers regarding the improvement of quality, coherence, and content presentation
of chapters.
In addition, the authors would also like to acknowledge the valuable help of
Mr. Serkan Eti for his significant support about machine learning system.
Gökhan Silahtaroğlu
Hasan Dinçer
Serhat Yüksel
vii
Introduction
In this book, analyses related to financial issues have been made. In this context,
assessments were made on 6 different important issues. In this way, it is aimed to
identify the most important issues related to financial issues. In this process, both
data science and fuzzy multi-criteria decision-making methods were considered. In
this context, decision trees, artificial neural networks, text mining, and methods such
as AHP, ANP, DEMATEL, MOORA, TOPSIS, and VIKOR were used. The most
important contribution of the study is the use of these methods, which are frequently
preferred in the literature, in the same book.
In the study, firstly, the factors causing crises in developing and developed
countries have been tried to be determined. In this framework, decision tree and
fuzzy DEMATEL approaches are taken into consideration. In addition, the second
chapter is related to identifying the influencing factors of economic growth for both
developing and developed economies. For this purpose, decision tree approach and
fuzzy TOPSIS methodology are considered at the same time.
On the other side, the third chapter aims to estimate the factors affecting the
profitability of the Turkish banking sector. For this purpose, 34 different variables
were firstly determined by literature review. In the first stage of the analysis, decision
trees method is applied to select the most important variables. After that, fuzzy ANP
approach is used to weight these variables. Similarly, the fourth chapter tries to
understand the role of the politicians on the macroeconomic situation of the coun-
tries. For this purpose, the tweets of Donald Trump are taken into consideration. Text
mining approach is used to evaluate these tweets and mostly used words are
identified. After that, these keywords are ranked with the help of fuzzy VIKOR
approach according to their impacts on macroeconomic performance.
In addition to them, the fifth chapter tries to understand the main influence of the
politicians’ disclosure on the stock exchange index. In this context, a machine
learning model is built in order to understand the hidden patterns behind the daily
changes (rises and falls) of Dow Jones index. Moreover, in the final chapter, it is
aimed to determine the factors affecting the exchange rate risk of companies. In this
context, firstly, articles in the ScienceDirect database that contain exchange rate risk
ix
x Introduction
in their titles, abstracts, and keywords are provided. Single, double, and triple words
were identified in 152 different studies that were published after 2018, which met the
relevant criteria. As a result of the analysis of these words, 4 different criteria that
could affect the exchange rate risk were determined. The relevant criteria were then
weighted with fuzzy AHP.
This book aims to integrate data science applications, such as web mining, text
mining, and machine learning, with different significant majors like business, health,
economics, finance, and engineering. Within this framework, different perspectives
can be taken into consideration in this study. For example, machine learning
approach can be used to analyze financial performance or big data methodology
can be considered to evaluate the efficiency of the stock exchanges. Therefore, it can
be said that this study offers a novelty by focusing on various significant majors at
the same time. As a result, it is believed that this study makes a significant
contribution to the literature.
Target audience and potential users of this book are defined below.
• Researchers
• Academicians
• Policy makers
• Government officials
• Upright students in the concerned fields
• Members of chambers of commerce and industry
• Top managers of the companies
Appendix 1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31
Appendix 2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47
3 Determining the Ways to Increase Economic Growth of Developing
and Developed Economies: An Application with Data Mining
and Fuzzy TOPSIS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55
3.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55
3.2 Literature Review . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56
3.3 An Application on Developing and Developed Economies . . . 58
3.3.1 Data Set and Variables . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58
3.3.2 Fuzzy TOPSIS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59
3.3.3 Analysis Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60
3.4 Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61
Appendix 1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62
Appendix 2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71
4 Profitability Prediction of Turkish Banking Industry:
A Comparative Analysis with Data Science and Fuzzy ANP . . . . . 77
4.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77
4.2 Literature Review . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79
4.3 An Application on Turkish Banking Industry . . . . . . . . . . . . . 80
4.3.1 Data Set and Variables . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 80
4.3.2 Fuzzy ANP . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 82
4.3.3 Analysis Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 84
4.4 Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87
Appendix 1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 88
Appendix 2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89
Analysis Details of Decision Tree Approach . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 103
5 The Influence of the Politicians on Macroeconomic Performance:
An Analysis of Donald Trump’s Tweets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 109
5.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 109
5.2 Literature Review . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 111
5.3 An Application on Donald Trump’s Tweets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 112
5.3.1 Fuzzy VIKOR . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 112
5.3.2 Analysis Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 113
5.4 Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 117
Appendix 1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 118
Appendix 2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 118
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 123
Contents xiii
financial crisis. He has more than 200 scientific articles, and lots of them are indexed
in SSCI, Scopus, and Econlit. Also, he is the editor of many books that were
published by Springer and IGI Global.
Chapter 1
Introduction to Data Science and Machine
Learning Algorithms
Abstract Data science has gained importance since available data and hardware
facilities have been ubiquitous. Algorithms to process a huge amount of data and
extract information were developed decades ago. However, due to the lack of high-
capacity computers, it was not possible to use them on real-life data and problems.
Today, from finance to medicine data science plays an important role to solve
problems. Suffice it to say, machine learning algorithms are the core of this new
phenomenon besides data itself. Artificial neural networks, deep learning, Support
Vector Machines, Decision Tree Learning Models, and related algorithms have been
used successfully and yielded very important results recently. On the other hand, text
data have also gained importance being the fuel of machine learning in data science.
Especially the emergence of social media and communication technology contrib-
uted to the popularity of texts in data science. In this chapter, concise introductions
have been given about the most popular and also successful machine learning
algorithms. This chapter will be helpful for those readers who do not have enough
information about machine learning and its algorithms.
Neural networks are a set of algorithms designed to recognize patterns, inspired from
the human brain and biological neural networks (Glorot & Bengio, 2010). They
interpret raw input by labelling or clustering them by a kind of machine perception.
Data patterns that they perceive are numerical data stored in vectors such as pictures,
sounds, text or time series, and these data need to be converted into a certain data
structure to make sense.
Artificial neural networks help us cluster and classify data in a meaningful way
that directly solves real-life problems or help us solve those problems. You can think
of them as a clustering and classification layer of the data you store and manage.
Capt. Muller.
2nd Lieut. H. Allen, Royal Air Force, son of Mr. and Mrs. E. Allen,
Gayle, Hawes, missing since August 10th, 1918, after bombing the
German lines.
Lieut. Fattorini.
Lieut. Thomas Fattorini, Royal Air Force, second son of Mr. T. Fattorini,
“Rockwood,” Skipton, fell in action on August 13th, 1918, whilst
flying over the enemy’s lines on a voluntary photographic
reconnaissance, aged 19 years.
Lieut. Barry.
Lieut. J. R. Jackman, Royal Air Force, only son of Mr. and Mrs. Joseph
Jackman, Hughenden, Long Preston, reported missing June 17th,
1918, since presumed killed. Educated at Sedbergh, he was in
business with his father as a wool merchant when the war broke
out. He volunteered and joined the Duke of Wellington’s (West
Riding) Regiment, going to France in April, 1915. He was transferred
to the R.F.C. in 1917.
Lieut. Brassington, M.M.
Lieut. W. H. Brassington, M.M., Tank Corps, eldest son of Mr. and Mrs.
T. W. Brassington, Ribble View, Settle, killed in action near Bapaume
on August 23rd, 1918.
Lieut. Thornton.
2nd Lieut. Norman Crowther, Cheshire Regiment, only son of Mr. and
Mrs. A. Crowther, “Brooklyn,” Grassington, was killed in action in
France on October 14th, 1918, only two days after his return from
leave, aged 27 years. Educated at Pannal Ash College, Harrogate, he
left there to enter the banking profession, and when war broke out
had secured a good position in the chief office, at Leeds, of the
National and Provincial Bank of England. Enlisting in 1915, he joined
the 5th Bn. The Buffs, was granted a commission in June, 1917, and
transferred to the 3rd Cheshire Regiment, and afterwards sailed for
Egypt, being one of the expedition that went to Palestine. Had it not
been for sickness, he would have been with General Allenby at his
entry to Jerusalem. He was recalled to France in May, 1918, and saw
much severe fighting in the neighbourhood of Merville, being with
the Division which was mentioned for gallantry in action. At the time
of his death he was attached to the 15th Suffolk Yeomanry. He and
one of his men were sheltering in a shell hole when a shell buried
them. When help arrived both were dead. Lieut. Crowther was
buried in a cemetery near Chateau-de-la-Valee, about 12 miles from
Lille.
2nd Lieut. Richard Welbury Shuttleworth, Royal Air Force, son of Mrs.
Shuttleworth, Beech Cliffe, Earby, was accidentally killed whilst flying
in England, on August 24th, 1918, aged 24 years.
Lieut. Lumb, M.C.
Lieut. Torney.
Lieut. T. F. H. Torney, son of Captain Hastings Torney, R.A.M.C., was a
nephew of Mrs. Sam H. Walton, Skipton, and was killed in action
September 3rd, 1918.
Lieut. Gordon Sanderson, 2nd Gurkhas, Machine Gun Section, only son
of Mr. William Sanderson, of Rathmell, Settle, was killed in action in
France. The deceased officer was 28 years of age. At the outbreak of
war, he was offered an appointment as A.D.C., but refused it, and
took charge of the Machine Gun Section of the 2nd Gurkhas. Lieut.
Sanderson was a clever architectural draughtsman, being formerly
engaged in Government work in Egypt. He subsequently worked in
Edinburgh, and later was appointed superintendent of the
Archæological Survey of the North East Provinces of India. Prior to
going to India, Lieut. Sanderson was married to Miss Cowie,
daughter of the late Mr. A. Cowie, of Mentone Gardens, Edinburgh.
2nd Lieut. Berry.
Lieut. Glibbon.
Lieut. John Bartley Glibbon, Canadian Mounted Rifles, died of wounds
in France. He was the only son of Mr. A. E. Glibbon, who was
manager of the Old Bentham Mills Spinning Co., and also manager at
Bentham Mills for the Hemp Yarn Cordage Combine before its
liquidation, and a well-known figure in Bentham. The late Lieut.
Glibborn was born at Bentham House in 1887. His mother was Miss
Baldwin, a member of as well-known Scotforth family. He emigrated
to Canada, and married a French Canadian lady who belonged to an
old French Republican family. The deceased officer obtained his early
education at Miss Wilson’s private school at Bentham, after which he
went to Ackworth Friends’ Schools, near Wakefield.
Lieut. Carruthers.
Dr. Pickles.
Dr. Phillip D. Pickles, H.M.S. “Russell,” and formerly of Earby, died in
hospital at Malta as the result of injuries received during the sinking
of his ship in the Mediterranean. A son of Dr. J. J. Pickles, Camp
Road, Leeds, he was the eldest of six brothers, all trained in the
medical profession. Deceased was a member of the Royal Naval
Volunteer Reserve, and was called up for duty on the “Russell” on
August 2nd, 1914. As Surgeon in the R.N.V.R., he took part in the
grand review at Spithead, and joined H.M.S. “Russell” on August
2nd, 1914. Dr. Pickles was one of five brothers who joined H.M.
Forces—three in the Army and two in the Navy—four of them being
medical officers. He was 33 years of age and unmarried.
Lieut. Edwards.