Assignment for trading ID-33 BCM-2
Assignment for trading ID-33 BCM-2
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF AN
INDUSTRY, FUNDAMENTAL AND
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF 3
COMPANIES UNDER THAT
INDUSTRY.
ASSIGNMENT
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF HEALTHCARE
INDUSTRY
INTRODUCTION
Healthcare has become one of India’s largest sectors, both in terms of revenue and
employment. Healthcare comprises hospitals, medical devices, clinical trials, outsourcing,
telemedicine, medical tourism, health insurance and medical equipment. The Indian
healthcare sector is growing at a brisk pace due to its strengthening coverage, services,
and increasing expenditure by public as well as private players.
India’s healthcare delivery system is categorised into two major components - public and
private. The government, i.e., the public healthcare system, comprises limited secondary
and tertiary care institutions in key cities and focuses on providing basic healthcare
facilities in the form of Primary Healthcare Centers (PHCs) in rural areas. The private sector
provides the majority of secondary, tertiary, and quaternary care institutions with a major
concentration in metros, tier-I, and tier-II cities.
India's competitive advantage lies in its large pool of well-trained medical professionals.
India is also cost-competitive compared to its peers in Asia and Western countries. The
cost of surgery in India is about one-tenth of that in the US or Western Europe. The low
cost of medical services has resulted in a rise in the country’s medical tourism, attracting
patients from across the world. Moreover, India has emerged as a hub for R&D activities for
international players due to its relatively low cost of clinical research.
MARKETSIZE
• The Indian healthcare sector is expected to record a three-fold rise, growing at a
CAGR of 22% between 2016–22 to reach US$ 372 billion in 2022 from US$ 110 billion in
2016. By FY22, Indian healthcare infrastructure is expected to reach US$ 349.1 billion.
The healthcare sector is expected to generate 27 lakh jobs in India between 2017-22,
over 5 Lakh jobs per year.
• India’s public expenditure on healthcare touched 2.1 % of GDP in FY23 and 2.2% in
FY22, against 1.6% in FY21, as per the Economic Survey 2022-23.
• The Indian medical tourism market was valued at US$ 2.89 billion in 2020 and is
expected to reach US$ 13.42 billion by 2026. According to India Tourism Statistics at
a Glance 2020 report, close to 697,300 foreign tourists came for medical treatment
in India in FY19. India has been ranked tenth in the Medical Tourism Index (MTI) for
2020-21 out of 46 destinations by the Medical Tourism Association. With US$ 5-6
billion size of Medical value travel (MVT) and 500000 International patients annually,
India is among the global leader destinations for international patients seeking
advanced treatment.
• The e-health market size is estimated to reach US$ 10.6 billion by 2025.
As per information provided to the Lok Sabha by the Minister of Health & Family Welfare,
Dr. Bharati Pravin Pawar, the doctor population ratio in the country is 1:854, assuming 80%
availability of 12.68 lakh registered allopathic doctors and 5.65 lakh AYUSH doctors.
INVESTMENT/DEVELOPMENTS:
Between April 2000-September 2023, the FDI inflow for the drugs and pharmaceuticals
sector stood at US$ 21.58 billion, according to the data released by Department for
Promotion of Industry and Internal Trade (DPIIT). Inflows in sectors such as hospitals and
diagnostic centres and medical and surgical appliances stood at US$ 9.48 billion and US$
3.22 billion, respectively, between April 2000-September 2023.
During 2022-23 (up to December 2022) Foreign Direct Investment, (FDI) inflow in India
stood at US$ 36,746 million. Some of the recent developments in the Indian healthcare
industry are as follows:
• As of August 1, 2023, a total of 24.33 crore Ayushman cards have been created. To prevent,
detect, and deter healthcare fraud and to ensure that eligible beneficiaries receive adequate
treatment, the Government of India is using Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning
(ML). As on October, 2023, a total of 26 crore Ayushman cards have been created.
• As of February 20, 2023, more than 220.63 crore COVID-19 vaccine doses have been
administered across the country. While as of May 11, 2023, more than 2.20 billion COVID-19
vaccine doses have been administered across the country.
• As of July 15, 2023, India has exported 30.12 crore vaccine doses.
• In July 2022, the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) released standard treatment
guidelines for 51 common illnesses across 11 specialities to assist.
• In January 2022, Phase 3 trials commenced of India's first intranasal vaccine against COVID-
19 which is being developed by Bharat Biotech, in conjunction with the Washington
University School of Medicine in St Louis, the US.
• The number of policies issued to women in FY21 stood at 93 lakh, with one out of every three
life insurance policies in FY21 sold to a woman.
• In December 2021, Eka Care became the first CoWIN-approved organization in India,
through which users could book their vaccination slot, download their certificate, and even
create their Health IDs.
• In November 2021, Aster DM Healthcare announced that it is planning Rs. 900 crore (US$
120.97 million) capital expenditure over the next three years to expand its presence in India,
as it looks at increasing the share of revenue from the country to 40% of the total revenue by
2025.
• In September 2021, a Russian-made COVID-19 vaccine, Sputnik Light received permission for
Phase 3 trials in India.
ROAD AHEAD
India’s healthcare sector is extremely diversified and is full of opportunities in every
segment, which includes providers, payers, and medical technology. With the increase in
the competition, businesses are looking to explore the latest dynamics and trends which
will have a positive impact on their business. The hospital industry in India is forecast to
increase to Rs. 8.6 trillion (US$ 132.84 billion) by FY22 from Rs. 4 trillion (US$ 61.79 billion) in
FY17 at a CAGR of 16–17%.
India is a land full of opportunities for players in the medical devices industry. The country
has also become one of the leading destinations for high-end diagnostic services with
tremendous capital investment for advanced diagnostic facilities, thus catering to a
greater proportion of the population. Besides, Indian
medical service consumers have become more conscious
towards their healthcare upkeep. Rising income levels, an
ageing population, growing health awareness and a
changing attitude towards preventive healthcare are
expected to boost healthcare services demand in the
future. Greater penetration of health insurance aided the
rise in healthcare spending, a trend likely to intensify in
the coming decade.
• Delhi
• Mumbai
• Hyderabad
• Kolkata
• Chennai
• Bengaluru
• Ahmedabad
Headquartered in Mumbai, Abbott India Limited, a publicly listed company and a subsidiary of Abbott
Laboratories, takes pride in offering high-quality trusted medicines in multiple therapeutic categories
such as women's health, gastroenterology, cardiology, metabolic disorders and primary care.
One of India's fastest-growing pharmaceutical companies, Abbott India Limited is part of Abbott's
global pharmaceutical business in India.
they have expertise across product development, manufacturing, sales and customer service and are
dedicated to providing high-quality, reliable products with the expert clinical support our customers
need.
Abbott India Limited believes in providing quality healthcare through a mix of global and local
products for people in India. Our in-house development and medical teams undertake product and
clinical development tailored to the unique needs of the Indian market. their trained personnel are
dedicated to ensuring compliance with international quality standards. In
Fundamental analysis:
Time series data for 10 years in relation to sales and profit.
SALES GROWTH
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Sales Growth
PROFIT GROWTH
1000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
PRIORITY: intentionally designing access and affordability into many of our life-changing
technologies and products, and breaking down barriers that prevent people from getting the
care they need.
GOAL: Protect a healthy environment
• Reduce absolute Scope 1 and 2 carbon emissions by 30% from 2018 baseline by the end of
2030, consistent with the objectives of the Science Based Targets initiative (SBTi).
• Implement accredited water stewardship management practices in more than 75% of all
manufacturing sites operating in water-stressed areas.
• Work with 50 key suppliers in high water-stressed areas to reduce water quality and quantity
risks to Abbott and the community.
• Reduce waste impacts using a circular economy approach to achieve and maintain at least a
90% waste diversion rate.
• Engage with key suppliers to reduce the environmental impact of materials sent to Abbott
that become waste in our operations and develop and track supplier waste diversion
initiatives.
Comparative statement:
• The company has shown a good profit growth of 16.99% for the Past 3 years.
• Company has been maintaining healthy ROE of 29.97% over the past 3 years.
• Company has been maintaining healthy ROCE of 40.33% over the past 3 years.
• Company is virtually debt free.
• Company has a healthy Interest coverage ratio of 80.66.
Limitations
• The company has shown a poor revenue growth of 9.33% for the Past 3 years.
• The company is trading at a high PE of 47.62.
• The company is trading at a high EV/EBITDA of 32.53.
• The company's revenue from operations rose nearly 9% to ₹1,437 crore compared to ₹1,322.2
crore in the corresponding period of the previous fiscal year.
year 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
FCF(Crore) 76 137 204 226 273 494 534 628 837 947 1064
Calculation:
𝑭𝑪𝑭(𝟐𝟎𝟐𝟑)∗(𝟏+𝒈)
Terminal value=
𝒅𝒊𝒔𝒄𝒐𝒖𝒏𝒕𝒆𝒅 𝒓𝒂𝒕𝒆−𝒈
𝟏𝟎𝟔𝟒∗(𝟏+.𝟎𝟒)
Terminal value=
𝟎.𝟏𝟎−𝟎.𝟎𝟒
𝟏𝟎𝟔𝟒∗𝟏.𝟎𝟒
Terminal value=
𝟎.𝟎𝟔
We'll discount each year's FCF to their present value using the discount rate (WACC) of 10%.
𝑭𝑪𝑭
PV=(𝟏+𝑫𝒊𝒔𝒄𝒐𝒖𝒏𝒕 𝒓𝒂𝒕𝒆)𝒏
Calculated values:
year 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
FCF(Crore) 76 137 204 226 273 494 534 628 837 947 1064
PV (Crore) 62 100 133 133 146 238 233 247 297 304 310
PV Total = 62 + 100 + 133 + 133 + 146 + 238 + 233 + 247 + 297 + 304 + 310 = 2,303
Company information
Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd., incorporated in 1983, is a global specialty generic pharmaceuticals
company with a presence in over 150 countries. The company is headquartered in Mumbai, India, and has
operations in three primary lines of business: branded formulations, specialty generics, and active
pharmaceutical ingredients (API).
Sun Pharma's branded formulations include products for cardiovascular, central nervous system,
gastroenterology, ophthalmology, and dermatology. Sun Pharma's specialty generics include injectables,
inhalants, and complex products. Sun Pharma's API portfolio includes products for a range of therapeutic areas,
including cardiovascular, central nervous system, gastroenterology, and dermatology.
Sun Pharma's top products include Modalert, a generic version of Modafinil for treating sleep disorders; Glocip, a
generic version of Glipizide for treating diabetes; and Doxicip, a generic version of Doxycycline for treating
bacterial infections. Sun Pharma's popular brands include Revital, a multivitamin supplement; Tazret, a topical
retinoid for treating psoriasis; and Olmecip, a generic version of Olmesartan for treating hypertension.
Fundamental analysis:
Time series data for 10 years in relation to sales and profit.
50,000
45,000
40,000
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
9,000
8,000
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
While globally pharma stocks had a bull run, particularly since the onset of Covid, they faced multiple
challenges. These include postponement of surgeries and critical treatments and supply related
bottlenecks for APIs. Since most of these issues have been resolved in the industry including Sun
Pharma, its prospects appear good in the coming years.
Strengthening specialty products pipeline:
There is an increasing demand for chronic conditions and ailments. The emergence of such diseases is
more frequent in recent years due to changes in our lifestyle. This is where specialty segment comes
into play. And Sun Pharma has multiple products lined up under this segment.
• Expansion in APIs: There is an emerging R&D trend in APIs to explore complex APIs used in the
novel formulation and niche therapeutic areas. This bodes well for Sun Pharma as its R&D is
one of the competitors in the industry.
• Sun Pharma has a better brand coverage compared to other companies in the industry. It is
among the top brands prescribed by doctors.
• The string of acquisitions made by the companies appears to be benefiting the companies. And
according to analysts, this provides long-term growth visibility, particularly in specialty
segment.
• Sun Pharma spend about 6.5% of its revenue on R&D and it could aid in its growth in the
coming years. For instance, R&D efforts in innovative therapies are picking interest globally,
like gene and cell therapy is another area.
Comparative statement:
Strengths
• The company has shown a good revenue growth of 18.42% for the Past 3 years.
• Company’s PEG ratio is 0.21.
• The company has an efficient Cash Conversion Cycle of -18.65 days.
• The company has a good cash flow management; CFO/PAT stands at 1.59.
• The company has a high promoter holding of 54.48%.
Limitations
• The company has shown a poor profit growth of -19.25% for the Past 3 years.
• Company has a poor ROE of 3.30% over the past 3 years.
• Company has a poor ROCE of 4.31% over the past 3 years
• Tax rate is low at 2.89.
• The company is trading at a high PE of 376.47.
year 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Calculation:
𝑭𝑪𝑭(𝟐𝟎𝟐𝟑)∗(𝟏+𝒈)
Terminal value=𝒅𝒊𝒔𝒄𝒐𝒖𝒏𝒕𝒆𝒅 𝒓𝒂𝒕𝒆−𝒈
𝟏𝟎𝟕∗(𝟏+.𝟎𝟒)
Terminal value= 𝟎.𝟏𝟎−𝟎.𝟎𝟒
𝟏𝟎𝟕∗𝟏.𝟎𝟒
Terminal value= 𝟎.𝟎𝟔
Calculated values:
year 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
PV (Crore) 0.9 -20 -18.2 50.9 31.1 -67.3 44.2 3.2 27.1 -28.8 35.2
PV Total = 0.9 -20.7 -18.2+ 50.9 + 31.1 -67.3+ 44.2 + 3.2 + 27.1 -28.8+ 35.5 = 57.9
Price history:
3 Apollo Hospitals Enterprise Ltd.
Apollo Hospitals Enterprise Ltd. is an Indian healthcare provider founded in 1983. It is the first corporate
hospital in India and is the largest healthcare group in Asia. The company was incorporated in 1983 and
operates in the healthcare industry, providing a wide range of services including medical care, diagnostics,
and pharmacy services. It also provides healthcare solutions such as telemedicine, health insurance, and
medical tourism. The company operates over 70 hospitals in India and abroad, and over 2000 pharmacies.
The company's top products include diagnostics, medical care, pharmacy services, and health insurance.
Apollo Hospitals Enterprise Ltd. is also known for its popular brands, such as Apollo Pharmacy, Apollo
Cradle, Apollo Spectra, Apollo Diagnostics, and Apollo Clinics.
Fundamental analysis:
Time series data for 10 years in relation to sales and profit.
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
• Apollo Hospitals, led by MD Suneeta Reddy, announced a ₹3,000 crore investment over three years
for expansion, including 2,000 additional beds. Reddy highlights an ₹8 crore investment in an AI-
precision oncology centre in Bangalore, with plans for 25 more nationwide, amid positive
occupancy trends.
RATIO ANALYSIS (PAST 5 YEARS)
KEY FINANCIAL RATIOS OF APOLLO HOSPITALS Mar-23 Mar-22 Mar-21 Mar-20 Mar-19
ENTERPRISES (in Rs. Cr.)
PER SHARE RATIOS
Basic EPS (Rs.) 75.45 46.25 7.5 33.8 21.76
LIQUIDITY RATIOS
Current Ratio (X) 2.53 2.91 2 1.19 1.23
Quick Ratio (X) 2.46 2.78 1.86 0.83 0.88
VALUATION RATIOS
Enterprise Value (Cr.) 63,411.77 66,410.98 43,300.90 18,448.97 19,761.95
EV/Net Operating Revenue (X) 9.72 10.89 4.73 1.88 2.37
EV/EBITDA (X) 34.59 45.29 44.85 12.94 19.18
Retention Ratios (%) 76.47 93.52 63.52 72.63 77.02
Price/BV (X) 8.95 10.63 8.03 3.97 4.37
Price/Net Operating Revenue 9.5 10.65 4.56 1.62 2.04
Earnings Yield 0.02 0.01 0 0.03 0.02
Strengths
• The company has shown a good profit growth of 32.14% for the Past 3 years.
• Company’s PEG ratio is 0.96.
• The company has an efficient Cash Conversion Cycle of -73.27 days.
• Company has a healthy liquidity position with current ratio of 2.53.
• The company has a good cash flow management; CFO/PAT stands at 2.22.
Limitations
• The company has shown a poor revenue growth of -12.66% for the Past 3 years.
• Tax rate is low at 11.63.
• The company is trading at a high PE of 85.75.
• The company is trading at a high EV/EBITDA of 44.74.
Comparative statement:
• Shares of Apollo Hospitals on Monday fell up to 8% to the day's low at Rs 5,738 on BSE after the
company's subsidiary Apollo HealthCo (AHL) agreed to sell a 16.8% stake for Rs 2,475 core ($300mn)
to Advent International (Advent) and merge promoter group entity Keimed Pvt Ltd (Keimed) into AHL
in a phased manner.
•
Apollo 24/7 is valued at an enterprise value of Rs 14,478 crores. Keimed is valued at an enterprise
value of Rs 8,003 crores. Following merger, Keimed shareholders would hold a maximum of 25.7%
stake in the combined entity, while AHEL would continue to remain the largest controlling shareholder
with at least 59.2% stake
year 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Calculation:
𝐹𝐶𝐹(2023)∗(1+𝑔)
Terminal value=
𝑑𝑖𝑠𝑐𝑜𝑢𝑛𝑡𝑒𝑑 𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑒−𝑔
−113∗(1+.02)
Terminal value=
0.10−0.02
−113∗1.02
Terminal value=
0.08
−115.26
Terminal value=
0.08
We'll discount each year's FCF to their present value using the discount rate (WACC) of 10%.
𝐹𝐶𝐹
PV=
(1+𝐷𝑖𝑠𝑐𝑜𝑢𝑛𝑡 𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑒)𝑛
Calculated values:
year 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
FCF(Crore) 83 -46 103 39 -52 24 -20 94 44 158 -113
PV (Crore) 66.37 -30.89 61.43 20.74 -26.06 10.73 -7.73 32.92 14.5 48.66 -33.58
Step 4: calculating Intrinsic value
PV Total = 66.37 - 30.89 + 61.43 + 20.74 - 26.06 + 10.73 - 7.73 + 32.92 + 14.5 + 48.66 - 33.58 = 157.52
Moving Averages
Moving Averages
Name Value Action
Exponential Moving Average (10) 26138.19 Buy
Simple Moving Average (10) 26013.67 Buy
Exponential Moving Average (20) 26382.59 Buy
Simple Moving Average (20) 26370.29 Buy
Exponential Moving Average (30) 26592.6 Sell
Simple Moving Average (30) 26799.57 Sell
Exponential Moving Average (50) 26688.47 Sell
Simple Moving Average (50) 27401.04 Sell
Exponential Moving Average (100) 26159.52 Buy
Simple Moving Average (100) 26100.93 Buy
Exponential Moving Average (200) 24965.82 Buy
Simple Moving Average (200) 24664.19 Buy
Ichimoku Base Line (9, 26, 52, 26) 26739.38 Neutral
Volume Weighted Moving Average (20) 26293.55 Buy
Hull Moving Average (9) 26131.06 Buy
APOLLO INDIA LTD - RETURNS COMPARISON
Stock Range:
(2) Sun pharmaceutical